WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.000 Welcome to The Deep Dive. Today, we are really 00:00:03.000 --> 00:00:07.360 plunging into July 1st, 2025. Quite a day, right? 00:00:07.860 --> 00:00:10.179 Seismic shifts across Washington, the economy, 00:00:10.199 --> 00:00:14.839 health, even summer plans. Absolutely. A whirlwind. 00:00:14.960 --> 00:00:16.980 Our goal here is really to cut through the noise, 00:00:17.260 --> 00:00:19.379 distill the most critical stuff for you. Exactly. 00:00:19.420 --> 00:00:21.320 Give you that shortcut. And the big headline, 00:00:21.379 --> 00:00:23.019 the one everyone's talking about, is that massive 00:00:23.019 --> 00:00:25.399 bill on Capitol Hill, nearly a thousand pages. 00:00:25.600 --> 00:00:29.140 Yeah, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBA. 00:00:29.289 --> 00:00:32.109 Quite the name. It passed the Senate just barely, 00:00:32.329 --> 00:00:33.969 51 -50. The Vice President breaking the tie, 00:00:34.049 --> 00:00:35.950 right? After this huge round -the -clock session. 00:00:36.009 --> 00:00:38.590 That's it. A real slog. And Democrats forced 00:00:38.590 --> 00:00:41.829 that 16 -hour reading, the votorama, trying to 00:00:41.829 --> 00:00:44.649 slow it down, highlight their points. But, well, 00:00:44.710 --> 00:00:47.630 the majority held. So let's unpack this OB -BBA. 00:00:47.770 --> 00:00:49.969 What's actually in it? It seems to stand on, 00:00:49.969 --> 00:00:51.990 what, three main pillars? Pretty much. First, 00:00:52.009 --> 00:00:54.170 you've got huge tax cuts. We're talking $4 .5 00:00:54.170 --> 00:00:57.009 trillion. Wow. And that makes the 2017 Trump 00:00:57.009 --> 00:01:00.399 tax cuts permanent. Largely, yes. Plus, eliminating 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:03.020 federal income tax on tips and overtime, boosting 00:01:03.020 --> 00:01:05.519 the child tax credit a bit, a new senior deduction, 00:01:06.180 --> 00:01:08.620 and, interestingly, a temporary hike in the salty 00:01:08.620 --> 00:01:11.780 cap. Ah, the state and local tax deduction. To 00:01:11.780 --> 00:01:14.939 $40 ,000 for five years, okay? But where does 00:01:14.939 --> 00:01:16.620 the money come from? Well, that's pillar two, 00:01:16.920 --> 00:01:20.579 spending cuts. $1 .2 trillion. And the deepest 00:01:20.579 --> 00:01:23.420 cuts are aimed at Medicaid and SNP food stamps. 00:01:23.640 --> 00:01:25.640 How are they doing that? Mostly through tougher 00:01:25.640 --> 00:01:27.640 work requirements, checking eligibility more 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:29.640 often, changing how the feds reimburse states, 00:01:30.099 --> 00:01:32.579 plus rolling back billions in those green energy 00:01:32.579 --> 00:01:35.359 tax credits. Got it. And the third pillar. Border 00:01:35.359 --> 00:01:37.879 and National Security, a big chunk, $350 billion. 00:01:38.260 --> 00:01:41.719 That funds more wall, 100 ,000 migrant detention 00:01:41.719 --> 00:01:45.140 beds, 10 ,000 new ICE officers. And this Golden 00:01:45.140 --> 00:01:47.140 Dome missile defense I keep hearing about. Yeah, 00:01:47.159 --> 00:01:49.120 that's in there too. Plus new fees on immigrants. 00:01:49.280 --> 00:01:52.200 It's a real mix. OK, so the impact. What are 00:01:52.200 --> 00:01:55.159 the independent analyses saying? CBO. The CBO 00:01:55.159 --> 00:01:57.060 Congressional Budget Office estimates nearly 00:01:57.060 --> 00:01:59.500 12 million more Americans could be uninsured 00:01:59.500 --> 00:02:02.260 by 2034, mostly from those Medicaid changes. 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:05.840 11 .8 million. Yeah. And financially. The Yale 00:02:05.840 --> 00:02:08.800 Budget Lab had a take, right? They did. Called 00:02:08.800 --> 00:02:11.699 it highly regressive. Their analysis suggests 00:02:11.699 --> 00:02:13.960 the bottom 20 % of earners could actually see 00:02:13.960 --> 00:02:17.159 their after -tax income fall by about $700. Well, 00:02:17.259 --> 00:02:19.800 the top 1%. They get an average tax cut over 00:02:19.800 --> 00:02:23.900 $58 ,000 in 2026 alone. So a big wealth transfer 00:02:23.900 --> 00:02:26.439 potential. And the national debt can't be good. 00:02:26.520 --> 00:02:30.759 No. CBO projects a $4 .5 trillion revenue reduction 00:02:30.759 --> 00:02:33.379 over 10 years. The Committee for a Responsible 00:02:33.379 --> 00:02:35.800 Federal Budget thinks it adds at least $3 trillion 00:02:35.800 --> 00:02:38.879 to the debt, maybe even $5 trillion if temporary 00:02:38.879 --> 00:02:41.780 stuff gets extended. Oof. And it wasn't unanimous 00:02:41.780 --> 00:02:44.439 even on the Republican side, right? Tillis. Tillis, 00:02:44.520 --> 00:02:46.840 Collins, Paul. Right. Tillis is retiring, worried 00:02:46.840 --> 00:02:49.080 about Medicaid. Collins cited concerns over the 00:02:49.080 --> 00:02:51.020 safety net, though she got some rural hospital 00:02:51.020 --> 00:02:54.080 funds, and ran Paul. He objected to raising the 00:02:54.080 --> 00:02:56.159 debt limit by $5 trillion. And then there was 00:02:56.159 --> 00:02:58.800 that whole Trump -Musk feud flaring up around 00:02:58.800 --> 00:03:01.300 this. Primary threats versus deportation threats. 00:03:01.580 --> 00:03:04.360 Wild. Yeah, Tesla stock even dipped 8%. It sort 00:03:04.360 --> 00:03:06.680 of signals the strange new era where political 00:03:06.680 --> 00:03:09.599 fights spill directly into market dynamics. Messy. 00:03:09.840 --> 00:03:12.099 OK, let's shift gears. What about the broader 00:03:12.099 --> 00:03:14.740 economy? The pulse check there. It's a bit confusing, 00:03:14.879 --> 00:03:18.280 honestly. We saw May's Joltus report job openings 00:03:18.280 --> 00:03:21.460 look surprisingly strong. 7 .8 million. But the 00:03:21.460 --> 00:03:23.979 June forecast is predicting a slowdown. Yeah, 00:03:24.020 --> 00:03:26.719 maybe only 110 ,000 jobs added, unemployment 00:03:26.719 --> 00:03:30.319 ticking up to 4 .3 percent. So conflicting signals. 00:03:30.479 --> 00:03:33.400 And inflation, the CPI numbers. May CPI was actually 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:36.259 a bit below forecast at 2 .4 percent. Core inflation 00:03:36.259 --> 00:03:39.120 held at 2 .8 percent. Energy costs helped down 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:41.819 3 .5 percent. OK, some relief there. But food 00:03:41.819 --> 00:03:44.800 and housing. Still sticky. Food index up 2 .9 00:03:44.800 --> 00:03:46.800 percent. Shelter up 3 .9 percent. And that's 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:48.659 what hits household budgets hardest, you know. 00:03:48.680 --> 00:03:51.930 Right. and GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDP 00:03:51.930 --> 00:03:55.110 Now model just revised Q2 growth down a bit from 00:03:55.110 --> 00:03:58.030 2 .9 % to 2 .5%. So maybe some cooling signs 00:03:58.030 --> 00:04:01.169 overall. Hmm. Okay. For the economy, too. Well, 00:04:01.250 --> 00:04:03.110 our health. Big moves there, too, on July 1st. 00:04:03.240 --> 00:04:06.020 Public health shakeups. Big time. At the CDC, 00:04:06.340 --> 00:04:08.539 the entire ACIP, that's the Advisory Committee 00:04:08.539 --> 00:04:11.259 on Immunization Practices, was dismissed and 00:04:11.259 --> 00:04:13.860 reconstituted. The stated goal was restoring 00:04:13.860 --> 00:04:16.379 public trust. Oh, complete overhaul. And the 00:04:16.379 --> 00:04:20.019 NIH. A new public access policy. Basically, any 00:04:20.019 --> 00:04:22.620 research funded by NIH has to be publicly available 00:04:22.620 --> 00:04:25.339 immediately. No more 12 -month paywall. Big push 00:04:25.339 --> 00:04:27.620 for transparency. That sounds significant for 00:04:27.620 --> 00:04:30.180 researchers and everyone, really. What about 00:04:30.180 --> 00:04:32.740 medical breakthroughs? Some exciting stuff. A 00:04:32.740 --> 00:04:35.379 new combo drug therapy for advanced melanoma 00:04:35.379 --> 00:04:37.639 looks promising in early models stopping spread. 00:04:38.079 --> 00:04:40.620 And personalized exercise, showing real benefits 00:04:40.620 --> 00:04:42.939 for lung and breast cancer recovery. That's fantastic. 00:04:43.079 --> 00:04:46.600 Anything on brain health. Yes, those GLP -1 drugs, 00:04:46.720 --> 00:04:49.939 you know, for diabetes and obesity, they're showing 00:04:49.939 --> 00:04:52.500 potential for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's possibly 00:04:52.500 --> 00:04:54.839 by reducing brain inflammation. Interesting connection. 00:04:55.149 --> 00:04:58.250 And these engineered bacteria? Engineered living 00:04:58.250 --> 00:05:00.970 therapeutics. Programming helpful bacteria to 00:05:00.970 --> 00:05:03.350 actually make medicine inside your body. Like 00:05:03.350 --> 00:05:06.089 tiny drug factories. Still early days, but fascinating. 00:05:06.350 --> 00:05:08.870 Very sci -fi. And wellness trends, what's buzzing? 00:05:09.069 --> 00:05:11.910 The gut -brain axis is still huge. Research is 00:05:11.910 --> 00:05:14.269 getting specific, linking certain gut bacteria 00:05:14.269 --> 00:05:17.569 to things like, say, impulsivity. Really? And 00:05:17.569 --> 00:05:20.410 microplastics. Still a worry. Growing worry, 00:05:20.490 --> 00:05:23.569 yeah. Finding them in the human body. So, wellness 00:05:23.569 --> 00:05:25.889 advice now includes avoiding plastic bottles, 00:05:26.529 --> 00:05:28.870 definitely not heating food in plastic, eating 00:05:28.870 --> 00:05:32.110 fiber, maybe certain probiotics, practical steps. 00:05:32.329 --> 00:05:35.089 Good advice. Okay, finally, let's talk summer, 00:05:35.449 --> 00:05:38.490 getaways, and weather. What are the travel trends? 00:05:38.730 --> 00:05:41.120 Kind of polarized, actually. You've got the high 00:05:41.120 --> 00:05:44.600 energy spots booming Hawaii, Vegas, Orlando, 00:05:45.220 --> 00:05:47.620 especially with the new universal epic universe 00:05:47.620 --> 00:05:50.360 opening. But also the opposite. Exactly. Quiet 00:05:50.360 --> 00:05:52.980 nature escapes are also big. Think Bold Coast 00:05:52.980 --> 00:05:55.740 in Maine, Lititz, Pennsylvania, or those luxury 00:05:55.740 --> 00:05:58.279 dude ranches out west. People want extremes, 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:01.240 it seems. Makes sense. And the weather forecast. 00:06:01.519 --> 00:06:04.620 Brace ourselves. Mostly, yes. Expect a hotter 00:06:04.620 --> 00:06:06.920 than average summer for most of the U .S. Especially 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:09.079 the plains in deep south could be up to 4 degrees 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:11.540 Fahrenheit above normal. Which means more drought 00:06:11.540 --> 00:06:14.000 and wildfires. Worsening conditions likely in 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:15.860 the high plains in the west, yeah. And for the 00:06:15.860 --> 00:06:18.759 east. Stormy pattern frequent thunderstorms expected 00:06:18.759 --> 00:06:21.500 and hurricanes. Oh, yeah NOAA is predicting an 00:06:21.500 --> 00:06:24.540 active Atlantic season 13 to 19 named storms 00:06:24.540 --> 00:06:26.480 higher list projected for the Gulf Coast and 00:06:26.480 --> 00:06:29.720 the Carolinas So need to stay alert there. Definitely. 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:32.180 Okay, that brings us to the end of this deep 00:06:32.180 --> 00:06:36.699 dive into July 1st 2025 what a packed day from 00:06:36.699 --> 00:06:38.740 massive laws changing the economic landscape 00:06:38.740 --> 00:06:42.649 to shifts in public health and Well, even where 00:06:42.649 --> 00:06:44.689 you might vacation. It's really something. It 00:06:44.689 --> 00:06:46.689 is. And maybe a thought to leave you with is 00:06:46.689 --> 00:06:48.589 just how interconnected all this stuff really 00:06:48.589 --> 00:06:51.769 is. A policy decision in D .C. Yeah. It ripples 00:06:51.769 --> 00:06:53.569 out, you know, thinking finances, public health 00:06:53.569 --> 00:06:55.290 approaches, maybe even your summer trip. How 00:06:55.290 --> 00:06:56.769 do you navigate it all? How do you make sense 00:06:56.769 --> 00:06:59.310 of this increasingly complex world? Something 00:06:59.310 --> 00:06:59.910 to think about.