Imagine a world where the software on your screen
isn't just mimicking conversation, but it's actually
thinking. I mean, really contemplating a problem.
Elon Musk recently dropped a statistic that,
frankly, it just stops you in your tracks. He
believes there is a 10 % probability, one in
10, that his new model, Grok 5, will be as smart
as a human being. And just to give you a sense
of the gravity there, that single claim... was
reportedly enough to trigger an emergency strategy
meeting at OpenAI. Wow. They didn't just shrug
it off as marketing hype. They hit the accelerator.
Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today, we are
unpacking XAI, Grok 5, and this whole race to
artificial general intelligence. It feels like
everyone, there's a new model, a new claim, a
new benchmark. But looking at the source material
we have today, this one. It feels different.
It does. It feels less like a software update
and more like a philosophical shift in how we
approach intelligence. It absolutely is. And
today, we are going to map out exactly why. We
have a lot of ground to cover. OK, so what's
the plan? First, we're going to talk about Colossus,
this massive hardware scaling happening right
now in Memphis, Tennessee. Right. We'll break
down the three specific ways Grok 5 is fundamentally
different from Chat, GPT, and Gemini. We'll look
at the architecture. the six trillion parameter
structure aiming for AGI, and then we'll get
practical coding markets, image generation. And
of course, the part that always feels a bit like
science fiction, the integration with Tesla and
the optimist robots. Putting the brain inside
the body. That's the end game. So let's start
with the timeline, because in the world of Musk
companies, timelines can be. Well, let's call
them aspirational. For sure. But we have a confirmed
window now. We do. We do. MUST confirmed in November
2025 that the target release for Grok 5 is the
first quarter of 2026. So we're looking at January,
February, March. OK. And what's interesting is
that despite the history of delays with rockets
or cars, XAI seems incredibly confident about
this one. So why the confidence? Usually when
you get this close to a release of this magnitude,
you start hearing about delays, but the sources
suggest the hardware is already humming. Because
it's not just code anymore, it's physics. This
is where we have to talk about Colossus. Right,
the supercomputer. It's the name of the supercomputer,
XAI, built in Memphis. And when I say supercomputer,
I don't mean a server room with blinking lights.
I mean a facility that consumes as much electricity
as a small city. A small city, just to train
an AI. It's staggering. To get Grok 5 to that
level of intelligence, they are moving from using
100 ,000 GPUs, which is already a mind -bending
amount of compute, to trying to connect 1 million
GPUs. OK, so let's unpack that scale. I think
for most people, 1 million GPUs is just a number.
What does that actually represent in terms of
engineering? Think of a GPU like a tiny brain
or a neuron. Your home computer usually has one.
Colossus is trying to link a million of them
together to a single cohesive system. It is arguably
one of the biggest engineering projects in history.
It's like trying to wire up a synthetic neocortex.
And from what I understand, the challenge isn't
just plugging them in. It's the latency, right?
The speed of communication between them. That
is the bottleneck. It's a networking nightmare.
If you have a brain where the neurons take five
seconds to talk to each other, you don't have
intelligence. You have a disconnected mess. You
have to get these chips to talk to each other
instantly, almost at the speed of light. That's
why we have the delay until 2026. It's not about
the software learning. It's about physically
building the brain big enough to hold the thoughts.
It reminds me of that paper, The Bitter Lesson
by Rich Sutton. The idea that we keep trying
to be clever with programming, but eventually
brute force scaling, just adding more compute,
always wins. That's the bet XAI is making. They
are betting the farm on the idea that if you
build a big enough computer, intelligence just
emerges. It's not magic, it's scale. So why do
we actually need a million ships linked together?
To create an intelligence smarter than anything
previously seen. That leads us perfectly into
the software itself. Because once you build this
massive brain, what makes it different from what
we already have? If I'm sitting there with ChatGPT
open in one tab and Grok 5 in another, what's
the tangible difference? There are a few core
differentiators, but the biggest one is time.
Most AI models, like Chat, GPT, or Gemini, operate
like a library book. A library book? How so?
Well, think about it. If you pick up a book printed
in 2023, it has zero idea what happened yesterday.
Right. It's frozen. It's frozen in time. Those
models rely on training data that has a cutoff
date. Now, they are getting better at searching
Google to patch that hole, but it's often slow.
clunky, or a bit messy. I have noticed that you
ask about a news event from this morning and
it sometimes hallucinates or just says, I don't
have that information. Precisely. Grok 5 is different
because it lives inside the X platform. It has
a direct pipeline to the global conversation.
So it's reading posts in real time. Instantly.
When news breaks, an earthquake, a stock market
crash, a political scandal, people posted on
X instantly. Grok reads that. It doesn't wait
for a news article to be written and edited and
published and then indexed by Google. It sees
the raw data as it happens. That is a massive
advantage for anyone who needs to be current.
It's the difference between a historian and a
news anchor. And it's drinking from the fire
hose. It has to filter the noise, obviously,
but the signal is there before it's anywhere
else. But there's another difference that people
talk about a lot, and that's the personality,
the uncensored aspect. Root -seeking mode, yeah.
Yeah. And I have to admit, I sometimes feel this
frustration. I feel like I wrestle with other
AIs when I ask a slightly sensitive question.
You know the response. As an AI lineage model,
I cannot provide an opinion. It feels very corporate.
It feels very safe, and that is by design. OpenAI
and Google have a massive enterprise reputation
to protect. They have shareholders. They have
corporate clients. They optimize for safety.
XAI is taking a different approach. Croc 5 is
designed to be less strict. It treats the user
like an adult. So fun mode isn't just a gimmick.
No, it's a philosophy. Yeah. It allows the model
to be sarcastic, to make jokes, but more importantly,
to give answers that might be considered controversial
or sensitive without immediately shutting down.
It's trying to provide the raw truth. Or at least
the available information rather than a sanitized
version of it. So is being uncensored actually
a utility though, or is it just a gimmick? It's
essential for users wanting raw truth over corporate
safety. I can see that. If you are a researcher
or a journalist, you don't want a tool that filters
reality. You want the data, even if it's ugly.
Exactly. You want to know what the sentiment
actually is, not what the AI thinks the sentiment
should be. That makes sense. It's a tool for
deep thinking, not just, you know, drafting HR
emails. And speaking of deep thinking, we have
to talk about the Holy Grail, AGI, artificial
general intelligence. This is the heavy terminology.
Let's define it quickly. So narrow AI is good
at one thing, playing chess, recognizing faces.
AGI is good at everything. It learns like a human.
Right. And musks. 10 % probability claim is about
this specific threshold. Can't Grok 5 look at
a problem it has never seen before, no training
data on it, and just figure out the solution
using logic? And how do they plan to get there?
We talked about the chips, but what is the strategy?
The strategy is brute force scaling. Imagine
you're trying to build a library that contains
the answer to every question. You just keep adding
floors. You just keep adding floors. In AI, we
measure this in parameters. And parameters are
like the synapses in the brain, right? The connections.
Yeah, exactly. To give you a sense of scale,
GPT -4 is estimated to have around 1 .7 trillion
parameters. 1 .7 trillion. Grok 5 is expected
to have around 6 trillion parameter. Oh, that
is a massive jump. That's not just a linear increase.
That's exponential complexity. It is. And the
theory the BetX AI is making is that by making
the brain significantly bigger and feeding it
more information, intelligence will naturally
emerge. So they're not programming it to be smart.
No, they're building a structure complex enough
for smartness to happen. But does making the
model bigger actually create understanding? XAI
believes intelligence naturally emerges from
massive scale. And they are focusing heavily
on reasoning versus just autocomplete. What's
the distinction there? Most current AIs are essentially
guessing the next word in a sentence. They're
hyper -advanced autocomplete. Right. Grok 5 is
being trained to stop think, and check its logic.
If you ask it a math problem, it doesn't just
guess the answer. It works through the steps.
If you ask for code, it checks the logic of that
code before giving it to you. It's the difference
between memorizing a textbook and actually understanding
the physics. Precisely. It's simulating an internal
monologue. It's what researchers call a chain
of thought. And if they pull it off at six trillion
parameters, that internal monologue gets very
sophisticated. Okay, so we have this massive,
sarcastic, truth -seeking brain being built in
Memphis, but let's bring it down to Earth. For
the person listening who isn't trying to solve
the theory of relativity, how do I actually use
this? It comes down to a few very powerful use
cases. The first is handling large documents.
Grok 5 is going to have a massive context window,
likely around 256 ,000 tokens. Which translates
to what in the real world? book. A very thick
book. Yeah. Or a massive stack of legal contracts.
You could upload a 300 page PDF and say, find
every mention of financial risk in this contract
and tell me if any of them contradict each other.
That's huge because right now with some models
you have to chop the document up into pieces
or you hit a limit. Right. Grok 5 can hold the
whole thing in memory at once. It sees the big
picture. It understands the narrative arc of
the data. not just isolated sentences. And what
about the market research side? You mentioned
the X integration earlier. This is a game changer
for businesses. Imagine asking, what is the sentiment
on X right now regarding the Apple launch? Instead
of getting a summary of articles from yesterday,
Grok 5 scans the live posts from the last hour.
Wow. It can tell you people are complaining about
the battery life or everyone loves the new camera.
It's real time market intelligence. I can see
that being addictive for investors. You're getting
the signal before the market moves. Absolutely.
And then there's coding. If you're a developer,
Grok 5 acts like a senior engineer. Because of
that large memory, it can look at your entire
project structure, not just one script. So you
could ask it to rewrite something for speed.
Exactly. You could say, rewrite this Python script
for speed. And it understands the context of
the whole application. And finally, images. I
saw a note about Grok Imagine. Yes. The struggle
with AI images has always been text. You ask
for a picture of a shop with a sign, and the
sign usually has alien hieroglyphics on it. Yeah,
just jumbled letters. Grok 5 understands the
world better, so it can actually spell correctly
inside the image. You can ask for a futuristic
Tokyo Cafe with a neon sign that says Grok Cafe,
and it will actually spell Grok Cafe. Which sounds
simple, but is technically very difficult. It
implies the model understands what letters are.
Conceptually, yes. Not just visually. So which
user actually benefits the most from this tool?
Investors and researchers needing real -time
data and logic. Before we move to the final segment,
I want to take a brief moment to thank our partners
who make this deep dive possible. Okay, we're
back. We've covered the brain. Now I want to
talk about the body. Because Elon Musk isn't
just building a chatbot to live in your browser.
He's building a mind that can move. This is where
we connect to the bigger picture of the Musk
ecosystem. The first physical container for Grok
5 is the car. The Tesla! Yes. Right now, voice
commands in cars are... let's be honest, pretty
basic. Call mom. Navigate home. I didn't understand
that. Playing music by Cher. Exactly. It's frustrating.
With Grok 5 integrated, the car becomes a smart
companion. So what does that look like? You could
be driving through a town you've never visited
and ask, Grok, tell me a story about the history
of this town. Or find me a restaurant with a
4 .5 star rating that is open right now and actually
has parking. It turns the drive into a conversation.
But it's more than just a concierge, isn't it?
It's about the car understanding the world. It
is. But the even wilder application is Optimus,
the humanoid robot. This is the part that really
captures the imagination. We've seen the videos
of the robots folding shirts or walking around,
but they still look a bit... robotic. It's stiff,
because currently they are dumb in the cognitive
sense. They follow programming. They're executing
a script. Got it. But if you put Grok 5's brain
into Optimus, the robot can understand abstract
concepts. You could say, go to the kitchen and
make a sandwich. And the robot has to understand
what a kitchen is, what a sandwich is, where
the bread is kept. It has to understand the concept
of a knife. Not just the coordinates of a tool,
but what a knife is for. It figures that out
by thinking, using that massive training data.
It provides the common sense that robots have
always lacked. Exactly. And where does it get
that common sense? It gets it from the cars,
right? From the fleet. That's the closed loop.
This is the secret weapon XAI has. They have
millions of Teslas driving around with cameras,
recording video of physics, of human behavior,
of how the world moves. That data trains the
model. The car teaches the robot how to see.
It's incredible potential. But I have to play
the skeptic for a second. We talked about colossus
consuming the power of a small city. Yes. If
we have millions of these robots and cars all
accessing this super intelligence. The energy
demand must be astronomical. Is a massive challenge.
This is the dark side of the moon here. The more
intelligent the model, the more energy it consumes.
Colossus in Memphis is already straining the
grid. So what's the solution? Musk is betting
on solar and batteries, Tesla energy, to solve
this. But it's a race. Can we generate green
energy faster than these AI brains consume it?
So is this just software or something physically
tangible? It is the future mind for cars and
humanoid robots. It really reframes how you look
at a Tesla driving down the street. It's just
waiting for its brain upgrade. It is. It's hardware
waiting for the soul. So let's bring this all
home. We've covered a huge amount of ground.
We have these three giants in the arena now.
We do. And it's important to see where they sit.
You have OpenAI with GPT -5 coming, which is
the enterprise standard. It's safe. It's corporate.
It's reliable. The suit and tie. Exactly. Then
you have Google with Gemini. That's the ecosystem
play. It's integrated into your Docs, your Gmail,
your Android phone. It's all about convenience.
And then XAI with Grok. The truth seeker. It's
about raw power, real time access to the world
via X, and deep reasoning without the safety
wheels. Regardless of which one wins, or if they
all win in different ways, what does this mean
for us? It forces the whole industry to evolve.
Even if Grok 5 doesn't hit that 10 % chance of
being human level smart, just the attempt pushes
OpenAI and Google to be better. It accelerates
everything. So here's my challenge to you, the
listener. We are expecting this release in Q1
2026. When Grok 5 drops, don't just read the
headlines. Test it. Absolutely. Compare it. Ask
ChatGPT a question, then ask Grok the same question.
See which reasoning style fits your brain better.
Are you looking for the safe summary or the raw
data? It's going to be a fascinating year. The
car you drive and the robot you might one day
own are just waiting for this mind to wake up.
And when it does, we'll be here to talk about
it. I can't wait. Thanks for diving in with us.
We'll catch you in the next one.