WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.200 Welcome to The Deep Dive. Today, we're really 00:00:02.200 --> 00:00:04.719 digging into that intense 12 -day Iran -Israel 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:08.660 conflict back in June 2025. Right. You probably 00:00:08.660 --> 00:00:11.320 remember former U .S. President Trump's big social 00:00:11.320 --> 00:00:15.259 media announcement June 23rd. A complete and 00:00:15.259 --> 00:00:19.000 total ceasefire. Quite the declaration. So the 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:22.100 big questions are, was that ceasefire ever actually 00:00:22.100 --> 00:00:25.859 real? How did things get so bad? And well, did 00:00:25.859 --> 00:00:28.140 the fighting really stop? Let's unpack the sources. 00:00:28.219 --> 00:00:29.440 Well, first off, you have to understand this 00:00:29.440 --> 00:00:31.239 wasn't spontaneous at all. It was really the 00:00:31.239 --> 00:00:35.380 culmination of years of mounting tensions. OK. 00:00:35.600 --> 00:00:38.219 Think back. The U .S. pulled out of the JCPOA 00:00:38.219 --> 00:00:41.719 in 2018, then the Gaza war starting late 2023, 00:00:42.179 --> 00:00:44.700 plus those key assassinations, Haniyeh Nasrallah 00:00:44.700 --> 00:00:47.579 in 2024. Right. A lot leading up to it. Exactly. 00:00:47.659 --> 00:00:50.320 And the immediate spark really was the IAEA report 00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:53.200 on June 12 finding Iran noncompliant. That seemed 00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:54.939 to be the trigger. And then just a day later, 00:00:55.159 --> 00:00:58.299 June 13th, Israel launches Operation Rising Lion, 00:00:58.659 --> 00:01:01.679 their stated goal, degrade, destroy and remove 00:01:01.679 --> 00:01:03.880 Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. And 00:01:03.880 --> 00:01:06.819 it was a massive operation. Huge. Sources say 00:01:06.819 --> 00:01:10.760 over 200 jets, 330 munitions, hitting about 100 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:14.120 targets. And that included critical sites like 00:01:14.120 --> 00:01:17.079 Natanz and Fordow. Yeah, the big ones. And the 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.879 human cost was reportedly significant, too. Hundreds 00:01:19.879 --> 00:01:22.140 killed in Iran, according to initial reports. 00:01:22.359 --> 00:01:24.840 Then Iran hit back fast with Operation True Promise 00:01:24.840 --> 00:01:27.799 III. And this was a big deal because, for the 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:30.700 first time, Their missiles actually got through 00:01:30.700 --> 00:01:33.879 Israel's air defenses in significant numbers. 00:01:34.180 --> 00:01:37.280 Hitting cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba. 00:01:37.640 --> 00:01:40.180 The reports mentioned 28 killed in Israel, over 00:01:40.180 --> 00:01:43.040 1 ,200 injured. A major escalation on their part, 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:45.700 too. So after about nine days of this direct 00:01:45.700 --> 00:01:48.099 back and forth, the U .S. steps in decisively. 00:01:48.359 --> 00:01:50.959 June 22nd, Operation Midnight Hammer. Right. 00:01:50.959 --> 00:01:53.519 And this involved the B -2 stealth bombers. Using 00:01:53.519 --> 00:01:56.260 those JBU -57s, the massive ordnance penetrators, 00:01:56.400 --> 00:01:59.840 the bunker busters. Iran's three most vital nuclear 00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:03.159 facilities, Fordo, and Tanzan, Isfahan. That 00:02:03.159 --> 00:02:05.140 really upped the ante. A critical escalation, 00:02:05.260 --> 00:02:08.039 definitely. But Iran's response on the 23rd was 00:02:08.039 --> 00:02:10.360 interesting. Highly calculated. A missile barrage, 00:02:10.479 --> 00:02:12.840 yes, but symbolic. Targeted the U .S. Al Udeid 00:02:12.840 --> 00:02:15.840 air base in Qatar, right? That's right. But crucially, 00:02:16.479 --> 00:02:19.780 with advance warning, so no casualties, no real 00:02:19.780 --> 00:02:22.490 damage, it felt like... Well, like a necessary 00:02:22.490 --> 00:02:24.669 response for their credibility, but designed 00:02:24.669 --> 00:02:27.349 to avoid a full blown war with the U .S. Yeah, 00:02:27.409 --> 00:02:29.610 a sort of face saving off ramp, you could say. 00:02:29.750 --> 00:02:31.990 OK, so that brings us back to Trump's ceasefire 00:02:31.990 --> 00:02:34.830 announcement on the same day, June 23rd. Was 00:02:34.830 --> 00:02:38.490 this like a signed deal or something else? No, 00:02:38.490 --> 00:02:41.569 not a formal agreement. It was. much more fragile, 00:02:42.189 --> 00:02:44.250 really hammered out through frantic back -channel 00:02:44.250 --> 00:02:46.610 diplomacy. Great channels. Two main lines, basically. 00:02:47.210 --> 00:02:49.409 A direct one, Washington to Jerusalem, Israel 00:02:49.409 --> 00:02:51.789 agreed, claiming victory, of course. And then 00:02:51.789 --> 00:02:54.490 Doha, Qatar, mediating between the US and Iran. 00:02:54.889 --> 00:02:57.729 Which is fascinating, right? Guitar playing mediator, 00:02:58.090 --> 00:02:59.789 even after its own territory was technically 00:02:59.789 --> 00:03:02.610 attacked, she was their whole strategic, indispensability 00:03:02.610 --> 00:03:05.030 -formed policy in action. So what was the actual 00:03:05.030 --> 00:03:07.490 plan for this fragile ceasefire? Well, the idea 00:03:07.490 --> 00:03:09.669 was staggered. Iran was meant to stop strikes 00:03:09.669 --> 00:03:12.669 at midnight Eastern time. Israel, 12 hours later. 00:03:12.909 --> 00:03:16.250 12 hours later. Hmm. That sounds risky. It was. 00:03:16.810 --> 00:03:18.990 And the messaging was all over the place. Trump 00:03:18.990 --> 00:03:22.879 tweets, now in effect. Israel says, hold on, 00:03:23.099 --> 00:03:25.120 we'll respond forcefully to any violation. And 00:03:25.120 --> 00:03:27.860 Iran. Iran's foreign minister publicly denied 00:03:27.860 --> 00:03:30.199 any formal agreement existed at all, though he 00:03:30.199 --> 00:03:32.259 did sort of offer a conditional halt to attacks. 00:03:32.479 --> 00:03:34.520 It was messy. So it fell apart quickly then. 00:03:34.719 --> 00:03:37.379 Almost immediately. Yeah. Within hours, Israel 00:03:37.379 --> 00:03:39.539 accused Iran of launching new missiles claimed 00:03:39.539 --> 00:03:41.560 four people were killed in Beersheba. Did Iran 00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:43.780 admit to that? No, they vehemently denied it. 00:03:44.080 --> 00:03:46.960 But that accusation was enough. Israel announced 00:03:46.960 --> 00:03:49.780 renewed, intense operations. Even with Trump 00:03:49.780 --> 00:03:52.340 publicly pleading on social media, bring your 00:03:52.340 --> 00:03:54.580 pilots home now. Yeah, those pleas didn't seem 00:03:54.580 --> 00:03:58.020 to land. So really an autopsy of a failure for 00:03:58.020 --> 00:04:01.759 that ceasefire. No unified agreement, that staggered 00:04:01.759 --> 00:04:04.280 timeline breeding mistrust, and just fundamentally 00:04:04.280 --> 00:04:06.340 different goals for everyone involved. Exactly. 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:09.439 It was more a ceasefire of narratives than actual 00:04:09.439 --> 00:04:12.039 reality. And the result. Well, this whole 12 00:04:12.039 --> 00:04:15.340 -day war effectively shattered that old illusion 00:04:15.340 --> 00:04:18.220 of a manageable shadow war between Iran and Israel. 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:22.319 Now it's direct conflict and a very unstable 00:04:22.319 --> 00:04:24.959 new reality. So where did that leave the main 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:28.639 players? Israel claimed victory, shifted focus 00:04:28.639 --> 00:04:32.120 back to Gaza. Right. Iran, meanwhile, took some 00:04:32.120 --> 00:04:35.319 devastating hits, clearly forcing a strategic 00:04:35.319 --> 00:04:38.480 rethink. And the U .S., while they demonstrated 00:04:38.480 --> 00:04:41.160 their deterrent power, made their red lines pretty 00:04:41.160 --> 00:04:44.019 clear. You mentioned a strategic rethink for 00:04:44.019 --> 00:04:46.899 Iran. What does that look like? It's what some 00:04:46.899 --> 00:04:50.170 are calling a strategic inversion. The cost of 00:04:50.170 --> 00:04:54.009 direct war proved so high for Iran that paradoxically, 00:04:54.290 --> 00:04:56.750 it probably increases the value of its proxy 00:04:56.750 --> 00:04:59.189 network groups like Hezbollah. So a return to 00:04:59.189 --> 00:05:02.230 the shadows or maybe asymmetric retaliation. 00:05:02.490 --> 00:05:05.110 That seems more likely, yes. Using proxies becomes 00:05:05.110 --> 00:05:07.350 strategically more important again. And the economy. 00:05:07.490 --> 00:05:10.370 Oil prices jumped over 10 percent. The Strait 00:05:10.370 --> 00:05:12.389 of Hormuz is always a flash point. Absolutely 00:05:12.389 --> 00:05:15.699 a huge risk. But there's also this idea of mutually 00:05:15.699 --> 00:05:18.560 assured economic disruption. Iran itself relies 00:05:18.560 --> 00:05:20.519 heavily on the strait for its own oil exports. 00:05:20.980 --> 00:05:22.819 Ah, so closing it completely hurts them badly 00:05:22.819 --> 00:05:26.180 too. Precisely. Which acts as a powerful disincentive 00:05:26.180 --> 00:05:28.379 against total closure. So maybe the most likely 00:05:28.379 --> 00:05:30.120 scenario going forward is more of a controlled 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:33.139 confrontation. Low intensity grinding conflict. 00:05:33.680 --> 00:05:36.420 Flare ups, proxy actions, cyber attacks. But 00:05:36.420 --> 00:05:38.819 maybe avoiding that full scale direct war we 00:05:38.819 --> 00:05:41.600 saw for those 12 days. So our deep dive really 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:43.899 shows the ceasefire wasn't an end, was it? Right. 00:05:44.459 --> 00:05:47.300 Just... the end of the most intense chapter so 00:05:47.300 --> 00:05:49.879 far, the actual drivers of the conflict. Still 00:05:49.879 --> 00:05:51.899 very much there. Definitely. The region seems 00:05:51.899 --> 00:05:55.699 locked in this perilous unstable equilibrium 00:05:55.699 --> 00:05:57.819 now. Which leaves us wondering, what form does 00:05:57.819 --> 00:06:00.279 this conflict take next? And maybe more importantly, 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:02.839 what happens if one side miscalculates in this 00:06:02.839 --> 00:06:05.540 new unstable environment? The next chapter, well, 00:06:05.639 --> 00:06:07.459 it's still being written for all of us to understand.