keeping up with all the big global shifts. Well,
it can feel overwhelming, right? So that's what
we're here for today. We're doing a deep dive
into the key moments shaping things from, let's
say, mid -May 2025 up to now. We've boiled it
down to give you a clear sense of what's really
driving change. Yeah. And what's so interesting
about this period is how things you might think
are separate. They're actually really connected.
We're going to focus on four main interconnected
areas. OK. First, the shifts in the U .S. economy.
Then what's happening with AI regulation again
in the U .S. Third, climate policy advancements.
And finally, we'll zoom out to the global picture,
the economic outlook, geopolitics, trade, global
AI rules, and actually some pretty amazing science
news, too. Sounds good. The goal is really to
pull out the crucial insights, maybe highlight
a few things you haven't connected before. Exactly.
We want to give you the core story distilled
from a lot of different sources. All right. Let's
jump in. Starting with the U .S. economy. Seems
like 2025 brought some pretty noticeable changes.
Oh, definitely. There's been a marked slowdown.
If you look at the average annualized growth,
it dropped pretty sharply from 2 .5 percent in
2024 down to just 0 .1 percent in 2025. That's
according to the Peterson Institute. Wow. 0 .1
percent. That's basically flatlining. Pretty
much. And they also put the probability of a
recession at around 40 percent. Now, Forrester's
forecast is a little higher, maybe 1 .4 percent
real GDP growth for the year. But even that,
it's still way down from the 2 .8 percent we
saw in 2024. That is a substantial drop. So what
are the main reasons analysts are pointing to
for this cooling off? Well, the consensus really
points towards the new tariffs and the shifts
in trade policy. These things tend to put the
brakes on economic activity. How so? Well, first,
they make imported goods more expensive, something
you might have felt yourself in everyday costs.
They also disrupt supply chains that companies
have built up over years. And ultimately, they
eat away at people's real income. Right. And
maybe just as important, the constant changes,
the uncertainty around trade policy, it makes
it incredibly difficult for businesses to plan
ahead. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. If you don't
know what the rules will be, be next month or
next year, you hesitate on big investments. Exactly.
You hold off. And we saw that directly in the
numbers. Plus, there was also some added uncertainty
from federal government layoffs and the disruptions
linked to this new Department of Government Efficiency.
It just adds another layer of instability. So
how did that play out in terms of, say, consumer
spending or business investment? we saw consumer
spending growth slow down now people are still
spending more on services compared to goods that
trend continued but the overall growth rate Definitely
eased off. Remember, consumer spending is a huge
part of the U .S. economy, like 68 percent of
GDP in 2024. A massive piece. Yeah. And business
spending on fixed investments that decelerated
even more sharply. It fell from 4 .0 percent
growth down to 1 .6 percent. Companies were just
delaying decisions because of all the trade uncertainty.
And I assume trade itself slowed down to exports,
imports. Yep. Reduced growth forecasts for both
real exports and real imports and even government
spending growth. came down compared to the previous
year. So it sounds like the diagnosis is that
this slowdown wasn't necessarily about like fundamental
flaws in the economy itself that seems to be
the view yes it appears largely driven by these
specific protectionist trade policies and the
cloud of uncertainty they created rather than
say deep structural weaknesses it really highlights
that direct link between policy choices and economic
performance absolutely and it can become a self
-feeding loop you know uncertainty makes businesses
and consumers cautious their caution slows the
economy further which makes everyone even more
uncertain So folks tend to wait and see, hoping
for more clarity on trade policy before making
big moves. OK, let's shift gears then. Another
topic that's just constantly evolving, AI regulation.
Especially in the U .S., it feels like a moving
target. It really does. And the U .S. picture
is particularly interesting right now. You know,
despite a lot of talk and various bills being
introduced back in 2024 about accountability
and transparency. Right. There was a lot of buzz.
There's still no single comprehensive federal
law. governing AI. But wasn't there an executive
order from the previous administration? On safe
and trustworthy AI. There was, yes. EO 14 and
110, that was a significant step. But then came
a major policy pivot in January 2025 under the
current administration. A new executive order,
this one titled Removing Barriers to American
Leadership in AI, explicitly rescinded the previous
one. Ah, okay. So a fundamentally different philosophy
driving policy now. Pretty much, yeah. The new
order puts the priority squarely on fostering
AI innovation. ensuring U .S. competitiveness.
It basically instructs federal agencies to go
find and remove policies that might hinder American
leadership in AI. So it's a shift away from prioritizing
risk mitigation towards accelerating development.
And with the federal government stepping back
from comprehensive regulation, what's happening
at the state level? Is it filling the vacuum?
That's exactly what we're seeing. It's becoming
a real patchwork, much like we saw with data
privacy laws years ago. States are stepping in.
In 2024 alone, at least 45 states introduced
AI -related bills. Forty -five. And 31 actually
enacted laws or resolutions. So a huge amount
of state level activity. Can you give us a flavor
of what kinds of laws states are passing? Are
they all doing the same thing? Oh, definitely
not. It's quite varied. For example, Colorado
passed a fairly broad law. It requires companies
to use reasonable care to avoid algorithmic bias
in systems considered high risk, and they have
to tell consumers when they're interacting with
one. New Hampshire went narrower, specifically
criminalizing malicious deep fakes, you know,
those fake videos or audio clips. Tennessee passed
the LVS Act, which is focused on unauthorized
AI simulations of a person's voice or likeness,
particularly aimed at the entertainment world.
Right. The likeness issue. And California enacted
a whole package in late 2024. One law requires
clear labeling for AI generated content in political
ads. Another, the AI Transparency Act, kicks
in January 2026 and mandates disclosure if an
online service with over a million users is using
AI to generate content. So it's a real mix. That
must be, well, complicated for businesses operating
nationwide. Incredibly complicated. If you're
a company using AI, you now have this fragmented
landscape to navigate. You need really adaptable
compliance strategies. And ironically, the federal
push for deregulation might actually encourage
more state laws as states try to address specific
risks they see. So you end up with this kind
of dual track. Federal focus on innovation, states
tackling specific harms. Exactly. And for businesses,
it means things like agile governance, building
privacy into AI systems from the start, that
privacy by design concept, and investing in things
like privacy enhancing technologies, PETs. It's
not just about ticking legal boxes anymore. It's
becoming crucial for building trust and actually
leading in the AI space. Okay, let's pivot again.
Climate policy. The US has set some really ambitious
goals. Are we seeing concrete actions to back
those up? Yes, definitely. There's a stated commitment
to a whole of society approach aiming for that
net zero economy. The big targets are still there.
61, 66 percent emissions reduction below 2005
levels by 2035, net zero by 2050, 50 percent
EV sales by 2030 and 100 percent clean electricity
by 2035. There's a particular focus on methane.
Right, because reducing methane is seen as one
of the quickest ways to slow down new term warming.
Now, the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA, that
always comes up. How significant has it been?
It's been huge, widely seen as the most aggressive
climate action the U .S. has ever taken. Projections
show it delivering about a billion tons of greenhouse
gas reductions by 2030. A billion tons. Yeah.
Putting the U .S. on a path towards that 50 percent
emissions cut by 2030 target. A lot of that comes
from the tax credits boosting clean energy. The
share of clean electricity is expected to jump
dramatically from maybe 42 percent in 2022 up
to somewhere between 72 percent in. 81 % by 2030.
And that's working alongside other legislation.
Yes. The bipartisan infrastructure law is also
key, allocating over $26 billion for nature -based
climate solutions. And then you have the EPA
actively setting new rules. What kind of rules
has the EPA finalized recently? These are all
important ones. In March 2024, they finalized
tougher emissions standards for new cars and
light trucks, starting with model year 2027 and
phasing in through 2032. Huge potential for health
benefits, climate action, and cost savings there.
Also in March 2024, they finalized phase three
standards for heavy duty vehicles like big trucks,
also starting in model year 2027. These are performance
based technology neutral standards. And what
about methane specifically from oil and gas?
Big moves there, too. A final rule from late
2023 aims to cut methane and other pollution
from oil and gas operations, importantly, including
existing sources, not just new ones. And then
in November 2024, they finalized the waste emissions
chart. The WEC. Yeah, it basically puts a charge
on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities
if they exceed certain levels. So a direct financial
incentive to plug leaks and reduce emissions.
So it really is a combination of carrots, the
IRA tax credits, and sticks the EPA regulations.
Exactly. And it's spurred significant private
investment, too. Over $240 billion in clean energy
manufacturing since early 2021. Projections show
wind power tripling and solar power increasing
maybe seven or eightfold by 2021. 2030. It's
a comprehensive strategy aiming for decarbonization,
energy transformation, and resilience. All right,
let's broaden the lens now and look at the global
picture. How's the world economy looking as we
head into the second half of 2025? Precarious
is probably a fair word. The global outlook is
marked by a lot of uncertainty and increasingly
fragmentation. Global growth projections for
2025 have been weakened. Undessa, the UN's economic
department, sees growth slowing compared to to
2024, and they've revised their forecasts downward.
This slowdown is expected to affect both developed
and developing countries. And what are the main
culprits globally? Similar factors to the U .S.
To a large extent, yes. Those higher tariffs,
especially from the U .S., are casting a long
shadow. They strain global supply chains, push
up costs worldwide, make businesses hesitant
to invest, and add volatility to financial markets.
And beyond tariffs, just the general weakening
of global trade and investment flows is dragging
things down. This hits developing countries particularly
hard. They face lower demand for their exports,
potentially lower commodity prices, higher credit
conditions, and often high debt burdens already.
So those domestic policies in major economies
really do ripple outwards. How's a major bloc
like the EU weathering this? Well, the EU's own
spring 2025 forecast reflects these global headwinds.
They've also had to downgrade their growth projections
for the year. They cite the increased tariffs
and the uncertainty around U .S. trade policy
as major factors. They do expect inflation to
come down a bit faster, maybe, but the trade
tensions are a definite drag. And other forecasters
see a similar picture. Generally, yes. Munich
Re, for instance, expects global growth to be
roughly similar to 2024 overall. But, and this
is key, with big differences between major economies.
They see decent growth in the U .S. still and
emerging markets doing OK. But the eurozone lagging,
especially Germany and China's growth, continuing
to slow down. And hanging over all this economic
forecasting is the geopolitical situation. What
do you mean? undermining progress on things like
sustainable development goals and making inequality
worse. And that persistent weakness in global
investment we mentioned, that's a real drag on
long -term prospects too. Speaking of geopolitics,
it feels like more than just uncertainty. The
actual structure of global trade seems to be
shifting, realigning. That's a very sharp observation.
2025 is really defined by political instability,
social unrest in places, and these intense geopolitical
rivalries that are actively reshaping trade patterns.
Coface, the credit insurer, noted that trade
partnerships between Western countries are shrinking
and partnerships between, say, China and Russia
are also shrinking. But the contraction between
those blocks is happening even faster. So this
talk of trade wars returning, it's not just talk.
It feels increasingly tangible. You have the
U .S. protectionist posture towards China, but
also towards traditional allies like Canada,
Mexico, the EU, the threat of new tariffs, the
fear of retaliation. It's very real. Lazard's
geopolitical advisory group recently pointed
out that some proposed tariffs it implemented
even partially could just completely upend the
global trade system and accelerate this rewiring
of supply chains. It sounds like trade policy
is becoming a primary weapon in a larger strategic
game between the major powers. That's exactly
it. You have the big three, China, the U .S.,
Europe engaged in this geostrategic race, and
trade tools like tariffs, export controls, restrictions
on tech transfer, they're key instruments. We're
seeing more economic security measures, especially
between the U .S. and China, but it affects everyone.
What does that mean for businesses on the ground?
it means they have to fundamentally rethink things
import export strategies where they invest their
industrial footprint it increasingly depends
on which political sphere they're operating in
it pushes towards Shorter, simpler supply chains
and this idea of friend -shoring, prioritizing
trade with politically aligned countries. And
Europe finds itself caught in the middle of this.
To some extent, yes. The EU is dealing with its
own pressures, high energy costs, intense competition
from both the U .S. and China. That contributes
to those weaker growth forecasts. And potential
U .S. tariffs on Europe or diverted Chinese goods
flooding their market could make things tougher.
Plus the security dimension with Ukraine. Exactly.
A changing U .S. approach there has massive implications
for European security. And many EU countries
face fiscal constraints, like Germany's debt
break, limiting their options to respond. It
forces difficult choices. And we can't forget
the physical disruptions to trade, like in the
Red Sea. Absolutely critical. Ongoing conflicts.
Ukraine, Middle East, Sudan keep pressure on
trade security. The Red Sea and Suez Canal are
major choke points. Houthi attacks caused maritime
traffic there to plummet in late 2020. forcing
ships the long way around Africa right the Cape
of Good Hope route much longer much more expensive
it directly hits supply chains increases costs
adds operational risk it really paints a picture
of a world force to adapt to lasting geopolitical
shifts. It does. Add in rising populism in Europe,
more social unrest, and geopolitical risk isn't
just a temporary issue anymore. It's a lasting
reality. Companies have to navigate this more
multipolar world with regionalized trade and
disrupted global strategies becoming the norm.
Okay, let's circle back to AI regulation, but
look at it globally this time. We talked about
the U .S. patchwork. How does that compare to
what other regions are doing? It's fascinating,
really. The global AI regulation scene is moving
fast, but it's definitely fragmented. Everyone's
trying to strike that balance between encouraging
innovation and managing the risk safety ethics
bias. And the EU's AI Act seems like the most
comprehensive effort so far. It certainly is.
It was formally adopted mid -2024. Most rules
come into force August 2026 after a phase in.
It's the world's first... major legal framework
for AI. How does it work, basically? It uses
a risk -based approach. Certain AI practices
are just banned outright things deemed unacceptable,
like real -time public biometric ID by law enforcement
or social scoring. Then systems classified as
high risk face really strict requirements, risk
management, data quality, transparency, human
oversight, the works. It really sets a high bar
and is seen as a potential global standard. How
does that contrast with, say, the UK? The UK
has taken a lighter touch, a more pro -innovation
approach, at least so far. Instead of a big new
AI law, they've opted for empowering existing
regulators in different sectors, guided by general
principles like safety, transparency, fairness,
accountability. But, you know, there's talk a
formal UK AI Act might still emerge, maybe influenced
by what the EU and others are doing. In Canada.
Weren't they working on something? They were.
The Artificial Intelligence and Data Act, AIDA,
was part of a larger bill, C -27. AIDA aimed
to regulate high -impact AI systems requiring
assessments, bias mitigation. But then Parliament
prorogued, stopped its session in January 2025.
So the bill died. Perfectively, yes. AIDA would
need to be completely reintroduced in a new session
to move forward. So Canadian federal regulation
is currently stalled. What about China? They're
obviously a huge player in AI development. Absolutely.
And they've been very active regulators building
out their framework quite rapidly. The focus
is very much on, let's say, safe and government
supervised development. They had rules for generative
AI back in 2023, and they've been adding more
specifics. Like what? Well, there was a draft
on security requirements for generative AI technical
stuff about data and model security. And they
finalized rules, effective September 1st, 2025,
that mandate labeling for all AI generated. content
online. Plus, their National AI Governance Committee
put out a broad AI safety governance framework
last September, principles like people -centered,
AI for good, emphasizing ethics, transparency,
risk monitoring. So quite a bit happening there.
Any other regions making notable moves? Brazil
is one to watch. Their Senate approved a comprehensive
AI bill in December 2024. It looks somewhat similar
to the EU's risk -based model. If that gets fully
enacted, it would be one of the first big AI
laws in Latin America. So this global fragmentation,
much like the U .S. state -level situation, really
creates challenges for international companies,
right? Huge challenge. If you're developing or
deploying AI globally, you face this incredibly
complex, constantly shifting regulatory map.
It really forces organizations to be agile in
their governance and, again, to invest in things
like PETs to manage data across different legal
regimes. And the underlying concerns about data,
bias, the black box nature of some AI, those
are universal. Exactly. It highlights the need
for really robust data privacy governance, strong
information security, maybe aligning with international
standards like ISO 42001. It's not just about
compliance anymore. Companies need to proactively
build accountability and ethics into their AI
to gain trust and really lead. Okay, finally,
let's shift away from policy and economics for
a moment. Amidst all this complexity, science
keeps marching forward. What are some of the
major breakthroughs that have caught your eye
recently? Oh, absolutely. It's important to remember
that fundamental discovery continues. Rockefeller
University highlighted some really fascinating
work coming out of their labs in 2024, for example.
Like what? Anything related to CRISPR, the gene
editing tool? Yes. Really interesting stuff.
Luciano Merafini's lab, working with folks at
Sloan Kettering, found a totally new capability
for some CRISPR systems. We know CRISPR can edit
genes, right? Right. That's the famous part.
Well, they found these systems can also act like
a sort of molecular fumigator. They produce toxic
molecules that specifically target invading viruses
or plasmids and essentially trigger the infected
cell to shut down. It's described as a completely
brand new type of CRISPR chemistry. Wow. So it's
not just editing, it's defense too. Exactly.
It suggests bacteria have diverse immune strategies
we didn't know about, and it might even open
up possibilities for new diagnostic tools or
therapies based on this mechanism. That's incredible.
What else stood out? Anything in neuroscience?
Yeah. Jeffrey Friedman's lab identified a neural
circuit in mice, just three brain cells. Apparently
that links the feeling of hunger directly to
the physical movement of the jaw. They also found
a new type of neuron that seems to quickly counteract
hunger. promoting satiety or fullness so getting
closer to understanding the wiring behind appetite
precisely it gives us fundamental insights into
how appetite is regulated which could down the
line help inform treatments for things like eating
disorders or obesity very cool I think I also
saw something about telomeres and aging You did!
Tisha Delonge's team figured out how two specific
enzymes work together to properly maintain telomeres,
those protective caps on the ends of our chromosomes.
One enzyme, telomerase, stops them from shortening
too much, but this other complex, CST -polvermes,
manages the other DNA strand during replication
to ensure the whole telomere stays intact. Why
that important? Understanding telomere maintenance
is key to understanding cellular aging and uncontrolled
replication, like in cancer. So these insights
could be really significant for age -related
diseases and cancer research. Speaking of cancer,
any breakthroughs there? Kevance Bersoy's lab
found something fascinating. Certain fats or
lipids can act like fatty shields for cancer
cells. They essentially hoard other molecules
called glycosphingolipids, which seems to hide
inflammatory signals and dampen the immune response
against the tumor. So a potential new vulnerability
to target. Exactly. It points to new metabolic
weaknesses in cancer cells that might be exploited
therapeutically. Amazing. Any other neuroscience
leaps? Yes. The Victoria Lab developed a tool
called eulophistic. It's described as a universal
tool for tracking cell -to -cell interactions
inside a living organism in real time. This is
getting us closer to understanding things like
dendritic translation. Which is related to memory
formation, right? Right, considered kind of a
holy grail for memory research. It involves coordinated
neuron activity and making proteins right where
they're needed at the synapse. Tools like eulipistic
are critical for figuring out these complex processes,
which is vital for tackling neurological disorders.
Just incredible progress. Anything else? One
more that's really neat, from Vanessa Ruda's
lab studying fruit fly mating. They figured out
how flies evolve their courtship rituals so efficiently,
it seems they use a kind of plug -and -play mechanism
in the brain. Plug and play? How? They can plug
diverse sensory inputs like maybe detecting a
new pheromone into existing conserved brain pathways
that control behavior. This lets them rapidly
tweak their courtship rituals over evolutionary
time. It's a cool model for understanding how
complex behaviors evolve in general. It's just
remarkable the breadth of discovery happening
across genetics, neuroscience, cancer, evolution.
It really is. It underscores that relentless
pursuit of knowledge. Even with all the global
turmoil, science keeps pushing boundaries and
reshaping our understanding of life and health.
So wrapping up this deep dive, it's just striking
how interconnected everything we've discussed
really is. You've got the U .S. economic slowdown.
tied to trade policy. Right, which has global
ripples. You have this fragmented AI regulation
picture, both domestically and globally. Contrasting
with these big concerted pushes on climate policy.
All happening against a backdrop of significant
geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty
worldwide. And yet underneath it all, these incredible
scientific leaps forward. Exactly. The big takeaway
for me is just how profoundly national decisions,
especially on trade and regulation, echo around
the globe. This interplay creates really complex
challenges. It really forces businesses, policymakers,
everyone to be incredibly adaptable. Foresight
and adaptability, yeah. So as you think about
all this, maybe the question to ponder is, what
are the long -term consequences of these tangled
trends? How might the economic shifts, the AI
rules, the climate efforts, the geopolitical
realignments we've talked about, how might they
shape the next defining moment? It's a powerful
reminder, I think, of needing that foresight,
that resilience to navigate the path ahead. Well
said. A lot to keep track of. Indeed. Thanks
for joining us for this Deep Dive.