This is a production of Channel 11 and Channel
22. The United States military began major combat
operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend
the American people by eliminating imminent threats
from the Iranian regime. CENTCOM shared the news
that three US military service members have been
killed in action. As one nation, we grieve for
the... true American patriots who have made the
ultimate sacrifice for our nation. Even as we
continue the righteous mission, the United States
and its partners have launched Operation Epic
Fury, one of the largest, most complex, most
overwhelming military offensives the world has
ever seen. Nobody's seen anything like it. We
have hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including
Revolutionary Guard facilities, Iranian air defense
systems. Just now, it was announced that we knocked
out nine ships plus their naval building. All
in a matter of literally minutes. Iran's formerly
supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead.
This wretched and vile man had the blood of hundreds
and even thousands. of Americans on his hands.
but only through a reasonable, authentic and
responsible dialogue. The UN stopped doing its
job. Countries with more military force are being
imposed. And that can't be. After the Second
World War, the objective was guarantee a space
where each nation had the same representation.
Hello, good evening. Thank you for being with
us in Maciozare. This is a co -production of
Channel 11 and Channel 22. It is themed according
to the day of the week. Today is Tuesday and
it is the turn of economy and politics. My name
is Tonatiuh Martínez, economist. Y antes de empezar,
le doy la bienvenida a mis compañeros, a mi compañera,
el doctor Oscar Rojas, economista también. ¿Qué
tal? Buenas noches. Hamlet Almaguer, maestro
en Derecho Procesal Constitucional. Buenas noches.
Claudia Villegas, maestra en Periodismo y especialista
en Indicadores Macroeconómicos. Buenas noches,
buenas noches a todos. Y Paul Hospital, maestro
en Gobierno y Políticas Públicas. Hola, buenas
noches a todos. Well, today we will talk about
two issues, destabilization in the Middle East
and the report of results of the Mexican oil
company Pemex. We are going to start with destabilization
in the Middle East. And well, some initial data.
The United States and Israel, on February 28
of this year, last Saturday, launched aerial
attacks on Iran. The objective was the residence
of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran.
Well, they achieved their objective. This person,
who was the head of state in Iran, dies in the
attacks. And they also launched attacks on different
objectives. Very unfortunate, and I think we
have to condemn precisely the massacre on a primary
school, where at least there is the report of
85 Iranian girls dead. Regrettable and catastrophic.
A hospital in Tehran was also attacked. and another
six high commandos died, including the Iranian
Minister of Defense. There are immediate consequences
and a response from Iran. The first is the closure
of the Ormuz Strait. This is a strategic geographical
enclave for the world. Around one in five barrels
are consumed worldwide. And this has consequences
in three periods, short, medium and long term.
In the short term, we talk about between four
and five weeks. The president of the United States
said that he expects to finish the operation
in this time. And let's say that if this does
not end in this term, we could already see strong
consequences on the economy and probably on the
policy even of the United States. The medium
term would be one to four months. And there we
are talking about, above all, the increase in
energy inflation. And that has obvious consequences
that we already know from the war between Ukraine
and Russia. It unleashed inflation. mundial en
el 22 ese es algo que puede pasar sobre todo
porque estamos ya viendo el incremento en los
precios del petróleo y del gas cae un poco el
oro cae la plata cae el bitcoin algunos mercados
hoy ya presentaban disminuciones disminuciones
interesantes el nikkei el dac en fin esto podría
tener consecuencias porque la lectura de los
mercados puede ser que Thank you very much. I
join the condemnation of the barbarity. de la
guerra. Yo creo que no es un detalle menor todo
lo que estamos observando. Es una crisis ya de
deshumanización fuerte. Es decir, estamos hablando
de que es una guerra que no está ni siquiera
generando en el horizonte que se estuvieran alcanzando
realmente los objetivos. ¿Cuáles son los objetivos?
Abrir espacio para tener un control de Medio
Oriente estratégico de cara, por supuesto, a
la crisis de los Estados Unidos, pero sobre todo
para detener o contener lo que está sucediendo
in Eurasia, which is a different economic dynamic
with other capacities, other social formations.
And this is not liking the United States. The
United States is very weakened in its global
hegemony. And in that sense, here it seems to
me that the battle of the narrative is also being
lost, even within the United States. So the internal
crisis is being supported. The international
crisis is also being supported, which is not
good to be playing with fire and obviously this
can have a very important escalation, not only
in terms of the consequences that may be on the
markets, but above all the escalation, that is,
the convocation that the different countries
that have been stagnant, I am particularly referring
to the G7 in general, are opting for war to try
to thwart the stagnation of their economies.
So I think we can't allow that, that is, there
has to be a clear geopolitical announcement.
de la búsqueda de la paz, pero no en el sentido
diplomático. Ya sabemos también que la ONU ha
tenido sus momentos ya críticos, ya ha sido totalmente
rebasada esta institución histórica, ya no ha
podido detener esto o la masacre del genocidio
en Palestina. Y pues yo creo que tenemos que
empezar a hacer otra movilización política a
escala internacional, convocando de profundidad
a un movimiento internacional por la paz. Sí
es hora de un nuevo... a model for international
public law, because these principles, let's say,
begin with the equality between states on the
international level, with the non -use of force,
let's say, to assume or achieve the objectives
that each entity has. Well, it is already evident
that there was not even a proposal before the
General Assembly or before the Security Council
itself, which in itself presupposes a point of
inequality, because it is a club of powerful
countries, let's say, in economic or military
matters, which have the right to veto, which
can raise issues of another... But by not even
going through that stage, it already speaks to
us of a total contempt for international instances
and the inability to react. That is why President
Sheinbaum synthesized it very well in the morning
conference. And they enter here, let's say, a
question that catches my attention. For many
specialists, including Dr. Oscar, this constitutes
a war, only that there has not been a formal
declaration by the US Congress. And this is developed,
founded on a sentence that the Supreme Court
of the United States gave in the early years
of the 19th century. where they determine that
at an internal level there is a distribution
of competences between the State and the Federation,
but that at an international level all the competences
are of the President of the Republic. and they
allow him to act under very broad margins. So
at the international level, yes, we consider
it as evident acts of war, but if you ask in
the United States, because he did not pass through
the Congress, formally he did not. Iran is a
country with 90 million inhabitants, the 24th
largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing
power, the 14th largest in terms of military
strength, so it is not a minor conflict. Well,
recovering this issue of short and medium -term
economic and financial impacts, Me gustaría citar
lo que ha sucedido hoy y que pareciera que Donald
Trump se estuvo preparando durante meses con
un poco de dinero, de dólares o mucho en las
arcas de Estados Unidos. Platicábamos de cómo
el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos no debe olvidarse.
Estados Unidos sigue muy presionado en sus finanzas
públicas. Y ha dado la orden a Scott Besant de
que frente a la negativa de España de permitir
el acceso a bases militares en territorio español,
comience una nueva escalada, una nueva ofensiva
comercial contra España. Ha platicado ya también
con el canciller Friedrich Merz. of the party
of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany,
who is the Prime Minister, the German Chancellor,
about the consequences. And the German Chancellor
said, I'm not going to give lessons to my partners.
This leads me to think that in the face of the
closure of Ormuz, and we have from the Strait
of Ormuz, We have a map there so that our audience
can locate how this stretch of no more than 30,
40 kilometers is marking with great concern what
can be considered a systemic rupture. Here the
big question is if we are going to have a systemic
risk. The Gulf countries will have to decide
if they join a war. The former Foreign Minister
of the United Arab Emirates also said on his
Twitter account, your war is not with your neighbors.
They wrote the Gulf countries and they sought
in some way to have investments in arms with
the United States and get along with Iran. They
knew that this moment was coming and today they
have to make the decision. The price of oil was
very pressured, the WTI. And he said that the
United States was preparing Trump with a little
money in their pockets because he gave orders
to give subsidies to shipping companies to guarantee
that oil would continue to pass, that oil would
arrive. That's what I have to say for now, but
the repercussions are many. No, well, economic,
social repercussions. And above all, one thinks,
where are we going and how far will it go? I
saw you last Tuesday, that I couldn't be with
you, but Tonatiuh was talking about, it's that
now he's going for Iran. Trump predicted it and
it happened. And then now, before entering, I
said, well, and what's next? And sometimes we
could build scenarios that seemed unimaginable.
Pero cuando hacemos un pequeño ejercicio de retrospectiva,
Trump lleva 13 meses de gobierno. Lleva un año,
¿eh? Nada más. Un año. Yo sé que parecen 20.
Pero lleva un año de cuatro. Y solamente hay
que revisar lo que ha sucedido. Y las cuestiones
que todos hubiéramos apostado que no iban a suceder.
Que a pesar de esta... culture of Yankee imperialism,
of extending, of dominating through the economic
or military force to others, well, he was not
going to dare to take certain steps. Well, he
has done them all. So it does become a matter
of concern to see a president who presumes this
military strategy, which is a war. What a good
explanation does Hamlet give? But it is at the
end of the day a document that differentiates
it. whether it's a war or not, but let's see,
the images that were circulating, that continue
to circulate, of the bombings, of the planes,
but a good part of its voters, and the president
himself, sees it with jubilation, as a sign of
the strength they have against the entire world.
We already see who we see with great concern,
of this new reality where there is no international
law. That is the reality today, in the world.
Today there is no international organization
that can mediate. Today what exists is the use
of force. And today what it is demonstrating
is that the strongest, militarily, is the one
who is going to make decisions unilaterally,
even above its own normativity, with this safety
of the Congress. Because then there will be those
who bet that in November, which are the elections
of the Congress of the United States, there will
be a stop to Donald Trump. Because they are going
to win the Democrats according to the polls.
Well, he has not asked for permission from the
Congress at all. Correct. So, rather, it worries
me that winning the Democrats, we have a Trump
president who radicalizes even more. Using as
a pretext to a congress that wants to put a stop
to it, to advance much more fervently, as it
has done in recent months. So, yes, it is to
worry. Iran is not far away. Venezuela is not
far away. The intervention in Cuba is not far
away. Greenland let it rest for a few days. But
this thought and how it has grown in a single
year, the military actions of the United States,
the actions in economic matters for the world,
well, if it is to worry about humanity, I do
not want to scandalize the audience, but it is
to worry about humanity. Quite now that you said
about how the strongest is going to decide the
destiny of the nations, just Macron. visited
a series of nuclear submarines that they have
in Brittany, in the south of France. There he
sang the anthem and gave a speech where he said,
or suggested, that in order for there to be peace,
you have to make sure they don't mess with your
country. And that implies, precisely, that you
must increase your nuclear arsenal. He said that
from now on you will start a... It's a series
of processes. It's a phrase to be respected and
to be afraid of something like that. The nuclear
dissuasion. He spoke of nuclear dissuasion from
this rearmament. He also speaks in his speech
about China and Russia. I think he clearly separates
two groups, a bipolar world, in that case, where
I think he separates Russia and China on the
one hand and puts the West on the other. in a
very clear way, here in the National Hymn, in
front of all the troops, and well, it gives an
important speech. Iran attacks a British base
and consequently France, the United Kingdom and
Greece send reinforcements to Cyprus, just to
potentially initiate operations similar to those
of the United States and Israel. So, that is
key, and also the decision, as Claudia already
commented, that the countries of the Gulf, which
are neighbors of... America Powerful! Macio Sari.
Thank you for continuing in the public media
analysis bar. We continue talking about destabilization
in the Middle East. And well, I'll steal a minute
from my colleagues just to talk about additional
consequences in global terms. In Asia, China,
India, Japan and South Korea receive 84 % of
their crude from these countries that right now
cannot commercialize anything. There are around
200 large ships that are stopped in the Strait
of... Europe is already facing important inflationary
pressures. We said that the price of liquefied
gas rose by 50 % in a couple of days. The demand
curve is tightening a lot. And in the long term,
it also affects the bonds. I already mentioned
it. Especially in the emerging markets. We're
going to see that. Because, let's say, they're
going to be placed as countries of greater risk
and they're going to have a negative effect in
that sense. And potentially we could see what
happened just in 2022, which is this inflation,
a very important growth in inflation. And in
terms of production, the fall of the world economy
is going to decrease. That is a great long -term
risk. And finally, let's talk about this energy
shock and how... Well, let's say the Arab Emirates
have tried to move operations for one or another
life, but they have not been able to. One of
its main infrastructures was on fire because
a couple of missiles fell. Qatar massively closed
production. And we are talking about a supply
crisis in the next few days. And in a weakened
economy. And here it would seem very important
to me that we remember the position, not only
of the Dormu Strait, but the general geographical
position of Iran, as a connector between the
entire Asian market, which is buoyant, and all
the interconnectivity towards Europe through
the Euro -Asian route. And that in some way we
have seen from the pressure of the NATO that
it exerted towards Russia, we have seen how the
United States has been trying to prevent even
European countries from connecting to this market.
So, remember that most of the objectives are
not only to reach for oil, which of course is
a strategic reason for weight, but it also talks
about a strategy that although right now the
United States, as it was pointed out, has a problem
of a deficit, a terrible debt, It also has very
few technological capabilities. So, in all this
context, it can no longer reach China, even in
the same documents of the US security strategy,
because it is already clear that they will not
try to go directly over China, simply establish
another type of alignment. They speak of a supposed
tripolarity between China, Russia and the United
States, but what is happening in reality is that
China is multiplying its capacities every year
as well. That is, with all this scene of war
in the United States, it contrasts with the solid
advances that China is not only having, but also
the other commercial structures that are now
sprouting everywhere, even the Europeans themselves
are now going to China and establishing an understanding
that the United States is no longer reliable
and therefore the alternatives are also issues
of life or death for the different economies.
Iran is a key piece. I think we could identify
what is happening as a desperate attempt by the
United States to stop the possible advance. Well,
not the contundent advance that the Asian nation
is having. But, for example, here I cannot take
advantage of having three expert economists and
that they do not help us here with the public.
All this. de cómo está cambiando el precio del
barril del petróleo, el tema del gas natural,
la oferta, la demanda, que si están detenidos,
que si no puede pasar. Al final, ¿cómo lo vamos
a aterrizar en México? Es decir, a las personas
aquí, para que nos haga sentido también en temas
económicos, porque al final del día, pues estamos
inmersos en esta globalización. Y sobre todo,
pues en el tema del petróleo, del precio del
barril del petróleo en México, ¿cómo va a afectar
la economía mexicana? ¿Hacia dónde ven que va
esto? I think that one of the main problems is
related to the increase in the price of gas.
We still depend a lot on the import of gas from
the United States, and not because it is directly
related, because we are not considering it that
way, but because it is a global market, and if
the price of gas rises in some part of the world,
it will be shot down by different regions. So,
depending on an important amount of gas from
the United States, and if it tends to rise, why
do we use gas? To generate energy. So the energy
that we use in Mexico depends a lot on American
gas. Now, if we would have a direct impact as
citizens, not necessarily. In fact, when the
prices of gas grew around 2021, when there was
a great cold, when pipes were frozen in Texas
and in different parts of... Thank you very much.
the best in the countries of the OCDE, not only
in the part of the gas, also because through
the control of the price of the gas that is exercised
by the modification of the IEPS, it is not transferred
to the consumers. So there is probably an impact
on public finances, but not on consumers. And
the privates did close their plants. When they
saw the increase in prices, they stopped producing.
That's why it's so healthy. the threshold that
is in the constitutional text of 54 % of production
by the state 46 % by the private sector, because
if one of the two engines is turned off, you
can continue to operate. And it is part of the
principle of energy security that is not to depend
on the private sector, because goodbye, of course.
And remember that this was the model that we
have been defending for six years. To have a
oil company that we are going to talk about that
later. But at this moment, we have an increase
in oil. Transport will increase. Diesel will
rise. This will be transferred to the cost of
goods. And this is a story that we already lived
when Russia invaded Ukraine, when we had problems
with the Nord Stream gas pipeline, where... We
had this component. The rule of the game is called
scarcity. And the scarcity of a resource as important
as the energy one generates inflation. We are
going to have inflationary pressures again. And
as you well mentioned, Tonatiuh, Mexico has a
very important net effect. If the price of oil
increases, then we are going to have more income.
We are going to have to net the impact on gasoline.
There is coverage. Pemex has prepared for this.
But I insist, the most important thing is to
have a model of energy self -sufficiency that
puts us in a very interesting position. China
receives 5 million barrels a day from the Ormuz
route. India, Japan, South Korea. And I would
like to say that this is not only a short -term
impact, but it is an impact that seeks to plant
the structures of the economic poles that are
being developed. And I mean the BRICS. So the
traffic of the Ormuz Strait is one of its geopolitical
risks. that also change the economic structure
in the long term and we have an inflationary
impact. Here the question is how many countries?
¿Cuántas empresas, cuántos consumidores pueden
resistir otra vez el impacto de la inflación?
Corre, sí. A mí me gustaría rápidamente nada
más también adherir a todo esto que se está planteando.
Y me parece prudente la pregunta de cuál es el
efecto inmediato. Recordar que también en toda
esta dinámica histórica tan intensa que hemos
estado viviendo, es verdad que México está en
una condición macroeconómica muy fuerte. Hay
mucha... Exactly. So we have a lot of resistance
to that kind of storm. There is also this mechanism
of the IEPS, which is a mechanism that also allows
to avoid that the effects reach the final consumer.
It is known and is part of the economic model
of the fourth transformation, the one that is
under control, the liter of gasoline, because
this is obviously the one that can generate or
not a price increase. we have been seeing in
the model is that inflation has been in accordance
with the objectives. We had a primary financial
storm at the time of the elections in 2024 that
came from Japan and we resisted it. We recovered
the currency. That is to say, it is strong because
also do not forget that in this crisis Mexico
is playing an important role because it has been
the landing pad of the return of the investments
that come of this conflict precisely that exists
between the North American and the Eastern market,
that is, the arrival of direct foreign investment
as well and the need, that is why it is important
to take advantage of the crises also to remember
the need of the industrialization policy, that
is, the Mexican plan is to strengthen the internal
market because you know very well that a strengthened
internal market, these distributed development
poles throughout the country, developing industry
and not only consuming the world market, we are
in the construction of another way also to support
these teluric movements so complicated of the
world market. There is shielding for the Mexican
consumer, where I think they are much more exposed
is in the United States, because there, yes,
the impact that is transferred to the consumer,
in the case of gasoline and diesel, is immediate,
and consumers are very sensitive. That has moved
results. Because as they mostly move in individual
vehicles, then they have to assume those costs,
move at long distances. And it seems to me that
it is also part of Iran's strategy. They are
suffering an impact for this intervention. They
return it, complicating, let's say, the economic
environment, with strategies also there in asymmetric
terms, because I was reading that... Each of
these drones that Iran can launch costs about
$20 ,000 in production, and each of the missiles
that countries use to be able to stop these drones
costs at least $2 million. That is, they spend
100 times more on stopping the attacks. So it
is also a strategy to wear out other nations,
particularly the United States. But going back
to the issue of the short -term and the management
of variables to maintain the balance of public
finances in our country, we have to point out
that there is a recall when you have to apply
the formula of the IEPS. So the government can
stop capturing that that could be compensated.
If we manage to capitalize this moment of instability,
Mexico begins to produce more, which cannot be
produced in other countries. And then, in the
formula of fiscal sustainability, we begin to
have more income by ISR, and then we manage to
compensate it. Here the good news is that we
do not have deaths in the closet. que podemos
hacer este manejo de variables, pero sin duda
si hubiéramos llegado en otras condiciones ahora
estaríamos realmente preocupados. Dios nos libre.
in its numbers, in the numbers of the Commission,
without the need for Hacienda to make an additional
movement. And the part of controlling the IEPS
and not affecting the citizens also has a direct
benefit on inflation, of course, and on the internal
market. Because in the end, let's say you keep
the consumption stable at a certain level and
you don't affect the people as a whole. So, let's
say it's a benefit at the expense of not perceiving
an important part of IEPS. That year in particular,
the balance for that account was negative. The
effect that I could mention here is that when
there is instability, well, we have announced
that there is capacity to absorb inflation. reconstruction
of restructuring of the economy but what if it
is that it changes the expectations in the medium
and long term and can delay the decrease in the
interest rate and we know that the higher the
interest rate because then it is braking the
investment and what we need right now is precisely
in seven points But it came to be at 11. It came
to be at 11 .50. Or even more, right? It's correct.
It was crazy. But we also have the pending, in
addition to the reference rate, that there is
also a capacity to transfer, since the commercial
bank also manages to reach the PYMES. By the
way, the bankers are going to have to play as
they were in the context of the pandemic, which
was declared the pandemic five years ago. They
are going to have to play this context again.
And again they are going to have to play. El
gran desafío, que no lo han tomado del todo,
de dar créditos en un momento clave. Yo creo
que solo si se alarga. Si esto es de más de un
mes, ya tendrían, probablemente vendrían ese
tipo de acciones. Porque la promesa de Estados
Unidos es semanas, ¿no? Máximo cinco semanas.
O sea, no estoy seguro de que estemos en ese
momento, pero hablando de etapas, de corto, mediano
y largo plazo. There is still room, I would say,
for this to be controlled. As long as, I also
commented with Paul before entering. In makeup.
In makeup. Before... Well, people must know that
we are wearing makeup. It's necessary sometimes.
But before... But only if Russia doesn't... From
my point of view, the dispute does not enter.
Why Russia in particular? Because when Russia
and Ukraine had, well, it still maintains the
armed conflict of these two countries, who joined,
let's say, on the side of Russia was Iran and
North Korea. Their allies at that time were Iran,
North Korea. So I don't know how much it suits
Russia as a very important military power to
say, well, well. that the United States does
what it wants in Venezuela, in Cuba, in Greenland,
in Iran, because it is getting much closer, it
is taking bigger steps and it is getting closer
to Russian territory. Yes, well, there is also
a very clear strategy that is then forgotten,
which has to do with the fact that there is also
a document of a strategic understanding between
Russia and China, that is, they are already making
the interpretation, they start from the interpretation
that the United States is simply on the trajectory
that it cannot avoid, that is, to do technology
and to have the determination that he had at
the time, not anymore. So Russia and China are
also waiting. I think they should also be there.
Well, let's remember that Iran is part of the
BRICS already and that also implies that, as
Hamlet well pointed out, there is also a matter
of resistance in this whole issue and resistance
is achieved with productive capacity and access
to resources. Let's not forget that the year
last year, the first railway route was inaugurated
directly between Iran and China, which is like
a kind of direct support because, in some way
or another, the declarations by Xi Jinping have
also been very clear in the sense that they are
saying we support Iran and that I think that
the reading from that side of the planet has
to do with the fact that it is already inevitable
the moment of The New York Times has said, quoting
official sources, that Mr. Trump has exaggerated
the immediacy of any threat that Iran represents
for the United States and for the world. He has
exaggerated. And I think the key is that this
does not scale. What worries me is that this
offensive by the United States of Israel against
Iran has crossed a new threshold because it has
attacked cities, airports, energy infrastructure
that has been considered strategic. We see this
issue of Hormuz, that there is no other way that
could replace the maritime mobility it represents.
Y creo que estamos analizando lo estructural,
pero me sigue preocupando que esto pudiera escalar,
que no sean cuatro ni cinco semanas. Y hemos
estado escuchando a los analistas que opinan
que Trump se equivocó. Que fue una equivocación.
Bueno, vamos a cambiar de tema. Vamos a hablar
de los resultados de Pemex. Les agradecemos estar
en el martes de Economía y Política. Coméntenos
en redes sociales. Paul, siempre es dichoso de
escucharlos y leerlos. Gracias. Salud. Sigue
el contenido de Canal 11 y Canal 22. Pemex reporta
en 2025 el menor nivel de deuda en más de una
década, liquidez a su cadena de valor, mayor
dinamismo en refinación y repunte de ventas de
combustible. Pemex registered an increase of
7 % in the sales of its main fuels. Pemex successfully
executed the comprehensive training and financing
strategy, designed in coordination with the Secretary
of Finance and Public Credit and the Secretary
of Energy. Fitch Rating raised Pemex's credit
rating to BP +, three steps, while Moody's improved
it to B1, two steps, both with a stable perspective.
you Gracias por continuar en la barra de análisis
de los medios públicos. Ahora nos toca cambiar
de tema. Hablaremos sobre el reporte de resultados
de Pemex. Sin duda hay una conexión íntima con
la situación en Medio Oriente y lo que significa
esto para el país. Pemex, como bien sabemos,
es una de las empresas históricas más grandes
de nuestro país y que además han dotado durante
muchos años de recursos para el desarrollo de
la nación. Durante el periodo neoliberal estuvo
uh there are many elements that we have to add
to the analysis to establish what is the route
to strengthen energy sovereignty. These are good
news for Pemex and for the country. It is in
this process of stabilization. The truth is that
at the end of the neoliberal period, they had
left our most important historical company. in
the bones, practically. They had no conditions
to operate, they had fragmented it, they had
divided it into subsidiaries, in such a way that
it could not be coordinated. It had that legal
prohibition, they could not talk between the
directors of the different subsidiaries, there
was no single command, which is absolutely illogical
in an environment like the current one. Agility
is required in decision -making, unity is required.
And we are seeing that this constitutional reform,
promoted by President López Obrador, approved
in both chambers of Congress and local legislatures,
and the secondary reforms in energy matters,
allow Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission
itself to resurface with that strength. So, congratulations
to the entire Pemex team for this achievement.
May many more come. And I would like to add that
Petróleos Mexicanos is one of those companies,
not only emblematic for a country like Mexico,
where we need it in many regions. It is the engine
of the economy. And there is a oil company of
the characteristics of Pemex, because it generates
jobs, generates activity, generates social benefit.
That must not be forgotten, because it is not
only a company with which we seek to earn money
or have energy sovereignty. Let me tell you that
in the field of operations, Pemex's production
stabilized. And they use this term in the Mexican
oil press bulletin. Stabilizing is the word.
who was in intensive care, who goes to intermediate
care, who is receiving the appropriate care,
is receiving nutrients, it is money that the
government transfers to him, the Secretariat
of Hacienda. Se le ha respaldado porque se consideraba
una empresa que tenía bonos basura. Pensemos
que no es que la empresa estuviera ya en el lugar
de los desechos, sino que los empresarios y los
inversionistas decían, pues es una empresa que
puede dejar de pagar. Ahora tiene el respaldo
del gobierno. Se estabilizó en 1 ,648 ,000 barriles
diarios. El Sistema Nacional de Refinación ya...
processes 1 ,136 ,000 barrels of crude oil daily,
which is an increase of 44 .4 % in comparison
with the same quarter. And a scheme of mixed
investments begins. There appears the name of
Carlos Slim, that Carlos Slim finds in natural
gas that we are importing a business that is
going to be very profitable. So there is money
on the part of the private sector. We have a
reduction in the historical debt. The Pemex debt
has reduced by 13 % in 2024 and 19 % in comparison
with 2018. And I would like to close the commentary
by saying that the war or the declaration of
war or the confrontation represents an opportunity
for Pemex. When Ukraine and Russia entered into
confrontation, We had the pressure from the United
States that we had to buy its diesel. When the
United States gets distracted and sends diesel
to Europe, Mexico could start consuming its own
diesel, its own fertilizers, and it will also
consume its gasoline. We have a chance, and Pemex
I think will capitalize on it. Pues ojalá que
sí. Parece frase muy trillada históricamente,
pero siempre decimos los mexicanos que si le
va bien a Pemex, le va bien a México. De ese
tamaño es la importancia que tiene esta empresa
para las finanzas mexicanas, para el pueblo de
México, para el gasto, para que con eso podamos
tener infraestructura, podamos tener hospitales,
podamos tener desarrollo. Entonces hay que cuidar
a Pemex, hay que cuidar a la empresa. Now that
you say that they left it in intensive care and
they are stabilizing it, I don't know if they
left it in intensive care to the observer or
before, but how good that it is in this process
of stabilization. And these interesting data
that you mention, that I listened to you with
a lot of attention, of 1 ,648 ,000 daily barrels,
how good. But in 1980, before all of us who are
at this table were born, and probably those who
see us, 1 ,936 ,000 were produced. So we are
not even yet, notice the capital problem that
there is, we are not even at the levels of 1980,
with everything and that goes, well, seven years
of transformation of public life and of the state
-owned company. There are some reasons that this
report that we are analyzing today says. because
of which there are these numbers, this decline,
let's say, compared to the historical one. And
it talks about natural declines of the fields,
the problem and the complexity that the perforation
has had, the lack also, it says, or the decay
of the installation and the infrastructure that
it has had. And, well, all these reasons, I think,
we can summarize them in, well, in the end, lack
of investment. That is, there is not enough capital
today for the investment that is required in
infrastructure to get to where the company can
get. And when one tries to take care of a company,
or the income, or that it goes better, you have
to check where the expenses are going, where
we can cut those expenses or those losses that
the company is having. And this report has a
very interesting data. that caught my attention.
Just one? Because in 2019, it's going to catch
your attention too, pay attention. In 2019, they
told us that the huachicol was over. Not the
fiscal huachicol, that's more modern now. Do
you remember that in 2019 the Observer said,
the huachicol is over? And then they left us
without gasoline for about three weeks. You will
remember the lines in the gas stations. But it
was because the huachicol was over and then they
sent Ebrard to buy pipes. Do you remember that
moment? So I said, how good, the huachicol is
over since 2019. And this same report that we
are now analyzing says that the fuel subtraction,
that is, huachicol. It grew from 2025, in comparison
to 2024, by 14%. So there's a serious problem
there that needs to be addressed. In 2024 it
was at 20 ,000 million and a fraction, and now
it's at 23 ,000 million. So we have a huachicol
problem, chances are it didn't end in 2019, that
we do have to fight. It's a deficit. Forget about
the fiscal huachicol of 500 ,000 million, that's
another story. But only the huachicol, let's
call it traditional, this fuel subtraction, is
hitting the company a lot. What could we do with
those 23 billion additional pesos if we had finished
with the huachicol? So, these are areas of important
opportunity that must be taken into account to
have a totally strengthened company and capacity
to invest in infrastructure. Two notes before
moving on to another comment. So that you can
pay attention. Please. I always pay attention
to you. You only read the isolated data, you
didn't read the whole report. I always pay a
lot of attention to you. And I read the reports
to come here to talk to you. But you can't lie
to anyone. And there he explains in those public
reports, precisely that the strategy to detect
the leaks, the clandestine takes, these crimes
against the infrastructure. They have grown precisely
because now they are reported and not as before.
Before they were not reported and that is why
the number of... But it does not grow, look,
there it is very important. The Olympic Games
are over. The number of detections and denunciations
that are made about the detectives, so it is
very different. Another very important issue.
You talked about 1980. Subtraction of fuel. And
not of... Yes, that's why I already explained
the part of the huachicol. Now, there is a natural
geological wear in any... Yacimiento. Yacimiento
de hidrocarburos. Felipe Calderón enjoyed an
impressive richness that ended... Excedents of
oil. And Fox, too. Fox, the government... That
reached 150... El Pan Azul. 150 dollars. They
threw a significant amount of money. And they
also indebted Pemex in a brutal way. A situation
that has just been reversed in these years. So,
on the part of the Huachicón, it's a strategy
of detection of... And they didn't build anything
in 25 years of neoliberalism. We're going to
put here important images so that we can analyze
them. Here's just the geological waste. y cómo
ha caído justo los campos maduros. ¿Sí viste
eso en la presentación? Claro, y también he visto
cómo otros países mejoran su producción. Pues
es que estamos mejorando la producción. No, te
estoy hablando de que estamos en niveles de 1980.
¿Nos pueden poner la otra gráfica, por favor?
Estabilización, dijo la economista. La que les
mandé primero. Que venía de terapia intensiva.
Para que podamos ver. Mira nada más. Se recupera
la capacidad de refinación. Para que un país...
In reality, it has performance. A country that
is an oil producer, that extracts oil, can have
economic performance from that economic process.
It implies that it can transform it into gasoline.
Here we are seeing in this graph how we reverse
just the fall in refining. Why? Because the refinery
Olmeca was made, because Deer Park was bought,
and above all because it was invested, which
is what you were asking, in the national refining
system. I was asking? Well, you said that the
investment was necessary. Why not? We are clearly
improving the numbers. We are clearly improving
the numbers. In 1980, where 1 ,936 ,000 barrels
were produced daily, due to geological waste,
because it was not invested at the time of discovery.
I also read it in reports. It goes away with
the investments. We would have to expand the
perspective there, because we have to remember
that in Mexico... There was no investment because
they took out PMX. No, Mexico... In time of Salinas
and in time of Ford. Salinas, Fox, Calderón,
Peña. One at a time because then the audience
gets upset. No, I just want to remember that
between 2006 and 2009, during the government
of Felipe Calderón, the numbers of daily oil
production Se ajustaron por contenido de agua,
Paul. Estaban maquilladas. Entonces, esto fue
una investigación que se hizo en una revista
que se llama Fortuna. El Inegi reportó un ajuste
en las cifras de producción cuando el número
de barriles diarios pasó de 3 .3 millones de
barriles a 2 .6 millones de barriles para el
cierre de 2009. No voy a comparar ya 25 años
o 30. El año pasado, contra este, hubo un 7 %
de reducción. In one year. Of what? Do you like
it? Yes, because they were adjusting projects.
And how did Levita grow? And how did the profits
grow? There is a criticism. There is a neoliberal
criticism. How did the profits grow? Compare
what you want. There is a historical explanation.
Remember that Mexico comes from a first industrialization
process since the 30s. precisamente la fundación
de todo este proceso. El milagro mexicano, de
1939 a 1970, hubo un crecimiento promedio del
país de 6 .6%. Es un país que está expandiendo
sus capacidades industriales, que está fortaleciendo
todo esto, y que precisamente el problema del
neoliberalismo fue que puso freno a ese modelo.
Claro que habíamos llegado a otras capacidades
industriales. ¿Pero por qué tenemos menos que
el año pasado? Estamos en el proceso de reindustrialización.
No, pues estamos en un proceso... It's a process.
pero mal, mal, mal calificado. Ya la rankearon
bien. Regresamos a los mercados financieros internacionales.
Aquí lo dijimos, ¿no? Varias veces. A los contratos
con privados también. Que bueno, en el reporte
vienen siete grandes contratos con privados que
fueron satanizados. Claudio nos estaba mencionando.
Pero fueron satanizados. Pero ya se re -direccionaron.
Porque la reforma del Peña. No, no, no. Eran
satanizados. Y que como que el privado va a entrar.
No, no, no. Era que se llamaran la mayor parte
de la sociedad. The problem was that they kept
most of it and didn't leave much to Pemex. Now
the conditions are more equitable. The problem
is that they indebted Pemex with projects that
they didn't realize, that they didn't conclude,
that they sold later, and that there was a black
market of invoices that indebted the oil company
and left it in therapy. Intensive. Intensive.
Intensive. Intensive. Sí, pero la base de comparación
cambia. Por eso el INEGI tuvo que ajustar las
cifras que tú estás analizando con un espectro
que debe ponderarse, Paul. Los gobiernos del
PAN decían que iban a construir refinerías y
nada más compraban terrenos. Y no hacían nada
más que una barra. No, ese es el problema. Con
todos los excedentes que hubo y no invirtieron
un centavo. Sí, no, es un proceso estructural
una vez más. Obviamente que aquí And what it
implies and what is important to remember this
night is that given the international conditions,
energy sovereignty is a number one essential
for what we are seeing. In addition, because
this has important consequences also for the
possibility of food sovereignty. I mean particularly
to the production of fertilizers, to production
in general, that is, to have petrochemical, to
expand and transform the energy matrix also.
que es un plan a mediano y largo plazo. Pero
bueno, en fin, hay una serie de elementos que
hay que seguir tomando nota. Pues ha sido un
gusto haber estado esta noche dialogando. Muchísimas
gracias a todas y todos los que nos escuchan
también en casa. Esto es Macio Zare. Esta fue
la Mesa de Economía y Política. Y, por supuesto,
déjenos sus comentarios. Estaremos gustosos de
leerlos. Muy buenas noches. Esto fue una producción
de Canal 11 y Canal 29.