WEBVTT

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Welcome to the deep dive. Today, we're getting

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into something that on the surface might seem

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a bit dry, the dividend tax. Right. Sounds like

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something just for accountants. Exactly. But

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we're going to show you that this is so much

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more than a line on a tax form. It's really a

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battleground for big ideas, economic theory,

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political philosophy, even global competition.

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It really is. The way a country decides to tax

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dividends says a lot about what it values. And

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our source material for this is a really extensive...

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overview of global dividend tax policies. So

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our goal here for you is to have you walk away

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with a solid grasp of what this tax is, why it

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kicks off this huge double taxation debate. A

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very fierce debate. Oh, absolutely. And also

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how differently countries all over the world

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handle it, which in turn creates these wildly

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different incentives for companies and for investors.

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So let's just dive in. First principles. What

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exactly is a dividend tax? The simplest terms.

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In simple terms, it's a tax that a government

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levies on dividends. And those dividends are

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just the slice of a company's profits that it

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decides to hand out to its shareholders. It's

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basically a tax on the income you get from owning

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a piece of a company. Okay. And who actually

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pays it? Because it's not always as simple as

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the shareholder just writing a check. No, not

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at all. That's a great point. The primary legal

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liability, so the actual obligation, that rests

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with the shareholder who gets the money. But,

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and this is a big but. In a lot of systems, the

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corporation paying the dividend has to apply

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a withholding tax. So they hold back a certain

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percentage, say 15 or 30 percent, and pay that

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straight to the government. Before the investor

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even sees it. Before the investor sees a dime.

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Now, for someone investing in their own country,

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that withheld amount is usually just a credit

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towards their final tax bill. But for an international

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shareholder, that withholding tax might be the

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only tax they pay in that country. It's a huge

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deal for tax treaties. And this right here brings

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us to the core issue, the central tension we're

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going to be talking about all day. This tax is

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applied on top of the corporate income tax. Exactly.

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The company makes a profit. It pays tax on that

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profit. Then it distributes some of what's left

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and that distribution gets taxed again. That's

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the double taxation everyone's always arguing

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about. The same dollar of profit is getting hit

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twice. That's the phrase that defines the entire

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landscape. It's taxed at the entity level, the

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corporation, and then again at the investor level,

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the shareholder. So naturally, because the second

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tax exists, companies and their owners have found

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some, let's say, creative ways to get money out

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without actually calling it a dividend. What

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are the main strategies they use? The biggest

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one, and you see this everywhere, is the share

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buyback or share repurchase. This is the go -to

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move in any country where the tax on capital

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gains is lower than the tax on dividends. OK,

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so walk me through that. Why is a buyback different

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from a dividend from a tax perspective? It's

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all about classification. When a company pays

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you a cash dividend, that's usually taxed as

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ordinary income or whatever the specific dividend

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tax rate is. But when the company buys back its

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own shares, the shareholder is effectively selling

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an asset. Ah, so it becomes a sale. It becomes

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a sale. And that generates a capital gain, which

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in most places is taxed at a much lower preferential

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rate. So if your capital gains rate is, say,

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15%, but your dividend rate is 35%. It's a no

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-brainer. The shareholder has a massive tax incentive

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to pressure the company to do buybacks instead

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of dividends. It's a very efficient way to turn

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highly taxed income into lower taxed income.

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And it also has the side effect of potentially

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boosting the stock price for the remaining shares.

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A kind of win -win for the shareholders, even

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if it's not always the most productive use of

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that cash. Absolutely. The second big strategy

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is, well, even simpler. Just don't pay anything

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out. Retained earnings. Retained earnings. The

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corporation just holds onto its surplus cash.

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That increases the company's book value and,

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in theory, the market value of the shares over

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time. And you only pay tax on that growth way

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down the line when you finally decide to sell

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the stock. Exactly. The tax is deferred. And

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when you do pay it, it's at that lower capital

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gains rate. So you get deferral and a lower rate.

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It's a very powerful tool for building wealth,

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even if it means capital gets sort of locked

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up inside the company. Right. Now, with private

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companies, it seems like it would be really easy

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for the owner to just borrow money from their

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own company forever instead of taking a dividend.

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How do governments stop that? That's a huge loophole,

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and that's where deemed dividend rules come in.

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This is critical anti -avoidance law in a lot

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of countries. Deemed dividend. Yeah. For a private

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company, the owner could just use company money

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to buy a car, pay for a vacation, or take a giant

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low -interest loan. They're getting the benefit

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of the profits. Without the tax bill of a dividend.

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Precisely. So to shut that down, tax authorities

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have rules that deem those kinds of transactions,

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like a loan that's not at a commercial rate.

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or a salary that's way too high for the work

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being done. They treat it as if it were a formal

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dividend for tax purposes. If they didn't, the

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dividend tax would be basically optional for

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any small business owner. That sets the stage

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perfectly. You have the tax, but you also have

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these powerful incentives to work around it.

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Okay, let's go back in time for Section 1 and

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trace how this whole thing started. The U .S.

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history is a great place to start because it's

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just been so... volatile. It's been a real roller

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coaster. But if you look at the origins of income

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tax systems in general, you see this philosophical

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fight over dividends right from the beginning.

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In the very early days, there was a strong argument

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to just exempt them completely. And the logic

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there was simply to avoid double taxation. Yes,

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that was the core principle. The economic thinking

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was, look, the corporation already paid tax.

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Hitting the shareholder again is just unfair,

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discourages investment. And that idea of fairness

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was actually pretty powerful in shaping early

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tax law. But I imagine the government's need

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for money eventually won out. It always does,

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doesn't it? The first real documented dividend

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taxes pop up in the 17th century. We see them

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in places like the Netherlands and England. The

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big commercial powers of the time. Exactly. They

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had sophisticated markets and they realized that

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profits going to capital owners were a clear

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taxable source of wealth. Yeah. Then as you move

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into the 19th century and more countries adopt

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modern income taxes, the dividend tax becomes

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pretty standard. It's a reliable source of revenue.

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OK, so let's zoom in on the U .S. The story really

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kicks off in 1913. Right. With the 16th Amendment,

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which gave Congress the power to levy an income

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tax. The Revenue Act of 1913 that followed. it

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created a really gentle tax system. The personal

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income tax was just 1%, with a few surtaxes on

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top for the wealthy. And the corporate tax was

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also 1%. So how did they handle dividends in

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that very first system? It wasn't full -on double

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taxation, was it? No, it was actually a really

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interesting compromise. They were clearly trying

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to avoid that double hit. So dividends were completely

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exempt from that main 1 % personal income tax.

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But, and this is the key, they were not exempt

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from the surtaxes. which only kicked in for incomes

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over $20 ,000, a huge amount of money back then.

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So it was a way to tax the dividend income of

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the very wealthy without hitting small investors

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with that double whammy. Exactly. It was a kind

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of an early, maybe clumsy attempt at integrating

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the two tax systems. But that nuance didn't last

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long. The Great Depression changed everything.

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It really did. The government was desperate for

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revenue to fund New Deal programs. So between

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1936 and 1939, Congress just reversed course

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completely. Dividends were made fully taxable

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at the individual's ordinary income tax rate.

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So the double taxation argument just went out

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the window. It took a backseat to the national

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emergency. That period is really what established

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the principle of full classical double taxation

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in the U .S. system. So what happened after the

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war? Did they stick with that high tax model?

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No, the pendulum started to swing back. The 1950s

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brought a new focus on, you know, encouraging

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investment and capital formation. The Tax Reform

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Act of 1954 was a big step. It created a separate

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lower rate for dividends. An acknowledgment that

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the full rate was maybe too punitive. Right.

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And that was built upon in 1981 with another

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act that brought in more exemptions and credits,

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all designed to lessen the tax burden on dividend

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income. So we swing from full taxation to preferential

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treatment. But then it swings back again in the

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80s. A huge swing back. For an 18 -year period.

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From 1985 all the way to 2003, dividends were

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once again taxed at the same rate as ordinary

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income. The big push at the time, especially

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the Reagan -era reforms, was for simplification.

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A flatter, simpler tax code. Exactly. Treat all

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income the same. But that meant if you were in

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the top bracket, your dividends could be taxed

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at rates well over 40%, sometimes climbing towards

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50%. That was really the high watermark for double

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taxation in the modern U .S. Which brings us

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to probably the single biggest shift in a century,

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the Bush tax cuts in 2003. What was the thinking

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behind that dramatic cut? It was a mix of things.

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There was a desire for economic stimulus after

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the dot -com bust and the recession, and a very

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strong philosophical argument against double

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taxation. President Bush made it a centerpiece

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of his platform, arguing it was just unfair and

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bad for the economy, especially for seniors living

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on investment income. And the result was the

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JGTRRA. The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation

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Act of 2003. A mouthful. But it completely changed

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the landscape by creating this new category called

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a qualified dividend. And suddenly that term

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was everywhere. What was the magic of being qualified?

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The magic was that your dividend was no longer

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taxed at your ordinary income rate. Instead,

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it was taxed at the much, much lower long -term

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capital gains rate. All of a sudden, income that

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might have been taxed at... 35 or almost 40 %

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was now taxed at a maximum of 15 % for most people.

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That is a massive shift. A monumental victory

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for opponents of double taxation. But those rates

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were temporary. They were set to expire, which

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created this huge fiscal cliff situation about

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a decade later under the Obama administration.

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A huge moment of drama. If they had done nothing,

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the rates would have snapped back to the old

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system. Top rates back near 40%. To avoid that

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shock, which people were calling taxmageddon,

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Congress passed the American Taxpayer Relief

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Act of 2012, or ATRA. And ATRA was a compromise,

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right? It kept the low rates for most people

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but added a new, higher tier. That's exactly.

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It made the Bush era rates permanent for lower

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- and middle -income taxpayers, but for the highest

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earners. We're talking people with incomes over

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$400 ,000 or $450 ,000. It raised their qualified

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dividend rate from 15 % up to 20%. So let's just

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nail down how it works now, since 2003. It's

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not one flat rate for everyone. No. It's very

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progressive. It's tied to your ordinary income

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tax bracket. So people in the lowest brackets,

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the 10 % and 15 % brackets, they initially paid

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a 5 % tax on their dividends. But here's a wild

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detail. From 2008 to 2012, that rate was cut

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to zero. 0%, a federal tax rate of zero on dividend

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income. Zero. It's a huge incentive for people

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just starting out or for retirees. And that 0

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% rate has mostly stayed in place for those lower

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brackets. Yeah. Then you have the big middle

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chunk of taxpayers. They've consistently paid

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15%. And only the very top earners, the ones

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in the highest income bracket, pay that 20 %

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rate. But wait, there's another layer, something

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that came in with the Affordable Care Act, the

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NIIT. Yes. You can't forget the net investment

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income tax. It's a crucial part of the modern

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system. It came into effect in 2013. And it's

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a separate 3 .8 % tax that applies to, well,

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net investment income. So that includes dividend.

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It includes dividends, capital gains, rent. all

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that passive income. And who pays this extra

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3 .8 percent? It's specifically targeted at high

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earners. It kicks in for married couples with

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a modified adjusted gross income over $250 ,000

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and for single people over $200 ,000. And it's

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in addition to the regular dividend tax. It's

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not a replacement. And the really critical thing

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about that threshold, the $250 ,000, it's stuck.

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That's the part people miss. It is not indexed

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for inflation. So every single year. As wages

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and prices rise, more and more people are going

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to cross that line and get hit with this extra

00:12:14.039 --> 00:12:16.200
tax. It's what's known as bracket creep. So a

00:12:16.200 --> 00:12:18.120
tax that was meant for the very wealthy will,

00:12:18.259 --> 00:12:20.620
over time, start to affect more of the upper

00:12:20.620 --> 00:12:22.860
middle class. That means that the top effective

00:12:22.860 --> 00:12:25.519
federal rate on qualified dividends today is

00:12:25.519 --> 00:12:29.259
23 .8 percent. The 20 percent plus the 3 .8.

00:12:29.399 --> 00:12:31.200
And that number is just going to apply to more

00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:33.240
and more people as time goes on. It's just a

00:12:33.240 --> 00:12:35.799
perfect summary of the whole story. A century

00:12:35.799 --> 00:12:38.100
of swinging back and forth, ending with this

00:12:38.100 --> 00:12:41.519
incredibly complex tiered system with this extra

00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:44.000
unindexed levy on top. It shows there's just

00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:46.919
no consensus. That lack of consensus is the perfect

00:12:46.919 --> 00:12:49.340
entry point for Section 2, the core conflict.

00:12:49.559 --> 00:12:51.879
Let's unpack the arguments. Why do some people

00:12:51.879 --> 00:12:54.539
see this tax as completely necessary and fair?

00:12:55.159 --> 00:12:57.340
Let's start with the pro -tax side, the separate

00:12:57.340 --> 00:13:00.019
entity perspective. Okay, so the whole foundation

00:13:00.019 --> 00:13:02.960
for this argument is the legal basis of a corporation.

00:13:03.299 --> 00:13:06.840
The idea that a corporation is, legally speaking,

00:13:07.139 --> 00:13:10.700
a person. It's a separate entity from its owners,

00:13:10.799 --> 00:13:13.519
with its own rights and its own responsibilities.

00:13:13.539 --> 00:13:15.879
And the single biggest benefit it gets from being

00:13:15.879 --> 00:13:18.779
a separate person is limited liability. Absolutely.

00:13:18.940 --> 00:13:21.500
That is the holy grail. It means if the company

00:13:21.500 --> 00:13:24.399
fails... If it goes bankrupt, your personal assets

00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:26.840
are safe. The creditors can't come after your

00:13:26.840 --> 00:13:29.720
house. You only lose what you invested. And the

00:13:29.720 --> 00:13:32.000
argument is that this huge privilege isn't just

00:13:32.000 --> 00:13:35.179
a given. It's granted by society. Exactly. It's

00:13:35.179 --> 00:13:37.299
not a natural right. Yeah. So there has to be

00:13:37.299 --> 00:13:39.600
a price for it. And our source material quotes

00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:41.820
Professor Ahmadi on this. And he's a very clear

00:13:41.820 --> 00:13:43.559
argument. I remember that. He says the corporate

00:13:43.559 --> 00:13:45.919
income tax is the price you pay for limited liability.

00:13:46.559 --> 00:13:50.200
And on top of that, this separate legal. person,

00:13:50.340 --> 00:13:53.440
the corporation, it uses public goods. It uses

00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:56.299
roads. It relies on courts to enforce contracts.

00:13:56.519 --> 00:13:59.080
It benefits from a national defense. So it has

00:13:59.080 --> 00:14:02.039
its own independent duty to pay taxes to support

00:14:02.039 --> 00:14:04.700
all that. And the scale of this is just enormous.

00:14:05.039 --> 00:14:07.159
The sources point out that while corporations

00:14:07.159 --> 00:14:09.740
are less than 20 percent of firms in the U .S.,

00:14:09.740 --> 00:14:12.039
they generate something like 90 percent of the

00:14:12.039 --> 00:14:14.500
revenue. The economic power that comes from that

00:14:14.500 --> 00:14:17.480
legal status is immense. So the logic follows.

00:14:18.159 --> 00:14:20.960
If the corporation is person A and the shareholder

00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:24.299
is person B, then when money moves from A to

00:14:24.299 --> 00:14:27.700
B, that's a new taxable event, just like your

00:14:27.700 --> 00:14:30.019
salary is a taxable event. So from that perspective,

00:14:30.179 --> 00:14:33.159
it's not double taxation at all. It's just taxation,

00:14:33.419 --> 00:14:36.240
two separate entities, two separate taxes. That's

00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:38.399
the legal argument. There's also an equity argument.

00:14:38.600 --> 00:14:40.500
Why should someone who earns money from sitting

00:14:40.500 --> 00:14:43.059
on a pile of stocks be taxed less than someone

00:14:43.059 --> 00:14:45.269
who earns it through their labor every day? A

00:14:45.269 --> 00:14:47.870
very powerful political argument. OK, now let's

00:14:47.870 --> 00:14:49.549
flip it completely. Let's look at the argument

00:14:49.549 --> 00:14:51.549
against the dividend tax. This is the one you

00:14:51.549 --> 00:14:53.850
hear from groups like the Cato Institute. Why

00:14:53.850 --> 00:14:55.929
do they say it's so damaging? Their argument

00:14:55.929 --> 00:14:58.070
is that the legal fiction is just that, a fiction.

00:14:58.450 --> 00:15:00.990
The economic reality is that only people can

00:15:00.990 --> 00:15:04.090
pay taxes. A corporation can't. And according

00:15:04.090 --> 00:15:06.009
to economists at places like the Treasury and

00:15:06.009 --> 00:15:09.370
the CBO, the burden of the corporate tax falls

00:15:09.370 --> 00:15:12.409
almost entirely on the owners of capital. On

00:15:12.409 --> 00:15:15.000
the shareholders. On the shareholders. So when

00:15:15.000 --> 00:15:17.039
you tax the corporation and then tax the dividend,

00:15:17.279 --> 00:15:20.879
you are, in economic reality, taxing the same

00:15:20.879 --> 00:15:23.580
person twice on the same stream of income. And

00:15:23.580 --> 00:15:26.179
they say this creates huge distortions in the

00:15:26.179 --> 00:15:28.120
economy. Let's start with the one about debt.

00:15:28.539 --> 00:15:31.059
This is probably the biggest one. Interest that

00:15:31.059 --> 00:15:33.299
a company pays on its debt is tax deductible.

00:15:33.620 --> 00:15:36.179
But dividends it pays on its equity are not.

00:15:36.440 --> 00:15:39.200
The tax code subsidizes borrowing. It creates

00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:41.480
a massive artificial bias towards debt financing

00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:43.759
over equity financing. This encourages companies

00:15:43.759 --> 00:15:46.320
to load up on debt, to become highly leveraged,

00:15:46.379 --> 00:15:48.200
and that makes the whole economy more fragile.

00:15:48.360 --> 00:15:51.000
When a recession hits, it's those highly indebted

00:15:51.000 --> 00:15:53.440
companies that go bankrupt first, and that can

00:15:53.440 --> 00:15:56.299
turn a small downturn into a major crisis. But

00:15:56.299 --> 00:15:59.240
couldn't you argue that having debt forces managers

00:15:59.240 --> 00:16:01.840
to be more disciplined? That's a counterargument

00:16:01.840 --> 00:16:04.580
you hear, sure. The debt holders provide a layer

00:16:04.580 --> 00:16:07.480
of oversight. But the response is that the tax

00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:09.779
code should be neutral. It shouldn't be picking

00:16:09.779 --> 00:16:12.679
winners and losers between debt and equity. The

00:16:12.679 --> 00:16:14.899
market should decide the right capital structure,

00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:18.399
not the tax code. OK, what about the second distortion,

00:16:18.740 --> 00:16:22.000
the one about what executives do with all that

00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:24.919
cash? This is the wasteful retention argument.

00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:27.700
Because paying a dividend triggers that second

00:16:27.700 --> 00:16:30.419
tax, there's a big disincentive to do it. So

00:16:30.419 --> 00:16:33.220
what happens? The cash piles up inside the company.

00:16:33.360 --> 00:16:36.320
Creating a huge war chest for the CEO. Exactly.

00:16:36.539 --> 00:16:39.179
And that creates what economists call an agency

00:16:39.179 --> 00:16:42.269
problem. The managers might be tempted to use

00:16:42.269 --> 00:16:45.289
that cash on projects that boost their own egos.

00:16:45.720 --> 00:16:48.440
like flashy mergers instead of projects that

00:16:48.440 --> 00:16:50.120
are actually profitable for the shareholders.

00:16:50.379 --> 00:16:52.559
So capital gets tracked inside a company earning

00:16:52.559 --> 00:16:55.240
a 5 % return when the shareholders could have

00:16:55.240 --> 00:16:57.159
taken it as a dividend and invested it somewhere

00:16:57.159 --> 00:16:59.740
else for a 10 % return. That's the misallocation

00:16:59.740 --> 00:17:02.059
argument in a nutshell. It starves the most productive

00:17:02.059 --> 00:17:04.240
parts of the economy and bloats the less efficient

00:17:04.240 --> 00:17:06.440
ones. This gets even more complicated when you

00:17:06.440 --> 00:17:08.180
try to figure out what a shareholder's actual

00:17:08.180 --> 00:17:11.119
income is. This is where hidden gains come in.

00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:13.559
This gets a little technical, but it's so important.

00:17:13.720 --> 00:17:15.920
Your true income as a shareholder isn't just

00:17:15.920 --> 00:17:18.519
the dividend check you get. It's the total change

00:17:18.519 --> 00:17:21.579
in the value of your shares. That includes things

00:17:21.579 --> 00:17:24.420
like a company getting a new patent or cornering

00:17:24.420 --> 00:17:26.920
a new market. Those things increase the stock's

00:17:26.920 --> 00:17:29.500
value, but they're not taxed at the corporate

00:17:29.500 --> 00:17:32.480
level right away. So when the dividend finally

00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:35.609
gets paid. What are you actually being taxed

00:17:35.609 --> 00:17:37.670
on? That's the tricky part. When a company pays

00:17:37.670 --> 00:17:41.069
a $1 dividend, you get a dollar in cash. But

00:17:41.069 --> 00:17:43.589
the value of your stock drops by about a dollar.

00:17:43.750 --> 00:17:45.769
Your net worth hasn't changed at that moment.

00:17:45.950 --> 00:17:48.849
The dividend tax is actually a tax on the past

00:17:48.849 --> 00:17:52.049
growth and past earnings that are now being formally

00:17:52.049 --> 00:17:55.250
recognized. I see. And that past growth is a

00:17:55.250 --> 00:17:58.119
mix of things. Some of it was from those untaxed

00:17:58.119 --> 00:18:00.200
hidden gains, but some of it was from profits

00:18:00.200 --> 00:18:02.500
that were already hit by the corporate tax. So

00:18:02.500 --> 00:18:05.279
it's a messy delayed tax that absolutely includes

00:18:05.279 --> 00:18:07.559
a double hit on some of that money. And it's

00:18:07.559 --> 00:18:10.619
that mismatch that drives all this tax planning

00:18:10.619 --> 00:18:14.099
and strange economic behavior. Which is why our

00:18:14.099 --> 00:18:16.960
sources say that a broadly accepted solution

00:18:16.960 --> 00:18:21.039
to all these distortions, well... It's yet to

00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:23.299
be found. The difficulty of finding any certainty

00:18:23.299 --> 00:18:25.839
here is perfectly summed up by that story about

00:18:25.839 --> 00:18:28.519
the French study. Oh, yeah. The 2022 study in

00:18:28.519 --> 00:18:31.059
the American Economic Review. It was a huge deal

00:18:31.059 --> 00:18:32.980
for a moment. It looked at what happened when

00:18:32.980 --> 00:18:35.609
France jacked up its dividend tax rates. And

00:18:35.609 --> 00:18:37.950
it found the opposite of what you'd expect. It

00:18:37.950 --> 00:18:39.950
found that, yes, companies paid fewer dividends,

00:18:40.049 --> 00:18:42.170
but they ended up reinvesting more of that money

00:18:42.170 --> 00:18:44.390
back into their own businesses. Yeah. The initial

00:18:44.390 --> 00:18:46.710
conclusion was, hey, maybe this tax doesn't cause

00:18:46.710 --> 00:18:49.069
misallocation at all. Maybe it even reduces it.

00:18:49.170 --> 00:18:51.529
But then the story takes a turn. A big turn.

00:18:51.690 --> 00:18:54.190
The study was retracted. Other researchers found,

00:18:54.269 --> 00:18:56.930
quote, inconsistencies in the data. It was a

00:18:56.930 --> 00:19:00.490
huge controversy. Wow. To have a study in a top

00:19:00.490 --> 00:19:03.390
journal retracted on a topic this big. It's a

00:19:03.390 --> 00:19:06.569
massive cautionary tale. It just shows how hard

00:19:06.569 --> 00:19:09.069
it is to get clean data and prove cause and effect

00:19:09.069 --> 00:19:11.670
in this area. Even though the original authors

00:19:11.670 --> 00:19:13.869
argued the issues didn't change the main results,

00:19:14.170 --> 00:19:16.349
the retraction itself proves that policymakers

00:19:16.349 --> 00:19:19.329
are often working with very shaky evidence. So

00:19:19.329 --> 00:19:21.829
given all this controversy, what are the big

00:19:21.829 --> 00:19:24.529
ideas for fixing this mess? They usually fall

00:19:24.529 --> 00:19:27.210
into two buckets. You can either just lower the

00:19:27.210 --> 00:19:29.630
rates on dividends, on capital gains, on corporate

00:19:29.630 --> 00:19:32.960
profits to reduce the friction. Or you can go

00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:35.460
for a more structural change to actually integrate

00:19:35.460 --> 00:19:38.259
the systems. Like what? Well, you could let companies

00:19:38.259 --> 00:19:40.259
deduct their dividend payments as an expense,

00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:42.980
just like they do with interest. Or a cleaner

00:19:42.980 --> 00:19:45.019
way might be to just make any dividend paid out

00:19:45.019 --> 00:19:47.599
of already taxed corporate profits completely

00:19:47.599 --> 00:19:49.799
tax -free to the shareholder. The goal is the

00:19:49.799 --> 00:19:52.539
same. Make sure that stream of profit only gets

00:19:52.539 --> 00:19:55.700
taxed once. Right. And that really gets us into

00:19:55.700 --> 00:19:57.720
how different countries have tried to solve this.

00:19:57.880 --> 00:20:00.240
So let's move to Section 3 and look at the global

00:20:00.240 --> 00:20:03.619
picture because the variety is incredible. The

00:20:03.619 --> 00:20:06.900
global data is fascinating, especially when you

00:20:06.900 --> 00:20:09.740
compare a country's tax rate on capital gains

00:20:09.740 --> 00:20:13.220
to its rate on dividends. That difference, that

00:20:13.220 --> 00:20:15.740
spread, tells you everything about its policy

00:20:15.740 --> 00:20:18.359
priorities. Because, as we said, that spread

00:20:18.359 --> 00:20:20.720
drives the choice between buybacks and dividends.

00:20:20.980 --> 00:20:22.940
Exactly. So let's look at the countries with

00:20:22.940 --> 00:20:25.329
a big positive spread. where the dividend tax

00:20:25.329 --> 00:20:28.049
is way higher than the capital gains tax. This

00:20:28.049 --> 00:20:30.650
is a giant flashing sign that says... don't pay

00:20:30.650 --> 00:20:32.609
dividends. And who's at the top of that list?

00:20:32.869 --> 00:20:34.869
South Korea is the most extreme. They have a

00:20:34.869 --> 00:20:38.210
massive 44 percentage point spread, a huge incentive

00:20:38.210 --> 00:20:41.170
for buybacks. Belgium is next at 30 percent,

00:20:41.230 --> 00:20:43.170
then Slovenia. These countries are effectively

00:20:43.170 --> 00:20:46.089
forcing companies to retain cash or use buybacks.

00:20:46.250 --> 00:20:48.170
Then you have the neutral countries, the ones

00:20:48.170 --> 00:20:49.990
that try not to pick a side. Right. The countries

00:20:49.990 --> 00:20:52.829
with a zero spread. And this list includes the

00:20:52.829 --> 00:20:54.970
U .S., which makes sense given the changes in

00:20:54.970 --> 00:20:58.059
2003. Who else is in that club? Denmark, France,

00:20:58.319 --> 00:21:02.519
Germany, Japan, Spain, a lot of the big OECD

00:21:02.519 --> 00:21:05.299
economies. For the U .S., it means the top rate

00:21:05.299 --> 00:21:07.700
on qualified dividends is the same as the top

00:21:07.700 --> 00:21:10.480
rate on long term capital gains. The policy is

00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:12.900
officially neutral on how a company should return

00:21:12.900 --> 00:21:15.279
cash to shareholders. And then there are the

00:21:15.279 --> 00:21:17.819
weird ones, the countries with a negative spread,

00:21:18.000 --> 00:21:20.400
where it's actually more tax efficient to receive

00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:23.420
a dividend than a capital gain. This is much

00:21:23.420 --> 00:21:26.240
rarer, but you see it. Estonia and Latvia have

00:21:26.240 --> 00:21:29.279
a big negative spread of 20%. Greece is at negative

00:21:29.279 --> 00:21:32.019
10. It's an unusual choice, maybe designed to

00:21:32.019 --> 00:21:33.720
encourage companies to pay out cash quickly.

00:21:33.940 --> 00:21:36.599
Beyond just rates, some countries have entirely

00:21:36.599 --> 00:21:38.920
different systems. Let's talk about the imputation

00:21:38.920 --> 00:21:41.420
system in Australia. How does that work? The

00:21:41.420 --> 00:21:43.519
imputation system is, I think, a really elegant

00:21:43.519 --> 00:21:46.099
solution to the double tax problem. It directly

00:21:46.099 --> 00:21:48.099
connects the corporate tax to the shareholder's

00:21:48.099 --> 00:21:50.059
tax. So let's use an example. A company earns

00:21:50.059 --> 00:21:53.259
$100. The corporate tax rate is 30%. The company

00:21:53.259 --> 00:21:56.339
pays $30 in tax. Right, so it has $70 left to

00:21:56.339 --> 00:21:58.779
distribute as a dividend. Under an imputation

00:21:58.779 --> 00:22:01.859
system, when it pays you that $70 dividend, it

00:22:01.859 --> 00:22:04.000
also gives you a certificate, a franking credit,

00:22:04.220 --> 00:22:07.519
for the $30 in tax it already paid. Okay. So

00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:10.200
you, the shareholder, declare the full $100 of

00:22:10.200 --> 00:22:13.259
pre -tax profit as your income. Then you calculate

00:22:13.259 --> 00:22:15.740
your personal tax on that $100. Let's say your

00:22:15.740 --> 00:22:18.859
personal tax rate is 47%. That means you owe

00:22:18.859 --> 00:22:23.119
$47 in tax. But you have the $30 credit. Exactly.

00:22:23.140 --> 00:22:25.279
So you apply that credit and you only have to

00:22:25.279 --> 00:22:28.519
pay the remaining $70. The beauty is the total

00:22:28.519 --> 00:22:31.559
tax paid on that $100 of profit, the $30 by the

00:22:31.559 --> 00:22:35.960
company and the $17 by you adds up to $47, which

00:22:35.960 --> 00:22:38.869
is exactly your personal marginal rate. the corporate

00:22:38.869 --> 00:22:40.829
tax just becomes a prepayment. That's a really

00:22:40.829 --> 00:22:43.430
clean way to solve it. It ensures the total tax

00:22:43.430 --> 00:22:45.890
burden matches the individual's ability to pay.

00:22:46.069 --> 00:22:48.049
It's a very effective integration system. Canada

00:22:48.049 --> 00:22:50.130
does something similar but different with its

00:22:50.130 --> 00:22:52.890
dividend tax credit. Canada also aims for integration,

00:22:53.190 --> 00:22:56.690
but uses a gross -up mechanism. A Canadian shareholder

00:22:56.690 --> 00:22:58.309
gets a dividend, they have to gross it out by

00:22:58.309 --> 00:23:00.390
a certain percentage, and then they get a credit

00:23:00.390 --> 00:23:02.730
to offset the tax. It's notoriously complicated

00:23:02.730 --> 00:23:05.009
because of all the provincial rules, but the

00:23:05.009 --> 00:23:07.029
goal is the same. Give the investor credit for

00:23:07.029 --> 00:23:09.309
the tax the company already paid. And they made

00:23:09.309 --> 00:23:13.140
a change in 2006 to distinguish between... Eligible

00:23:13.140 --> 00:23:16.380
and ineligible dividends. What was that about?

00:23:16.660 --> 00:23:19.920
That was a way to fine tune the system. Eligible

00:23:19.920 --> 00:23:22.500
dividends come from profits that were taxed at

00:23:22.500 --> 00:23:26.220
the high general corporate rate. Ineligible dividends

00:23:26.220 --> 00:23:28.680
come from profits taxed at the lower small business

00:23:28.680 --> 00:23:31.759
rate. The tax credit is bigger for eligible dividends

00:23:31.759 --> 00:23:34.339
to make sure the total tax paid corporate plus

00:23:34.339 --> 00:23:36.920
personal is roughly the same in both cases. OK,

00:23:37.000 --> 00:23:39.700
let's go Asia. India is just a wild case study

00:23:39.700 --> 00:23:42.380
in policy whiplash. It's an absolute roller coaster.

00:23:42.500 --> 00:23:45.500
Before 1997, it was a classic system. The investor

00:23:45.500 --> 00:23:48.480
paid the tax. Then in 97, they switched to a

00:23:48.480 --> 00:23:50.960
dividend distribution tax, the DDT. So the company

00:23:50.960 --> 00:23:53.779
paid the tax instead. Right. Which made the dividend

00:23:53.779 --> 00:23:56.630
tax free for the investor. But that only lasted

00:23:56.630 --> 00:23:59.730
five years. In 2002, they scrapped it and went

00:23:59.730 --> 00:24:01.869
back to the old system. And how did the market

00:24:01.869 --> 00:24:05.150
react to that? It hated it. The sources say it

00:24:05.150 --> 00:24:07.589
caused negative sentiments and stock prices fell.

00:24:07.990 --> 00:24:10.029
So what did the government do? They switched

00:24:10.029 --> 00:24:13.450
back. They switched back. In 2003, the DDT was

00:24:13.450 --> 00:24:15.970
back in. But they kept tweaking the rate upwards

00:24:15.970 --> 00:24:20.109
for the next 17 years. Then in 2020, they scrapped

00:24:20.109 --> 00:24:22.150
it again. They scrapped it again. They went back

00:24:22.150 --> 00:24:24.470
to taxing the investor. The main reason this

00:24:24.470 --> 00:24:26.930
time was to attract foreign investment. Global

00:24:26.930 --> 00:24:29.390
investors find it much easier to claim tax credits

00:24:29.390 --> 00:24:31.509
back home when they're the ones paying the tax

00:24:31.509 --> 00:24:33.849
in India. It just shows how policy gets pulled

00:24:33.849 --> 00:24:35.849
between domestic needs and global competition.

00:24:36.130 --> 00:24:38.470
It really does. OK, let's round out the world

00:24:38.470 --> 00:24:40.369
tour with a few examples from Europe and, of

00:24:40.369 --> 00:24:43.329
course, the places with no tax at all. In Germany,

00:24:43.390 --> 00:24:45.710
they have a flat withholding tax, the Erbgeltungsteuer,

00:24:45.789 --> 00:24:49.470
of 25%. Then they add a 5 .5 % solidarity tax

00:24:49.470 --> 00:24:51.710
on top of that. So the total comes out to about

00:24:51.710 --> 00:24:55.410
26 .4%. It's a simple flat rate on passive income.

00:24:55.609 --> 00:24:57.589
The UK, on the other hand, is very progressive.

00:24:57.990 --> 00:25:00.859
Very. The rate is tied to your income band. It

00:25:00.859 --> 00:25:04.059
starts at 8 .75 % for basic rate taxpayers and

00:25:04.059 --> 00:25:06.960
goes all the way up to 39 .35 % for the highest

00:25:06.960 --> 00:25:09.440
earners. And they've also been slashing the tax

00:25:09.440 --> 00:25:11.480
-free allowance for dividends, so it bites almost

00:25:11.480 --> 00:25:14.400
everyone now. And finally, the outliers. The

00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:16.940
countries that decided the easiest solution is

00:25:16.940 --> 00:25:19.420
just to have no dividend tax at all. You've got

00:25:19.420 --> 00:25:21.680
some major economies on that list. Brazil is

00:25:21.680 --> 00:25:24.599
a big one. Hong Kong, a huge financial center,

00:25:24.680 --> 00:25:28.160
has no dividend tax. Iran, Singapore. For a place

00:25:28.160 --> 00:25:30.099
like Singapore, that has to be a deliberate strategy.

00:25:30.359 --> 00:25:32.539
Oh, it's 100 % a strategic decision to be competitive.

00:25:33.039 --> 00:25:35.339
By having no dividend tax, you make your country

00:25:35.339 --> 00:25:37.319
an incredibly attractive place to set up a corporate

00:25:37.319 --> 00:25:39.700
headquarters or manage capital. It's a policy

00:25:39.700 --> 00:25:42.240
that prioritizes attracting global capital flows

00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:44.839
over collecting that specific stream of domestic

00:25:44.839 --> 00:25:48.150
revenue. The range is just staggering from zero

00:25:48.150 --> 00:25:50.950
in Singapore to complex integration in Australia

00:25:50.950 --> 00:25:53.910
to what is effectively aggressive double taxation

00:25:53.910 --> 00:25:56.869
in South Korea. It proves this is a strategic

00:25:56.869 --> 00:25:59.410
lever that governments pull. It absolutely is.

00:25:59.470 --> 00:26:01.549
The policy choice a country makes really reveals

00:26:01.549 --> 00:26:03.930
its core economic goals. So let's try to wrap

00:26:03.930 --> 00:26:06.470
this all up. We started with what seemed like

00:26:06.470 --> 00:26:09.849
a simple tax, but it opens up this huge unresolved

00:26:09.849 --> 00:26:13.569
conflict. The dividend tax is both a legal necessity

00:26:13.569 --> 00:26:18.029
to make corporations pay their dues and an economic

00:26:18.029 --> 00:26:20.349
distortion that punishes investment. And that

00:26:20.349 --> 00:26:22.809
tension is still there. All these different global

00:26:22.809 --> 00:26:25.730
policies are just different attempts to manage

00:26:25.730 --> 00:26:27.980
that friction. There's no one right answer. And

00:26:27.980 --> 00:26:29.819
the American story shows that policy is just

00:26:29.819 --> 00:26:32.539
constantly in flux, leading to the incredibly

00:26:32.539 --> 00:26:35.059
complex system we have today. And we saw with

00:26:35.059 --> 00:26:37.460
the French study that even the data we use to

00:26:37.460 --> 00:26:40.180
make these huge decisions can be unstable. We're

00:26:40.180 --> 00:26:42.660
often navigating by theory as much as by hard

00:26:42.660 --> 00:26:44.619
evidence. Which leaves us with a final thought

00:26:44.619 --> 00:26:46.559
for you, our listener. We've laid out the two

00:26:46.559 --> 00:26:49.059
camps, the people who say the tax is destructive

00:26:49.059 --> 00:26:51.460
and should be eliminated, and the people who

00:26:51.460 --> 00:26:53.380
say it's a necessary price for the privilege

00:26:53.380 --> 00:26:56.059
of limited liability. And we've seen that the

00:26:56.059 --> 00:26:57.920
global trend seems to be moving towards either

00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:00.900
neutrality or integration to try and reduce those

00:27:00.900 --> 00:27:04.200
economic distortions. So with that in mind, here's

00:27:04.200 --> 00:27:06.609
the question for you. If you were in charge,

00:27:06.849 --> 00:27:09.710
how would you solve this? Would you prioritize

00:27:09.710 --> 00:27:12.589
economic efficiency and lower the tax on capital,

00:27:12.750 --> 00:27:14.490
even if it looks like a giveaway to the wealthy?

00:27:14.849 --> 00:27:18.069
Or would you maintain a strong second tax to

00:27:18.069 --> 00:27:20.569
ensure that the huge benefit of limited liability

00:27:20.569 --> 00:27:23.390
always has a price tag attached? Which solution

00:27:23.390 --> 00:27:25.730
do you think best balances the legal fiction

00:27:25.730 --> 00:27:28.190
and the economic reality of a corporation today?

00:27:28.450 --> 00:27:30.170
It's probably the biggest unanswered question

00:27:30.170 --> 00:27:32.109
in corporate finance. And that's all the time

00:27:32.109 --> 00:27:33.990
we have for this deep dive. Thanks for joining

00:27:33.990 --> 00:27:35.089
us. We'll see you on the next one.
