WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. Today, we've got

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a really interesting stack of market research

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in front of us, all centered on the precious

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metal sector. And one metal in particular, right?

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We're talking about silver. We are talking about

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silver. And it's fascinating because it has this

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kind of dual identity. It's a precious metal,

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an asset, but it's also a critical industrial

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component. Well, that's the conflict, isn't it?

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It's one of the most vital industrial inputs

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on the planet. Exactly. So when you think of

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silver, I bet you probably think of these wild,

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massive price swings. You know, volatility that

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makes even gold look, well, look pretty tame.

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That's the common perception for sure. Our mission

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today is to really cut through that perception.

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We're going to use these sources to separate

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the myth of silver's instability from the reality

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of what's driving its price right now. And the

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main takeaway from all this research is pretty

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powerful. It suggests that idea of extreme volatility.

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It's mostly based on a couple of historical anomalies.

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If you look at the modern market, silver's price

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movements today are, well, they're mainly a reflection

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of real industrial demand and, you know, broader

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macroeconomic conditions. That is a huge reframing.

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Yeah. We're basically saying silver isn't defined

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by speculation anymore. It's defined by its actual

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utility. I think that's a perfect way to put

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it. So today we're going to unpack those two

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big historical events that created the volatility

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myth. Then we'll get into the industries that

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are consuming most of the silver today. And finally,

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we have to talk about the gold silver ratio.

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It's a key valuation metric. Let's do it. So

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let's start with busting that myth. Where does

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this idea that silver is just too volatile really

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come from? It really comes down to two extraordinary

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periods where speculation just completely took

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over and distorted the price. You have to understand

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them to, you know, kind of put them aside. OK,

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so the first one is the big one, the one everyone's

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heard of, the Hunt Brothers. We're talking 1979,

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1980. Yes, the Hunt Brothers saga. For anyone

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who might not know the details, just how big

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was this? What was the scale of what they were

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trying to do? Oh, it was. I mean, it was almost

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biblical in scale. The Hunt brothers, they genuinely

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believed that paper money was failing and that

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gold and silver were the only true stores of

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value. OK. So they decided to try and corner

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the entire global market for physical silver,

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not just a few contracts, the whole thing, using

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massive, massive leverage. The whole thing. So

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at their peak, how much did they actually control?

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Get this. At their peak, they effectively controlled

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an estimated two -thirds of the world's privately

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held physical silver. Two -thirds? That's...

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That's almost unbelievable. It is and this huge

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speculative push It just artificially drove the

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price from around $10 an ounce to nearly $50

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an ounce in just a few months It's just two months

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and that $50 peak had nothing to do with the

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real economy. You know, there wasn't a sudden

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explosion in demand for Electronics in 1980 is

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pure speculation purely and when all that leverage

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came crashing down on what they call silver Thursday

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in March 1980 the price just plummeted. That

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spike and that crash, it left a permanent scar

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in the market's memory. So that's anomaly number

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one. A completely artificial leveraged event.

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What about the second one? It happened much more

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recently. Right, that takes us to 2010 -2011.

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And the spike happened during the first big wave

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of quantitative easing. QE. The Fed was pumping

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huge amounts of liquidity into the system after

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the financial crisis. Exactly. And silver jumped

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dramatically again. So for our audience, why

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does an action like QE cause so much speculative

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interest in a metal like silver? It really comes

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down to fear. I mean, quantitative easing, this

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big expansion of the money supply, it brings

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up the fear of really high inflation, of currency

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debasement. People get worried their dollars

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will be worth less. Precisely. And when investors

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get scared about that, they rush into hard assets.

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They buy gold. They buy silver to protect their

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wealth. But again, that price jump in 2011 wasn't

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because factories suddenly needed more silver.

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It was driven by sentiment. So if we just mentally

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take those two events off the historical chart,

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the Hahn Brothers corner, and the QE fear spike.

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What does Silver's price behavior actually look

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like? It looks much, much steadier. It's really

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fascinating. When you remove those anomalies,

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silver's long term price action, it actually

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shows patterns that are pretty consistent with

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the broader market. It tracks economic cycles.

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This is why we have to focus on what's driving

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it today. And that means looking at industrial

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consumption overwhelmingly. So let's talk about

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that utility. What is the actual structural need

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for silver in the economy right now? OK, this

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is the most important number to remember from

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this whole deep dive. Brilliant. Current analysis

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shows that industrial demand now accounts for

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about 60 % of all global silver consumption.

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60%. That's not a small piece of the pie. That

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is the pie. It is the dominant factor. It's not

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a marginal use case anymore. Compare that to

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gold, where it's still mostly about jewelry and

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investment. So this huge industrial demand, it's

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because of silver's unique properties, right?

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Its conductivity is off the charts. Unparalleled

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conductivity, yes. And also its antimicrobial

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qualities. So what are the big engines consuming

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all this silver? Where is it all going? Well,

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the list is basically a roadmap for the 21st

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century economy. The number one driver, and it's

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growing exponentially, is renewable energy. You

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mean solar panels? Specifically solar panels.

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Silver powder is absolutely crucial for photovoltaic

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cells. Without it, they just can't conduct electricity

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efficiently. How much silver are we talking about

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per panel? It's about 20 grams per panel, which

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doesn't sound like a lot. But when you multiply

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that by the sheer global scale of solar installation,

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It's massive. So as the world keeps pushing towards

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net zero goals and this energy transition gets

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faster, silver demand is basically locked in.

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It has to grow. It's structurally locked in.

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Then you have electric vehicle manufacturing.

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Where is it in an EV? Electrical connections,

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battery management systems, even in the glass

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for defrosting. You also have 5G infrastructure,

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which needs higher conductivity. And then you

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have medical tech. data centers. So these aren't

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just, you know, passing trends. These are huge

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generational shifts in our infrastructure. Exactly.

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But all this demand runs into a really interesting

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supply problem. A bottleneck. That's right. And

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this is a key point from the World Silver Survey

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for 2025. It highlighted a major constraint.

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Silver is mostly mined as a byproduct. Okay,

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explain what that means in practical terms. If

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a huge new solar project needs, I don't know,

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a thousand tons of silver, why can't a mining

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company just go open a new silver mine? Because

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dedicated primary silver mines are actually quite

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rare, geologically speaking. Most silver is extracted

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alongside other metals like lead, zinc, and copper.

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It's the secondary thing they pull out of the

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ground. So the supply of silver isn't really

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driven by the demand for silver. Exactly. The

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supply is inelastic. If demand for solar panels

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suddenly doubles, the mining industry can't just

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decide to produce more silver. They have to wait

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for the demand and the price for zinc or lead

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to go up first. So if the global economy slows

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down and, say, zinc demand falls, silver production

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could actually fall with it. Even if EV and solar

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manufacturers are screaming for more silver,

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yes, it creates this natural supply squeeze whenever

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tech demand is high. That dual identity again.

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An indispensable modern metal whose supply is

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tied to these older industrial metals. It's a

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fascinating dynamic. It really limits how quickly

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the supply side can respond, which puts natural

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upward pressure on the price. So that 60 % industrial

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use provides a strong demand floor. But silver

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is still a precious asset. What drives the investment

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side of things? That brings us right back to

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the macro picture. The investment appeal is still

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heavily influenced by, well, economic uncertainty,

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geopolitical stress, and most importantly, monetary

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policy. The Federal Reserve. Central banks, but

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especially the Fed. And when we're talking about

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the Fed's impact. We really need to talk about

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real interest rates. Can you just quickly break

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that down for us? Sure. It's a simple but crucial

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concept. The real interest rate is just the nominal

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interest rate, the one the Fed sets, minus the

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current rate of inflation. So it's the real return

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you get on your cash. It's the real return. And

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the key thing is that precious metals like silver

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and gold are non -yielding assets. They don't

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pay you interest. Right. Your silver bar doesn't

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send you a dividend check. Exactly. So if real

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interest rates are high, if you can get a great

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safe return from a treasury bond, then holding

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a non -yielding asset like silver becomes less

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attractive, there's an opportunity cost. Which

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pushes the price down. It tends to. But when

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real interest rates fall or even go negative,

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that opportunity cost disappears. Suddenly, holding

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a hard asset that preserves value becomes much

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more attractive. And when these macro shifts

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happen, How does silver typically move compared

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to gold? It often shows correlated moves but

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they're usually more pronounced, more leveraged.

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Why is that? It's a smaller market, for one,

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and because of that dual identity we keep coming

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back to. It's part industrial, part monetary

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asset. So when gold moves up on falling rates,

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silver tends to move up further and faster. And

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we've definitely seen some of that this year

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in 2025. The sources point to some pretty big

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gains. We have. The rallies in 2025 have pushed

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prices to levels we haven't seen in over a decade.

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I think the year to date increase was something

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like 45 percent. And that momentum is really

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supported by. data. We're seeing inflation fears

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recede a bit and the market is pricing in fewer

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Fed rate hikes. That's effectively lowering the

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expectation for real interest rates. So the macro

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tailwinds are there sitting on top of that rock

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-solid industrial demand floor. That's the picture.

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This all leads us perfectly into a really critical

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valuation tool that analysts use all the time.

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the gold -silver ratio. Let's really unpack this.

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Absolutely. It's a simple idea, but it's a very

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profound metric. So what is it? It's just a measure

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of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy

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one single ounce of gold. It gives you a sense

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of relative value. And where is that ratio sitting

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right now in 2025? Today, it's floating around

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80 to 86. So you need about 80 to 86 ounces of

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silver to buy one ounce of gold. OK, 80 to 1.

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Is that high or low? What's the context? It's

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very high, historically speaking. term historical

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average, going back centuries, is much lower,

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typically somewhere between 50 and 60 to 1. So

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why is that historical average so important?

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Does the ratio always try to get back to that

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50 or 60 mark? It's a powerful tendency. It's

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a classic case of mean reversion. When the ratio

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gets stretched really wide, like it is now, it's

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often a signal that one metal is getting ahead

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of the other, or one is lagging. And historically,

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the relationship between the two just sort of

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pulls it back toward that average. It acts like

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a magnet, yeah. So an elevated ratio of 80 to

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1 suggests that silver is basically undervalued

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relative to gold. That is precisely the implication.

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Historically, when we see the ratio this high,

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it has often preceded these big catch up rallies

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for silver, where it gains ground really fast

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against gold and the ratio tightens. But analysts

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don't just look at this number in a vacuum, right?

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How does it connect back to that industrial demand

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story? Well, that's what makes it so compelling

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right now. The fact that the ratio is so high,

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80 to one, in spite of the intense structural

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and growing industrial demand for silver, it

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just underscores the potential undervaluation.

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the market still hasn't fully priced in the reality

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of these supply constraints and the demand from

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the green energy and tech transitions. The high

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ratio basically confirms the fundamental story.

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Okay, we have to keep a balanced view here. The

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fundamental drivers seem really strong, but what

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are the short -term risks? What could still create

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instability? You always have to monitor the external

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factors. I mean, an unexpected move from the

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Federal Reserve on rates could still shock the

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market. Because it would instantly change that

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real interest rate calculation. Instantly. And

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currency fluctuations are still key. A much stronger

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U .S. dollar typically puts pressure on metals

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prices. And what about on the industrial side?

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Are there any risks to that 60 % demand figure?

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The big one, the one you always have to keep

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in the back of your mind, is technological substitution.

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Someone invent something better? Right. We have

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to watch for advancements in material science.

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If, for example, a cheaper, more abundant material

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was developed that could replace silver in solar

00:12:33.799 --> 00:12:36.299
cells with the same efficiency, that would be

00:12:36.299 --> 00:12:38.340
a game changer. Is there anything on the horizon?

00:12:38.730 --> 00:12:41.409
Right now, no. There's no viable substitute that

00:12:41.409 --> 00:12:43.970
can match Silver's performance, but you can never

00:12:43.970 --> 00:12:46.830
stop watching innovation. This has been an incredibly

00:12:46.830 --> 00:12:49.789
thorough deep dive. So let's bring it all home.

00:12:50.549 --> 00:12:52.570
What's the main takeaway for someone trying to

00:12:52.570 --> 00:12:55.710
get a clear picture of this commodity? I think

00:12:55.710 --> 00:12:58.950
the main takeaway is this. Silver today is a

00:12:58.950 --> 00:13:02.320
mature market. Its price is shaped by two very

00:13:02.320 --> 00:13:05.120
real anchors, fundamental industrial need on

00:13:05.120 --> 00:13:07.759
one side and a clear macroeconomic policy on

00:13:07.759 --> 00:13:10.740
the other. And the old story, the shadow of speculative

00:13:10.740 --> 00:13:13.019
madness from the Hunt Brothers. It's brief for

00:13:13.019 --> 00:13:15.159
headlines, but it really doesn't define how silver

00:13:15.159 --> 00:13:17.600
behaves today. So understanding that the volatility

00:13:17.600 --> 00:13:19.820
myth comes from a couple of historical outliers,

00:13:20.220 --> 00:13:22.779
while 60 % of today's demand comes from these

00:13:22.779 --> 00:13:25.460
essential growing high tech industries. That's

00:13:25.460 --> 00:13:27.940
the key. It forces you to stop thinking of silver

00:13:27.940 --> 00:13:31.139
as just this old archaic asset and start seeing

00:13:31.139 --> 00:13:33.919
it as a critical piece of our future infrastructure.

00:13:34.500 --> 00:13:36.759
And that leads us to our final provocative thought

00:13:36.759 --> 00:13:39.700
for you to think about. If 50 percent of silver's

00:13:39.700 --> 00:13:41.940
demand is structurally locked into the global

00:13:41.940 --> 00:13:44.980
energy transition, we're talking solar, EVs,

00:13:45.139 --> 00:13:48.620
5G, what does that ongoing non -negotiable need

00:13:48.620 --> 00:13:51.399
imply for silver's long term behavior compared

00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:54.669
to a purely monetary asset like gold? Its path

00:13:54.669 --> 00:13:57.049
forward might have less to do with fear and more

00:13:57.049 --> 00:13:59.850
to do with fundamental global growth. The utility

00:13:59.850 --> 00:14:02.169
is the anchor now. A lot to think about there.

00:14:02.289 --> 00:14:03.309
We'll see you on the next Deep Dive.
