WEBVTT

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This is the Litterbox, a Detroit Lions podcast

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with your hosts, Chad West and Bill Patterson.

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Welcome to the Detroit Lions Litterbox. Thank

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you all for listening. I'm your host Billy P

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with my co -host Chet West. And Chet, the Lions

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have an exciting Sunday night tilt with Mr. PFF

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Chris Collinsworth announcing tonight in Philadelphia

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from Lincoln Financial Field. Your favorite guy,

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Chris Collinsworth. God, he drives me crazy.

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He's not as bad as Jonathan Vilma, but he's close.

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Hey, Mike, first question to you is... Do you

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think that Jalen Hurts, the Eagles' esteemed

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quarterback, can beat the Detroit Lions with

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his arm, not just his legs? Well, Jalen, if you

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had asked me this question in the first couple

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of weeks of the season, I would say possibly

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not. But he has been on the come up lately. In

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his last four games, he has a 127 .25 passer

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rating. He's second in the NFL. Now granted,

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that included a game against the Vikings where

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he had a perfect passer rating. and torch them

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but he has no turnovers first in the nfl and

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12 tds so he is he is on the rise as a passer

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right now and he's going to go up against a lion's

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defensive backfield that is the legion of whom

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exactly we don't know who we're going to get

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back there this week it's could be real rough

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aj brown the petulant off times eccentric aj

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brown might have a get well week here. He might

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have a get healthy week for his stat lines. You

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know, he had an interesting week, did AJ Brown.

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He has been going back and forth between complaining

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about not getting the rock enough and the owner

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of the Philadelphia Eagles, Jeffrey Lurie, had

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to have a sit down powwow with one AJ Brown to

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kind of clear the air on all this. It is never

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good when your boss's boss's boss has to sit

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you down because you're being such a distraction

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on a Super Bowl winning team. That's never good

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in any organization. No, no, no. So your answer

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is that they need to feed Devontae Smith, AJ

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Brown and others. I do not trust our defense

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enough to be able to handle premium players in

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this league. I think they can handle everything

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below the 50 % line, but anything in the top

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half. we struggle with and anything in the top

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quarter has the ability to just burn us all day.

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I don't think this defense is there yet. I'm

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not saying it's on Shepard. We got a lot of injuries.

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We'll leave it at that. Okay. Fair enough. And

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I would put Devontae Smith, as I think you would,

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and A .J. Brown above that 50 % Mendoza line.

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Even with the maligned season for Brown. Yeah.

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And you had a question for me. I do. Yeah. So

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I'm a little curious here, just based on some

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stats and who they have in their backfield. Why

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can't the Eagles run the ball as well this year?

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Yeah, that's been a good question. I did a little

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digging and I know you did some digging on this

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too. So for our listeners, Here's the thing,

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Saquon Barkley had an all pro all world season

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last year. He ran for over 2 ,000 yards. He was

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well above five yards a carry. This year he's

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below four yards a carry. So I did some digging

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on this. And do you know going all the way back

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to the early to mid 1970s, every running back

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that has had a 2 ,000 yard season has fallen

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off a cliff the season following. I don't think

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you can have 300 plus carries. uh plus you know

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all the receptions that Saquon had and others

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and not it's just too difficult to sustain that

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level of excellence for our lions listeners and

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lions fans Barry Sanders had one 2 000 yard season

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it was his second to last season and the next

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season he had a career tying low yards per carry

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average 4 .3 and then he retired. And so the

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only running back in NFL history that hasn't

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fallen off a cliff after a 2 ,000 yard season

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was one OJ Simpson in the 1970s. That's a while

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back. But everybody else, Eric Dickerson, Jamal

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Lewis, Adrian Peterson, all really, really struggled

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the year following and had at least a yard per

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carry less. A 10 -yard season beats a guy up

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too. I mean, that's the factor right there. You

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know, it was really interesting. Priest Holmes

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said this one time, just imagine getting not

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only into 300 car crashes in a year. Just imagine

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getting knocked down by a 250 pound man and then

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having to just get yourself up off the floor.

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I mean, doing that 30 times a Sunday would be

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tough enough on artificial carpet or thinly cut

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grass. So here's the thing. Also, the Eagles

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are dealing with some offensive line issues,

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some injuries. They're not complaining. But outside

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of their all -pro Lane Johnson, They're not really

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seen above for their average line play going

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forward And so I think those are kind of the

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reasons well not kind of those are the reasons

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that the Lions should be Optimistic facing this

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Eagles running attack or lack thereof So I think

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the Eagles are gonna have to beat the Lions through

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the air if they want to today Let me get into

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they can yeah, let's get into the injury part

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check. Well hang on I want to throw something

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at you. This will be fun little twist in the

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show. Yeah So the Lions run defense. There is

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a certain player along the defensive line, you

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may know who this is, this may seem obvious to

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you, that when he is in and playing, the Lions

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defense, over the course of 105 run plays when

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this player is on the field, is first in yards

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per rush, first in offensive run success rate,

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third in explosive run rate, and first in run

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stuff rate. That sounds like a dominant run defense

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right there, if I do say so myself. Without this

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player on the field, 106 run plays, so almost

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even on the plays. 4 .7 yards per rush, they

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are 23rd without this player on the field. Without

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this player on the field, there's a 42 .5 % offensive

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run success rate, they rank 25th. Without this

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player on the field, 5 .7 explosive run rate

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tied for sixth and 8 .9 % run stuff rate. They

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are the worst run stuff team in the NFL without

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this player on the field. Who is this player,

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Bill? I'm gonna go Hutch. No. Lee McNeil? The

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rookie, Tyleek Williams. You've got to be kidding

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me. Al Karsten, the football guy Al, on Twitter

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posted this this past week too. I would say some

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shock. From folks they were not basically ends

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with the Lions are arguably the NFL's best -run

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defense When first -round rookie Tyler Williams

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is on the field Okay, so suck it Chris Collins

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worth in PFF. I don't know what the other anomalies

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are when he's on the field I don't know if it's

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a strategy thing I don't I just know that we

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are one of the best -run defenses when he's on

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and one of the worst when he's off Okay, don't

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see a lot of the benefit from a defensive lineman

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against the run, unless they're stuffing it by

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themselves, right? Like a Lee McNeil type move.

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This tells me that he's not only occupying his

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gap, but he's also at least occupying his man

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and demanding a double team. He may be a better

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asset than we thought. in this past draft. Statistics

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don't lie in this. And Chet, really good work

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on your part. And that is fascinating. I thought

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it was a fascinating tip. And I am going to have

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all eyes on him today because I think he could

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be one of the keys to the game. OK. And when

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the Lions pull off this surprise victory, he's

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going to get a game ball. All right. All right.

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Give us the injury report, Bill. Hurt us. Hurt

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us. Grab a blanket and a pillow, maybe a fresh

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beverage because this is gonna take a while.

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If the Lions don't win this game, this is gonna

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be the key. Here we go. Tarion Arnold is concussed.

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He is out and did not practice at all this week.

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Okay. Marcus Davenport, surprise, surprise, tried

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to practice, was limited, and is out this week.

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Miles Frazier, no shade thrown his way. He's

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working his way back from a fairly gruesome injury

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that happened preseason. He is out but the good

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news is that he is practicing good Kirby Joseph.

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The knee is not good He is out for the fourth

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week. That is a brutal bloke and that is two

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starters He and Arnold and then we have a third

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starter that is a key contributor Sam Laporta.

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So fantasy owners he is out his back is all sorts

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of bad I are he's on the IR. He'll be out for

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four weeks And we did get a vote of confidence

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from MCDC talking up Brock Wright, but the Lions

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were active this week searching high and low

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for backup tight ends. Well, not to mention Brock

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Wright's dinged, too. I think he's on your injury

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report somewhere. He'll play, I think, but he's

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dinged. He's questionable. Let's keep on. All

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right. These are the other guys that are out

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for the game. Josh Paschal, DJ Reed, and Malcolm

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Rodriguez. All right. Now let's go to the questionables.

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And these are people that practiced, dinged up,

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practiced. OK. Here we go. No surprise, Taylor

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Decker is still dealing with the shoulder. Your

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guy, Amique Robertson, is still dealing with

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a hamstring and he is questionable. The captain

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of the Legion of whom? Yes, Jacob Saylors. Not

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really a major contributor, except on kick returns.

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He is also questionable. Penesul, that ankle

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is still bothering him. He was very limited this

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week. A matter of fact, he only practiced one

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day. Isaac... Koleslaw is questionable. Sion

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Vake is questionable. And the aforementioned

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Brock Wright is questionable. The only good news

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we have is Graham Glasgow and Aiden Hutchinson

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were full participants and are not questionable.

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If you may, give me your thoughts and then I

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will go to the other side of the ball and give

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you the Eagles. My thoughts are, we see this

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week in and week out now. And I made the comment

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last week, you know, in the NFL, you gotta play,

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all right? You gotta play, you're... You're going

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to have an injury report. You're going to have

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guys out. You got to figure out who the next

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guy is. The next man up concept becomes a little

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more difficult to grasp as we get down to the

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third and fourth man in that next man up. That's

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when things get difficult and that's where we

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are on this team in a couple areas. So I have

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a sneaky suspicion that Mr. Hertz passer rating

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is going to stay elevated this week and he's

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going to be able to throw on us at will. I would

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say after what I just shared with you and the

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listeners. You are a hundred percent correct

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on that and I would be stunned if it didn't happen

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unless for some reason the pass rush gets home

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and let me go through the Eagles injury report

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and maybe we can ascertain Okay, some different

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opinions the long snapper is dealing with a finger

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injury. His name is Cal or a dominist or Dom

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a dominist And that's not good. You need your

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fingers functioning to be a long snapper. Jacorian

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Bennett, one of their legion of whom cornerbacks,

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is dealing with a pectoral issue. A backup receiver,

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Darius Cooper, is dealing with a shoulder. Here's

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where it gets interesting, Chet. And this is

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the key to the game. Landon Dickinson, one of

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their starting guards, is dealing with a quad

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injury. Lane Johnson, their all -world offensive

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tackle, ankle. Cam Juergens, their center, dealing

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with a knee. Their other guard, Willie Lampkin,

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is dealing with a knee and an ankle. And then

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last up, or excuse me, I've got two more, Nolan

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Smith, one of the really stud linebackers, tricep

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injury. And then Tyler Steen, their offensive

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tackles, dealing with an oblique. So that is

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four starting offensive linemen that are dinged

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up. They seem pretty much about the same as the

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Lions. offensive line in that regard. The difference

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is, Chet, every one of these gentlemen for the

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Eagles was full participants, full practices

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all week. The only guy that's questionable for

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the game would be that of Willie Lampkin, the

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guard. So I would say advantage Eagles from a

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health standpoint. Your thoughts? I would say

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advantage Eagles from a health standpoint. They

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don't quite have the dings we do. I think if

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the Lions want to play this thing, a certain

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way, it's keep the Eagles offense off the field.

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That's all there is to it. This could be a game

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where the Lions offense has to be very, very

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balanced and burn some clock in order to keep

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themselves in this game. They can stay in this

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game to the fourth quarter. They got a good shot.

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But if they get blown out early, it's Sayonara.

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If they go down two scores, whether that's 10

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or 14, this thing's over. And why don't we talk

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a little bit about fantasy then on that? Do you

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have any picks to click? Yes. Dononta Smith,

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AJ Brown should light it up today. I think their

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wide receivers are gonna do enough damage to

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us early and they will be able to lean on a run

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game to some degree to burn clock from there

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and get up two scores and just make life miserable

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for us. I don't know if, I don't, their strategy

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will be to keep our offense off the field, right?

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So we'll see what happens here. This is an offense

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against offense game. The defenses are gonna

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be, you know, they got some great players on

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that side of the ball, but. They've got great

00:13:41.110 --> 00:13:42.850
players all over the field. We have an incredible

00:13:42.850 --> 00:13:45.549
offense. So we'll see what happens. We'll see

00:13:45.549 --> 00:13:47.509
how the injuries in the line affect us. We'll

00:13:47.509 --> 00:13:49.889
see how the loss of, you know, Laporta affects

00:13:49.889 --> 00:13:53.629
our offense. But I think our main guys are still

00:13:53.629 --> 00:13:57.129
going to click in Amon Ra and Gibbs. I still

00:13:57.129 --> 00:13:59.669
keep them in fantasy. Obviously, you're plugging

00:13:59.669 --> 00:14:01.970
them in every week. Jared Goff could have a pretty

00:14:01.970 --> 00:14:04.590
good game statistically. We'll see there. What

00:14:04.590 --> 00:14:07.289
about Janlin Hertz and David Montgomery? Any

00:14:07.289 --> 00:14:11.139
thoughts? Hmm. Monti's a tough one this year.

00:14:11.519 --> 00:14:14.360
He just doesn't get the reps. He just doesn't

00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:17.179
get the opportunities. When he gets them, he

00:14:17.179 --> 00:14:19.799
seems to do okay with them, but he doesn't seem

00:14:19.799 --> 00:14:22.019
to be involved in the game plan as much as Gibbs

00:14:22.019 --> 00:14:24.559
has been. It's almost like, you know, you see

00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:26.500
a little more Jameson Williams this year, and

00:14:26.500 --> 00:14:28.940
you see a little less David Montgomery. They're

00:14:28.940 --> 00:14:31.559
using different weapons in different ways. But,

00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:34.700
but, now that MCDC is calling this game again,

00:14:34.860 --> 00:14:37.360
the offense again, Maybe we will see more Monte.

00:14:37.659 --> 00:14:39.600
We saw a little more Monte last week. Maybe we'll

00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:42.440
see more Monte this week. It's kind of sometimes

00:14:42.440 --> 00:14:43.799
one of those things where is it a Monte game

00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:47.000
or is it not a Monte game? So and Hertz, Hertz

00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:48.519
will be great. I mean, if he's your quarterback,

00:14:48.580 --> 00:14:50.440
plug him in. He's going to have points. So I

00:14:50.440 --> 00:14:52.620
did some, you know, and doing pre -show research

00:14:52.620 --> 00:14:57.019
in quite a few of the pundits or experts suggested

00:14:57.019 --> 00:15:00.059
that this could be the Montgomery come out of

00:15:00.059 --> 00:15:03.549
the shell game. Yeah. I seem to lean with you.

00:15:03.710 --> 00:15:08.110
I just Gibbs is so dynamic and he offers so much

00:15:08.110 --> 00:15:10.330
I mean really the only thing that he wasn't good

00:15:10.330 --> 00:15:13.289
at was picking up those Obvious splits is in

00:15:13.289 --> 00:15:15.450
the Vikings game. Sure. I mean that's more on

00:15:15.450 --> 00:15:17.929
the play calling than it was anything else I

00:15:17.929 --> 00:15:20.289
mean the Eagles are gonna come after us. It could

00:15:20.289 --> 00:15:22.309
be a long day, too We'll see what kind of pass

00:15:22.309 --> 00:15:25.529
rush we get. Yeah. All right Yeah, let's talk

00:15:25.529 --> 00:15:28.649
a little bit about Vegas. Yep And the line opened

00:15:28.649 --> 00:15:30.909
at one and a half favoring the Eagles. It is

00:15:30.909 --> 00:15:33.690
now at two and a half and the over under also

00:15:33.690 --> 00:15:36.669
dropped a point. So it opened at 47 and a half.

00:15:36.730 --> 00:15:39.809
Now it's 46 and a half. I am going to go over

00:15:39.809 --> 00:15:43.190
on this. I don't like the point spread to what

00:15:43.190 --> 00:15:46.529
we alluded to earlier. I think the Lions either

00:15:46.529 --> 00:15:49.529
lose this thing big, meaning 14 to 20 points.

00:15:49.730 --> 00:15:51.309
If I had to take a side of the spread, I'm taking

00:15:51.309 --> 00:15:53.110
the Eagles at home. That's all there is to it.

00:15:54.559 --> 00:15:57.259
Think yeah, I think I'm gonna do that. Actually,

00:15:57.480 --> 00:15:59.799
that's the Eagles at home getting given the two

00:15:59.799 --> 00:16:01.879
and a half I'm a hundred percent taking the Eagles.

00:16:01.960 --> 00:16:04.740
I'm taking the over forty six. Okay, okay So

00:16:04.740 --> 00:16:07.120
you got the over and I got the spread. All right

00:16:07.120 --> 00:16:09.700
as we wrap up here Do you want to give your prediction

00:16:09.700 --> 00:16:12.559
first or would you like me to? I'll give mine

00:16:12.559 --> 00:16:14.379
because it's on the tip of my tongue here I think

00:16:14.379 --> 00:16:16.559
this is gonna be a thirty five seventeen Eagles

00:16:16.559 --> 00:16:18.940
win. I think we're gonna come out of this game

00:16:18.940 --> 00:16:23.360
again with questions MCDC is calling the offense.

00:16:23.360 --> 00:16:26.500
I don't go as far as to say, hey, the Lions can't

00:16:26.500 --> 00:16:28.259
make a Super Bowl if they don't win this game.

00:16:29.019 --> 00:16:31.299
They're going to play some really good teams

00:16:31.299 --> 00:16:33.580
this season. They're going to be prepared if

00:16:33.580 --> 00:16:35.399
they get to the playoffs at this point. It's

00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:37.320
not a given. They're going to be prepared for

00:16:37.320 --> 00:16:39.559
the postseason when they get there to play whomever

00:16:39.559 --> 00:16:40.879
they're going to play because they're going to

00:16:40.879 --> 00:16:42.940
see most of these teams throughout the season

00:16:42.940 --> 00:16:46.139
this year. So I just don't think on the road

00:16:46.139 --> 00:16:48.220
in the current predicament they're in injury

00:16:48.220 --> 00:16:50.019
wise that they're going to be able to pull out

00:16:50.019 --> 00:16:52.139
a win here. But you never know. They're a competitive

00:16:52.139 --> 00:16:58.080
team. I am gonna go Lions 27 -23, and here's

00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:01.720
why. With a shocker. Okay. I think that we are

00:17:01.720 --> 00:17:03.960
gonna see the Montgomery game. I think we are

00:17:03.960 --> 00:17:07.539
gonna see a healthy dose of Sonic and Knuckles

00:17:07.539 --> 00:17:10.119
today, both Gibbs and Montgomery. I think the

00:17:10.119 --> 00:17:11.980
Lions are going to play keep away. We talked

00:17:11.980 --> 00:17:14.599
about time of possession being probably the key

00:17:14.599 --> 00:17:16.980
thing. And I think the difference in this game

00:17:16.980 --> 00:17:20.059
chat is in the red zone, the Lions score touchdowns

00:17:20.059 --> 00:17:23.400
and the Lions hold the Eagles to field goals

00:17:23.400 --> 00:17:26.960
outside of big plays to the aforementioned Devontae

00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:29.039
Smith and AJ Brown. I'm going to say this. Lions

00:17:29.039 --> 00:17:31.200
can pull this game out. Sky's the limit for this

00:17:31.200 --> 00:17:34.339
season. Sky's the limit. They're a wounded animal

00:17:34.339 --> 00:17:39.559
and This is the last big hurdle before they go

00:17:39.559 --> 00:17:43.539
home That is what we have Thank you for listening

00:17:43.539 --> 00:17:46.980
to the Detroit Lions litter box. Go Lions the

00:17:46.980 --> 00:17:47.259
Lions