WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.560 keeping up with all the big global shifts. Well, 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:04.980 it can feel overwhelming, right? So that's what 00:00:04.980 --> 00:00:06.459 we're here for today. We're doing a deep dive 00:00:06.459 --> 00:00:09.140 into the key moments shaping things from, let's 00:00:09.140 --> 00:00:13.660 say, mid -May 2025 up to now. We've boiled it 00:00:13.660 --> 00:00:16.440 down to give you a clear sense of what's really 00:00:16.440 --> 00:00:18.640 driving change. Yeah. And what's so interesting 00:00:18.640 --> 00:00:21.019 about this period is how things you might think 00:00:21.019 --> 00:00:23.500 are separate. They're actually really connected. 00:00:23.780 --> 00:00:26.120 We're going to focus on four main interconnected 00:00:26.120 --> 00:00:29.160 areas. OK. First, the shifts in the U .S. economy. 00:00:29.559 --> 00:00:32.399 Then what's happening with AI regulation again 00:00:32.399 --> 00:00:35.750 in the U .S. Third, climate policy advancements. 00:00:35.850 --> 00:00:38.350 And finally, we'll zoom out to the global picture, 00:00:38.549 --> 00:00:42.369 the economic outlook, geopolitics, trade, global 00:00:42.369 --> 00:00:45.469 AI rules, and actually some pretty amazing science 00:00:45.469 --> 00:00:48.009 news, too. Sounds good. The goal is really to 00:00:48.009 --> 00:00:50.250 pull out the crucial insights, maybe highlight 00:00:50.250 --> 00:00:52.329 a few things you haven't connected before. Exactly. 00:00:52.350 --> 00:00:54.270 We want to give you the core story distilled 00:00:54.270 --> 00:00:56.070 from a lot of different sources. All right. Let's 00:00:56.070 --> 00:00:59.049 jump in. Starting with the U .S. economy. Seems 00:00:59.049 --> 00:01:01.210 like 2025 brought some pretty noticeable changes. 00:01:01.710 --> 00:01:05.950 Oh, definitely. There's been a marked slowdown. 00:01:05.989 --> 00:01:07.530 If you look at the average annualized growth, 00:01:07.689 --> 00:01:11.090 it dropped pretty sharply from 2 .5 percent in 00:01:11.090 --> 00:01:15.430 2024 down to just 0 .1 percent in 2025. That's 00:01:15.430 --> 00:01:17.709 according to the Peterson Institute. Wow. 0 .1 00:01:17.709 --> 00:01:20.000 percent. That's basically flatlining. Pretty 00:01:20.000 --> 00:01:22.319 much. And they also put the probability of a 00:01:22.319 --> 00:01:24.379 recession at around 40 percent. Now, Forrester's 00:01:24.379 --> 00:01:26.599 forecast is a little higher, maybe 1 .4 percent 00:01:26.599 --> 00:01:28.700 real GDP growth for the year. But even that, 00:01:28.819 --> 00:01:31.159 it's still way down from the 2 .8 percent we 00:01:31.159 --> 00:01:34.640 saw in 2024. That is a substantial drop. So what 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:36.400 are the main reasons analysts are pointing to 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:39.099 for this cooling off? Well, the consensus really 00:01:39.099 --> 00:01:41.599 points towards the new tariffs and the shifts 00:01:41.599 --> 00:01:44.000 in trade policy. These things tend to put the 00:01:44.000 --> 00:01:47.219 brakes on economic activity. How so? Well, first, 00:01:47.340 --> 00:01:49.640 they make imported goods more expensive, something 00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:51.540 you might have felt yourself in everyday costs. 00:01:51.760 --> 00:01:54.260 They also disrupt supply chains that companies 00:01:54.260 --> 00:01:56.239 have built up over years. And ultimately, they 00:01:56.239 --> 00:01:58.480 eat away at people's real income. Right. And 00:01:58.480 --> 00:02:00.659 maybe just as important, the constant changes, 00:02:00.760 --> 00:02:02.760 the uncertainty around trade policy, it makes 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:05.019 it incredibly difficult for businesses to plan 00:02:05.019 --> 00:02:06.980 ahead. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. If you don't 00:02:06.980 --> 00:02:08.280 know what the rules will be, be next month or 00:02:08.280 --> 00:02:11.259 next year, you hesitate on big investments. Exactly. 00:02:11.379 --> 00:02:13.120 You hold off. And we saw that directly in the 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:15.419 numbers. Plus, there was also some added uncertainty 00:02:15.419 --> 00:02:18.860 from federal government layoffs and the disruptions 00:02:18.860 --> 00:02:21.300 linked to this new Department of Government Efficiency. 00:02:21.460 --> 00:02:23.840 It just adds another layer of instability. So 00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.939 how did that play out in terms of, say, consumer 00:02:26.939 --> 00:02:29.979 spending or business investment? we saw consumer 00:02:29.979 --> 00:02:32.939 spending growth slow down now people are still 00:02:32.939 --> 00:02:34.960 spending more on services compared to goods that 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:39.599 trend continued but the overall growth rate Definitely 00:02:39.599 --> 00:02:42.180 eased off. Remember, consumer spending is a huge 00:02:42.180 --> 00:02:44.919 part of the U .S. economy, like 68 percent of 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:48.919 GDP in 2024. A massive piece. Yeah. And business 00:02:48.919 --> 00:02:51.819 spending on fixed investments that decelerated 00:02:51.819 --> 00:02:54.699 even more sharply. It fell from 4 .0 percent 00:02:54.699 --> 00:02:57.520 growth down to 1 .6 percent. Companies were just 00:02:57.520 --> 00:02:59.840 delaying decisions because of all the trade uncertainty. 00:03:00.000 --> 00:03:02.000 And I assume trade itself slowed down to exports, 00:03:02.240 --> 00:03:04.979 imports. Yep. Reduced growth forecasts for both 00:03:04.979 --> 00:03:07.819 real exports and real imports and even government 00:03:07.819 --> 00:03:09.789 spending growth. came down compared to the previous 00:03:09.789 --> 00:03:12.069 year. So it sounds like the diagnosis is that 00:03:12.069 --> 00:03:15.550 this slowdown wasn't necessarily about like fundamental 00:03:15.550 --> 00:03:18.229 flaws in the economy itself that seems to be 00:03:18.229 --> 00:03:20.909 the view yes it appears largely driven by these 00:03:20.909 --> 00:03:23.370 specific protectionist trade policies and the 00:03:23.370 --> 00:03:25.430 cloud of uncertainty they created rather than 00:03:25.430 --> 00:03:28.789 say deep structural weaknesses it really highlights 00:03:28.789 --> 00:03:31.930 that direct link between policy choices and economic 00:03:31.930 --> 00:03:34.550 performance absolutely and it can become a self 00:03:34.550 --> 00:03:37.389 -feeding loop you know uncertainty makes businesses 00:03:37.389 --> 00:03:40.069 and consumers cautious their caution slows the 00:03:40.069 --> 00:03:42.909 economy further which makes everyone even more 00:03:42.909 --> 00:03:45.740 uncertain So folks tend to wait and see, hoping 00:03:45.740 --> 00:03:47.800 for more clarity on trade policy before making 00:03:47.800 --> 00:03:50.780 big moves. OK, let's shift gears then. Another 00:03:50.780 --> 00:03:54.060 topic that's just constantly evolving, AI regulation. 00:03:54.460 --> 00:03:56.780 Especially in the U .S., it feels like a moving 00:03:56.780 --> 00:03:59.099 target. It really does. And the U .S. picture 00:03:59.099 --> 00:04:02.680 is particularly interesting right now. You know, 00:04:02.680 --> 00:04:05.379 despite a lot of talk and various bills being 00:04:05.379 --> 00:04:07.419 introduced back in 2024 about accountability 00:04:07.419 --> 00:04:09.900 and transparency. Right. There was a lot of buzz. 00:04:10.039 --> 00:04:12.599 There's still no single comprehensive federal 00:04:12.599 --> 00:04:15.349 law. governing AI. But wasn't there an executive 00:04:15.349 --> 00:04:18.449 order from the previous administration? On safe 00:04:18.449 --> 00:04:21.610 and trustworthy AI. There was, yes. EO 14 and 00:04:21.610 --> 00:04:24.529 110, that was a significant step. But then came 00:04:24.529 --> 00:04:27.670 a major policy pivot in January 2025 under the 00:04:27.670 --> 00:04:30.410 current administration. A new executive order, 00:04:30.550 --> 00:04:32.990 this one titled Removing Barriers to American 00:04:32.990 --> 00:04:36.389 Leadership in AI, explicitly rescinded the previous 00:04:36.389 --> 00:04:39.569 one. Ah, okay. So a fundamentally different philosophy 00:04:39.569 --> 00:04:42.050 driving policy now. Pretty much, yeah. The new 00:04:42.050 --> 00:04:46.029 order puts the priority squarely on fostering 00:04:46.029 --> 00:04:48.769 AI innovation. ensuring U .S. competitiveness. 00:04:49.089 --> 00:04:51.689 It basically instructs federal agencies to go 00:04:51.689 --> 00:04:53.930 find and remove policies that might hinder American 00:04:53.930 --> 00:04:57.290 leadership in AI. So it's a shift away from prioritizing 00:04:57.290 --> 00:04:59.509 risk mitigation towards accelerating development. 00:04:59.889 --> 00:05:01.750 And with the federal government stepping back 00:05:01.750 --> 00:05:03.790 from comprehensive regulation, what's happening 00:05:03.790 --> 00:05:05.329 at the state level? Is it filling the vacuum? 00:05:05.629 --> 00:05:07.050 That's exactly what we're seeing. It's becoming 00:05:07.050 --> 00:05:09.149 a real patchwork, much like we saw with data 00:05:09.149 --> 00:05:11.329 privacy laws years ago. States are stepping in. 00:05:11.389 --> 00:05:14.110 In 2024 alone, at least 45 states introduced 00:05:14.110 --> 00:05:18.050 AI -related bills. Forty -five. And 31 actually 00:05:18.050 --> 00:05:21.329 enacted laws or resolutions. So a huge amount 00:05:21.329 --> 00:05:23.810 of state level activity. Can you give us a flavor 00:05:23.810 --> 00:05:26.189 of what kinds of laws states are passing? Are 00:05:26.189 --> 00:05:27.850 they all doing the same thing? Oh, definitely 00:05:27.850 --> 00:05:30.939 not. It's quite varied. For example, Colorado 00:05:30.939 --> 00:05:34.060 passed a fairly broad law. It requires companies 00:05:34.060 --> 00:05:36.899 to use reasonable care to avoid algorithmic bias 00:05:36.899 --> 00:05:39.259 in systems considered high risk, and they have 00:05:39.259 --> 00:05:41.259 to tell consumers when they're interacting with 00:05:41.259 --> 00:05:44.540 one. New Hampshire went narrower, specifically 00:05:44.540 --> 00:05:47.060 criminalizing malicious deep fakes, you know, 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:50.339 those fake videos or audio clips. Tennessee passed 00:05:50.339 --> 00:05:53.560 the LVS Act, which is focused on unauthorized 00:05:53.560 --> 00:05:56.360 AI simulations of a person's voice or likeness, 00:05:56.459 --> 00:05:58.720 particularly aimed at the entertainment world. 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:01.060 Right. The likeness issue. And California enacted 00:06:01.060 --> 00:06:04.379 a whole package in late 2024. One law requires 00:06:04.379 --> 00:06:07.240 clear labeling for AI generated content in political 00:06:07.240 --> 00:06:10.339 ads. Another, the AI Transparency Act, kicks 00:06:10.339 --> 00:06:14.000 in January 2026 and mandates disclosure if an 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:16.680 online service with over a million users is using 00:06:16.680 --> 00:06:19.100 AI to generate content. So it's a real mix. That 00:06:19.100 --> 00:06:21.300 must be, well, complicated for businesses operating 00:06:21.300 --> 00:06:24.730 nationwide. Incredibly complicated. If you're 00:06:24.730 --> 00:06:27.670 a company using AI, you now have this fragmented 00:06:27.670 --> 00:06:30.350 landscape to navigate. You need really adaptable 00:06:30.350 --> 00:06:33.110 compliance strategies. And ironically, the federal 00:06:33.110 --> 00:06:35.029 push for deregulation might actually encourage 00:06:35.029 --> 00:06:38.129 more state laws as states try to address specific 00:06:38.129 --> 00:06:40.470 risks they see. So you end up with this kind 00:06:40.470 --> 00:06:43.750 of dual track. Federal focus on innovation, states 00:06:43.750 --> 00:06:46.910 tackling specific harms. Exactly. And for businesses, 00:06:46.990 --> 00:06:49.290 it means things like agile governance, building 00:06:49.290 --> 00:06:51.750 privacy into AI systems from the start, that 00:06:51.750 --> 00:06:54.410 privacy by design concept, and investing in things 00:06:54.410 --> 00:06:57.550 like privacy enhancing technologies, PETs. It's 00:06:57.550 --> 00:06:59.649 not just about ticking legal boxes anymore. It's 00:06:59.649 --> 00:07:01.810 becoming crucial for building trust and actually 00:07:01.810 --> 00:07:04.329 leading in the AI space. Okay, let's pivot again. 00:07:04.430 --> 00:07:07.129 Climate policy. The US has set some really ambitious 00:07:07.129 --> 00:07:09.629 goals. Are we seeing concrete actions to back 00:07:09.629 --> 00:07:12.529 those up? Yes, definitely. There's a stated commitment 00:07:12.529 --> 00:07:14.870 to a whole of society approach aiming for that 00:07:14.870 --> 00:07:16.889 net zero economy. The big targets are still there. 00:07:17.189 --> 00:07:20.110 61, 66 percent emissions reduction below 2005 00:07:20.110 --> 00:07:24.350 levels by 2035, net zero by 2050, 50 percent 00:07:24.350 --> 00:07:27.949 EV sales by 2030 and 100 percent clean electricity 00:07:27.949 --> 00:07:30.230 by 2035. There's a particular focus on methane. 00:07:30.370 --> 00:07:32.790 Right, because reducing methane is seen as one 00:07:32.790 --> 00:07:35.550 of the quickest ways to slow down new term warming. 00:07:35.750 --> 00:07:37.910 Now, the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA, that 00:07:37.910 --> 00:07:39.949 always comes up. How significant has it been? 00:07:40.170 --> 00:07:43.149 It's been huge, widely seen as the most aggressive 00:07:43.149 --> 00:07:46.410 climate action the U .S. has ever taken. Projections 00:07:46.410 --> 00:07:49.069 show it delivering about a billion tons of greenhouse 00:07:49.069 --> 00:07:52.250 gas reductions by 2030. A billion tons. Yeah. 00:07:52.370 --> 00:07:55.230 Putting the U .S. on a path towards that 50 percent 00:07:55.230 --> 00:07:58.670 emissions cut by 2030 target. A lot of that comes 00:07:58.670 --> 00:08:01.529 from the tax credits boosting clean energy. The 00:08:01.529 --> 00:08:03.670 share of clean electricity is expected to jump 00:08:03.670 --> 00:08:07.269 dramatically from maybe 42 percent in 2022 up 00:08:07.269 --> 00:08:10.629 to somewhere between 72 percent in. 81 % by 2030. 00:08:10.930 --> 00:08:12.810 And that's working alongside other legislation. 00:08:13.110 --> 00:08:15.610 Yes. The bipartisan infrastructure law is also 00:08:15.610 --> 00:08:18.769 key, allocating over $26 billion for nature -based 00:08:18.769 --> 00:08:20.790 climate solutions. And then you have the EPA 00:08:20.790 --> 00:08:23.389 actively setting new rules. What kind of rules 00:08:23.389 --> 00:08:25.410 has the EPA finalized recently? These are all 00:08:25.410 --> 00:08:27.889 important ones. In March 2024, they finalized 00:08:27.889 --> 00:08:30.069 tougher emissions standards for new cars and 00:08:30.069 --> 00:08:32.990 light trucks, starting with model year 2027 and 00:08:32.990 --> 00:08:36.070 phasing in through 2032. Huge potential for health 00:08:36.070 --> 00:08:38.409 benefits, climate action, and cost savings there. 00:08:38.669 --> 00:08:41.649 Also in March 2024, they finalized phase three 00:08:41.649 --> 00:08:44.769 standards for heavy duty vehicles like big trucks, 00:08:44.870 --> 00:08:48.250 also starting in model year 2027. These are performance 00:08:48.250 --> 00:08:50.990 based technology neutral standards. And what 00:08:50.990 --> 00:08:53.289 about methane specifically from oil and gas? 00:08:53.509 --> 00:08:56.029 Big moves there, too. A final rule from late 00:08:56.029 --> 00:08:58.710 2023 aims to cut methane and other pollution 00:08:58.710 --> 00:09:01.269 from oil and gas operations, importantly, including 00:09:01.269 --> 00:09:04.250 existing sources, not just new ones. And then 00:09:04.250 --> 00:09:07.389 in November 2024, they finalized the waste emissions 00:09:07.389 --> 00:09:11.539 chart. The WEC. Yeah, it basically puts a charge 00:09:11.539 --> 00:09:13.559 on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities 00:09:13.559 --> 00:09:16.200 if they exceed certain levels. So a direct financial 00:09:16.200 --> 00:09:18.299 incentive to plug leaks and reduce emissions. 00:09:18.700 --> 00:09:21.200 So it really is a combination of carrots, the 00:09:21.200 --> 00:09:24.159 IRA tax credits, and sticks the EPA regulations. 00:09:24.460 --> 00:09:26.539 Exactly. And it's spurred significant private 00:09:26.539 --> 00:09:30.080 investment, too. Over $240 billion in clean energy 00:09:30.080 --> 00:09:33.279 manufacturing since early 2021. Projections show 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:35.519 wind power tripling and solar power increasing 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:37.940 maybe seven or eightfold by 2021. 2030. It's 00:09:37.940 --> 00:09:39.980 a comprehensive strategy aiming for decarbonization, 00:09:40.299 --> 00:09:42.679 energy transformation, and resilience. All right, 00:09:42.700 --> 00:09:44.980 let's broaden the lens now and look at the global 00:09:44.980 --> 00:09:47.340 picture. How's the world economy looking as we 00:09:47.340 --> 00:09:50.720 head into the second half of 2025? Precarious 00:09:50.720 --> 00:09:53.519 is probably a fair word. The global outlook is 00:09:53.519 --> 00:09:56.240 marked by a lot of uncertainty and increasingly 00:09:56.240 --> 00:10:00.019 fragmentation. Global growth projections for 00:10:00.019 --> 00:10:03.679 2025 have been weakened. Undessa, the UN's economic 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:06.440 department, sees growth slowing compared to to 00:10:06.440 --> 00:10:09.340 2024, and they've revised their forecasts downward. 00:10:09.659 --> 00:10:12.379 This slowdown is expected to affect both developed 00:10:12.379 --> 00:10:14.460 and developing countries. And what are the main 00:10:14.460 --> 00:10:17.100 culprits globally? Similar factors to the U .S. 00:10:17.179 --> 00:10:19.480 To a large extent, yes. Those higher tariffs, 00:10:19.639 --> 00:10:21.639 especially from the U .S., are casting a long 00:10:21.639 --> 00:10:24.580 shadow. They strain global supply chains, push 00:10:24.580 --> 00:10:27.080 up costs worldwide, make businesses hesitant 00:10:27.080 --> 00:10:29.799 to invest, and add volatility to financial markets. 00:10:30.000 --> 00:10:32.659 And beyond tariffs, just the general weakening 00:10:32.659 --> 00:10:35.240 of global trade and investment flows is dragging 00:10:35.240 --> 00:10:37.860 things down. This hits developing countries particularly 00:10:37.860 --> 00:10:40.220 hard. They face lower demand for their exports, 00:10:40.399 --> 00:10:42.820 potentially lower commodity prices, higher credit 00:10:42.820 --> 00:10:44.879 conditions, and often high debt burdens already. 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:48.059 So those domestic policies in major economies 00:10:48.059 --> 00:10:51.740 really do ripple outwards. How's a major bloc 00:10:51.740 --> 00:10:55.409 like the EU weathering this? Well, the EU's own 00:10:55.409 --> 00:10:59.049 spring 2025 forecast reflects these global headwinds. 00:10:59.049 --> 00:11:01.309 They've also had to downgrade their growth projections 00:11:01.309 --> 00:11:03.450 for the year. They cite the increased tariffs 00:11:03.450 --> 00:11:05.389 and the uncertainty around U .S. trade policy 00:11:05.389 --> 00:11:08.090 as major factors. They do expect inflation to 00:11:08.090 --> 00:11:10.009 come down a bit faster, maybe, but the trade 00:11:10.009 --> 00:11:13.370 tensions are a definite drag. And other forecasters 00:11:13.370 --> 00:11:16.350 see a similar picture. Generally, yes. Munich 00:11:16.350 --> 00:11:18.450 Re, for instance, expects global growth to be 00:11:18.450 --> 00:11:21.590 roughly similar to 2024 overall. But, and this 00:11:21.590 --> 00:11:24.509 is key, with big differences between major economies. 00:11:24.730 --> 00:11:27.549 They see decent growth in the U .S. still and 00:11:27.549 --> 00:11:30.269 emerging markets doing OK. But the eurozone lagging, 00:11:30.269 --> 00:11:32.230 especially Germany and China's growth, continuing 00:11:32.230 --> 00:11:34.710 to slow down. And hanging over all this economic 00:11:34.710 --> 00:11:55.810 forecasting is the geopolitical situation. What 00:11:55.810 --> 00:12:08.610 do you mean? undermining progress on things like 00:12:08.610 --> 00:12:10.929 sustainable development goals and making inequality 00:12:10.929 --> 00:12:13.990 worse. And that persistent weakness in global 00:12:13.990 --> 00:12:16.409 investment we mentioned, that's a real drag on 00:12:16.409 --> 00:12:19.210 long -term prospects too. Speaking of geopolitics, 00:12:19.210 --> 00:12:21.710 it feels like more than just uncertainty. The 00:12:21.710 --> 00:12:24.230 actual structure of global trade seems to be 00:12:24.230 --> 00:12:26.850 shifting, realigning. That's a very sharp observation. 00:12:27.269 --> 00:12:30.309 2025 is really defined by political instability, 00:12:30.690 --> 00:12:34.629 social unrest in places, and these intense geopolitical 00:12:34.629 --> 00:12:37.230 rivalries that are actively reshaping trade patterns. 00:12:37.970 --> 00:12:40.529 Coface, the credit insurer, noted that trade 00:12:40.529 --> 00:12:42.690 partnerships between Western countries are shrinking 00:12:42.690 --> 00:12:45.230 and partnerships between, say, China and Russia 00:12:45.230 --> 00:12:47.690 are also shrinking. But the contraction between 00:12:47.690 --> 00:12:50.250 those blocks is happening even faster. So this 00:12:50.250 --> 00:12:52.929 talk of trade wars returning, it's not just talk. 00:12:53.450 --> 00:12:55.570 It feels increasingly tangible. You have the 00:12:55.570 --> 00:12:57.769 U .S. protectionist posture towards China, but 00:12:57.769 --> 00:12:59.690 also towards traditional allies like Canada, 00:12:59.789 --> 00:13:02.750 Mexico, the EU, the threat of new tariffs, the 00:13:02.750 --> 00:13:05.769 fear of retaliation. It's very real. Lazard's 00:13:05.769 --> 00:13:07.730 geopolitical advisory group recently pointed 00:13:07.730 --> 00:13:09.929 out that some proposed tariffs it implemented 00:13:09.929 --> 00:13:12.490 even partially could just completely upend the 00:13:12.490 --> 00:13:14.929 global trade system and accelerate this rewiring 00:13:14.929 --> 00:13:17.049 of supply chains. It sounds like trade policy 00:13:17.049 --> 00:13:19.590 is becoming a primary weapon in a larger strategic 00:13:19.590 --> 00:13:22.139 game between the major powers. That's exactly 00:13:22.139 --> 00:13:25.200 it. You have the big three, China, the U .S., 00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:28.340 Europe engaged in this geostrategic race, and 00:13:28.340 --> 00:13:31.759 trade tools like tariffs, export controls, restrictions 00:13:31.759 --> 00:13:35.340 on tech transfer, they're key instruments. We're 00:13:35.340 --> 00:13:37.580 seeing more economic security measures, especially 00:13:37.580 --> 00:13:39.980 between the U .S. and China, but it affects everyone. 00:13:40.220 --> 00:13:42.259 What does that mean for businesses on the ground? 00:13:42.600 --> 00:13:45.039 it means they have to fundamentally rethink things 00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:48.240 import export strategies where they invest their 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:50.539 industrial footprint it increasingly depends 00:13:50.539 --> 00:13:52.960 on which political sphere they're operating in 00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:55.679 it pushes towards Shorter, simpler supply chains 00:13:55.679 --> 00:13:58.559 and this idea of friend -shoring, prioritizing 00:13:58.559 --> 00:14:00.720 trade with politically aligned countries. And 00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:02.580 Europe finds itself caught in the middle of this. 00:14:02.759 --> 00:14:05.320 To some extent, yes. The EU is dealing with its 00:14:05.320 --> 00:14:08.120 own pressures, high energy costs, intense competition 00:14:08.120 --> 00:14:10.940 from both the U .S. and China. That contributes 00:14:10.940 --> 00:14:14.179 to those weaker growth forecasts. And potential 00:14:14.179 --> 00:14:16.720 U .S. tariffs on Europe or diverted Chinese goods 00:14:16.720 --> 00:14:18.679 flooding their market could make things tougher. 00:14:18.840 --> 00:14:21.549 Plus the security dimension with Ukraine. Exactly. 00:14:21.750 --> 00:14:24.549 A changing U .S. approach there has massive implications 00:14:24.549 --> 00:14:27.389 for European security. And many EU countries 00:14:27.389 --> 00:14:29.990 face fiscal constraints, like Germany's debt 00:14:29.990 --> 00:14:32.490 break, limiting their options to respond. It 00:14:32.490 --> 00:14:34.889 forces difficult choices. And we can't forget 00:14:34.889 --> 00:14:37.190 the physical disruptions to trade, like in the 00:14:37.190 --> 00:14:39.490 Red Sea. Absolutely critical. Ongoing conflicts. 00:14:39.649 --> 00:14:42.049 Ukraine, Middle East, Sudan keep pressure on 00:14:42.049 --> 00:14:44.990 trade security. The Red Sea and Suez Canal are 00:14:44.990 --> 00:14:47.950 major choke points. Houthi attacks caused maritime 00:14:47.950 --> 00:14:50.809 traffic there to plummet in late 2020. forcing 00:14:50.809 --> 00:14:53.509 ships the long way around Africa right the Cape 00:14:53.509 --> 00:14:56.250 of Good Hope route much longer much more expensive 00:14:56.250 --> 00:14:58.809 it directly hits supply chains increases costs 00:14:58.809 --> 00:15:01.929 adds operational risk it really paints a picture 00:15:01.929 --> 00:15:06.039 of a world force to adapt to lasting geopolitical 00:15:06.039 --> 00:15:08.700 shifts. It does. Add in rising populism in Europe, 00:15:08.740 --> 00:15:11.279 more social unrest, and geopolitical risk isn't 00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:13.419 just a temporary issue anymore. It's a lasting 00:15:13.419 --> 00:15:15.879 reality. Companies have to navigate this more 00:15:15.879 --> 00:15:18.480 multipolar world with regionalized trade and 00:15:18.480 --> 00:15:20.740 disrupted global strategies becoming the norm. 00:15:20.960 --> 00:15:23.519 Okay, let's circle back to AI regulation, but 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:26.039 look at it globally this time. We talked about 00:15:26.039 --> 00:15:27.940 the U .S. patchwork. How does that compare to 00:15:27.940 --> 00:15:29.779 what other regions are doing? It's fascinating, 00:15:29.960 --> 00:15:32.159 really. The global AI regulation scene is moving 00:15:32.159 --> 00:15:35.340 fast, but it's definitely fragmented. Everyone's 00:15:35.340 --> 00:15:37.200 trying to strike that balance between encouraging 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:40.019 innovation and managing the risk safety ethics 00:15:40.019 --> 00:15:43.399 bias. And the EU's AI Act seems like the most 00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:45.919 comprehensive effort so far. It certainly is. 00:15:46.039 --> 00:15:49.259 It was formally adopted mid -2024. Most rules 00:15:49.259 --> 00:15:52.720 come into force August 2026 after a phase in. 00:15:53.019 --> 00:15:55.919 It's the world's first... major legal framework 00:15:55.919 --> 00:15:58.440 for AI. How does it work, basically? It uses 00:15:58.440 --> 00:16:01.240 a risk -based approach. Certain AI practices 00:16:01.240 --> 00:16:03.820 are just banned outright things deemed unacceptable, 00:16:04.179 --> 00:16:07.200 like real -time public biometric ID by law enforcement 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:10.340 or social scoring. Then systems classified as 00:16:10.340 --> 00:16:12.879 high risk face really strict requirements, risk 00:16:12.879 --> 00:16:15.279 management, data quality, transparency, human 00:16:15.279 --> 00:16:18.019 oversight, the works. It really sets a high bar 00:16:18.019 --> 00:16:20.500 and is seen as a potential global standard. How 00:16:20.500 --> 00:16:23.710 does that contrast with, say, the UK? The UK 00:16:23.710 --> 00:16:26.750 has taken a lighter touch, a more pro -innovation 00:16:26.750 --> 00:16:29.850 approach, at least so far. Instead of a big new 00:16:29.850 --> 00:16:33.090 AI law, they've opted for empowering existing 00:16:33.090 --> 00:16:35.909 regulators in different sectors, guided by general 00:16:35.909 --> 00:16:38.230 principles like safety, transparency, fairness, 00:16:38.490 --> 00:16:41.269 accountability. But, you know, there's talk a 00:16:41.269 --> 00:16:44.610 formal UK AI Act might still emerge, maybe influenced 00:16:44.610 --> 00:16:46.809 by what the EU and others are doing. In Canada. 00:16:47.289 --> 00:16:48.830 Weren't they working on something? They were. 00:16:48.950 --> 00:16:51.309 The Artificial Intelligence and Data Act, AIDA, 00:16:51.429 --> 00:16:54.929 was part of a larger bill, C -27. AIDA aimed 00:16:54.929 --> 00:16:57.549 to regulate high -impact AI systems requiring 00:16:57.549 --> 00:17:00.950 assessments, bias mitigation. But then Parliament 00:17:00.950 --> 00:17:04.509 prorogued, stopped its session in January 2025. 00:17:05.130 --> 00:17:07.750 So the bill died. Perfectively, yes. AIDA would 00:17:07.750 --> 00:17:10.029 need to be completely reintroduced in a new session 00:17:10.029 --> 00:17:11.930 to move forward. So Canadian federal regulation 00:17:11.930 --> 00:17:14.009 is currently stalled. What about China? They're 00:17:14.009 --> 00:17:16.710 obviously a huge player in AI development. Absolutely. 00:17:16.910 --> 00:17:18.890 And they've been very active regulators building 00:17:18.890 --> 00:17:21.369 out their framework quite rapidly. The focus 00:17:21.369 --> 00:17:23.549 is very much on, let's say, safe and government 00:17:23.549 --> 00:17:26.490 supervised development. They had rules for generative 00:17:26.490 --> 00:17:28.990 AI back in 2023, and they've been adding more 00:17:28.990 --> 00:17:31.490 specifics. Like what? Well, there was a draft 00:17:31.490 --> 00:17:34.390 on security requirements for generative AI technical 00:17:34.390 --> 00:17:37.089 stuff about data and model security. And they 00:17:37.089 --> 00:17:39.410 finalized rules, effective September 1st, 2025, 00:17:39.829 --> 00:17:42.859 that mandate labeling for all AI generated. content 00:17:42.859 --> 00:17:45.799 online. Plus, their National AI Governance Committee 00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:48.980 put out a broad AI safety governance framework 00:17:48.980 --> 00:17:51.849 last September, principles like people -centered, 00:17:52.069 --> 00:17:55.470 AI for good, emphasizing ethics, transparency, 00:17:55.990 --> 00:17:58.450 risk monitoring. So quite a bit happening there. 00:17:58.529 --> 00:18:01.349 Any other regions making notable moves? Brazil 00:18:01.349 --> 00:18:03.650 is one to watch. Their Senate approved a comprehensive 00:18:03.650 --> 00:18:07.170 AI bill in December 2024. It looks somewhat similar 00:18:07.170 --> 00:18:10.109 to the EU's risk -based model. If that gets fully 00:18:10.109 --> 00:18:12.390 enacted, it would be one of the first big AI 00:18:12.390 --> 00:18:15.309 laws in Latin America. So this global fragmentation, 00:18:15.490 --> 00:18:17.809 much like the U .S. state -level situation, really 00:18:17.809 --> 00:18:19.809 creates challenges for international companies, 00:18:19.910 --> 00:18:21.609 right? Huge challenge. If you're developing or 00:18:21.609 --> 00:18:24.250 deploying AI globally, you face this incredibly 00:18:24.250 --> 00:18:26.769 complex, constantly shifting regulatory map. 00:18:26.950 --> 00:18:29.690 It really forces organizations to be agile in 00:18:29.690 --> 00:18:31.930 their governance and, again, to invest in things 00:18:31.930 --> 00:18:34.329 like PETs to manage data across different legal 00:18:34.329 --> 00:18:37.309 regimes. And the underlying concerns about data, 00:18:37.470 --> 00:18:41.829 bias, the black box nature of some AI, those 00:18:41.829 --> 00:18:44.690 are universal. Exactly. It highlights the need 00:18:44.690 --> 00:18:48.369 for really robust data privacy governance, strong 00:18:48.369 --> 00:18:51.109 information security, maybe aligning with international 00:18:51.109 --> 00:18:54.710 standards like ISO 42001. It's not just about 00:18:54.710 --> 00:18:57.029 compliance anymore. Companies need to proactively 00:18:57.029 --> 00:18:59.470 build accountability and ethics into their AI 00:18:59.470 --> 00:19:02.609 to gain trust and really lead. Okay, finally, 00:19:02.650 --> 00:19:04.569 let's shift away from policy and economics for 00:19:04.569 --> 00:19:06.769 a moment. Amidst all this complexity, science 00:19:06.769 --> 00:19:09.170 keeps marching forward. What are some of the 00:19:09.170 --> 00:19:11.170 major breakthroughs that have caught your eye 00:19:11.170 --> 00:19:13.470 recently? Oh, absolutely. It's important to remember 00:19:13.470 --> 00:19:16.349 that fundamental discovery continues. Rockefeller 00:19:16.349 --> 00:19:18.390 University highlighted some really fascinating 00:19:18.390 --> 00:19:21.009 work coming out of their labs in 2024, for example. 00:19:21.269 --> 00:19:23.190 Like what? Anything related to CRISPR, the gene 00:19:23.190 --> 00:19:25.730 editing tool? Yes. Really interesting stuff. 00:19:26.029 --> 00:19:28.450 Luciano Merafini's lab, working with folks at 00:19:28.450 --> 00:19:30.869 Sloan Kettering, found a totally new capability 00:19:30.869 --> 00:19:33.589 for some CRISPR systems. We know CRISPR can edit 00:19:33.589 --> 00:19:35.250 genes, right? Right. That's the famous part. 00:19:35.519 --> 00:19:37.440 Well, they found these systems can also act like 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:40.980 a sort of molecular fumigator. They produce toxic 00:19:40.980 --> 00:19:43.779 molecules that specifically target invading viruses 00:19:43.779 --> 00:19:47.380 or plasmids and essentially trigger the infected 00:19:47.380 --> 00:19:50.700 cell to shut down. It's described as a completely 00:19:50.700 --> 00:19:54.130 brand new type of CRISPR chemistry. Wow. So it's 00:19:54.130 --> 00:19:56.130 not just editing, it's defense too. Exactly. 00:19:56.349 --> 00:19:58.750 It suggests bacteria have diverse immune strategies 00:19:58.750 --> 00:20:01.210 we didn't know about, and it might even open 00:20:01.210 --> 00:20:03.609 up possibilities for new diagnostic tools or 00:20:03.609 --> 00:20:05.950 therapies based on this mechanism. That's incredible. 00:20:06.170 --> 00:20:07.890 What else stood out? Anything in neuroscience? 00:20:08.410 --> 00:20:11.069 Yeah. Jeffrey Friedman's lab identified a neural 00:20:11.069 --> 00:20:14.089 circuit in mice, just three brain cells. Apparently 00:20:14.089 --> 00:20:16.309 that links the feeling of hunger directly to 00:20:16.309 --> 00:20:19.430 the physical movement of the jaw. They also found 00:20:19.430 --> 00:20:21.990 a new type of neuron that seems to quickly counteract 00:20:21.990 --> 00:20:25.849 hunger. promoting satiety or fullness so getting 00:20:25.849 --> 00:20:28.029 closer to understanding the wiring behind appetite 00:20:28.029 --> 00:20:30.670 precisely it gives us fundamental insights into 00:20:30.670 --> 00:20:33.190 how appetite is regulated which could down the 00:20:33.190 --> 00:20:35.390 line help inform treatments for things like eating 00:20:35.390 --> 00:20:37.750 disorders or obesity very cool I think I also 00:20:37.750 --> 00:20:40.190 saw something about telomeres and aging You did! 00:20:40.470 --> 00:20:43.250 Tisha Delonge's team figured out how two specific 00:20:43.250 --> 00:20:46.089 enzymes work together to properly maintain telomeres, 00:20:46.109 --> 00:20:48.170 those protective caps on the ends of our chromosomes. 00:20:48.849 --> 00:20:51.829 One enzyme, telomerase, stops them from shortening 00:20:51.829 --> 00:20:55.130 too much, but this other complex, CST -polvermes, 00:20:55.349 --> 00:20:57.990 manages the other DNA strand during replication 00:20:57.990 --> 00:21:01.670 to ensure the whole telomere stays intact. Why 00:21:01.670 --> 00:21:03.710 that important? Understanding telomere maintenance 00:21:03.710 --> 00:21:07.049 is key to understanding cellular aging and uncontrolled 00:21:07.049 --> 00:21:09.710 replication, like in cancer. So these insights 00:21:09.710 --> 00:21:11.829 could be really significant for age -related 00:21:11.829 --> 00:21:14.809 diseases and cancer research. Speaking of cancer, 00:21:14.950 --> 00:21:17.240 any breakthroughs there? Kevance Bersoy's lab 00:21:17.240 --> 00:21:20.180 found something fascinating. Certain fats or 00:21:20.180 --> 00:21:22.660 lipids can act like fatty shields for cancer 00:21:22.660 --> 00:21:25.420 cells. They essentially hoard other molecules 00:21:25.420 --> 00:21:28.099 called glycosphingolipids, which seems to hide 00:21:28.099 --> 00:21:30.359 inflammatory signals and dampen the immune response 00:21:30.359 --> 00:21:32.980 against the tumor. So a potential new vulnerability 00:21:32.980 --> 00:21:35.819 to target. Exactly. It points to new metabolic 00:21:35.819 --> 00:21:38.559 weaknesses in cancer cells that might be exploited 00:21:38.559 --> 00:21:41.660 therapeutically. Amazing. Any other neuroscience 00:21:41.660 --> 00:21:44.799 leaps? Yes. The Victoria Lab developed a tool 00:21:44.799 --> 00:21:47.579 called eulophistic. It's described as a universal 00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:49.519 tool for tracking cell -to -cell interactions 00:21:49.519 --> 00:21:52.960 inside a living organism in real time. This is 00:21:52.960 --> 00:21:54.920 getting us closer to understanding things like 00:21:54.920 --> 00:21:57.500 dendritic translation. Which is related to memory 00:21:57.500 --> 00:21:59.559 formation, right? Right, considered kind of a 00:21:59.559 --> 00:22:02.660 holy grail for memory research. It involves coordinated 00:22:02.660 --> 00:22:05.279 neuron activity and making proteins right where 00:22:05.279 --> 00:22:08.180 they're needed at the synapse. Tools like eulipistic 00:22:08.180 --> 00:22:11.160 are critical for figuring out these complex processes, 00:22:11.579 --> 00:22:14.180 which is vital for tackling neurological disorders. 00:22:14.480 --> 00:22:16.839 Just incredible progress. Anything else? One 00:22:16.839 --> 00:22:18.779 more that's really neat, from Vanessa Ruda's 00:22:18.779 --> 00:22:21.400 lab studying fruit fly mating. They figured out 00:22:21.400 --> 00:22:24.180 how flies evolve their courtship rituals so efficiently, 00:22:24.480 --> 00:22:26.799 it seems they use a kind of plug -and -play mechanism 00:22:26.799 --> 00:22:29.369 in the brain. Plug and play? How? They can plug 00:22:29.369 --> 00:22:32.289 diverse sensory inputs like maybe detecting a 00:22:32.289 --> 00:22:35.470 new pheromone into existing conserved brain pathways 00:22:35.470 --> 00:22:38.210 that control behavior. This lets them rapidly 00:22:38.210 --> 00:22:40.349 tweak their courtship rituals over evolutionary 00:22:40.349 --> 00:22:43.069 time. It's a cool model for understanding how 00:22:43.069 --> 00:22:45.650 complex behaviors evolve in general. It's just 00:22:45.650 --> 00:22:47.950 remarkable the breadth of discovery happening 00:22:47.950 --> 00:22:51.670 across genetics, neuroscience, cancer, evolution. 00:22:52.009 --> 00:22:54.109 It really is. It underscores that relentless 00:22:54.109 --> 00:22:57.170 pursuit of knowledge. Even with all the global 00:22:57.170 --> 00:23:00.089 turmoil, science keeps pushing boundaries and 00:23:00.089 --> 00:23:02.410 reshaping our understanding of life and health. 00:23:02.690 --> 00:23:05.130 So wrapping up this deep dive, it's just striking 00:23:05.130 --> 00:23:07.190 how interconnected everything we've discussed 00:23:07.190 --> 00:23:09.910 really is. You've got the U .S. economic slowdown. 00:23:10.349 --> 00:23:12.529 tied to trade policy. Right, which has global 00:23:12.529 --> 00:23:15.309 ripples. You have this fragmented AI regulation 00:23:15.309 --> 00:23:18.470 picture, both domestically and globally. Contrasting 00:23:18.470 --> 00:23:21.490 with these big concerted pushes on climate policy. 00:23:21.750 --> 00:23:24.029 All happening against a backdrop of significant 00:23:24.029 --> 00:23:26.529 geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty 00:23:26.529 --> 00:23:30.400 worldwide. And yet underneath it all, these incredible 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:33.400 scientific leaps forward. Exactly. The big takeaway 00:23:33.400 --> 00:23:35.980 for me is just how profoundly national decisions, 00:23:36.299 --> 00:23:38.619 especially on trade and regulation, echo around 00:23:38.619 --> 00:23:41.180 the globe. This interplay creates really complex 00:23:41.180 --> 00:23:44.220 challenges. It really forces businesses, policymakers, 00:23:44.740 --> 00:23:47.619 everyone to be incredibly adaptable. Foresight 00:23:47.619 --> 00:23:50.420 and adaptability, yeah. So as you think about 00:23:50.420 --> 00:23:53.220 all this, maybe the question to ponder is, what 00:23:53.220 --> 00:23:55.920 are the long -term consequences of these tangled 00:23:55.920 --> 00:23:59.259 trends? How might the economic shifts, the AI 00:23:59.259 --> 00:24:02.000 rules, the climate efforts, the geopolitical 00:24:02.000 --> 00:24:04.200 realignments we've talked about, how might they 00:24:04.200 --> 00:24:07.380 shape the next defining moment? It's a powerful 00:24:07.380 --> 00:24:09.680 reminder, I think, of needing that foresight, 00:24:09.680 --> 00:24:12.559 that resilience to navigate the path ahead. Well 00:24:12.559 --> 00:24:15.099 said. A lot to keep track of. Indeed. Thanks 00:24:15.099 --> 00:24:16.319 for joining us for this Deep Dive.