WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.879 Hey, everyone, and welcome back to The Deep Dive. 00:00:01.980 --> 00:00:06.759 Today is Thursday, August 14th, 2025. We're really 00:00:06.759 --> 00:00:08.980 digging into some, well, some conflicting signals 00:00:08.980 --> 00:00:11.460 shaping the US right now, everything from the 00:00:11.460 --> 00:00:14.640 economy to some big shifts in federal power and 00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:17.300 even critical changes in immigration policy. 00:00:17.940 --> 00:00:19.839 Our goal, like always, is to cut through the 00:00:19.839 --> 00:00:21.980 noise, pull out the key insights, and help you 00:00:21.980 --> 00:00:24.320 understand the why behind the headlines, what's 00:00:24.320 --> 00:00:26.579 really impacting you. Okay, so let's jump into 00:00:26.579 --> 00:00:28.780 the economy because the data right now it shows 00:00:28.780 --> 00:00:31.059 this this real tug -of -war We just got the producer 00:00:31.059 --> 00:00:34.020 price index the PPI, you know wholesale inflation. 00:00:34.020 --> 00:00:37.079 It's surged point nine percent in July. That's 00:00:37.079 --> 00:00:39.460 The biggest jump in three years seems like tariffs 00:00:39.460 --> 00:00:41.060 are really hitting business costs. Yeah, it's 00:00:41.060 --> 00:00:43.340 a big number But then the consumer price index 00:00:43.340 --> 00:00:46.560 TPI it held steady at two point seven percent 00:00:46.560 --> 00:00:49.219 and core inflation was mostly services not goods 00:00:49.219 --> 00:00:52.179 That difference is what's pretty stark and it 00:00:52.179 --> 00:00:53.920 puts the Federal Reserve in a really difficult 00:00:53.920 --> 00:00:57.600 position Yeah, so well on one side you've got 00:00:57.600 --> 00:00:59.939 pressure coming from the White House to cut interest 00:00:59.939 --> 00:01:03.520 rates But that big PPI jump that's often a sign 00:01:03.520 --> 00:01:05.680 of things to come it signals future inflation 00:01:05.680 --> 00:01:07.939 because businesses are paying more now They'll 00:01:07.939 --> 00:01:10.159 probably pass those costs on to you the consumer 00:01:10.159 --> 00:01:12.540 down the line. It's a real tightrope for the 00:01:12.540 --> 00:01:15.980 Fed right a tightrope So how's Wall Street taking 00:01:15.980 --> 00:01:18.939 all this? this mixed picture, especially with 00:01:18.939 --> 00:01:21.239 government policies seeming to play such a direct 00:01:21.239 --> 00:01:23.280 role now. Well, Wall Street definitely reacted. 00:01:23.439 --> 00:01:25.640 That stock market rally, it sort of stalled out 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:27.680 after the hot PPI report you saw in the Dow, 00:01:27.680 --> 00:01:30.459 the NASDAQ. Yeah. And it really shows how policy 00:01:30.459 --> 00:01:33.120 hits companies directly. Look at Intel shares 00:01:33.120 --> 00:01:36.079 jumped, what, 7 .4 percent. Just on reports, 00:01:36.099 --> 00:01:39.000 the government might take a stake, but then tapestry 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:41.920 they own. This stock just plummeted nearly 16 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:45.599 percent and expected $160 million hit from tariffs. 00:01:45.939 --> 00:01:49.120 Wow. So it shows this two -tier market idea. 00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:51.099 It's not just about business fundamentals anymore. 00:01:51.439 --> 00:01:54.280 It's really sensitive to political moves So investors 00:01:54.280 --> 00:01:56.579 basically need to be political analysts now, 00:01:56.579 --> 00:01:59.719 too That's a shift and this theme, you know shifting 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:03.079 power administrative influence It's not just 00:02:03.079 --> 00:02:05.159 the economy. We're seeing it play out in government 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.960 itself testing federal versus local lines Let's 00:02:08.960 --> 00:02:11.680 talk about the DC police situation. That's right. 00:02:11.960 --> 00:02:14.879 The administration started this 30 -day federal 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:17.840 takeover of the DC police force. The justification 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:20.240 is cracking down on crime. And there are hints 00:02:20.240 --> 00:02:23.800 it might be extended. OK. It creates, well, obvious 00:02:23.800 --> 00:02:26.060 confusion in the chain of command. And it's a 00:02:26.060 --> 00:02:28.900 major test of federal versus local control. What's 00:02:28.900 --> 00:02:31.599 also interesting is the role of DC's mayor, Muriel 00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:34.159 Bowser. She's a Democrat. But she's kind of walking 00:02:34.159 --> 00:02:36.300 this fine line, working with the administration, 00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:38.860 despite opposition from her national party. Providing 00:02:38.860 --> 00:02:41.319 some bipartisan cover, essentially. Exactly. 00:02:41.419 --> 00:02:44.680 And it raises a big question. If crime can be 00:02:44.680 --> 00:02:46.580 the reason here, what does that mean for other 00:02:46.580 --> 00:02:49.439 cities? Could it erode home rule elsewhere? That's 00:02:49.439 --> 00:02:51.639 a really important point about precedent. And 00:02:51.639 --> 00:02:55.099 this idea, administrative shifts with big consequences. 00:02:55.699 --> 00:02:57.840 It's hitting immigration policy hard too, with 00:02:57.840 --> 00:03:01.539 very direct human impacts. Starting tomorrow, 00:03:01.719 --> 00:03:05.099 August 15th, USCIS is changing how it calculates 00:03:05.099 --> 00:03:07.360 kids' ages under the Child Status Protection 00:03:07.360 --> 00:03:10.520 Act, CSPA. Yes. This is critical. They're switching 00:03:10.520 --> 00:03:14.259 to using the final action dates chart. What that 00:03:14.259 --> 00:03:16.560 means, practically, because of huge green card 00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:19.259 backlogs, is that the date used to lock in a 00:03:19.259 --> 00:03:21.960 child's age might be much older than when the 00:03:21.960 --> 00:03:24.740 family actually applied. Okay. So thousands of 00:03:24.740 --> 00:03:27.080 kids, especially children of high skilled visa 00:03:27.080 --> 00:03:29.500 holders and Indian families, are disproportionately 00:03:29.500 --> 00:03:33.349 affected here. like 62 % of the employment backlog, 00:03:33.949 --> 00:03:36.430 they'll turn 21 on paper, basically. They age 00:03:36.430 --> 00:03:38.770 out. And face deportation or family separation. 00:03:39.030 --> 00:03:40.909 Exactly. Forced departure or separation. It's 00:03:40.909 --> 00:03:42.610 a stark example of what some people call shadow 00:03:42.610 --> 00:03:44.969 policy. Shadow policy. Yeah, basically changing 00:03:44.969 --> 00:03:46.750 legal immigration levels through these kinds 00:03:46.750 --> 00:03:48.909 of administrative tweaks, not through new laws 00:03:48.909 --> 00:03:51.009 passed by Congress. Is there another side to 00:03:51.009 --> 00:03:53.270 it? An argument? These are just needed adjustments. 00:03:53.689 --> 00:03:55.469 Well, some might argue it streamlines things, 00:03:55.509 --> 00:03:57.909 perhaps. But the clear outcome for many families 00:03:57.909 --> 00:04:01.039 is that fewer members qualify. It tightens legal 00:04:01.039 --> 00:04:03.560 immigration without a big public debate. And 00:04:03.560 --> 00:04:05.400 it fits with other proposals too, like ending 00:04:05.400 --> 00:04:07.939 the H -1B lottery and giving visas based on the 00:04:07.939 --> 00:04:10.360 highest salary offers, shifting from a broader 00:04:10.360 --> 00:04:13.229 talent pool to Well, earning potential. Okay. 00:04:13.349 --> 00:04:15.270 Let's just pause for a second and think historically, 00:04:15.449 --> 00:04:17.829 because today, August 14th, has seen some defining 00:04:17.829 --> 00:04:21.410 moments. Back in 1935, FDR signed the Social 00:04:21.410 --> 00:04:23.850 Security Act, huge piece of the U .S. social 00:04:23.850 --> 00:04:26.970 safety net. Right. And then, 1945, same date, 00:04:27.389 --> 00:04:28.930 President Truman announced Japan's surrender, 00:04:29.250 --> 00:04:31.550 ending World War II, solidified the U .S. as 00:04:31.550 --> 00:04:34.009 a global power. Two massive moments defining 00:04:34.009 --> 00:04:37.670 the government's role both at home and on the 00:04:37.670 --> 00:04:40.579 world stage. So, maybe a final thought for everyone 00:04:40.579 --> 00:04:42.980 listening. As you think about everything we've 00:04:42.980 --> 00:04:46.060 touched on, the economy, federal reach, immigration 00:04:46.060 --> 00:04:50.019 shifts, how do these current debates echo those 00:04:50.019 --> 00:04:52.160 big historical moments? What does it mean for 00:04:52.160 --> 00:04:55.480 America's power, its social contract, when so 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:57.160 much seems to be shifting through administrative 00:04:57.160 --> 00:05:00.120 action rather than big legislation like social 00:05:00.120 --> 00:05:02.100 security or decisions like ending a world war? 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:03.899 Something to consider. Definitely something to 00:05:03.899 --> 00:05:06.279 consider. That's all the time we have for today's 00:05:06.279 --> 00:05:07.720 Deep Dive. Thanks for joining us.