WEBVTT 00:00:09.720 --> 00:00:12.539 Thanks for tuning in. Hamtalk Live will be on 00:00:12.539 --> 00:00:30.480 the air shortly. Please stand by. Thanks for 00:00:30.480 --> 00:00:33.240 tuning in. Hamtalk Live will be on the air shortly. 00:00:33.520 --> 00:00:48.359 Please stand by. This episode of HamTalk Live 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:51.880 is brought to you by Tower Electronics. For cables, 00:00:52.000 --> 00:00:57.439 connectors, and more, call 920 -435 -2973 or 00:00:57.439 --> 00:01:02.740 visit pl -259 .com and by the HamStation. Get 00:01:02.740 --> 00:01:06.879 your new radio or antenna by calling 800 -729 00:01:06.879 --> 00:01:45.739 -4373 or go to hamstation .com. everyone! This 00:01:45.739 --> 00:01:49.280 is Neil Rapp, WB9VPG, and welcome to HamTalk 00:01:49.280 --> 00:01:54.480 Live episode number 48, Sunspot Cycles with Karl 00:01:54.480 --> 00:01:59.379 Lutzelschwaub. K9LA, recorded live on Thursday, 00:01:59.900 --> 00:02:05.019 January 19th, 2017. I'm your host, Neil Rapp, 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:08.039 WB9VPG. Thanks for tuning into this episode of 00:02:08.039 --> 00:02:12.310 HamTalk Live. Tonight, We're joined by Carl Lutzelschwaab, 00:02:12.449 --> 00:02:16.509 K9LA, who will take your questions about sunspot 00:02:16.509 --> 00:02:19.650 cycles and how they affect radio propagation. 00:02:20.210 --> 00:02:23.789 We will take your calls live in just a few minutes. 00:02:24.610 --> 00:02:28.389 Last week, John Davis, WB4QDX, was here to talk 00:02:28.389 --> 00:02:32.490 about setting up a D -Star rig. We'll have some 00:02:32.490 --> 00:02:36.289 more D -Star, DMR, and System Fusion shows in 00:02:36.289 --> 00:02:40.939 the future. So if you missed the show about D 00:02:40.939 --> 00:02:43.879 -Star, you can listen anytime at HamTalkLive 00:02:43.879 --> 00:02:47.860 .com, or on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play, TuneIn, 00:02:47.919 --> 00:02:52.900 SoundCloud, or YouTube, or several other podcasting 00:02:52.900 --> 00:02:58.099 sites. Hey, congratulations to Hope Lee, KM4IPF. 00:02:58.479 --> 00:03:02.159 She had over 30 ,000 views on a Facebook video. 00:03:03.150 --> 00:03:05.969 of her working the ham radio station on the set 00:03:05.969 --> 00:03:10.270 of the tv sitcom last man standing um so hope 00:03:10.270 --> 00:03:14.349 just keeps getting all over the screen and uh 00:03:14.349 --> 00:03:16.469 if you haven't seen it yet go over to facebook 00:03:16.469 --> 00:03:22.310 check out the ka0xtt web page there on facebook 00:03:22.310 --> 00:03:25.560 and you can watch that One other note, we want 00:03:25.560 --> 00:03:29.400 to send our condolences to the family of Charlie 00:03:29.400 --> 00:03:33.400 Emerson in 4OKL. Charlie was chairman of the 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:37.180 Huntsville HamFest and he became a silent key 00:03:37.180 --> 00:03:40.419 this week. He was on episode number 27 of HamTalk 00:03:40.419 --> 00:03:45.120 Live back in August. And if you tune into Amateur 00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:49.120 Radio Newsline tomorrow, there'll be a special 00:03:49.120 --> 00:03:52.580 tribute to the friendly ham who made Huntsville 00:03:53.050 --> 00:03:57.370 the world's friendliest ham fest. Well, we'll 00:03:57.370 --> 00:04:00.629 be back. We'll have the interview with Carl Lutzelschwaab 00:04:00.629 --> 00:04:03.909 and you can call us with your sunspot cycle questions 00:04:03.909 --> 00:04:07.650 on Skype. The username there is ham talk live, 00:04:07.770 --> 00:04:11.659 or you can call us on. the old telephone. The 00:04:11.659 --> 00:04:19.980 number is 812 -NET -HAM -1. That's 812 -638 -4261. 00:04:20.379 --> 00:04:22.959 You can also tweet us a question or Twitter handle 00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:26.040 is at HamTalk Live. So we'll check those as well. 00:04:26.259 --> 00:04:29.120 And I'll be back with Carl Lutzelschwaab, K9LA, 00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:32.279 right after this word from the HamStation right 00:04:32.279 --> 00:04:36.060 here on HamTalk Live. This episode of HamTalk 00:04:36.060 --> 00:04:39.449 Live is brought to you by the HamStation. For 00:04:39.449 --> 00:04:42.649 over 37 years, the HamStation has sold new and 00:04:42.649 --> 00:04:45.769 used radios, antennas, accessories, and equipment 00:04:45.769 --> 00:04:49.550 to hams everywhere. Give Dan or Jeff a call at 00:04:49.550 --> 00:04:56.110 800 -729 -4373 or order online at hamstation 00:04:56.110 --> 00:04:59.689 .com. HamStation carries all the major brands 00:04:59.689 --> 00:05:03.470 like Icom, Yezu, and Kenwood. And they have a 00:05:03.470 --> 00:05:07.290 wide selection of radio scanners, MFJ accessories, 00:05:07.629 --> 00:05:09.939 Hile sound products, products, amplifiers by 00:05:09.939 --> 00:05:13.139 Mirage and Ameritron, Cushcraft antennas and 00:05:13.139 --> 00:05:16.920 more. Easy online ordering is at HamStation .com 00:05:16.920 --> 00:05:23.019 or call 1 -800 -729 -4373 to place an order and 00:05:23.019 --> 00:05:25.819 talk it over with the experts. The HamStation, 00:05:26.139 --> 00:05:29.540 proud to sponsor this episode of HamTalk Live. 00:05:30.220 --> 00:05:32.339 We're not sure what's up with the fifth dentist, 00:05:32.620 --> 00:05:35.019 but four out of five dentists recommend listening 00:05:35.019 --> 00:05:51.240 to HamTalk Live. Hey, be sure to check out thehamstation 00:05:51.240 --> 00:05:58.600 .com or give Dan or Jeff a call. 800 -729 -4373. 00:05:58.699 --> 00:06:01.040 They've got you covered for just about anything 00:06:01.040 --> 00:06:03.920 you need. Tell them you heard it here on HamTalk 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:06.240 Live. We're on the air every Thursday night at 00:06:06.240 --> 00:06:09.269 9 p .m. Eastern Time. Right here at HamTalkLive 00:06:09.269 --> 00:06:11.569 .com and if you missed the show you can listen 00:06:11.569 --> 00:06:14.629 to the archive on the website or download it 00:06:14.629 --> 00:06:19.740 for most popular podcasting websites. Carl Lutzelschwaab, 00:06:19.819 --> 00:06:24.959 K9LA, was first licensed in October of 1961 with 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:29.180 the callsign WN9AVT. His interest in amateur 00:06:29.180 --> 00:06:33.180 radio came from being a shortwave listener in 00:06:33.180 --> 00:06:36.620 the fifth and sixth grades using a National NC 00:06:36.620 --> 00:06:39.100 60 with a long wire out the basement window. 00:06:39.819 --> 00:06:41.980 His amateur radio interests ultimately led to 00:06:41.980 --> 00:06:45.300 a career in electronics. His interest in propagation 00:06:45.300 --> 00:06:48.360 goes back to his college days at Purdue University 00:06:48.360 --> 00:06:51.319 where he earned a bachelor of science in electrical 00:06:51.319 --> 00:06:56.939 engineering in 1969 and a master's in 1972. Carl 00:06:56.939 --> 00:07:00.699 retired in October 2013 after 41 years as an 00:07:00.699 --> 00:07:04.319 RF design engineer with Motorola and Raytheon, 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:08.509 which is formerly Magnavox. He's authored many 00:07:08.509 --> 00:07:11.750 articles and given many presentations on solar 00:07:11.750 --> 00:07:15.230 effects on the radio propagation. He and his 00:07:15.230 --> 00:07:19.790 wife Vicki Lutzer -Schwab, AE9... YL have been 00:07:19.790 --> 00:07:22.850 on several DXpeditions. He's at the top of the 00:07:22.850 --> 00:07:26.589 DXCC honor roll, having worked all current DXCC 00:07:26.589 --> 00:07:31.850 entities. He's also completed DXCC on 160, and 00:07:31.850 --> 00:07:34.689 is nearing five -band worked -all zones. His 00:07:34.689 --> 00:07:38.550 website contains many of his articles and tutorials. 00:07:38.589 --> 00:07:44.899 That's over at K9LA. And he's also the vice director 00:07:44.899 --> 00:07:48.680 of the ARRL Central Division. So Carl, welcome 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:51.360 to HamTalk Live. Well, hello, Neil. I'm glad 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:54.740 to be here and hope I can provide some good information 00:07:54.740 --> 00:07:59.300 to all the listeners. Yeah, sure. We appreciate 00:07:59.300 --> 00:08:03.279 you coming on the show and appreciate your help 00:08:03.279 --> 00:08:08.600 with things at my school as well. And we want 00:08:08.600 --> 00:08:11.959 to start off just talking about the sunspot cycle. 00:08:12.459 --> 00:08:15.279 We know from studying from the license that there's 00:08:15.279 --> 00:08:19.439 this 11 year cycle. And so tell us a little more 00:08:19.439 --> 00:08:22.519 about that cycle and where we are in that cycle 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:27.180 right now. Okay Neil, very good. Well we measure 00:08:27.180 --> 00:08:31.480 solar cycles from solar minimum through solar 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:33.840 maximum and then back down to solar minimum. 00:08:34.419 --> 00:08:38.139 Sometimes it's not real easy to tell when a solar 00:08:38.139 --> 00:08:41.429 minimum is. because there are many things going 00:08:41.429 --> 00:08:45.169 on. Now the average length of a solar cycle as 00:08:45.169 --> 00:08:50.049 you stated is about 11 years and I can't stress 00:08:50.049 --> 00:08:55.009 the fact that it's about 11 years. Of the 24 00:08:55.009 --> 00:08:59.529 cycles that we have in recorded history the length 00:08:59.529 --> 00:09:04.429 varies from a couple years shorter than 11 to 00:09:04.429 --> 00:09:09.750 several years longer than 11. Average rise time 00:09:09.750 --> 00:09:13.870 of a solar cycle is about four years. So after 00:09:13.870 --> 00:09:17.870 hitting solar minimum, we should usually expect 00:09:17.870 --> 00:09:22.090 to see the maximum about four years later. And 00:09:22.090 --> 00:09:26.090 some simple math says the average descent is 00:09:26.090 --> 00:09:30.129 therefore seven years. So what that tells us 00:09:30.129 --> 00:09:32.769 is the descent is much slower than the rise. 00:09:33.289 --> 00:09:35.840 And that's been going on for... or at least all 00:09:35.840 --> 00:09:41.120 the 24 cycles that we have recorded. Now, posted 00:09:41.120 --> 00:09:45.460 in various places, I was just looking at it on 00:09:45.460 --> 00:09:49.620 QRZ .com, is figure one, which I thought might 00:09:49.620 --> 00:09:51.840 help, and I'll talk about figure one. If you 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:54.399 can view it, that's great. If not, hopefully 00:09:54.399 --> 00:09:58.480 I can explain it. What it is is just shows the... 00:09:59.280 --> 00:10:02.600 Smooth sunspot number for the last one two three 00:10:02.600 --> 00:10:06.059 four five six solar cycles that'd be cycle 19 00:10:06.059 --> 00:10:11.179 20 21 22 23 and 24 and that extends from about 00:10:11.179 --> 00:10:16.580 1954 up to the present date and let me jump in 00:10:16.580 --> 00:10:22.340 here too if if you aren't looking at the pictures. 00:10:22.620 --> 00:10:25.919 We also have those on our Twitter. So if you 00:10:25.919 --> 00:10:29.080 go to HamTalk Live on Twitter or on our Facebook 00:10:29.080 --> 00:10:32.679 page, they're there as well, as well as in that 00:10:32.679 --> 00:10:36.360 news post on QRZ .com. So you can try to see 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:39.620 those if you want to follow along. Yeah, well, 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.519 thanks, Neil, for further additional information 00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:48.159 there. What we can see there is cycle 19 as maybe 00:10:48.159 --> 00:10:51.039 most of you are aware has been the biggest one 00:10:51.039 --> 00:10:54.159 in our recorded history Now that doesn't say 00:10:54.159 --> 00:10:59.419 that the Sun has done bigger cycles before Before 00:10:59.419 --> 00:11:02.539 we started even viewing sunspots, but at least 00:11:02.539 --> 00:11:05.580 19 is the biggest cycle 20 was kind of small 00:11:05.580 --> 00:11:09.299 About half the size of 19 and then cycles 21 00:11:09.299 --> 00:11:11.740 and 2 came 22 came along and they were pretty 00:11:11.740 --> 00:11:14.580 good not as big as 19, but they provided lots 00:11:14.580 --> 00:11:19.059 of good 10 meter openings worldwide. Cycle 23, 00:11:19.159 --> 00:11:23.860 which peaked around 2000 for the first peak, 00:11:24.700 --> 00:11:27.639 was not too far behind cycle 2, so it gave lots 00:11:27.639 --> 00:11:31.679 of good worldwide opportunities. And then cycle 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:34.419 24, if you can see the picture, it stands out. 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:40.419 It's the lowest cycle in our lifetimes. So things 00:11:40.419 --> 00:11:43.970 have been kind of going down. since cycle 19 00:11:43.970 --> 00:11:47.230 and maybe a little bit later we'll talk about 00:11:47.230 --> 00:11:50.070 that. If you get the picture you'll see some 00:11:50.070 --> 00:11:52.769 of those solar cycles have dual peaks. In other 00:11:52.769 --> 00:11:54.529 words they peak the first time then they take 00:11:54.529 --> 00:11:57.029 a little dip and then go up again. What that 00:11:57.029 --> 00:12:00.450 is is just that the solar hemispheres aren't 00:12:00.450 --> 00:12:05.370 in sync. Sunspots in the northern hemisphere 00:12:05.370 --> 00:12:09.750 sometimes are greater and that causes a peak 00:12:09.750 --> 00:12:12.980 and then sunspots in the southern hemisphere 00:12:12.980 --> 00:12:17.860 are just come roaring back and that causes another 00:12:17.860 --> 00:12:23.440 peak. Interesting phenomena, and there's a lot 00:12:23.440 --> 00:12:26.500 of good stuff that we won't talk about, but hopefully 00:12:26.500 --> 00:12:30.019 I'll cover some of the general stuff. With cycle 00:12:30.019 --> 00:12:33.240 24, we're in the decline. We're more than halfway 00:12:33.240 --> 00:12:36.379 down to solar minimum, which is expected to be 00:12:36.379 --> 00:12:40.919 in about 2020. And then of course that kind of 00:12:40.919 --> 00:12:47.019 suggests that in 2024 cycle 25 will peak So that's 00:12:47.019 --> 00:12:50.960 it that's a little bit background on that question 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:56.679 Okay, well since we're we're kind of you know 00:12:56.679 --> 00:12:58.940 approaching the bottom of the cycle here We noticed 00:12:58.940 --> 00:13:01.399 that the bands have been pretty bad for a while 00:13:02.730 --> 00:13:06.330 Seems like every time I get on Twitter. It's 00:13:06.330 --> 00:13:12.710 the bands are dead Jim and you know the Forecast 00:13:12.710 --> 00:13:16.009 just says you know band closed band closed band 00:13:16.009 --> 00:13:22.669 closed so Why is this one so much worse than 00:13:22.669 --> 00:13:26.830 the normal? That's a real good question As I 00:13:26.830 --> 00:13:28.889 mentioned just a couple of minutes ago cycle 00:13:28.889 --> 00:13:33.620 24 is the lowest one in our lifetime And it also 00:13:33.620 --> 00:13:36.600 suggests that maybe cycle 25 is going to be low 00:13:36.600 --> 00:13:43.299 also. Now why is the cycle so much worse? Well, 00:13:43.399 --> 00:13:46.419 it's because for the past several solar cycles, 00:13:46.740 --> 00:13:49.220 the sun's magnetic field has been weakening. 00:13:49.659 --> 00:13:52.220 And of course, sunspots are tied to the sun's 00:13:52.220 --> 00:13:56.139 magnetic field and the plasma flow within the 00:13:56.139 --> 00:14:00.159 sun. So that's why it's weakening. Now we don't 00:14:00.159 --> 00:14:03.039 fully understand or at least solar scientists 00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:07.059 don't fully understand why the sun's magnetic 00:14:07.059 --> 00:14:10.779 field is weakening, but it is. And there sure 00:14:10.779 --> 00:14:14.679 is a lot of research trying to understand, you 00:14:14.679 --> 00:14:18.519 know, how solar cycles are generated. You know, 00:14:18.559 --> 00:14:21.779 we want to do that to be able to predict future 00:14:21.779 --> 00:14:28.240 cycles because of, you know, space operations 00:14:28.240 --> 00:14:31.450 out there. An active sun creates more hazard 00:14:31.450 --> 00:14:34.710 to the astronauts. Of course, Ham Radio was interested 00:14:34.710 --> 00:14:38.690 in what solar cycles are doing. Now, I've got 00:14:38.690 --> 00:14:43.710 a figure two on there posted to the qrz .com 00:14:43.710 --> 00:14:47.529 and all the places that Neil said. And what it 00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:51.190 shows is all 23 recorded solar cycles, or 24 00:14:51.190 --> 00:14:55.980 recorded solar cycles. And what the figure shows 00:14:55.980 --> 00:14:59.340 is that the first four cycles were rather high. 00:14:59.539 --> 00:15:04.120 The next three cycles were rather low. The next 00:15:04.120 --> 00:15:09.559 six or so cycles were kind of high. Then we went 00:15:09.559 --> 00:15:12.000 into a period of about four solar cycles that 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.600 were kind of low. And then we hit the modern 00:15:14.600 --> 00:15:17.700 times where cycle 19 was, and that was very high. 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:25.820 So what we've had is we've had a period of very 00:15:25.820 --> 00:15:28.840 high solar cycles followed by a period of low 00:15:28.840 --> 00:15:32.980 solar cycles followed by another period of high 00:15:32.980 --> 00:15:37.299 solar cycles followed by another period of low 00:15:37.299 --> 00:15:40.399 and then this recent period of very high solar 00:15:40.399 --> 00:15:45.080 cycles. What that suggests is we're now headed 00:15:45.080 --> 00:15:48.679 for some low solar cycles, 24, 25, maybe even 00:15:48.679 --> 00:15:52.269 26. We like I said, we can't really predict that 00:15:52.269 --> 00:15:55.110 very well, so we're just gonna have to wait and 00:15:55.110 --> 00:16:05.649 see what happens The solar cycles of course get 00:16:05.649 --> 00:16:10.830 into how good the bands are Yeah, and that's 00:16:10.830 --> 00:16:16.490 the the next thing here is okay, so the bands 00:16:16.490 --> 00:16:21.690 are dead you know the bands are not what they 00:16:21.690 --> 00:16:26.149 have been for several years so what do we do 00:16:26.149 --> 00:16:29.690 about it what what implications does the cycle 00:16:29.690 --> 00:16:33.649 have on trying to choose a band and operating 00:16:33.649 --> 00:16:37.669 times and and and get through this low part of 00:16:37.669 --> 00:16:45.980 the cycle yeah that's a good question As we've 00:16:45.980 --> 00:16:49.860 since we've been proceeding on the descent of 00:16:49.860 --> 00:16:56.100 cycle 24 The bands have been pretty bad and the 00:16:56.100 --> 00:16:59.000 reason for that is when there are lots of sunspots 00:16:59.000 --> 00:17:04.480 There's lots of ionization mostly in the especially 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:07.920 in the f2 region, which is Generally what is 00:17:07.920 --> 00:17:11.039 used for for long -distance communications worldwide? 00:17:12.539 --> 00:17:16.029 and what that means is when there's more ionization, 00:17:16.670 --> 00:17:19.269 the higher frequencies can be refracted back 00:17:19.269 --> 00:17:22.450 to Earth. They don't go through the ionosphere 00:17:22.450 --> 00:17:26.529 into space to never return unless the universe 00:17:26.529 --> 00:17:29.009 is, you know, closed and folds back on itself. 00:17:29.250 --> 00:17:32.710 But we won't get into that. Yeah. We hope that's 00:17:32.710 --> 00:17:34.710 not happening. Yeah. If you want to know more 00:17:34.710 --> 00:17:38.650 about that Star Trek episode number. Yeah, exactly. 00:17:39.869 --> 00:17:44.710 OK. So, you know, there are two things that really 00:17:44.710 --> 00:17:48.170 determine if you can have a QSO between you and 00:17:48.170 --> 00:17:50.410 a target location. One is there's got to be enough 00:17:50.410 --> 00:17:54.269 ionization in the ionosphere to be able to refract 00:17:54.269 --> 00:17:57.410 the frequency you're on, to send it back to Earth 00:17:57.410 --> 00:18:01.450 so it can maybe go for another hop or do something 00:18:01.450 --> 00:18:04.470 even more exotic like ducting up in the ionosphere. 00:18:06.049 --> 00:18:09.819 The other issue is ionospheric absorption. In 00:18:09.819 --> 00:18:12.000 other words, I'm sure everyone's heard of the 00:18:12.000 --> 00:18:15.680 D region, and that's responsible solely for loss, 00:18:16.420 --> 00:18:21.339 signal strength loss during propagation. So it 00:18:21.339 --> 00:18:23.700 determines if you can hear that other station 00:18:23.700 --> 00:18:27.740 or not, and if he can hear you. Actually, there's 00:18:27.740 --> 00:18:29.960 really a third issue. It's called polarization, 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:35.579 vertical, circular, horizontal, et cetera, elliptical. 00:18:36.269 --> 00:18:39.670 But that's less of a problem and it's usually 00:18:39.670 --> 00:18:42.750 not a big issue So most of the time we kind of 00:18:42.750 --> 00:18:46.170 ignored on HF at least when we get down to 160 00:18:46.170 --> 00:18:50.069 meters it starts getting important for some good 00:18:50.069 --> 00:18:54.490 physical reasons but Like I said the polarization 00:18:54.490 --> 00:18:56.369 is not a big issue, so I'm not going to worry 00:18:56.369 --> 00:19:02.849 about it too much Now as as cycle 24 approaches 00:19:02.849 --> 00:19:05.589 minimum we're gonna have We're going to have 00:19:05.589 --> 00:19:08.509 less and less openings on 10, 12, and 15 meters. 00:19:09.230 --> 00:19:10.990 Now you may wonder, how can we have any less 00:19:10.990 --> 00:19:14.849 than we're having right now, right? But generally 00:19:14.849 --> 00:19:18.690 North -South propagation is, it kind of happens 00:19:18.690 --> 00:19:21.289 on 10 meters. In fact, yesterday there are a 00:19:21.289 --> 00:19:24.269 lot of South Americans on up here. I could hear 00:19:24.269 --> 00:19:26.609 them up here in Fort Wayne, Indiana, which is 00:19:26.609 --> 00:19:30.990 up in the Northeast corner of the state. So 10 00:19:30.990 --> 00:19:34.230 meters is not. There's going to be a lot of nothing 00:19:34.230 --> 00:19:36.950 there, but at times there could be some good 00:19:36.950 --> 00:19:38.789 propagation. And of course, during the summer, 00:19:39.170 --> 00:19:42.549 you should always check 10 meters for sporadic 00:19:42.549 --> 00:19:46.490 E. That happens regardless of a solar cycle, 00:19:46.569 --> 00:19:50.970 where we are in a solar cycle. So don't give 00:19:50.970 --> 00:19:54.089 up completely. Every once in a while, exercise 00:19:54.089 --> 00:19:58.170 those band switches. In general, of course, the 00:19:58.170 --> 00:20:01.839 low bands seem to approve as we approach solar 00:20:01.839 --> 00:20:07.319 minimum. But recently there have been some interesting 00:20:07.319 --> 00:20:13.180 questions about this conventional wisdom. Many 00:20:13.180 --> 00:20:15.480 people have expected the low bands to be a lot 00:20:15.480 --> 00:20:19.200 better than they appear to be. Trying to figure 00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:23.059 out why they're not as good is kind of interesting. 00:20:23.700 --> 00:20:26.539 So who knows, maybe we'll learn something as 00:20:26.539 --> 00:20:29.500 we go through this solar min period. but I think 00:20:29.500 --> 00:20:33.319 the general takeaway is just for the next several 00:20:33.319 --> 00:20:38.000 years until cycle 25 gets going there's going 00:20:38.000 --> 00:20:40.319 to be few openings in the high bands and most 00:20:40.319 --> 00:20:45.019 of us are going to be well beyond the low bands 00:20:45.019 --> 00:20:50.940 you know 17, 20, 30, 40, 80 and 160. 20 and 17 00:20:50.940 --> 00:20:53.640 will probably be still be pretty good throughout 00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:56.490 the solar min period. Of course, they won't be 00:20:56.490 --> 00:20:58.750 as good as at solar max, but they'll still be 00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:02.250 worldwide DX opportunities. 40 and 30 ought to 00:21:02.250 --> 00:21:05.210 be really, really good. And hopefully 80 and 00:21:05.210 --> 00:21:09.569 160 will pick up. So for the next couple of years, 00:21:09.730 --> 00:21:13.869 move down in frequency is the advice. All right. 00:21:13.869 --> 00:21:24.500 Very good. That's what I'm hearing is 160. I 00:21:24.500 --> 00:21:27.079 can kind of cheat with my antenna and get 160, 00:21:27.460 --> 00:21:33.000 but that takes some wire. So you may want to 00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:36.960 think about that 160 antenna. Well, we're going 00:21:36.960 --> 00:21:39.599 to take a break. And when we come back, we're 00:21:39.599 --> 00:21:42.900 going to take your phone calls. So get ready 00:21:42.900 --> 00:21:47.579 to call in. The number is 812 -NET -HAM -1 and 00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:50.960 I'll be back to take your calls with Carl Lutzelschwaab 00:21:50.960 --> 00:21:53.819 right after this message from Tower Electronics 00:21:53.819 --> 00:21:57.839 right here on HamTalk Live. This episode of HamTalk 00:21:57.839 --> 00:22:00.880 Live is brought to you in part by Tower Electronics. 00:22:01.119 --> 00:22:03.539 Tower Electronics has been the Ham's Dime Store 00:22:03.539 --> 00:22:06.940 since 1978. When you need connectors, mobile 00:22:06.940 --> 00:22:10.200 and handheld antennas, cables, or adapters, visit 00:22:10.200 --> 00:22:13.779 Scott or Jill at a HamFest near you. Or you can 00:22:13.779 --> 00:22:19.980 order online at PL -259 .com or call 920 -435 00:22:19.980 --> 00:22:25.000 -2973. Stock up on those supplies like PL -259 00:22:25.000 --> 00:22:28.259 and end connectors, SMA adapters, audio cables, 00:22:28.559 --> 00:22:31.710 soldering supplies, mobile antennas, and hamsticks. 00:22:31.970 --> 00:22:34.109 Their silver -plated in -connectors are even 00:22:34.109 --> 00:22:36.769 used on the International Space Station. Tower 00:22:36.769 --> 00:22:40.569 Electronics carries MFJ, Comet, Daiwa, OPEC, 00:22:40.849 --> 00:22:44.089 Workman, and HamPro products. And don't miss 00:22:44.089 --> 00:22:48.150 their 0 % off sale going on now! Tower Electronics 00:22:48.150 --> 00:22:52.430 online at PL -259 .com proud to sponsor this 00:22:52.430 --> 00:23:01.900 episode of HamTalk Live. I'd love to be in your 00:23:01.900 --> 00:23:06.940 grid square. Join the conversation. Call us on 00:23:06.940 --> 00:23:10.099 voice with Skype at HamTalk Live or give us a 00:23:10.099 --> 00:23:16.660 call at 812 -NET -HAM -1. That's 812 -638 -4261. 00:23:16.920 --> 00:23:21.019 Now here's more HamTalk Live. Thanks to Scott 00:23:21.019 --> 00:23:23.119 and Jill at Tower Electronics for sponsoring 00:23:23.119 --> 00:23:25.799 the show yet again tonight to help bring you 00:23:25.799 --> 00:23:28.910 HamTalk Live. They're back on the road. They'll 00:23:28.910 --> 00:23:31.710 be at the Fort Myers, Florida and St. Charles, 00:23:31.710 --> 00:23:35.690 Illinois ham fest this weekend. and Collinsville, 00:23:35.690 --> 00:23:39.390 Illinois and Arcadia, Florida next Saturday. 00:23:39.849 --> 00:23:46.509 Or you can call them at 920 -435 -2973 or visit 00:23:46.509 --> 00:23:51.089 them online at pl -259 .com. Tell them you heard 00:23:51.089 --> 00:23:54.170 it on HamTalk Live and be sure to listen to HamTalk 00:23:54.170 --> 00:23:57.230 Live Thursday nights at 9 p .m. Eastern time 00:23:57.230 --> 00:24:00.869 right here on HamTalkLive .com. Also check out 00:24:00.869 --> 00:24:03.029 our Facebook page and Twitter feed to search. 00:24:03.900 --> 00:24:09.019 For ham talk live. So now it's time for your 00:24:09.019 --> 00:24:12.460 questions. So if you have a question For Carl 00:24:12.460 --> 00:24:18.000 Lucil Schwab, K9LA, call 812 -NET -HAM -1. That's 00:24:18.000 --> 00:24:23.400 812 -638 -4261. Go ahead and call that right 00:24:23.400 --> 00:24:28.079 now. 812 -NET -HAM -1. Now is the time to call 00:24:28.079 --> 00:24:32.539 in. You can also Skype us. You can Skype us at 00:24:32.539 --> 00:24:37.980 HamTalk Live. So give us a call on Skype. and 00:24:37.980 --> 00:24:40.920 join the conversation, or if you'd rather type, 00:24:41.299 --> 00:24:45.859 you can tweet us. Over on Twitter, at HamTalkLive 00:24:45.859 --> 00:24:49.940 is our handle there. So if you have a question 00:24:49.940 --> 00:24:54.480 about propagation and sunspots, give us a call. 00:24:55.279 --> 00:24:58.240 And by the way, Carl, I've noticed you've been 00:24:58.240 --> 00:25:03.259 on the AWRL audio news lately, and my friend 00:25:03.259 --> 00:25:07.589 Sean Kutsko It seems to say your last name a 00:25:07.589 --> 00:25:10.589 lot. I think he just likes saying Lutzl Schwab. 00:25:11.549 --> 00:25:16.089 So a friend of mine mentioned that. For what 00:25:16.089 --> 00:25:18.170 it's worth, we've kind of Americanized it, I 00:25:18.170 --> 00:25:22.670 guess. We pronounce it Litzl Schwab. But they 00:25:22.670 --> 00:25:24.289 even pronounce it a different order in Switzerland. 00:25:25.799 --> 00:25:30.259 Yeah, so so what I thought I would do is See 00:25:30.259 --> 00:25:34.539 if I can outscore Sean and by saying Lutzl Schwab 00:25:34.539 --> 00:25:38.579 more times in the show Than he does so and maybe 00:25:38.579 --> 00:25:43.279 we'll maybe we'll have a contest And guess the 00:25:43.279 --> 00:25:46.779 number of times that I said Lutzl Schwab tonight, 00:25:46.779 --> 00:25:54.200 so We We used to see Sean quite a bit when he, 00:25:54.200 --> 00:25:57.400 of course, he lived in Nineland. But now that 00:25:57.400 --> 00:25:59.519 he's out at headquarters, we see him at Dayton 00:25:59.519 --> 00:26:02.559 and maybe some other ham fest, but that's about 00:26:02.559 --> 00:26:09.380 it. Yeah, he's got his hands full of all kinds 00:26:09.380 --> 00:26:13.779 of work out there in Connecticut, so he's abandoned 00:26:13.779 --> 00:26:17.619 us of Nineland. Yeah, he's done a lot of violence 00:26:17.619 --> 00:26:20.849 on the air, right? Yeah, islands on the air. 00:26:21.089 --> 00:26:23.630 Yeah, there we go. Yeah, he's having a lot of 00:26:23.630 --> 00:26:25.809 fun. Yeah, Parker, yeah. He's having lots of 00:26:25.809 --> 00:26:32.849 fun. All right, 812 -NATAM -1. 812 -638 -4261 00:26:32.849 --> 00:26:36.430 is the phone number for Carl Lutzelschwaab. I 00:26:36.430 --> 00:26:41.259 got it in there again. What are some... While 00:26:41.259 --> 00:26:44.000 we're waiting on the calls here to come in and 00:26:44.000 --> 00:26:46.960 questions, again, you can tweet us over at HamTalk 00:26:46.960 --> 00:26:51.619 Live on Twitter. What are some websites that 00:26:51.619 --> 00:26:56.099 people could go to to get the solar weather and 00:26:56.099 --> 00:27:00.380 propagation reports and that kind of thing? What 00:27:00.380 --> 00:27:03.160 are just some website addresses that you would 00:27:03.160 --> 00:27:07.640 suggest for people to check out? OK, well, as 00:27:07.640 --> 00:27:10.240 one might expect, there are quite a few out there. 00:27:10.750 --> 00:27:16.829 You know, the ARRL puts out a propagation bulletin 00:27:16.829 --> 00:27:21.589 every Friday and it's authored, it's edited by 00:27:21.589 --> 00:27:27.470 Tad K7RA. So he talks a lot about the numbers, 00:27:27.990 --> 00:27:34.490 sunspots, the geomagnetic field indices and also 00:27:34.490 --> 00:27:40.349 most of the time a lot of reader input. It's 00:27:40.349 --> 00:27:43.609 good practical information that you can read 00:27:43.609 --> 00:27:46.750 there. Of course, if you're a member of the ARRL, 00:27:46.869 --> 00:27:49.390 you can subscribe to that propagation bulletin 00:27:49.390 --> 00:27:51.410 for free, and it shows up in your email every 00:27:51.410 --> 00:27:56.289 week. Of course, CQ Magazine has a propagation 00:27:56.289 --> 00:28:01.230 column by Thomas NW7US. Lots of good info there. 00:28:01.829 --> 00:28:03.789 Now, if you're just looking on the web for some 00:28:03.789 --> 00:28:08.170 websites, spaceweather .com. Space weather is 00:28:08.170 --> 00:28:13.730 all one word. There are lots of measurements 00:28:13.730 --> 00:28:17.990 on the left side of their homepage, and in the 00:28:17.990 --> 00:28:20.369 center is usually lots of good discussion on 00:28:20.369 --> 00:28:26.609 various issues. One of the ones that has just 00:28:26.609 --> 00:28:31.670 mucho information is the Space Weather Prediction 00:28:31.670 --> 00:28:35.269 Center in Boulder, Colorado. Their website is 00:28:35.269 --> 00:28:47.579 www .swpc .com. So swpc .noaa .com. And they 00:28:47.579 --> 00:28:50.380 have lots of measurements, they have models, 00:28:50.599 --> 00:28:53.480 they have lots of tutorials to help you understand 00:28:53.480 --> 00:28:57.640 what all these measurements mean. I believe that's 00:28:57.640 --> 00:29:00.549 .gov. If I remember right. Yeah, you're right. 00:29:01.869 --> 00:29:08.190 And apparently we've got some sunspots on the 00:29:08.190 --> 00:29:11.910 line here. Your audio is breaking up a little 00:29:11.910 --> 00:29:17.230 bit. Well, okay, maybe it's not sunspots. So 00:29:17.230 --> 00:29:21.250 we apologize for that, but keep on going. We're 00:29:21.250 --> 00:29:25.990 in good shape here. Okay. Also www .qrz .com 00:29:25.990 --> 00:29:31.109 has a little panel. shows solar terrestrial data. 00:29:34.150 --> 00:29:38.750 Another good site is www .solarham .net. It has 00:29:38.750 --> 00:29:41.910 lots of data. And there are many more out there, 00:29:42.289 --> 00:29:44.609 and I'm sorry if I didn't include maybe some 00:29:44.609 --> 00:29:48.710 of your favorites, but they're all over the place. 00:29:50.269 --> 00:29:53.210 It's kind of like propagation prediction programs. 00:29:53.470 --> 00:29:56.970 They're all The same, it's the bells and whistles 00:29:56.970 --> 00:29:59.390 and how they present the data that's different. 00:29:59.910 --> 00:30:01.630 And that's what I think you'll find with all 00:30:01.630 --> 00:30:05.750 these websites, a lot of common data, how they 00:30:05.750 --> 00:30:09.130 present it. And of course that says you'll probably 00:30:09.130 --> 00:30:12.049 feel more comfortable with maybe a certain website 00:30:12.049 --> 00:30:16.029 and kind of stick to that. Yeah. And I like to 00:30:16.029 --> 00:30:19.390 follow Dr. Tamatha Scov too, over at spaceweather 00:30:19.390 --> 00:30:23.829 .tv. She does a great job on the visuals and 00:30:24.430 --> 00:30:27.450 some good stuff there too so all kinds of stuff 00:30:27.450 --> 00:30:31.950 out there to take a look at so those are some 00:30:31.950 --> 00:30:35.009 some great resources and I will put a list of 00:30:35.009 --> 00:30:37.809 those together and send those out on on Twitter 00:30:37.809 --> 00:30:41.509 and Facebook after the show so you can get a 00:30:41.509 --> 00:30:45.029 hold of those again if you missed those so those 00:30:45.029 --> 00:30:49.069 will be up on Facebook and Twitter afterwards 00:30:49.940 --> 00:30:56.740 812 Net Ham 1 is the phone number 812 -638 -4261 00:30:56.740 --> 00:31:04.119 or you can tweet us over at Twitter at HamTalk 00:31:04.119 --> 00:31:07.980 Live or you can call us on Skype at HamTalk Live 00:31:07.980 --> 00:31:12.339 if you have a question. One other thing that 00:31:12.339 --> 00:31:17.880 I've always wondered in listening to the W1AW 00:31:17.880 --> 00:31:21.779 bulletins, we always have the sunspot numbers 00:31:21.779 --> 00:31:26.319 at the end. Today's sunspot numbers are, I kind 00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:30.200 of think sometimes it's kind of like a fortune 00:31:30.200 --> 00:31:32.700 cookie, you know, your lucky numbers for today 00:31:32.700 --> 00:31:38.160 are 2478, you know. What are those sunspot numbers 00:31:38.160 --> 00:31:42.819 that they give out on the W1AW bulletins and 00:31:42.819 --> 00:31:47.299 how can we use those to help figure this stuff 00:31:47.299 --> 00:31:49.839 out? Okay, yeah, that's a good question, Neil. 00:31:51.539 --> 00:31:54.220 Those numbers are, you know, what we observe. 00:31:55.640 --> 00:31:58.180 And you have to realize that sunspot, counting 00:31:58.180 --> 00:32:02.220 sunspots is subjective. You know, humans do it, 00:32:02.240 --> 00:32:05.210 so there can be biases in there. And of course 00:32:05.210 --> 00:32:07.869 it depends on how good your telescope is, the 00:32:07.869 --> 00:32:11.150 sky cover, etc. And that's why they use a bunch 00:32:11.150 --> 00:32:14.509 of observatories to come up with a sunspot number. 00:32:14.549 --> 00:32:16.789 Hold on here, the cat's getting twisted in the 00:32:16.789 --> 00:32:19.910 headphone. Uh -oh. Yeah, one of the cats is active, 00:32:20.009 --> 00:32:24.450 but okay. It's not the first time that's happened 00:32:24.450 --> 00:32:31.369 on the show, by the way. So we count sunspots, 00:32:31.789 --> 00:32:35.619 which are subjective. But we try and you know 00:32:35.619 --> 00:32:40.700 get them as right as we can Of course there's 00:32:40.700 --> 00:32:44.799 another solar parameter It's called the 10 .7 00:32:44.799 --> 00:32:48.539 centimeter solar flux that is measured so it's 00:32:48.539 --> 00:32:53.099 much more of a an objective measurement and Of 00:32:53.099 --> 00:32:55.119 course you have to keep your you know the receiver 00:32:55.119 --> 00:32:58.579 and the calibrated etc and all that but still 00:32:58.579 --> 00:33:01.720 it's there's no human interpretation involved 00:33:01.720 --> 00:33:06.809 now sunspots and the 10 .7 centimeter solar flux 00:33:06.809 --> 00:33:11.569 are proxies for the true ionizing radiation, 00:33:11.930 --> 00:33:14.730 which is at much, much shorter wavelengths than 00:33:14.730 --> 00:33:20.269 10 .7 centimeters. But there are relationships 00:33:20.269 --> 00:33:28.130 that relate sunspots to 10 .7 centimeter solar 00:33:28.130 --> 00:33:31.150 flux. You'll probably find those on that NOAA 00:33:31.150 --> 00:33:37.259 .gov website. So, we use those numbers to get 00:33:37.259 --> 00:33:41.839 a general picture of what propagation is like. 00:33:43.119 --> 00:33:46.680 Generally, we'd like very high sunspot numbers, 00:33:47.079 --> 00:33:50.880 very high 10 .7 centimeter solar flux. That would 00:33:50.880 --> 00:33:54.579 make the higher bands like 15, 12, and 10 very 00:33:54.579 --> 00:34:00.700 good for worldwide communications. In general, 00:34:01.079 --> 00:34:04.000 if the sunspot number is greater than about 50 00:34:04.000 --> 00:34:07.779 or so, then 10 meters has a chance of being open. 00:34:09.340 --> 00:34:13.019 If the sunspot number is only around 35, it suggests, 00:34:13.019 --> 00:34:15.480 okay, well, 15 meters at least should be open. 00:34:16.219 --> 00:34:18.960 Those are some rough numbers, and they also correspond 00:34:18.960 --> 00:34:23.780 to solar fluxes. If the solar flux is greater 00:34:23.780 --> 00:34:26.179 than about 100, then 10 meters is open. If it's 00:34:26.179 --> 00:34:29.679 greater, about 90. It's at least 15 meters will 00:34:29.679 --> 00:34:33.440 be open. So we use those. And of course, this 00:34:33.440 --> 00:34:37.099 brings us into the propagation prediction programs 00:34:37.099 --> 00:34:40.320 that are available. There are many of them out 00:34:40.320 --> 00:34:45.300 there. There's W6ELProp. It's free download. 00:34:47.360 --> 00:34:50.519 And on my website is a tutorial on how to download 00:34:50.519 --> 00:34:54.559 it and use it and interpret it. Also the Voice 00:34:54.559 --> 00:34:58.579 of America program, VOA Cap. is also a free download 00:34:58.579 --> 00:35:02.340 on the website. Just do a Google search and you'll 00:35:02.340 --> 00:35:12.159 find that program. There's a tutorial on my website 00:35:12.159 --> 00:35:17.440 at k9la .us for how to download it, set it up 00:35:17.440 --> 00:35:21.039 and use it and interpret it. We have to remember 00:35:21.039 --> 00:35:24.179 that our understanding of the ionosphere is statistical 00:35:24.179 --> 00:35:30.369 in nature. Unfortunately, a given sunspot number 00:35:30.369 --> 00:35:34.510 or solar flux number does not map to a unique 00:35:34.510 --> 00:35:38.929 level of ionization of the ionosphere. So you 00:35:38.929 --> 00:35:40.989 just have to remember that our predictions are 00:35:40.989 --> 00:35:44.449 statistical over a month's time frame. And once 00:35:44.449 --> 00:35:47.469 you understand that, they begin to make sense. 00:35:47.469 --> 00:35:50.929 And you can do some planning on what's the best 00:35:50.929 --> 00:35:55.480 band to talk to Uncle Joe over there. in maybe 00:35:55.480 --> 00:36:00.679 Arizona or something. So using the sunspot numbers 00:36:00.679 --> 00:36:04.059 is just gives an indication of where what bands 00:36:04.059 --> 00:36:08.579 might be open. The lower bands, generally the 00:36:08.579 --> 00:36:11.679 ionization is always high enough that you don't 00:36:11.679 --> 00:36:15.719 have to worry about the level of ionization. 00:36:16.019 --> 00:36:18.199 There's always enough to refract those lower 00:36:18.199 --> 00:36:21.219 frequencies back to Earth and all you're left 00:36:21.219 --> 00:36:25.750 with is how much absorption is there, and will 00:36:25.750 --> 00:36:30.010 it put the signal below your noise, which generally 00:36:30.010 --> 00:36:34.570 is limited by external noise around you, man 00:36:34.570 --> 00:36:38.909 -made noise and atmospheric noise. Also in the 00:36:38.909 --> 00:36:43.369 bulletins are the geomagnetic indices, the K 00:36:43.369 --> 00:36:48.130 index and the A index. The K index is a three 00:36:48.130 --> 00:36:51.150 hour index of how the magnetic field of the Earth 00:36:51.150 --> 00:36:56.070 is varying or being disturbed. The A index is 00:36:56.070 --> 00:37:02.510 essentially the average of the eight three -hour 00:37:02.510 --> 00:37:07.889 K indices. So it tells you if the ionosphere 00:37:07.889 --> 00:37:11.010 is disturbed or not. In general, we'd like a 00:37:11.010 --> 00:37:13.769 quiet magnetic field, which means a low A and 00:37:13.769 --> 00:37:18.750 K indices. But of course, there are always exceptions. 00:37:19.849 --> 00:37:26.670 Sometimes high A and K indices are useful, like 00:37:26.670 --> 00:37:32.309 aurora at VHF frequencies. Sometimes the ionosphere 00:37:32.309 --> 00:37:38.570 can be enhanced at low latitudes by elevated 00:37:38.570 --> 00:37:44.070 K indices. So there are some general guidelines 00:37:44.070 --> 00:37:47.489 to follow, but just understand that it's a very 00:37:47.489 --> 00:37:51.130 complicated system up there. A lot of interesting 00:37:51.130 --> 00:37:53.329 things happen and the more you know about them 00:37:53.329 --> 00:37:55.849 the more you may be prepared to work something 00:37:55.849 --> 00:38:00.070 that your friends may not work. Carl Lutzl Schwab, 00:38:00.289 --> 00:38:03.690 K9LA is our guest. You can call in and ask him 00:38:03.690 --> 00:38:08.610 a question at 812 -NET -HAM -1. That's 812 -638 00:38:08.610 --> 00:38:12.570 -4261. We have just a few minutes remaining, 00:38:12.630 --> 00:38:16.670 so give us a call on there or on Skype. Give 00:38:16.670 --> 00:38:21.349 us an audio call or you can tweet us over on 00:38:21.349 --> 00:38:26.409 Twitter at HamTalk Live. One other thing I just 00:38:26.409 --> 00:38:33.349 thought of. Carl is Most of the time I'm in a 00:38:33.349 --> 00:38:39.969 hurry, you know either in a contest or I've got 00:38:39.969 --> 00:38:45.909 a few minutes to check things before I Go upstairs 00:38:45.909 --> 00:38:49.510 to the ham shack at school and get the kids on 00:38:49.510 --> 00:38:54.190 the air and So I go over to DX Summit or QRZ 00:38:54.190 --> 00:38:58.130 and look at that little You know band conditions 00:38:58.130 --> 00:39:03.730 thing and observed and predicted and and Sometimes 00:39:03.730 --> 00:39:08.489 it seems like that's accurate and and sometimes 00:39:08.489 --> 00:39:12.670 it doesn't So I'm wondering how much of that 00:39:12.670 --> 00:39:16.889 is Is just kind of like whether it's it's predicted 00:39:16.889 --> 00:39:23.389 and how much of that is is pure measurement Well 00:39:23.389 --> 00:39:28.280 most I think most of it is pure measurement Interestingly, 00:39:28.679 --> 00:39:33.019 the ionosphere varies on a day -to -day basis 00:39:33.019 --> 00:39:39.460 quite a bit. Although solar radiation instigates 00:39:39.460 --> 00:39:45.980 the ionization process, the condition of the 00:39:45.980 --> 00:39:50.480 Earth's magnetic field also comes into play in 00:39:50.480 --> 00:39:52.960 determining how much ionization there is at a 00:39:52.960 --> 00:39:56.260 given point, at a given time. And interestingly, 00:39:56.559 --> 00:40:00.239 we're discovering and doing much more research 00:40:00.239 --> 00:40:05.739 in events that happen in the lower atmosphere 00:40:05.739 --> 00:40:08.780 that couple up to the ionosphere and they have 00:40:08.780 --> 00:40:12.380 an impact on what the ionization is. So, you 00:40:12.380 --> 00:40:14.579 know, since we don't understand that, that's 00:40:14.579 --> 00:40:17.380 why we have a statistical model of the ionosphere. 00:40:20.110 --> 00:40:25.110 The best way to understand predictions are to 00:40:25.110 --> 00:40:29.809 realize that they're probably monthly median 00:40:29.809 --> 00:40:34.170 value, in other words, kind of almost like an 00:40:34.170 --> 00:40:37.949 average over a month's time frame. So on any 00:40:37.949 --> 00:40:41.769 given day within that month's time frame, it 00:40:41.769 --> 00:40:46.730 could be, you know, 10 to 30 % different, 10 00:40:46.730 --> 00:40:52.929 % higher to 30 % lower. So it's tough to predict 00:40:52.929 --> 00:40:58.570 propagation on a very short -term basis. In other 00:40:58.570 --> 00:41:01.429 words, what's happening today? We just don't 00:41:01.429 --> 00:41:05.030 have it yet. Of course, there's lots of work 00:41:05.030 --> 00:41:11.510 by the military, et cetera, in taking measurements 00:41:11.510 --> 00:41:15.789 from ionosans. and total electron content from 00:41:15.789 --> 00:41:21.469 GPS systems and assimilate that into a model 00:41:21.469 --> 00:41:25.590 to try and get a more up -to -date picture. I'm 00:41:25.590 --> 00:41:27.730 sure we'll see more and more to that and I know 00:41:27.730 --> 00:41:31.710 many universities are working on physical models 00:41:31.710 --> 00:41:33.929 of the ionosphere and the atmosphere, well the 00:41:33.929 --> 00:41:37.570 atmosphere really, that will hopefully give us 00:41:37.570 --> 00:41:41.780 what's the ionosphere doing right now. I find 00:41:41.780 --> 00:41:43.960 the best way to go find out how the bands are 00:41:43.960 --> 00:41:49.179 doing is, you know, I monitor a packet cluster. 00:41:49.900 --> 00:41:53.059 You know, it shows, you know, stations spot other 00:41:53.059 --> 00:41:56.260 stations. And that gives me a general, a good 00:41:56.260 --> 00:41:59.360 idea what the band is doing right now. On the 00:41:59.360 --> 00:42:04.300 higher bands, there are also the IARUNCDXF beacon 00:42:04.300 --> 00:42:09.980 system, where in a three -minute period, you 00:42:09.980 --> 00:42:13.320 could assess worldwide propagation on a given 00:42:13.320 --> 00:42:19.079 band because there are 18 beacons scattered all 00:42:19.079 --> 00:42:21.780 throughout the world. So that'll give you a good 00:42:21.780 --> 00:42:25.300 idea what's going on on 20, 17, 15, 12, and 10 00:42:25.300 --> 00:42:27.480 meters. Unfortunately, we don't have anything 00:42:27.480 --> 00:42:33.159 on the lower bands. But maybe someday we will. 00:42:33.719 --> 00:42:36.719 But there are ways to assess short -term what 00:42:36.719 --> 00:42:39.460 the bands are like. But those predictions you 00:42:39.460 --> 00:42:43.940 see on all the websites are just general. And 00:42:43.940 --> 00:42:47.460 realize that maybe one band up or down could 00:42:47.460 --> 00:42:52.139 really be what's happening. Just based on the 00:42:52.139 --> 00:42:56.079 predictions. All right. Very good. Well, thank 00:42:56.079 --> 00:42:58.440 you so much for coming on. We're just about out 00:42:58.440 --> 00:43:03.679 of time. So thank you for doing that. And I will 00:43:03.679 --> 00:43:07.739 get those websites up. online here after the 00:43:07.739 --> 00:43:12.260 show. So that is wrap for this week's edition 00:43:12.260 --> 00:43:15.000 of Ham Talk Live. I'd like to thank my guest 00:43:15.000 --> 00:43:18.619 Carl Lutzelschwaab, K9LA, and everyone out there 00:43:18.619 --> 00:43:21.460 in cyberspace for listening and calling in and 00:43:21.460 --> 00:43:24.019 invite you all back next Thursday night at 9 00:43:24.019 --> 00:43:27.239 p .m. Eastern Time when Richard Garriott de Caillou, 00:43:27.239 --> 00:43:31.619 W5KWQ, will be here to talk about operating ham 00:43:31.619 --> 00:43:35.929 radio from space and his new book called explore, 00:43:35.929 --> 00:43:39.530 create. Richard was one of the first space tourists 00:43:39.530 --> 00:43:42.949 on the International Space Station and the old 00:43:42.949 --> 00:43:46.389 timers like me may remember his father Owen W5LFL 00:43:46.389 --> 00:43:50.110 who was an astronaut on Skylab and the space 00:43:50.110 --> 00:43:52.329 shuttle and was the first to operate ham radio 00:43:52.329 --> 00:43:54.829 from space so I'm sure we'll talk a little bit 00:43:54.829 --> 00:43:58.750 about his dad as well and for a list of all of 00:43:58.750 --> 00:44:02.329 our upcoming guests visit hamtalklive .com and 00:44:02.329 --> 00:44:05.289 just click on the link there. For now, this is 00:44:05.289 --> 00:44:10.670 Neil Rapp, WB9VPG, saying 7 -3, 7 -5, and, as 00:44:10.670 --> 00:44:51.159 always, may the good DX be yours. 73, and good 00:44:51.159 --> 00:44:53.360 luck from HamTalk Live.