Hey, everyone, and welcome back to The Deep Dive.
Today is Thursday, August 14th, 2025. We're really
digging into some, well, some conflicting signals
shaping the US right now, everything from the
economy to some big shifts in federal power and
even critical changes in immigration policy.
Our goal, like always, is to cut through the
noise, pull out the key insights, and help you
understand the why behind the headlines, what's
really impacting you. Okay, so let's jump into
the economy because the data right now it shows
this this real tug -of -war We just got the producer
price index the PPI, you know wholesale inflation.
It's surged point nine percent in July. That's
The biggest jump in three years seems like tariffs
are really hitting business costs. Yeah, it's
a big number But then the consumer price index
TPI it held steady at two point seven percent
and core inflation was mostly services not goods
That difference is what's pretty stark and it
puts the Federal Reserve in a really difficult
position Yeah, so well on one side you've got
pressure coming from the White House to cut interest
rates But that big PPI jump that's often a sign
of things to come it signals future inflation
because businesses are paying more now They'll
probably pass those costs on to you the consumer
down the line. It's a real tightrope for the
Fed right a tightrope So how's Wall Street taking
all this? this mixed picture, especially with
government policies seeming to play such a direct
role now. Well, Wall Street definitely reacted.
That stock market rally, it sort of stalled out
after the hot PPI report you saw in the Dow,
the NASDAQ. Yeah. And it really shows how policy
hits companies directly. Look at Intel shares
jumped, what, 7 .4 percent. Just on reports,
the government might take a stake, but then tapestry
they own. This stock just plummeted nearly 16
percent and expected $160 million hit from tariffs.
Wow. So it shows this two -tier market idea.
It's not just about business fundamentals anymore.
It's really sensitive to political moves So investors
basically need to be political analysts now,
too That's a shift and this theme, you know shifting
power administrative influence It's not just
the economy. We're seeing it play out in government
itself testing federal versus local lines Let's
talk about the DC police situation. That's right.
The administration started this 30 -day federal
takeover of the DC police force. The justification
is cracking down on crime. And there are hints
it might be extended. OK. It creates, well, obvious
confusion in the chain of command. And it's a
major test of federal versus local control. What's
also interesting is the role of DC's mayor, Muriel
Bowser. She's a Democrat. But she's kind of walking
this fine line, working with the administration,
despite opposition from her national party. Providing
some bipartisan cover, essentially. Exactly.
And it raises a big question. If crime can be
the reason here, what does that mean for other
cities? Could it erode home rule elsewhere? That's
a really important point about precedent. And
this idea, administrative shifts with big consequences.
It's hitting immigration policy hard too, with
very direct human impacts. Starting tomorrow,
August 15th, USCIS is changing how it calculates
kids' ages under the Child Status Protection
Act, CSPA. Yes. This is critical. They're switching
to using the final action dates chart. What that
means, practically, because of huge green card
backlogs, is that the date used to lock in a
child's age might be much older than when the
family actually applied. Okay. So thousands of
kids, especially children of high skilled visa
holders and Indian families, are disproportionately
affected here. like 62 % of the employment backlog,
they'll turn 21 on paper, basically. They age
out. And face deportation or family separation.
Exactly. Forced departure or separation. It's
a stark example of what some people call shadow
policy. Shadow policy. Yeah, basically changing
legal immigration levels through these kinds
of administrative tweaks, not through new laws
passed by Congress. Is there another side to
it? An argument? These are just needed adjustments.
Well, some might argue it streamlines things,
perhaps. But the clear outcome for many families
is that fewer members qualify. It tightens legal
immigration without a big public debate. And
it fits with other proposals too, like ending
the H -1B lottery and giving visas based on the
highest salary offers, shifting from a broader
talent pool to Well, earning potential. Okay.
Let's just pause for a second and think historically,
because today, August 14th, has seen some defining
moments. Back in 1935, FDR signed the Social
Security Act, huge piece of the U .S. social
safety net. Right. And then, 1945, same date,
President Truman announced Japan's surrender,
ending World War II, solidified the U .S. as
a global power. Two massive moments defining
the government's role both at home and on the
world stage. So, maybe a final thought for everyone
listening. As you think about everything we've
touched on, the economy, federal reach, immigration
shifts, how do these current debates echo those
big historical moments? What does it mean for
America's power, its social contract, when so
much seems to be shifting through administrative
action rather than big legislation like social
security or decisions like ending a world war?
Something to consider. Definitely something to
consider. That's all the time we have for today's
Deep Dive. Thanks for joining us.