WEBVTT

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The views expressed in this podcast are solely

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our own. This information is provided for your

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convenience. It does not constitute legal advice,

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nor does it create an attorney client relationship.

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Prior results do not guarantee similar outcomes.

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This is attorney advertised. Enjoy. Hi, welcome

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again to Red Flags Rising. My name is Mike Huneke.

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I'm a partner at Morgan Lewis and Bockius LLP.

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in their International Trade and National Security

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Practice Group. Today is Friday, June 19th, 2026,

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just after 1 p .m. U .S. Eastern. With me, as

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always, is my great friend and the founder and

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chief solutions officer of Red Flags Rising Solutions

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LLC, Brent Carlson. Brent, how are you doing

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today? Excellent, Mike. Great to be back here

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talking to some important developments that are

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going through the export controls world and the

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world of geopolitics that drives it. Absolutely,

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Brent. And this is a bit of a retake on our part.

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We thought we had the AI diffusion topic mastered

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a few weeks ago, and it turns out we didn't.

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There were some developments the day of recording

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that we decided needed to be updated. And then,

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frankly, we just decided enough had happened

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in the past two weeks to do a reset, take a fresh

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look, if you will, at the topic of the AI diffusion

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rule. Is it dead? Is it alive? What happened

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to the intent to rescind that was announced previously?

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And where are we today? And what this shows in

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these latest developments over the AI diffusion

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rule and that guidance that came out of BIS on

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May 31st is that there is a lot of movement going

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on in the backfield. There is a lot of pressure

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that's building in Congress for action. In the

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world of geopolitics, that's all moving around

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there too. All these factors together are creating

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a perfect storm where we're going to see a lot

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more in the export controls world, not even on

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the horizon, but imminently. Absolutely. So we've

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got actions in Congress. Lots to talk about there.

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I think 22 individual bills were voted out of

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committee in the House not that long ago to join

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several other key pieces of legislation that

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were already pending before one House or the

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other. These laws could dramatically increase

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penalties. They could increase the statute of

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limitations. They could require certain controls

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on certain items. Lots to unpack there. And then,

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Brent, we had new guidance from BIS on a Sunday,

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May 31st, related to... the AI diffusion rule.

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And then we had an is informed letter issued

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to a major AI company on June 12th. There's just

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a lot of different things going on here. As you've

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said many times quite well, Brent, you have geopolitical

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pressures affecting national political pressures,

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driving enforcement priorities for the regulators.

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We're seeing all of that play out right in front

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of us in real time. Brent, why don't we unpack

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these developments and maybe let's start with

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the legislative activity because to me, part

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of the value proposition of compliance is determined

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by the potential fines, the potential consequences

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of non -compliance, many of these laws would

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impact that. So what do we see in the recent

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bills that were enacted and some other pieces

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of legislation out there? Yeah, you bet. So these

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all cleared the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

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They may be taken up for a vote or may be included

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in the National Defense Authorization Act this

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year. So we might see them come through before

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the end of the year. There's some big changes

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coming down the road that, again, reinforce the

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message that there's a lot of focus on export

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controls, in strengthening them, making them

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more effective, and quite honestly, giving more

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tools for enforcement. Right off the top, there's

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one where maximum penalties would be increased

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to four times the value of the transactions,

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or $1 .2 million per violation, whichever is

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greater. Currently, it's twice the value of the

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transaction, so that can add up very quickly.

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There's another bill that increases the statute

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of limitations. for export control violations

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up to 10 years, and then another bill that creates

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a dedicated export controls whistleblower program.

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So we're seeing a lot more tools and firepower

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that's going to be added to the export controls

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enforcement side. Brent, with some very high

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-profile prosecutions being unsealed recently

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and very high -profile defendants being arrested,

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members of Congress have already pointed to those

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indictments and those arrests as support for

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the bills that they're championing and for Congress.

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to take some action. So certainly, at least in

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the current environment, we expect that Congress

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will continue to be pushing on this legislation.

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These were overwhelmingly bipartisan in terms

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of the support. Some of these were like 44 to

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0. The most contested one was 36 to 8. So it's

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like these things are not real items of contention.

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If you go back to the Senate side, you can see

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Senators Warren and Banks or Senator Cotton all

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joining together for this message. One of the

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themes here that's reflected in this strong bipartisan

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support across both the House and the Senate

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is you see a lot of people that are frustrated

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with export controls and the perception that

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they haven't been as effective as they should

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be. Now you're seeing people looking for solutions.

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It's important. to kind of look at where things

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are at. On the administrative side, BIS is really

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looking to find its footing. There has been pressure

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on BIS to step things up for a very long time.

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Of course, there's going to be some disruption

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in any organization when it's looking to regain

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its footing on whatever mission it's on. But

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then look at what's happening on the enforcement

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side, and you can see a steady uptake. In 2024,

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there were $16 million in enforcement penalties.

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Compared to 2025, you see 324. A lot of those

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cases were carried over from the prior administration

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to the current administration. It's not like

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the current administration came in and then dropped

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these cases. Again, look at the signals coming

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from BIS. It's less in these long, complex rules

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and more on enforcement actions. So I think it's

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very important to be reading those settlement

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agreements in these enforcement actions because

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that is where the signals from BIS are going

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to be coming from. Absolutely. And look, David

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Peters is a former DOJ prosecutor. He's going

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to be speaking through his charging. He's going

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to be speaking through the decisions that they

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bring. I think that's the ball to keep your eye

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on. What's really in focus here are data centers

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and AI broadly. AI runs on data centers. The

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crux of this thing is not just that, the future

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of modern warfare revolves around AI and how

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that's going to be manifested in drones and in

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cyber weapons and developing biological weapons,

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you name it. It's not the future of warfare,

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it's the here and now. That's why this stuff

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is really accelerating and there's a lot of focus

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on it. Let's talk about that May 31st rule and

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how that reflects back from the AI diffusion

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rule. And then talk about the is informed letter

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that was sent just last week. I think this kind

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of shows some of the trends that are going on.

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Look, there's been a lot of effort by the administration,

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as we've talked about in the pod, to promote

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the export of the American AI stack and to help

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companies really place American technology and

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American designed items with allies and countries

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that are key to the current geopolitical competition

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that's going on. A very important development

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in this respect at the end of the last administration

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was the AI diffusion rule. We've talked about

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that in detail in an earlier podcast from last

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year. That rule rather ambitiously didn't entirely

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scrap the prior controls. Far from it. It tried

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to really meld them into what was essentially

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a global rationing system, very similar to what

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the Allied powers ended up doing in World War

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I when they got frustrated and realized that

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Ship -by -ship end -user verifications for coal

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and other inputs for steel were not really that

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effective, and they were relying on self -certification,

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so what good were they anyway? Instead, they

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knew what the level of steel -related imports

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into the Netherlands and Switzerland, who were

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neutral in that war, were pre -war, and they

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felt comfortable that if at least they could

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keep Germany's wartime production capped at what

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it was at pre -war, that still would have a very

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significant and material impact on the German

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war machine, and it did. So here they tried to

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create that essentially for the diffusion of

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AI technology through a three -tiered system

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of countries that would allocate TPP or total

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processing power. This global rationing system

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was roundly criticized by the incoming administration.

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The key deadline was that although the rule,

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when announced by the Biden administration, was

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an interim final rule with immediate effect,

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it delayed any compliance requirement or expectation

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until May 15th of 2025. So it was increasing

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speculation leading up to mid -May of last year.

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What's going to happen with that rule? Are they

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going to keep it? Are they going to scrap it?

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Do I have to comply? How can I comply? How do

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I calculate TPP? All of these things. On May

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13th, by a press release, BIS announced a rescission

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of the Biden administration's AI diffusion rule

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while rolling out additional steps to strengthen

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export controls and semiconductors worldwide.

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On the one hand, they're getting rid of this

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global rationing system, but on the other hand,

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they're announcing guidance and policy documents

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increasing essentially due diligence expectations.

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The press release went on to state, the AI diffusion

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rule was issued on January 15th, 2025 with compliance

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requirements that were set to come into effect

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on May 15th, 2025. These new requirements would

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have stifled American innovation and saddled

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companies with burdensome new regulatory requirements.

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The AI diffusion rule also would have undermined

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U .S. diplomatic relations with dozens of countries

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by downgrading them to second tier status. Obviously,

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what we've seen since has been the prioritization

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of exports to the United Arab Emirates and the

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Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular. Both of

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those countries would not have been top tier

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countries under the Biden era diffusion rule.

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In the third paragraph, it said, BIS plans to

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publish a regulation formalizing the rescission

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and will issue a replacement rule in the future.

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Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and

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Security Jeffrey Kessler has instructed BIS enforcement

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officials not to enforce the Biden administration's

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AI diffusion rules stating the Trump administration

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will pursue a bold inclusive strategy to American

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AI technology with trusted foreign countries

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around the world while keeping the technology

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out of the hands of our adversaries. At the same

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time we reject the Biden administration's attempt

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to impose its own ill -conceived and counterproductive

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AI policies on the American people. In the same

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breath, BIS announced guidance alerting industry

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to the risks of using PRC advanced computing

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integrated circuits, specifically mentioning

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chips from Huawei. It issued guidance warning

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the public broadly about the potential consequences

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of allowing US AI chips to be used for training

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and inference of Chinese AI models. And it issued

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guidance on how to protect supply chains against

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diversion tactics, setting out lists of red flags

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and due diligence questions that companies should

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be expected to follow and be aware of. I think

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where this cuts down to, though, is whether or

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not there is the requirement, the rule from November

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2023. It comes down to basically advanced computing

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items, the AI chips and all the electronic assemblies

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that go around them. These are the 3A090 items

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and the 4A090 items. Is a license required if

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we're exporting these items to these PRC companies

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building data centers outside of the PRC? That's

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what it comes down to. Where there was confusion

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here was that the AI diffusion rule moved that

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November 2023 rule from one part of the EAR to

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another. There's this confusion over, was this

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a loophole that allowed these advanced computing

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items to be sold to these PRC entities globally

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outside of China? On two different levels, the

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answer here is no. You see the May 31st guidance

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say that there always was required, but looking

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at this, like we've just done right here, that

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November 2023 rule has always been in force.

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The AI diffusion rule just moved from one part

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of the EAR to another. There's the other issue,

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too, where it's like the AI diffusion rule was

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never formally rescinded. The Government Accountability

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Office issued a report just a few weeks ago,

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just before this all came out, basically coming

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to that same conclusion that this rule was never

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officially rescinded, so these are still laws

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on the books. That GAO report also reflects that

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there is congressional scrutiny on all this as

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well to maintain the effectiveness of export

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controls. But one thing I think is really interesting

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in the dialogue that's been going back and forth

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is people calling these loopholes. I don't think

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there was a loophole that ever was here. If somebody

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thought it was a loophole, they're probably going

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to meet with a liability pitfall. Because another

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thing that I would expect looking at that May

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31st guidance that came out reiterating that

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this license requirement was still in place is

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enforcement activity. You know, Brent, when I

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was thinking about this as we were preparing

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for this podcast, I think a fundamental maybe

00:12:59.990 --> 00:13:02.970
gap in some people's thinking around the rescission

00:13:02.970 --> 00:13:06.370
was that it was affirmatively getting rid of

00:13:06.370 --> 00:13:09.370
a bunch of things. What it really did was reset

00:13:09.370 --> 00:13:13.429
the clock back to January 14th, 2026, plus the

00:13:13.429 --> 00:13:17.250
guidance that was added in May of 2025. And we

00:13:17.250 --> 00:13:19.830
just went back to that point. So when you talk

00:13:19.830 --> 00:13:22.679
about a rule being rescinded, And as you said,

00:13:22.740 --> 00:13:24.639
some of the rule was substantive. Some of it

00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:27.879
was structural. It just reorganized existing

00:13:27.879 --> 00:13:30.259
requirements without changing them. It just put

00:13:30.259 --> 00:13:32.600
those back. Now, part of the confusion, too,

00:13:32.659 --> 00:13:35.299
is if you were coming to this area of law and

00:13:35.299 --> 00:13:38.200
regulation new, you might reasonably think I'm

00:13:38.200 --> 00:13:40.419
going to go look at the regulations. And those

00:13:40.419 --> 00:13:42.860
didn't change. I think that was a real challenge

00:13:42.860 --> 00:13:44.960
for a lot of people. If you're in the moment

00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.139
just trying to pull up online, okay, what's the

00:13:47.139 --> 00:13:48.700
rule for this? What's the rule for that? There

00:13:48.700 --> 00:13:51.139
was nothing in the Federal Register that caused

00:13:51.139 --> 00:13:53.480
the Code of Federal Regulations to be actually

00:13:53.480 --> 00:13:56.159
updated, to be replaced with a placeholder, to

00:13:56.159 --> 00:13:59.559
have a flashing red light on them. Anecdotally,

00:13:59.580 --> 00:14:02.240
when companies then were looking at what would

00:14:02.240 --> 00:14:06.279
be the expectations for them to receive controlled

00:14:06.279 --> 00:14:10.500
chips, say, in 2027 at a new data center, There

00:14:10.500 --> 00:14:13.080
was a question like, what is the actual regulation

00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:16.179
going to be that we have to comply with? In practice,

00:14:16.360 --> 00:14:18.840
what was really being targeted, and frankly,

00:14:18.899 --> 00:14:20.820
what they really were saying publicly they did

00:14:20.820 --> 00:14:23.500
not like, was this global rationing system. If

00:14:23.500 --> 00:14:25.340
you look at the authorizations for some countries

00:14:25.340 --> 00:14:27.399
in the Middle East, if you look at the authorizations

00:14:27.399 --> 00:14:30.179
even for the H -200 chips, which the president

00:14:30.179 --> 00:14:33.000
said he would authorize, and then BIS explained,

00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:34.919
what is that going to look like? What are the

00:14:34.919 --> 00:14:38.230
license requirements going to be? Those specific

00:14:38.230 --> 00:14:41.669
expectations really walked and talked a lot like

00:14:41.669 --> 00:14:44.230
the expectations of the Biden -era AI diffusion

00:14:44.230 --> 00:14:46.950
rule. It just changed who was going to get to

00:14:46.950 --> 00:14:49.029
be in the top level, who was going to get to

00:14:49.029 --> 00:14:50.909
the front of the line. But the cybersecurity,

00:14:51.389 --> 00:14:54.950
physical security, KYC requirements were all

00:14:54.950 --> 00:14:57.549
there. Some of them even introduced remote access

00:14:57.549 --> 00:15:00.269
requirements, but frankly were inconsistent with

00:15:00.269 --> 00:15:03.090
how BIS has historically interpreted remote access.

00:15:03.789 --> 00:15:05.929
Now another bit of legislation that's still pending

00:15:05.929 --> 00:15:08.769
is the Remote Access Security Act, which wouldn't

00:15:08.769 --> 00:15:12.889
require BIS to impose KYC obligations on companies

00:15:12.889 --> 00:15:15.629
for remote access by customers to their data

00:15:15.629 --> 00:15:18.610
centers. But it would empower BIS to require

00:15:18.610 --> 00:15:20.549
a license for that. I was talking to one of my

00:15:20.549 --> 00:15:22.149
colleagues the other day, and he correctly pointed

00:15:22.149 --> 00:15:25.210
out if BIS hasn't wanted to find that authority

00:15:25.210 --> 00:15:27.970
for the last 15 years, why would they jump on

00:15:27.970 --> 00:15:30.830
the chance to implement rules under a clear grant

00:15:30.830 --> 00:15:32.990
of authority now? That's a fair question, but

00:15:32.990 --> 00:15:35.370
who knows? We're living in this world with a

00:15:35.370 --> 00:15:38.009
lot of things coexisting at the same time that

00:15:38.009 --> 00:15:39.889
you might not think would coexist. And one of

00:15:39.889 --> 00:15:43.409
them is this aggressive push to promote American

00:15:43.409 --> 00:15:47.909
AI exports. with this still hard -running vein

00:15:47.909 --> 00:15:52.690
of serious export controls over frontier AI capabilities.

00:15:53.129 --> 00:15:56.490
On Sunday, May 31st, in the morning, the Commerce

00:15:56.490 --> 00:15:59.350
Department issued, very unusually in terms of

00:15:59.350 --> 00:16:01.929
timing, guidance regarding enforcement of license

00:16:01.929 --> 00:16:04.429
requirements for advanced computing items for

00:16:04.429 --> 00:16:07.009
entities headquartered in country group D5M account.

00:16:07.500 --> 00:16:11.019
BIS stated they wanted to clarify that a license

00:16:11.019 --> 00:16:14.759
is required under that November 2023 rule. This

00:16:14.759 --> 00:16:17.399
rule was, quote, implemented via an end -user

00:16:17.399 --> 00:16:22.080
control in Part 744 .23A3 of the U .S. Export

00:16:22.080 --> 00:16:24.299
Controls and applied to all advanced computing

00:16:24.299 --> 00:16:27.759
items. In January of 2025, the AI diffusion rule

00:16:27.759 --> 00:16:31.799
transferred the requirement into Part 742 .6

00:16:31.799 --> 00:16:34.679
as part of the new worldwide rationing system.

00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:38.539
BIS points to its announcement in May 2025 that

00:16:38.539 --> 00:16:41.139
it would not be enforcing the AI Diffusion Rule's

00:16:41.139 --> 00:16:43.659
new compliance requirements. Then it said recently

00:16:43.659 --> 00:16:45.899
BIS has received questions as to whether the

00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:47.960
pre -existing license requirement established

00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:50.620
in November 2023 is still being enforced. The

00:16:50.620 --> 00:16:53.000
answer is yes. And that's literally what they

00:16:53.000 --> 00:16:55.460
said. It's like that short and sweet. The answer

00:16:55.460 --> 00:16:59.090
is yes. Getting right to the point. Specifically,

00:16:59.350 --> 00:17:01.950
a license requirement continues to apply to all

00:17:01.950 --> 00:17:04.049
destinations outside the United States for these

00:17:04.049 --> 00:17:06.210
advanced computing items when such items are

00:17:06.210 --> 00:17:08.390
for entities headquartered in or whose ultimate

00:17:08.390 --> 00:17:11.849
parent company is headquartered in Country Group

00:17:11.849 --> 00:17:14.809
D5 or Macau. Because this license requirement

00:17:14.809 --> 00:17:18.589
predates the AI diffusion rule, BIS's non -enforcement

00:17:18.589 --> 00:17:21.230
policy with respect to the destination -based

00:17:21.230 --> 00:17:23.009
license requirements for these advanced computing

00:17:23.009 --> 00:17:26.039
items applies only to the extent such items are

00:17:26.039 --> 00:17:28.220
not for entities headquartered in or they've

00:17:28.220 --> 00:17:30.259
ultimate care companies headquartered in country

00:17:30.259 --> 00:17:34.440
group d5 or macau so the guidance continues exporters

00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:36.839
should continue to seek bis licenses for such

00:17:36.839 --> 00:17:39.359
transactions unless a license exception is available

00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:42.440
now what's been really interesting brent is although

00:17:42.440 --> 00:17:44.140
they're stating the position that the license

00:17:44.140 --> 00:17:47.420
requirement always applied and was never under

00:17:47.420 --> 00:17:49.880
a non -enforcement policy and was never intended

00:17:49.880 --> 00:17:52.410
to be rescinded There's a bit of what you and

00:17:52.410 --> 00:17:55.289
I have called in the last couple weeks a general

00:17:55.289 --> 00:17:58.349
prohibition 10 savings clause essentially that

00:17:58.349 --> 00:18:00.569
follows in the penultimate paragraph of this

00:18:00.569 --> 00:18:03.779
guidance. Bonafide operators of data centers

00:18:03.779 --> 00:18:06.019
who are otherwise engaged in activities consistent

00:18:06.019 --> 00:18:08.900
with the EAR are not required to cease the ongoing

00:18:08.900 --> 00:18:12.400
use, storage, disposal, or servicing of advanced

00:18:12.400 --> 00:18:14.339
computing items because of this guidance until

00:18:14.339 --> 00:18:16.839
further notice from BIS. Then they have a helpful

00:18:16.839 --> 00:18:18.839
reminder at the end for information regarding

00:18:18.839 --> 00:18:20.799
the submission of voluntary self -disclosures,

00:18:20.859 --> 00:18:24.900
see 764 .5 of the EAR, and for guidance on the

00:18:24.900 --> 00:18:26.900
submission of license applications, just in case

00:18:26.900 --> 00:18:30.539
you now might need one, see Part 748. So that

00:18:30.539 --> 00:18:32.839
just shows enforcement's coming on this. Taking

00:18:32.839 --> 00:18:36.339
a step back, this reflects the changes in how

00:18:36.339 --> 00:18:39.539
BIS is operating, how the export controls world

00:18:39.539 --> 00:18:42.259
is changing, where you had this whole boatload

00:18:42.259 --> 00:18:44.279
of rules that would come out. You didn't see

00:18:44.279 --> 00:18:47.099
the enforcement activity. Now we flip that around

00:18:47.099 --> 00:18:50.259
where you see a dearth of rulemaking coming out,

00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:53.680
but you're seeing enforcement. of existing laws

00:18:53.680 --> 00:18:55.140
on the books. And I think that's what's really

00:18:55.140 --> 00:18:58.380
more important. If BIS had to get this guidance

00:18:58.380 --> 00:19:01.319
out on a Sunday, that means something somewhere

00:19:01.319 --> 00:19:05.140
is a snafu. And so they needed to jump on it.

00:19:05.240 --> 00:19:06.980
I would expect you're going to see enforcement

00:19:06.980 --> 00:19:09.220
activity coming out of this. If people thought

00:19:09.220 --> 00:19:13.000
that November 2023 rule got canceled, no way.

00:19:13.200 --> 00:19:14.819
The other thing that we don't know is whether

00:19:14.819 --> 00:19:17.119
there was some shipment coming out. the next

00:19:17.119 --> 00:19:21.240
day that maybe somebody needed commercially under

00:19:21.240 --> 00:19:23.980
a contract a clear statement from them and it

00:19:23.980 --> 00:19:26.059
was important enough that they offered to provide

00:19:26.059 --> 00:19:28.500
it. It would seem to be a big ask and a big give

00:19:28.500 --> 00:19:31.539
given the public scrutiny of it and the fact

00:19:31.539 --> 00:19:34.079
that if you look at law firm guidance around

00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:37.480
the time that the May 2025 announcements were

00:19:37.480 --> 00:19:39.920
made, people were saying, be careful, the November

00:19:39.920 --> 00:19:42.720
2023 advanced computing item controls haven't

00:19:42.720 --> 00:19:45.269
changed. That's another point to make too. Stop

00:19:45.269 --> 00:19:46.869
calling this a loophole. It's not a loophole.

00:19:47.289 --> 00:19:49.690
There never was a loophole. Even for the people

00:19:49.690 --> 00:19:52.609
that are advocating stronger export controls,

00:19:52.789 --> 00:19:54.250
they're calling it a loophole. It's not a loophole.

00:19:54.430 --> 00:19:56.750
It certainly shows enforcement's coming. It's

00:19:56.750 --> 00:19:58.509
not some announcement of some sort of amnesty

00:19:58.509 --> 00:20:00.769
program, and people should be clear about that.

00:20:01.150 --> 00:20:04.009
It is telling you that if you are an operator

00:20:04.009 --> 00:20:07.890
and you're sitting in a data center and chips

00:20:07.890 --> 00:20:11.230
that should have been licensed between May 13,

00:20:11.609 --> 00:20:15.549
2025 and May 31, 2026 are being used, stored,

00:20:15.710 --> 00:20:18.170
disposed of, or serviced, it looks like they're

00:20:18.170 --> 00:20:20.250
telling you that you don't have to stop those

00:20:20.250 --> 00:20:23.519
activities, but you may... receive further notice

00:20:23.519 --> 00:20:25.819
from them if you were sitting there today trying

00:20:25.819 --> 00:20:28.519
to rely on that paragraph to just continue business

00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:31.059
as usual until you're expressly told otherwise

00:20:31.059 --> 00:20:34.319
there's a lot of language in just that paragraph

00:20:34.319 --> 00:20:37.380
that is let's say open to interpretation and

00:20:37.380 --> 00:20:39.740
the government is very likely to interpret that

00:20:39.740 --> 00:20:42.859
language differently than my industry for example

00:20:42.859 --> 00:20:46.309
who is a bona fide operator Well, at one end

00:20:46.309 --> 00:20:48.950
of the spectrum, surely a fake data center like

00:20:48.950 --> 00:20:51.190
some that have been named in recent indictments

00:20:51.190 --> 00:20:53.630
and sealed against individuals would not be bona

00:20:53.630 --> 00:20:56.170
fide, I think, in anyone's eyes. But is a bona

00:20:56.170 --> 00:20:58.730
fide operator a subsidiary of a Chinese company?

00:20:58.869 --> 00:21:01.809
Is a bona fide operator somebody who was set

00:21:01.809 --> 00:21:05.589
up specifically to sidestep the direct export

00:21:05.589 --> 00:21:08.609
controls imposed in October of 2022 and October

00:21:08.609 --> 00:21:12.529
of 2023? Bias might well say no. So there's some

00:21:12.529 --> 00:21:15.869
ambiguity there. Just moving a few words down

00:21:15.869 --> 00:21:19.069
in that savings clause, otherwise engaged in

00:21:19.069 --> 00:21:22.589
activities consistent. They may give you a pass

00:21:22.589 --> 00:21:26.430
for during that year violating the specific November

00:21:26.430 --> 00:21:29.769
2023 controls. But as you and I have pointed

00:21:29.769 --> 00:21:31.829
out, Brent, in the context of the affiliates

00:21:31.829 --> 00:21:34.490
rule and other specific focused regulations.

00:21:35.390 --> 00:21:37.630
None of these things have changed the broader

00:21:37.630 --> 00:21:40.289
anti -evasion, anti -diversion framework that

00:21:40.289 --> 00:21:42.710
has existed for years. General Prohibition 10,

00:21:42.869 --> 00:21:45.549
for example, but also the catch -all provisions,

00:21:45.750 --> 00:21:48.529
including as to supercomputers. In particular,

00:21:48.609 --> 00:21:50.869
that would apply likely to many data centers.

00:21:51.069 --> 00:21:52.750
You need to be able to show you're otherwise

00:21:52.750 --> 00:21:55.700
compliant with that. and to the extent the november

00:21:55.700 --> 00:21:59.319
2023 rule is viewed by bas as really trying to

00:21:59.319 --> 00:22:02.259
expressly close a loophole you know there's some

00:22:02.259 --> 00:22:04.660
interpretation that bs might take of those words

00:22:04.660 --> 00:22:06.740
that again would be different than industry might

00:22:06.740 --> 00:22:09.799
then you're not required to cease certain activities

00:22:09.799 --> 00:22:11.559
but when you're talking about ceasing ongoing

00:22:11.559 --> 00:22:14.440
activities i think as any business would then

00:22:14.440 --> 00:22:17.039
immediately ask, well, what does that mean? Does

00:22:17.039 --> 00:22:19.960
that mean that if I have a master services agreement

00:22:19.960 --> 00:22:22.319
or a framework agreement under which I'm doing

00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:24.539
all these different things, can I continue to

00:22:24.539 --> 00:22:27.400
take on new projects under this overall framework

00:22:27.400 --> 00:22:30.220
agreement? Can I sign a whole new framework agreement

00:22:30.220 --> 00:22:33.369
with the same customer? You can very well see,

00:22:33.410 --> 00:22:35.890
Brent, a lot of companies, again, using the language

00:22:35.890 --> 00:22:38.470
of this penultimate savings clause, having a

00:22:38.470 --> 00:22:40.849
lot of operational questions about what does

00:22:40.849 --> 00:22:43.769
this mean in terms of contracts, purchase orders,

00:22:44.089 --> 00:22:47.009
invoicing, exports. That's where BIS is hoping

00:22:47.009 --> 00:22:48.890
you'll come to them and talk to them. I think

00:22:48.890 --> 00:22:51.630
it would be very risky for anyone just to...

00:22:52.009 --> 00:22:55.210
haphazardly continue business as normal if you're

00:22:55.210 --> 00:22:57.990
in a data center if the november 2023 rules apply

00:22:57.990 --> 00:23:00.849
to you it'll be very risky to continue business

00:23:00.849 --> 00:23:03.910
as usual yeah actually looking at this that paragraph

00:23:03.910 --> 00:23:07.349
right before the very end that is an invitation

00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:12.029
for anyone who may have made a mistake and not

00:23:12.029 --> 00:23:15.690
fully realized that that november 2023 advanced

00:23:15.690 --> 00:23:18.029
computing rule was still in effect throughout

00:23:18.029 --> 00:23:21.829
all this to come to BIS first before BIS comes

00:23:21.829 --> 00:23:23.950
to them. What's important to also understand

00:23:23.950 --> 00:23:27.609
here is that what this means is that as of June

00:23:27.609 --> 00:23:31.789
1st, there's no more excuses. BIS might have

00:23:31.789 --> 00:23:33.890
issued this because they saw some litigation

00:23:33.890 --> 00:23:37.349
risk to themselves if they tried to go before

00:23:37.349 --> 00:23:39.730
an administrative law judge or someone challenged

00:23:39.730 --> 00:23:41.829
their interpretation before a district court

00:23:41.829 --> 00:23:46.000
for that period from May 13th to May 31st. But

00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:48.259
because this guidance was issued on Sunday, May

00:23:48.259 --> 00:23:51.460
31st, as of June 1st, that rule, to the extent

00:23:51.460 --> 00:23:54.019
it was ever gone, and BS is saying it was not,

00:23:54.220 --> 00:23:57.539
snaps back. Immediate impact, immediate effect.

00:23:58.079 --> 00:24:00.720
So Brent, there were some other important developments.

00:24:00.779 --> 00:24:04.440
On Friday, June 12th, in the evening, it was

00:24:04.440 --> 00:24:06.519
publicly reported that... Commerce Secretary

00:24:06.519 --> 00:24:09.039
Howard Lutnick issued an misinformed letter to

00:24:09.039 --> 00:24:12.019
one of the big AI model developers, essentially

00:24:12.019 --> 00:24:14.700
shutting down some of their latest models. Why

00:24:14.700 --> 00:24:16.519
don't you walk us through what happened and what

00:24:16.519 --> 00:24:19.339
are we thinking about what this means for, frankly,

00:24:19.440 --> 00:24:21.750
even other companies? Yeah, so this is another

00:24:21.750 --> 00:24:24.950
big shock, but it's a big change in the world

00:24:24.950 --> 00:24:27.430
of export control. So on Friday, June 12th, Commerce

00:24:27.430 --> 00:24:30.230
Secretary Lutnick issued his informed letter

00:24:30.230 --> 00:24:32.970
to this large AI model company that informed

00:24:32.970 --> 00:24:35.109
them that an export license is required for the

00:24:35.109 --> 00:24:38.250
export, re -export, transfer in -country, including

00:24:38.250 --> 00:24:41.869
deemed exports and deemed re -exports of their

00:24:41.869 --> 00:24:44.970
latest models to all destinations worldwide and

00:24:44.970 --> 00:24:47.789
to all foreign persons, as defined in the EAR.

00:24:48.069 --> 00:24:50.420
The company then took the immediate step. where

00:24:50.420 --> 00:24:52.880
they took down access to those models. There's

00:24:52.880 --> 00:24:55.420
been a lot of discussion on this in terms of

00:24:55.420 --> 00:24:59.700
how BIS is approaching some of these export controls

00:24:59.700 --> 00:25:03.480
toward implications for cloud computing, software

00:25:03.480 --> 00:25:06.259
access, and the Deem exports. But one thing I

00:25:06.259 --> 00:25:09.940
think that was interesting is that the reason

00:25:09.940 --> 00:25:11.880
given in the letter... It was, quote unquote,

00:25:12.180 --> 00:25:15.420
there is an unacceptable risk of use in or diversion

00:25:15.420 --> 00:25:18.420
to a military intelligence end use or military

00:25:18.420 --> 00:25:20.880
intelligence end user. And really what this comes

00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:24.839
down to, these AI systems are not at the future

00:25:24.839 --> 00:25:27.420
of modern warfare. They're the here and now.

00:25:27.880 --> 00:25:30.819
The key takeaways are that these geopolitical

00:25:30.819 --> 00:25:33.220
drivers, which drive national security, which

00:25:33.220 --> 00:25:34.940
drive new laws, regulations, and enforcement

00:25:34.940 --> 00:25:38.440
priorities, then really have to then push companies

00:25:38.440 --> 00:25:41.980
to maintain effective compliance programs that

00:25:41.980 --> 00:25:44.779
are flexible and forward -looking for these things.

00:25:44.839 --> 00:25:47.670
Because we're now in a situation where... these

00:25:47.670 --> 00:25:50.849
items, these advanced computing items that revolve

00:25:50.849 --> 00:25:53.890
around the rapidly advancing AI capabilities

00:25:53.890 --> 00:25:56.390
cuts right to the core of national security,

00:25:56.670 --> 00:25:57.890
not just for the United States, but everybody

00:25:57.890 --> 00:26:00.450
else out there. Your government can come in and

00:26:00.450 --> 00:26:02.849
just basically shut this down, shut down an entire

00:26:02.849 --> 00:26:05.170
business. It could be even existential for your

00:26:05.170 --> 00:26:07.450
company if you're not fully thinking through

00:26:07.450 --> 00:26:10.569
and thinking ahead on where the trends are going

00:26:10.569 --> 00:26:12.849
here. Literally, things can happen overnight

00:26:12.849 --> 00:26:15.470
and it can cut right to the company's business,

00:26:15.529 --> 00:26:17.660
the bottom line, and even... in the very existence

00:26:17.660 --> 00:26:21.640
of it. So Brent, that brings us to this episode's

00:26:21.640 --> 00:26:24.619
managing up. What is your managing up for today?

00:26:24.920 --> 00:26:26.779
Yeah, Mike, the managing up this time around

00:26:26.779 --> 00:26:30.319
is let's not ignore the gray rhinos. They are

00:26:30.319 --> 00:26:33.660
there right on the road. Let's take actions to

00:26:33.660 --> 00:26:36.500
avoid collision and protect ourselves, protect

00:26:36.500 --> 00:26:39.059
the company's officers and directors, and ultimately

00:26:39.059 --> 00:26:41.640
protect shareholder value. Well said, Brent.

00:26:41.779 --> 00:26:45.019
So not everyone listening to us might catch the

00:26:45.019 --> 00:26:47.960
gray rhino reference. It's one you've made in

00:26:47.960 --> 00:26:50.720
an earlier episode as well. This is a callback

00:26:50.720 --> 00:26:54.039
to the book The Gray Rhino, How to Recognize

00:26:54.039 --> 00:26:57.500
and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, a seminal

00:26:57.500 --> 00:27:00.119
business and crisis management book that explores

00:27:00.119 --> 00:27:03.079
why leaders and organizations frequently ignore

00:27:03.079 --> 00:27:05.720
massive, highly predictable, and high -impact

00:27:05.720 --> 00:27:09.960
threats by Michelle Wucker. We'll include, of

00:27:09.960 --> 00:27:11.799
course, a link to Michelle's book in the notes.

00:27:12.079 --> 00:27:14.720
That's correct. Another big fan of the book reportedly

00:27:14.720 --> 00:27:17.089
is Chinese leader Xi Jinping. So he's working

00:27:17.089 --> 00:27:19.089
on his gray rhinos too. We all have those gray

00:27:19.089 --> 00:27:21.230
rhinos. Let's not let them hit us. Let's not

00:27:21.230 --> 00:27:23.230
hit them. Well, Brent, well said. As always,

00:27:23.289 --> 00:27:26.789
that concludes this episode of Red Flags Rising.

00:27:27.049 --> 00:27:29.390
Thank you to everyone for listening and for all

00:27:29.390 --> 00:27:32.690
of you dealing with this whipsaw of regulatory

00:27:32.690 --> 00:27:35.710
change and guidance, providing guidance about

00:27:35.710 --> 00:27:38.789
prior guidance. Hang in there. You're not alone.

00:27:39.109 --> 00:27:40.809
There are a community of people dealing with

00:27:40.809 --> 00:27:43.539
all of the same problems. Feel free to reach

00:27:43.539 --> 00:27:45.660
out anytime if anyone wants to compare notes

00:27:45.660 --> 00:27:48.359
or just have either what used to be called a

00:27:48.359 --> 00:27:50.859
sanity check maybe five years ago and now is

00:27:50.859 --> 00:27:53.559
more of an insanity check. The whole point of

00:27:53.559 --> 00:27:56.740
this podcast has been to try to offer trade compliance

00:27:56.740 --> 00:27:58.779
professionals, whether you're in -house, whether

00:27:58.779 --> 00:28:02.680
you're an external advisor, some principled basis

00:28:02.680 --> 00:28:06.119
for restoring some sort of order and semblance

00:28:06.119 --> 00:28:09.059
of normalcy to your lives. We're all running

00:28:09.059 --> 00:28:10.920
around with their hair caught on fire. Every

00:28:10.920 --> 00:28:13.599
time there's an unexpected announcement, yes,

00:28:13.680 --> 00:28:15.180
there are going to be emergencies. There are

00:28:15.180 --> 00:28:17.779
going to be global events, world events that

00:28:17.779 --> 00:28:21.799
happen unexpectedly that do cause genuine emergencies.

00:28:22.240 --> 00:28:25.759
But there's also other ways to manage day -to

00:28:25.759 --> 00:28:28.339
-day life, to focus your efforts on your greatest

00:28:28.339 --> 00:28:31.500
risks, and then have a way to defend those decisions

00:28:31.500 --> 00:28:34.200
later. That's really the fundamental purpose

00:28:34.200 --> 00:28:36.140
of everything we've been doing with this podcast.

00:28:36.809 --> 00:28:38.829
We hope it's been helpful. We're always open

00:28:38.829 --> 00:28:41.390
to ideas and feedback. Feel free to provide them.

00:28:41.630 --> 00:28:44.490
You can contact us at our email addresses and

00:28:44.490 --> 00:28:47.450
websites in the show notes. Thanks, Mike. And

00:28:47.450 --> 00:28:48.750
everyone else out there, take care.
