Welcome to The Deep Dive. Today, we are really
plunging into July 1st, 2025. Quite a day, right?
Seismic shifts across Washington, the economy,
health, even summer plans. Absolutely. A whirlwind.
Our goal here is really to cut through the noise,
distill the most critical stuff for you. Exactly.
Give you that shortcut. And the big headline,
the one everyone's talking about, is that massive
bill on Capitol Hill, nearly a thousand pages.
Yeah, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBA.
Quite the name. It passed the Senate just barely,
51 -50. The Vice President breaking the tie,
right? After this huge round -the -clock session.
That's it. A real slog. And Democrats forced
that 16 -hour reading, the votorama, trying to
slow it down, highlight their points. But, well,
the majority held. So let's unpack this OB -BBA.
What's actually in it? It seems to stand on,
what, three main pillars? Pretty much. First,
you've got huge tax cuts. We're talking $4 .5
trillion. Wow. And that makes the 2017 Trump
tax cuts permanent. Largely, yes. Plus, eliminating
federal income tax on tips and overtime, boosting
the child tax credit a bit, a new senior deduction,
and, interestingly, a temporary hike in the salty
cap. Ah, the state and local tax deduction. To
$40 ,000 for five years, okay? But where does
the money come from? Well, that's pillar two,
spending cuts. $1 .2 trillion. And the deepest
cuts are aimed at Medicaid and SNP food stamps.
How are they doing that? Mostly through tougher
work requirements, checking eligibility more
often, changing how the feds reimburse states,
plus rolling back billions in those green energy
tax credits. Got it. And the third pillar. Border
and National Security, a big chunk, $350 billion.
That funds more wall, 100 ,000 migrant detention
beds, 10 ,000 new ICE officers. And this Golden
Dome missile defense I keep hearing about. Yeah,
that's in there too. Plus new fees on immigrants.
It's a real mix. OK, so the impact. What are
the independent analyses saying? CBO. The CBO
Congressional Budget Office estimates nearly
12 million more Americans could be uninsured
by 2034, mostly from those Medicaid changes.
11 .8 million. Yeah. And financially. The Yale
Budget Lab had a take, right? They did. Called
it highly regressive. Their analysis suggests
the bottom 20 % of earners could actually see
their after -tax income fall by about $700. Well,
the top 1%. They get an average tax cut over
$58 ,000 in 2026 alone. So a big wealth transfer
potential. And the national debt can't be good.
No. CBO projects a $4 .5 trillion revenue reduction
over 10 years. The Committee for a Responsible
Federal Budget thinks it adds at least $3 trillion
to the debt, maybe even $5 trillion if temporary
stuff gets extended. Oof. And it wasn't unanimous
even on the Republican side, right? Tillis. Tillis,
Collins, Paul. Right. Tillis is retiring, worried
about Medicaid. Collins cited concerns over the
safety net, though she got some rural hospital
funds, and ran Paul. He objected to raising the
debt limit by $5 trillion. And then there was
that whole Trump -Musk feud flaring up around
this. Primary threats versus deportation threats.
Wild. Yeah, Tesla stock even dipped 8%. It sort
of signals the strange new era where political
fights spill directly into market dynamics. Messy.
OK, let's shift gears. What about the broader
economy? The pulse check there. It's a bit confusing,
honestly. We saw May's Joltus report job openings
look surprisingly strong. 7 .8 million. But the
June forecast is predicting a slowdown. Yeah,
maybe only 110 ,000 jobs added, unemployment
ticking up to 4 .3 percent. So conflicting signals.
And inflation, the CPI numbers. May CPI was actually
a bit below forecast at 2 .4 percent. Core inflation
held at 2 .8 percent. Energy costs helped down
3 .5 percent. OK, some relief there. But food
and housing. Still sticky. Food index up 2 .9
percent. Shelter up 3 .9 percent. And that's
what hits household budgets hardest, you know.
Right. and GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDP
Now model just revised Q2 growth down a bit from
2 .9 % to 2 .5%. So maybe some cooling signs
overall. Hmm. Okay. For the economy, too. Well,
our health. Big moves there, too, on July 1st.
Public health shakeups. Big time. At the CDC,
the entire ACIP, that's the Advisory Committee
on Immunization Practices, was dismissed and
reconstituted. The stated goal was restoring
public trust. Oh, complete overhaul. And the
NIH. A new public access policy. Basically, any
research funded by NIH has to be publicly available
immediately. No more 12 -month paywall. Big push
for transparency. That sounds significant for
researchers and everyone, really. What about
medical breakthroughs? Some exciting stuff. A
new combo drug therapy for advanced melanoma
looks promising in early models stopping spread.
And personalized exercise, showing real benefits
for lung and breast cancer recovery. That's fantastic.
Anything on brain health. Yes, those GLP -1 drugs,
you know, for diabetes and obesity, they're showing
potential for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's possibly
by reducing brain inflammation. Interesting connection.
And these engineered bacteria? Engineered living
therapeutics. Programming helpful bacteria to
actually make medicine inside your body. Like
tiny drug factories. Still early days, but fascinating.
Very sci -fi. And wellness trends, what's buzzing?
The gut -brain axis is still huge. Research is
getting specific, linking certain gut bacteria
to things like, say, impulsivity. Really? And
microplastics. Still a worry. Growing worry,
yeah. Finding them in the human body. So, wellness
advice now includes avoiding plastic bottles,
definitely not heating food in plastic, eating
fiber, maybe certain probiotics, practical steps.
Good advice. Okay, finally, let's talk summer,
getaways, and weather. What are the travel trends?
Kind of polarized, actually. You've got the high
energy spots booming Hawaii, Vegas, Orlando,
especially with the new universal epic universe
opening. But also the opposite. Exactly. Quiet
nature escapes are also big. Think Bold Coast
in Maine, Lititz, Pennsylvania, or those luxury
dude ranches out west. People want extremes,
it seems. Makes sense. And the weather forecast.
Brace ourselves. Mostly, yes. Expect a hotter
than average summer for most of the U .S. Especially
the plains in deep south could be up to 4 degrees
Fahrenheit above normal. Which means more drought
and wildfires. Worsening conditions likely in
the high plains in the west, yeah. And for the
east. Stormy pattern frequent thunderstorms expected
and hurricanes. Oh, yeah NOAA is predicting an
active Atlantic season 13 to 19 named storms
higher list projected for the Gulf Coast and
the Carolinas So need to stay alert there. Definitely.
Okay, that brings us to the end of this deep
dive into July 1st 2025 what a packed day from
massive laws changing the economic landscape
to shifts in public health and Well, even where
you might vacation. It's really something. It
is. And maybe a thought to leave you with is
just how interconnected all this stuff really
is. A policy decision in D .C. Yeah. It ripples
out, you know, thinking finances, public health
approaches, maybe even your summer trip. How
do you navigate it all? How do you make sense
of this increasingly complex world? Something
to think about.