This is the Litterbox, a Detroit Lions podcast
with your hosts, Chad West and Bill Patterson.
Welcome to the Detroit Lions Litterbox. Thank
you all for listening. I'm your host Billy P
with my co -host Chet West. And Chet, the Lions
have an exciting Sunday night tilt with Mr. PFF
Chris Collinsworth announcing tonight in Philadelphia
from Lincoln Financial Field. Your favorite guy,
Chris Collinsworth. God, he drives me crazy.
He's not as bad as Jonathan Vilma, but he's close.
Hey, Mike, first question to you is... Do you
think that Jalen Hurts, the Eagles' esteemed
quarterback, can beat the Detroit Lions with
his arm, not just his legs? Well, Jalen, if you
had asked me this question in the first couple
of weeks of the season, I would say possibly
not. But he has been on the come up lately. In
his last four games, he has a 127 .25 passer
rating. He's second in the NFL. Now granted,
that included a game against the Vikings where
he had a perfect passer rating. and torch them
but he has no turnovers first in the nfl and
12 tds so he is he is on the rise as a passer
right now and he's going to go up against a lion's
defensive backfield that is the legion of whom
exactly we don't know who we're going to get
back there this week it's could be real rough
aj brown the petulant off times eccentric aj
brown might have a get well week here. He might
have a get healthy week for his stat lines. You
know, he had an interesting week, did AJ Brown.
He has been going back and forth between complaining
about not getting the rock enough and the owner
of the Philadelphia Eagles, Jeffrey Lurie, had
to have a sit down powwow with one AJ Brown to
kind of clear the air on all this. It is never
good when your boss's boss's boss has to sit
you down because you're being such a distraction
on a Super Bowl winning team. That's never good
in any organization. No, no, no. So your answer
is that they need to feed Devontae Smith, AJ
Brown and others. I do not trust our defense
enough to be able to handle premium players in
this league. I think they can handle everything
below the 50 % line, but anything in the top
half. we struggle with and anything in the top
quarter has the ability to just burn us all day.
I don't think this defense is there yet. I'm
not saying it's on Shepard. We got a lot of injuries.
We'll leave it at that. Okay. Fair enough. And
I would put Devontae Smith, as I think you would,
and A .J. Brown above that 50 % Mendoza line.
Even with the maligned season for Brown. Yeah.
And you had a question for me. I do. Yeah. So
I'm a little curious here, just based on some
stats and who they have in their backfield. Why
can't the Eagles run the ball as well this year?
Yeah, that's been a good question. I did a little
digging and I know you did some digging on this
too. So for our listeners, Here's the thing,
Saquon Barkley had an all pro all world season
last year. He ran for over 2 ,000 yards. He was
well above five yards a carry. This year he's
below four yards a carry. So I did some digging
on this. And do you know going all the way back
to the early to mid 1970s, every running back
that has had a 2 ,000 yard season has fallen
off a cliff the season following. I don't think
you can have 300 plus carries. uh plus you know
all the receptions that Saquon had and others
and not it's just too difficult to sustain that
level of excellence for our lions listeners and
lions fans Barry Sanders had one 2 000 yard season
it was his second to last season and the next
season he had a career tying low yards per carry
average 4 .3 and then he retired. And so the
only running back in NFL history that hasn't
fallen off a cliff after a 2 ,000 yard season
was one OJ Simpson in the 1970s. That's a while
back. But everybody else, Eric Dickerson, Jamal
Lewis, Adrian Peterson, all really, really struggled
the year following and had at least a yard per
carry less. A 10 -yard season beats a guy up
too. I mean, that's the factor right there. You
know, it was really interesting. Priest Holmes
said this one time, just imagine getting not
only into 300 car crashes in a year. Just imagine
getting knocked down by a 250 pound man and then
having to just get yourself up off the floor.
I mean, doing that 30 times a Sunday would be
tough enough on artificial carpet or thinly cut
grass. So here's the thing. Also, the Eagles
are dealing with some offensive line issues,
some injuries. They're not complaining. But outside
of their all -pro Lane Johnson, They're not really
seen above for their average line play going
forward And so I think those are kind of the
reasons well not kind of those are the reasons
that the Lions should be Optimistic facing this
Eagles running attack or lack thereof So I think
the Eagles are gonna have to beat the Lions through
the air if they want to today Let me get into
they can yeah, let's get into the injury part
check. Well hang on I want to throw something
at you. This will be fun little twist in the
show. Yeah So the Lions run defense. There is
a certain player along the defensive line, you
may know who this is, this may seem obvious to
you, that when he is in and playing, the Lions
defense, over the course of 105 run plays when
this player is on the field, is first in yards
per rush, first in offensive run success rate,
third in explosive run rate, and first in run
stuff rate. That sounds like a dominant run defense
right there, if I do say so myself. Without this
player on the field, 106 run plays, so almost
even on the plays. 4 .7 yards per rush, they
are 23rd without this player on the field. Without
this player on the field, there's a 42 .5 % offensive
run success rate, they rank 25th. Without this
player on the field, 5 .7 explosive run rate
tied for sixth and 8 .9 % run stuff rate. They
are the worst run stuff team in the NFL without
this player on the field. Who is this player,
Bill? I'm gonna go Hutch. No. Lee McNeil? The
rookie, Tyleek Williams. You've got to be kidding
me. Al Karsten, the football guy Al, on Twitter
posted this this past week too. I would say some
shock. From folks they were not basically ends
with the Lions are arguably the NFL's best -run
defense When first -round rookie Tyler Williams
is on the field Okay, so suck it Chris Collins
worth in PFF. I don't know what the other anomalies
are when he's on the field I don't know if it's
a strategy thing I don't I just know that we
are one of the best -run defenses when he's on
and one of the worst when he's off Okay, don't
see a lot of the benefit from a defensive lineman
against the run, unless they're stuffing it by
themselves, right? Like a Lee McNeil type move.
This tells me that he's not only occupying his
gap, but he's also at least occupying his man
and demanding a double team. He may be a better
asset than we thought. in this past draft. Statistics
don't lie in this. And Chet, really good work
on your part. And that is fascinating. I thought
it was a fascinating tip. And I am going to have
all eyes on him today because I think he could
be one of the keys to the game. OK. And when
the Lions pull off this surprise victory, he's
going to get a game ball. All right. All right.
Give us the injury report, Bill. Hurt us. Hurt
us. Grab a blanket and a pillow, maybe a fresh
beverage because this is gonna take a while.
If the Lions don't win this game, this is gonna
be the key. Here we go. Tarion Arnold is concussed.
He is out and did not practice at all this week.
Okay. Marcus Davenport, surprise, surprise, tried
to practice, was limited, and is out this week.
Miles Frazier, no shade thrown his way. He's
working his way back from a fairly gruesome injury
that happened preseason. He is out but the good
news is that he is practicing good Kirby Joseph.
The knee is not good He is out for the fourth
week. That is a brutal bloke and that is two
starters He and Arnold and then we have a third
starter that is a key contributor Sam Laporta.
So fantasy owners he is out his back is all sorts
of bad I are he's on the IR. He'll be out for
four weeks And we did get a vote of confidence
from MCDC talking up Brock Wright, but the Lions
were active this week searching high and low
for backup tight ends. Well, not to mention Brock
Wright's dinged, too. I think he's on your injury
report somewhere. He'll play, I think, but he's
dinged. He's questionable. Let's keep on. All
right. These are the other guys that are out
for the game. Josh Paschal, DJ Reed, and Malcolm
Rodriguez. All right. Now let's go to the questionables.
And these are people that practiced, dinged up,
practiced. OK. Here we go. No surprise, Taylor
Decker is still dealing with the shoulder. Your
guy, Amique Robertson, is still dealing with
a hamstring and he is questionable. The captain
of the Legion of whom? Yes, Jacob Saylors. Not
really a major contributor, except on kick returns.
He is also questionable. Penesul, that ankle
is still bothering him. He was very limited this
week. A matter of fact, he only practiced one
day. Isaac... Koleslaw is questionable. Sion
Vake is questionable. And the aforementioned
Brock Wright is questionable. The only good news
we have is Graham Glasgow and Aiden Hutchinson
were full participants and are not questionable.
If you may, give me your thoughts and then I
will go to the other side of the ball and give
you the Eagles. My thoughts are, we see this
week in and week out now. And I made the comment
last week, you know, in the NFL, you gotta play,
all right? You gotta play, you're... You're going
to have an injury report. You're going to have
guys out. You got to figure out who the next
guy is. The next man up concept becomes a little
more difficult to grasp as we get down to the
third and fourth man in that next man up. That's
when things get difficult and that's where we
are on this team in a couple areas. So I have
a sneaky suspicion that Mr. Hertz passer rating
is going to stay elevated this week and he's
going to be able to throw on us at will. I would
say after what I just shared with you and the
listeners. You are a hundred percent correct
on that and I would be stunned if it didn't happen
unless for some reason the pass rush gets home
and let me go through the Eagles injury report
and maybe we can ascertain Okay, some different
opinions the long snapper is dealing with a finger
injury. His name is Cal or a dominist or Dom
a dominist And that's not good. You need your
fingers functioning to be a long snapper. Jacorian
Bennett, one of their legion of whom cornerbacks,
is dealing with a pectoral issue. A backup receiver,
Darius Cooper, is dealing with a shoulder. Here's
where it gets interesting, Chet. And this is
the key to the game. Landon Dickinson, one of
their starting guards, is dealing with a quad
injury. Lane Johnson, their all -world offensive
tackle, ankle. Cam Juergens, their center, dealing
with a knee. Their other guard, Willie Lampkin,
is dealing with a knee and an ankle. And then
last up, or excuse me, I've got two more, Nolan
Smith, one of the really stud linebackers, tricep
injury. And then Tyler Steen, their offensive
tackles, dealing with an oblique. So that is
four starting offensive linemen that are dinged
up. They seem pretty much about the same as the
Lions. offensive line in that regard. The difference
is, Chet, every one of these gentlemen for the
Eagles was full participants, full practices
all week. The only guy that's questionable for
the game would be that of Willie Lampkin, the
guard. So I would say advantage Eagles from a
health standpoint. Your thoughts? I would say
advantage Eagles from a health standpoint. They
don't quite have the dings we do. I think if
the Lions want to play this thing, a certain
way, it's keep the Eagles offense off the field.
That's all there is to it. This could be a game
where the Lions offense has to be very, very
balanced and burn some clock in order to keep
themselves in this game. They can stay in this
game to the fourth quarter. They got a good shot.
But if they get blown out early, it's Sayonara.
If they go down two scores, whether that's 10
or 14, this thing's over. And why don't we talk
a little bit about fantasy then on that? Do you
have any picks to click? Yes. Dononta Smith,
AJ Brown should light it up today. I think their
wide receivers are gonna do enough damage to
us early and they will be able to lean on a run
game to some degree to burn clock from there
and get up two scores and just make life miserable
for us. I don't know if, I don't, their strategy
will be to keep our offense off the field, right?
So we'll see what happens here. This is an offense
against offense game. The defenses are gonna
be, you know, they got some great players on
that side of the ball, but. They've got great
players all over the field. We have an incredible
offense. So we'll see what happens. We'll see
how the injuries in the line affect us. We'll
see how the loss of, you know, Laporta affects
our offense. But I think our main guys are still
going to click in Amon Ra and Gibbs. I still
keep them in fantasy. Obviously, you're plugging
them in every week. Jared Goff could have a pretty
good game statistically. We'll see there. What
about Janlin Hertz and David Montgomery? Any
thoughts? Hmm. Monti's a tough one this year.
He just doesn't get the reps. He just doesn't
get the opportunities. When he gets them, he
seems to do okay with them, but he doesn't seem
to be involved in the game plan as much as Gibbs
has been. It's almost like, you know, you see
a little more Jameson Williams this year, and
you see a little less David Montgomery. They're
using different weapons in different ways. But,
but, now that MCDC is calling this game again,
the offense again, Maybe we will see more Monte.
We saw a little more Monte last week. Maybe we'll
see more Monte this week. It's kind of sometimes
one of those things where is it a Monte game
or is it not a Monte game? So and Hertz, Hertz
will be great. I mean, if he's your quarterback,
plug him in. He's going to have points. So I
did some, you know, and doing pre -show research
in quite a few of the pundits or experts suggested
that this could be the Montgomery come out of
the shell game. Yeah. I seem to lean with you.
I just Gibbs is so dynamic and he offers so much
I mean really the only thing that he wasn't good
at was picking up those Obvious splits is in
the Vikings game. Sure. I mean that's more on
the play calling than it was anything else I
mean the Eagles are gonna come after us. It could
be a long day, too We'll see what kind of pass
rush we get. Yeah. All right Yeah, let's talk
a little bit about Vegas. Yep And the line opened
at one and a half favoring the Eagles. It is
now at two and a half and the over under also
dropped a point. So it opened at 47 and a half.
Now it's 46 and a half. I am going to go over
on this. I don't like the point spread to what
we alluded to earlier. I think the Lions either
lose this thing big, meaning 14 to 20 points.
If I had to take a side of the spread, I'm taking
the Eagles at home. That's all there is to it.
Think yeah, I think I'm gonna do that. Actually,
that's the Eagles at home getting given the two
and a half I'm a hundred percent taking the Eagles.
I'm taking the over forty six. Okay, okay So
you got the over and I got the spread. All right
as we wrap up here Do you want to give your prediction
first or would you like me to? I'll give mine
because it's on the tip of my tongue here I think
this is gonna be a thirty five seventeen Eagles
win. I think we're gonna come out of this game
again with questions MCDC is calling the offense.
I don't go as far as to say, hey, the Lions can't
make a Super Bowl if they don't win this game.
They're going to play some really good teams
this season. They're going to be prepared if
they get to the playoffs at this point. It's
not a given. They're going to be prepared for
the postseason when they get there to play whomever
they're going to play because they're going to
see most of these teams throughout the season
this year. So I just don't think on the road
in the current predicament they're in injury
wise that they're going to be able to pull out
a win here. But you never know. They're a competitive
team. I am gonna go Lions 27 -23, and here's
why. With a shocker. Okay. I think that we are
gonna see the Montgomery game. I think we are
gonna see a healthy dose of Sonic and Knuckles
today, both Gibbs and Montgomery. I think the
Lions are going to play keep away. We talked
about time of possession being probably the key
thing. And I think the difference in this game
chat is in the red zone, the Lions score touchdowns
and the Lions hold the Eagles to field goals
outside of big plays to the aforementioned Devontae
Smith and AJ Brown. I'm going to say this. Lions
can pull this game out. Sky's the limit for this
season. Sky's the limit. They're a wounded animal
and This is the last big hurdle before they go
home That is what we have Thank you for listening
to the Detroit Lions litter box. Go Lions the
Lions