WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today, we are

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stepping into a war zone. That's a strong way

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to start. I think it's appropriate. But I'm not

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talking about a conflict fought with, you know,

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tanks or drones. This is a war fought with zoning

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codes, environmental impact reports, and some

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very, very angry letters to the editor. Right.

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It's the battle of the public hearing. Exactly.

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We're looking at the invisible architecture that

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decides who gets to live where, how long your

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commute is, and honestly, whether or not the

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entire global economy actually functions properly.

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It sounds a bit hyperbolic when you put it that

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way. Does it? I mean, zoning codes determine

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the fate of nations. But when you really peel

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back the layers, and we're going to do that today,

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that's not far from the truth. We are talking

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about the collision between local control and,

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well, national necessity. We're talking about

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the battle for the backyard. The clash between

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NEBY and a YMB. Precisely. And these are terms

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that people hear all the time now. All the time.

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But before we get into the heavy stuff, and believe

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me, we have a lot of heavy stuff today. From

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the mechanics of the housing crisis to the sociology

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of wind farms, we need to set the terms of engagement.

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Lay the groundwork. Yeah. Let's treat this like

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a legal deposition. I think most people have

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heard the acronym NEBY, but let's define it properly.

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What exactly are we talking about here? Okay,

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so in the blue corner, you've got the incumbent

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champion, N. Yim By. It stands for not in my

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backyard. Right. This refers to opposition by

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residents to a proposed development in their

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local area. And the key nuance here, the really

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important part is the my. The my. Yeah. They

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might actually support the development in the

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abstract. They'll say things like, yes, of course,

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society needs prisons or yes, we absolutely need

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more high voltage power lines for the grid. We

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need green energy. We need green energy. But

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the second the map shows that power line crossing

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their property or that wind. behind spoiling

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their view, the answer becomes a very, very hard

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no. Right. It's the gap between we need this

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and I want this. That's a perfect way to put

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it. And then in the red corner, you've got the

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challenger. This is a movement that has really

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only organized as a big political force in, say,

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the last decade or so. Okay. YMBY. Yes. In my

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backyard. The counter movement. It's a direct

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response. It's a movement that explicitly advocates

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for increasing the supply of housing, for increasing

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density, and for building public transit, even,

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and this is the key, especially in their own

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neighborhoods. So our mission today isn't just

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to look at two groups shouting at each other

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at a town hall meeting. No, no. We want to get

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under the hood. That's it. Understand the machinery

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beneath the shouting. Why do people fight so

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hard to stop a duplex from being built down the

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street? Why has this counter movement sprung

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up that unites of all people, socialists and

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libertarians? That's a very strange coalition.

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And maybe the most important question of all,

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we need to audit the bill. What is the actual

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tangible cost of saying no all the time? And

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that cost, as we're going to see, is staggering.

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We've got sources today from all over the place.

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We're looking at economic papers by people like

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Shia Moretti. We've got case studies from the

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Tokyo suburbs, the streets of San Francisco.

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So this isn't just a U .S. thing. Oh, not at

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all. It's a global phenomenon. London, Sydney,

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Toronto. You see the exact same dynamics playing

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out everywhere. OK, so let's start at the beginning.

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The history. Because NMB feels like a word that

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has always existed, right? Like taxes or traffic.

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Yeah. It just feels like part of the furniture.

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But it has a birthday. It does. It really emerges

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in the late 1970s and then it properly catches

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fire in the early 1980s. But here's the interesting

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thing. It wasn't originally about housing. It

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wasn't. Not at all. It wasn't about preserving

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neighborhood character in leafy suburbs. It was

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about hazardous waste. Seriously, like toxic

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waste. Exactly. The earliest citations we can

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find come from the Atomic Energy Commission and

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from disputes about waste management facilities.

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It was literally people saying, please do not

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bury radioactive sludge in my backyard. OK, hold

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on. To be fair. If I'm playing devil's advocate

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right out of the gate here, that sounds like

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a perfectly rational objection. It is. If someone

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wants to put a nuclear waste dump next to my

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kid's swing set, you bet I'm going to be an NMBY.

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100%. And that's where the term got its initial

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moral weight. It was a genuine defense mechanism

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against real... tangible environmental hazards.

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So what changed? Well, as we moved into the 1980s,

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the usage started to drift. It started to broaden.

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You had politicians like Nicholas Ridley. He

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was the British conservative secretary of state

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for the environment. And he started using the

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term to describe people who were opposing development

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that the government felt was necessary. Ah, OK.

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So it went from save us from actual poison to.

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Stop complaining about the new bypass road. That's

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the shift, exactly. And then pop culture came

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in and just cemented it in the public consciousness.

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You know the comedian George Carlin? Of course.

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A legend. In 1992, he did a special called Jammin'

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in New York. And he has this brilliant, absolutely

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scathing bit about NMBWise. I think I remember

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this. He diagnosed it as a drawbridge mentality.

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That was his phrase. The idea is... I have moved

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into this nice neighborhood. It is perfect right

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now. I've got my piece of the pie. Pull up the

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drawbridge. Pull up the drawbridge. That's it.

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No one else comes in. No more traffic. No more

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people. I got mine. You stay out. That feels

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like the turning point, right, where the term

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stops being descriptive and becomes an insult.

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Absolutely. Because now if you call someone an

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M -O -Y. You aren't calling them a protector

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of their family. You're calling them selfish.

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It implies a lack of civic duty. It implies you're

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putting your own personal comfort, your own little

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bubble above the genuine needs of the wider society.

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But let's pause there for a second because I

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want to push back on this idea that it's just

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selfishness. I mean, it can be. But when we look

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at the list of reasons people actually give for

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objecting to development, some of them seem.

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pretty practical on the surface. They do. The

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number one objection you see in the literature

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is almost always traffic and infrastructure.

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Always. The traffic is already terrible. Right.

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If I live on a quiet little cul -de -sac and

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you propose a 200 unit apartment complex on the

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corner, my first immediate thought is, I'm never

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going to find a parking spot again. And it's

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going to take me 20 minutes just to get out of

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my own driveway in the morning. Is that an irrational

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fear? It's not irrational at all. In fact, what

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it really is, is a failure of trust. A failure

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of trust in whom? In the city. In the government.

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People oppose density because they don't trust

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the city to upgrade the infrastructure to match

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the new population. They're afraid they'll get

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all the new people before they get the subway

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upgrade or the new school or the wider road.

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And are they wrong? Historically, they're often

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right. The development comes first and the infrastructure

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improvements lag by years if they come at all.

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OK, so that's the practical side. But then there's

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the big one, the financial side. For the vast

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majority of people, certainly in the US, UK,

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Canada, their home is their piggy bank. It's

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everything. It's their retirement fund. It's

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the only real wealth they have ever accumulated.

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This is so crucial to understanding the psychology

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here. We have constructed an entire economy where

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homeownership is the primary vehicle for wealth

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accumulation for the middle class. So homeowners

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are understandably hypersensitive to anything

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that might threaten that asset's value. It's

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not just a home. It's a 401k with a lawn. That's

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it. So if there's a perception, notice they say

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perception, it doesn't even have to be true,

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that... A new development will lower property

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values. The homeowner reacts as if you are trying

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to physically rob their bank account. It's just

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rational asset protection from their point of

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view. It is. And then you layer on top of that

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the more demorphous quality of life arguments.

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Like what? Pollution, noise, light. If you live

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near a proposed wind farm, you aren't just worried

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about property value in the abstract. You're

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worried about the shadow flicker from the blades

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on your living room window every single morning.

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You're worried about that low frequency hum that

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you can't escape. And then we get to the most

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powerful and maybe the most problematic phrase

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in the entire indie arsenal. I know which one

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you're going to say. Neighborhood character.

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Neighborhood character. It sounds so lovely,

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doesn't it? It evokes these images of white picket

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fences, historic brownstones, a unique sense

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of place. It's warm and fuzzy. But there's a

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but coming. There's a big but. But it is very

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often weaponized. Neighborhood character is legally

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vague enough that it can mean almost anything

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you want it to mean. So you can just pour your

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own objections into that bucket. Exactly. It

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can mean... I don't like modern architecture

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or I don't like the shadows a tall building might

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cast. But historically, and we see this in the

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data, it often serves as coded language. Coded

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for what? It's code for I don't like the kind

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of people who I imagine would live in that new

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building. So we're talking about exclusion. Social

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and economic exclusion. Yes. When the character

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you are passionately trying to preserve requires

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that no home in the neighborhood costs less than,

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say, a million dollars, you are implicitly saying

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that you want to exclude anyone who can't afford

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that price tag. You're preserving a demographic

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character as much as an architectural one. And

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this often comes up with even more charged language

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around crime and safety, doesn't it? It's the

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next step. You see a proposal for a drug detox

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center or a homeless shelter or even just a block

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of affordable housing. And suddenly the flyers

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go up warning about public safety. The fear factor.

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The stigma is incredibly powerful. There's a

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deep seated belief that density or low income

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housing automatically brings crime. Now, the

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data on this is very complex and in many cases

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shows that well -designed mixed income developments

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don't actually increase crime rates. But the

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fear of it is visceral. And fear drives turnout

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at those city council meetings. Fear gets people

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out of their houses on a Tuesday night like nothing

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else. OK, so we have this toxic brew of rational

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fears about traffic. deep financial anxieties

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about home values, and then some, let's say,

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less noble instincts about social exclusion.

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But why does this dynamic play out the exact

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same way in London, in Sydney, in New York, and

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in Toronto? There seems to be a structural reason

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why the NMBYs almost always win these fights.

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There is. And it comes down to a fundamental

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concept in political economy. It's often called

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concentrated costs and diffuse benefits. Okay,

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let's unpack that. That sounds a little academic.

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How does that math work in the real world? Okay,

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let's take your example of an airport expansion.

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A new runway is a diffuse benefit. Diffuse meaning

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spread out. Spread out very thinly. It means

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millions of travelers get slightly cheaper flights.

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There are more flight options. The regional economy

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grows a little bit. But that benefit is spread

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so, so thin. If I save $50 on my flight to Chicago

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once a year, I'm happy about it. But I'm not

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going to take a day off work to go down to City

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Hall and testify in favor of. That runway. Right.

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The benefit to you as an individual is negligible

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in the moment. You don't really feel it. Exactly.

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But the costs, the costs are concentrated. They

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fall entirely on the few thousand people who

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live directly under the new flight path. They

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get all the pain. All of it. They get the noise.

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They get the vibrations that crack their windows.

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Their daily lives are significantly negatively

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impacted. So they are highly, highly motivated.

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They're desperate. They will organize. They will

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pool their money to hire lawyers. They will show

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up to every single meeting for years. This is

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what's known as the collective action problem.

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The small group with a huge concentrated incentive

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to say no will always out -organize the massive

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silent majority that has a tiny diffuse incentive

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to say yes. That makes perfect sense. That's

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why we all want electricity, but absolutely nobody

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wants the power plant next door. That's the perfect

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analogy. And this intensity, this energy, has

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birthed a whole new vocabulary. Our sources provided

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this incredible list of acronyms that have evolved

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from NIMBY. It's like an alphabet soup of opposition.

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It really is. The movement or the mindset has

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radicalized in some places. Let's run through

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some of the best ones. I think everyone knows

00:12:17.340 --> 00:12:19.720
NIMBY by now, but have you encountered BANANA?

00:12:19.860 --> 00:12:23.740
Oh, yes. B -A -N -A -A. Build absolutely nothing

00:12:23.740 --> 00:12:26.519
anywhere near anything. Or sometimes near anyone.

00:12:26.759 --> 00:12:29.940
Right. And that captures a mindset that has really

00:12:29.940 --> 00:12:32.460
moved beyond just protect my yard into a general

00:12:32.460 --> 00:12:35.779
philosophy that all development itself is inherently

00:12:35.779 --> 00:12:39.000
bad. You see this in certain sort of... extreme

00:12:39.000 --> 00:12:42.399
environmentalist circles or in ultra -conservative

00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:44.679
preservationist groups. Okay. And then there

00:12:44.679 --> 00:12:48.100
are the KV people. CAVE. Citizens Against Virtually

00:12:48.100 --> 00:12:50.580
Everything. That one feels a little mean -spirited,

00:12:50.620 --> 00:12:52.580
doesn't it? Like something a frustrated city

00:12:52.580 --> 00:12:54.759
planner would mutter under their breath after

00:12:54.759 --> 00:12:57.159
a long meeting. It's definitely pejorative, absolutely.

00:12:57.620 --> 00:13:00.440
But it does describe a very real demographic

00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:02.720
that exists in local politics. These are the

00:13:02.720 --> 00:13:05.220
people who show up to oppose the tax hikes, the

00:13:05.220 --> 00:13:07.440
sewer rate increases, the new library, and the

00:13:07.440 --> 00:13:09.750
new housing. They just want the status quo frozen

00:13:09.750 --> 00:13:12.250
in amber forever. Now, we need to talk about

00:13:12.250 --> 00:13:14.649
the darker side of this alphabet soup. We touched

00:13:14.649 --> 00:13:17.450
on exclusion earlier, but there are terms that

00:13:17.450 --> 00:13:19.809
explicitly call out the racial and class dynamics

00:13:19.809 --> 00:13:22.529
at play. One that really stood out to me in the

00:13:22.529 --> 00:13:26.450
research was N -M -M -A, N -I -M -N. Not in my

00:13:26.450 --> 00:13:28.350
neighborhood. How is that meaningfully different

00:13:28.350 --> 00:13:31.240
from N -M -B -Y? It sounds almost the same. The

00:13:31.240 --> 00:13:33.259
distinction, and this largely comes from the

00:13:33.259 --> 00:13:35.960
work of authors like Entero Pietila, who studied

00:13:35.960 --> 00:13:38.320
the history of housing in Baltimore, is that

00:13:38.320 --> 00:13:41.399
NIM is specifically linked to the history of

00:13:41.399 --> 00:13:44.220
redlining and racially restrictive covenants.

00:13:44.259 --> 00:13:46.320
Ah, so it's not about a structure, it's about

00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:49.320
people. Exactly. It's about maintaining the racial

00:13:49.320 --> 00:13:52.860
or ethnic homogeneity of a district. It's not

00:13:52.860 --> 00:13:55.320
in my backyard, but applied to a demographic

00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:57.879
group rather than a physical building. And then

00:13:57.879 --> 00:14:00.840
there's the acronym that completely flips the

00:14:00.840 --> 00:14:05.440
power dynamic on its head. PIBBY. Place in black's

00:14:05.440 --> 00:14:08.179
backyard. That is incredibly blunt. It's jarring

00:14:08.179 --> 00:14:10.279
to even say. It's meant to be. It's a term that

00:14:10.279 --> 00:14:12.200
comes directly out of the environmental justice

00:14:12.200 --> 00:14:14.500
movement, specifically from the groundbreaking

00:14:14.500 --> 00:14:17.779
work of the sociologist Robert D. Bullard. It

00:14:17.779 --> 00:14:20.460
describes the path of least resistance. What

00:14:20.460 --> 00:14:22.159
do you mean by that? Well, think about it. If

00:14:22.159 --> 00:14:24.480
rich, predominantly white communities are effective

00:14:24.480 --> 00:14:27.360
in MEYs, if they have the lawyers, the free time

00:14:27.360 --> 00:14:30.120
and the political connections to stop the incinerator

00:14:30.120 --> 00:14:32.320
or the waste treatment plant from being built

00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:35.320
in their town. Where does that facility go? It

00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:38.100
doesn't just disappear. Society still needs to

00:14:38.100 --> 00:14:40.019
treat its waste. Right. It has to go somewhere.

00:14:40.179 --> 00:14:42.659
So it goes to the community that lacks the political

00:14:42.659 --> 00:14:44.960
capital and the resources to fight back. And

00:14:44.960 --> 00:14:46.980
historically in the United States, that has been

00:14:46.980 --> 00:14:50.879
poor, black or other minority communities. So

00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:55.600
successful NMBism in one place directly creates

00:14:55.600 --> 00:14:58.019
environmental racism in another. That is the

00:14:58.019 --> 00:15:00.590
direct and unavoidable consequence. Yes. Your

00:15:00.590 --> 00:15:03.149
victory is their burden. There was one more in

00:15:03.149 --> 00:15:05.450
the notes that I found kind of cynical, but also

00:15:05.450 --> 00:15:09.250
completely believable. Reverse in MB. Ah, yes.

00:15:09.470 --> 00:15:11.909
This is the politician's favorite trick. It sounds

00:15:11.909 --> 00:15:15.070
like it. It's basically not in my backyard unless

00:15:15.070 --> 00:15:17.250
there's a lot of federal money involved. You

00:15:17.250 --> 00:15:19.330
see this constantly after natural disasters.

00:15:19.429 --> 00:15:22.549
A politician who usually preaches small government

00:15:22.549 --> 00:15:24.850
and local control will suddenly stand in front

00:15:24.850 --> 00:15:28.320
of a camera in the wreckage and say. My district,

00:15:28.519 --> 00:15:31.340
my backyard has been devastated and we need federal

00:15:31.340 --> 00:15:33.799
funds now. So they're using the backyard framing

00:15:33.799 --> 00:15:36.740
to demand resources instead of rejecting a project.

00:15:37.059 --> 00:15:39.220
Precisely. It's a way of saying my problems matter

00:15:39.220 --> 00:15:41.940
more because they're happening here. OK, so we've

00:15:41.940 --> 00:15:44.399
established the psychology, the vocabulary, the

00:15:44.399 --> 00:15:47.039
whole ecosystem of opposition. But I want to

00:15:47.039 --> 00:15:49.500
move to what you call the main event. The price

00:15:49.500 --> 00:15:51.940
tag, because you mentioned earlier that this

00:15:51.940 --> 00:15:54.940
isn't just about local annoyance or aesthetic

00:15:54.940 --> 00:15:58.320
debates. The sources you sent over cite a study

00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:01.059
by Cheyenne Moretti that threw out a number that

00:16:01.059 --> 00:16:03.340
honestly made me do a double take. One trillion

00:16:03.340 --> 00:16:06.700
dollars. Yes. One trillion dollars in lost wages.

00:16:06.759 --> 00:16:10.559
It's a mind boggling figure. How do you even

00:16:10.559 --> 00:16:13.659
begin to calculate that? How can local zoning

00:16:13.659 --> 00:16:16.399
laws cost the entire U .S. economy a trillion

00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:19.610
dollars? It's a fascinating and powerful economic

00:16:19.610 --> 00:16:22.389
mechanism, and it all relies on a concept called

00:16:22.389 --> 00:16:25.190
agglomeration. Agglomeration, like a big cluster.

00:16:25.350 --> 00:16:27.730
Exactly. Think about Celadon Valley in the 90s

00:16:27.730 --> 00:16:30.470
or the auto industry in Detroit in the 40s or

00:16:30.470 --> 00:16:33.690
Wall Street in New York City today. Why are wages

00:16:33.690 --> 00:16:35.590
so much higher in those places? It's not just

00:16:35.590 --> 00:16:37.529
the cost of living. It's because when you pack

00:16:37.529 --> 00:16:40.490
smart, talented people and specialized companies

00:16:40.490 --> 00:16:43.389
into a dense geographic area, they become more

00:16:43.389 --> 00:16:46.250
productive. They feed off each other. Ideas spread

00:16:46.250 --> 00:16:49.490
fast. You can find the exact software engineer

00:16:49.490 --> 00:16:52.129
you need because they all live within a 20 -mile

00:16:52.129 --> 00:16:55.210
radius. You can find the exact venture capitalist

00:16:55.210 --> 00:16:58.309
you need. This is the agglomeration effect. So

00:16:58.309 --> 00:17:02.029
the city itself, the density, becomes an engine

00:17:02.029 --> 00:17:04.849
of productivity. A massive engine. A software

00:17:04.849 --> 00:17:07.450
engineer in San Jose is literally more productive.

00:17:07.529 --> 00:17:10.250
They create more economic value than the exact

00:17:10.250 --> 00:17:12.869
same engineer with the exact same skills working

00:17:12.869 --> 00:17:15.869
in a small town in Montana. Not because they're

00:17:15.869 --> 00:17:17.910
smarter, but because of the network effects of

00:17:17.910 --> 00:17:20.069
the city around them. OK, I follow that. That

00:17:20.069 --> 00:17:21.569
makes sense. So where does the trillion dollar

00:17:21.569 --> 00:17:23.809
loss come from? The loss comes when you break

00:17:23.809 --> 00:17:26.849
that engine. Shea and Moretti's argument is that

00:17:26.849 --> 00:17:29.609
because of NMBY restrictions, because cities

00:17:29.609 --> 00:17:32.470
like San Francisco, San Jose and New York made

00:17:32.470 --> 00:17:34.849
it functionally illegal to build enough housing

00:17:34.849 --> 00:17:36.890
to accommodate everyone who wanted to work there.

00:17:37.029 --> 00:17:39.150
Workers couldn't move. So that engineer has to

00:17:39.150 --> 00:17:42.079
stay in Montana. Right. or the teacher or the

00:17:42.079 --> 00:17:45.480
nurse or the biotech researcher, they have to

00:17:45.480 --> 00:17:47.819
stay in lower productivity regions because the

00:17:47.819 --> 00:17:50.740
rent in the high productivity superstar cities

00:17:50.740 --> 00:17:53.819
is mathematically impossible for them. And that's

00:17:53.819 --> 00:17:55.900
a drag on the whole economy. A massive drag.

00:17:56.059 --> 00:17:59.079
This misallocation of labor, having millions

00:17:59.079 --> 00:18:01.180
of people working in places where they are less

00:18:01.180 --> 00:18:03.420
productive than they could be, dragged down the

00:18:03.420 --> 00:18:06.500
total U .S. GDP by as much as 36 percent between

00:18:06.500 --> 00:18:10.119
1964 and 2009. And that lost productivity adds

00:18:10.119 --> 00:18:12.660
up. That's the trillion dollars. It's the money

00:18:12.660 --> 00:18:14.440
we didn't make because we locked people out of

00:18:14.440 --> 00:18:16.940
our most successful cities. That is just wild.

00:18:17.140 --> 00:18:18.940
We usually think of a housing crisis in personal

00:18:18.940 --> 00:18:21.799
terms like I can't afford my rent. But you're

00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:24.529
saying it's actually. America as a whole is poor.

00:18:24.750 --> 00:18:27.230
We are collectively poor. We have deliberately

00:18:27.230 --> 00:18:30.589
capped our own growth potential to what preserve

00:18:30.589 --> 00:18:32.490
the skyline of certain neighborhoods. OK, but

00:18:32.490 --> 00:18:34.509
let's bring it down from that 30 ,000 foot GDP

00:18:34.509 --> 00:18:36.890
level to the human level. The most visible and

00:18:36.890 --> 00:18:39.569
devastating cost of all this is obviously homelessness.

00:18:40.160 --> 00:18:42.559
The correlation is undeniable and it's heartbreaking.

00:18:42.940 --> 00:18:45.599
You can try to blame homelessness on any number

00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:48.220
of factors, drugs, mental health, personal choices,

00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:51.140
even the weather. But the single strongest statistical

00:18:51.140 --> 00:18:54.720
correlation in the data city by city is the cost

00:18:54.720 --> 00:18:57.059
of rent. It's that simple. It's that simple.

00:18:57.200 --> 00:18:59.740
When the median rent in an area exceeds roughly

00:18:59.740 --> 00:19:02.940
30 to 32 percent of the median income, homelessness

00:19:02.940 --> 00:19:06.359
rates begin to explode. It's a simple, brutal

00:19:06.359 --> 00:19:09.319
game of musical chairs. If you have 100 people

00:19:09.319 --> 00:19:11.819
in a city and only 90 available apartments they

00:19:11.819 --> 00:19:13.839
can afford, 10 people will end up on the street.

00:19:14.160 --> 00:19:16.200
It doesn't matter how hardworking or sober those

00:19:16.200 --> 00:19:18.359
10 people are, there are no chairs left. There

00:19:18.359 --> 00:19:20.299
was a story in the notes from Vancouver that

00:19:20.299 --> 00:19:23.680
really illustrated how these NMB battles impact

00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:26.960
daily life in ways that go way beyond just housing.

00:19:27.099 --> 00:19:29.220
Yeah. The daycare shortage. Oh, this is such

00:19:29.220 --> 00:19:31.920
a perfect tragic example of quality of life arguments

00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:34.460
gone completely wrong. What happened? Vancouver

00:19:34.460 --> 00:19:37.900
had a massive shortfall of daycare spots, something

00:19:37.900 --> 00:19:41.759
like 15 ,000 spots short. Parents are desperate.

00:19:42.329 --> 00:19:45.549
on waiting lists for years. A local daycare provider

00:19:45.549 --> 00:19:48.150
found a suitable location, they had the funding,

00:19:48.309 --> 00:19:50.549
and they wanted to expand to take in more kids.

00:19:50.809 --> 00:19:53.009
And the neighbors blocked it. They did. They

00:19:53.009 --> 00:19:55.750
organized and they stopped it. What could possibly

00:19:55.750 --> 00:19:58.920
be the objection? We hate children. Not explicitly,

00:19:58.980 --> 00:20:01.480
of course. The official objections were noise

00:20:01.480 --> 00:20:03.940
and traffic. Noise and traffic. The sound of

00:20:03.940 --> 00:20:06.400
children playing outside during the day. The

00:20:06.400 --> 00:20:08.539
traffic from parents dropping their kids off

00:20:08.539 --> 00:20:11.359
at 8 a .m. and picking them up at 5 .00 p .m.

00:20:11.359 --> 00:20:14.160
And the city council bowed to that pressure and

00:20:14.160 --> 00:20:17.319
rejected the daycare's expansion permit. So to

00:20:17.319 --> 00:20:19.420
preserve the quiet morning coffee of a handful

00:20:19.420 --> 00:20:22.259
of neighbors, dozens of families were left without

00:20:22.259 --> 00:20:24.920
essential child care. That is the tradeoff in

00:20:24.920 --> 00:20:27.630
action. It's not abstract. It's real. That really

00:20:27.630 --> 00:20:30.269
clarifies the stakes. It's not just about shiny

00:20:30.269 --> 00:20:32.430
skyscrapers. It's about the basic infrastructure

00:20:32.430 --> 00:20:35.349
that allows families to function. And then looking

00:20:35.349 --> 00:20:37.190
at the structural costs, we have to circle back

00:20:37.190 --> 00:20:40.490
to segregation. We do. We mentioned PIBY and

00:20:40.490 --> 00:20:42.789
the environmental justice angle, but the data

00:20:42.789 --> 00:20:45.769
on zoning itself is just stark. The invention

00:20:45.769 --> 00:20:49.200
of single family zoning. These laws that say

00:20:49.200 --> 00:20:52.000
you cannot build anything other than one detached

00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:55.440
house on a large lot was often implemented explicitly

00:20:55.440 --> 00:20:58.059
to replace racial covenants after the Supreme

00:20:58.059 --> 00:21:00.380
Court struck him down as unconstitutional. Wow.

00:21:00.559 --> 00:21:03.339
So when the court said you can no longer put

00:21:03.339 --> 00:21:05.279
in the deed that black people can't buy houses

00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:07.789
here. The cities pivoted. They said, OK, we'll

00:21:07.789 --> 00:21:09.849
just ban the type of housing that lower income

00:21:09.849 --> 00:21:12.109
people, which included a large proportion of

00:21:12.109 --> 00:21:15.109
minority families, could afford. No more duplexes,

00:21:15.109 --> 00:21:17.289
no more apartment buildings. So it's economic

00:21:17.289 --> 00:21:19.849
segregation that functions as a proxy for racial

00:21:19.849 --> 00:21:22.150
segregation. Exactly. And that legacy is still

00:21:22.150 --> 00:21:24.930
with us. Today, the U .S. has a nationwide shortage

00:21:24.930 --> 00:21:28.309
of about 7 .4 million affordable homes for extremely

00:21:28.309 --> 00:21:30.589
low income households. You don't get a number

00:21:30.589 --> 00:21:32.910
that big by accident. You get it by decades of

00:21:32.910 --> 00:21:35.130
deliberate policy choices. So the pressure builds.

00:21:35.180 --> 00:21:38.700
Rents skyrocket. The national economy drags.

00:21:39.000 --> 00:21:41.859
Homelessness gets worse. And eventually, a counterforce

00:21:41.859 --> 00:21:45.130
has to emerge. It has to. Enter the YMBYs. The

00:21:45.130 --> 00:21:47.049
yes in my backyard movement. It really feels

00:21:47.049 --> 00:21:48.849
like they just appeared out of nowhere in the

00:21:48.849 --> 00:21:50.529
last, what, 10 years? Where does this come from?

00:21:50.710 --> 00:21:52.569
Well, the term itself was actually floating around

00:21:52.569 --> 00:21:55.509
in the 80s among nuclear power advocates, funny

00:21:55.509 --> 00:21:58.269
enough. They were trying to push a yes in many

00:21:58.269 --> 00:22:01.410
backyards message for power plants. But the modern

00:22:01.410 --> 00:22:03.690
political movement as we know it is really a

00:22:03.690 --> 00:22:06.769
child of the San Francisco Bay Area in the 2010s.

00:22:06.789 --> 00:22:09.549
Ground zero for the housing crisis. The absolute

00:22:09.549 --> 00:22:12.910
epicenter. You had the second tech boom. Facebook,

00:22:13.250 --> 00:22:16.670
Google, Uber. They were hiring thousands and

00:22:16.670 --> 00:22:18.809
thousands of people, high salaries, great jobs.

00:22:19.009 --> 00:22:21.289
But San Francisco and the surrounding Silicon

00:22:21.289 --> 00:22:23.650
Valley cities were building almost no new housing.

00:22:23.809 --> 00:22:26.210
A recipe for disaster. Total disaster. You had

00:22:26.210 --> 00:22:28.730
these stories of 25 -year -old software engineers

00:22:28.730 --> 00:22:32.450
making $150 ,000 a year who were still living

00:22:32.450 --> 00:22:34.890
in dorm -style bunk beds because there were simply

00:22:34.890 --> 00:22:36.910
no apartments to rent. And of course, when those

00:22:36.910 --> 00:22:39.390
tech workers can't find housing, they just use

00:22:39.390 --> 00:22:41.509
their high salaries to bid up the price of the

00:22:41.509 --> 00:22:43.920
existing. housing stock. Pushing out the teachers,

00:22:44.079 --> 00:22:46.400
the artists, the firefighters, the people who

00:22:46.400 --> 00:22:49.099
make a city run, the displacement was brutal.

00:22:49.299 --> 00:22:52.500
So a group of activists, many of them young tech

00:22:52.500 --> 00:22:55.279
workers themselves, started saying, wait a minute,

00:22:55.400 --> 00:22:58.819
the problem isn't the new jobs. The problem is

00:22:58.819 --> 00:23:01.799
the lack of walls and roofs. And this is important

00:23:01.799 --> 00:23:04.519
context from the sources. The movement got some

00:23:04.519 --> 00:23:07.079
serious early funding from tech leaders, right?

00:23:07.240 --> 00:23:10.190
It did. People like Dustin Moskovitz from Facebook,

00:23:10.509 --> 00:23:13.269
Jeremy Stoppelman from Yelp, the Collison brothers

00:23:13.269 --> 00:23:15.710
who founded Stripe, they put money into early

00:23:15.710 --> 00:23:18.710
YMBY organizations. Which I imagine gives the

00:23:18.710 --> 00:23:21.029
movement a specific flavor. It made some people

00:23:21.029 --> 00:23:23.509
suspicious. Oh, absolutely. It allowed critics

00:23:23.509 --> 00:23:26.529
to immediately paint YMBYs as nothing more than

00:23:26.529 --> 00:23:29.309
shills for big tech or for big real estate developers.

00:23:29.710 --> 00:23:31.970
You just want to help your rich friends get richer.

00:23:32.210 --> 00:23:34.150
But the coalition that actually formed on the

00:23:34.150 --> 00:23:37.210
ground was much weirder than that. It's one of

00:23:37.210 --> 00:23:39.829
the weirdest and most fascinating political alliances

00:23:39.829 --> 00:23:42.390
in modern politics. You called it the strange

00:23:42.390 --> 00:23:44.849
bedfellows coalition, and that's perfect. It's

00:23:44.849 --> 00:23:47.430
a perfect political horseshoe. It is. So on the

00:23:47.430 --> 00:23:49.730
left flank, you have the modern liberals, the

00:23:49.730 --> 00:23:52.170
urbanists and the environmentalists. What's their

00:23:52.170 --> 00:23:54.849
motivation for wanting to build more? For them,

00:23:54.890 --> 00:23:57.630
it's about climate injustice. They know that

00:23:57.630 --> 00:24:00.170
transportation is the single biggest source of

00:24:00.170 --> 00:24:02.829
carbon emissions in the U .S., about 29 percent

00:24:02.829 --> 00:24:05.599
of the total. And that's mostly cars. Mostly

00:24:05.599 --> 00:24:08.539
cars. If you force people to live in low density

00:24:08.539 --> 00:24:11.039
sprawl, they have to drive everywhere for everything.

00:24:11.240 --> 00:24:13.680
If you let them live in dense, walkable cities

00:24:13.680 --> 00:24:15.980
with good public transit, they walk, they bike,

00:24:16.039 --> 00:24:19.019
they take the train. So for them, building dense

00:24:19.019 --> 00:24:22.420
housing is a core climate solution. And the justice

00:24:22.420 --> 00:24:25.460
angle. They view exclusionary zoning as a tool

00:24:25.460 --> 00:24:28.000
of racial and economic segregation that needs

00:24:28.000 --> 00:24:30.160
to be dismantled as a matter of civil rights.

00:24:30.880 --> 00:24:32.960
Okay, so that's the left. Pretty straightforward.

00:24:33.059 --> 00:24:34.779
Who are they holding hands with on the other

00:24:34.779 --> 00:24:37.240
side of the aisle? The libertarian right. The

00:24:37.240 --> 00:24:39.480
free market absolutists. Wait, how does that

00:24:39.480 --> 00:24:42.069
work? What's their motivation? For them, it's

00:24:42.069 --> 00:24:45.410
all about property rights and deregulation. They

00:24:45.410 --> 00:24:47.990
look at a zoning kind of that says you own this

00:24:47.990 --> 00:24:50.349
piece of land, but you are forbidden from building

00:24:50.349 --> 00:24:53.569
a duplex on it. And they see government tyranny,

00:24:53.569 --> 00:24:56.349
a violation of their fundamental violation of

00:24:56.349 --> 00:24:58.670
their property rights. They believe that if you

00:24:58.670 --> 00:25:00.549
just get the government out of the way, remove

00:25:00.549 --> 00:25:03.349
all these burdensome regulations, the free market

00:25:03.349 --> 00:25:05.410
will efficiently solve the housing shortage.

00:25:05.470 --> 00:25:08.990
So you literally have socialists marching alongside.

00:25:09.920 --> 00:25:12.519
Ayn Rand libertarians, both demanding that we

00:25:12.519 --> 00:25:15.359
build more apartment blocks. It's a bizarre sight

00:25:15.359 --> 00:25:17.779
to behold, but it's been surprisingly effective.

00:25:18.140 --> 00:25:20.400
But there's a massive point of contention here,

00:25:20.480 --> 00:25:22.900
a real philosophical divide that we need to address,

00:25:23.039 --> 00:25:24.339
because I think a lot of our listeners probably

00:25:24.339 --> 00:25:27.180
stumble on this exact point. It's the supply

00:25:27.180 --> 00:25:30.519
and demand argument. My MBYs say build more of

00:25:30.519 --> 00:25:34.079
anything, even luxury housing, and overall prices

00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:36.619
will go down or at least stabilize. But a lot

00:25:36.619 --> 00:25:38.200
of people hear that and think, wait a minute.

00:25:38.509 --> 00:25:40.769
If a developer built a shiny new tower with two

00:25:40.769 --> 00:25:43.589
bedroom apartments renting for $4 ,000 a month,

00:25:43.730 --> 00:25:46.490
how does that possibly help a regular person?

00:25:46.650 --> 00:25:48.450
Doesn't that just induce more gentrification?

00:25:48.829 --> 00:25:51.950
This is the core debate. It's the absolute heart

00:25:51.950 --> 00:25:55.369
of the matter. The economic concept the YMBYs

00:25:55.369 --> 00:25:58.950
rely on is called filtering or sometimes vacancy

00:25:58.950 --> 00:26:02.119
chains. OK, can you explain that mechanism? How

00:26:02.119 --> 00:26:05.299
is a vacancy chain supposed to work? Right. Imagine

00:26:05.299 --> 00:26:07.559
a housing market like a ladder. The very top,

00:26:07.579 --> 00:26:09.819
you have the wealthiest person in a constrained

00:26:09.819 --> 00:26:13.009
market. A city where no new luxury housing is

00:26:13.009 --> 00:26:15.549
being built. That rich person doesn't just vanish.

00:26:15.569 --> 00:26:17.829
They still need a place to live. So what do they

00:26:17.829 --> 00:26:19.950
do? They go into a nice middle class neighborhood

00:26:19.950 --> 00:26:23.589
and buy a beautiful old Victorian house. And

00:26:23.589 --> 00:26:25.490
then they renovate it. Right. They gut renovate

00:26:25.490 --> 00:26:27.509
it and they outbid the middle class family who

00:26:27.509 --> 00:26:29.230
wanted to buy it. So the middle class family

00:26:29.230 --> 00:26:32.099
gets. Bump down a rung on the ladder. Exactly.

00:26:32.299 --> 00:26:34.720
They have to go look in a slightly cheaper working

00:26:34.720 --> 00:26:37.279
class neighborhood. And with their budget, they

00:26:37.279 --> 00:26:39.240
end up outbidding the working class family that

00:26:39.240 --> 00:26:41.259
live there. And that working class family gets

00:26:41.259 --> 00:26:43.839
pushed out of the city entirely or into a much

00:26:43.839 --> 00:26:46.579
worse apartment. That's displacement in action.

00:26:47.160 --> 00:26:49.359
OK, so the vacancy chain or filtering theory

00:26:49.359 --> 00:26:51.920
says what? It says if you build that shiny new

00:26:51.920 --> 00:26:55.400
luxury tower, the rich person moves there. They

00:26:55.400 --> 00:26:57.420
happily pay for the new construction and the

00:26:57.420 --> 00:27:00.500
fancy amenities. And by doing so, they leave

00:27:00.500 --> 00:27:03.900
the beautiful old Victorian house alone. The

00:27:03.900 --> 00:27:06.220
middle class family can then buy the Victorian.

00:27:06.519 --> 00:27:08.619
The working class family gets to stay in their

00:27:08.619 --> 00:27:11.480
apartment. By adding supply at the top, you relieve

00:27:11.480 --> 00:27:13.960
the pressure all the way down the chain. Does

00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:17.660
the data actually support that? Because I have

00:27:17.660 --> 00:27:19.539
to be honest, it sounds a little bit like trickle

00:27:19.539 --> 00:27:22.019
-down housing, which has the same ring as trickle

00:27:22.019 --> 00:27:25.079
-down economics, a theory with a pretty bad reputation.

00:27:25.420 --> 00:27:27.440
It's very controversial, and the research is

00:27:27.440 --> 00:27:29.720
mixed. Some older studies showed that filtering

00:27:29.720 --> 00:27:32.700
does happen, but it's incredibly slow. It can

00:27:32.700 --> 00:27:35.240
take decades for a unit that was once luxury

00:27:35.240 --> 00:27:37.900
to become truly affordable to low -income people.

00:27:38.160 --> 00:27:40.319
So it's not a quick fix. Not for affordability.

00:27:40.920 --> 00:27:43.599
However, a lot of newer research suggests the

00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:45.720
effect on rents across the board is much faster.

00:27:46.089 --> 00:27:48.549
When you build a lot of new units, even expensive

00:27:48.549 --> 00:27:51.470
ones, the overall vacancy rate in the city goes

00:27:51.470 --> 00:27:54.549
up. When there are more empty apartments, landlords

00:27:54.549 --> 00:27:56.970
lose their leverage. They can't just hike your

00:27:56.970 --> 00:27:59.470
rent by $500 a month because you have other options.

00:27:59.710 --> 00:28:01.990
You can actually move. But not everyone buys

00:28:01.990 --> 00:28:04.890
that logic. Yeah. Not by a long shot. And this

00:28:04.890 --> 00:28:07.289
brings us to the organized opposition to the

00:28:07.289 --> 00:28:10.609
way me wise. And it's not just the grumpy neighbor

00:28:10.609 --> 00:28:13.539
with the leaf blower. There is a very coherent

00:28:13.539 --> 00:28:16.539
ideological opposition on the left. Yes. This

00:28:16.539 --> 00:28:19.519
is where we get yet another acronym, P -H -M

00:28:19.519 --> 00:28:23.059
-B -Y. P -H -I -M -B -Y. Which it stands for?

00:28:23.220 --> 00:28:25.160
Public housing in my backyard. So these are the

00:28:25.160 --> 00:28:27.319
folks who say market rate housing is the enemy.

00:28:27.519 --> 00:28:30.140
That's their core belief. They argue that private

00:28:30.140 --> 00:28:32.740
for -profit developers exist for one reason,

00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:35.539
to make a profit, period. They will never, ever

00:28:35.539 --> 00:28:37.880
build housing for the very poor because there's

00:28:37.880 --> 00:28:40.220
simply no margin in it. So they're supply skeptics.

00:28:40.559 --> 00:28:43.339
They are deep supply skeptics. They believe that

00:28:43.339 --> 00:28:46.559
housing isn't like widgets. They fear that building

00:28:46.559 --> 00:28:49.059
new luxury buildings just changes the neighborhood's

00:28:49.059 --> 00:28:51.779
vibe, attracts even more rich people to move

00:28:51.779 --> 00:28:55.799
and what they call induced demand and actually

00:28:55.799 --> 00:28:59.059
accelerates the process of gentrification. So

00:28:59.059 --> 00:29:02.460
for them, the answer is we want 100 percent affordable,

00:29:02.720 --> 00:29:05.680
publicly funded social housing or we want nothing.

00:29:05.859 --> 00:29:07.579
And what about the opposition from the right?

00:29:07.960 --> 00:29:10.160
Well, you have the populist right. If you look

00:29:10.160 --> 00:29:12.180
at the rhetoric from people like, say, Donald

00:29:12.180 --> 00:29:14.960
Trump or Tucker Carlson, they have very effectively

00:29:14.960 --> 00:29:18.079
framed YMB policies, especially things like ending

00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:20.599
single family zoning as a direct attack on the

00:29:20.599 --> 00:29:22.839
American dream. The classic they are coming for

00:29:22.839 --> 00:29:25.279
your suburbs. It's that exact line. The radical

00:29:25.279 --> 00:29:27.420
left wants to abolish the suburbs. They want

00:29:27.420 --> 00:29:29.839
to force your town to build low income housing

00:29:29.839 --> 00:29:31.920
next to your beautiful home and destroy your

00:29:31.920 --> 00:29:34.500
property values. It becomes a defense of local

00:29:34.500 --> 00:29:37.039
sovereignty against what they see as overbearing.

00:29:37.319 --> 00:29:39.599
state or federal mandates. So the Whamby Whys

00:29:39.599 --> 00:29:41.240
are really stuck in the middle. They're getting

00:29:41.240 --> 00:29:44.420
shot at by the far left for being corporate shills

00:29:44.420 --> 00:29:47.140
and developer cronies, and by the far right for

00:29:47.140 --> 00:29:50.220
being socialist destroyers of the suburban way

00:29:50.220 --> 00:29:53.059
of life. It is a very tough political place to

00:29:53.059 --> 00:29:55.500
be. Okay, let's ground all this theory in reality.

00:29:55.759 --> 00:29:58.019
We've talked about the ideas, but the best way

00:29:58.019 --> 00:30:00.519
to really understand the trenches of the NMB

00:30:00.519 --> 00:30:03.759
wars is to look at the battlefields. And we have

00:30:03.759 --> 00:30:06.339
some incredible, almost unbelievable case studies

00:30:06.339 --> 00:30:08.799
from the sources. Let's start with the Green

00:30:08.799 --> 00:30:11.900
Conflict, the fight over energy. This is one

00:30:11.900 --> 00:30:14.259
of the great ironies of the modern age. You have

00:30:14.259 --> 00:30:18.099
entire communities of people who, on paper, Believe

00:30:18.099 --> 00:30:20.119
fervently in climate change, they vote for green

00:30:20.119 --> 00:30:23.000
energy policies, but they will fight to the death

00:30:23.000 --> 00:30:25.599
to stop the actual infrastructure required to

00:30:25.599 --> 00:30:27.920
deliver it. And Cape Cod is the classic textbook

00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:30.220
example of this, right? Cape Wind Project. It

00:30:30.220 --> 00:30:32.700
was supposed to be America's first major offshore

00:30:32.700 --> 00:30:36.099
wind farm, a massive, ambitious project. But

00:30:36.099 --> 00:30:37.900
it was proposed to be built in the waters off

00:30:37.900 --> 00:30:39.799
the coast of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

00:30:39.920 --> 00:30:41.720
Home to some of the wealthiest and most politically

00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:44.539
connected people in the entire country. Exactly.

00:30:44.640 --> 00:30:46.200
We're talking about the Kennedy family, among

00:30:46.200 --> 00:30:49.039
others. And they fought it and they killed it.

00:30:49.160 --> 00:30:51.119
But they didn't kill it by saying climate change

00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:54.339
is a hoax. No, that's the key. The arguments

00:30:54.339 --> 00:30:57.200
were never about the science. The arguments were

00:30:57.200 --> 00:31:00.839
visual pollution. They said it will spoil the

00:31:00.839 --> 00:31:03.859
pristine natural horizon. They said it will hurt

00:31:03.859 --> 00:31:06.420
the local fishing industry. They tied it up in

00:31:06.420 --> 00:31:09.599
litigation and bureaucracy for so long that the

00:31:09.599 --> 00:31:12.160
project eventually just withered and died on

00:31:12.160 --> 00:31:14.579
the vine. There was a counterexample from Australia

00:31:14.579 --> 00:31:16.539
in the notes that I absolutely loved. It was

00:31:16.539 --> 00:31:19.079
like a piece of performance art. The Manly Beach

00:31:19.079 --> 00:31:21.079
prank. Oh, this was just brilliant political

00:31:21.079 --> 00:31:24.119
theater. So there's a prominent Australian politician

00:31:24.119 --> 00:31:27.259
named Zali Stegall. And she's a huge advocate

00:31:27.259 --> 00:31:29.759
for climate action. Her political opponents,

00:31:29.859 --> 00:31:32.299
who wanted to expose what they saw as the hypocrisy

00:31:32.299 --> 00:31:35.000
of wealthy environmentalists, started a petition.

00:31:35.119 --> 00:31:37.519
What was the petition for? To build a massive

00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:40.599
wind farm right on Manly Beach, which is this

00:31:40.599 --> 00:31:44.200
iconic, beautiful, world -famous surf spot right

00:31:44.200 --> 00:31:46.720
in the heart of her wealthy electorate. A completely

00:31:46.720 --> 00:31:48.980
tongue -in -cheek proposal, obviously. Yeah,

00:31:49.019 --> 00:31:50.859
totally. Nobody actually thought it would be

00:31:50.859 --> 00:31:52.839
built, but it forced the conversation. It was

00:31:52.839 --> 00:31:54.859
a way of asking the question, you say you want

00:31:54.859 --> 00:31:57.180
wing energy. Here's a spot with a lot of wind.

00:31:57.299 --> 00:31:59.460
Do you want it here on your beautiful beach?

00:31:59.559 --> 00:32:01.920
It perfectly highlights that deep discomfort.

00:32:02.220 --> 00:32:04.660
Okay, then there's high -speed rail. Another

00:32:04.660 --> 00:32:08.299
massive infrastructure project. Look at the UK's

00:32:08.299 --> 00:32:11.440
HS2 project. It has been an absolute disaster

00:32:11.440 --> 00:32:14.819
of delays and ballooning costs. And a huge part

00:32:14.819 --> 00:32:17.440
of that is local opposition. You have these staunchly

00:32:17.440 --> 00:32:19.440
conservative constituencies in the countryside

00:32:19.440 --> 00:32:23.220
revolting because the proposed train line cuts

00:32:23.220 --> 00:32:25.460
through their pristine fields and tunnels under

00:32:25.460 --> 00:32:27.200
their historic villages. And they don't even

00:32:27.200 --> 00:32:29.319
get to use it. That's the rub. They get all the

00:32:29.319 --> 00:32:31.220
noise and all the construction disruption, but

00:32:31.220 --> 00:32:32.779
the train doesn't actually stop there. It just

00:32:32.779 --> 00:32:35.279
whooshes by at 200 miles per hour on its way

00:32:35.279 --> 00:32:37.980
from London to Birmingham. Concentrated costs,

00:32:38.339 --> 00:32:41.839
diffused benefits. Textbook case, right there.

00:32:42.119 --> 00:32:44.359
Okay, but let's get into the real housing wars.

00:32:44.619 --> 00:32:47.079
Because there is one story from San Francisco

00:32:47.079 --> 00:32:49.839
that I think perfectly absurdly encapsulates

00:32:49.839 --> 00:32:53.640
the entire process. The historic laundromat.

00:32:53.759 --> 00:32:57.240
The saga of 2918 Mission Street. This should

00:32:57.240 --> 00:33:00.039
be made into a movie. It's a tragicomedy. Set

00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:02.140
the scene for us. What was the proposal? Okay.

00:33:02.440 --> 00:33:04.579
You have a property owner, a man named Robert

00:33:04.579 --> 00:33:07.319
Tillman. He owns a laundromat. It's a simple

00:33:07.319 --> 00:33:08.920
one -story building in the Mission District.

00:33:09.279 --> 00:33:11.740
He wants to tear it down and build an eight -story

00:33:11.740 --> 00:33:14.119
residential building with 75 apartments. In the

00:33:14.119 --> 00:33:16.700
middle of the worst housing crisis in San Francisco

00:33:16.700 --> 00:33:20.059
history. Sounds like a slam dunk, right? A no

00:33:20.059 --> 00:33:22.519
-brainer. You would think. It took him nearly

00:33:22.519 --> 00:33:25.500
five years to get it approved. Five years. Why?

00:33:25.660 --> 00:33:28.460
What could possibly take five years? The opposition

00:33:28.460 --> 00:33:30.579
threw everything at the wall to see what would

00:33:30.579 --> 00:33:33.339
stick. A local activist group called Collier

00:33:33.339 --> 00:33:36.279
24 opposed it because they feared it would cause

00:33:36.279 --> 00:33:39.279
gentrification. But the tactics they used were

00:33:39.279 --> 00:33:42.839
pure bureaucratic warfare. First, they demanded

00:33:42.839 --> 00:33:46.599
shadow studies. Shadow studies. Yes. The city

00:33:46.599 --> 00:33:48.779
had to commission a detailed analysis of whether

00:33:48.779 --> 00:33:51.160
the proposed new building would cast a shadow

00:33:51.160 --> 00:33:53.940
on a nearby playground. And not all day, just

00:33:53.940 --> 00:33:56.079
specifically in the late afternoon for a few

00:33:56.079 --> 00:33:58.680
months of the year. The argument was that losing

00:33:58.680 --> 00:34:01.579
a sliver of sunlight on a sandbox was legitimate

00:34:01.579 --> 00:34:04.700
grounds to deny housing for 75 families. That

00:34:04.700 --> 00:34:06.720
is just maddening. The level of absurdity is

00:34:06.720 --> 00:34:09.619
off the charts. But it gets so much better. When

00:34:09.619 --> 00:34:12.400
the shadow argument didn't completely work, they

00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:14.989
pivoted. They then argued that the laundromat

00:34:14.989 --> 00:34:18.530
itself was a historic resource. A historic laundromat.

00:34:18.769 --> 00:34:21.269
What did George Washington wash his socks there?

00:34:21.369 --> 00:34:23.530
No, the argument, and I'm not making this up,

00:34:23.570 --> 00:34:26.090
was that a local community organization had briefly

00:34:26.090 --> 00:34:28.309
rented some office space above the laundromat

00:34:28.309 --> 00:34:31.570
back in the 1970s, and therefore this unremarkable

00:34:31.570 --> 00:34:34.090
stucco building was a priceless cultural monument

00:34:34.090 --> 00:34:36.190
that had to be preserved. That feels like they

00:34:36.190 --> 00:34:38.630
weren't arguing in good faith. It feels like

00:34:38.630 --> 00:34:40.489
they were just exploiting the rules to get what

00:34:40.489 --> 00:34:43.519
they wanted. That is the very essence of weaponized

00:34:43.519 --> 00:34:46.559
NMBism. You take the environmental and historic

00:34:46.559 --> 00:34:48.940
preservation laws, which were written with very

00:34:48.940 --> 00:34:51.619
good intentions to save redwood forests and actual

00:34:51.619 --> 00:34:54.420
historic buildings, and you twist them to freeze

00:34:54.420 --> 00:34:57.119
a city in time and stop any and all change. I

00:34:57.119 --> 00:35:00.059
want to pivot now to Japan, because in a lot

00:35:00.059 --> 00:35:02.920
of urbanist and YMBY circles, Japan is often

00:35:02.920 --> 00:35:05.360
held up as this kind of paradise where you can

00:35:05.360 --> 00:35:07.260
build anything you want. There's no opposition.

00:35:07.639 --> 00:35:11.289
But the history there is incredibly... shockingly

00:35:11.289 --> 00:35:13.809
violent. It is not a paradise of social harmony.

00:35:13.969 --> 00:35:15.809
Not at all. You just have to look at the Sam

00:35:15.809 --> 00:35:18.250
Rizuka struggle. This was the battle over Narita

00:35:18.250 --> 00:35:20.510
Airport, the main international airport outside

00:35:20.510 --> 00:35:23.670
Tokyo back in the 1960s and 70s. The government

00:35:23.670 --> 00:35:26.530
wanted to build a massive new airport. The local

00:35:26.530 --> 00:35:28.409
farmers who had worked that land for generations

00:35:28.409 --> 00:35:30.889
said no. And they didn't just write angry letters

00:35:30.889 --> 00:35:33.690
to the editor. No, this was not a polite town

00:35:33.690 --> 00:35:37.010
hall meeting. The farmers formed alliances with

00:35:37.010 --> 00:35:40.030
radical far -left student groups. They built

00:35:40.030 --> 00:35:42.829
fortresses, literal towers made of steel and

00:35:42.829 --> 00:35:45.190
wood on their land to physically block the construction

00:35:45.190 --> 00:35:48.130
of the runways. They dug networks of underground

00:35:48.130 --> 00:35:50.510
tunnels to stage surprise attacks. It turned

00:35:50.510 --> 00:35:53.239
into an actual war. It was a low -grade civil

00:35:53.239 --> 00:35:55.900
war. There were pitched battles with thousands

00:35:55.900 --> 00:35:59.320
of riot police. Protesters used Molotov cocktails.

00:35:59.760 --> 00:36:02.199
Riot police used water cannons and battering

00:36:02.199 --> 00:36:04.519
rams. Several police officers and protesters

00:36:04.519 --> 00:36:06.320
were killed over the course of the struggle.

00:36:06.500 --> 00:36:08.960
It delayed the airport's full completion for

00:36:08.960 --> 00:36:11.460
decades. That really puts the fight over historic

00:36:11.460 --> 00:36:14.369
laundromat. into perspective. It shows that the

00:36:14.369 --> 00:36:17.090
desire to defend one's home and one's land is

00:36:17.090 --> 00:36:19.789
a primal, powerful human instinct. It's not just

00:36:19.789 --> 00:36:22.010
a quirky American thing. There's another Japanese

00:36:22.010 --> 00:36:24.670
example in the notes, the Odakyu Railway, that

00:36:24.670 --> 00:36:26.829
shows a different and maybe more modern outcome.

00:36:27.230 --> 00:36:30.489
Right. The Odakyu Line is a major commuter railway

00:36:30.489 --> 00:36:33.210
that runs into Tokyo. The commute was becoming

00:36:33.210 --> 00:36:35.730
crushing. You've seen the videos of station attendants

00:36:35.730 --> 00:36:37.909
literally shoving people into the packed trains.

00:36:38.250 --> 00:36:41.130
They desperately needed to expand from two tracks

00:36:41.130 --> 00:36:43.309
to four tracks to increase capacity. But the

00:36:43.309 --> 00:36:46.500
line ran through Setagaya. A wealthy, dense residential

00:36:46.500 --> 00:36:49.780
district. And the local NMBYs fought it for decades.

00:36:50.159 --> 00:36:52.539
They took the railway to court over the land

00:36:52.539 --> 00:36:55.320
acquisition. They organized, they protested,

00:36:55.320 --> 00:36:57.519
they refused to sell their small parcels of land.

00:36:57.780 --> 00:36:59.590
So what did the railway company do? Did they

00:36:59.590 --> 00:37:02.329
give up? No. They realized they would never win

00:37:02.329 --> 00:37:05.250
the land war on the surface. So at an enormous,

00:37:05.409 --> 00:37:08.969
mind -boggling expense, they tunneled. They built

00:37:08.969 --> 00:37:11.110
the new tracks underground and stacked the railway,

00:37:11.269 --> 00:37:13.610
with express trains on one level and local trains

00:37:13.610 --> 00:37:16.409
on another. They literally went under the MBYs

00:37:16.409 --> 00:37:18.789
to get the project done. That is an incredibly

00:37:18.789 --> 00:37:21.090
expensive workaround. It's the price of resistance.

00:37:21.590 --> 00:37:24.190
Sometimes it's cheaper to spend billions on tunneling

00:37:24.190 --> 00:37:26.429
than it is to fight for years in court. Let's

00:37:26.429 --> 00:37:28.849
quickly touch on what the sources call institutionalization.

00:37:28.650 --> 00:37:31.730
Institutional NIMBYism Because sometimes the

00:37:31.730 --> 00:37:34.690
NIMBY isn't an individual homeowner. Sometimes

00:37:34.690 --> 00:37:37.610
it's an entire neighborhood fighting a powerhouse

00:37:37.610 --> 00:37:39.710
institution like a university. And Berkeley,

00:37:39.849 --> 00:37:41.809
California is the prime example. You have UC

00:37:41.809 --> 00:37:44.230
Berkeley, one of the world's great public universities.

00:37:44.550 --> 00:37:46.670
The state of California needs to educate more

00:37:46.670 --> 00:37:49.250
students. Demand is through the roof. But the

00:37:49.250 --> 00:37:51.809
homeowners in the city of Berkeley, many of whom

00:37:51.809 --> 00:37:54.670
are wealthy alumni themselves, sued the university.

00:37:55.130 --> 00:37:57.670
They sued them to do what? To cap student enrollment.

00:37:58.030 --> 00:38:00.750
They sued to stop. the university from admitting

00:38:00.750 --> 00:38:03.230
more students. On what grounds could they possibly

00:38:03.230 --> 00:38:05.789
sue to stop kids from going to college? They

00:38:05.789 --> 00:38:09.150
use a powerful state law called CEQ, the California

00:38:09.150 --> 00:38:12.250
Environmental Quality Act. They argued successfully

00:38:12.250 --> 00:38:14.750
in court that students are a form of environmental

00:38:14.750 --> 00:38:17.429
pollution. You're kidding me. No, the argument

00:38:17.429 --> 00:38:20.949
was. More students mean more noise, more trash,

00:38:21.150 --> 00:38:23.610
more traffic, more parties. Therefore, under

00:38:23.610 --> 00:38:25.550
the law, an increase in the student population

00:38:25.550 --> 00:38:28.510
is a negative environmental impact that must

00:38:28.510 --> 00:38:31.530
be mitigated. And a judge actually agreed and

00:38:31.530 --> 00:38:33.210
ordered the university to freeze enrollment.

00:38:33.590 --> 00:38:35.769
Imagine getting your acceptance letter to your

00:38:35.769 --> 00:38:38.289
dream school and then having it revoked because

00:38:38.289 --> 00:38:40.210
a neighbor is worried about noise from a party.

00:38:40.510 --> 00:38:43.670
It completely redefines the idea of students

00:38:43.670 --> 00:38:46.989
from the future of our society into an environmental

00:38:46.989 --> 00:38:49.369
contaminant that needs to be controlled. And

00:38:49.369 --> 00:38:51.309
maybe the most heartbreaking case of all comes

00:38:51.309 --> 00:38:54.940
from Ashtead in the UK. This one, I have to say,

00:38:55.019 --> 00:38:57.539
just made me angry to read. It should. It's an

00:38:57.539 --> 00:39:00.800
awful story. A well -known military charity wanted

00:39:00.800 --> 00:39:03.860
to buy a large house in the town and convert

00:39:03.860 --> 00:39:06.199
it into a respite center for the families of

00:39:06.199 --> 00:39:09.039
severely wounded soldiers. These are parents

00:39:09.039 --> 00:39:11.340
visiting their sons and daughters who have lost

00:39:11.340 --> 00:39:14.400
limbs in war who are getting treatment at a nearby

00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:17.340
specialist hospital. A noble cause if there ever

00:39:17.340 --> 00:39:20.380
was one. And the neighbors opposed it. They fought

00:39:20.380 --> 00:39:22.829
it tooth and nail. At first, they used the standard

00:39:22.829 --> 00:39:26.349
excuses, traffic, noise. But then they went further.

00:39:26.469 --> 00:39:29.030
They argued in public meetings that having military

00:39:29.030 --> 00:39:31.210
families in the neighborhood might increase the

00:39:31.210 --> 00:39:33.610
risk of a terrorist attack in their town. That's

00:39:33.610 --> 00:39:36.269
just unbelievable. No heroes in my backyard?

00:39:36.550 --> 00:39:38.929
It strips away all the polite veneer, doesn't

00:39:38.929 --> 00:39:41.289
it? When you find yourself arguing that your

00:39:41.289 --> 00:39:43.269
parking spot is more important than the family

00:39:43.269 --> 00:39:45.670
of a wounded soldier, you really have to take

00:39:45.670 --> 00:39:48.269
a hard look at your priorities. So we've tainted

00:39:48.269 --> 00:39:50.880
a pretty grim picture here. a world completely

00:39:50.880 --> 00:39:54.219
gridlocked by acronyms and lawsuits and shadow

00:39:54.219 --> 00:39:57.239
studies. But the sources suggest the tide is

00:39:57.239 --> 00:39:59.599
starting to turn. We are actually seeing some

00:39:59.599 --> 00:40:02.300
solutions emerge. We are. The sheer scale of

00:40:02.300 --> 00:40:04.380
the housing crisis in many places has become

00:40:04.380 --> 00:40:07.139
so acute that it's forcing governments to finally

00:40:07.139 --> 00:40:09.920
act. They are realizing that decades of local

00:40:09.920 --> 00:40:13.530
control has, in many ways, failed. So they are

00:40:13.530 --> 00:40:15.969
moving towards state control. Let's talk about

00:40:15.969 --> 00:40:17.849
some of the legislative weapons being deployed.

00:40:18.429 --> 00:40:20.429
California seems to be leading the way here with

00:40:20.429 --> 00:40:23.409
laws like SB 35. How does a law like that actually

00:40:23.409 --> 00:40:26.429
work? SB 35 is fascinating because it fundamentally

00:40:26.429 --> 00:40:29.070
changes the rules of the game. It creates a trigger.

00:40:29.230 --> 00:40:32.349
Here's how it works. Every city in California

00:40:32.349 --> 00:40:35.150
is assigned a housing quota by the state. A certain

00:40:35.150 --> 00:40:37.449
number of new homes at various income levels

00:40:37.449 --> 00:40:40.070
that they must plan for. This is called the RHNA

00:40:40.070 --> 00:40:42.130
number. And what happens if they don't meet that

00:40:42.130 --> 00:40:44.909
number? if they just ignore it. If they fall

00:40:44.909 --> 00:40:47.090
behind on building their fair share of housing,

00:40:47.289 --> 00:40:50.969
the trigger in SB 35 is pulled. And that trigger

00:40:50.969 --> 00:40:53.849
strips the city of its discretionary review powers

00:40:53.849 --> 00:40:56.710
for certain housing projects. What does discretionary

00:40:56.710 --> 00:40:59.650
review mean in plain English? It means they lose

00:40:59.650 --> 00:41:02.250
the ability to say no for subjective reasons.

00:41:02.590 --> 00:41:05.230
It means if a developer proposes a new apartment

00:41:05.230 --> 00:41:07.730
building that follows all the written objective

00:41:07.730 --> 00:41:10.150
zoning rules, it's not too tall, it's set back

00:41:10.150 --> 00:41:12.070
from the street, it has the right number of units,

00:41:12.269 --> 00:41:16.789
the city must approve. So no more five -year

00:41:16.789 --> 00:41:19.449
battles over historic laundromats. Exactly. No

00:41:19.449 --> 00:41:22.110
more 50 public hearings. No more demanding a

00:41:22.110 --> 00:41:24.969
shadow study. They can't debate the aesthetics

00:41:24.969 --> 00:41:27.630
or the color of the bricks. It turns what was

00:41:27.630 --> 00:41:30.309
a political process into a simple administrative

00:41:30.309 --> 00:41:33.670
checklist. That is a massive, massive power shift

00:41:33.670 --> 00:41:36.070
from local cities to the state. It's the state

00:41:36.070 --> 00:41:37.829
basically telling the cities, you had your chance

00:41:37.829 --> 00:41:40.190
to govern responsibly and you blew it. So now

00:41:40.190 --> 00:41:41.989
mom and dad are taking over. And then there's

00:41:41.989 --> 00:41:44.809
the Minneapolis 2040 plan. This was truly revolutionary

00:41:44.809 --> 00:41:47.590
at the time. Minneapolis became the first major

00:41:47.590 --> 00:41:50.449
U .S. city to effectively end single family zoning

00:41:50.449 --> 00:41:52.969
across the entire city. Now, to be clear, they

00:41:52.969 --> 00:41:55.769
didn't ban single family houses. No, not at all.

00:41:55.809 --> 00:41:57.789
You can still build them. All they did was say.

00:41:58.429 --> 00:42:01.150
On any residential lot where you are currently

00:42:01.150 --> 00:42:03.650
allowed to build a single house, you are now

00:42:03.650 --> 00:42:06.610
also allowed to build a duplex or a triplex by

00:42:06.610 --> 00:42:09.349
right. It's a subtle change, but a really powerful

00:42:09.349 --> 00:42:11.969
one. It is. It faced a lot of legal challenges,

00:42:11.989 --> 00:42:14.309
of course, from local homeowners. But the intent

00:42:14.309 --> 00:42:18.190
was to gently increase density everywhere, little

00:42:18.190 --> 00:42:20.630
by little, rather than concentrating all the

00:42:20.630 --> 00:42:23.750
new growth into huge towers in just one or two

00:42:23.750 --> 00:42:25.530
neighborhoods. And we also have international

00:42:25.530 --> 00:42:28.230
success stories to look at. Auckland, New Zealand,

00:42:28.289 --> 00:42:30.829
for example. Auckland is the global poster child

00:42:30.829 --> 00:42:34.489
for YMBY policy success right now. Back in 2016,

00:42:34.690 --> 00:42:37.070
they implemented a massive citywide upzoning

00:42:37.070 --> 00:42:39.630
plan. They allowed for townhouse -style medium

00:42:39.630 --> 00:42:42.590
density across huge swaths of the city that were

00:42:42.590 --> 00:42:44.710
previously reserved for single -family homes.

00:42:44.969 --> 00:42:47.710
And did the sky fall? Did the city descend into

00:42:47.710 --> 00:42:51.869
chaos? No. But a construction boom started. And

00:42:51.869 --> 00:42:56.039
most importantly, rents stabilized. While many

00:42:56.039 --> 00:42:58.300
other cities around the world saw rents explode

00:42:58.300 --> 00:43:01.300
after the COVID pandemic, Auckland's rents stayed

00:43:01.300 --> 00:43:03.760
relatively flat because for the first time in

00:43:03.760 --> 00:43:06.780
a long time, housing supply was actually keeping

00:43:06.780 --> 00:43:09.900
up with demand. It proved the basic econ 101

00:43:09.900 --> 00:43:12.760
theory actually works in the real world. It did.

00:43:12.960 --> 00:43:16.219
If you build it, prices will, at the very least,

00:43:16.280 --> 00:43:19.019
stabilize. There is one specific solution from

00:43:19.019 --> 00:43:21.320
the notes that I found really charming. It's

00:43:21.320 --> 00:43:23.800
this unexpected combination of religion. And

00:43:23.800 --> 00:43:26.800
real estate. Yeah. Y -I -G -B -Y. Yes, in God's

00:43:26.800 --> 00:43:28.900
backyard. This sounds like a joke, but it's a

00:43:28.900 --> 00:43:31.179
completely serious policy proposal. It is, and

00:43:31.179 --> 00:43:33.579
it's brilliant. Just think about how much land

00:43:33.579 --> 00:43:36.579
is owned by religious institutions. Churches,

00:43:36.579 --> 00:43:39.480
synagogues, mosques. They often have these enormous

00:43:39.480 --> 00:43:41.880
parking lots that are completely empty six days

00:43:41.880 --> 00:43:44.099
a week. And many of these institutions have a

00:43:44.099 --> 00:43:45.960
mission to help the poor. They want to build

00:43:45.960 --> 00:43:48.659
affordable housing. They want to, but the zoning

00:43:48.659 --> 00:43:50.750
stopped them. You can't just put an apartment

00:43:50.750 --> 00:43:53.130
building in a zone that's designated for a church.

00:43:53.389 --> 00:43:57.409
So California passed a law called SB4. It effectively

00:43:57.409 --> 00:44:01.030
rezones all that land. It allows religious institutions

00:44:01.030 --> 00:44:04.610
and nonprofit colleges to build 100 % affordable

00:44:04.610 --> 00:44:07.849
housing on their property, bypassing most of

00:44:07.849 --> 00:44:10.429
the local opposition and red tape. And the sources

00:44:10.429 --> 00:44:14.050
say this one law could unlock up to 170 ,000

00:44:14.050 --> 00:44:17.510
acres of land for development in California alone.

00:44:17.750 --> 00:44:20.500
That's huge. Perfect alignment of a moral mission

00:44:20.500 --> 00:44:23.139
with practical housing policy. Finally, there's

00:44:23.139 --> 00:44:25.059
a really clever idea that's being floated in

00:44:25.059 --> 00:44:27.519
London called Better Streets. This one feels

00:44:27.519 --> 00:44:30.260
very democratic and bottom up. It's a very clever

00:44:30.260 --> 00:44:33.260
psychological hack. Right now, the dynamic is

00:44:33.260 --> 00:44:35.500
if I want to add a story to my house, all my

00:44:35.500 --> 00:44:37.179
neighbors hate it because they get the construction

00:44:37.179 --> 00:44:39.639
noise and the disruption, but they get no personal

00:44:39.639 --> 00:44:41.880
benefit. All costs for them all benefit for me.

00:44:41.960 --> 00:44:44.619
Exactly. The Better Streets proposal flips that.

00:44:44.760 --> 00:44:47.000
It suggests that the residents of a single street

00:44:47.000 --> 00:44:49.239
can get together and vote. Just the people on

00:44:49.239 --> 00:44:50.739
that one street, not the whole neighborhood.

00:44:51.019 --> 00:44:54.460
Just the street. If, say, a two -thirds majority

00:44:54.460 --> 00:44:57.340
of the residents on Maple Street vote to allow

00:44:57.340 --> 00:44:59.900
higher density on their block, say, converting

00:44:59.900 --> 00:45:01.900
their single houses into multi -story mansion

00:45:01.900 --> 00:45:04.519
blocks, they can collectively grant themselves

00:45:04.519 --> 00:45:07.059
planning permission. But why would they ever

00:45:07.059 --> 00:45:08.820
do that? Why would they vote for more density

00:45:08.820 --> 00:45:12.280
on their own quiet street? Money. The incentive

00:45:12.280 --> 00:45:14.679
is that if the entire street upzones together,

00:45:14.940 --> 00:45:17.320
all of their property values skyrocket at the

00:45:17.320 --> 00:45:19.719
same time because their land is now much more

00:45:19.719 --> 00:45:21.780
valuable to developers who can build more on

00:45:21.780 --> 00:45:24.519
it. Ah, I see. It turns the prisoner's dilemma,

00:45:24.760 --> 00:45:27.860
where everyone is incentivized to block everyone

00:45:27.860 --> 00:45:31.599
else, into a cooperative game. Exactly. It becomes...

00:45:32.429 --> 00:45:34.730
If we all agree to do this together, we all get

00:45:34.730 --> 00:45:37.070
rich. And as a bonus, the city gets a lot more

00:45:37.070 --> 00:45:39.730
housing. I really like that. It aligns the individual

00:45:39.730 --> 00:45:41.869
financial incentives with the broader social

00:45:41.869 --> 00:45:44.889
good. It makes the diffuse benefit of more housing

00:45:44.889 --> 00:45:47.309
into a very concentrated benefit for the people

00:45:47.309 --> 00:45:49.530
making the decision. So we've covered the history,

00:45:49.690 --> 00:45:51.929
the psychology, the trillion -dollar economic

00:45:51.929 --> 00:45:54.969
cost, and some of the potential solutions. How

00:45:54.969 --> 00:45:57.110
do we synthesize all this? When you step back,

00:45:57.269 --> 00:45:59.809
what's the big takeaway from this deep dive?

00:46:00.239 --> 00:46:02.900
I think we have to recognize that this is at

00:46:02.900 --> 00:46:05.900
its heart a tragedy of the commons. We have designed

00:46:05.900 --> 00:46:08.860
a system where the most rational, logical behavior

00:46:08.860 --> 00:46:11.940
for an individual homeowner, which is protect

00:46:11.940 --> 00:46:14.980
my biggest asset, stop change, keep things as

00:46:14.980 --> 00:46:18.119
they are, is collectively destructive for the

00:46:18.119 --> 00:46:20.239
society as a whole. And it creates that political

00:46:20.239 --> 00:46:22.539
horseshoe we talked about earlier. Right. As

00:46:22.539 --> 00:46:24.880
the columnist Farhad Manjo pointed out in a piece,

00:46:25.039 --> 00:46:27.280
you end up with this bizarre situation where

00:46:27.280 --> 00:46:30.300
wealthy, progressive Democrats in San Francisco

00:46:30.300 --> 00:46:32.619
and conservative, small government Republicans

00:46:32.619 --> 00:46:36.019
in the suburbs are, in practice, functionally

00:46:36.019 --> 00:46:38.480
identical. They both use their political power

00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:40.599
to pull up the drawbridge and keep new people

00:46:40.599 --> 00:46:42.699
out. It forces all of us to kind of look in the

00:46:42.699 --> 00:46:45.460
mirror. It really does. It's very easy to be

00:46:45.460 --> 00:46:48.340
a YMBY in the abstract. Yes, of course we need

00:46:48.340 --> 00:46:50.880
more renewable energy. Yes, we absolutely need

00:46:50.880 --> 00:46:53.539
more homes for the homeless. But the real question

00:46:53.539 --> 00:46:57.320
is, are you a YMBY when the proposal is next

00:46:57.320 --> 00:46:59.780
door to you? And that is the challenge I want

00:46:59.780 --> 00:47:02.199
to leave our listener with today. The next time

00:47:02.199 --> 00:47:04.500
you're walking down your street and you see one

00:47:04.500 --> 00:47:07.039
of those laminated signs zip -tied to a lamppost,

00:47:07.199 --> 00:47:09.920
Notice of Proposed Development, what is your

00:47:09.920 --> 00:47:13.239
gut reaction? Do you see a threat? Do you see

00:47:13.239 --> 00:47:15.420
a nuisance is the first word that pops into your

00:47:15.420 --> 00:47:18.719
head. Traffic. Or do you see a neighbor? Do you

00:47:18.719 --> 00:47:20.820
see a young family that needs a place to start?

00:47:20.900 --> 00:47:22.780
Do you see the wind farm that's going to keep

00:47:22.780 --> 00:47:25.000
the lights on for everyone? Because if we don't

00:47:25.000 --> 00:47:27.800
build here, we are making an active choice to

00:47:27.800 --> 00:47:30.519
push that development there. And there usually

00:47:30.519 --> 00:47:32.800
means either sprawling out into nature, creating

00:47:32.800 --> 00:47:35.960
longer commutes for everyone, or burdening a

00:47:35.960 --> 00:47:37.980
disadvantaged community that doesn't have the

00:47:37.980 --> 00:47:40.659
power to fight back. The backyard, it turns out,

00:47:40.659 --> 00:47:42.480
is a lot bigger than we think. It is indeed.

00:47:42.739 --> 00:47:44.380
Thanks for diving deep with us. We'll see you

00:47:44.380 --> 00:47:44.699
next time.