WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.379 Welcome to the deep dive. We're your shortcut 00:00:02.379 --> 00:00:06.120 to getting really well informed on critical events. 00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:09.140 Glad to be here. Today, we're looking at a day 00:00:09.140 --> 00:00:11.419 that, well, it fundamentally changed things. 00:00:11.599 --> 00:00:15.439 June 22nd, 2025. A pivotal date. It's when this 00:00:15.439 --> 00:00:17.280 regional conflict, you know, the one sparked 00:00:17.280 --> 00:00:20.179 by Israel's Operation Rising Lion against Iran, 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:23.420 it just exploded, became a global crisis. Right. 00:00:23.420 --> 00:00:25.579 Because the U .S. got directly involved. Exactly. 00:00:25.839 --> 00:00:28.440 President Donald Trump announced Operation Midnight 00:00:28.440 --> 00:00:31.949 Hammer. a huge U .S. military strike targeting 00:00:31.949 --> 00:00:34.450 Iran's nuclear program. And it's fascinating 00:00:34.450 --> 00:00:37.490 because the initial U .S. stance was more about 00:00:37.490 --> 00:00:41.049 distancing itself than this sudden, very high 00:00:41.049 --> 00:00:43.609 -stakes move. A real gamble to try and neutralize 00:00:43.609 --> 00:00:46.250 that nuclear threat. So our mission today... 00:00:46.270 --> 00:00:49.030 in this deep dive is to unpack this strike. You 00:00:49.030 --> 00:00:51.070 know, what happened, the reactions, the media 00:00:51.070 --> 00:00:53.869 fallout politically, militarily, economically. 00:00:53.990 --> 00:00:56.770 And the human costs too. Can't forget that. Absolutely. 00:00:57.049 --> 00:00:59.109 So let's get into the strike itself. Operation 00:00:59.109 --> 00:01:01.030 Midnight Hammer. How did it actually unfold? 00:01:01.130 --> 00:01:03.070 Well, the scale is pretty extraordinary. We're 00:01:03.070 --> 00:01:05.530 talking B2 Spirit Stealth Bombers. The really 00:01:05.530 --> 00:01:08.920 advanced ones. Yeah, flying like 37 hours nonstop 00:01:08.920 --> 00:01:11.400 from Missouri. Mid -air refueling, the whole 00:01:11.400 --> 00:01:14.079 deal. Plus, U .S. Navy submarines involved, too. 00:01:14.219 --> 00:01:16.840 OK, so a major projection of force. But you mentioned 00:01:16.840 --> 00:01:18.780 the munitions were key. This is where it gets 00:01:18.780 --> 00:01:21.319 really interesting. Strategically, they use for 00:01:21.319 --> 00:01:24.859 the first time ever in combat the GBU -57AB, 00:01:25.400 --> 00:01:28.879 the MOP. MOP. Massive ordnance penetrator. It's 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:32.959 a 30 ,000 pound bunker buster bomb, huge, designed 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:36.250 to go through like 200 feet of reinforced concrete. 00:01:36.269 --> 00:01:40.120 Wow. And they used how many? 14, 14 MOPs were 00:01:40.120 --> 00:01:43.019 dropped, along with Tomahawk cruise missiles. 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:46.000 And the targets, very specific, I assume. Extremely. 00:01:46.099 --> 00:01:48.840 Fordow, which is buried deep underground, under 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:51.640 a mountain, basically, it got hit by 12 of the 00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:53.659 MOPs. That's good. Then Natanz, that's their 00:01:53.659 --> 00:01:55.700 biggest enrichment site, hit by two MOPs and 00:01:55.700 --> 00:01:58.280 Tomahawks. And Isfahan, the uranium conversion 00:01:58.280 --> 00:02:01.620 facility, hit by over two dozen Tomahawks. All 00:02:01.620 --> 00:02:05.250 around 2 .30 a .m. local time in Iran. a coordinated 00:02:05.250 --> 00:02:07.670 massive strike. Exactly. Precision targeting, 00:02:08.169 --> 00:02:10.129 massive firepower. But then came the aftermath 00:02:10.129 --> 00:02:13.810 and the story got, well, complicated. Conflicting 00:02:13.810 --> 00:02:15.889 narratives started immediately. Oh, absolutely. 00:02:16.129 --> 00:02:18.370 You had President Trump saying the sites were 00:02:18.370 --> 00:02:21.069 completely and totally obliterated. Strong words. 00:02:21.349 --> 00:02:25.490 But Iran? Iran came back quickly saying no irreversible 00:02:25.490 --> 00:02:28.469 damage, claimed they'd evacuated the sites, move 00:02:28.469 --> 00:02:30.949 materials beforehand, you know, damage control, 00:02:31.110 --> 00:02:33.810 literally. So who do you believe? What did independent 00:02:33.810 --> 00:02:37.310 sources say? Well, the IAEA, the UN's nuclear 00:02:37.310 --> 00:02:40.770 watchdog, they confirmed no increase in radiation 00:02:40.770 --> 00:02:44.680 off site. which is significant, and satellite 00:02:44.680 --> 00:02:47.000 images. They showed clear impacts. Yes, you could 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:49.340 see the damage on the surface, but confirming 00:02:49.340 --> 00:02:51.500 the underground damage, especially at Forto, 00:02:51.659 --> 00:02:53.620 that was much harder. Even the New York Times 00:02:53.620 --> 00:02:57.270 reported Forto wasn't fully destroyed. the classic 00:02:57.270 --> 00:03:00.349 fog of war situation amplified. Precisely. It 00:03:00.349 --> 00:03:03.330 raises that big question, whose story wins and 00:03:03.330 --> 00:03:05.370 why does that even matter in the immediate term? 00:03:05.669 --> 00:03:08.569 Right. So Iran has hit hard, but maybe not completely 00:03:08.569 --> 00:03:11.009 knocked out. What do they do next? Do they retaliate? 00:03:11.210 --> 00:03:13.560 Swiftly. and defiantly, within hours actually, 00:03:13.699 --> 00:03:17.199 they launched between 30 and 40 ballistic missiles 00:03:17.199 --> 00:03:20.360 at Israel. At Israel, okay. Including their advanced 00:03:20.360 --> 00:03:23.580 Kaibar Shikken missile. Reports indicated structural 00:03:23.580 --> 00:03:28.340 damage in cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa, and somewhere 00:03:28.340 --> 00:03:32.719 between 21 and 26 people wounded. So a direct, 00:03:33.020 --> 00:03:35.080 significant response. What about the rest of 00:03:35.080 --> 00:03:37.659 the world? How do they react to the U .S. strike? 00:03:37.900 --> 00:03:40.139 It was really fractured. The UN Security Council 00:03:40.139 --> 00:03:42.819 met, but, well, it was paralyzed. U .S. veto 00:03:42.819 --> 00:03:45.599 power, essentially. Predictable, maybe. Perhaps. 00:03:45.840 --> 00:03:48.860 European allies, the UK, France, Germany, they 00:03:48.860 --> 00:03:51.300 urged restraint, called for de -escalation, but 00:03:51.300 --> 00:03:53.300 they starved short of actually endorsing the 00:03:53.300 --> 00:03:55.520 U .S. strikes. Hedging their bets? You could 00:03:55.520 --> 00:03:58.710 say that. But Russia and China. They strongly 00:03:58.710 --> 00:04:01.550 condemned the U .S. action. It really solidified 00:04:01.550 --> 00:04:04.330 that anti -U .S. block you could see it forming. 00:04:04.389 --> 00:04:07.090 And back in the U .S., any pushback? Oh, yes. 00:04:07.610 --> 00:04:09.229 Domestically, there was immediate debate about 00:04:09.229 --> 00:04:11.409 war powers. Senator Tim Kaine, for instance, 00:04:11.610 --> 00:04:13.069 strongly condemned the lack of congressional 00:04:13.069 --> 00:04:15.689 authorization. And pre -strike polls actually 00:04:15.689 --> 00:04:18.329 showed significant public opposition to military 00:04:18.329 --> 00:04:20.970 action against Iran. So the strike didn't really 00:04:20.970 --> 00:04:23.800 isolate Iran globally. quite the opposite in 00:04:23.800 --> 00:04:26.860 some ways. It seemed to expose divisions among 00:04:26.860 --> 00:04:29.279 traditional allies and kind of pushed Russia 00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:31.699 and China closer together in opposition. OK, 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:34.480 let's talk economics. Big military actions usually 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:37.019 shake the markets. Absolutely. The immediate 00:04:37.019 --> 00:04:40.149 fear was the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, closing 00:04:40.149 --> 00:04:42.790 that choke point, something like 30 % of global 00:04:42.790 --> 00:04:45.310 seaborne oil goes through there. Huge implications. 00:04:45.730 --> 00:04:49.089 Massive. Fears that oil prices could soar past 00:04:49.089 --> 00:04:52.509 $100, maybe even $130 a barrel, threatening a 00:04:52.509 --> 00:04:55.009 global recession. But didn't the Israeli market 00:04:55.009 --> 00:04:57.410 react differently? Yeah, interestingly, the Israeli 00:04:57.410 --> 00:04:59.990 stock exchange actually surged. Maybe a sense 00:04:59.990 --> 00:05:02.310 of increased security or perhaps just market 00:05:02.310 --> 00:05:05.110 speculation. Hard to say for sure. And amid all 00:05:05.110 --> 00:05:07.509 this geopolitical and economic turmoil, the human 00:05:07.509 --> 00:05:10.449 cost. It gets easily overlooked, but it's critical. 00:05:10.649 --> 00:05:12.889 We already had hundreds of civilian casualties 00:05:12.889 --> 00:05:15.069 from the regional conflict in the week before 00:05:15.069 --> 00:05:17.089 the U .S. strike. Right. Then the U .S. strike 00:05:17.089 --> 00:05:19.689 itself and Iran's retaliation against Israel 00:05:19.689 --> 00:05:22.610 both caused more injuries, more displacement. 00:05:23.329 --> 00:05:25.689 Humanitarian groups were issuing stark warnings 00:05:25.689 --> 00:05:28.350 about, quote, utter disregard for civilian life. 00:05:28.709 --> 00:05:31.370 It really punctures that idea of a clean surgical 00:05:31.370 --> 00:05:33.189 strike, doesn't it? It really does. They called 00:05:33.189 --> 00:05:36.159 it the myth of the surgical strike. Civilians 00:05:36.159 --> 00:05:38.500 inevitably get caught in the middle. It's devastating. 00:05:38.980 --> 00:05:41.079 So let's try to wrap this up. What does Operation 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:44.800 Midnight Hammer ultimately mean for you, for 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:46.939 the world? Well, it clearly didn't end the conflict. 00:05:47.120 --> 00:05:49.600 It just transformed it, escalated a regional 00:05:49.600 --> 00:05:52.699 fight into a genuine global crisis. That U .S. 00:05:52.920 --> 00:05:55.600 gamble? meant maybe to de -escalate by force, 00:05:55.879 --> 00:05:59.079 it didn't work. It seems it failed to force Iran 00:05:59.079 --> 00:06:02.459 into submission, and it fractured the West while 00:06:02.459 --> 00:06:05.939 solidifying this new geopolitical axis opposing 00:06:05.939 --> 00:06:08.839 the US. So looking ahead, what are the paths? 00:06:09.600 --> 00:06:11.939 Seems pretty dangerous. Terribly dangerous. You 00:06:11.939 --> 00:06:14.420 basically have three potential paths now. One, 00:06:14.720 --> 00:06:17.600 a wider regional war, maybe direct US -Iran conflict. 00:06:17.860 --> 00:06:21.540 Two... a long grinding war of attrition, Israel 00:06:21.540 --> 00:06:24.959 versus Iran and its proxies, or three, some kind 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:27.819 of forced diplomatic end game under immense international 00:06:27.819 --> 00:06:29.939 pressure. This deep dive really shows us that 00:06:29.939 --> 00:06:32.060 doctrine, you know, peace through strength, it's 00:06:32.060 --> 00:06:34.160 facing its ultimate test right now. It absolutely 00:06:34.160 --> 00:06:36.720 is. And the whole world is kind of holding its 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:39.079 breath, isn't it? Waiting to see if this leads 00:06:39.079 --> 00:06:42.379 to some kind of coerced peace or just a much 00:06:42.379 --> 00:06:45.000 bigger tragedy. And honestly, Iran's next move 00:06:45.000 --> 00:06:47.480 might just be the deciding factor. Which path 00:06:47.480 --> 00:06:50.079 we all end up walking down? A sobering thought 00:06:50.079 --> 00:06:52.680 to end on. Thanks for joining us on the Deep 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:52.860 Tuff.