This is a production of Channel 11 and Channel
22. And if you have more than $200 of oil, continue
this game. There is a scheme to prevent... There
is still a part of the gasoline that is imported
and, in addition, the prices of oil are fixed
internationally. So, if the price of gasoline
increases, the production of gasoline or the
importation, there is a mechanism through the
reduction of the IEPS so that gasoline does not
increase in our country. That was left by President
López Obrador in 2022 when prices increased due
to the war in Ukraine. So, if necessary, we will
occupy this mechanism. Hola, ¿qué tal? Muy buenas
noches. Gracias por estar con nosotros. Es más
de usar. Esta es una coproducción de Canal 11
y Canal 22. Es temática según el día de la semana
y este martes es turno de Economía y Política.
Y vaya coyuntura. Soy Claudia Villegas, maestra
en periodismo y especialista en indicadores macroeconómicos.
Y antes de comenzar, le doy la más cordial bienvenida
a mis compañeros, Oscar Rojas, economista. Hola,
¿qué tal? Muy buenas noches, doctor. Hamlet Almaguer,
Master in Constitutional Processing Law. Good
evening. Good evening, of course, Paul Hospital,
Master in Government and Public Policy. Hello
everyone, thank you. Hello, and of course, Tonatiuh
Martínez, economist. Good evening, Tonatiuh.
Good evening, Claudia. Good evening to everyone.
Today we will talk about the international cost
of the oil barrel. We will talk about the implications
of this war that the United States, together
with Israel, started against Iran. Do you remember
February 28? It's March 10th, the epic fury that
is already named in the international press as
the Epstein fury operation. Because it is said
in the American press, in the European press,
that it seems like a whole strategy that is costing
the world very much to try to hide the scandal
of the Epstein files. El editorial del Economista,
The Economist, esta revista británica, dice Trump
debe parar ya. Casualmente el presidente de Estados
Unidos dice que la guerra terminó y que no pueden
más, pero el Pentágono, las fuerzas militares
de Estados Unidos, dicen que hoy se tuvo una
de las embestidas más fuertes, mientras la Guardia
Revolucionaria iraní advierte que los precios
del petróleo, si ustedes pueden aguantar, le
dice a Trump. a price of $200 per barrel. Well,
the conflict can be expanded. Tonatiuh, what
do you think about these declarations? The markets
accused of receiving goes from $120 to $90. The
markets go up again, but there is a lot of fear
around inflation, as we advanced, by the way,
last week. Yes, Brent exceeded 115. It was a
black Monday, let's say, in terms of international
financial markets. There were different falls,
especially the main Asian partners. from the
West, I mean Japan and South Korea, the stockpiles
of these countries in particular fell on Monday
in a very strong way. China, with a minor impact,
precisely because it is understood that Iran
uses, let's say, the Ormuz Strait as a strategy,
a tool also in this war of different edges, and
allows some ships to pass. to China to supply
the country. Let's remember that one in five
barrels of oil exported from this area reaches
Asia. That is the advantage. There is also a
new attention to the appointment of the successor.
of Ali Khamenei, his son, Mustafa Khamenei. And
it seems that President Trump also disqualifies
him from the beginning. Once he takes command,
let's say, as the supreme leader of Iran, he
also attacks. Israel and to different oil bases
throughout the Gulf. So the war has been going
on for 10 days. That's something important. Last
week we said that the short term involved between
four and five weeks. After Black Monday, I would
say that the situation has relaxed today. There
is already a rise in the stock markets. That
must also be said. And above all, a decrease
in oil prices. That I think has two... Well,
first to say that the ministers of finance of
the G7 were going to meet. to agree on the release
of an impressive amount of oil barrels and, let's
say, flood the market and decrease the price.
But above all, what benefited from the decrease
in oil prices was the agreement between Russia
and the United States. Putin and Trump spoke
and reached an agreement where these... these
instruments that the United States used at the
time to inhibit the trade of Russia, well, it
was, let's say, removing it by blocks. Not completely,
this prohibition of commercialization is not
removed, but yes by blocks. And it is said that
in the short term there will already be... completely,
let's say, free trade of Russian oil to the world.
And that is very beneficial, let's say, for prices.
I don't know if for the relationship China -Russia
is beneficial, but it is something that we are
observing. Definitely, I think there is a starting
point necessary to announce that... Of course,
when it comes to the level of the war, let's
say that it crosses a very, very risky limit,
not only because of the nuclear escalation, but
also because of the escalation of prices that
can arise through this increase. But also to
announce this that we are analyzing here, which
has to do with the fact that between all this
stridency there are, in any case, calls. uh su
posición en el mundo si es que quiere realmente
llegar a esta condición del Make America Great
Again. Y que hoy se anunció, además, anunció
con bombo y platillo, por primera vez, después
de 50 años, una nueva refinería que se va a empezar
a construir. Ya van tarde, porque esto era un
proceso de reindustrialización que Estados Unidos
habría tenido que haber estado impulsando desde
hace tiempo. México compró DIRPAC. Exacto. Hasta
México ya tiene ahí una posición. in Deer Park
and well now what is clear once again is that
the countries to reach the new order that is
being established because they have to come with
this sign of energy sovereignty, that is, sovereignty
that also allows them with all these new conditions
establish, once again, certain capacities that
the United States has lost. Let's remember that
the American market has been losing participation
in global production in its percentage, while
the Asian one is rising. So, we have to take
seriously the need for that re -balance. I would
like to emphasize energy sovereignty, because
in an environment as complicated as the one we
are living in, Well, we see what the achievements
of President López Obrador and President Seymour
are through the mechanisms that he commented
on today at the morning conference. This margin
that the IEPS has so that the prices of fuels
in the country do not rise sharply despite this
jump that we are seeing at the international
level and that the graph that you put speaks
for itself. And in the case of energy sovereignty,
the reforms that were established in the constitutional
framework and in the legal framework, the reintegration
of Pemex, the reintegration of the Federal Electricity
Commission, the investments that were made in
the refineries, that just like Trump is making
the announcement that for the first time in 50
years they are building something, neoliberalism
here in Mexico also. destroyed the capacity of
production, destroyed the capacity of refining.
And today, with the policy that President Sheinbaum
has undertaken, this power is being recovered.
So Mexico produces 1 ,600 ,000 barrels a day,
of which we have a refining capacity of 1 ,200
,000. So it is a very relevant percentage that
allows the domestic market... can be under control,
that there are no risks for companies, both in
the industrial sector, in private, let's say,
as well as for the public sector. And I think
they show once again that they were right in
this policy. The example you just talked about,
Deer Park, is also relevant. It's a pity that
Mexico has lost... 30 years, three decades. If
not, we would be in other conditions, in a possibility
even to take advantage of any conjuncture to
satisfy international markets. But we must remain
calm, that at least the internal market is safe.
Although we continue to import more than we export,
but well, we are advancing. Let's see, and why
is this topic relevant? And I was wondering if
we could analyze here the fluctuation of the
prices of the barrel of oil at a global level.
And then, reviewing the recent history, it turns
out that what happened is complete and absolutely
abnormal. That is, if it is a global matter of
concern in which we are involved, because sometimes
it seems from Mexico. Well, everything that happens
there in the Middle East and in Iran and Israel
is very distant. And all the oil production and
the Strait of Hormuz. And there we have a map
that I sent to production to exemplify in a very
clear way what is the size of the problem that
we have. There is what Tonatiuh said, that practically
a fifth of the... Petroleum barrels that move
around the world go through there. And there
we can see very clearly the impact it has geopolitically,
the impact it has all over the world. And then
I checked that the oil barrel reached $120, which
was a growth of about 30%. Y bueno, uno está
acostumbrado a que los precios suban, bajen,
pero siempre dentro de un tabulador, de una normalidad.
Y esto completamente anormal, que también se
dio, por ejemplo, con la plata a principios de
año, que lo platicamos acá en este espacio, en
donde también tuvo una escalada inmensa después
de un anuncio que hizo Estados Unidos de la reserva
de los minerales críticos. Y entonces, en la
conclusión que vemos, es como un presidente como
Trump, el peligro que es tener un presidente
como Trump en Estados Unidos. that through declarations,
decrees, or affirmations, or military interventions,
the economy of other nations, of other countries,
can be complicated in a matter as relevant as
hydrocarbons, as oil is. But we start from the
principle of a man who is a professional liar.
Hay distintos estudios, estaba revisando el último,
de cuántas mentiras en promedio o afirmaciones
falsas o engañosas dice Trump diario. Y ha evolucionado
ahora en estos 13 meses, empezó en 21 afirmaciones
falsas o mentiras diarias y va ya en 39. No tiene
el récord Guinness, el récord lo tiene el observador
que... Well, he spoke every morning, but he got
to 103 lies on average. Well, there's a study
that says it. I couldn't miss the opportunity
to hit him. No, well, I'm just saying that he
doesn't have the Trump Award. But let's start
from the beginning, that he's a president who,
for example, now in the last statement he gave,
in the same sentence, he said two opposite things.
In the same sentence he said... And... Well,
all the actions he takes lead us to huge economic
problems, including in our country, which can
raise the price of gasoline, which is good that
it can be contained with the IEPS, but in the
end it is a subsidy of the Mexican state that
we should be applying for other things. So, the
danger of Trump. Yes, the danger of Trump and
the danger of a model. that for many decades,
basically, the PRI and PAN governments of the
last 20 years have privileged the substitution
of the internal capacity of gasoline production
for importation. I remember that I once had the
opportunity to interview one of the characters
who, at Pemex, managed PMI International, and
he said, which, by the way, has been disabled
for several decades. And he said, it's good news
that we import a lot of gasoline because we are
growing. So this so biased management of global
geopolitics not only caused Mexico to have a
wrong model for many decades, where energy sovereignty
was not privileged. There's a very famous editorial
by Naum Chomsky that talks about, it's the oil,
and you know, after the suspenseful points, what's
going on, right? It's the oil. Amigos. Amigos.
And in this editorial, he talks about how the
US interventions in the Middle East, in the Middle
East, but also in Venezuela, but also in some
countries of our continent that have oil reserves,
have been driven by that need to have more reserves.
And this is no coincidence when we see What Paul
said, for the first time, I agree with him. No,
it's not the first time, there are several. There
are several, we agree. In the sense that lies
are told, but they are not casual lies. Lies
are told to feed certain operations. Let's see
the future of oil. Who won? like when Mexico
was betting on the structural weakness of public
finances and we had gold betting against weight.
So who won in these days of high oil price instability
when it goes from $90 to $120? There was a very
strong profit. And we were also talking behind
the scenes about why. To the United States, an
oil price of $80 or $90 would be appropriate,
because the levels of $50 and $60, the fracking
issue is no longer profitable for the United
States, and the United States needs high prices
to continue producing oil and remain as a net
exporter and not as an importer. Nothing is random
in this ecosystem and this geopolitics. And I
would end by talking a little about how the American
press is already destroying Trump, and that weighs
a lot towards the intermediaries. For example,
they criticize him for betting, not for weeks,
but for four or five days. Then, how to bet that
he was going to end up with a regime that already
has a triumvirate. He is the son of the leader
who was killed, but he is also the son of the
son. So he bet that there would be no demonstrations
in the streets. With all this information, we
want him to stay with us because we continue
to analyze Donald Trump's Operation Fury. Estás
escuchando un podcast de Canal 11 y Canal 22.
Thank you for continuing in the public media
analysis bar, economy and politics, and we continue
talking about the international cost of the oil
barrel, but also about how only a third of the
Americans support Donald Trump's decision to
start the war. against Iran. Historically, American
presidents, when they declare these war events,
increase popularity. Trump is going through exactly
the opposite. Exactly. The instruments that are
usually used are already working against. This
perspective tells us to insist on the internal
crisis that the United States has. And now already
a much deeper external crisis, because also what
is being demonstrated is once again the Vietnam
effect. is to say, this moment in which the great
power cannot, let's say, win a war in the sense
of controlling all the decisions derived. Iran
is offering a very important resistance and,
in addition, this is moving what is the major
conflict, which is the conflict between blocks,
between the BRICS and the G7, and I would resume
the issue that must be kept in mind of the financialization,
that is to say, the United States, of course,
that also plays not only at the present price,
of oil, but also at its future price. That is,
in fact, one of the economic problems of the
American economy in the sense that they are dedicating,
that is, they are seeing the development process
as a purely financial matter and not the real
strengthening of the industrial base, which is
what has demonstrated the strength in the other
blocs. And here to highlight, of course, that
in all this environment, it is critical, of course,
but it announces once again the hegemonic crisis
that is living. United States. Of course, this
generates an additional pressure in the region,
but well, for this case in particular, well,
Mexico, as it was pointed out, has its defenses
through the IEPS, through the fact that it has
already advanced in the recovery of refining
of our oil, but above all that we are receiving
this storm also with a macroeconomic stability
that allows this process of the IEPS and that,
well, it is also in a once and for all, because
I think this reaffirms the importance that we
continue to advance in the country's industrial
policy. It seems to me that your comments, Claudia,
Oscar, fit perfectly with this interview that
CNN made to a spokesman for the government of
Iran and speaks precisely of the impact that
can be in the United States and in the whole
world. We are going to ask production to run
it, please. The Iranian army is strong, as you
can see, because it has the motivation, it has
the weapons it needs, which are produced in Iran.
In fact, we do not depend on any other country
for weapons and armament. So your side is ready
for a long war if the United States and Israel
decide that. Do you consider this an existential
threat to the Islamic Republic? It is an existential
threat to the Islamic Republic, and therefore
we must resist with all our strength, as we are
doing now. Is your side seeking or will seek
a ceasefire with the United States and Israel
at this time? I don't see any room for diplomacy,
because Donald Trump has been deceiving others
and not fulfilling his promises. We experienced
this in two times of negotiations in which, while
we were engaged in the negotiations, they attacked
us. How does all this end then? If you say that
right now there is no room for negotiation and
President Trump says he wants complete surrender,
what does that lead to? There is no room unless
the economic pressure increases to the point
that other countries would intervene. Well, there
it is with all its letters, the strategy of Iran
in this asymmetric war. If they are suffering
these attacks, they are willing to take the entire
planet to an economic crisis and let it be the
other countries who pressure the United States
to stop these attacks. And if there is no space
for diplomacy at this moment, we are ready for
a long -term war. And I consider that here, Clausewitz
was right, war is a continuation of politics.
Very delicate. The truth is that you also won
me the intervention because I was just going
to tell you, with all this that is happening,
the classic, where are we going to stop? Because
I see the declarations, the words weigh a lot,
and much more in this situation in which Iran
is, in which the United States is, where declarations
are made from one side to the other, que yo veo
una escalada de violencia, que bueno, lo resumes
muy bien en esta entrevista, qué bueno que la
pusiste, pero donde veo un Irán que, por ejemplo,
propone, ¿quieren cruzar por el estrecho de Hormuz?
Perfecto. Corran a los embajadores de Estados
Unidos de sus países, y el que lo corra, le doy
chance de que pase por el estrecho. Es gravísimo,
¿no? Obviamente, pero bueno, es una provocación.
También las fuerzas militares dicen, Por ahí
hubo una declaración no oficial que le van a
disparar a los buques, a los barcos que pasen
por el Estrecho de Hormuz que no tengan el permiso
de la autorización de Irán. Y esto crea que por
ahí las aseguradoras se retiren, se hagan a un
lado y digan, no, no, no, nosotros ya no nos
vamos a comprometer. Y bueno, todo esto explica
la subida del precio del barril del petróleo.
Y ahora hoy hablaban de la parte más... And on
the other hand, Trump responds. I mean, imagine
that the operation they have there is called
epic fury. And Trump's answer is. Where they
bomb a ship, where they eliminate a ship that
wants to pass, now it's going seriously. The
entire US military force is going there, including
soldiers, marines, everything in territory. It's
already an invasion as such, not just air. So,
look, how far is the scale of violence going?
And these declarations of, I don't see space
for diplomacy, that is, not even the possibility.
to fix the conflict in a diplomatic way. Because,
sorry, Trump also ended up with international
law. There is no diplomacy, but because the United
States blew it up. And it blew it up on January
3rd. It's not like before with the aranceles
and commercial issues, but in terms of military
interventions, on January 3rd, international
law ended when they invaded a country and kidnapped
its president and took him to New York. This,
let's say, is additional and is a consequence
of the same. So, of course, it is to worry. It
seems very distant. Sometimes, when we see it
on Channel 11, that we are always watching the
news there, and it seems very distant, what happens
in Iran, but it impacts us directly, and this
can escalate, as Tona said last week, to other
countries intervening, to other countries being
part of the conflict, and we are already talking
about a historical issue that we do not want
to talk about in this program. I would debate
with the idea that is raised in terms of that
the United States continues with a debacle or
weakness. The growth of the gross domestic product
by the end of 2025 was around 2 .2 % real. That
exceeds the initial and medium expectations of...
especially because of the level of investments
that were announced in the speech to the nation
that we also commented here live 15 days ago.
It was announced at that time that it was 18
trillion dollars that were arriving in terms
of investments. So I don't see a weak United
States where its reindustrialization strategy
is not working. It seems to me that this is an
average strategy. long -term, not immediate,
and above all also because announcements in different
countries have been canceled by transnational
companies that are relocating in the United States,
or at least announcing the relocation of part
of their production plant. That seems to me that
it is also key to analyze what is happening in
the economy of the United States. I would also
debate with the general idea that... People don't
see it with good eyes, the Americans, the war,
especially because the majority of Republicans
still see with very good eyes the Trump administration.
So it seems to me that it speaks to that base
that maybe weakened a little, and especially
as you raised at the beginning, you said about
Epstein and how that did a lot of damage to the
government and its voters, to the polls, and
how the discourse now and all the media are focused
on the tensions in the Middle East, in the world,
and all the revelations that were being made
have been left aside. So it seems that it is
also a winning communication strategy at the
expense of... What he doesn't care so much about
is the world economy. But not only to his followers,
but to all the North Americans, because we are
obviating here a fundamental issue, that the
pretext of Trump, of his government, for the
intervention in Iran, was what he said, because
there is no document from the Department of War,
which is now called the Department of War, nor
the Pentagon, nor anything. But Trump says, in
these... Lies. We're done. He's not the champion,
but he lies a lot. There was a threat. There
was a threat from Iran of an attack on the United
States. He justifies it like that. He says to
you, North American, hey, they were going to
attack us. So I went ahead. It's the thesis of
the legitimate defense. Yes, but I would like
to differ, Tona, with what you say. No, with
you. That the Republicans are closing lines with
Trump. In the state of the nation, in the speech,
when it was given account, we talked about more
than 60 % of the base of Republicans, this according
to surveys that were published that day, perhaps
it has already changed, but I doubt it. The New
York Times, The Times, The Wall Street Journal,
After these declarations came out of the Iranian
army, for the markets to fall, for the oil to
go to the clouds, for him to come out and say,
the war is over. And he calmed the markets. And
he calmed the markets with a narrative. He also
needed a day to calm the markets, especially
a call, the call he had with Putin, which is
just that. something very important that must
be taken into account in the analysis. If it
is maintained or any veto is completely eliminated
to international trade that Russia can have,
especially with Europe, surely the oil prices
will continue to go down. It is that there I
agree, sorry, with you. in which the war conflict
that we saw between Russia and Ukraine is moving
to the Middle East, and the G7 should, in some
way, set the foundations of an agreement with
Russia, because they will be able to have access
to cheaper gas that China was concentrating.
And China managed to grow very strongly. And
China... reduces their growth expectations for
GDP. And Mexico, coincidentally, after the FMI
said, get ready for the worst, when Troma comes
out to say, the war is going to end, we bring
1 .8 % growth for GDP in 2026. Do we see logic
in this? I think so. And 2 % for 2027. So it's
a reaccommodation of forces. The key is, for
how long? Vamos a aguantar. A mí también me gustaría
polemizar con Tonatiuh en esta ocasión sobre
la situación particular que tiene Estados Unidos.
Por supuesto que Estados Unidos es una economía
grande. It is an economy that still has a lot
of capabilities. It was, throughout the 20th
century, abiding in this power. But there is
a fact, a fact that is more of a historical structural
cut that has to do with, for example, the weight
of the manufacturing of the real process of transformation
of the United States represented in the 70s a
25 % of its GDP and is currently at 9%. That
is, it comes in a systematic fall and that is
precisely what, in addition, in the contrast
of technological development. China has practically
surpassed this pace in all sectors. So, in that
sense, I mean this situation of structural weakness,
which is actually what explains the need that
the United States has to continue intervening
in the other countries. That is, right now that
we were talking about Ukraine, we were talking
about Gaza, we were talking about Iran, it is
actually a complete geopolitical fracture. These
are events that have been happening separately,
but it's the same fracture. Fracture of what?
Of that system, of that North American century.
It's no longer being able to establish this power.
I think that's exactly why you're giving him
the reason. This trepidating fall in manufacturing
and others is Trump's agenda. Precisamente para
los aranceles, esto para regresar la manufactura.
Exactamente. Creo que es lo que quisiste decir.
Sí, pero nada más. Nada más. Nada más. Nada más.
Se habló. Lo que Tona quiso decir. Exacto. La
agenda de trompecesa. Es esos datos que tú estás
dando. El Mega America. Claro. La intentona.
El asunto es de que no. Él quiere regresar. Que
armen los coches en Estados Unidos. Claro. Que
ya no los hagan en Brasil. Que no los hagan en
México. Y el asunto es si lo está consiguiendo.
or not. That is to say, the war is already lost.
Why? Because the war on salary sought to mine
the export capacities of China and did not achieve
it. Right now, with that same war on salary,
even the court itself is telling him to return
the money. That is to say, I do not see much
coordination of industrial policy in that sense.
And also, the 2 .2 % growth of the American economy,
well, it cannot but contrast with the 36 billion
debt that it has there. And many They're also
waiting, right, doctor? You always talk here
about the great economic cycles, right? They're
very long. And in the end, Trump's mandate is
four years, even if they look like 20. And the
great investments, the relocation of complete
production factories and everything, they can
wait. I mean, there are also great companies
that manufacture vehicles and other issues in
other parts of the world that are waiting then,
right? For it to also change. No necesariamente
el partido puede repetir el partido republicano,
pero sí el personaje. Bueno, es que aprovecho
para polemizar rápido también con algo que dijiste
atrás en la mesa sobre Trump como el personaje.
Pero no olvidemos que Trump es el reflejo de
una crisis estructural de los Estados Unidos.
Es decir, aún saliendo Trump, aún en esta espera,
no tenemos elementos para decir que ahora van
a tener una política radicalmente distinta porque
es también una situación de... The existence
of the United States itself in its capacity to
accumulate. And there I think that point must
be emphasized, because from now on, although
there may be a wait, although it may already
be wanting to recover this process, the eastern
market is growing three times faster than the
North American at the moment. It can get worse
the one that follows, it can be worse Maduro
than Chávez, you never know. Oh, my God, I got
lost a little bit there in the image. No, well,
they wanted to take it off and make everything
change, and then worse come. Well, it's because
you're talking about China. Maybe you don't agree
with that. No, but it happened in Venezuela.
And then there are second floors that are worse
than the first. There are second floors that
are worse than the first, but time will tell.
The one of President Shimon is extraordinary.
No, I didn't say which one. Returning to the
subject of the discussion. of these ideas that
the population of the United States has, or its
own guild or sector of the Republican Party,
or the hard core of the sympathizers of its MAGA
movement. It seems to me that all these criticisms,
all this social debate is also being generated
because some steps were omitted, such as going
to Congress. If it had gone through the Congress,
having the majority in the Congress, I would
have had support and then not only would it be
the president in office, but the parliament sustaining
a decision, a state policy, whether desperate
or not, whether in debacle or to consecrate an
hegemony. And that same lack of deliberation
is carried out in international forums, which
is what Paul was also mentioning. de cómo se
da una destrucción de todos estos espacios y
por eso viene la negativa a la diplomacia. Quédense
por favor con nosotros. Estamos Economía y Política
este martes. Recuerden, escriban a redes sociales.
Regresamos. Gracias por continuar en la barra
de análisis de los medios públicos. Seguimos
hablando del costo internacional del barril del
petróleo. And Ursula von der Leyen, who is the
top political leader in the European Union, described
it as a fallacy that the United States' allies
can be deployed in a world in chaos. She denies
the no to the war in Spain. And she says they
have to continue as allies of Donald Trump. What
does this say about the environment of energy?
The European Union, which was left without gas,
without oil, when it had the conflict with Ukraine,
is now trying to concentrate all the conflict
for energy in the Middle East. And Mexico? Mexico
with a growth in internal consumption that many
said that it had fallen, that it was half. Well,
the data confirmed in December is that we have
a growth of 1 .2 % of the product, of consumption.
And while it is true that the investment fell,
today we had meetings of European investors in
the National Palace. We have already had visits
from many investors who want to be in Mexico.
How is our country observed in this geopolitical
environment? It seems to me that we are, as has
happened with the type of change, that we are
that part where investors bet on a currency that
has the guarantee of trade with the most powerful
country in the world, which has the T -MEC. y
que se está revisando ya el tema, creo que México
se ve bien. Ese me parece un buen contraste justo
con la perspectiva de que Estados Unidos está
en un franco declive. El análisis de las empresas
de distintos rubros, sobre todo las internacionales,
donde dicen, pues le voy a apostar por... by
Mexico, where there are a series of structured
plans to strengthen the national infrastructure,
the energy part, the development of rail routes,
that is, there are a series of plans to enhance
the industry and, above all, in geographical
terms, the United States remains the largest
market in the world. So, it seems to me that...
an important variable to take into account when
we talk about the fall or not fall of the United
States as an economy or as a hegemon, as a power.
That first. I would also like to say that the
tool that we have at IEPS is not just anything,
it is a powerful tool of economic policy to benefit
the whole society, the companies, the families,
because having controlled the price of gasoline
in general, we know that most of the commercialization
of consumables, of fuel, in general, is done
through the roads. So, if you control the price
of fuels, you also mitigate any effect on people's
pockets. That's very important. It's not just
about, because they raised it just when there
was this price increase in 2022, the benefit
will only be for vehicle drivers. Of course,
the benefit is transferred to the entire economy,
and that's fundamental to understand why this
tool, yes, generates a gap in particular in public
income, but it's not the only tax you have to
support the public administration. Yes, let's
see, what you were saying, Claudia, You said
Mexico looks very good for many reasons for the
investors, but particularly for the commercial
bond it has with the United States. So yes, and
the T -MEC, yes, but it doesn't help us much
the United States to give that image. Making
Latin American meetings where they don't invite
us and don't call us. Eh, diciendo que la revisión.
Ni quién quiere estar ahí. Y qué bueno que no.
Bueno, no sé si ustedes no quieran estar ahí,
pero yo estoy hablando. Junto con Miguel. Pero
es que no se puede hablar aquí si cuatro interrumpen
al mismo tiempo al que está hablando. Pero bueno,
si quieren hablen los cuatro y cuando terminen
ya hablo yo. Paul quiere que. Hablen uno, dos,
tres, cuatro y luego ya al final. Tú quieres
que la presidenta Sheymon esté sentada junto
con Miguel. Yo lo que estoy diciendo, pero fíjate
a quién critico. No critiqué a la presidenta.
No dije que nos morimos de ganas de estar en
las reuniones. Estoy diciendo que la imagen de
México ante los inversionistas del mundo, Estados
Unidos no nos ayuda. No ayuda que Trump salga
y diga, no me importa si mañana termina el Tratado
de Libre Comercio. Me da lo mismo. Estamos en
revisión, pero yo puedo terminar el tratado este
mismo año. Eso no ayuda. No ayuda tampoco que
haga reuniones con sus cuates y no nos invite.
Tampoco ayuda. No es una buena imagen para México.
¿Qué si es una buena imagen? Estoy del lado de
Tona esta noche. ¿Qué se invierta en infraestructura?
Los trenes de pasajeros. ¿Qué se invierta? A
ver, todo eso, claro, que contribuye. Solamente...
Tengo esta diferencia con lo que dijo Claudia
de que nos fortalece mucho esta relación con
Estados Unidos. Hijo, el Estados Unidos pienso
que no nos está ayudando mucho en la imagen hacia
el exterior. En la narrativa. La verdad no nos
ayuda. Yo entiendo que así hace política Trump.
Y así dice la presidenta cada que le preguntan
en la mañana. Oiga, es que el presidente dijo
nos que. Y dice, tranquilos, así se expresa él,
así habla, es su forma. Bueno, pues esa forma
no nos ayuda. That's what I mean. I'm not saying
that we're knocking on the door in Washington.
No, please invite us with my law to take a picture
of us. No, but it doesn't help. No, but a process.
I mean, it's true that it doesn't help, but in
reality right now we're in a spring of direct
foreign investment reception. So let's say that
it helps us, that it doesn't. It's already in
the background. Because what Mexico is receiving.
That it mistreats us. No, no, no. Because in
reality there is no mistreatment. No, but if
the one who wanted to mistreat us is you. No,
no, no. If we all celebrated when they went there.
They will remember the concept of nearshoring
or relocation. This is what it means, precisely.
The North American market is in this problematic.
Of course, it needs this recovery. And in that
leap is where Mexico, of course, is one of the
engines of reindustrialization in both the general
zone and the world knows it, regardless of Trump's
declarations, because everyone on the planet
knows that those declarations are a lie. But
they are directed by the reasons of speculation
that it is having in the financial markets. So
that is already discounted. That has forced to
make a concrete evaluation of the conditions.
And that is where, that is why it is relevant.
Every time investors come from different points,
it is because they know that that is a condition
that is of a geographical fate for being neighbors.
But it is above all a powerful geoeconomic condition.
there are few places where these reindustrialization
processes are existing, which, as has been pointed
out in the economic indicators, we are still
on the side of the old G7 structure that is already
trying to overcome, that is, countries with low
growth, in contrast to those countries that dedicate
industrial policy, they are the ones that are
having better conditions, the ones that are having
activity, that are having these mechanisms, for
example, The IEPS is one of them that is very,
very powerful. But let's not forget that this,
in the last instance, has to take us to strengthen
and accelerate the passage of the Mexico Plan
and the industrial planning, because it is the
only thing that will guarantee you sovereignty
in the 21st century. I agree with Paul when he
says that Trump does not help us for certain
audiences, for certain audiences. Cuando no nos
ayuda a Trump para esas audiencias que quieren
que Trump ponga orden, que Trump con su estilo
autoritario relocalice las inversiones, ahí sí
no nos ayuda. O que dejen vilo el Tratado de
Libre Comercio. No nos ayuda, pero donde sí nos
ayuda es... cuando se refrenda que México tiene
un modelo de energía, un modelo petrolero diferente.
Hoy la prensa internacional, les cuento, está
hablando ya de un concepto que me llamó mucho
la atención, que es la cubastroica. Garantía
para la familia Castro y una reforma en el sector
de energía para Cuba. Eso le está pidiendo Trump
a Cuba. Y lo que quiere es meter la mano en los
muchos o pocos recursos que tenga Cuba. Dijo
que se quiere hacer de la isla de manera amistosa.
Pero vean qué importante es el concepto de energía.
Y no podemos ser cándidos cuando pensamos que
somos vecinos, socios, de un gigante que quiere
controlar los recursos petroleros y de energía
a nivel mundial. Here, what we have of resistance,
and we have to defend it, is that there will
be no treason in the use of oil resources. There
will be a negotiation that should benefit the
people of Mexico. So, it doesn't benefit us that
it doesn't invite us with my law. Why? Because
it puts us on the other side, where is the decision
of a people to defend their energy sovereignty.
Dignity, that is relevant for the relationship.
It closed with an aggression, I no longer knew
what to think. But well, the point of what I
was saying is, it does not help us. And what
about the IEPS, just to explain it, because it
is that later... Arrojan aquí muchos términos.
Es un colchón que tiene la gasolina para aguantar.
Es dinero al final. O sea, sí, claro que es una
buena herramienta. Claro, es dinero público.
Es una buena herramienta para mitigar cualquier
cosa. I hope you don't have to use it, I hope
you don't have to apply this tool, because it
does mean reducing the capacity of infrastructure,
of hospitals, of medicines. I hope you have it.
Yes, that's what you have. Well, you have it
because you pay your taxes. You who is watching
us, thanks to you, you have that tool. I hope
the prices of gasoline don't go up, so much so
that... Tenga que haber este subsidio para que
no suba la gasolina y no se use ese dinero en
otras cosas. La diferencia. Ojalá. Los amortiguadores.
Pero es que no lo pongas. Ay, qué bueno. Y la
diferencia es que es público. Cuando pasas por
un bache, es bueno que traigas amortiguadores.
Y la diferencia es que podemos decidir. Ojalá
que no tengamos que usarlo. Bueno, súmense a
este buen pensamiento de que ojalá no suba la
gasolina. A lo que no me sumo es a ese deseo
de ir a sentarse con mi ley. Bueno, yo voy a
decir algo que aquí quizás me van a censurar.
Censurar algunos de los temas. El canal no se
llama Censura. This program is very weird. I
can say what I want. I can say what I want, but
maybe in the audience there is some reaction.
Mexico could start producing oil with new technologies.
I don't want to say the word forbidden, but it's
the difference. We can decide it according to
the interests of our country. The rule of the
game during the next few weeks is going to be
called oil scarcity. o disponibilidad de petróleo
y México lo tiene. That's the good news. Yes,
I think that in the face of a crisis situation,
of course, it's a very good idea to have not
only the shock absorbers, but also the additional
plans, strategies, production. This is definitely
very important. I would like to clarify this
matter of Jeff's, because I think it is important
that those who listen to us have it in mind.
For example, when there was the crisis of Russia
and Ukraine, we are also talking, it is very
similar to what is happening right now. That's
precisely what the method was, is that when the
price of the oil barrel rises, more money enters,
oil income to the country, and this, obviously,
is used as compensation for what is lost for
the gas. So, well, the figures were tables at
that time. We are talking about practically 400
million pesos that, as well as you receive, you
use them, but here the important thing is to
put tables in front. a la tormenta. Eso es lo
importante aquí, que no te llegue este problema,
esta tormenta totalmente desorganizada. Es decir,
canalizas con una política fiscal muy clara.
México, por cada dólar que sube el precio, recibe
11 .6 mil millones de pesos y que ahorita ya
va en el presupuesto, está en 54 dólares. Eso
te iba a preguntar, ¿anda como en 20 y tantos
por ciento arriba? Y está ahorita en 77, en la
última cotización. So, well, this is a new way
of understanding the economy, that is, we have
a mechanism to be able to be amortizing these
baches, these different storms, while you remain
full in the development of industrial policy,
that is, that is already an organized strategy
and that is why this fiscal policy, we could
say that it is a containment to remain in priority
works, in planning, in trains, in all the mechanisms
that we are doing. recuperación porque insisto
estamos recibiendo históricamente inversión extranjera
directa pues estamos además proyectando los polos
de bienestar que son la forma en la cual vamos
a empezar a canalizar para un nuevo entorno productivo
entonces tenemos que acelerar ese ese camino
y frente al pesimismo de trump Sorry, from Paul.
I would have confused you too. Yes, right? That
aggression. What's going on? The other day, Secretary
Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy, announced
that he was already in full communication with
his partner in the United States and that they
had agreed to start with a date. And I also see
another space, and I also see another space.
No, I'm all less right -wing. And I also see
another space. for a growth of a relevant sector
in Mexico, which is tourism. Because everything
that this instability is generating, both in
Europe and in the Middle East, can easily be
capitalized by tourism in Mexico. North Americans
will prefer to visit a nearby country. than to
take any risk. We only saw when a drone landed
in an Arab Emirates airport how the Dubai airport
closed for a couple of days and that meant the
cancellation of thousands of flights and an impact
of thousands of millions of dollars. That's why
it's so important that... I mean, it doesn't
help in the trailers burned on the roads and
things like that, but yes, there are areas of
opportunity. And it doesn't help that information
is given that is not true, or that it is extrapolated,
or that a country that is in the middle of a
dustbin is shown when it is not happening. We
are a huge country where we can have many problems,
but the responsibility of the media... is to
put the information in its right dimension, because
we need that tourism, we need the visitors to
come. And a great year is coming for tourism,
look, the World Cup is coming. Because the World
Cup is not just the 16 games that are going to
happen, but also... Todo lo que se está creando
alrededor y el FanFest, y creo que el FanFest
del Zócalo capitalino va a ser el más grande
del mundo. El record line es una cosa. Y ese
ambiente mundialista que invita a selecciones
del mundo entero a estar por acá, pues claro
que va a detonar el turismo este año. Seguramente
lo vamos a ver. Es decir, cuando sea el reporte
de fin de año de la cantidad de turistas extranjeros.
Y nacionales también. to agree on politics. And
that we can see Iran in the World Cup. Because
it's qualified. And it has three parties in the
United States. I want to see, in Los Angeles,
the selection of Iran singing its national anthem.
Because that's how it's planned until today.
It's scheduled. I know it seems crazy. But let
me think that politics, on this occasion, can
win it. La fuerza de la política a la política
de la fuerza. Dice Juan Villoro, Dios es redondo.
Entonces confiemos en que el fútbol vuelva a
ser su magia. Pero yo quiero terminar, Juma.
Rights Watch. is political, not only are they
plans of a regime or of a political system that
is in crisis, it is the life of many people.
Stay on Channel 11, Channel 22, Economy and Politics.
Esto fue una producción de Canal 11 y Canal 22.