WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we are opening

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a file that sits right at the intersection of

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high finance, political corruption, war, and

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frankly, the absolute darkest sides of human

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nature. It really is an incredible story. It

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has everything you could want. It's got a mania

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that gripped an entire nation. It involves the

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most famous scientist in history losing his shirt.

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And it's about a company that became, for a time,

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the most valuable entity in Britain. Despite,

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and this is the key part, isn't it? Despite having

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almost no realistic prospect of doing the business

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it was supposedly famous for. Exactly. That's

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the core paradox of the whole affair. We're talking,

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of course, about the South Sea Company and the

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infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720. The Bubble

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of 1720, yes. A moment that, you know, completely

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changed British history. And I think for most

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people, when they hear South Sea Bubble, they

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think, OK, a bunch of people in wigs bought some

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stuff. The price went up. The price went down.

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People lost money. It sounds like a pretty standard

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stock market crash. Right. It gets lumped in

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with tulip mania. You know, it's one of those

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crazy things people did in the past. It's almost

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treated like a historical curiosity. But looking

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at the sources we have today, which is this really

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deep dive into the company's history, its founding,

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the actual trading records and the parliamentary

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inquiries that followed. This isn't just a financial

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story. Not by a long shot. Not at all. I mean,

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the finance is just the engine. The story is

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about what that engine was running on. It's a

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story about the slave trade. It's a story about

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bribery that went all the way up to the king's

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inner circle, even his mistresses. And it's a

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story that actually reshaped the British government

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for a century. It really did. And to understand

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the scale of this, you have to realize that this

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wasn't just a bad day on the market. This was

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a national trauma. It was an event that ruined

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thousands and thousands of families from, you

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know, aristocrats down to their servants. And

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it implicated the highest levels of government.

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It brought down the chancellor, the exchequer.

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And it led Isaac Newton, the man who literally

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discovered gravity, the smartest person of his

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age, to say that famous line, I can calculate

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the movement of the stars, but not the madness

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of men. Which is just so telling, isn't it? If

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Newton can get swept up in it, what chance did

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anyone else have? None at all. So our mission

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today is to unpack this. How did a company with

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no real business become the most valuable thing

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in Britain? Why did the government not only let

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it happen, but actively help it happen? Right.

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And this was the part that surprised me when

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I first looked into it. How on earth did this

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company survive for another hundred years after

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the crash? That's the crazy part. I always assumed

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it just vanished. Poof. Gone. No, it didn't.

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It stuck around like a ghost, haunting the London

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markets for over a century. A zombie company.

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A zombie company. I like that. So let's rewind.

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Let's set the stage. We are in the early 18th

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century. What is the vibe in Britain? What's

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going on? The vibe is expensive. To put it mildly,

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we need to go back to about 1710, 1711. Britain

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is a rising power, no doubt, but it is under

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immense, and I mean immense, financial strain.

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Wars are not cheap. No. And Britain was fighting

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two of them at the same time. You had the War

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of the Spanish Succession, which was basically

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a world war of its time. It dragged in France,

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Spain, the Holy Roman Empire. Everyone. A massive

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continent spanning conflict. And at the same

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time, you had the Great Northern War simmering

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away in the background, which tied up resources

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and attention. So the government is just hemorrhaging

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money. To pay for soldiers, ships, supplies.

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All of it. Exactly. And the way they had been

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paying for it was a complete mess. The sources

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described the national debt not as one single

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thing, but as a chaotic piecemeal arrangement.

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You had different government departments just

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borrowing money on their own terms. So there

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was no central treasury, no single credit card

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statement for the country. Precisely. It was

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total chaos. The Navy would issue these things

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called Navy tickets to sailors instead of cash.

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So you're a sailor, you've been at sea for two

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years, you get back to port, and you're handed

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a piece of paper. An IOU from the government.

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An IOU. And if you need to buy bread or pay your

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rent, you have to sell that ticket to a loan

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shark on the street for maybe half its face value.

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The government's credit was effectively junk.

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So nobody trusts that these IOUs will ever be

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paid in full. Absolutely not. It was a crisis

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of confidence. And in 1710, a man named Robert

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Harley becomes the chancellor of the Exchequer.

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He's the guy in charge of the money. And he looks

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at the books and he realizes they are in a very...

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very deep hole how deep the government owed about

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nine million pounds in this kind of unsecured

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floating debt which in 1710 money is an astronomical

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sum it would be like trillions today it felt

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completely insurmountable it's a huge number

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and the really scary part was there was no income

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allocated to pay it off it was just this Big,

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scary number hanging over the country's head,

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getting bigger all the time. Now, normally, if

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the government needed money or needed to manage

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its finances, they would go to the Bank of England,

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right? You'd think so. The Bank of England was

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already around at this point. Yeah, it was established

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about 16 years prior in 1694. But here's where

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the political friction comes in. And this is

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so crucial to why the South Sea Company even

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exists. Right. It's not just a financial story.

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It's a political one. The Bank of England was

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a Whig institution. The Whigs were one of the

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two main political parties. Robert Harley, our

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new chancellor, he was a Tory. Ah, so you have

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this intense political rivalry baked into the

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financial crisis. It's a perfect storm. Harley

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cannot go cap in hand to the Bank of England

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because he doesn't want to give his political

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enemies more power, more leverage over the government.

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They would have him over a barrel. So he needs

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an alternative. He needs a Tory bank, a financial

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institution that is loyal to his party and his

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government. He needs to create a counterweight.

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a new way to fund this debt that completely bypasses

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the Whigs, and that's where the schemers come

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in. Enter John Blunt. Now, Blunt is a fascinating

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character. He isn't some highborn aristocrat.

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He's a scrivener, a professional writer, a dealer

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in financial paper. He was a director of a very

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ominously named outfit called the Hollow Sword

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Blade Company. The Hollow Swordblade Company.

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That sounds like a front for a pirate crew or

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an assassin's guild. It sounds incredibly ominous,

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doesn't it? And it sort of was. It was originally

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a company that, yes, made swordblades. But by

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this time, under Blunt's guidance, it had pivoted.

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It had effectively become an unofficial bank.

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A shadow bank, really. A bit of a rogue operation.

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Very much so. Blunt was a financial engineer.

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He was one of those guys who understood how to

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move paper around to create value or at least

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the appearance of value. He was a master of the

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game. So Harley, the politician, and Blunt, the

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financier, get together. They look at this nine

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million pound debt mountain. What is their big

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idea? The idea is what we now call a debt for

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equity swap. This is the core mechanic you absolutely

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have to understand to get the South Sea bubble.

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It sounds technical, but it's actually a brilliant

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piece of financial sleight of hand. OK, let's

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unpack this. Break it down for us. How does it

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work? OK, so imagine you are a creditor. You're

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holding one of those government IOUs, one of

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those Navy tickets. The government owes you 100

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pounds. But because everyone knows the government

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is broke, if you tried to sell that IOU on the

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street, maybe you'd only get 55 pounds for it.

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It's trading at a huge discount. Because nobody

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thinks I'm actually getting my full 100 pounds

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back. I'm holding a toxic asset. You're nervous.

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You'll never see the full amount. So Harley and

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Blunt come to you and say, tell you what. Turn

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in that IOU to our new company, the South Sea

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Company. We will take that dodgy debt off your

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hands. Okay. In exchange, they say, we will give

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you shares in our brand new South Sea Company,

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and we will value your debt at the full 100 pounds.

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So I trade my dodgy government debt, which is

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worth maybe 55 quid, for 100 pounds worth of

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stock in this new shiny corporation. On paper,

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I've just doubled my money. Exactly. And what

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happens on the government side is that instead

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of owing money to thousands of angry individual

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creditors like you, the government now owes all

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that money, the whole $9 million to one single

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entity, the South Sea Company. It consolidates

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the debt. It's much cleaner for the government

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to manage. Much cleaner. And the government agrees

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to pay the company a fixed interest rate on that

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total debt every single year. They promise them...

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568 ,279 town annually, which works out to 6

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% interest plus a little extra for expenses.

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Okay, so the company gets this steady, reliable

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stream of income from the government, basically

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from tax revenue, which they can then use to

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pay dividends to their new shareholders. Correct.

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It's a beautiful solution in theory. It takes

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thousands of angry creditors and turns them into

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happy shareholders in a patriotic new venture.

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For the government, it locks in the debt at a

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manageable interest rate. It cleans up the books.

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But 6 % isn't exactly a get -rich -quick scheme.

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That's just a bond yield to create excitement,

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to get people to actually hand over their debt,

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to create a bubble. You need a story. You need

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a kicker. And that is where the South Sea part

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of the name comes in. That was the genius of

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the marketing. To make these shares irresistible,

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the government granted this new company a monopoly

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on all trade with the South Seas. The South Seas,

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which at the time meant South America. All of

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it. The entire Spanish Empire in the Americas.

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The land of gold, silver, the Incas. El Dorado.

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Exactly. Potosi, the Silver Mountains. In the

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popular British imagination, South America was

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just a treasure chest waiting to be opened. The

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public looked at the Spanish Empire and thought,

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if we can just get a piece of that action, we

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will all be millionaires. It's a fantastic story,

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but there was a catch, a pretty significant catch.

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A massive, glaring catch that somehow everyone

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decided to ignore. Who controlled South America

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in 1711? Spain and Portugal. And who was Britain

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in the middle of a brutal, expensive war with?

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Spain. There you go. So the government is granting

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a monopoly on trade with a continent that is

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entirely controlled by an enemy nation that you

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are currently fighting a war against. So the

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actual realistic prospect of any trade happening

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was zero. In the immediate term, absolutely zero.

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The founders, Harley and Blunt and the rest,

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they knew this perfectly well. The source material

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is very clear on this. They knew there was no

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money for trade. They knew the ships couldn't

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sail. So what was the point? The objective was

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never really about trade, not at first. The objective

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was to consolidate the debt, make the founders

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wealthy through fees and their own stock holdings,

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and secure a powerful position with the government.

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The trade with South America part was just the

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shiny object, the marketing hook to dangle in

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front of the public. It's the wrapper on the

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product, the sizzle, not the steak. It's pure

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marketing. But you know what? People bought it.

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They were willing to suspend their disbelief.

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They thought, well, the war has to end eventually.

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And when it does, we have the monopoly. They

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were buying the future potential, not the present

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reality. And to be fair, the war did end. The

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Treaty of Utrecht was signed in 1713. It did.

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Peace broke out. So now the South Sea Company

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says, OK. Time to cash in on our monopoly. And

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this is where we get into the grim reality of

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what this business actually was. Because when

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they finally got permission to trade, the big

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prize wasn't for gold or silver or tobacco. No.

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And this is the dark heart of the story that

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often gets glazed over when people talk about

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the financial side of it. The main prize that

00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:27.159
Britain won in the peace treaty, which was then

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handed directly to the South Sea Company, was

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the Asiento de Negros. The Asiento. The Asiento,

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which was a contract. a 30 -year monopoly contract

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that gave the South Sea Company the exclusive

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right to supply enslaved African people to the

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Spanish colonies. We really need to pause on

00:11:44.429 --> 00:11:46.389
this because often when we talk about financial

00:11:46.389 --> 00:11:48.590
bubbles, it's about abstract things, you know,

00:11:48.590 --> 00:11:51.570
tulips or dot coms or cryptocurrencies. This

00:11:51.570 --> 00:11:54.870
bubble at its core was built on the back of the

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transatlantic slave trade. Absolutely. That was

00:11:57.289 --> 00:11:59.330
the business model. The contract allowed them

00:11:59.330 --> 00:12:02.169
to supply 4 ,800 enslaved people per year. That

00:12:02.169 --> 00:12:04.889
was their quota. That was the asset that underpinned

00:12:04.889 --> 00:12:07.370
the company's value. And were they expected to

00:12:07.370 --> 00:12:09.230
just ship them and sell them? Was that the whole

00:12:09.230 --> 00:12:11.509
deal? That was the main part. They were also

00:12:11.509 --> 00:12:13.990
allowed to send one ship, just one per year,

00:12:14.110 --> 00:12:16.590
which was called the annual ship. It was initially

00:12:16.590 --> 00:12:20.750
500 tons, later upgraded to 650. And that ship

00:12:20.750 --> 00:12:23.620
could trade general goods, you know. British

00:12:23.620 --> 00:12:27.159
wool and cloth at the big trade fairs in Portobello

00:12:27.159 --> 00:12:30.720
and Veracruz. So to be clear, the entire legal

00:12:30.720 --> 00:12:33.419
business foundation for what becomes this massive

00:12:33.419 --> 00:12:36.799
bubble is the trafficking of 4 ,800 human beings

00:12:36.799 --> 00:12:40.059
and one ship of textiles per year. That's it.

00:12:40.200 --> 00:12:42.460
That's the whole thing. And even that business

00:12:42.460 --> 00:12:44.580
was a logistical and financial nightmare for

00:12:44.580 --> 00:12:47.139
them. The company had set up these trading posts,

00:12:47.340 --> 00:12:49.240
which they called factories, which were really

00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:51.360
holding prisons in places like Cartagena, Panama

00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:53.100
and Buenos Aires. And they had to source the

00:12:53.100 --> 00:12:55.139
people themselves. No, they contracted that out.

00:12:55.220 --> 00:12:57.460
They made a deal with the Royal African Company,

00:12:57.659 --> 00:12:59.899
which was the main British entity involved in

00:12:59.899 --> 00:13:02.320
the slave trade on the African coast, to actually

00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:04.700
source the enslaved people for them. And the

00:13:04.700 --> 00:13:07.159
source material we have mentions the human cost

00:13:07.159 --> 00:13:10.000
here pretty starkly. It does. It gives the cold,

00:13:10.059 --> 00:13:12.600
hard numbers. It estimates that over the course

00:13:12.600 --> 00:13:15.360
of roughly 25 years, the company transported

00:13:15.360 --> 00:13:18.279
somewhere in the region of 34 ,000 people. 34

00:13:18.279 --> 00:13:21.460
,000. And of those 34 ,000 who were forced onto

00:13:21.460 --> 00:13:24.840
the ships, about 30 ,000 survived the voyage.

00:13:25.139 --> 00:13:28.039
So 4 ,000 people died on the ships, a mortality

00:13:28.039 --> 00:13:32.940
rate over 10%. Yes, an 11 % mortality rate. The

00:13:32.940 --> 00:13:35.120
source notes in a really chilling phrase that

00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:37.879
this was considered relatively low for the middle

00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.259
passage at the time, which is a horrific statistic

00:13:40.259 --> 00:13:42.840
in itself. Right. But it represents thousands

00:13:42.840 --> 00:13:46.240
of lives lost, treated as nothing more than inventory

00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:49.259
spoilage on a corporate balance sheet. And from

00:13:49.259 --> 00:13:51.440
that cold, hard business perspective, which is

00:13:51.440 --> 00:13:53.850
how these directors were looking at it. Was it

00:13:53.850 --> 00:13:56.330
at least profitable? Were they making money from

00:13:56.330 --> 00:13:58.570
this horrific trade? This is one of the great

00:13:58.570 --> 00:14:01.110
ironies of the entire story. No. It wasn't. For

00:14:01.110 --> 00:14:02.970
the most part, it was largely unprofitable. They

00:14:02.970 --> 00:14:04.710
were committing these atrocities, and they weren't

00:14:04.710 --> 00:14:06.750
even making good money on it. How is that possible?

00:14:06.909 --> 00:14:08.669
If they had a monopoly, where did all the money

00:14:08.669 --> 00:14:11.909
go? Friction. And a terrible deal structure.

00:14:12.549 --> 00:14:14.750
First, the Spanish authorities on the ground

00:14:14.750 --> 00:14:17.629
hated them. Remember, Britain and Spain were

00:14:17.629 --> 00:14:21.129
bitter enemies five minutes ago. Now these British

00:14:21.129 --> 00:14:23.509
traders are showing up in their ports, so the

00:14:23.509 --> 00:14:26.750
Spanish impose heavy import duties. The company

00:14:26.750 --> 00:14:29.210
had to pay a tax on every single slave they brought

00:14:29.210 --> 00:14:31.370
in. Okay, so that eats into the margins. Big

00:14:31.370 --> 00:14:34.250
time. Plus, the ownership structure of the Asiento

00:14:34.250 --> 00:14:36.549
contract itself was terrible for the company.

00:14:36.730 --> 00:14:39.570
Who else was involved? Well, under the terms

00:14:39.570 --> 00:14:42.289
of the treaty, they had to give 25 % of all their

00:14:42.289 --> 00:14:44.669
profits to the King of Spain. The King of Spain

00:14:44.669 --> 00:14:47.110
was a business partner. He was a silent partner.

00:14:47.250 --> 00:14:49.570
And originally, Queen Anne of Britain also took

00:14:49.570 --> 00:14:51.450
a quarter share, though she later renounced hers

00:14:51.450 --> 00:14:54.129
and gave it back to the company. But when you

00:14:54.129 --> 00:14:56.990
add up the taxes to the Spanish crown, the bribes

00:14:56.990 --> 00:14:59.049
to local officials, the high mortality rates,

00:14:59.169 --> 00:15:02.889
and the sheer logistical cost, the margins were

00:15:02.889 --> 00:15:05.830
either razor thin or just plain negative. Unbelievable.

00:15:05.830 --> 00:15:08.409
So if the slave trade wasn't making money, what

00:15:08.409 --> 00:15:10.929
about that annual ship? The one ship a year with

00:15:10.929 --> 00:15:13.809
all the goods. Ah. Now, that was where the real

00:15:13.809 --> 00:15:17.169
money was, but not legally. The annual ship was

00:15:17.169 --> 00:15:20.429
basically a cover for a massive smuggling operation,

00:15:20.690 --> 00:15:24.210
industrial -scale contraband. The treaty said

00:15:24.210 --> 00:15:27.850
one ship, 500 tons. But what they would do is

00:15:27.850 --> 00:15:30.490
they would pack that ship to the gills with way

00:15:30.490 --> 00:15:33.490
more than they allowed quota. And once it docked

00:15:33.490 --> 00:15:36.789
in Portobello or Veracruz at night, smaller support

00:15:36.789 --> 00:15:39.049
ships would sail in from British -held Jamaica

00:15:39.049 --> 00:15:41.899
and secretly reload it. So they were basically

00:15:41.899 --> 00:15:44.580
selling the same ship's capacity 10 times over

00:15:44.580 --> 00:15:47.200
tax free. Exactly. They were just flooding the

00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:49.440
Spanish colonies with British manufactured goods,

00:15:49.580 --> 00:15:51.480
completely undercutting the official Spanish

00:15:51.480 --> 00:15:53.500
merchants. Which I assume the Spanish government

00:15:53.500 --> 00:15:55.500
didn't particularly appreciate. They were absolutely

00:15:55.500 --> 00:15:57.460
furious. It was a constant source of diplomatic

00:15:57.460 --> 00:16:00.259
tension. The company would often refuse to present

00:16:00.259 --> 00:16:02.519
its accounts to the Spanish king because obviously

00:16:02.519 --> 00:16:04.559
the books would show they were cheating him out

00:16:04.559 --> 00:16:06.600
of his share of the profits. This tension just

00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:09.200
got worse and worse and actually was a major

00:16:09.200 --> 00:16:11.419
contributing factor to another war later on,

00:16:11.480 --> 00:16:14.519
the wonderfully named War of Jenkins' Year in

00:16:14.519 --> 00:16:18.100
1739. So let's just summarize the business reality,

00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:22.500
say, around 1718. You have a deeply unprofitable,

00:16:22.539 --> 00:16:26.059
morally bankrupt sleer of trade, a side hustle

00:16:26.059 --> 00:16:28.360
and smuggling that's causing endless diplomatic

00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:32.580
headaches, and that's it. This is not a company

00:16:32.580 --> 00:16:34.759
that should be the darling of the London Stock

00:16:34.759 --> 00:16:37.080
Exchange. Not at all. It was a mediocre business

00:16:37.080 --> 00:16:39.779
at best. It was basically a government bond wrapper

00:16:39.779 --> 00:16:43.059
with a smuggling problem. But you have to remember,

00:16:43.220 --> 00:16:45.899
the stock price isn't always about the business

00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:48.740
reality. It's about the story. It's about the

00:16:48.740 --> 00:16:51.559
hype. And the story gets a massive turbo boost

00:16:51.559 --> 00:16:55.039
in 1719. Yes. And for that, we have to look across

00:16:55.039 --> 00:16:57.340
the English Channel to France. What's happening

00:16:57.340 --> 00:17:00.269
in France? A man named John Law. He was a Scottish

00:17:00.269 --> 00:17:02.570
economist, a convicted murderer, a gambler, a

00:17:02.570 --> 00:17:05.289
duelist, a real larger -than -life character.

00:17:05.509 --> 00:17:07.750
He'd fled Britain after killing a man in a duel

00:17:07.750 --> 00:17:09.869
and somehow managed to become the financial wizard

00:17:09.869 --> 00:17:12.569
of France. Okay. And Law had started something

00:17:12.569 --> 00:17:14.470
called the Mississippi Company. The Mississippi

00:17:14.470 --> 00:17:16.450
Company. I've definitely heard of this. Another

00:17:16.450 --> 00:17:18.970
famous bubble. It was the mirror image, the French

00:17:18.970 --> 00:17:22.359
equivalent of the South Sea Company. He had consolidated

00:17:22.359 --> 00:17:25.480
France's massive national debt into this company,

00:17:25.640 --> 00:17:28.660
which supposedly held a monopoly on trade with

00:17:28.660 --> 00:17:31.500
the French territory of Louisiana. And the share

00:17:31.500 --> 00:17:33.859
price in Paris was going vertical. People were

00:17:33.859 --> 00:17:35.940
becoming millionaires overnight. And the British

00:17:35.940 --> 00:17:37.839
are watching this from across the water. They

00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:40.160
are watching with extreme jealousy. I mean, deep

00:17:40.160 --> 00:17:43.220
national envy. They are seeing their old rivals,

00:17:43.339 --> 00:17:46.400
the French, seemingly getting rich beyond their

00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:48.960
wildest dreams and solving their national debt

00:17:48.960 --> 00:17:51.890
problem at the same time. And the South Sea directors,

00:17:52.089 --> 00:17:54.589
John Blunt and his crew, they think we can do

00:17:54.589 --> 00:17:57.410
that. We can do that, but bigger and better.

00:17:57.549 --> 00:18:00.470
So this jealousy, this sense of competition leads

00:18:00.470 --> 00:18:03.630
to the grand scheme of 1720. The takeover of

00:18:03.630 --> 00:18:05.869
the entire British national debt. Right, because

00:18:05.869 --> 00:18:08.130
up to this point, they only managed that initial

00:18:08.130 --> 00:18:11.109
nine million chunk. Now they want it all. They

00:18:11.109 --> 00:18:13.049
go to Parliament and they propose taking over

00:18:13.049 --> 00:18:16.190
all the unconsolidated national debt, about 30

00:18:16.190 --> 00:18:18.450
million more. That is a staggering amount of

00:18:18.450 --> 00:18:21.089
money for the 18th century. It's a huge percentage

00:18:21.089 --> 00:18:23.430
of the entire national economy. It's the whole

00:18:23.430 --> 00:18:26.289
shooting match. And the Bank of England, the

00:18:26.289 --> 00:18:29.309
old Whig institution, sees this happening and

00:18:29.309 --> 00:18:32.289
gets very, very nervous. They realize if the

00:18:32.289 --> 00:18:34.730
South Sea Company pulls this off, they become

00:18:34.730 --> 00:18:37.789
the dominant financial power, not just in Britain,

00:18:37.890 --> 00:18:40.190
but maybe in the world. The Bank of England would

00:18:40.190 --> 00:18:43.490
become irrelevant. A footnote. So the bank decides

00:18:43.490 --> 00:18:46.250
to fight back. They'd try to outbid them. A bidding

00:18:46.250 --> 00:18:48.509
war for the right to manage the government's

00:18:48.509 --> 00:18:51.250
debt. It was intense. The Bank of England went

00:18:51.250 --> 00:18:53.329
to Parliament and offered a huge payment to the

00:18:53.329 --> 00:18:55.650
government to win the contract. But the South

00:18:55.650 --> 00:18:58.490
Sea Company came back over the top. They offered

00:18:58.490 --> 00:19:01.329
what was effectively a bribe well, a payment

00:19:01.329 --> 00:19:05.309
to the public purse of 7 .5 million pounds. Wait,

00:19:05.369 --> 00:19:07.859
hold on. They offered to pay the government $7

00:19:07.859 --> 00:19:10.559
.5 million just for the privilege of taking on

00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:13.140
all this debt. Yes. How on earth can they possibly

00:19:13.140 --> 00:19:15.359
afford that if their actual business in South

00:19:15.359 --> 00:19:17.859
America wasn't making any money? That is the

00:19:17.859 --> 00:19:20.319
magic question. And the answer is the key to

00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:22.599
the whole bubble. The only way they could afford

00:19:22.599 --> 00:19:25.779
to pay the government $7 .5 million was if their

00:19:25.779 --> 00:19:28.619
stock price went up. Way, way up. Okay, walk

00:19:28.619 --> 00:19:30.039
me through the math on that. How does that work?

00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:32.819
Okay, so think of it this way. The company needs

00:19:32.819 --> 00:19:35.500
to issue new shares to give to the holders of

00:19:35.500 --> 00:19:38.579
government debt. If the stock price is low, say,

00:19:38.700 --> 00:19:42.319
100 pounds per share, they have to issue a lot

00:19:42.319 --> 00:19:44.819
of shares to cover that 30 million and debt.

00:19:45.000 --> 00:19:47.660
Right. A lot of paper. But. If they can get the

00:19:47.660 --> 00:19:50.140
stock price high, say 500 pounds or 800 pounds

00:19:50.140 --> 00:19:52.519
a share, they only have to issue a relatively

00:19:52.519 --> 00:19:55.519
small number of shares to buy up that same 30

00:19:55.519 --> 00:19:57.500
million of debt. So they have leftover shares.

00:19:57.779 --> 00:20:00.380
Exactly. That leaves them with millions of pounds

00:20:00.380 --> 00:20:02.920
worth of extra authorized shares that they don't

00:20:02.920 --> 00:20:05.380
need for the debt swap. They can then sell those

00:20:05.380 --> 00:20:08.740
extra shares on the open market for cash. And

00:20:08.740 --> 00:20:11.380
that cash is what they used to pay the $7 .5

00:20:11.380 --> 00:20:13.859
million to the government. So the entire scheme,

00:20:13.980 --> 00:20:16.380
the whole financial model, was explicitly designed

00:20:16.380 --> 00:20:19.160
to create a bubble. It relied on the stock price

00:20:19.160 --> 00:20:21.440
skyrocketing. It's an engineered bubble from

00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:24.119
day one. They needed a mania. If the stock price

00:20:24.119 --> 00:20:26.579
stayed flat, the company was instantly bankrupt

00:20:26.579 --> 00:20:27.839
because they couldn't make their payment to the

00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:29.200
government. The whole thing is a self -fulfilling

00:20:29.200 --> 00:20:31.920
prophecy or it was nothing. But to get this deal

00:20:31.920 --> 00:20:34.180
approved, they needed Parliament to say yes.

00:20:34.789 --> 00:20:37.470
And you'd think some MPs would look at this and

00:20:37.470 --> 00:20:39.970
say, hang on, this seems incredibly risky. This

00:20:39.970 --> 00:20:42.430
whole thing is built on thin air. Which is why

00:20:42.430 --> 00:20:45.089
they didn't just rely on clever financial arguments.

00:20:45.230 --> 00:20:47.789
They relied on good old fashioned corruption,

00:20:47.990 --> 00:20:51.569
massive systemic top to bottom corruption. The

00:20:51.569 --> 00:20:53.990
sources mentioned these things called bribe shares.

00:20:54.230 --> 00:20:56.390
How did that work? This is devilishly clever.

00:20:56.710 --> 00:20:58.589
If you just walk up to a politician and hand

00:20:58.589 --> 00:21:00.769
him a bag of gold. Yeah. That's bribery. Yeah.

00:21:00.849 --> 00:21:03.640
It's illegal. It's risky. It leaves a paper trail.

00:21:03.779 --> 00:21:06.700
All right. It's crude. Very. So Blunt and his

00:21:06.700 --> 00:21:09.240
team did something much more sophisticated. They

00:21:09.240 --> 00:21:11.460
would go to a powerful member of parliament or

00:21:11.460 --> 00:21:13.740
a government minister and say, I'm going to put

00:21:13.740 --> 00:21:16.440
your name down in my secret ledger for, say,

00:21:16.680 --> 00:21:19.720
5 ,000 pounds worth of South Sea stock. You don't

00:21:19.720 --> 00:21:21.599
have to pay for it now. We'll just hold it for

00:21:21.599 --> 00:21:24.740
you on credit. So they have zero risk. No skin

00:21:24.740 --> 00:21:27.289
in the game. Zero risk. Then they'd say. Later,

00:21:27.369 --> 00:21:29.049
when the stock price goes up, you can sell it

00:21:29.049 --> 00:21:31.190
back to us at the new higher price and you just

00:21:31.190 --> 00:21:33.450
keep the profit. It's a risk -free bet. If the

00:21:33.450 --> 00:21:35.450
stock goes up, they get a pile of free money.

00:21:35.549 --> 00:21:38.089
If the stock goes down, they lose nothing because

00:21:38.089 --> 00:21:40.650
they never paid for it in the first place. Precisely.

00:21:41.009 --> 00:21:43.710
But what this really does, the genius of it,

00:21:43.809 --> 00:21:46.589
is it perfectly aligns the politician's personal

00:21:46.589 --> 00:21:49.109
financial interest with the success of the bubble.

00:21:49.769 --> 00:21:52.230
Now that politician wants the stock to go up,

00:21:52.329 --> 00:21:55.140
he will vote for the bill. He will talk up the

00:21:55.140 --> 00:21:57.099
company's prospects to his friends. It turned

00:21:57.099 --> 00:21:59.079
the government into a hype machine for the company.

00:21:59.220 --> 00:22:02.000
It did. And they gave these bribe shares to everyone

00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:04.599
who mattered. The chancellor of the Exchequer

00:22:04.599 --> 00:22:07.519
himself, John Aislabie, got a huge junk. The

00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:09.720
postmaster general, key members of the House

00:22:09.720 --> 00:22:11.720
of Lords. They even gave them to King George

00:22:11.720 --> 00:22:14.619
I's mistresses. The king's mistresses? Seriously?

00:22:14.720 --> 00:22:18.059
Oh, yes. The Duchess of Kendal and the Countess

00:22:18.059 --> 00:22:20.279
of Platten. They were nicknamed the Elephant

00:22:20.279 --> 00:22:22.519
and Castle. These were the German mythresses

00:22:22.519 --> 00:22:25.079
of King George I, and they had immense influence

00:22:25.079 --> 00:22:26.980
at court. You couldn't get to the king without

00:22:26.980 --> 00:22:29.059
going through them. Giving them shares was a

00:22:29.059 --> 00:22:31.380
direct line to the throne. So the fix was well

00:22:31.380 --> 00:22:34.420
and truly in. The fix was in. The bill passed

00:22:34.420 --> 00:22:37.539
Parliament. The South Sea Company won the contract.

00:22:38.099 --> 00:22:41.809
And then the real marketing began. The mania.

00:22:41.809 --> 00:22:44.369
This is section four of our story. The mania.

00:22:44.369 --> 00:22:47.670
The spring and summer of 1720. The moment the

00:22:47.670 --> 00:22:49.710
madness took hold. So give me the numbers. Where

00:22:49.710 --> 00:22:52.009
did the stock price start in 1720 and where did

00:22:52.009 --> 00:22:55.509
it go? Okay, so in January 1720. Before the big

00:22:55.509 --> 00:22:57.710
scheme was approved, the stop was trading around

00:22:57.710 --> 00:23:00.690
128 pounds per share. OK, respectable price.

00:23:00.930 --> 00:23:03.289
By February, as the bill was being debated, it

00:23:03.289 --> 00:23:07.009
hit 175 pounds. Once the bill passed in March,

00:23:07.210 --> 00:23:10.170
it jumped to 330 pounds. It's more than doubled

00:23:10.170 --> 00:23:12.230
in two months. And it's just getting started.

00:23:12.410 --> 00:23:15.190
By May, it's at 550 pounds. And what's driving

00:23:15.190 --> 00:23:17.369
this? Is there any actual good news coming from

00:23:17.369 --> 00:23:19.809
South America? Did they announce, oh, we finally

00:23:19.809 --> 00:23:22.890
signed a new trade deal with Spain? No. That's

00:23:22.890 --> 00:23:24.890
the incredible thing. There was zero positive

00:23:24.890 --> 00:23:27.089
news from the actual business. It was all rumors.

00:23:27.769 --> 00:23:29.890
Extravagant rumors, the source calls them. The

00:23:29.890 --> 00:23:32.230
company directors would deliberately plant whispers

00:23:32.230 --> 00:23:34.470
in the coffee houses of London. What kind of

00:23:34.470 --> 00:23:37.029
things? Things like, a treaty is about to be

00:23:37.029 --> 00:23:39.369
signed with Spain that will give us free and

00:23:39.369 --> 00:23:43.599
unlimited trade. Or... my favorite, they whispered

00:23:43.599 --> 00:23:46.380
that Britain was going to trade the Rock of Gibraltar

00:23:46.380 --> 00:23:49.180
to Spain in exchange for gold mines in Peru,

00:23:49.359 --> 00:23:51.440
which would be handed over to the company. And

00:23:51.440 --> 00:23:53.700
none of it was true. Not a word of it. It was

00:23:53.700 --> 00:23:57.680
cure fiction. But the public ate it up. A frenzy

00:23:57.680 --> 00:24:00.200
gripped the nation. And it wasn't just the rich

00:24:00.200 --> 00:24:04.170
elite in London. It was everyone. Peasants, lords,

00:24:04.269 --> 00:24:07.609
merchants, scientists, widows. Everyone was trying

00:24:07.609 --> 00:24:09.490
to get a piece of the action. It's the fear of

00:24:09.490 --> 00:24:12.089
missing out. 300 years before we had an acronym

00:24:12.089 --> 00:24:15.190
for it. It really was. You would see crowds of

00:24:15.190 --> 00:24:18.089
people in Exchange Alley in London, just desperate

00:24:18.089 --> 00:24:21.430
to buy shares. And this incredible success spawned

00:24:21.430 --> 00:24:23.329
hundreds of copycats. This is one of my favorite

00:24:23.329 --> 00:24:24.930
parts of the story. These are the other famous

00:24:24.930 --> 00:24:26.869
bubbles, right? The really absurd ones. The most

00:24:26.869 --> 00:24:29.089
ridiculous business proposals you can imagine.

00:24:29.740 --> 00:24:32.000
Because the South Sea Company was making so much

00:24:32.000 --> 00:24:35.140
money on paper, hundreds of other bubble companies

00:24:35.140 --> 00:24:37.579
popped up to try and catch the wave. Give me

00:24:37.579 --> 00:24:40.019
some examples. There were companies formed for

00:24:40.019 --> 00:24:43.259
turning quicksilver into a malleable metal. There

00:24:43.259 --> 00:24:46.119
was one for importing jackasses from Spain. Wait,

00:24:46.180 --> 00:24:49.400
literally importing jackasses, as in donkeys?

00:24:49.579 --> 00:24:52.700
Literally donkeys. And people bought stock in

00:24:52.700 --> 00:24:55.839
it. There was a company for a wheel for perpetual

00:24:55.839 --> 00:24:59.440
motion. There was one for improving the art of

00:24:59.440 --> 00:25:01.880
making soap. And people were just throwing their

00:25:01.880 --> 00:25:04.240
money at these things. They were lining up. But

00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:06.720
the most famous one, the one that perfectly captures

00:25:06.720 --> 00:25:10.059
the madness, was a company described in its prospectus

00:25:10.059 --> 00:25:13.119
as being for carrying out an undertaking of great

00:25:13.119 --> 00:25:15.980
advantage, but nobody to know what it is. Give

00:25:15.980 --> 00:25:17.519
us your money. We won't tell you what we're doing

00:25:17.519 --> 00:25:20.339
with it, but trust us, it'll be great. And the

00:25:20.339 --> 00:25:22.279
promoter opened the subscription list in the

00:25:22.279 --> 00:25:24.660
morning. took in 2 ,000 pounds of fortune at

00:25:24.660 --> 00:25:26.819
the time, and reportedly fled for the continent

00:25:26.819 --> 00:25:29.980
by that afternoon with the cash. That is absolutely

00:25:29.980 --> 00:25:32.640
incredible. But here's the twist, isn't it? The

00:25:32.640 --> 00:25:34.880
South Sea Company, the mother of all these bubbles,

00:25:35.079 --> 00:25:36.839
looks at all these little bubbles popping up

00:25:36.839 --> 00:25:39.519
around it and gets annoyed. They did. They got

00:25:39.519 --> 00:25:41.759
very territorial. They saw these other companies

00:25:41.759 --> 00:25:45.279
as competitors for capital. Every pound that

00:25:45.279 --> 00:25:48.039
an investor put into a jackass import company

00:25:48.039 --> 00:25:50.700
was a pound that wasn't being used to bid up

00:25:50.700 --> 00:25:52.930
the price of South Sea stock. So what did they

00:25:52.930 --> 00:25:54.890
do about it? They used their political influence.

00:25:55.170 --> 00:25:57.490
Remember, they basically owned the government

00:25:57.490 --> 00:25:59.710
at this point to get Parliament to pass a new

00:25:59.710 --> 00:26:03.170
law, the Bubble Act of June 1720. The Bubble

00:26:03.170 --> 00:26:06.490
Act. This law essentially forbade the creation

00:26:06.490 --> 00:26:09.410
of new joint stock companies without a royal

00:26:09.410 --> 00:26:12.859
charter. Basically, it made it illegal to start

00:26:12.859 --> 00:26:14.599
one of these new public companies unless you

00:26:14.599 --> 00:26:17.380
had explicit and very hard to get permission

00:26:17.380 --> 00:26:19.599
from the king. So they were trying to legislate

00:26:19.599 --> 00:26:21.380
their competition out of existence. They were

00:26:21.380 --> 00:26:23.740
trying to clear the field so that all the speculative

00:26:23.740 --> 00:26:25.599
money in the country would have only one place

00:26:25.599 --> 00:26:29.160
to go into their stock. And did it work? It worked

00:26:29.160 --> 00:26:31.700
too well. And this is the great, beautiful irony

00:26:31.700 --> 00:26:34.519
of the whole story. This is the real aha moment

00:26:34.519 --> 00:26:36.779
for the listener. OK, unpack it for me. When

00:26:36.779 --> 00:26:39.250
the Bubble Act passed. It caused a panic among

00:26:39.250 --> 00:26:41.069
investors who had put their money into those

00:26:41.069 --> 00:26:44.210
smaller, now illegal companies. They all tried

00:26:44.210 --> 00:26:46.450
to sell their shares at once to get their cash

00:26:46.450 --> 00:26:48.890
out. And the prices of those small bubbles collapsed.

00:26:49.470 --> 00:26:52.849
Instantly. But here's the thing. Many of these

00:26:52.849 --> 00:26:54.910
investors had bought those shares on credit.

00:26:54.990 --> 00:26:57.690
They had borrowed money to speculate. When the

00:26:57.690 --> 00:26:59.990
small bubbles popped, they were suddenly facing

00:26:59.990 --> 00:27:02.880
margin calls. They needed cash, and they needed

00:27:02.880 --> 00:27:05.519
it fast to pay their debts. They had a liquidity

00:27:05.519 --> 00:27:08.019
crisis. Exactly. And where was most of their

00:27:08.019 --> 00:27:11.220
remaining cash tied up? In South Sea stock. Precisely.

00:27:11.420 --> 00:27:13.519
So to cover their losses in the small bubbles,

00:27:13.740 --> 00:27:15.960
they were forced to sell their South Sea shares.

00:27:16.579 --> 00:27:19.039
So by popping all the little bubbles, the South

00:27:19.039 --> 00:27:21.259
Sea company accidentally triggered a massive

00:27:21.259 --> 00:27:23.920
wave of selling in its own stock. They pricked

00:27:23.920 --> 00:27:26.539
the pin that popped their own balloon. That's

00:27:26.539 --> 00:27:29.220
almost poetic justice. It's a perfect lesson

00:27:29.220 --> 00:27:32.220
in unintended consequences. You can't just destroy

00:27:32.220 --> 00:27:34.799
confidence in one part of the market and expect

00:27:34.799 --> 00:27:37.299
it not to bleed over into the rest. Confidence

00:27:37.299 --> 00:27:40.160
is contagious, but so is fear. So we hit the

00:27:40.160 --> 00:27:44.660
peak. Early August 1720. The stock price touches

00:27:44.660 --> 00:27:47.640
1 ,000 pounds a share. And even 1 ,000 pounds.

00:27:48.180 --> 00:27:51.019
At that price, the company is valued at more

00:27:51.019 --> 00:27:53.220
than twice the value of all the land in England.

00:27:53.849 --> 00:27:56.569
It's a valuation completely disconnected from

00:27:56.569 --> 00:27:59.569
any possible reality. And then the selling starts.

00:27:59.710 --> 00:28:02.849
The selling that their own act triggered. It

00:28:02.849 --> 00:28:05.450
starts slow at first. Just a trickle. But then

00:28:05.450 --> 00:28:08.170
it cascades. The price falls. People who borrowed

00:28:08.170 --> 00:28:10.849
money to buy shares get margin calls, forcing

00:28:10.849 --> 00:28:13.269
them to sell, which pushes the price down further,

00:28:13.430 --> 00:28:16.349
which triggers more margin calls. It's a death

00:28:16.349 --> 00:28:17.970
spiral. What were the numbers on the way down?

00:28:18.150 --> 00:28:20.829
From 1 ,000 pounds in early August, it was down

00:28:20.829 --> 00:28:22.930
to 700 pounds by the end of the month. By the

00:28:22.930 --> 00:28:25.269
end of September, it was back down to 150 pounds.

00:28:25.430 --> 00:28:27.849
From 1 ,000 pounds to 150 pounds in about two

00:28:27.849 --> 00:28:30.109
months. A complete and total collapse. And because

00:28:30.109 --> 00:28:31.950
the company itself had been lending money to

00:28:31.950 --> 00:28:33.589
people to buy its own shares, this was another

00:28:33.589 --> 00:28:36.250
one of John Blood's genius ideas, the company

00:28:36.250 --> 00:28:38.450
was destroyed along with the shareholders. Explain

00:28:38.450 --> 00:28:41.230
that loan scheme. That seems insane. It was.

00:28:41.650 --> 00:28:44.109
To keep the price rising over the summer, the

00:28:44.109 --> 00:28:46.210
South Sea Company let you borrow money directly

00:28:46.210 --> 00:28:49.009
from them to buy their stock. So you could buy

00:28:49.009 --> 00:28:52.130
a share for, say, 500 pounds. But you only had

00:28:52.130 --> 00:28:55.089
to put 50 pounds down and the company would lend

00:28:55.089 --> 00:28:57.849
you the other 450 pounds. But the collateral

00:28:57.849 --> 00:29:00.849
for that loan is the share itself. Exactly. So

00:29:00.849 --> 00:29:03.569
when the stock price drops from 500 pounds down

00:29:03.569 --> 00:29:06.009
to 300 pounds, the collateral is now worth less

00:29:06.009 --> 00:29:09.750
than the loan. The borrower defaults. The company

00:29:09.750 --> 00:29:12.150
doesn't get its money back. The borrower loses

00:29:12.150 --> 00:29:14.829
their deposit. Everyone goes broke simultaneously.

00:29:15.289 --> 00:29:18.849
It was financial dynamite. Banks failed. Goldsmiths

00:29:18.849 --> 00:29:21.490
who acted as proto -banks failed. Thousands and

00:29:21.490 --> 00:29:23.450
thousands of people were utterly ruined. The

00:29:23.450 --> 00:29:25.690
sources talk about suicides, people fleeing the

00:29:25.690 --> 00:29:27.910
country. It was a national trauma on a scale

00:29:27.910 --> 00:29:29.890
that's hard to imagine. And this brings us back

00:29:29.890 --> 00:29:32.930
to Sir Isaac Newton. Poor Isaac. A genius in

00:29:32.930 --> 00:29:35.250
physics, but not in market timing. He was actually

00:29:35.250 --> 00:29:36.670
in early, wasn't he? He was one of the smart

00:29:36.670 --> 00:29:38.970
ones. He was. The story goes that he bought in

00:29:38.970 --> 00:29:40.930
early in the year, made a very handsome profit

00:29:40.930 --> 00:29:43.910
of about 7 ,000 pounds, and sold out. He cashed

00:29:43.910 --> 00:29:46.049
in his chips. But then he had to sit and watch

00:29:46.049 --> 00:29:49.089
as the price kept going up and up and up. He

00:29:49.089 --> 00:29:51.710
watched his friends and his colleagues, people

00:29:51.710 --> 00:29:54.329
he considered not nearly as smart as him, making

00:29:54.329 --> 00:29:57.609
absolute fortunes. And the FOMO, the psychological

00:29:57.609 --> 00:30:00.009
pressure, it just broke him. He couldn't stand

00:30:00.009 --> 00:30:02.630
it. He jumped back in near the top. Oh, no. And

00:30:02.630 --> 00:30:03.990
he wrote it all the way down. He lost something

00:30:03.990 --> 00:30:06.630
like 20 ,000 pounds. Which in today's money is

00:30:06.630 --> 00:30:09.990
millions. A huge portion of his personal wealth

00:30:09.990 --> 00:30:13.170
wiped out. And that's when he supposedly made

00:30:13.170 --> 00:30:16.230
that famous quote. I can calculate the movement

00:30:16.230 --> 00:30:19.490
of the stars, but not the madness of men. It

00:30:19.490 --> 00:30:21.970
just shows you, doesn't it? Raw intelligence

00:30:21.970 --> 00:30:24.769
is no defense against the psychology of a mania.

00:30:24.829 --> 00:30:27.670
None whatsoever. So the bubble has burst. The

00:30:27.670 --> 00:30:30.150
country is in financial ruins. The public is

00:30:30.150 --> 00:30:32.569
furious. They want heads to roll. They want blood.

00:30:32.750 --> 00:30:35.430
They want scapegoats. Parliament is recalled

00:30:35.430 --> 00:30:38.369
in December, and the investigation begins. And

00:30:38.369 --> 00:30:40.890
this is where all the skullduggery, as the sources

00:30:40.890 --> 00:30:43.500
call it, starts to come to light. Because the

00:30:43.500 --> 00:30:45.559
directors of the company didn't just lose money

00:30:45.559 --> 00:30:47.579
like everyone else. They had been selling, hadn't

00:30:47.579 --> 00:30:51.299
they? Oh, of course they had. The insiders, Blunt

00:30:51.299 --> 00:30:53.740
and his cronies, had been quietly cashing out

00:30:53.740 --> 00:30:56.380
at the top all summer. But the problem for the

00:30:56.380 --> 00:30:58.799
investigators was proving it and finding the

00:30:58.799 --> 00:31:01.900
evidence of the bribes. The key was the company

00:31:01.900 --> 00:31:04.859
cashier, a man named Robert Knight. He was the

00:31:04.859 --> 00:31:06.799
one who kept the books. Kept the famous green

00:31:06.799 --> 00:31:10.170
book. a secret ledger that had the names of all

00:31:10.170 --> 00:31:12.049
the politicians who had been given the bribe

00:31:12.049 --> 00:31:14.930
shares. It was the smoking gun. The evidence.

00:31:15.170 --> 00:31:17.809
The absolute proof. So Parliament summons Knight.

00:31:17.930 --> 00:31:20.529
They want to see the book. Knight flees the country.

00:31:20.690 --> 00:31:23.109
He grabs the green book, escapes to the continent,

00:31:23.230 --> 00:31:26.349
and disappears. It's widely believed he was tipped

00:31:26.349 --> 00:31:29.109
off and allowed to escape by powerful figures

00:31:29.109 --> 00:31:31.230
in the government, because if he had testified,

00:31:31.569 --> 00:31:34.549
he would have implicated the king, the mistresses,

00:31:34.569 --> 00:31:37.660
half the cabinet. the scandal would have brought

00:31:37.660 --> 00:31:39.759
down the entire establishment. So he was the

00:31:39.759 --> 00:31:42.500
fall guy, but he was allowed to get away to protect

00:31:42.500 --> 00:31:45.720
the people at the very top. Exactly. But others

00:31:45.720 --> 00:31:49.059
weren't so lucky. John Aselby, the chancellor

00:31:49.059 --> 00:31:51.400
of the Exchequer, the man in charge of the nation's

00:31:51.400 --> 00:31:54.680
finances, was found guilty of corruption. He

00:31:54.680 --> 00:31:57.799
was impeached, stripped of his assets, and locked

00:31:57.799 --> 00:32:01.920
up in the Tower of London. Wow. Imprisoned. James

00:32:01.920 --> 00:32:03.759
Craggs the Elder, he was the postmaster general

00:32:03.759 --> 00:32:06.259
and another key player, he conveniently died,

00:32:06.440 --> 00:32:09.440
supposedly of apoplexy, right before he was due

00:32:09.440 --> 00:32:12.259
to be questioned. It's widely suspected he took

00:32:12.259 --> 00:32:15.400
poison. His son, James Craggs the Younger, who

00:32:15.400 --> 00:32:17.440
was also implicated, died of smallpox around

00:32:17.440 --> 00:32:19.779
the same time. A lot of very convenient deaths.

00:32:20.140 --> 00:32:22.980
And the company directors, the businessmen behind

00:32:22.980 --> 00:32:25.180
the scheme. They were rounded up and stripped

00:32:25.180 --> 00:32:27.410
of their wealth. Parliament passed a specialized

00:32:27.410 --> 00:32:29.750
act just for them. They went through their finances

00:32:29.750 --> 00:32:31.970
with a fine -tooth comb and confiscated their

00:32:31.970 --> 00:32:34.450
estates. On average, the directors were forced

00:32:34.450 --> 00:32:37.430
to give up 82 % of their total net worth to create

00:32:37.430 --> 00:32:39.509
a fund to help repay the victims. That's actually

00:32:39.509 --> 00:32:41.710
a surprisingly harsh punishment compared to how

00:32:41.710 --> 00:32:43.869
we often treat financial criminals today. It

00:32:43.869 --> 00:32:46.410
was brutal. They were publicly shamed and left

00:32:46.410 --> 00:32:48.289
with just enough to live on, a few hundred pounds

00:32:48.289 --> 00:32:50.549
a year, but their fortunes were completely wiped

00:32:50.549 --> 00:32:53.589
out. But someone had to clean this mess up. The

00:32:53.589 --> 00:32:56.289
entire British financial system was on the brink

00:32:56.289 --> 00:32:59.450
of collapse. Enter Robert Walpole. Walpole, a

00:32:59.450 --> 00:33:02.529
huge figure. He is a giant of British history.

00:33:02.710 --> 00:33:05.349
He is widely considered to be the first de facto

00:33:05.349 --> 00:33:07.289
prime minister, though the title wasn't official

00:33:07.289 --> 00:33:09.990
yet. He had been a critic of the South Sea scheme,

00:33:10.109 --> 00:33:12.569
so he had clean hands. He was brought in as the

00:33:12.569 --> 00:33:14.650
first lord of the treasury to fix the crash.

00:33:15.009 --> 00:33:17.349
He was the ultimate fixer. The ultimate political

00:33:17.349 --> 00:33:20.980
operator. His job was twofold. First, restore

00:33:20.980 --> 00:33:23.460
confidence in the economy and prevent a total

00:33:23.460 --> 00:33:26.240
meltdown. Second, and maybe more importantly,

00:33:26.460 --> 00:33:28.859
screen the king and the royal court from the

00:33:28.859 --> 00:33:31.019
scandal. Because if the public found out the

00:33:31.019 --> 00:33:33.559
king and his mistresses were personally profiting

00:33:33.559 --> 00:33:35.660
while they were being ruined. It could have been

00:33:35.660 --> 00:33:37.980
the end of the monarchy. You have to remember,

00:33:38.140 --> 00:33:40.619
the Hanoverian dynasty of King George III was

00:33:40.619 --> 00:33:44.019
new and not very popular. The Jacobites, who

00:33:44.019 --> 00:33:46.500
supported the old Stuart line of kings, were

00:33:46.500 --> 00:33:49.269
still a major threat. A massive royal scandal

00:33:49.269 --> 00:33:51.289
could have easily tipped the country into civil

00:33:51.289 --> 00:33:54.150
war or revolution. So Walpole had to perform

00:33:54.150 --> 00:33:57.430
this incredible balancing act, bury the evidence

00:33:57.430 --> 00:33:59.609
against the king while still looking like he

00:33:59.609 --> 00:34:02.089
was punishing the guilty directors. Exactly.

00:34:02.089 --> 00:34:05.329
He screened the king, as they called it. He masterfully

00:34:05.329 --> 00:34:07.529
managed the parliamentary inquiry so it didn't

00:34:07.529 --> 00:34:09.769
look too high up the chain of command. And he

00:34:09.769 --> 00:34:11.889
restored financial confidence by coming up with

00:34:11.889 --> 00:34:14.030
a plan to divide the South Sea Company's stock

00:34:14.030 --> 00:34:16.849
between the Bank of England and the East India

00:34:16.849 --> 00:34:19.889
Company. He stabilized the market. And in doing

00:34:19.889 --> 00:34:22.409
so, he made himself the most powerful and indispensable

00:34:22.409 --> 00:34:25.289
man in the country. He did. He essentially ruled

00:34:25.289 --> 00:34:28.269
Britain for the next 20 years. The South Sea

00:34:28.269 --> 00:34:30.510
bubble, in a strange way, created the office

00:34:30.510 --> 00:34:32.769
of the prime minister as we know it today. Now,

00:34:32.809 --> 00:34:35.349
here's the part that completely blew my mind

00:34:35.349 --> 00:34:38.449
when I was reading the source material. You would

00:34:38.449 --> 00:34:41.650
think, after all this, the fraud, the collapse,

00:34:41.809 --> 00:34:45.050
the suicides, the imprisonment, that the South

00:34:45.050 --> 00:34:48.599
Sea Company would be dissolved. just burned to

00:34:48.599 --> 00:34:50.880
the ground and its name erased from history.

00:34:51.039 --> 00:34:53.099
You would absolutely think so. It was a national

00:34:53.099 --> 00:34:55.900
disgrace. But it wasn't. No. And it survived.

00:34:56.360 --> 00:34:59.139
How is that even possible? Because it still held

00:34:59.139 --> 00:35:01.880
all that government debt. The fundamental financial

00:35:01.880 --> 00:35:04.900
structure that Harley created in 1711 was still

00:35:04.900 --> 00:35:07.320
there. The company was still the legal entity

00:35:07.320 --> 00:35:09.480
to which the government owed tens of millions

00:35:09.480 --> 00:35:12.559
of pounds. Walpole just restructured it. He cleaned

00:35:12.559 --> 00:35:15.079
house, put in new management, and the company

00:35:15.079 --> 00:35:17.719
became a kind of glorified semi -public management

00:35:17.719 --> 00:35:20.659
firm for government bonds. So its main job was

00:35:20.659 --> 00:35:22.559
just collecting interest from the government

00:35:22.559 --> 00:35:24.960
and paying it out as dividends. Did they still

00:35:24.960 --> 00:35:27.480
try to do any actual trade? They did. And this

00:35:27.480 --> 00:35:29.599
is the tragic comedy of the afterlife section

00:35:29.599 --> 00:35:36.980
of the company. Wailing. From South American

00:35:36.980 --> 00:35:39.099
slaves to Arctic whales. That's quite a pivot.

00:35:39.260 --> 00:35:41.380
A big pivot. They just couldn't give up the dream

00:35:41.380 --> 00:35:44.780
of being a trading company. It seems not. They

00:35:44.780 --> 00:35:46.739
built a fleet of 12 state -of -the -art whaling

00:35:46.739 --> 00:35:50.320
ships, later expanded it to 25. They sent them

00:35:50.320 --> 00:35:53.360
up to Greenland to hunt whales. And how did that

00:35:53.360 --> 00:35:55.880
go? Let me guess. It was a complete and utter

00:35:55.880 --> 00:35:58.780
disaster. It turned out Britain had no experienced

00:35:58.780 --> 00:36:02.019
whalers. The company had to hire expensive Dutch

00:36:02.019 --> 00:36:04.599
and Danish captains and crews to even man the

00:36:04.599 --> 00:36:07.099
ships. And they caught no whales. They caught

00:36:07.099 --> 00:36:10.059
very few whales. And the same culture of mismanagement

00:36:10.059 --> 00:36:12.320
and corruption that defined the company in 1720

00:36:12.320 --> 00:36:15.000
was still there. The costs were out of control.

00:36:15.260 --> 00:36:18.039
Over eight years, they accumulated a net loss

00:36:18.039 --> 00:36:21.440
of over 177 ,000 pounds on their whaling venture.

00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:24.119
Even with government subsidies. They just could

00:36:24.119 --> 00:36:26.280
not get it right. They were fundamentally incompetent

00:36:26.280 --> 00:36:28.099
at actually running a business. They finally

00:36:28.099 --> 00:36:31.380
gave up on whaling in 1732. But the company itself,

00:36:31.739 --> 00:36:34.659
the shell of it, the debt management part, it

00:36:34.659 --> 00:36:37.840
just kept going and going and going until 1853.

00:36:38.420 --> 00:36:41.260
1853. That's Victorian England. That's Charles

00:36:41.260 --> 00:36:43.400
Dickens time. We're talking steam trains and

00:36:43.400 --> 00:36:46.250
factories. In fact, Dickens actually mentions

00:36:46.250 --> 00:36:49.110
the South Sea House in his essays. He describes

00:36:49.110 --> 00:36:52.550
it as this sleepy, dusty old office in the city

00:36:52.550 --> 00:36:55.489
of London where a few ancient clerks sat around

00:36:55.489 --> 00:36:59.389
doing basically nothing, managing the last remnants

00:36:59.389 --> 00:37:01.489
of this hundred -year -old debt. So the ghost

00:37:01.489 --> 00:37:04.289
of the bubble literally haunted London for more

00:37:04.289 --> 00:37:07.369
than a century. It did. A strange long afterlife.

00:37:08.010 --> 00:37:10.250
So bringing it all together, what's the big takeaway

00:37:10.250 --> 00:37:12.550
here? When we look back at the South Sea bubble

00:37:12.550 --> 00:37:15.230
from the 21st century, what should we learn?

00:37:15.389 --> 00:37:17.989
I think there are three really big things. First,

00:37:18.150 --> 00:37:20.530
it created the template for almost every modern

00:37:20.530 --> 00:37:23.769
financial bubble since. The hype, the use of

00:37:23.769 --> 00:37:26.949
leverage, the insider trading, the talk of a...

00:37:27.159 --> 00:37:29.760
new paradigm that turns out to be a lie. It's

00:37:29.760 --> 00:37:32.300
all there in 1720. It's the same script, just

00:37:32.300 --> 00:37:34.079
with different costumes and different technology.

00:37:34.239 --> 00:37:36.800
Exactly. Second, the political impact was immense.

00:37:37.079 --> 00:37:39.179
It cemented the power of the Bank of England

00:37:39.179 --> 00:37:41.360
as the government's lender of last resort, and

00:37:41.360 --> 00:37:43.059
it created the position of the prime minister.

00:37:43.239 --> 00:37:46.000
It literally shaped the modern British state.

00:37:46.179 --> 00:37:48.460
And the third. The unintended consequences of

00:37:48.460 --> 00:37:52.059
regulation. That bubble act. A law passed by

00:37:52.059 --> 00:37:54.599
the company to protect its own monopoly ended

00:37:54.599 --> 00:37:57.000
up being the very thing that destroyed it. It's

00:37:57.000 --> 00:37:59.480
a timeless lesson that trying to rig the market

00:37:59.480 --> 00:38:01.719
often blows up in your face in ways you can't

00:38:01.719 --> 00:38:04.719
predict. And there is one final really provocative

00:38:04.719 --> 00:38:06.619
thought from the source material that I want

00:38:06.619 --> 00:38:08.559
to leave our listeners with. The connection to

00:38:08.559 --> 00:38:11.960
America. Yes. The source mentions that the public

00:38:11.960 --> 00:38:15.119
outrage over the corruption, the anger at the

00:38:15.119 --> 00:38:17.860
king's ministers, the bribery, the self -dealing

00:38:17.860 --> 00:38:20.679
it, inspired a series of hugely popular essays

00:38:20.679 --> 00:38:23.360
called Cato's Letters. Cato's Letters were written

00:38:23.360 --> 00:38:25.699
by two radicals, John Trencher and Thomas Gordon.

00:38:26.019 --> 00:38:28.880
They were these fierce anonymous attacks on corruption

00:38:28.880 --> 00:38:31.519
and government tyranny written directly in response

00:38:31.519 --> 00:38:33.780
to the South Sea Bubble scandal. And who were

00:38:33.780 --> 00:38:36.340
the biggest fans of Cato's Letters? The American

00:38:36.340 --> 00:38:39.480
founding fathers. Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson,

00:38:39.679 --> 00:38:42.880
John Adams. Those letters were incredibly popular

00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:45.559
and influential in the American colonies. They

00:38:45.559 --> 00:38:47.900
became a kind of foundational text for the arguments

00:38:47.900 --> 00:38:50.400
against British tyranny and for Republican government.

00:38:50.750 --> 00:38:54.789
So in a weird, winding, historical way, a fraudulent

00:38:54.789 --> 00:38:57.989
stock market scheme in London in 1720 helped

00:38:57.989 --> 00:39:00.210
to plant the intellectual seeds for the American

00:39:00.210 --> 00:39:03.650
Revolution in 1776. It's the butterfly effect

00:39:03.650 --> 00:39:06.210
of history, isn't it? The greed of a few men

00:39:06.210 --> 00:39:08.550
in Exchange Alley may have inadvertently helped

00:39:08.550 --> 00:39:10.829
to inspire the creation of the United States

00:39:10.829 --> 00:39:13.949
and cost Britain its American empire. That is

00:39:13.949 --> 00:39:16.670
a lot to process, from debt schemes and royal

00:39:16.670 --> 00:39:18.969
mistresses all the way to the Declaration of

00:39:18.969 --> 00:39:20.940
Independence. It's quite a... story yeah one

00:39:20.940 --> 00:39:22.840
that just keeps on giving thank you for taking

00:39:22.840 --> 00:39:24.619
us through it and thank you all for listening

00:39:24.619 --> 00:39:26.480
to the deep dive we'll catch you on the next

00:39:26.480 --> 00:39:26.659
one
