WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. Today, we are

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wrestling with, well, a high stakes financial

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mystery that played out just a few days ago.

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The date is November 28th, 2025. And silver prices

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didn't just move, they exploded. We saw the metal

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surge to a nominal record high, settling near

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$55 an ounce after touching peaks around $56.

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But here's the massive, just bizarre context

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for all of this. This record was set at the same

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time as a catastrophic, totally unexpected trading

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halt at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the

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CME. It's the perfect market paradox, isn't it?

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Yeah. You have this true decade spanning technical

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breakout happening at the exact moment the infrastructure

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that supports 90 % of global derivatives trading

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just went dark. Yeah. So our mission in this

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deep dive is to look past that dramatic technical

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failure and really figure out what was driving

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the price. I mean, was the CME halt the cause

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of the surge or was it just a distraction from

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these far deeper structural forces that have

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been building for years? Exactly. We're diving

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into a stack of market analysis and some proprietary

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research focused on precious metals, looking

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at everything from technical chart patterns to

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fundamental supply deficits and crucially, historical

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context. And just to set the scene, for you right

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away, we have to talk about the huge disparity

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in global pricing. As spot prices were consolidating

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near $55 here in the U .S., rates in India were

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equivalent to, what, roughly $33 .50 an ounce.

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That represents a 21 % monthly surge in Asia.

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Wow. It tells you immediately that the real action

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is happening in the physical metal, not just

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the paper contracts. That kind of disparity is

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highly unusual. And it's our first big clue.

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So it points to a physical tightness. A real

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strain on available inventory that the paper

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price just isn't fully capturing yet. OK, let's

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start with the drama, the charts, the mechanical

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breakdown. The initial excitement was purely

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technical. Oh, absolutely. Silver broke out above

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its prior all time nominal high. which were sitting

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around $53, $54 an ounce. It jumped over 3 %

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in that session. For chartists, this was the

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moment they'd been waiting for. And what's fascinating

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here is the sheer conviction. I mean, this wasn't

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some weak spike. The price blew past those previous

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highs with really strong backing from its support

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systems. You mean the moving averages? Specifically,

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the 10 -day and 50 -day moving averages were

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trailing right below, providing a floor. That

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suggests the momentum had really deep roots.

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And here's where it gets, I think, really interesting

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for anyone who studies long -term patterns. Our

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source material points out that this breakout

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completed a massive technical formation, a 45

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-year cup and handle pattern. That's right, a

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45 -year formation. Can you just break that down

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for our listeners who aren't traders? 45 years

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sounds insane. It is. So imagine a big U -shaped

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curve on a chart. That's the cup. It represents

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this long period of decline, followed by a full

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recovery back to the original peak. And then

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the handle is just a small consolidation zone

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right before the breakout. 45 years to form that

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kind of structure suggests we're seeing a permanent

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historical shift in the market's valuation, not

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just some temporary spike. And if we needed more

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confirmation, the gold -silver ratio fell decisively

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below 77 to 1 during this rally. And a ratio

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falling below 77 is a massive signal. It means

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it takes fewer than 77 ounces of silver to buy

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one ounce of gold. Historically, whenever silver

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starts closing that gap aggressively, it means

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silver is gaining its own independent strength.

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It's confirming its own bull market. Exactly.

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Ahead of gold. OK, so you have this elegant technical

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picture. Now let's contrast that with the real

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time mess. The failure at the CME. It wasn't

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a cyber attack. It wasn't manipulation. It was

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a literal cooling failure. That's the official

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story. And it is a bit embarrassing for an institution

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that big. The halt struck at 9 .44 p .m. Eastern

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on November 27th. The failure was at the Cyrusone

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data center in Illinois, which hosts the Globex

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platform. And the reason? Overheating servers.

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Overheating. Because a facility designed for

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2015 data loads just couldn't handle 2025 processing

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demands. It almost sounds like a metaphor for

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our infrastructure in general, honestly. It really

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does. So this cooling failure caused a complete

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halt of 90 % of global derivatives trading. And

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while traders are just sitting there staring

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at blank screens, wondering if this is a financial

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crisis, the market kept moving. Oh, wait, hold

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on. If 90 % of derivatives trading was halted,

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couldn't you argue the price surge was just some

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low -volume frenzy that the CME normally buffers

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out? That's a really important question. It gets

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to market psychology. But the evidence is pretty

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definitive because of the global nature of metals

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trading. During the time the CME was paused,

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markets like Shanghai and the over -the -counter

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OTC market, they kept going. And crucially, Silver

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hit its absolute peak of $56 .41, specifically

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in that OTC and Shanghai trading. So while the

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paper market was literally crashing, the price

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was still surging in physical locations. Precisely.

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The halt was like a perfect stress test for the

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price momentum. It proved the underlying will

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to buy was global and structural, and it wasn't

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dependent on one broken exchange. So if the surge

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wasn't a fluke, then we have to shift gears and

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talk fundamentals. The real why behind all this

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we talk a lot about silver as a monetary metal,

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but its foundation today is industrial Absolutely.

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We have to remember that industrial applications

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are now about 50 % of all silver consumption

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This isn't just a shiny metal anymore. It's a

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critical component in the biggest growth sectors

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of the global economy Let's break that down.

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What specific non -negotiable applications are

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driving that 50 %? Well, the list is growing,

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but the big hitters are solar photovoltaics,

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advanced electronics, electric vehicles, the

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EVs, and increasingly complex medical devices.

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Let's talk about solar for a second. Sure. Silver

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is the most conductive and reflective material

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known to man. So when you need to capture and

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transfer electricity in a solar panel for say

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two decades, you can't just swap it out for copper

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or aluminum without a huge loss of efficiency.

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So that demand is inelastic. Completely. The

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global push to transition to clean energy means

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we need astronomical amounts of silver. And that's

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just the industrial side. We know investment

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demand is adding fuel to the fire. It is. We've

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seen exchange -traded product, the ETP inflows,

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that's metal hold by funds, reach 95 million

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ounces recently. That reflects some safe haven

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demand, but the investment volume is really just

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reacting to the structural problem. And what

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is that core structural problem? The supply deficit.

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And stress the word deficit. This isn't a single

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year shortage. We are now in a multi -year deficit

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situation that is persistent. It's long running,

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exceeding seven years now by some counts. We're

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just consuming more than we're pulling out of

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the ground. That's the bottom line. Yeah. And

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on the supply side, the constraints are severe.

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Mine production is flat, maybe even declining

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because of high operating costs. And recycling

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efforts, you know, taking silver from old electronics.

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They just can't fill the gap. So you have this

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high tech inelastic demand paired with stagnant

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costly supply. That sounds like a fundamental

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crisis. And you can see that crisis when you

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look at the stockpiles. Inventory levels on the

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major exchanges, ComEx and London, they're sounding

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alarms. They've hit historical lows. And that's

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what's driving those physical premiums in Asia.

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Exactly. It underscores the huge disparity between

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the paper price and the actual metal available

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for delivery. The physical market is undeniably

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tight. It sounds less like a temporary bubble

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and more like the market is finally waking up

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to a severe multi -year physical imbalance. That

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is the essential conclusion from the data. Yes.

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OK, let's unpack some history because this whole

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situation feels. intensely familiar. This isn't

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the first time Silver has had a dramatic late

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year breakout. We have to compare this to the

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infamous Silver mania from what, nearly 46 years

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ago. The echoes are striking. In late November

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1979, Silver had this massive surge going from

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about $6 to $17 .50 an ounce. It aligns perfectly

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with the timing of this current breakout. And

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that 1979 surge was the one that ultimately peaked

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at $50 in January of 1980. That's the one. And

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the response from the exchanges back then was

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immediate panic. They started raising margins.

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Repeatedly. They implemented position limits,

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used liquidation -only rules, anything to stop

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the runaway market. And we're seeing the same

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playbook now. CME has raised silver and gold

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futures margins by five to nine percent multiple

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times since September. But if we want a true

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honest perspective on how big this $56 high actually

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is, we have to talk about what that $50 peak

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from 1980 means today. This is the aha moment

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for any investor. When we adjust that $50 peak

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from 1980 for the growth in the M2 money supply

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and GDP, that peak equates to over $500 today.

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Over $500? That is a jarring number. For listeners

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who aren't familiar, why is M2 the right metric,

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not just consumer inflation? That's a great question.

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Simple inflation, like CPI, just measures the

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cost of goods. But M2 money supply measures the

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total amount of money available in the economy.

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Cash, deposits, all of it. This is the total

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monetary base. Right. And since 1980, that base

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has expanded massively. Using M2 gives you a

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truer sense of the dollar's relative purchasing

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power. It quantifies the erosion of the fiat

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currency itself. So what you're saying is, despite

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setting a new nominal record at $56, silver isn't

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even close to the real monetary ceiling it hit

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nearly half a century ago. Not even in the same

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ballpark. It confirms that this current run is

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being driven by industrial demand and real shortages,

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not the pure speculative monetary euphoria that

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we saw in 1980. And speaking of that speculation,

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there's a vital difference in market structure

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today, isn't there? Yes. In 1979, the market

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was dominated by concentrated positions, the

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famous Hunt Brothers. That made it easier for

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regulators to step in and break the speculation.

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There was a clear target. A very clear target.

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Today, the market lacks a single dominant player.

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It's fragmented across global exchanges, Shanghai,

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Comex, India. That dilutes the effect of any

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single regulatory action. It makes global momentum

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much, much harder to stop. And the U .S. government

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now designating silver as a critical mineral?

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That adds another layer that didn't exist in

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79. That designation is huge. It signals that

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silver is essential to domestic industry and

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national defense. It shifts its profile from

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just a monetary hedge to a strategic necessity.

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It makes the supply deficit a matter of national

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economic security. It does. So what does this

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all mean in the bigger picture? How are professional

00:10:42.470 --> 00:10:46.230
analysts interpreting this sudden jump? Is it

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inflation fears, an industrial boom, or just

00:10:49.429 --> 00:10:52.009
technical euphoria? Well, if we look at the broader

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context, precious metals are obviously influenced

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by macro factors. Fed policy, inflation, geopolitics.

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A softening dollar supports commodities, and

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that's part of the tailwind we're seeing. And

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what are the specific expert takeaways on this

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November surge? The experts in our sources are

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heavily leaning toward fundamentals over the

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noise. Mike Maloney, for example, he highlighted

00:11:14.350 --> 00:11:16.470
the monetary signals, the long -term currency

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devaluation, and he dismissed the CME glitch

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as just market theater. Right. Similarly, Ben

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Rickert pointed to the trend of fiat erosion,

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which aligns perfectly with those Silver Institute

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deficit forecasts. They're all basically saying

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the fundamentals finally caught up to the charts.

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But we always need a balanced view. What are

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the potential headwinds? What could possibly

00:11:35.440 --> 00:11:38.980
slow this down? There are always risks. First,

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if recycling efforts can become significantly

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more efficient, that could ease some supply pressure

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over time. Hasn't happened yet, but it's possible.

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Okay. Second, and a broughed global economic

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slowdown would curb industrial demand. Fewer

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solar panels, fewer EVs that would remove that

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critical 50 % support base. And from a technical

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trader's perspective, what level are they watching

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to signal a reversal? Any sustained technical

00:12:05.809 --> 00:12:08.350
breakdown below the 50 -day moving average, that

00:12:08.350 --> 00:12:11.009
would be a major red flag. For now, the momentum

00:12:11.009 --> 00:12:13.029
is holding, but traders are watching that level

00:12:13.029 --> 00:12:16.669
obsessively. So this deep dive shows pretty definitively

00:12:16.669 --> 00:12:19.009
that the record high wasn't caused by the CME

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failure. The failure actually proved the underlying

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strength. The surge was driven by fundamental

00:12:24.279 --> 00:12:26.820
supply deficits projected for a fifth straight

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year now and this incredible industrial demand

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from solar and EVs. The CME halt was a major

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disruption, but it just confirmed the momentum

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was global. It wasn't confined to one paper exchange.

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It confirmed the structural drivers are now overriding

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the volatility we usually see from paper trading.

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The price is finally reflecting a true physical

00:12:45.080 --> 00:12:47.940
shortage. And that leads us to a final provocative

00:12:47.940 --> 00:12:50.610
thought. The source materials clearly show the

00:12:50.610 --> 00:12:53.950
1980 silver peak is equivalent to over $500 today.

00:12:54.769 --> 00:12:56.649
So considering that context, and the fact we

00:12:56.649 --> 00:12:59.710
now have a globally fragmented market with persistent

00:12:59.710 --> 00:13:02.830
structural deficits and silver is a critical

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industrial mineral, are regulatory margin adjustments,

00:13:05.950 --> 00:13:09.129
these small 5 % to 9 % hikes, are they truly

00:13:09.129 --> 00:13:11.029
enough to contain the momentum at this time?

00:13:11.370 --> 00:13:13.429
When you have a critical industrial necessity

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that is also a monetary metal and the physical

00:13:16.129 --> 00:13:18.590
supply is dwindling, you create a perfect storm.

00:13:18.809 --> 00:13:21.809
The question really is, what does that dual roll

00:13:21.809 --> 00:13:24.269
of silver mean for its long -term volatility

00:13:24.269 --> 00:13:26.950
and its eventual price ceiling in a world that

00:13:26.950 --> 00:13:29.409
is starved for supply? Something for you to mull

00:13:29.409 --> 00:13:31.590
over as you watch the charts and the news over

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the coming weeks. Thank you for joining us for

00:13:33.190 --> 00:13:33.730
the deep dive.
