Tare Tuesday.
So you know, sometimes people learn something that makes them feel super smart.
And then so they decide to go ahead and apply it every chance they get, even when they don't
fully understand what the hell it is that they're really talking about.
Okay?
For me, from teaching, one of the things that comes in, especially in my critical thinking
classes, is this distinction between correlation and causation.
Okay?
So let's first get the basics out of the way.
Okay?
Correlation does not equal causation.
Okay?
You've probably heard this before.
I hear it from students all the time.
You're absolutely correct.
Correlation does not equal causation.
What does that mean?
Does that mean that just simply means that just because two events are correlated, right?
So if one happens, the other doesn't happen or every time one thing happens, something
else happens.
Okay?
That correlation does not guarantee that there's some sort of causal relationship, like one
is causing the other.
It could just be that there's coincidence for one, but if it happens repeatedly, more
likely than not, there might be some third variable.
There's something else that is maybe either causing both things to happen or things that
are distantly related somehow, but not causally related.
Right?
It just happens that every time one thing happens, it's also other factors that suggest
that something else might also happen, but they're not causally connected at all.
Okay?
All right.
So I'm not going to disagree with any of that.
That is all correct.
Okay?
What pisses me off though is when people say correlation is not causation as a way to dismiss
the weight that correlation has in drawing conclusions about causation.
What do I mean by this?
Okay?
Because correlation does not equal causation does not mean that correlation is not some
sort of indicator that it is plausible that there is some causation going on.
Okay?
Does that make sense?
Let me break it down for you.
Okay?
All right.
So here's a correlation.
Okay?
Here's a correlation for you.
Okay?
Every time there's somebody sets a fire to a house, okay, suppose that the news, the
public news is out there with their cameras and everything and their video taping, it's
like, ah, another like some fire struck this neighborhood again.
Okay?
And then every time that fire, there's a new fire in the neighborhood, in the city.
Okay?
In that video shot from the news, you see me in the audience and it's only me that seems
to show up in the audience at every single one of these fires.
Okay?
One fire, two fires.
Maybe you think it's a coincidence.
Three fires, four fires, five fires.
Right?
Okay.
Now we're getting a correlation here.
Okay?
I'm at all of these events.
All right?
Now, okay, does that mean I caused the fire?
Not necessarily.
Right?
It could be that I am just some dude that has a sick obsession with houses on fires.
And so anytime there's a fire, all right, maybe I just have my ears to the ground and
I'm just like, I just know where the fires are happening.
And I just zoom right there as quickly as I can.
I just happen to be in the shot when the newscasters are panning the area.
Okay?
So it could be that it's a correlation.
Again, it's not causation necessarily.
Right?
Because I just happen to really like fires and then whenever there's fires, I just happen
to be there.
Okay?
I guess you could kind of call it like a causation, right?
The fires caused me to be there, but that's a weird way of thinking about it.
Right?
I think of it more like a correlation.
Okay?
But here's the thing.
Here's the thing.
If you're a detective and you noticed a pattern and you see that I am the only person that
is at every single one of these events, right?
Every single one of these events where somebody deliberately set a fire to a house.
Okay?
Somebody.
Okay?
Wouldn't you want to bring me in for questioning?
I'm not saying there's a guarantee that I'm the one who caused those fires, but it seems
like good detective duty to at least bring me in for questioning.
I'm not saying that you should arrest me and then you should put me in jail.
Okay?
I would argue in court.
I'd be like, correlation is not causation.
Correlation is not causation.
Okay?
But here's the thing.
Okay?
Correlation is one of the ways that we try to detect causation.
It is not the only thing that we use.
Okay?
When more and more correlations start to stack up, then you start becoming more and more
suspicious that there's some sort of causal link between them.
That is not a mere accident.
That is not a third variable.
You could try to eliminate all the other variables.
And if that correlation is still there, that's one of the ways we figure out whether or not
there could be a causal factor here.
Okay?
There's a causal relationship.
Okay?
So all I'm saying is this.
Okay?
You can acknowledge if somebody is making the error, and it is an error, to just simply
go from correlation and then shift directly to causation.
Okay?
That is a mistake.
But you should not shit on people for thinking correlation is not causation.
But correlation does often raise a lot of flags.
It at least gives us some stuff to look into.
Okay?
It's going to give that detective goddamn good reason to go ahead and question me for
all the arsons happening in the neighborhood.
Okay?
The police better question me because if they don't, they're not doing their job.
Okay?
If they see that I'm there at all those sites of the fires, right?
They should bring me in and be like, hey, we noticed that you are the only one that
happens to be at every single one of these fires.
Right?
Why is that?
Oh.
Strange.
Okay?
You should at least try to get to the bottom of it.
Okay?
Now, at the end of the day, again, it might just be something else.
It might be just a really bad coincidence.
I might have terrible luck, but if you're not being suspicious, something wrong with
you.
Okay?
You're not reasoning well.
Okay?
So again, all right?
Correlation does not equal causation, but a lot of correlation does raise a lot of suspicions
about the potential for causation.
That is not irrational.
That's good reasoning.
All right?
That's not the end of the story.
There's still more investigating to do, but don't blame somebody for suspecting the possibility
of causation when they see a whole lot of correlation.
Okay?
So, don't think you're a little bit, little smarty pants by learning this distinction.
Correlation does not equal causation.
And then just leave it at that and then think, oh yeah, and therefore correlation has nothing
to do with causation.
That's ridiculous.
Okay?
Correlation is one of the main ways we try to identify causation.
This is a technique used in a majority of the social sciences.
Okay?
It's at least a starting point in a lot of cases in the medical sciences, and sometimes
that's all they have to go on.
Okay?
So, it is a technique used across the board and has helped us make a lot of advances.
So don't shit on correlation.
Okay?
Correlation helps.
Got it?
People being a smart ass.
You can be a smart ass.