WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we are cracking

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open a file that is, well, it's deceptively heavy.

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Yeah. It looks like one thing on the surface,

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maybe a bit of dry philosophy, but once you actually

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start reading, you realize we are dealing with

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the operating system of the modern world. That

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is not an exaggeration at all. We are looking

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at a figure who essentially reset the board for

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how we think. Really? In the 20th and now the

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21st centuries? We're talking about Sir Karl

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Popper. Yeah. And I have to be honest with you,

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and with everyone listening, before we really

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dug into the research for this, I had him filed

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away in my brain as the meme guy. The meme guy.

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You know the one, the little comic strip that

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goes around about the paradox of tolerance? It

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pops up on my feet every single time there's

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a controversy about free speech or, you know,

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canceling someone. And the gist everyone takes

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from it is we shouldn't tolerate intolerant people.

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Simple as that. Right. Which is a very catchy

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slogan. But as we are going to find out, it is

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a massive, massive oversimplification of what

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Popper actually believed. It's like summarizing,

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I don't know, Romeo and Juliet as a story about

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bad dating choices. Right. Exactly. And that's

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our mission today. We want to go way beyond the

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meme. We're going to see how this guy, a cabinetmaker

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turned philosopher. completely dismantled the

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idea that science is about finding truth, and

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then used that exact same logic to tear apart

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totalitarianism. It is a massive scope. I mean,

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we're going to go from the behavior of subatomic

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particles all the way up to the behavior of dictators.

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Wow. But there is a single beautiful thread connecting

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it all, the problem of certainty. So let's set

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the vibe for the listener. Because when I think

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of philosopher, I think of, you know, ancient

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Greece, togas, or maybe a dusty French salon.

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But Popper is different. Very, very different.

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You have to imagine Vienna in the 1920s. It's

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that period between the wars. The old Austro

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-Hungarian Empire has just collapsed. Chaos.

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Total chaos. The city is poor. It's starving

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in places. But it is also intellectually electric.

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You have these coffee houses just filled with

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radicals, artists, scientists. Freud is there.

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Wittgenstein is there. Everybody is arguing about

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the future. But it's not just like polite debate,

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is it? The world is literally burning down around

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them. Exactly. It's a pressure cooker. People

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are desperate for answers. They want to know

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what is going to happen next. Is the future going

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to be communism? Is it going to be fascism? They

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want a system. A prophecy. A prophecy. Exactly.

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And in the middle of this, you have this young

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Karl Popper who looks at all these people claiming

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they have the answer. And he basically says,

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You're all asking the wrong question. I love

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that. The professional buzzkill of Vienna. So

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we have this dossier on him, his biography, his

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science, his politics. Where do we even start

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with a guy like this? We have to start with the

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concept that underpins absolutely everything

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he did. The core paradox. OK, lay it on us. It's

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the paradox of knowledge itself. I mean, most

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of us, especially if we love science, we grow

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up with this idea that science is the ultimate

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truth machine. You observe something, you test

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it, you prove it, and now it is a fact. Capital

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F. Right. Trust the science. Right. That phrase

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implies that science is a solid block of granite,

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that it's settled. And Popper takes a sledgehammer

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to that granite. He says that science can never,

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ever prove anything is true. Okay, hold on. You're

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going to have to walk me through this because

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that sounds like something a flat earther would

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say on a YouTube comment thread. You know, you

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can't prove the earth is round. I know. It sounds

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counterintuitive, but stick with me. Okay, so

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if I drop this pen, it hits the desk. I do it

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again, it hits the desk. If I do that a million

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times... Haven't I proven the theory of gravity?

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You've proven that the pen fell a million times.

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You have not, in a strictly logical sense, proven

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it will fall the million and first time. But

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come on, that's just being pedantic, isn't it?

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Of course it's going to fall. The sun is going

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to rise tomorrow. Is it? This is the problem

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of induction. It goes way back to the philosopher

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David Hume, but Popper really weaponized it.

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The assumption you're making, the one we all

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make, is that the future will resemble the past.

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Yeah. But there is no logical rule that guarantees

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that. It's an assumption, a very useful one,

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but it's still just a leap of faith. Give me

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a real world example where that assumption fails.

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Something less, you know, the sun explodes. The

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classic one is the turkey. The turkey. Bertrand

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Russell's turkey. Imagine you're a turkey on

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a farm. Every single day at 9 a .m., a friendly

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human comes and gives you food. Okay. I'm a happy

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turkey. You're a very happy turkey. And you're

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a scientific turkey, so you collect data. Day

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after day, week after week, month after month,

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the data is confirmed. When the man comes at

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9 a .m., I get food. Your theory is verified

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hundreds of times. You have supreme confidence.

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I feel like I know where this is going. And then

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it's the day before Thanksgiving. The man comes

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at 9 a .m., and instead of feeding you, he wrings

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your neck. Your theory, which had been verified

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hundreds of times, was catastrophically wrong.

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Okay, that's a good one. So the dossier also

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mentions swans. This feels a bit more down to

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earth. This is the famous white swan problem.

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It's the same logic. Imagine you are a European

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naturalist in the 1600s. You have spent your

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entire life studying birds. You have traveled

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from England to France to Germany, all over Europe.

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Every single swan you have ever seen, and you've

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seen thousands of them, is white. So I write

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in my notebook, all swans are white. And I feel

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pretty good about it. That's a scientific fact.

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It feels like a fact. You have thousands of data

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points confirming it. You have verified your

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theory over and over and over again. You tell

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all your naturalist friends. It's in the textbooks.

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All swans are white. But then you hop on a boat,

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a very long and dangerous voyage, and you sail

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to Australia. And I see a black swan. One. Single.

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Black. Swan. And in that one second, your entire

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lifetime of proof, all those thousands of observations,

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all the textbooks. It's all just considerated.

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Incinerated. It's brutal, but it reveals the

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fundamental asymmetry that Popper was obsessed

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with. No amount of confirming instances, no number

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of white swans can ever prove the theory is true

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forever. But one black swan can prove it is false.

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Instantly. Exactly. You can never know for certain

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if you're right, but you can definitely absolutely

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know if you're wrong. And that? For him, it is

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the secret weapon of science. That's everything.

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We aren't in the business of verifying truth.

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We are in the business of hunting for black swans.

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We are in the business of falsification. Okay,

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this brings us to what the notes call the demarcation

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problem. So this is how we tell the difference

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between real science and, you know, nonsense,

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right? Correct. In Popper's time, this was a

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huge, huge issue. He was looking at the intellectual

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landscape of Vienna in the 1920s. On one side,

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you had Albert Einstein, this towering figure

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of physics. On the other side, you had psychoanalysts,

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Sigmund Freud and Alfred Adler. And Popper noticed

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something weird. They were all considered scientists

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back then, weren't they? They were all doing

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science, supposedly. They were. They were all

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part of this new, exciting wave of knowledge.

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But Popper felt there was a fundamental difference

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in how they operated. Let's look at Einstein

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first. The notes mention the 1919 solar eclipse

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expedition. This is a crucial story. Yeah, flesh

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this out for me, because usually people just

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say Einstein was right, but it was actually a

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huge gamble, wasn't it? It was a massive gamble,

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a career -ending gamble. Einstein had this theory

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of general relativity. It was beautiful math,

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but it was just paper. And it made a very specific,

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very weird prediction that gravity from a massive

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object like the sun actually warps the fabric

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of space -time. Which means light should bend

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as it passes by. Exactly. Light passing near

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the sun should bend, which sounds insane. straight

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line. Newton said light goes straight. For 200

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years, that was the rule. So Einstein is basically

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challenging Newton. He's saying Newton was wrong.

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So the British astronomer Arthur Eddington organizes

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this expedition to the island of Principe off

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the coast of Africa to photograph the stars during

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a total solar eclipse. And why an eclipse? Why

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did it have to be an eclipse? Because that's

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the only time you can see the stars that are

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right next to the sun in the sky. Normally, the

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sun's glare would block them out. So the plan

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was, take a picture of the stars in their normal

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position months earlier. Then, during the eclipse,

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take a picture of the same stars. If Einstein

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was right, the stars in the eclipse photo would

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appear to be in slightly the wrong position.

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Because their light had curved around the sun

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on its way to the camera? Precisely. And if they

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were in the normal position... Then Einstein

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is wrong. His theory is dead. Utterly dead. He

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literally wrote to Eddington saying... If the

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redshift is not there, then the theory is untenable.

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He gave the world a roadmap to destroy his life's

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work. He put his neck on the guillotine. That

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is what Popper called a risky prediction. He

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dared the universe to prove him wrong. Yes. Now,

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compare that to what Popper saw with the psychoanalysts.

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He actually worked for a time in Alfred Adler's

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clinics for children in Vienna. He saw this firsthand.

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And this is where that example of the drowning

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child comes from. This really clicked for me.

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It's a perfect illustration of what Popper called

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pseudoscience. It's something that looks like

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science but isn't. So Popper posits two scenarios.

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Scenario A. A man pushes a child into a lake

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to drown him. Horrible. Scenario B. A man dives

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into a lake to save a drowning child. Heroic.

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Total opposites. Evil and good. But look at how

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Adler's theory of inferiority complexes handles

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them. Why did the man push the child? Adler would

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say something like he is suffering from a deep

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-seated inferiority complex. By committing this

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heinous crime, he is attempting to prove to himself

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that he has the power to dare to defy society.

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Makes a certain kind of sense, I guess. And the

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man who saved the child? Adler would say. He's

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also suffering from an inferiority complex. By

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risking his own life to save another, he is proving

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to himself that he has the courage to overcome

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his feelings of inadequacy. So, wait. The theory

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explains the murder and the rescue with the exact

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same core logic. Exactly. No matter what the

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man does, kill the child, save the child, ignore

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the child, dance a jig by the lakeside, the theory

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can explain it. It's infinitely flexible. It's

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like a net with holes so big it can't catch any

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fish. And usually we think that's a good thing.

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We think, wow, your theory explains everything.

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It must be brilliant. And Popper screams, no.

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If a theory explains everything that could possibly

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happen, then it explains nothing. It's a horoscope.

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You will face a challenge today. Well, yeah,

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if you get fired, it fits. If you lose your keys,

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it fits. It forbids nothing. That is such a huge

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shift in perspective. So a real scientific theory

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is defined by what it forbids. It draws a clear

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line in the sand and says, if you find a fossil

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of a rabbit in the Precambrian era, my entire

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theory of evolution is wrong. Precisely. Strength

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is not being irrefutable. Strength is being vulnerable

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to refutation and surviving the attempt. But

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this leads to a bit of an existential crisis,

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doesn't it? If we can't verify anything, we're

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just waiting around to be falsified. Does that

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mean we don't actually know anything? Is all

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our technology, our medicine, just a lucky guess

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it hasn't failed yet? That's the scary interpretation,

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and some people do go there. But Popper didn't

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view it that way at all. He didn't think it was

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nihilistic. He saw it as a dynamic evolutionary

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process. He actually had a formula for it. I

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saw that in the notes. PS1 to TT1 to EE1 to PS2.

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It looks like, I don't know, a chemical equation

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or something. It's simpler than it looks. PS1

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is problem situation one. We start with a problem.

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Why do the planets move like that? That's our

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starting point. Okay, that makes sense. Then

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we move to TT1, tentative theory. We make a bold

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guess. Maybe they move in perfect circles because

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God loves circles. Reasonable guess for the time.

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Then EE1. Error elimination. This is the Thunderdome.

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This is where we attack the theory from every

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angle. We make observations. We look for the

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black swans. And we realize, wait, the data from

00:12:00.659 --> 00:12:03.559
Mars is moving weirdly. It's not a perfect circle.

00:12:03.679 --> 00:12:07.100
So the circle theory dies. It's been falsified.

00:12:07.340 --> 00:12:09.799
So are we back to the start? Do we know nothing

00:12:09.799 --> 00:12:12.379
again? No, this is the crucial part. We are at

00:12:12.379 --> 00:12:16.000
PS2, problem situation two. We have a nearer,

00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:19.039
better, more refined problem. If it's not a circle,

00:12:19.179 --> 00:12:21.759
what the heck is it? And then we make a new tentative

00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:25.269
theory, TT2. Maybe it's an ellipse. And we start

00:12:25.269 --> 00:12:27.970
the process of error elimination all over again.

00:12:28.169 --> 00:12:30.250
So we're failing forward. We are failing our

00:12:30.250 --> 00:12:34.330
way to success. We are trading big, crude errors

00:12:34.330 --> 00:12:38.090
for smaller, more subtle errors. Popper called

00:12:38.090 --> 00:12:41.740
this verisimilitude. Which means truth -likeness.

00:12:41.960 --> 00:12:44.600
Exactly. We are getting closer to the truth,

00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:47.179
increasing our truth -likeness, even if we can

00:12:47.179 --> 00:12:49.320
never be 100 % certain we have arrived at the

00:12:49.320 --> 00:12:52.080
final capital T truth. It's like Zeno's paradox.

00:12:52.480 --> 00:12:54.500
You get halfway to the wall, then halfway again

00:12:54.500 --> 00:12:56.399
and halfway again, but you never quite touch

00:12:56.399 --> 00:12:58.950
it. You get close enough to build a GPS system

00:12:58.950 --> 00:13:01.490
that can guide a missile to a target or a car

00:13:01.490 --> 00:13:03.529
to your house. And for practical purposes, that's

00:13:03.529 --> 00:13:05.309
what matters. Okay, before we leave the science

00:13:05.309 --> 00:13:06.990
section, I have to challenge you on one thing.

00:13:07.029 --> 00:13:08.669
I'm playing the role of the skeptical listener

00:13:08.669 --> 00:13:10.629
here. Please do. You said we can't prove anything.

00:13:11.090 --> 00:13:14.970
But 2 plus 2 equals 4. Ah, yes. The mathematics

00:13:14.970 --> 00:13:17.389
dilemma. I mean, come on. That's not a theory.

00:13:17.470 --> 00:13:20.210
That's a fact. You can't falsify that. I can't

00:13:20.210 --> 00:13:22.529
go to Australia and find a 2 plus 2 equals 5.

00:13:22.750 --> 00:13:25.169
It's just true. You are absolutely right, but

00:13:25.169 --> 00:13:27.830
in a very specific sense. Popper had to deal

00:13:27.830 --> 00:13:29.710
with this, obviously. And he made a really clever

00:13:29.710 --> 00:13:32.710
distinction between pure math and applied math.

00:13:32.929 --> 00:13:35.909
What's the difference? Pure math. The statement

00:13:35.909 --> 00:13:39.690
2 plus 2 equals 4 is a logical definition. It's

00:13:39.690 --> 00:13:43.370
a closed loop of logic. It's true because we

00:13:43.370 --> 00:13:46.269
defined the symbol 2 and the symbol 4 and the

00:13:46.269 --> 00:13:48.669
operator plus in such a way that it has to be

00:13:48.669 --> 00:13:51.159
true. So it's a tautology. It's true by definition.

00:13:51.419 --> 00:13:53.220
Exactly. It doesn't tell us anything about the

00:13:53.220 --> 00:13:54.980
physical universe. It tells us about the rules

00:13:54.980 --> 00:13:57.379
of our own logical language. It's certain, but

00:13:57.379 --> 00:14:00.620
it's abstract. Okay, I think I follow. But what

00:14:00.620 --> 00:14:02.620
happens when you apply it? The moment you apply

00:14:02.620 --> 00:14:05.100
it to the physical world, to world one, as he'd

00:14:05.100 --> 00:14:07.299
call it, it becomes a hypothesis. It becomes

00:14:07.299 --> 00:14:09.460
falsifiable. Give me an example of that. Popper

00:14:09.460 --> 00:14:12.139
used the example of rabbits. If I say two apples

00:14:12.139 --> 00:14:14.659
plus two apples equals four apples, that's an

00:14:14.659 --> 00:14:17.120
applied theory. And it works. If I put two apples

00:14:17.120 --> 00:14:19.700
in a basket and add two more, I have four. The

00:14:19.700 --> 00:14:22.860
theory holds up. Sure. But if I take two rabbits

00:14:22.860 --> 00:14:25.139
and I add two rabbits and I put them in a box

00:14:25.139 --> 00:14:27.899
and wait a year. I see where you're going with

00:14:27.899 --> 00:14:29.700
this. You're going to have a lot more than four

00:14:29.700 --> 00:14:32.580
rabbits. A lot more. So the applied physical

00:14:32.580 --> 00:14:34.840
theory, two rabbits plus two rabbits equals four

00:14:34.840 --> 00:14:38.120
rabbits, has been falsified by the biological

00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:40.840
process of reproduction. Or think about water

00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:44.779
droplets. One drop plus one drop equals... One

00:14:44.779 --> 00:14:47.779
bigger drop. So one plus one equals one in that

00:14:47.779 --> 00:14:50.919
context. In that physical context, yes. So Popper's

00:14:50.919 --> 00:14:53.500
point is elegant. Logical truth is certain but

00:14:53.500 --> 00:14:56.179
abstract. Physical truth is concrete but uncertain.

00:14:56.500 --> 00:14:58.399
You can never have both at the same time. That

00:14:58.399 --> 00:15:00.740
is actually kind of mind bending. The absolute

00:15:00.740 --> 00:15:03.720
certainty of math. only works if the physical

00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:05.840
world behaves itself according to the rules we

00:15:05.840 --> 00:15:07.899
set. And the physical world loves to misbehave.

00:15:08.039 --> 00:15:09.340
Okay, so that's the engine of his intellect.

00:15:09.539 --> 00:15:11.940
Falsification, error is good, testing is everything.

00:15:12.220 --> 00:15:15.259
But I want to pivot now to the man himself. Because

00:15:15.259 --> 00:15:17.179
you mentioned earlier that he wasn't just sitting

00:15:17.179 --> 00:15:19.440
in a library dreaming this stuff up. He had a

00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:21.840
life that really, really informed this worldview.

00:15:22.179 --> 00:15:24.740
He really did. This wasn't just an abstract game

00:15:24.740 --> 00:15:28.419
for him. He was born in 1902 in Vienna. And we

00:15:28.419 --> 00:15:29.799
have to talk about his background because it

00:15:29.799 --> 00:15:32.279
sets up the tragedy that follows. He was from

00:15:32.279 --> 00:15:34.480
a family of Jewish descent that had converted

00:15:34.480 --> 00:15:36.899
to Lutheranism before he was born. So they were

00:15:36.899 --> 00:15:39.460
very assimilated. Very assimilated. Very high

00:15:39.460 --> 00:15:42.480
culture. His dad was a successful lawyer with

00:15:42.480 --> 00:15:45.200
a personal library of something like 12 ,000

00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:47.559
to 14 ,000 books. That's not a library. That's

00:15:47.559 --> 00:15:49.539
a bunker made of paper. That's unbelievable.

00:15:49.879 --> 00:15:53.440
He grew up just swimming in ideas. But Popper

00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:56.340
was a bit of a contrarian from day one. He found

00:15:56.340 --> 00:15:58.399
formal schooling boring, so he quit school at

00:15:58.399 --> 00:16:01.350
16. And here's the detail I love. that grounds

00:16:01.350 --> 00:16:04.389
him. He decided he wanted to be a manual laborer.

00:16:04.409 --> 00:16:06.070
The rich kid who wants to get his hands dirty.

00:16:06.129 --> 00:16:09.190
A classic story. Exactly. He tried street construction

00:16:09.190 --> 00:16:11.850
first, but he was physically quite small and

00:16:11.850 --> 00:16:13.950
frail, and he literally couldn't handle the heavy

00:16:13.950 --> 00:16:17.330
labor. It was breaking him. So he switched apprenticeships

00:16:17.330 --> 00:16:19.610
and became a cabinetmaker. He became a carpenter.

00:16:19.980 --> 00:16:22.080
A journeyman cabinet maker. And I think this

00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.480
matters so much. When you make a cabinet, you

00:16:24.480 --> 00:16:27.440
can't theorize it into existence. If you measure

00:16:27.440 --> 00:16:29.580
the wood wrong, the door doesn't close. Reality

00:16:29.580 --> 00:16:31.259
hits you in the face immediately. There's no

00:16:31.259 --> 00:16:33.940
wiggle room. It's falsification in wood. Your

00:16:33.940 --> 00:16:37.879
theory, this piece is 30 centimeters, is tested

00:16:37.879 --> 00:16:40.659
by the saw. Exactly. But while he's sanding wood

00:16:40.659 --> 00:16:43.159
by day, he's getting radicalized by night. It's

00:16:43.159 --> 00:16:45.899
1919. The First World War is over. Vienna is

00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:49.019
in turmoil. Everyone is starving. And the communists

00:16:49.019 --> 00:16:51.620
are promising a worker's paradise, a utopia.

00:16:52.019 --> 00:16:55.559
A teenage Karl Popper says, sign me up. So he

00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:58.639
becomes a Marxist. For a few months. He really

00:16:58.639 --> 00:17:00.940
believed they had the answer. They had the scientific

00:17:00.940 --> 00:17:03.559
theory of history, you see. They claimed to know

00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:05.799
the future. But then the incident at Hörlgass

00:17:05.799 --> 00:17:07.759
happens. This is the turning point, isn't it?

00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.779
Paint the picture for us. It's June 15th, 1919.

00:17:11.099 --> 00:17:13.559
There's a protest. The communists are trying

00:17:13.559 --> 00:17:15.339
to free some comrades from a police station in

00:17:15.339 --> 00:17:17.720
Hurghast. Popper is there, caught up in the fervor.

00:17:17.740 --> 00:17:19.599
The crowd is surging. It's chaotic. And then

00:17:19.599 --> 00:17:23.359
the police open fire on the protesters. And people

00:17:23.359 --> 00:17:26.940
died. Eight young men. Unarmed party comrades.

00:17:27.259 --> 00:17:29.660
Some of them were Popper's friends. He saw them

00:17:29.660 --> 00:17:32.079
fall. He saw the blood on the pavement. And he

00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:34.599
was devastated. He felt personally responsible.

00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:36.980
He had been encouraging people to join this movement.

00:17:37.220 --> 00:17:39.640
That's a trauma. That stays with you for life.

00:17:39.920 --> 00:17:42.640
But the trauma of the deaths wasn't what changed

00:17:42.640 --> 00:17:45.970
his philosophy. It was what happened after. He

00:17:45.970 --> 00:17:47.730
went back to the party headquarters, expecting

00:17:47.730 --> 00:17:50.430
everyone to be in mourning, horrified, expecting

00:17:50.430 --> 00:17:53.529
them to say, we made a terrible mistake. We shouldn't

00:17:53.529 --> 00:17:55.769
have provoked this. And instead. Instead, the

00:17:55.769 --> 00:17:57.930
party leaders were cool. They were calculated.

00:17:58.309 --> 00:18:01.289
They told him that this was necessary. They said

00:18:01.289 --> 00:18:03.230
the deaths were actually a good thing because

00:18:03.230 --> 00:18:06.349
they would intensify the class struggle and hasten

00:18:06.349 --> 00:18:09.289
the inevitable revolution. They were accelerationists.

00:18:09.349 --> 00:18:11.930
Exactly. They believed that things had to get

00:18:11.930 --> 00:18:14.369
worse to get better. They were willing to sacrifice.

00:18:14.700 --> 00:18:17.359
human lives for what they called historical destiny.

00:18:17.539 --> 00:18:20.200
They treated his dead friends like pawns in a

00:18:20.200 --> 00:18:23.559
chess game. Worse. They treated them like variables

00:18:23.559 --> 00:18:26.160
in an equation that they were certain was correct.

00:18:26.480 --> 00:18:29.619
And that is when Popper snapped. He looked at

00:18:29.619 --> 00:18:32.839
these men and had this horrifying epiphany. You

00:18:32.839 --> 00:18:35.779
don't know the future. You are guessing. But

00:18:35.779 --> 00:18:38.380
you are willing to sacrifice living, breathing

00:18:38.380 --> 00:18:40.539
human beings for a guess that you've dressed

00:18:40.539 --> 00:18:43.339
up as a scientific certainty. That is the moment.

00:18:43.710 --> 00:18:45.930
That's the direct link between his philosophy

00:18:45.930 --> 00:18:49.009
of science and his politics. It is the rat trap.

00:18:49.269 --> 00:18:51.710
He saw this kind of ideology as a trap where

00:18:51.710 --> 00:18:54.410
you justify atrocities today for a paradise tomorrow

00:18:54.410 --> 00:18:56.450
that might never come. It poisons everything.

00:18:56.769 --> 00:18:58.849
And that sent him on the path to writing The

00:18:58.849 --> 00:19:01.700
Open Society and Its Enemies. It did. He realized

00:19:01.700 --> 00:19:03.920
that the intellectual arrogance of knowing the

00:19:03.920 --> 00:19:05.920
truth is the root of all tyranny. If you are

00:19:05.920 --> 00:19:08.839
100 % sure you are right and 100 % sure the revolution

00:19:08.839 --> 00:19:11.460
is inevitable, then killing a few people who

00:19:11.460 --> 00:19:13.859
stand in your way isn't murder. It's just sweeping

00:19:13.859 --> 00:19:16.339
up the dust of history. So he dedicates his life

00:19:16.339 --> 00:19:18.480
to fighting that certainty. But he has to run

00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:20.660
first, doesn't he? The Nazis are coming. He's

00:19:20.660 --> 00:19:23.640
of Jewish descent, living in Vienna in the 1930s.

00:19:23.700 --> 00:19:26.369
He knows exactly what's coming. He writes his

00:19:26.369 --> 00:19:29.130
first major book, The Logic of Scientific Discovery,

00:19:29.410 --> 00:19:32.029
partly as an academic credential, a resume, to

00:19:32.029 --> 00:19:34.549
get a job abroad so he can escape. It was literally

00:19:34.549 --> 00:19:36.849
his ticket out of Austria. And it worked. He

00:19:36.849 --> 00:19:39.230
got a post at Canterbury University College in

00:19:39.230 --> 00:19:42.650
New Zealand. So picture this. It's the late 1930s,

00:19:42.650 --> 00:19:46.980
early 1940s. Hitler is annexing Austria, invading

00:19:46.980 --> 00:19:49.799
Poland. The Holocaust is beginning. The world

00:19:49.799 --> 00:19:52.720
is on fire. And Karl Popper is literally on the

00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:55.119
other side of the planet in quiet, peaceful,

00:19:55.460 --> 00:19:57.680
sheep -filled New Zealand. He must have felt

00:19:57.680 --> 00:20:00.440
so helpless, so isolated. He felt incredible

00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:02.960
guilt. He was safe while his friends and family

00:20:02.960 --> 00:20:05.200
back in Europe were in mortal danger. Many of

00:20:05.200 --> 00:20:07.500
them were murdered. So he decided to make his

00:20:07.500 --> 00:20:10.039
next book, The Open Society and Its Enemies,

00:20:10.039 --> 00:20:12.779
his war effort. He couldn't shoot a gun, so he

00:20:12.779 --> 00:20:14.359
was going to shoot bullets at the ideas that

00:20:14.359 --> 00:20:16.779
created Hitler and Stalin. Let's get into that

00:20:16.779 --> 00:20:19.380
book, because open society is a term we hear

00:20:19.380 --> 00:20:21.339
a lot, usually thanks to George Soros, who was

00:20:21.339 --> 00:20:23.119
his student, and we'll get to him later. But

00:20:23.119 --> 00:20:25.619
what does Popper actually mean by an open society?

00:20:25.980 --> 00:20:28.900
An open society is, at its core, a society that

00:20:28.900 --> 00:20:31.579
recognizes it could be wrong. It's a society

00:20:31.579 --> 00:20:33.720
that is structured around the principles of the

00:20:33.720 --> 00:20:35.960
scientific method. How does that translate to

00:20:35.960 --> 00:20:38.579
government and laws? Well, think about its opposite,

00:20:38.700 --> 00:20:41.549
a closed society. like a traditional tribe or

00:20:41.549 --> 00:20:44.730
a monarchy or a modern dictatorship. In a closed

00:20:44.730 --> 00:20:47.369
society, the truth is fixed and handed down from

00:20:47.369 --> 00:20:50.829
on high. The leader knows the truth. The ancestors

00:20:50.829 --> 00:20:54.369
know the truth. The sacred texts know the truth.

00:20:54.569 --> 00:20:57.109
You don't challenge it. It's rigid. It's tribal.

00:20:57.369 --> 00:21:00.289
But if the leader is wrong or the sacred texts

00:21:00.289 --> 00:21:02.369
are wrong about something, then the society drives

00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:05.369
straight off a cliff. There is no mechanism for

00:21:05.369 --> 00:21:07.990
error correction. To question the leader is treason.

00:21:08.410 --> 00:21:10.589
So an open society is all about building in mechanisms

00:21:10.589 --> 00:21:13.029
for error correction. Exactly. And this leads

00:21:13.029 --> 00:21:15.490
to his redefinition of democracy. This is really

00:21:15.490 --> 00:21:17.369
important. If you ask most people what is democracy,

00:21:17.670 --> 00:21:19.950
they'll say rule by the people or the majority

00:21:19.950 --> 00:21:22.529
is right. Or choosing the best leader, you know,

00:21:22.529 --> 00:21:24.910
finding the wisest person to put in charge. Right.

00:21:25.009 --> 00:21:27.569
And the ancient question from Plato onwards was

00:21:27.569 --> 00:21:30.269
always who should rule. That's the classic question

00:21:30.269 --> 00:21:32.789
of political philosophy. Popper says it's the

00:21:32.789 --> 00:21:35.029
wrong question entirely. Why is it the wrong

00:21:35.029 --> 00:21:37.380
question? Because if you ask who should rule,

00:21:37.660 --> 00:21:40.880
the answer is always some variation of the best

00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:44.839
person, the wisest, the strongest, the purest.

00:21:45.099 --> 00:21:48.380
But who defines the best? Hitler thought he was

00:21:48.380 --> 00:21:51.000
the best. Stalin thought he was the best. It's

00:21:51.000 --> 00:21:53.700
an invitation to tyranny. So what's the right

00:21:53.700 --> 00:21:56.380
question to ask? The right question, Popper says,

00:21:56.460 --> 00:21:58.859
is how can we organize our political institutions

00:21:58.859 --> 00:22:01.740
so that bad or incompetent rulers can be prevented

00:22:01.740 --> 00:22:04.480
from doing too much damage and can be removed

00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:06.779
without violence? That is incredibly pragmatic.

00:22:07.420 --> 00:22:09.440
It's not about finding a messiah. It's about

00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:12.299
damage control. It's negative politics. Just

00:22:12.299 --> 00:22:14.460
like science is about eliminating bad theories,

00:22:14.740 --> 00:22:17.140
democracy is about peacefully eliminating bad

00:22:17.140 --> 00:22:19.519
leaders. The ballot box isn't a magical tool

00:22:19.519 --> 00:22:21.759
for finding the truth. It's a nonviolent mechanism

00:22:21.759 --> 00:22:24.079
for firing the manager without having to start

00:22:24.079 --> 00:22:26.799
a civil war. That makes democracy sound less

00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:31.339
like a holy crusade and more like taking out

00:22:31.339 --> 00:22:33.950
the trash on a regular basis. Which is... Honestly,

00:22:33.970 --> 00:22:36.250
refreshing. It lowers the stakes. And in politics,

00:22:36.430 --> 00:22:38.470
lowering the stakes is a very, very good thing.

00:22:38.690 --> 00:22:40.849
But this brings us to the main villain of his

00:22:40.849 --> 00:22:45.730
book, this idea of historicism. Now, we need

00:22:45.730 --> 00:22:47.890
to clarify this because it sounds like he hates

00:22:47.890 --> 00:22:50.150
history. He loves history. He's a great historian.

00:22:50.210 --> 00:22:53.089
He hates historicism, capital H. This is the

00:22:53.089 --> 00:22:55.630
belief that history has a script. That there

00:22:55.630 --> 00:22:58.490
are inexorable laws of history, just like there

00:22:58.490 --> 00:23:01.470
are laws of physics. The Marxist idea, for example,

00:23:01.609 --> 00:23:04.369
that feudalism inevitably leads to capitalism,

00:23:04.529 --> 00:23:06.670
which inevitably leads to communism. Exactly.

00:23:06.670 --> 00:23:08.890
Or the fascist idea that the Third Reich will

00:23:08.890 --> 00:23:11.069
last a thousand years because it is the destiny

00:23:11.069 --> 00:23:14.059
of the Aryan race. Popper attacked this with

00:23:14.059 --> 00:23:16.279
a logic bomb that I think is just brilliant in

00:23:16.279 --> 00:23:18.680
its simplicity. Okay, walk us through the logic

00:23:18.680 --> 00:23:21.400
step by step. Step one, the course of human history

00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:23.420
is strongly influenced by the growth of human

00:23:23.420 --> 00:23:26.000
knowledge. Okay, that seems obvious. We invent

00:23:26.000 --> 00:23:28.680
the printing press or the atomic bomb, and history

00:23:28.680 --> 00:23:33.480
changes course. Agreed. Step two, we cannot predict,

00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:37.200
by rational or scientific methods, the future

00:23:37.200 --> 00:23:39.700
growth of our own scientific knowledge. Hold

00:23:39.700 --> 00:23:42.670
on, explain that. If you could predict that you

00:23:42.670 --> 00:23:45.390
will invent, say, a cure for cancer in the year

00:23:45.390 --> 00:23:48.549
2030, you would have to know what that cure is

00:23:48.549 --> 00:23:51.329
right now in order to predict it. And if you

00:23:51.329 --> 00:23:53.509
knew what it was now, you'd invent it now, not

00:23:53.509 --> 00:23:55.769
in 2030. Right. You can't predict an invention

00:23:55.769 --> 00:23:58.509
before you invent it. The act of predicting it

00:23:58.509 --> 00:24:01.549
is the act of inventing it. Exactly. So the conclusion.

00:24:02.240 --> 00:24:04.759
Therefore, we cannot predict the future course

00:24:04.759 --> 00:24:08.180
of human history. The future is open. It's not

00:24:08.180 --> 00:24:10.400
written. It's not a movie we're just watching.

00:24:10.500 --> 00:24:13.279
So anyone standing on a podium telling you history

00:24:13.279 --> 00:24:15.859
is on our side or the decline of the West is

00:24:15.859 --> 00:24:18.740
inevitable is a fraud. They are selling you a

00:24:18.740 --> 00:24:21.240
snake oil prophecy to get you to give up your

00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:23.279
freedom and your critical mind. It's incredibly

00:24:23.279 --> 00:24:26.009
empowering, but also a little terrifying. Because

00:24:26.009 --> 00:24:28.630
if there's no destiny, there's no script, then

00:24:28.630 --> 00:24:30.509
we're driving the bus completely without a map.

00:24:30.650 --> 00:24:33.210
We are making the map as we go. That is the burden

00:24:33.210 --> 00:24:35.809
and the glory of an open society. Okay, we have

00:24:35.809 --> 00:24:37.849
to address the elephant in the room. The meme.

00:24:38.470 --> 00:24:41.430
The paradox of tolerance. We've set the stage.

00:24:41.569 --> 00:24:43.769
Now let's unpack it properly. Let's do it. The

00:24:43.769 --> 00:24:45.549
internet version, the one you see in that cartoon,

00:24:45.809 --> 00:24:50.269
is basically, if you are intolerant, I don't

00:24:50.269 --> 00:24:53.210
have to tolerate you. So I can punch you or ban

00:24:53.210 --> 00:24:55.789
you or deplatform you. Which is a very dangerous

00:24:55.789 --> 00:24:58.349
and simplistic reading. Yeah. Because who defines

00:24:58.349 --> 00:25:01.309
intolerant? If I disagree with your tax policy,

00:25:01.549 --> 00:25:04.710
am I being intolerant? Can you silence me? It

00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:07.650
becomes a weapon to shut down any dissent. So

00:25:07.650 --> 00:25:10.730
what was Popper's actual nuanced argument? He

00:25:10.730 --> 00:25:13.710
was a staunch, almost absolute defender of free

00:25:13.710 --> 00:25:16.529
speech. He says, and this is a key quote, I do

00:25:16.529 --> 00:25:18.569
not imply that we should always suppress the

00:25:18.569 --> 00:25:20.490
utterance of intolerant philosophies. As long

00:25:20.490 --> 00:25:22.549
as we can counter them by rational argument and

00:25:22.549 --> 00:25:24.890
keep them in check by public opinion, suppression

00:25:24.890 --> 00:25:27.910
would certainly be most unwise. So if a guy is

00:25:27.910 --> 00:25:29.930
standing on a street corner shouting some hateful

00:25:29.930 --> 00:25:33.490
garbage, Popper's first instinct is let him shout

00:25:33.490 --> 00:25:35.490
and then go over there and debate him. Show everyone

00:25:35.490 --> 00:25:38.680
why he's wrong. Yes. Don't make him a martyr.

00:25:39.039 --> 00:25:41.359
Don't drive his ideas underground where they

00:25:41.359 --> 00:25:43.960
can't be challenged. Defeat him with better ideas

00:25:43.960 --> 00:25:46.119
in the open marketplace. But there is a limit.

00:25:46.440 --> 00:25:48.559
There is a red line. There is a clear red line.

00:25:48.660 --> 00:25:51.039
He says we reserve the right to suppress them,

00:25:51.140 --> 00:25:54.119
if necessary, even by force, if they are not

00:25:54.119 --> 00:25:56.140
prepared to meet us on the level of rational

00:25:56.140 --> 00:25:59.039
argument, but begin by denouncing all argument.

00:25:59.359 --> 00:26:01.660
They may forbid their followers to listen to

00:26:01.660 --> 00:26:04.549
rational argument. and teach them to answer arguments

00:26:04.549 --> 00:26:07.250
by the use of their fists or pistols. So the

00:26:07.250 --> 00:26:09.990
moment you stop talking and you pick up a rock,

00:26:10.190 --> 00:26:12.730
you lose your right to be tolerated. Or even

00:26:12.730 --> 00:26:14.630
the moment you start inciting other people to

00:26:14.630 --> 00:26:17.109
pick up rocks and abandon debate. It's not about

00:26:17.109 --> 00:26:19.690
the content of their ideas, however vile. It's

00:26:19.690 --> 00:26:22.049
about their refusal to participate in the process

00:26:22.049 --> 00:26:25.769
of rational debate itself. If you use your freedom

00:26:25.769 --> 00:26:28.250
of speech to destroy the very possibility of

00:26:28.250 --> 00:26:30.430
free speech for others, you've broken the social

00:26:30.430 --> 00:26:32.910
contract of the open society. But it's a measure

00:26:32.910 --> 00:26:35.630
of left resort. It's a defensive measure to protect

00:26:35.630 --> 00:26:38.829
tolerance, not an offensive tool for canceling

00:26:38.829 --> 00:26:41.809
people you find annoying. Precisely. That nuance

00:26:41.809 --> 00:26:45.849
is missing from 99 .9 % of the Twitter debates

00:26:45.849 --> 00:26:49.210
on this topic. Nuance usually is. Before we get

00:26:49.210 --> 00:26:51.009
to the really trippy metaphysics, there is one

00:26:51.009 --> 00:26:53.470
more political point in the notes. The conspiracy

00:26:53.470 --> 00:26:57.269
theory of society. This feels huge right now.

00:26:57.410 --> 00:26:59.450
It's the default setting of the modern mind,

00:26:59.509 --> 00:27:02.039
isn't it? Something bad happens, a pandemic,

00:27:02.220 --> 00:27:06.200
a recession, a war, and we assume someone planned

00:27:06.200 --> 00:27:09.480
this. The elites, the deep state, the globalists,

00:27:09.500 --> 00:27:11.619
there's always a shadowy group pulling the strings.

00:27:11.920 --> 00:27:14.200
Popper says this is a theological error. It's

00:27:14.200 --> 00:27:16.099
a secularized version of the belief in gods.

00:27:16.619 --> 00:27:18.660
We used to think the gods made the crops fail

00:27:18.660 --> 00:27:21.339
or the storms rage. Now we've killed God, so

00:27:21.339 --> 00:27:22.759
we had to replace him with something just as

00:27:22.759 --> 00:27:24.779
powerful and all -knowing. We replaced him with

00:27:24.779 --> 00:27:27.200
conspirators. We assume that powerful people

00:27:27.200 --> 00:27:29.339
are competent enough to actually control the

00:27:29.339 --> 00:27:33.079
world. And Popper says, they aren't. He says

00:27:33.079 --> 00:27:36.059
famously, nothing ever comes off exactly as intended.

00:27:36.299 --> 00:27:38.720
Even the most powerful dictator in the world

00:27:38.720 --> 00:27:41.119
issues an order. And by the time it trickles

00:27:41.119 --> 00:27:43.420
down through the bureaucracy, it gets misinterpreted.

00:27:43.420 --> 00:27:46.819
It changes. Then it hits the real world and a

00:27:46.819 --> 00:27:49.599
million unintended consequences happen that nobody

00:27:49.599 --> 00:27:51.759
could have predicted. So the recession isn't

00:27:51.759 --> 00:27:54.779
a secret plot by a cabal of bankers. Yeah. It's

00:27:54.779 --> 00:27:58.730
just a massive. complicated screw -up. It's usually

00:27:58.730 --> 00:28:02.930
a toxic mix of greed, incompetence, error, and

00:28:02.930 --> 00:28:04.910
just the chaotic friction of millions of people

00:28:04.910 --> 00:28:07.529
making individual choices. Popper thinks assuming

00:28:07.529 --> 00:28:10.130
a conspiracy is actually wildly optimistic because

00:28:10.130 --> 00:28:12.509
it implies someone is in control. The reality

00:28:12.509 --> 00:28:15.009
that no one is really driving the bus is much,

00:28:15.009 --> 00:28:17.150
much scarier. I think I prefer the Illuminati.

00:28:17.190 --> 00:28:18.769
At least they have a plan, you know? That's the

00:28:18.769 --> 00:28:20.869
psychological appeal. It's comforting. All right,

00:28:20.890 --> 00:28:23.109
let's take a deep breath. We've done the science.

00:28:23.170 --> 00:28:26.079
We've done the politics. Now... The notes say

00:28:26.079 --> 00:28:28.579
we're going to the three worlds. And frankly,

00:28:28.700 --> 00:28:30.259
this part of the outline looks a little sci -fi.

00:28:30.339 --> 00:28:33.460
It is where Popper gets really creative and a

00:28:33.460 --> 00:28:36.859
bit strange. He wasn't just a dry logician. He

00:28:36.859 --> 00:28:39.880
had a theory of reality and ontology. He said

00:28:39.880 --> 00:28:42.380
the entire universe consists of three distinct

00:28:42.380 --> 00:28:45.359
but interacting worlds. Okay. Let's start with

00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:47.660
world one. World one is the physical stuff, the

00:28:47.660 --> 00:28:50.460
easy stuff. Atoms, rocks, tables, your brain,

00:28:50.640 --> 00:28:53.680
the stars, plants, animals, everything that physics,

00:28:53.920 --> 00:28:56.549
chemistry, and biology study. Got it. The hardware

00:28:56.549 --> 00:28:58.990
of the universe. So what's World 2? World 2 is

00:28:58.990 --> 00:29:01.549
the psychological stuff. Your subjective consciousness,

00:29:01.970 --> 00:29:03.930
your thoughts, your feelings of joy or pain,

00:29:04.190 --> 00:29:06.670
the feeling of seeing the color blue, your memories.

00:29:06.809 --> 00:29:08.789
It's the software running inside your individual

00:29:08.789 --> 00:29:11.509
head. Okay, the hardware and my personal software.

00:29:11.829 --> 00:29:14.309
For a long time, philosophers pretty much stopped

00:29:14.309 --> 00:29:16.930
there, right? Matter in mind, dualism. Yeah,

00:29:16.930 --> 00:29:19.470
they did. But Popper said, no, there is a third

00:29:19.470 --> 00:29:21.819
crucial thing, and he called it World 3. And

00:29:21.819 --> 00:29:23.900
what is World 3? World 3 consists of the objective

00:29:23.900 --> 00:29:26.000
products of the human mind. Things like myths,

00:29:26.180 --> 00:29:28.460
stories, philosophical arguments, scientific

00:29:28.460 --> 00:29:31.400
theories, mathematical laws, symphonies, engineering

00:29:31.400 --> 00:29:35.140
diagrams, legal codes. But wait a minute. A book

00:29:35.140 --> 00:29:38.339
containing a theory is World 1. It's paper and

00:29:38.339 --> 00:29:41.119
ink. And my understanding of the theory is, in

00:29:41.119 --> 00:29:44.130
my head... That's world two. Why do we need a

00:29:44.130 --> 00:29:46.630
separate world three? This is the key. Popper

00:29:46.630 --> 00:29:49.250
argued that once you create an idea and put it

00:29:49.250 --> 00:29:51.490
out into the world, once you write the book or

00:29:51.490 --> 00:29:53.710
compose the symphony, it becomes autonomous.

00:29:53.809 --> 00:29:56.470
It takes on a life of its own, independent of

00:29:56.470 --> 00:29:59.450
its creator and of any individual mind. I'm not

00:29:59.450 --> 00:30:01.390
sure I get that. Give me a concrete example.

00:30:01.730 --> 00:30:26.480
Think about the number system. Oh. Oh. They exist

00:30:26.480 --> 00:30:28.660
objectively, whether we know about them or not.

00:30:28.819 --> 00:30:31.559
So World 3 is like a jungle we planted, but things

00:30:31.559 --> 00:30:33.619
are now growing in it that we didn't plant ourselves.

00:30:34.039 --> 00:30:36.299
That's a perfect analogy. Or think about an algorithm

00:30:36.299 --> 00:30:39.480
today. A team of coders writes a social media

00:30:39.480 --> 00:30:42.000
algorithm. That's a World 3 object. That algorithm

00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:43.799
is then released onto the Internet. It starts

00:30:43.799 --> 00:30:46.299
interacting with millions of teenagers. It starts

00:30:46.299 --> 00:30:48.519
changing their self -esteem, which is World 2.

00:30:48.680 --> 00:30:51.099
It keeps them awake at night, raising their cortisol

00:30:51.099 --> 00:30:53.940
levels, which is World 1. And the coders didn't

00:30:53.940 --> 00:30:55.920
intend for the algorithm to cause insomnia in

00:30:55.920 --> 00:30:58.500
a kid in Ohio. Exactly. But the World 3 object

00:30:58.500 --> 00:31:01.380
is doing it. It has real causal power. It acts

00:31:01.380 --> 00:31:03.900
back on World 2 and World 1. World 3 pushes back.

00:31:04.279 --> 00:31:06.119
That makes the thought experiment in the outline,

00:31:06.279 --> 00:31:08.579
the one about the libraries, really haunting.

00:31:08.759 --> 00:31:11.700
It is. Popper asks, If the human race was wiped

00:31:11.700 --> 00:31:14.480
out tomorrow, every single world to mind just

00:31:14.480 --> 00:31:16.700
gone, and all our machines broke down, world

00:31:16.700 --> 00:31:19.220
one tools all gone, but our libraries remained

00:31:19.220 --> 00:31:22.720
intact, does the knowledge still exist? If an

00:31:22.720 --> 00:31:25.359
alien lands and decodes a physics textbook, the

00:31:25.359 --> 00:31:27.859
knowledge is dormant, but it is objectively there.

00:31:28.319 --> 00:31:31.180
The solution to a problem is in that book, waiting.

00:31:31.420 --> 00:31:33.900
It doesn't need a human mind to actively sustain

00:31:33.900 --> 00:31:36.680
it. It has crystallized into a world three object.

00:31:36.940 --> 00:31:39.420
I feel like this has to connect to his view on

00:31:39.420 --> 00:31:42.259
evolution. Because if ideas and problems can

00:31:42.259 --> 00:31:45.220
have this objective power, that changes how we

00:31:45.220 --> 00:31:48.460
see biology. Massively. This is his act of Darwinism.

00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:51.539
He hated this standard, almost mechanical view

00:31:51.539 --> 00:31:53.500
of evolution that was common at the time. This

00:31:53.500 --> 00:31:57.180
idea that animals are just passive victims. You

00:31:57.180 --> 00:31:59.319
know, oh, the environment got cold, so the ones

00:31:59.319 --> 00:32:01.599
with thin fur died. It's too passive. It's too

00:32:01.599 --> 00:32:04.059
robotic. Right. Popper proposed the spearhead

00:32:04.059 --> 00:32:06.680
model. He said the organism is an explorer. It

00:32:06.680 --> 00:32:08.859
has goals. It is trying to solve problems. The

00:32:08.859 --> 00:32:10.920
hopeful behavioral monster. I love that name.

00:32:10.920 --> 00:32:13.079
It sounds like a rock band. It's great, isn't

00:32:13.079 --> 00:32:15.599
it? The core idea is that the behavior often

00:32:15.599 --> 00:32:18.880
changes before the body does. The mind leads

00:32:18.880 --> 00:32:21.470
the way. How does that work? Take the giraffe.

00:32:21.710 --> 00:32:25.069
The old passive view is random mutations produced

00:32:25.069 --> 00:32:27.589
a giraffe with a slightly longer neck and that

00:32:27.589 --> 00:32:29.549
giraffe survived better and had more babies,

00:32:29.789 --> 00:32:32.630
Popper says. Maybe the giraffe's ancestor developed

00:32:32.630 --> 00:32:35.750
a preference, a world to desire for the tender

00:32:35.750 --> 00:32:38.490
leaves at the tops of the trees. It wanted to

00:32:38.490 --> 00:32:40.690
reach them. So it spent its life stretching its

00:32:40.690 --> 00:32:43.160
neck. Trying to get to those leaves. It pushed

00:32:43.160 --> 00:32:46.519
itself into a new ecological niche. This new

00:32:46.519 --> 00:32:49.519
behavior created a new selection pressure. Now,

00:32:49.619 --> 00:32:52.579
any small genetic mutation that gave a slightly

00:32:52.579 --> 00:32:55.680
longer neck was suddenly hugely valuable. The

00:32:55.680 --> 00:32:58.660
mind, the desire, the problem solving led the

00:32:58.660 --> 00:33:01.319
way. The physical body followed over generations.

00:33:01.799 --> 00:33:04.140
That puts the mind and preference in the driver's

00:33:04.140 --> 00:33:06.680
seat of evolution, not just random chance. It

00:33:06.680 --> 00:33:09.319
restores a kind of dignity and agency to life.

00:33:09.819 --> 00:33:11.859
We aren't just clay being molded by the wind

00:33:11.859 --> 00:33:14.720
and rain. We are active agents solving problems.

00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:16.859
Which leads us directly to the question of free

00:33:16.859 --> 00:33:19.400
will. He was an interactionist dualist, which

00:33:19.400 --> 00:33:21.299
is a bit of a mouthful, but he worked with a

00:33:21.299 --> 00:33:24.200
neuroscientist, Sir John Eccles, and they basically

00:33:24.200 --> 00:33:27.400
believed the non -physical mind, world two, genuinely

00:33:27.400 --> 00:33:30.059
controls the physical brain. World one, not just

00:33:30.059 --> 00:33:32.420
the other way around. He called the mind the

00:33:32.420 --> 00:33:34.670
editor. The editor. What does that mean? Think

00:33:34.670 --> 00:33:37.569
of your physical brain as a creative but chaotic

00:33:37.569 --> 00:33:40.109
generator. It's constantly throwing up random

00:33:40.109 --> 00:33:43.710
thoughts, impulses, ideas, maybe spurred by quantum

00:33:43.710 --> 00:33:46.750
indeterminacy at the neuronal level. It's brainstorming.

00:33:47.130 --> 00:33:50.250
But you, the self, the conscious world too, mind

00:33:50.250 --> 00:33:52.750
you, are the editor. You sit at the desk and

00:33:52.750 --> 00:33:55.049
you say, no, not that thought. That's a stupid

00:33:55.049 --> 00:33:57.809
idea. No, not that impulse. That would be rude.

00:33:58.289 --> 00:34:00.549
Yes, that one. That's a good one. Let's act on

00:34:00.549 --> 00:34:03.140
that. So freedom isn't in generating the random

00:34:03.140 --> 00:34:05.420
thoughts. It's in selecting which ones to approve

00:34:05.420 --> 00:34:08.260
and act on. Exactly. Freedom is the power of

00:34:08.260 --> 00:34:10.400
veto. It's the selection mechanism that sits

00:34:10.400 --> 00:34:13.139
on top of the random generation. Wow. Okay. We

00:34:13.139 --> 00:34:16.380
have built a pretty towering statue of this man.

00:34:16.940 --> 00:34:19.380
But we have to be Popperian about Popper himself.

00:34:19.579 --> 00:34:21.159
We have to criticize him. We have to try and

00:34:21.159 --> 00:34:23.639
falsify him. Who are his biggest critics? The

00:34:23.639 --> 00:34:26.679
biggest challenger by far was Thomas Kuhn. He

00:34:26.679 --> 00:34:29.099
wrote the hugely influential book, The Structure

00:34:29.099 --> 00:34:31.380
of Scientific Revolutions. And he basically said,

00:34:31.480 --> 00:34:34.079
Popper, this is a nice, logical story, but have

00:34:34.079 --> 00:34:37.000
you ever actually met a scientist? What do you

00:34:37.000 --> 00:34:39.380
mean by that? Kuhn argued that in the real world,

00:34:39.539 --> 00:34:41.539
scientists don't spend their days actively trying

00:34:41.539 --> 00:34:44.119
to falsify their core theories. They love their

00:34:44.119 --> 00:34:45.900
theories. They've built their entire careers

00:34:45.900 --> 00:34:48.150
on them. them. They have tenure. They have grants.

00:34:48.530 --> 00:34:51.789
The sunk cost fallacy is huge in academia. Enormous.

00:34:51.969 --> 00:34:54.769
Kuhn said if you spent 30 years working on, say,

00:34:54.929 --> 00:34:57.289
string theory and a new experiment comes out

00:34:57.289 --> 00:34:59.409
that seems to contradict it, you don't jump for

00:34:59.409 --> 00:35:02.289
joy and shout, hooray, falsification. You say

00:35:02.289 --> 00:35:04.590
the experimental equipment must be broken or

00:35:04.590 --> 00:35:07.670
the data was analyzed wrong. You invent patches

00:35:07.670 --> 00:35:10.489
and modifications to protect your theory. So

00:35:10.489 --> 00:35:13.030
Kuhn is saying science is more political and

00:35:13.030 --> 00:35:17.800
tribal and. Well, more human than Popper's idealized

00:35:17.800 --> 00:35:20.500
version. Yes. Kuhn's big idea was that science

00:35:20.500 --> 00:35:23.460
works in paradigms. For long periods of normal

00:35:23.460 --> 00:35:25.599
science, everyone agrees on the fundamental rules

00:35:25.599 --> 00:35:27.360
and they just solve little puzzles within that

00:35:27.360 --> 00:35:29.699
framework and they actively ignore the anomalies

00:35:29.699 --> 00:35:32.380
until the anomalies get so numerous and so bad

00:35:32.380 --> 00:35:35.019
that the whole system crashes. That's a paradigm

00:35:35.019 --> 00:35:38.239
shift. So Popper is describing the ideal of how

00:35:38.239 --> 00:35:40.800
science should work, and Kuhn is describing the

00:35:40.800 --> 00:35:43.559
messy reality of how it often does work. That's

00:35:43.559 --> 00:35:46.739
a very fair summary. And Popper really, really

00:35:46.739 --> 00:35:50.260
hated Kuhn's view. He called it the myth of the

00:35:50.260 --> 00:35:53.579
framework. He thought it was a dangerous, relativistic

00:35:53.579 --> 00:35:56.239
idea to say we are all trapped in our paradigms

00:35:56.239 --> 00:35:58.440
and can't talk to each other. He believed we

00:35:58.440 --> 00:36:00.619
could always break out if we had enough critical

00:36:00.619 --> 00:36:03.059
spirit. And what about the naive falsification

00:36:03.059 --> 00:36:06.030
critique? The notes mention the discovery of

00:36:06.030 --> 00:36:07.989
Neptune. Right. This is the practical issue.

00:36:08.110 --> 00:36:10.789
When astronomers in the 19th century looked at

00:36:10.789 --> 00:36:13.590
the orbit of Uranus, it was wrong. It didn't

00:36:13.590 --> 00:36:16.429
follow Newton's laws precisely. So technically,

00:36:16.670 --> 00:36:19.889
Newton's theory of gravity was falsified. Technically,

00:36:19.989 --> 00:36:22.510
yes. A strict Popperian would have had to say,

00:36:22.650 --> 00:36:25.130
OK, throw Newton in the trash. But they didn't.

00:36:25.130 --> 00:36:27.760
They said, maybe the theory is right. But our

00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:29.880
assumptions are wrong. Maybe there is another

00:36:29.880 --> 00:36:32.699
planet out there that we can't see and its gravity

00:36:32.699 --> 00:36:35.519
is pulling on Uranus. So they used Newton's laws

00:36:35.519 --> 00:36:37.920
to predict where this invisible planet must be.

00:36:38.079 --> 00:36:40.219
Exactly. They pointed their telescopes to that

00:36:40.219 --> 00:36:43.320
spot in the sky and there was Neptune. So by

00:36:43.320 --> 00:36:45.500
refusing to give up on the theory, by being a

00:36:45.500 --> 00:36:48.239
bit dogmatic, they made one of the greatest discoveries

00:36:48.239 --> 00:36:51.199
in the history of astronomy. Sometimes being

00:36:51.199 --> 00:36:54.590
stubborn is good. If you falsify a good theory

00:36:54.590 --> 00:36:57.530
too early because of one weird result, you might

00:36:57.530 --> 00:37:00.030
miss the bigger picture. Precisely. Popper later

00:37:00.030 --> 00:37:03.010
admitted this. He said, a certain amount of dogmatism

00:37:03.010 --> 00:37:05.969
is necessary. You have to defend the theory for

00:37:05.969 --> 00:37:07.730
a while to see what it can really do. It's a

00:37:07.730 --> 00:37:10.550
delicate balance. You defend it, but you have

00:37:10.550 --> 00:37:13.630
to know when to fold them, as they say. Exactly.

00:37:13.670 --> 00:37:16.949
The Kenny Rogers philosophy of science. So let's

00:37:16.949 --> 00:37:19.349
bring it all home. Why does Karl Popper matter

00:37:19.349 --> 00:37:22.179
today? We are sitting here in the mid -2020s.

00:37:22.179 --> 00:37:24.760
Why should you, the listener, care about a guy

00:37:24.760 --> 00:37:27.659
who died in 1994? Just look at the world around

00:37:27.659 --> 00:37:30.639
you. We have the rise of new forms of authoritarianism.

00:37:30.679 --> 00:37:33.079
We have strongman leaders promising they alone

00:37:33.079 --> 00:37:35.579
can fix it, that they have the answers. That

00:37:35.579 --> 00:37:38.579
is the closed society fighting back with a vengeance.

00:37:39.340 --> 00:37:41.420
Popper's work is the best intellectual defense

00:37:41.420 --> 00:37:43.719
we have. He reminds us that the strongman is

00:37:43.719 --> 00:37:46.320
a myth. No one knows the future. And in science

00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:49.030
and public life. We have a crisis of trust and

00:37:49.030 --> 00:37:51.369
expertise. People don't trust the experts anymore.

00:37:51.570 --> 00:37:53.610
Popper gives us a way to rebuild that trust,

00:37:53.730 --> 00:37:56.289
but on a more honest foundation. We shouldn't

00:37:56.289 --> 00:37:58.590
say, trust me, I'm a scientist, I know the absolute

00:37:58.590 --> 00:38:01.949
truth. We should say, trust this finding for

00:38:01.949 --> 00:38:04.670
now. Because we have tried our absolute hardest

00:38:04.670 --> 00:38:07.409
to break it, to prove it wrong from every angle,

00:38:07.530 --> 00:38:10.389
and so far, we couldn't. That is a much more

00:38:10.389 --> 00:38:13.090
humble, and frankly, a much more honest pitch.

00:38:13.559 --> 00:38:15.960
And finally, on a personal, individual level,

00:38:16.219 --> 00:38:18.599
Popper's philosophy teaches us how to think.

00:38:18.739 --> 00:38:21.420
It teaches us that being wrong isn't a sin. It's

00:38:21.420 --> 00:38:23.539
not a failure of character. It's a necessary

00:38:23.539 --> 00:38:26.260
step towards being less wrong. I think that's

00:38:26.260 --> 00:38:28.179
the hardest lesson for any of us to learn. Our

00:38:28.179 --> 00:38:30.360
egos hate being wrong. It feels like a personal

00:38:30.360 --> 00:38:32.380
defeat. But if you can learn to separate your

00:38:32.380 --> 00:38:35.380
ego from your ideas, if you can say my idea died

00:38:35.380 --> 00:38:37.440
in that argument, but I am still here and now

00:38:37.440 --> 00:38:39.980
I know better, that is liberation. That is the

00:38:39.980 --> 00:38:42.610
open mind. So here's the challenge for everyone

00:38:42.610 --> 00:38:45.309
listening. The next time you are in an argument

00:38:45.309 --> 00:38:49.070
about politics, about work, about anything, and

00:38:49.070 --> 00:38:51.829
you feel that hot flash of absolute certainty,

00:38:51.829 --> 00:38:55.389
that feeling of I am 100 % right, just pause

00:38:55.389 --> 00:38:58.630
and ask yourself the popper question. What evidence,

00:38:58.789 --> 00:39:01.429
what fact, what piece of information would convince

00:39:01.429 --> 00:39:04.449
me that I am wrong about this? And if the answer

00:39:04.449 --> 00:39:07.599
that comes back is nothing. Then you aren't thinking.

00:39:07.880 --> 00:39:10.119
You're preaching. Yeah. And you've closed the

00:39:10.119 --> 00:39:11.719
door to knowledge. We're going to leave you with

00:39:11.719 --> 00:39:14.539
one final image to chew on. Go back to that alien

00:39:14.539 --> 00:39:18.179
library. The human race is gone. The books are

00:39:18.179 --> 00:39:20.820
all there. World 3 is waiting in the dark. Does

00:39:20.820 --> 00:39:23.199
the truth of the Pythagorean theorem exist if

00:39:23.199 --> 00:39:25.320
there's no one there to read it? Or do we light

00:39:25.320 --> 00:39:27.440
it up with our consciousness? Thanks for diving

00:39:27.440 --> 00:39:29.019
deep with us. We'll see you in the next one.
