WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.279 This episode is supported by clear protein. And 00:00:03.279 --> 00:00:05.580 I've got to say, this one really surprised me. 00:00:05.820 --> 00:00:08.500 Most protein powders, thick, chalky, and you 00:00:08.500 --> 00:00:10.300 have to choke them down with some milk. Clear 00:00:10.300 --> 00:00:12.679 is totally different. It's a whey protein isolate 00:00:12.679 --> 00:00:15.419 that mixes clear and water. More like a sports 00:00:15.419 --> 00:00:17.760 drink than a heavy shake. You still get 20 grams 00:00:17.760 --> 00:00:20.719 of protein per serving with zero sugar, zero 00:00:20.719 --> 00:00:23.199 lactose, and none of that bloated feeling you 00:00:23.199 --> 00:00:25.300 get from traditional shakes. The flavors are 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:27.579 actually good too. Strawberry watermelon and 00:00:27.579 --> 00:00:30.600 wild blue raspberry are my go -tos. It's been 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:33.119 perfect for after workouts or even just that 00:00:33.119 --> 00:00:35.700 midday pick -me -up when you don't feel weighted 00:00:35.700 --> 00:00:37.859 down by food. And because you're a listener, 00:00:38.060 --> 00:00:40.579 you get 20 % off your order, the best discount 00:00:40.579 --> 00:00:42.920 they offer anywhere. Just head over to Clear 00:00:42.920 --> 00:00:45.520 Protein and use code ZERO SIGNAL at checkout. 00:00:45.920 --> 00:00:49.020 That's clear with a K, clearprotein .com, code 00:00:49.020 --> 00:00:53.979 ZERO SIGNAL. Hey guys, welcome back to zero signal 00:00:53.979 --> 00:00:57.000 shorts, please like and subscribe Email is at 00:00:57.000 --> 00:00:59.420 zero signal truth at gmail .com. We'd love to 00:00:59.420 --> 00:01:02.399 hear your feedback and your thoughts. So today, 00:01:02.579 --> 00:01:05.540 I thought we would talk about the potential recession 00:01:05.540 --> 00:01:07.739 slash depression that could be right around the 00:01:07.739 --> 00:01:10.480 corner. So looking at the US economic stats, 00:01:10.799 --> 00:01:13.400 it looks like the overall recession probability 00:01:13.400 --> 00:01:16.200 is in the 20 to 40 % range in the next 12 months. 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:18.780 And this is according to JP Morgan. Polymarket 00:01:18.780 --> 00:01:21.560 rates around 40%. So there seems to be a moderate 00:01:21.560 --> 00:01:23.900 risk. It's a little bit down from higher fears 00:01:23.900 --> 00:01:26.680 earlier in the year. I know some of these corporations 00:01:26.680 --> 00:01:30.319 I think are urged or nudged by the government 00:01:30.319 --> 00:01:32.719 to put these odds, make them a little bit less 00:01:32.719 --> 00:01:35.840 detrimental to the agenda at hand. So currently, 00:01:36.299 --> 00:01:38.439 as of the October estimate, it looks like the 00:01:38.439 --> 00:01:41.379 unemployment rate is around 4 .4%. So let's rise 00:01:41.379 --> 00:01:43.200 slowly. It's the highest it's been in the past 00:01:43.200 --> 00:01:45.659 four years. And the number that kind of sticks 00:01:45.659 --> 00:01:49.459 out to me is the... people not participate in 00:01:49.459 --> 00:01:53.299 the labor market. We have roughly 62 .5 % participation 00:01:53.299 --> 00:01:55.760 in the labor market at this time. So that leaves 00:01:55.760 --> 00:01:58.859 about 100 to 105 million people that are currently 00:01:58.859 --> 00:02:01.099 unemployed or not looking for a job. That's a 00:02:01.099 --> 00:02:05.420 scary number. Back in 2015, there was roughly 00:02:05.420 --> 00:02:08.219 90 million people not participating. And despite 00:02:08.219 --> 00:02:12.280 the net gain of about 30 million people in the 00:02:12.280 --> 00:02:16.030 past 10 years, about 8 to 10 million more people 00:02:16.030 --> 00:02:18.150 are not participating. So that's a scary number. 00:02:18.250 --> 00:02:21.250 It makes me take pause and look at that. So I 00:02:21.250 --> 00:02:23.789 think the group that's particularly harmed by 00:02:23.789 --> 00:02:27.189 this or that's having an adverse and increased 00:02:27.189 --> 00:02:29.969 effect is recent college graduates. So their 00:02:29.969 --> 00:02:33.629 employment rate is around 7 .1 % depending on 00:02:33.629 --> 00:02:35.830 what report you look at. So that's the worst 00:02:35.830 --> 00:02:38.509 in decades. And I think a lot of this has to 00:02:38.509 --> 00:02:40.930 do with AI automation. So a lot of entry level 00:02:40.930 --> 00:02:43.870 white color jobs are hit hardest by this AI automation 00:02:43.870 --> 00:02:45.969 and a lot of employers are preferring people 00:02:45.969 --> 00:02:49.530 with experience. So AI is having a direct negative 00:02:49.530 --> 00:02:52.389 effect on these kids coming out of college. It 00:02:52.389 --> 00:02:54.090 was interesting. I read an article the other 00:02:54.090 --> 00:02:57.060 day about. College kids getting their undergrads 00:02:57.060 --> 00:02:59.039 coming out and they're not finding jobs. They 00:02:59.039 --> 00:03:01.379 want so the under employment rate for that group 00:03:01.379 --> 00:03:04.120 is around 41 % so essentially what that means 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:06.719 is that 41 % of the people coming out of college 00:03:06.719 --> 00:03:09.379 or working jobs that don't require a degree there 00:03:09.379 --> 00:03:11.039 are hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt 00:03:11.039 --> 00:03:13.979 potentially and They're taking on jobs that are 00:03:13.979 --> 00:03:16.560 probably hourly jobs that don't really care if 00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:18.599 they have that college degree or not Like I said, 00:03:18.599 --> 00:03:20.479 I was reading the interesting article and due 00:03:20.479 --> 00:03:22.360 to this under employment problem that we have 00:03:22.360 --> 00:03:24.000 a lot of these kids are going back to get their 00:03:24.000 --> 00:03:26.629 MBAs or the law degree. So one of two things 00:03:26.629 --> 00:03:29.270 happens here. A, well, I think both happen here 00:03:29.270 --> 00:03:32.750 in this situation. So A, they get even further 00:03:32.750 --> 00:03:35.810 in debt by taking loans out to finance, either 00:03:35.810 --> 00:03:38.150 getting the law degree or MBA. And two, some 00:03:38.150 --> 00:03:39.789 of those degrees take two to four years, depending 00:03:39.789 --> 00:03:41.590 on where you're going. So when you come out on 00:03:41.590 --> 00:03:42.930 the other side, not only are you going to be 00:03:42.930 --> 00:03:45.370 more in debt, but the AI automation is going 00:03:45.370 --> 00:03:48.650 to replace a ton of white -colored workers. I 00:03:48.650 --> 00:03:50.419 think they're going to... come out the other 00:03:50.419 --> 00:03:53.240 side to a rude awakening that not only are they 00:03:53.240 --> 00:03:55.419 further in debt, but there are actually fewer 00:03:55.419 --> 00:03:58.240 jobs that are going to require these advanced 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:00.400 degrees. So let's look at some AI displacement 00:04:00.400 --> 00:04:03.300 numbers. Just in this year, it was looking like 00:04:03.300 --> 00:04:05.819 between a hundred and two hundred thousand jobs 00:04:05.819 --> 00:04:09.000 were erased off the map due to AI. And globally, 00:04:09.240 --> 00:04:11.460 that number is around one to five million. And 00:04:11.460 --> 00:04:13.439 these are just rough estimations. There's really 00:04:13.439 --> 00:04:16.540 no consensus on the exact total. But I know the 00:04:16.540 --> 00:04:19.680 tech sector was hit hardest and I said 100 to 00:04:19.680 --> 00:04:22.660 200 ,000 in the past two, three years, 80 to 00:04:22.660 --> 00:04:26.000 90 ,000 of those layoffs took place in 2025 alone. 00:04:26.180 --> 00:04:29.620 And that was essentially stated to be layoffs 00:04:29.620 --> 00:04:32.100 siding AI and restructuring. And we know what 00:04:32.100 --> 00:04:34.379 restructuring means. It means cutting your labor 00:04:34.379 --> 00:04:36.839 for us to reduce your expense to become more 00:04:36.839 --> 00:04:39.790 profitable. So earlier in the decade, there wasn't 00:04:39.790 --> 00:04:42.550 a whole lot of stats tracking AI specific losses. 00:04:42.790 --> 00:04:45.149 That's been a recent metric that's starting to 00:04:45.149 --> 00:04:47.490 be tracked in the past two, three years. So with 00:04:47.490 --> 00:04:49.610 the advent of AI and with workers preferring 00:04:49.610 --> 00:04:52.029 people with experience, recent grads are struggling 00:04:52.029 --> 00:04:53.870 disproportionately. Their unemployment rate has 00:04:53.870 --> 00:04:56.750 risen faster than any other group in 2025, often 00:04:56.750 --> 00:04:58.670 exceeding the national average for the first 00:04:58.670 --> 00:05:01.050 time in decades. This reverses the historical 00:05:01.050 --> 00:05:04.250 trend where there was a college premium put on 00:05:04.250 --> 00:05:07.269 people entering the job market. And again, There 00:05:07.269 --> 00:05:10.670 are fewer entry level jobs due to AI automating 00:05:10.670 --> 00:05:12.949 and junior roles in tech, data and HR are just 00:05:12.949 --> 00:05:15.329 really not needed anymore. But an upwards of 00:05:15.329 --> 00:05:19.689 15 % are actually not participating at all. These 00:05:19.689 --> 00:05:23.910 are temporary opt -outs and this is just discouragement 00:05:23.910 --> 00:05:27.310 from applying to thousands of jobs that you've 00:05:27.310 --> 00:05:29.829 all seen the TikTok videos, the YouTube videos 00:05:29.829 --> 00:05:32.970 for people go in, apply for hundreds, if not 00:05:32.970 --> 00:05:35.870 thousands of jobs and get no response in return. 00:05:36.060 --> 00:05:38.300 There's also a big thought that a lot of these 00:05:38.300 --> 00:05:41.819 job postings are actually not active. It's companies 00:05:41.819 --> 00:05:45.339 posting on places like Indeed. and other hiring 00:05:45.339 --> 00:05:48.980 websites in order to keep the guys up that they're 00:05:48.980 --> 00:05:51.060 actually trying to expand. And when in reality, 00:05:51.139 --> 00:05:53.620 they're really not. And if I was in that situation 00:05:53.620 --> 00:05:55.959 and I applied for hundreds of jobs and I wasn't 00:05:55.959 --> 00:05:58.579 getting any sort of feedback or even any interviews, 00:05:58.680 --> 00:06:01.199 I'd be pretty dang discouraged myself. Again, 00:06:01.199 --> 00:06:04.579 we're dealing with a culture who puts a big emphasis 00:06:04.579 --> 00:06:06.120 on the college degree. And I'm not saying that 00:06:06.120 --> 00:06:07.720 they're not important, but you look at these 00:06:07.720 --> 00:06:09.300 schools and look at some of the degrees they 00:06:09.300 --> 00:06:12.360 offer and they're completely irrelevant to what 00:06:12.360 --> 00:06:14.300 most people are going to end up doing with their 00:06:14.300 --> 00:06:16.620 lives. Unless you're going to be professor studying 00:06:16.620 --> 00:06:19.959 something like anthropology or sociology is probably 00:06:19.959 --> 00:06:23.339 not a job that has a high demand outside of the 00:06:23.339 --> 00:06:26.509 educational institutes. So. Again, you have tons 00:06:26.509 --> 00:06:28.889 of kids going to these universities, getting 00:06:28.889 --> 00:06:30.649 degrees that are not going to translate into 00:06:30.649 --> 00:06:32.870 the real world. Not only that, employers are 00:06:32.870 --> 00:06:34.709 preferring people that have real -world work 00:06:34.709 --> 00:06:36.970 experience. I know my degree personally is not 00:06:36.970 --> 00:06:38.509 relevant to anything I've done in my career. 00:06:38.629 --> 00:06:42.329 It's a way to get these people into indentured 00:06:42.329 --> 00:06:44.610 servitude with the debt, barely keeping their 00:06:44.610 --> 00:06:47.029 head above water and paying hundreds, if not 00:06:47.029 --> 00:06:48.730 thousands of dollars a month once they enter 00:06:48.730 --> 00:06:50.889 the workforce to pay down these loans. And then 00:06:50.889 --> 00:06:54.110 we have the hard fact that a lot of these people, 00:06:54.110 --> 00:06:56.610 especially But in the late 90s, early 2000s, 00:06:56.689 --> 00:06:59.350 a ton of people saw computer science, coding 00:06:59.350 --> 00:07:02.029 was the next big thing. But unfortunately with 00:07:02.029 --> 00:07:04.610 the advent of AI, a lot of these coders and a 00:07:04.610 --> 00:07:06.149 lot of these computer scientists are no longer 00:07:06.149 --> 00:07:08.389 needed or wanted. AI can do these jobs themselves. 00:07:08.720 --> 00:07:10.699 And this also spills over into other industries 00:07:10.699 --> 00:07:13.279 as AI becomes more profound. It gets better. 00:07:13.500 --> 00:07:15.180 You're going to lose newscasters. You're going 00:07:15.180 --> 00:07:17.800 to lose actors. You're going to lose influencers. 00:07:18.060 --> 00:07:20.279 I know there was even a story about a big pushback 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:23.079 where companies are using AI models now to display 00:07:23.079 --> 00:07:25.980 their clothing and their wardrobe. Humans are 00:07:25.980 --> 00:07:28.740 being slowly pushed to the periphery. and being 00:07:28.740 --> 00:07:30.660 pushed out of a lot of these spaces where AI 00:07:30.660 --> 00:07:34.180 can come in and take over these roles. So instead 00:07:34.180 --> 00:07:37.120 of paying someone down the street to act, to 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:39.560 read the newscasts, to the heck, to even podcast, 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:43.019 they can create these false identities and the 00:07:43.019 --> 00:07:44.600 corporation can take the money for themselves. 00:07:44.639 --> 00:07:46.699 They don't have to pay all the insurances, all 00:07:46.699 --> 00:07:49.540 the health insurance, all the labor rates, the 00:07:49.540 --> 00:07:51.839 millions of dollars that if someone becomes famous 00:07:51.839 --> 00:07:54.100 enough, they can keep all this money in their 00:07:54.100 --> 00:07:56.300 pocket. And on top of that, the cost of living 00:07:56.300 --> 00:07:59.560 has become Very unaffordable, especially for 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:02.120 the middle and lower classes. The standard American 00:08:02.120 --> 00:08:05.060 lifestyle for most people include owning a modest 00:08:05.060 --> 00:08:07.639 home in a decent area, raising one to three kids, 00:08:07.899 --> 00:08:10.459 driving reliable cars, eating out occasionally, 00:08:10.920 --> 00:08:12.259 saving a little bit at the end of the month to 00:08:12.259 --> 00:08:14.339 throw in the bank account and maybe take a vacation 00:08:14.339 --> 00:08:16.360 once a year if you're lucky. That has shifted 00:08:16.360 --> 00:08:19.319 from being challenging to effectively out of 00:08:19.319 --> 00:08:21.079 reach for the majority of households earning 00:08:21.079 --> 00:08:24.000 a median income or below. So real inflation adjusted, 00:08:24.180 --> 00:08:26.879 the median household income in 2024 was essentially 00:08:26.879 --> 00:08:30.500 flat versus pre pandemic levels in 2019. So the 00:08:30.500 --> 00:08:35.440 nominal rate was $83 ,700 in 2024. And that money 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:38.120 essentially bought the same amount of goods and 00:08:38.120 --> 00:08:40.899 services that would have purchased back in 2019. 00:08:41.179 --> 00:08:43.100 Wages have not grown that much in the last five 00:08:43.100 --> 00:08:45.899 years. But overall, consumer prices have rose 00:08:45.899 --> 00:08:49.340 23 to 25 % in the same period. And this just 00:08:49.340 --> 00:08:51.899 leaves most people worse off in real terms in 00:08:51.899 --> 00:08:54.860 this current time. Pre -pandemic in 2019, the 00:08:54.860 --> 00:08:58.120 medium home price was around $320 ,000, $330 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:01.519 ,000. The mortgage payment on average was around 00:09:01.519 --> 00:09:05.320 on a $300 ,000 loan was 3 .5%. So that came out 00:09:05.320 --> 00:09:09.379 to about $1 ,350 a month. So in late 2025, and 00:09:09.379 --> 00:09:11.440 this is just the reality, the medium existing 00:09:11.440 --> 00:09:15.580 home price is $410 ,000. $435 ,000. New homes 00:09:15.580 --> 00:09:19.899 regularly being sold for $460 ,000 plus and a 00:09:19.899 --> 00:09:23.580 payment on a $350 ,000 loan at a 6 .87 % interest 00:09:23.580 --> 00:09:27.379 rate is $2 ,300 to $2 ,500 a month plus the taxes 00:09:27.379 --> 00:09:29.299 and insurance. So you're looking at around $3 00:09:29.299 --> 00:09:31.500 ,000. That's more than double what it was in 00:09:31.500 --> 00:09:34.299 2019. It's crunching all those numbers. It takes 00:09:34.299 --> 00:09:38.289 roughly 35 to 45 % of gross income. just to buy 00:09:38.289 --> 00:09:40.830 what is considered an affordable home nowadays. 00:09:41.610 --> 00:09:44.330 57 to 75 % of households can't even afford a 00:09:44.330 --> 00:09:46.970 $300 ,000 home. So this is essentially the worst 00:09:46.970 --> 00:09:50.330 in generations. The classic 3X, 4X income rule 00:09:50.330 --> 00:09:53.009 for buying a house is dead. Now it's four to 00:09:53.009 --> 00:09:56.070 five times your median income to buy a home in 00:09:56.070 --> 00:09:58.429 most metros. And first time home buyers are locked 00:09:58.429 --> 00:10:01.330 out unless, you know, there's a dual high income 00:10:01.330 --> 00:10:03.750 earning home or some family help. Not only that, 00:10:03.750 --> 00:10:06.809 I think the rental market is worse. So the actual 00:10:06.889 --> 00:10:10.330 average back in 2019 for a normal one bedroom 00:10:10.330 --> 00:10:13.470 was $1 ,100 to $1 ,200 a month. Now the national 00:10:13.470 --> 00:10:15.950 average for one bedroom is around $1 ,500 to 00:10:15.950 --> 00:10:19.450 $1 ,600 and in many metro areas is $2 ,000 plus. 00:10:19.740 --> 00:10:21.519 I don't even want to talk about the two or three 00:10:21.519 --> 00:10:23.580 bedroom apartments because you just might as 00:10:23.580 --> 00:10:25.299 well add thousands of dollars on top of that. 00:10:25.500 --> 00:10:28.200 You know, about half of renters are cost burdened 00:10:28.200 --> 00:10:30.360 by rents. So if we want to look at groceries 00:10:30.360 --> 00:10:32.600 and food at home, a typical family basket in 00:10:32.600 --> 00:10:35.759 2019 was $800 to $900 a month. The same basket 00:10:35.759 --> 00:10:37.659 now with the same items, if you were to take 00:10:37.659 --> 00:10:40.759 them in just the prices for inflation, that basket 00:10:40.759 --> 00:10:45.100 is now $1 ,100 to $1 ,200. That's 30 to 35 % 00:10:45.100 --> 00:10:48.220 increase. from what it was six years ago, extra 00:10:48.220 --> 00:10:51.700 three, $400 a month versus 2019. And all of this 00:10:51.700 --> 00:10:54.460 on top of wages that really haven't grown in 00:10:54.460 --> 00:10:56.679 proportion with the rate of inflation, the rate 00:10:56.679 --> 00:10:59.220 of the housing market. Looking at cars, the average 00:10:59.220 --> 00:11:02.240 transaction price for a car in 2019 for a brand 00:11:02.240 --> 00:11:06.139 new car was 38 ,000 to 40 ,000. Now just to get 00:11:06.139 --> 00:11:09.360 a new car, you're looking at 50 ,000 plus. I 00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:12.259 can't tell you how many cars are out there. 60 00:11:12.259 --> 00:11:15.899 70 80 thousand the monthly payment is usually 00:11:15.899 --> 00:11:18.960 at 72 months at seven and a nine percent So just 00:11:18.960 --> 00:11:21.259 to get a car now, you're looking at seven fifty 00:11:21.259 --> 00:11:24.279 eight fifty plus insurance and gas the air of 00:11:24.279 --> 00:11:27.159 this reliable new family car under thirty thousand 00:11:27.159 --> 00:11:29.759 is over most affordable cars are now stripped 00:11:29.759 --> 00:11:32.539 to base models or tiny crossovers these little 00:11:32.539 --> 00:11:34.440 cars you get into and if you're over six foot 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:36.840 tall You're struggling to get in and out not 00:11:36.840 --> 00:11:38.679 to mention your wife and your kids with them 00:11:38.679 --> 00:11:41.750 in the back I know Trump just introduced the 00:11:41.750 --> 00:11:44.350 concept of a 50 year mortgage. If you look at 00:11:44.350 --> 00:11:46.409 that, doesn't really lower your payments that 00:11:46.409 --> 00:11:48.720 much every month. All that does is translate 00:11:48.720 --> 00:11:51.679 into more interest that the banks get over time. 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:55.440 So again, another policy that may look good on 00:11:55.440 --> 00:11:58.179 the surface, but on the back end, a 50 year mortgage, 00:11:58.379 --> 00:11:59.860 I don't know what you're going to do if you buy 00:11:59.860 --> 00:12:01.480 a house when you're 40, you're going to work 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:03.679 till you're 90 years old to pay this bad boy 00:12:03.679 --> 00:12:05.500 off, assuming that you're lucky enough to live 00:12:05.500 --> 00:12:08.340 that long. The extra hundreds of thousand dollars 00:12:08.340 --> 00:12:10.580 in interest payments that the bank is reaping 00:12:10.580 --> 00:12:13.720 on the back end. So just not sugarcoating it. 00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:16.919 If you're A medium household income or below 00:12:16.919 --> 00:12:20.519 the 1950s to 1990s version of the American dream 00:12:20.519 --> 00:12:22.340 is mathematically impossible for most of the 00:12:22.340 --> 00:12:24.860 people in the country without extreme sacrifice. 00:12:25.159 --> 00:12:27.460 You don't have kids. You don't have cars. You 00:12:27.460 --> 00:12:29.120 don't want roommates forever. You don't want 00:12:29.120 --> 00:12:31.370 retirement savings. You're treading water at 00:12:31.370 --> 00:12:34.169 best and you're slowly drowning at worst. And 00:12:34.169 --> 00:12:36.370 if you're in the bottom 40 % household income 00:12:36.370 --> 00:12:39.009 of less than 60 ,000, you're already in survival 00:12:39.009 --> 00:12:41.470 mode. You're probably using food banks, working 00:12:41.470 --> 00:12:44.169 multiple jobs, skipping doctor visits, and you're 00:12:44.169 --> 00:12:46.269 in perpetual debt. If you're in the top 20 % 00:12:46.269 --> 00:12:48.889 on the other hand, you're finer or better. Your 00:12:48.889 --> 00:12:51.250 assets are inflating. The stock market keeps 00:12:51.250 --> 00:12:53.690 blowing up recently in the past few days of starting 00:12:53.690 --> 00:12:56.350 to show cracks. But we'll get into that here 00:12:56.350 --> 00:12:58.309 in a minute. And I think that has a lot to do 00:12:58.309 --> 00:13:01.809 with AI. But in the past year, if you had a 401k, 00:13:01.809 --> 00:13:04.129 if you invest it, your assets are just growing 00:13:04.129 --> 00:13:06.429 faster and faster. It doesn't even make sense 00:13:06.429 --> 00:13:08.690 to me logically. In my opinion, a lot of the 00:13:08.690 --> 00:13:11.330 stock market is inflated by companies investing 00:13:11.330 --> 00:13:14.309 in 401ks. So that's the money that you take out 00:13:14.309 --> 00:13:16.669 your paycheck tax -free your company. And at 00:13:16.669 --> 00:13:18.830 least I don't, I know at one point, a lot of 00:13:18.830 --> 00:13:21.070 companies would match up to a certain percentage. 00:13:21.090 --> 00:13:22.830 And I know a lot of them are getting rid of that. 00:13:23.000 --> 00:13:25.399 The government does not want the stock market 00:13:25.399 --> 00:13:28.080 crash to have millions of people, their savings 00:13:28.080 --> 00:13:30.299 to be decimated. I know that happened in 2008. 00:13:30.799 --> 00:13:33.519 I knew a guy who had roughly a million plus in 00:13:33.519 --> 00:13:37.779 his 401k and seemingly overnight that value was 00:13:37.779 --> 00:13:40.070 essentially halved. I can't imagine if you're 00:13:40.070 --> 00:13:41.909 on the cusp of retirement and you watch your 00:13:41.909 --> 00:13:44.370 401k lose half its value in a matter of a week. 00:13:44.629 --> 00:13:47.190 And on top of that, the illegal immigrant surge 00:13:47.190 --> 00:13:50.250 in the past four years has had a pretty profound 00:13:50.250 --> 00:13:53.009 effect on the cost of owning a house. So just 00:13:53.009 --> 00:13:56.330 low estimates that accounts for an additional 00:13:56.330 --> 00:13:59.669 five to 15 % spike within the housing market. 00:13:59.919 --> 00:14:03.360 They want to say that it's a minor driver overall, 00:14:03.879 --> 00:14:07.620 but five to 15 % on the $300, $400 ,000 house 00:14:07.620 --> 00:14:11.600 is fairly significant. And it's definitely having 00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:14.340 an effect on the American citizen. When we look 00:14:14.340 --> 00:14:17.230 in terms of rent. It's caused a pretty moderate 00:14:17.230 --> 00:14:20.350 increase. The highest estimate is around 25%. 00:14:20.350 --> 00:14:23.269 Again, it's significant. And that 25 % is in 00:14:23.269 --> 00:14:25.789 high flow metro areas where these illegals decided 00:14:25.789 --> 00:14:28.070 to come once they got into the country. Nationally, 00:14:28.070 --> 00:14:30.590 it's around 3 to 8%. But still, those percentage 00:14:30.590 --> 00:14:33.649 points over time are huge. And on top of all 00:14:33.649 --> 00:14:35.970 that, with this illegal immigration, it does 00:14:35.970 --> 00:14:38.590 suppress wages. You have these people taking 00:14:38.590 --> 00:14:41.870 jobs at a significantly lower rate than, say, 00:14:41.990 --> 00:14:44.169 the average American would. Again, I know they're 00:14:44.169 --> 00:14:47.080 taking jobs that are less skilled but still as 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:49.500 opposed to making 20 to 25 dollars an hour for 00:14:49.500 --> 00:14:51.879 some of these really difficult labor intensive 00:14:51.879 --> 00:14:54.559 jobs they can pay an illegal alien under the 00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:58.480 table 12 to 15. Again it has a direct correlation 00:14:58.480 --> 00:15:03.000 between the wages not increasing as fast as inflation 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:05.679 is over time. I read another interesting story 00:15:05.679 --> 00:15:07.879 I think it came out in the past week so today 00:15:07.879 --> 00:15:10.279 is November 18th just to put this in context 00:15:10.279 --> 00:15:12.600 as to when I'm getting this information and sharing 00:15:12.600 --> 00:15:16.139 it. But Trump put out, I guess, a directive mandate. 00:15:16.279 --> 00:15:18.360 I'm not real sure what happened to it. I know 00:15:18.360 --> 00:15:20.220 there's been a lot of pushback, but he wanted 00:15:20.220 --> 00:15:25.740 to give 600 ,000 H1B1 visas specifically to colleges 00:15:25.740 --> 00:15:28.179 that come into our universities, mostly Chinese 00:15:28.179 --> 00:15:31.460 and Indian. So when I look at this, it's irritating 00:15:31.460 --> 00:15:34.620 that the state college systems were set up to 00:15:34.620 --> 00:15:37.799 make college affordable without having to travel. 00:15:38.169 --> 00:15:41.049 far away to get a decent education. You know, 00:15:41.149 --> 00:15:43.250 what I like to call the educational industrial 00:15:43.250 --> 00:15:45.990 complex. These colleges have become businesses. 00:15:46.149 --> 00:15:48.409 When your kids go to college, even in -state 00:15:48.409 --> 00:15:50.370 tuition for some of these places can be pretty 00:15:50.370 --> 00:15:52.029 astronomical depending on where you're living, 00:15:52.110 --> 00:15:54.690 unless you somehow get a grant or get a scholarship. 00:15:54.889 --> 00:15:57.269 If you look at in -state tuition versus out -of 00:15:57.269 --> 00:15:59.309 -state tuition, out -of -state tuition can be 00:15:59.309 --> 00:16:02.049 roughly twice, if not greater in terms of what 00:16:02.049 --> 00:16:05.029 these kids are paying. So these H1V visa kids 00:16:05.029 --> 00:16:07.009 come in from different countries. Typically what 00:16:07.009 --> 00:16:08.889 happens is China, India, or whatever country 00:16:08.889 --> 00:16:11.110 they're coming from, they sponsor these kids 00:16:11.110 --> 00:16:14.029 and pay for them to go to college here. And that 00:16:14.029 --> 00:16:16.789 we compared to the in -state out -of -state to 00:16:16.789 --> 00:16:20.750 someone who is on the H1B visa. The H1B visa 00:16:20.750 --> 00:16:23.129 costs significantly more than a kid going to 00:16:23.129 --> 00:16:24.990 college from within the state or even out of 00:16:24.990 --> 00:16:27.110 the state for that matter. So for these colleges, 00:16:27.169 --> 00:16:29.830 they have an incentive to take on the kid with 00:16:29.830 --> 00:16:32.750 the visa because they can charge tens of thousands 00:16:32.750 --> 00:16:35.539 of dollars more per year. And not only does this 00:16:35.539 --> 00:16:37.759 keep another, I mean, there's only a finite amount 00:16:37.759 --> 00:16:41.519 of spots in a college education system. So for 00:16:41.519 --> 00:16:44.259 every one that you bring in, you're leaving the 00:16:44.259 --> 00:16:46.659 kid stranded who wants to go to school within 00:16:46.659 --> 00:16:49.399 the U S probably within the state. And that spot 00:16:49.399 --> 00:16:51.379 is taking up from a kid from a different country. 00:16:51.799 --> 00:16:53.799 So I don't know how that puts America first. 00:16:53.919 --> 00:16:57.320 I don't know how that makes America better. I 00:16:57.320 --> 00:16:59.860 just don't know why we're not prioritizing, especially 00:16:59.860 --> 00:17:03.059 our youth in making college affordable without. 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:06.740 putting kids in to hundreds of thousands of dollars 00:17:06.740 --> 00:17:09.079 in debt. And that's just to get a bachelor's 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:11.640 degree. That's not to mention a master's or a 00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:14.960 doctorate. So again, these college institutions 00:17:14.960 --> 00:17:18.460 need to get out of this business model and make 00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:21.539 college affordable. I don't know why someone 00:17:21.539 --> 00:17:24.589 has to go into significant debt. in order to 00:17:24.589 --> 00:17:27.349 get just an average education. The kind of scary 00:17:27.349 --> 00:17:30.970 thing is with the advent of AI, the GDP growth 00:17:30.970 --> 00:17:34.210 for the past year is not that significant. It's 00:17:34.210 --> 00:17:36.569 slowly going down. So in regards of, so we're 00:17:36.569 --> 00:17:38.730 just going to talk about the US GDP. So in the 00:17:38.730 --> 00:17:41.809 first quarter of 2025, it was around 0 .6%. So 00:17:41.809 --> 00:17:44.650 that's a pretty small number. In Q2, it was 3 00:17:44.650 --> 00:17:48.410 .8%. Again, not beating the brakes off of it. 00:17:48.670 --> 00:17:51.109 That's not terrible, but not where we want to 00:17:51.109 --> 00:17:55.579 be. As of November, 17th 2025, they're estimating 00:17:55.579 --> 00:18:00.759 a 4 .1 % GDP growth for quarter three. But the 00:18:00.759 --> 00:18:03.200 consensus forecast for the full year of 2025 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:05.759 once adjusted, one of these numbers initially 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:07.299 come out that they're, I don't think they're 00:18:07.299 --> 00:18:09.279 very accurate, but they're predicting around 00:18:09.279 --> 00:18:13.079 for the year of 2025, a net growth of 1 .7 to 00:18:13.079 --> 00:18:16.980 1 .8%. So that is not It's not super good, but 00:18:16.980 --> 00:18:20.279 the scary thing is that most of this GDP growth 00:18:20.279 --> 00:18:23.420 is coming from the investment in AI. So without 00:18:23.420 --> 00:18:26.720 that, there would be negative GDP growth for 00:18:26.720 --> 00:18:29.539 the country. So the GDP is contracting. So the 00:18:29.539 --> 00:18:32.299 GDP growth attributed to AI varies all over the 00:18:32.299 --> 00:18:34.900 place, but typically it lands around 0 .8 to 00:18:34.900 --> 00:18:37.359 1 5 % percentage point. So if you look at the 00:18:37.359 --> 00:18:40.720 annualized GDP of 2025 for the U S it's right 00:18:40.720 --> 00:18:42.690 around that number. So it would either be flat 00:18:42.690 --> 00:18:45.829 or negative. So in 2024, AI Capex contributed 00:18:45.829 --> 00:18:49.630 roughly 30 to 40 % of total real GDP growth. 00:18:49.849 --> 00:18:53.509 In 2025, they're predicting that anywhere from 00:18:53.509 --> 00:18:56.990 50 on the low side to 90 % on the high side is 00:18:56.990 --> 00:19:00.369 the AI contribution to the nation's GDP growth. 00:19:00.589 --> 00:19:02.950 And on top of that, almost 100 % of this impact 00:19:02.950 --> 00:19:07.390 is front loaded from Amazon, Microsoft. Google, 00:19:07.650 --> 00:19:11.390 Meta, Apple, NVIDIA supply chain. Actual productivity 00:19:11.390 --> 00:19:14.490 efficiency gains from deploying AI are still 00:19:14.490 --> 00:19:17.210 negligible in the official numbers. Economists 00:19:17.210 --> 00:19:20.369 like Goldman Sachs and McKinsey expect to start 00:19:20.369 --> 00:19:23.970 to see these show up meaningfully not until 2027. 00:19:24.150 --> 00:19:25.970 And that's assuming that there's not an AI bubble, 00:19:26.369 --> 00:19:28.490 which we're going to talk about next. But before 00:19:28.490 --> 00:19:30.910 that, I just want to belabor the point. So right 00:19:30.910 --> 00:19:33.839 now, the US economy is being completely propped 00:19:33.839 --> 00:19:36.579 up by the AI investment boom. I just want to 00:19:36.579 --> 00:19:38.680 touch on that briefly. We've talked about in 00:19:38.680 --> 00:19:42.099 some of our episodes. So, you know, not only 00:19:42.099 --> 00:19:46.099 is this AI investment propping up GDP, it's actually 00:19:46.099 --> 00:19:48.279 squeezing out the middle and lower classes. When 00:19:48.279 --> 00:19:51.440 these server farms are built, they take an incredible 00:19:51.440 --> 00:19:54.140 amount of energy. They take an incredible amount 00:19:54.140 --> 00:19:56.640 of infrastructure, which a lot of these are being 00:19:56.640 --> 00:19:59.519 offset by taxpayer dollars. When a big company 00:19:59.519 --> 00:20:02.130 comes into the city, They typically get pretty 00:20:02.130 --> 00:20:04.289 significant tax breaks. What's that? What that 00:20:04.289 --> 00:20:06.990 means is they're paying these companies to build 00:20:06.990 --> 00:20:09.670 their investment, which means that you are not 00:20:09.670 --> 00:20:11.569 only that your energy prices are going to go 00:20:11.569 --> 00:20:14.569 up. Your water prices are going to go up in 99 00:20:14.569 --> 00:20:16.730 out of a hundred cases. Your infrastructure is 00:20:16.730 --> 00:20:20.569 not built to listen that sort of load on the 00:20:20.569 --> 00:20:24.660 system. So again, another way. for the consumer 00:20:24.660 --> 00:20:28.519 or for the taxpayer to essentially provide corporate 00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:31.039 welfare in order for these companies to build 00:20:31.039 --> 00:20:33.279 their investments. And so the other scary thing, 00:20:33.339 --> 00:20:35.279 we're gonna go back to this potential AI bubble. 00:20:35.819 --> 00:20:38.220 So let's just say this AI bubble burst, and I 00:20:38.220 --> 00:20:40.640 think it's starting to show some cracks as to 00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:42.819 that it might happen here in the next six to 00:20:42.819 --> 00:20:45.579 18 months. So let's say Nvidia comes out, and 00:20:45.579 --> 00:20:48.299 this is just a theoretical situation. Let's say 00:20:48.299 --> 00:20:50.779 they have a disappointment. earnings call, they 00:20:50.779 --> 00:20:53.220 would end up slashing anywhere between 50 to 00:20:53.220 --> 00:20:56.339 80 % of their spending and the macro fallout 00:20:56.339 --> 00:20:58.380 would be sharp. It would be very concentrated 00:20:58.380 --> 00:21:01.119 and very painful. Even though the AI economy 00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:03.240 is still a relatively small part of the whole 00:21:03.240 --> 00:21:07.539 GP, a direct hit of 1 .5 to 3 percentage point 00:21:07.539 --> 00:21:10.039 in the first year could happen essentially overnight. 00:21:10.339 --> 00:21:13.019 AI related fixed investments, like I said, currently 00:21:13.019 --> 00:21:17.880 adding one to 1 .5 % to the GDP accounts for 00:21:17.880 --> 00:21:21.259 roughly 50 to 90 % of the growth in 2025. So 00:21:21.259 --> 00:21:23.359 let's just flip that contribution to negative 00:21:23.359 --> 00:21:28.079 on the real US GDP. And that goes from 1 .5 to 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:31.000 0 .5 or worse, almost in an instant. That would 00:21:31.000 --> 00:21:34.339 be a huge sector bloodbath. And the video alone 00:21:34.339 --> 00:21:38.180 is 6 to 7 % of the entire S &P 500. A realistic 00:21:38.180 --> 00:21:41.839 70 to 80 % drawback, which translates to 15 to 00:21:41.839 --> 00:21:45.019 20 trillion, and valuation drags the NASDAQ down 00:21:45.019 --> 00:21:49.799 30 to 45%. The S &P is hit with a 25 to 35 % 00:21:49.799 --> 00:21:53.640 loss. And 401ks and pension funds will get obliterated 00:21:53.640 --> 00:21:57.039 overnight. So again, this is a complex theoretical 00:21:57.039 --> 00:22:00.759 problem, but this would cause a massive recession. 00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:03.180 Layoffs would essentially hit within the first 00:22:03.180 --> 00:22:06.500 week. You would lose 200 to 500 ,000 high skilled 00:22:06.500 --> 00:22:09.579 tech jobs and construction jobs overnight because 00:22:09.579 --> 00:22:11.619 construction is a big part in building these 00:22:11.619 --> 00:22:14.240 AI data centers and then to affect another one 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:16.819 to 2 million workers from suppliers, real estate 00:22:16.819 --> 00:22:19.279 services, et cetera. With recent college grads 00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:22.000 already at almost a six to 7 % unemployment rate, 00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:24.759 they would get absolutely crushed and the entire 00:22:24.759 --> 00:22:27.980 AI fallout would just absorb all the smart kids. 00:22:28.250 --> 00:22:30.829 And overnight, again, they would lose their jobs. 00:22:31.130 --> 00:22:34.349 So if that bubble burst in 26 or 27, the kind 00:22:34.349 --> 00:22:37.130 of peak to trough, you're looking at a negative 00:22:37.130 --> 00:22:41.470 3 % to negative 6 % GDP growth, or I guess shrink. 00:22:41.589 --> 00:22:45.430 And that would be worse than the dot com bubble. 00:22:45.769 --> 00:22:48.089 Theoretically, unemployment would peak at 9%. 00:22:48.089 --> 00:22:50.049 I don't even know what that number would translate 00:22:50.049 --> 00:22:52.309 into people that are not participating in the 00:22:52.309 --> 00:22:54.109 labor market, but I'm guessing it would add millions 00:22:54.109 --> 00:22:57.049 on top of that. And finding a job would not. 00:22:57.119 --> 00:22:59.920 be an easy thing to do. Not that it is now. I 00:22:59.920 --> 00:23:01.700 feel sorry for anyone that's going through those 00:23:01.700 --> 00:23:03.359 struggles. I guess the only thing we really have 00:23:03.359 --> 00:23:06.579 going for is it would not be another 2008 type 00:23:06.579 --> 00:23:09.980 crash where the banking system was so leveraged 00:23:09.980 --> 00:23:13.490 that banks started to fail. Right now, the housing 00:23:13.490 --> 00:23:15.349 market doesn't seem to be in desperate shape. 00:23:15.490 --> 00:23:17.009 It's getting worse, but it's still overall in 00:23:17.009 --> 00:23:19.789 good shape. So, it would not be as brutal as 00:23:19.789 --> 00:23:21.990 the dot -com bust, but it would just be faster 00:23:21.990 --> 00:23:23.750 and more concentrated. It would hurt just as 00:23:23.750 --> 00:23:26.250 bad. A lot of people think that the economy is 00:23:26.250 --> 00:23:28.529 recession -proof because of AI, but I think that's 00:23:28.529 --> 00:23:31.640 a pipe dream and people... inflating their egos 00:23:31.640 --> 00:23:33.940 and their worth and trying to make that statement. 00:23:34.180 --> 00:23:36.619 So all in all, I think with everything that's 00:23:36.619 --> 00:23:38.259 coming around the corner and some of these articles 00:23:38.259 --> 00:23:41.880 that we're seeing, I think a recession is a real 00:23:41.880 --> 00:23:44.259 possibility in your future. And we just got to 00:23:44.259 --> 00:23:47.799 prepare, spend wisely, pray, get your finances 00:23:47.799 --> 00:23:50.680 in order, and try to find a way to hedge and 00:23:50.680 --> 00:23:53.200 mitigate your risk. As I always like to say, 00:23:53.759 --> 00:23:56.299 we love you, Jesus love you. And I hope you guys 00:23:56.299 --> 00:23:58.220 have a great day. If you have any questions, 00:23:58.599 --> 00:24:01.099 comments, be sure to like and subscribe and email 00:24:01.099 --> 00:24:03.920 us at zerosignaltruth at gmail .com. I hope you 00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:04.579 all have a great day.