WEBVTT 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.680 This is a production of Channel 11 and Channel 00:00:03.680 --> 00:00:46.509 22. The United States military began major combat 00:00:46.509 --> 00:00:52.030 operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend 00:00:52.030 --> 00:00:55.729 the American people by eliminating imminent threats 00:00:55.729 --> 00:01:00.289 from the Iranian regime. CENTCOM shared the news 00:01:00.289 --> 00:01:03.689 that three US military service members have been 00:01:03.689 --> 00:01:07.689 killed in action. As one nation, we grieve for 00:01:07.689 --> 00:01:10.840 the... true American patriots who have made the 00:01:10.840 --> 00:01:15.359 ultimate sacrifice for our nation. Even as we 00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:18.200 continue the righteous mission, the United States 00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:21.659 and its partners have launched Operation Epic 00:01:21.659 --> 00:01:25.260 Fury, one of the largest, most complex, most 00:01:25.260 --> 00:01:29.680 overwhelming military offensives the world has 00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:33.260 ever seen. Nobody's seen anything like it. We 00:01:33.260 --> 00:01:36.819 have hit hundreds of targets in Iran, including 00:01:37.579 --> 00:01:40.920 Revolutionary Guard facilities, Iranian air defense 00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:44.359 systems. Just now, it was announced that we knocked 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:49.280 out nine ships plus their naval building. All 00:01:49.280 --> 00:01:53.980 in a matter of literally minutes. Iran's formerly 00:01:53.980 --> 00:02:00.140 supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead. 00:02:00.359 --> 00:02:03.900 This wretched and vile man had the blood of hundreds 00:02:03.900 --> 00:02:08.319 and even thousands. of Americans on his hands. 00:02:31.710 --> 00:02:36.009 but only through a reasonable, authentic and 00:02:36.009 --> 00:02:39.590 responsible dialogue. The UN stopped doing its 00:02:39.590 --> 00:02:51.810 job. Countries with more military force are being 00:02:51.810 --> 00:02:56.050 imposed. And that can't be. After the Second 00:02:56.050 --> 00:03:00.620 World War, the objective was guarantee a space 00:03:00.620 --> 00:03:03.840 where each nation had the same representation. 00:03:12.879 --> 00:03:14.740 Hello, good evening. Thank you for being with 00:03:14.740 --> 00:03:17.659 us in Maciozare. This is a co -production of 00:03:17.659 --> 00:03:20.360 Channel 11 and Channel 22. It is themed according 00:03:20.360 --> 00:03:22.740 to the day of the week. Today is Tuesday and 00:03:22.740 --> 00:03:25.240 it is the turn of economy and politics. My name 00:03:25.240 --> 00:03:28.020 is Tonatiuh Martínez, economist. Y antes de empezar, 00:03:28.080 --> 00:03:30.479 le doy la bienvenida a mis compañeros, a mi compañera, 00:03:30.500 --> 00:03:33.280 el doctor Oscar Rojas, economista también. ¿Qué 00:03:33.280 --> 00:03:36.000 tal? Buenas noches. Hamlet Almaguer, maestro 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:38.000 en Derecho Procesal Constitucional. Buenas noches. 00:03:38.819 --> 00:03:41.539 Claudia Villegas, maestra en Periodismo y especialista 00:03:41.539 --> 00:03:43.699 en Indicadores Macroeconómicos. Buenas noches, 00:03:43.699 --> 00:03:46.080 buenas noches a todos. Y Paul Hospital, maestro 00:03:46.080 --> 00:03:48.060 en Gobierno y Políticas Públicas. Hola, buenas 00:03:48.060 --> 00:03:49.969 noches a todos. Well, today we will talk about 00:03:49.969 --> 00:03:52.169 two issues, destabilization in the Middle East 00:03:52.169 --> 00:03:54.889 and the report of results of the Mexican oil 00:03:54.889 --> 00:03:58.169 company Pemex. We are going to start with destabilization 00:03:58.169 --> 00:04:01.270 in the Middle East. And well, some initial data. 00:04:01.710 --> 00:04:03.530 The United States and Israel, on February 28 00:04:03.530 --> 00:04:06.909 of this year, last Saturday, launched aerial 00:04:06.909 --> 00:04:10.409 attacks on Iran. The objective was the residence 00:04:10.409 --> 00:04:13.849 of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. 00:04:14.569 --> 00:04:18.279 Well, they achieved their objective. This person, 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:21.839 who was the head of state in Iran, dies in the 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:25.139 attacks. And they also launched attacks on different 00:04:25.139 --> 00:04:28.459 objectives. Very unfortunate, and I think we 00:04:28.459 --> 00:04:32.699 have to condemn precisely the massacre on a primary 00:04:32.699 --> 00:04:34.680 school, where at least there is the report of 00:04:34.680 --> 00:04:39.220 85 Iranian girls dead. Regrettable and catastrophic. 00:04:39.860 --> 00:04:43.050 A hospital in Tehran was also attacked. and another 00:04:43.050 --> 00:04:46.410 six high commandos died, including the Iranian 00:04:46.410 --> 00:04:53.310 Minister of Defense. There are immediate consequences 00:04:53.310 --> 00:04:57.129 and a response from Iran. The first is the closure 00:04:57.129 --> 00:05:01.769 of the Ormuz Strait. This is a strategic geographical 00:05:01.769 --> 00:05:06.329 enclave for the world. Around one in five barrels 00:05:06.329 --> 00:05:10.399 are consumed worldwide. And this has consequences 00:05:10.399 --> 00:05:13.519 in three periods, short, medium and long term. 00:05:13.759 --> 00:05:15.699 In the short term, we talk about between four 00:05:15.699 --> 00:05:17.600 and five weeks. The president of the United States 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:19.660 said that he expects to finish the operation 00:05:19.660 --> 00:05:22.300 in this time. And let's say that if this does 00:05:22.300 --> 00:05:25.920 not end in this term, we could already see strong 00:05:25.920 --> 00:05:29.079 consequences on the economy and probably on the 00:05:29.079 --> 00:05:31.879 policy even of the United States. The medium 00:05:31.879 --> 00:05:34.600 term would be one to four months. And there we 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:37.779 are talking about, above all, the increase in 00:05:37.779 --> 00:05:40.759 energy inflation. And that has obvious consequences 00:05:40.759 --> 00:05:44.240 that we already know from the war between Ukraine 00:05:44.240 --> 00:05:48.360 and Russia. It unleashed inflation. mundial en 00:05:48.360 --> 00:05:51.579 el 22 ese es algo que puede pasar sobre todo 00:05:51.579 --> 00:05:53.560 porque estamos ya viendo el incremento en los 00:05:53.560 --> 00:05:57.040 precios del petróleo y del gas cae un poco el 00:05:57.040 --> 00:06:00.240 oro cae la plata cae el bitcoin algunos mercados 00:06:00.240 --> 00:06:02.819 hoy ya presentaban disminuciones disminuciones 00:06:02.819 --> 00:06:07.180 interesantes el nikkei el dac en fin esto podría 00:06:07.180 --> 00:06:08.819 tener consecuencias porque la lectura de los 00:06:08.819 --> 00:06:31.779 mercados puede ser que Thank you very much. I 00:06:31.779 --> 00:06:35.699 join the condemnation of the barbarity. de la 00:06:35.699 --> 00:06:39.240 guerra. Yo creo que no es un detalle menor todo 00:06:39.240 --> 00:06:41.639 lo que estamos observando. Es una crisis ya de 00:06:41.639 --> 00:06:43.920 deshumanización fuerte. Es decir, estamos hablando 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:46.860 de que es una guerra que no está ni siquiera 00:06:46.860 --> 00:06:50.339 generando en el horizonte que se estuvieran alcanzando 00:06:50.339 --> 00:06:53.279 realmente los objetivos. ¿Cuáles son los objetivos? 00:06:53.379 --> 00:06:56.519 Abrir espacio para tener un control de Medio 00:06:56.519 --> 00:06:59.839 Oriente estratégico de cara, por supuesto, a 00:06:59.839 --> 00:07:01.959 la crisis de los Estados Unidos, pero sobre todo 00:07:01.959 --> 00:07:04.779 para detener o contener lo que está sucediendo 00:07:04.779 --> 00:07:08.939 in Eurasia, which is a different economic dynamic 00:07:08.939 --> 00:07:12.959 with other capacities, other social formations. 00:07:12.959 --> 00:07:15.439 And this is not liking the United States. The 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:17.959 United States is very weakened in its global 00:07:17.959 --> 00:07:22.519 hegemony. And in that sense, here it seems to 00:07:22.519 --> 00:07:25.279 me that the battle of the narrative is also being 00:07:25.279 --> 00:07:28.540 lost, even within the United States. So the internal 00:07:28.540 --> 00:07:31.139 crisis is being supported. The international 00:07:31.139 --> 00:07:32.899 crisis is also being supported, which is not 00:07:32.899 --> 00:07:36.180 good to be playing with fire and obviously this 00:07:36.180 --> 00:07:40.480 can have a very important escalation, not only 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:43.579 in terms of the consequences that may be on the 00:07:43.579 --> 00:07:46.459 markets, but above all the escalation, that is, 00:07:46.560 --> 00:07:48.939 the convocation that the different countries 00:07:48.939 --> 00:07:51.259 that have been stagnant, I am particularly referring 00:07:51.259 --> 00:07:55.199 to the G7 in general, are opting for war to try 00:07:55.199 --> 00:07:57.699 to thwart the stagnation of their economies. 00:07:57.879 --> 00:08:00.579 So I think we can't allow that, that is, there 00:08:00.579 --> 00:08:02.620 has to be a clear geopolitical announcement. 00:08:03.209 --> 00:08:06.269 de la búsqueda de la paz, pero no en el sentido 00:08:06.269 --> 00:08:09.529 diplomático. Ya sabemos también que la ONU ha 00:08:09.529 --> 00:08:12.790 tenido sus momentos ya críticos, ya ha sido totalmente 00:08:12.790 --> 00:08:15.810 rebasada esta institución histórica, ya no ha 00:08:15.810 --> 00:08:19.490 podido detener esto o la masacre del genocidio 00:08:19.490 --> 00:08:21.990 en Palestina. Y pues yo creo que tenemos que 00:08:21.990 --> 00:08:23.870 empezar a hacer otra movilización política a 00:08:23.870 --> 00:08:27.490 escala internacional, convocando de profundidad 00:08:27.490 --> 00:08:31.209 a un movimiento internacional por la paz. Sí 00:08:31.209 --> 00:08:34.629 es hora de un nuevo... a model for international 00:08:34.629 --> 00:08:39.350 public law, because these principles, let's say, 00:08:39.350 --> 00:08:43.830 begin with the equality between states on the 00:08:43.830 --> 00:08:49.789 international level, with the non -use of force, 00:08:50.070 --> 00:08:54.049 let's say, to assume or achieve the objectives 00:08:54.049 --> 00:08:58.129 that each entity has. Well, it is already evident 00:08:58.129 --> 00:09:01.570 that there was not even a proposal before the 00:09:01.570 --> 00:09:05.789 General Assembly or before the Security Council 00:09:05.789 --> 00:09:09.330 itself, which in itself presupposes a point of 00:09:09.330 --> 00:09:12.370 inequality, because it is a club of powerful 00:09:12.370 --> 00:09:16.450 countries, let's say, in economic or military 00:09:16.450 --> 00:09:18.570 matters, which have the right to veto, which 00:09:18.570 --> 00:09:22.919 can raise issues of another... But by not even 00:09:22.919 --> 00:09:25.960 going through that stage, it already speaks to 00:09:25.960 --> 00:09:29.279 us of a total contempt for international instances 00:09:29.279 --> 00:09:34.200 and the inability to react. That is why President 00:09:34.200 --> 00:09:37.279 Sheinbaum synthesized it very well in the morning 00:09:37.279 --> 00:09:41.460 conference. And they enter here, let's say, a 00:09:41.460 --> 00:09:44.970 question that catches my attention. For many 00:09:44.970 --> 00:09:48.769 specialists, including Dr. Oscar, this constitutes 00:09:48.769 --> 00:09:52.090 a war, only that there has not been a formal 00:09:52.090 --> 00:09:58.009 declaration by the US Congress. And this is developed, 00:09:58.190 --> 00:10:01.950 founded on a sentence that the Supreme Court 00:10:01.950 --> 00:10:05.730 of the United States gave in the early years 00:10:05.730 --> 00:10:09.549 of the 19th century. where they determine that 00:10:09.549 --> 00:10:12.690 at an internal level there is a distribution 00:10:12.690 --> 00:10:15.090 of competences between the State and the Federation, 00:10:15.370 --> 00:10:18.830 but that at an international level all the competences 00:10:18.830 --> 00:10:22.789 are of the President of the Republic. and they 00:10:22.789 --> 00:10:27.250 allow him to act under very broad margins. So 00:10:27.250 --> 00:10:29.250 at the international level, yes, we consider 00:10:29.250 --> 00:10:33.149 it as evident acts of war, but if you ask in 00:10:33.149 --> 00:10:35.610 the United States, because he did not pass through 00:10:35.610 --> 00:10:40.250 the Congress, formally he did not. Iran is a 00:10:40.250 --> 00:10:43.789 country with 90 million inhabitants, the 24th 00:10:43.789 --> 00:10:46.029 largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing 00:10:46.029 --> 00:10:49.929 power, the 14th largest in terms of military 00:10:49.929 --> 00:10:54.110 strength, so it is not a minor conflict. Well, 00:10:54.330 --> 00:10:58.529 recovering this issue of short and medium -term 00:10:58.529 --> 00:11:04.830 economic and financial impacts, Me gustaría citar 00:11:04.830 --> 00:11:08.950 lo que ha sucedido hoy y que pareciera que Donald 00:11:08.950 --> 00:11:12.809 Trump se estuvo preparando durante meses con 00:11:12.809 --> 00:11:17.450 un poco de dinero, de dólares o mucho en las 00:11:17.450 --> 00:11:21.029 arcas de Estados Unidos. Platicábamos de cómo 00:11:21.029 --> 00:11:25.389 el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos no debe olvidarse. 00:11:25.529 --> 00:11:30.429 Estados Unidos sigue muy presionado en sus finanzas 00:11:30.429 --> 00:11:35.480 públicas. Y ha dado la orden a Scott Besant de 00:11:35.480 --> 00:11:38.399 que frente a la negativa de España de permitir 00:11:38.399 --> 00:11:43.179 el acceso a bases militares en territorio español, 00:11:43.480 --> 00:11:47.159 comience una nueva escalada, una nueva ofensiva 00:11:47.159 --> 00:11:52.299 comercial contra España. Ha platicado ya también 00:11:52.299 --> 00:11:56.870 con el canciller Friedrich Merz. of the party 00:11:56.870 --> 00:11:59.610 of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, 00:11:59.830 --> 00:12:03.009 who is the Prime Minister, the German Chancellor, 00:12:03.049 --> 00:12:07.629 about the consequences. And the German Chancellor 00:12:07.629 --> 00:12:10.809 said, I'm not going to give lessons to my partners. 00:12:11.269 --> 00:12:15.269 This leads me to think that in the face of the 00:12:15.269 --> 00:12:18.230 closure of Ormuz, and we have from the Strait 00:12:18.230 --> 00:12:23.600 of Ormuz, We have a map there so that our audience 00:12:23.600 --> 00:12:29.340 can locate how this stretch of no more than 30, 00:12:29.500 --> 00:12:35.519 40 kilometers is marking with great concern what 00:12:35.519 --> 00:12:39.620 can be considered a systemic rupture. Here the 00:12:39.620 --> 00:12:41.679 big question is if we are going to have a systemic 00:12:41.679 --> 00:12:45.700 risk. The Gulf countries will have to decide 00:12:45.700 --> 00:12:52.889 if they join a war. The former Foreign Minister 00:12:52.889 --> 00:12:56.110 of the United Arab Emirates also said on his 00:12:56.110 --> 00:12:59.210 Twitter account, your war is not with your neighbors. 00:12:59.610 --> 00:13:02.970 They wrote the Gulf countries and they sought 00:13:02.970 --> 00:13:06.289 in some way to have investments in arms with 00:13:06.289 --> 00:13:09.450 the United States and get along with Iran. They 00:13:09.450 --> 00:13:12.789 knew that this moment was coming and today they 00:13:12.789 --> 00:13:16.220 have to make the decision. The price of oil was 00:13:16.220 --> 00:13:20.360 very pressured, the WTI. And he said that the 00:13:20.360 --> 00:13:22.620 United States was preparing Trump with a little 00:13:22.620 --> 00:13:25.500 money in their pockets because he gave orders 00:13:25.500 --> 00:13:30.200 to give subsidies to shipping companies to guarantee 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:34.340 that oil would continue to pass, that oil would 00:13:34.340 --> 00:13:37.200 arrive. That's what I have to say for now, but 00:13:37.200 --> 00:13:40.620 the repercussions are many. No, well, economic, 00:13:41.960 --> 00:13:46.240 social repercussions. And above all, one thinks, 00:13:46.360 --> 00:13:49.860 where are we going and how far will it go? I 00:13:49.860 --> 00:13:51.919 saw you last Tuesday, that I couldn't be with 00:13:51.919 --> 00:13:55.139 you, but Tonatiuh was talking about, it's that 00:13:55.139 --> 00:13:58.700 now he's going for Iran. Trump predicted it and 00:13:58.700 --> 00:14:02.539 it happened. And then now, before entering, I 00:14:02.539 --> 00:14:05.580 said, well, and what's next? And sometimes we 00:14:05.580 --> 00:14:09.399 could build scenarios that seemed unimaginable. 00:14:10.250 --> 00:14:14.169 Pero cuando hacemos un pequeño ejercicio de retrospectiva, 00:14:14.210 --> 00:14:17.370 Trump lleva 13 meses de gobierno. Lleva un año, 00:14:17.429 --> 00:14:19.830 ¿eh? Nada más. Un año. Yo sé que parecen 20. 00:14:20.450 --> 00:14:24.669 Pero lleva un año de cuatro. Y solamente hay 00:14:24.669 --> 00:14:27.809 que revisar lo que ha sucedido. Y las cuestiones 00:14:27.809 --> 00:14:31.669 que todos hubiéramos apostado que no iban a suceder. 00:14:31.669 --> 00:14:35.799 Que a pesar de esta... culture of Yankee imperialism, 00:14:35.799 --> 00:14:39.700 of extending, of dominating through the economic 00:14:39.700 --> 00:14:42.480 or military force to others, well, he was not 00:14:42.480 --> 00:14:45.100 going to dare to take certain steps. Well, he 00:14:45.100 --> 00:14:48.480 has done them all. So it does become a matter 00:14:48.480 --> 00:14:52.539 of concern to see a president who presumes this 00:14:52.539 --> 00:14:58.139 military strategy, which is a war. What a good 00:14:58.139 --> 00:15:00.720 explanation does Hamlet give? But it is at the 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:03.320 end of the day a document that differentiates 00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:06.379 it. whether it's a war or not, but let's see, 00:15:06.460 --> 00:15:09.059 the images that were circulating, that continue 00:15:09.059 --> 00:15:13.600 to circulate, of the bombings, of the planes, 00:15:13.940 --> 00:15:17.899 but a good part of its voters, and the president 00:15:17.899 --> 00:15:21.480 himself, sees it with jubilation, as a sign of 00:15:21.480 --> 00:15:23.700 the strength they have against the entire world. 00:15:24.019 --> 00:15:26.320 We already see who we see with great concern, 00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:30.299 of this new reality where there is no international 00:15:30.299 --> 00:15:33.460 law. That is the reality today, in the world. 00:15:33.759 --> 00:15:37.000 Today there is no international organization 00:15:37.000 --> 00:15:40.059 that can mediate. Today what exists is the use 00:15:40.059 --> 00:15:43.179 of force. And today what it is demonstrating 00:15:43.179 --> 00:15:47.200 is that the strongest, militarily, is the one 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:49.279 who is going to make decisions unilaterally, 00:15:49.279 --> 00:15:53.220 even above its own normativity, with this safety 00:15:53.220 --> 00:15:56.500 of the Congress. Because then there will be those 00:15:56.500 --> 00:15:59.440 who bet that in November, which are the elections 00:15:59.440 --> 00:16:02.440 of the Congress of the United States, there will 00:16:02.440 --> 00:16:04.600 be a stop to Donald Trump. Because they are going 00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:06.279 to win the Democrats according to the polls. 00:16:07.120 --> 00:16:08.899 Well, he has not asked for permission from the 00:16:08.899 --> 00:16:13.100 Congress at all. Correct. So, rather, it worries 00:16:13.100 --> 00:16:16.539 me that winning the Democrats, we have a Trump 00:16:16.539 --> 00:16:21.870 president who radicalizes even more. Using as 00:16:21.870 --> 00:16:25.110 a pretext to a congress that wants to put a stop 00:16:25.110 --> 00:16:31.110 to it, to advance much more fervently, as it 00:16:31.110 --> 00:16:34.389 has done in recent months. So, yes, it is to 00:16:34.389 --> 00:16:40.250 worry. Iran is not far away. Venezuela is not 00:16:40.250 --> 00:16:42.590 far away. The intervention in Cuba is not far 00:16:42.590 --> 00:16:46.659 away. Greenland let it rest for a few days. But 00:16:46.659 --> 00:16:50.379 this thought and how it has grown in a single 00:16:50.379 --> 00:16:54.080 year, the military actions of the United States, 00:16:54.120 --> 00:16:57.340 the actions in economic matters for the world, 00:16:57.480 --> 00:17:01.779 well, if it is to worry about humanity, I do 00:17:01.779 --> 00:17:04.119 not want to scandalize the audience, but it is 00:17:04.119 --> 00:17:07.079 to worry about humanity. Quite now that you said 00:17:07.079 --> 00:17:10.599 about how the strongest is going to decide the 00:17:10.599 --> 00:17:15.009 destiny of the nations, just Macron. visited 00:17:15.009 --> 00:17:18.670 a series of nuclear submarines that they have 00:17:18.670 --> 00:17:22.049 in Brittany, in the south of France. There he 00:17:22.049 --> 00:17:24.809 sang the anthem and gave a speech where he said, 00:17:24.849 --> 00:17:28.309 or suggested, that in order for there to be peace, 00:17:28.990 --> 00:17:31.089 you have to make sure they don't mess with your 00:17:31.089 --> 00:17:33.930 country. And that implies, precisely, that you 00:17:33.930 --> 00:17:37.210 must increase your nuclear arsenal. He said that 00:17:37.210 --> 00:17:39.579 from now on you will start a... It's a series 00:17:39.579 --> 00:17:42.059 of processes. It's a phrase to be respected and 00:17:42.059 --> 00:17:45.799 to be afraid of something like that. The nuclear 00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:47.960 dissuasion. He spoke of nuclear dissuasion from 00:17:47.960 --> 00:17:51.539 this rearmament. He also speaks in his speech 00:17:51.539 --> 00:17:55.200 about China and Russia. I think he clearly separates 00:17:55.200 --> 00:17:59.759 two groups, a bipolar world, in that case, where 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:01.859 I think he separates Russia and China on the 00:18:01.859 --> 00:18:05.440 one hand and puts the West on the other. in a 00:18:05.440 --> 00:18:07.940 very clear way, here in the National Hymn, in 00:18:07.940 --> 00:18:09.299 front of all the troops, and well, it gives an 00:18:09.299 --> 00:18:12.599 important speech. Iran attacks a British base 00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:14.539 and consequently France, the United Kingdom and 00:18:14.539 --> 00:18:18.000 Greece send reinforcements to Cyprus, just to 00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:21.799 potentially initiate operations similar to those 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:24.240 of the United States and Israel. So, that is 00:18:24.240 --> 00:18:26.420 key, and also the decision, as Claudia already 00:18:26.420 --> 00:18:30.140 commented, that the countries of the Gulf, which 00:18:30.140 --> 00:19:03.019 are neighbors of... America Powerful! Macio Sari. 00:19:09.450 --> 00:19:13.029 Thank you for continuing in the public media 00:19:13.029 --> 00:19:15.369 analysis bar. We continue talking about destabilization 00:19:15.369 --> 00:19:17.450 in the Middle East. And well, I'll steal a minute 00:19:17.450 --> 00:19:19.950 from my colleagues just to talk about additional 00:19:19.950 --> 00:19:23.289 consequences in global terms. In Asia, China, 00:19:23.630 --> 00:19:27.650 India, Japan and South Korea receive 84 % of 00:19:27.650 --> 00:19:31.369 their crude from these countries that right now 00:19:31.369 --> 00:19:35.089 cannot commercialize anything. There are around 00:19:35.089 --> 00:19:37.789 200 large ships that are stopped in the Strait 00:19:37.789 --> 00:19:42.049 of... Europe is already facing important inflationary 00:19:42.049 --> 00:19:43.269 pressures. We said that the price of liquefied 00:19:43.269 --> 00:19:47.950 gas rose by 50 % in a couple of days. The demand 00:19:47.950 --> 00:19:50.609 curve is tightening a lot. And in the long term, 00:19:50.710 --> 00:19:52.450 it also affects the bonds. I already mentioned 00:19:52.450 --> 00:19:56.190 it. Especially in the emerging markets. We're 00:19:56.190 --> 00:19:57.890 going to see that. Because, let's say, they're 00:19:57.890 --> 00:19:59.670 going to be placed as countries of greater risk 00:19:59.670 --> 00:20:03.589 and they're going to have a negative effect in 00:20:03.589 --> 00:20:06.839 that sense. And potentially we could see what 00:20:06.839 --> 00:20:09.240 happened just in 2022, which is this inflation, 00:20:09.519 --> 00:20:12.740 a very important growth in inflation. And in 00:20:12.740 --> 00:20:17.880 terms of production, the fall of the world economy 00:20:17.880 --> 00:20:19.940 is going to decrease. That is a great long -term 00:20:19.940 --> 00:20:22.460 risk. And finally, let's talk about this energy 00:20:22.460 --> 00:20:26.019 shock and how... Well, let's say the Arab Emirates 00:20:26.019 --> 00:20:29.759 have tried to move operations for one or another 00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:32.019 life, but they have not been able to. One of 00:20:32.019 --> 00:20:35.980 its main infrastructures was on fire because 00:20:35.980 --> 00:20:39.680 a couple of missiles fell. Qatar massively closed 00:20:39.680 --> 00:20:42.849 production. And we are talking about a supply 00:20:42.849 --> 00:20:46.349 crisis in the next few days. And in a weakened 00:20:46.349 --> 00:20:50.069 economy. And here it would seem very important 00:20:50.069 --> 00:20:53.710 to me that we remember the position, not only 00:20:53.710 --> 00:20:56.250 of the Dormu Strait, but the general geographical 00:20:56.250 --> 00:21:00.049 position of Iran, as a connector between the 00:21:00.049 --> 00:21:03.150 entire Asian market, which is buoyant, and all 00:21:03.150 --> 00:21:05.970 the interconnectivity towards Europe through 00:21:05.970 --> 00:21:09.109 the Euro -Asian route. And that in some way we 00:21:09.109 --> 00:21:12.980 have seen from the pressure of the NATO that 00:21:12.980 --> 00:21:16.539 it exerted towards Russia, we have seen how the 00:21:16.539 --> 00:21:19.160 United States has been trying to prevent even 00:21:19.160 --> 00:21:21.619 European countries from connecting to this market. 00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:24.920 So, remember that most of the objectives are 00:21:24.920 --> 00:21:27.799 not only to reach for oil, which of course is 00:21:27.799 --> 00:21:31.940 a strategic reason for weight, but it also talks 00:21:31.940 --> 00:21:34.720 about a strategy that although right now the 00:21:34.720 --> 00:21:37.200 United States, as it was pointed out, has a problem 00:21:37.200 --> 00:21:41.599 of a deficit, a terrible debt, It also has very 00:21:41.599 --> 00:21:45.420 few technological capabilities. So, in all this 00:21:45.420 --> 00:21:50.240 context, it can no longer reach China, even in 00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:53.660 the same documents of the US security strategy, 00:21:53.900 --> 00:21:55.940 because it is already clear that they will not 00:21:55.940 --> 00:21:59.259 try to go directly over China, simply establish 00:21:59.259 --> 00:22:02.359 another type of alignment. They speak of a supposed 00:22:02.359 --> 00:22:05.700 tripolarity between China, Russia and the United 00:22:05.700 --> 00:22:09.400 States, but what is happening in reality is that 00:22:09.400 --> 00:22:12.980 China is multiplying its capacities every year 00:22:12.980 --> 00:22:17.869 as well. That is, with all this scene of war 00:22:17.869 --> 00:22:20.549 in the United States, it contrasts with the solid 00:22:20.549 --> 00:22:23.569 advances that China is not only having, but also 00:22:23.569 --> 00:22:26.750 the other commercial structures that are now 00:22:26.750 --> 00:22:29.670 sprouting everywhere, even the Europeans themselves 00:22:29.670 --> 00:22:34.009 are now going to China and establishing an understanding 00:22:34.009 --> 00:22:36.170 that the United States is no longer reliable 00:22:36.170 --> 00:22:39.069 and therefore the alternatives are also issues 00:22:39.069 --> 00:22:42.049 of life or death for the different economies. 00:22:43.279 --> 00:22:46.359 Iran is a key piece. I think we could identify 00:22:46.359 --> 00:22:49.700 what is happening as a desperate attempt by the 00:22:49.700 --> 00:22:53.680 United States to stop the possible advance. Well, 00:22:53.740 --> 00:22:57.660 not the contundent advance that the Asian nation 00:22:57.660 --> 00:22:59.640 is having. But, for example, here I cannot take 00:22:59.640 --> 00:23:03.119 advantage of having three expert economists and 00:23:03.119 --> 00:23:05.380 that they do not help us here with the public. 00:23:05.960 --> 00:23:10.059 All this. de cómo está cambiando el precio del 00:23:10.059 --> 00:23:12.220 barril del petróleo, el tema del gas natural, 00:23:12.579 --> 00:23:15.180 la oferta, la demanda, que si están detenidos, 00:23:15.180 --> 00:23:17.700 que si no puede pasar. Al final, ¿cómo lo vamos 00:23:17.700 --> 00:23:20.359 a aterrizar en México? Es decir, a las personas 00:23:20.359 --> 00:23:22.339 aquí, para que nos haga sentido también en temas 00:23:22.339 --> 00:23:24.920 económicos, porque al final del día, pues estamos 00:23:24.920 --> 00:23:28.279 inmersos en esta globalización. Y sobre todo, 00:23:28.319 --> 00:23:30.500 pues en el tema del petróleo, del precio del 00:23:30.500 --> 00:23:33.019 barril del petróleo en México, ¿cómo va a afectar 00:23:33.019 --> 00:23:35.519 la economía mexicana? ¿Hacia dónde ven que va 00:23:35.519 --> 00:23:38.509 esto? I think that one of the main problems is 00:23:38.509 --> 00:23:41.029 related to the increase in the price of gas. 00:23:41.369 --> 00:23:45.269 We still depend a lot on the import of gas from 00:23:45.269 --> 00:23:46.990 the United States, and not because it is directly 00:23:46.990 --> 00:23:49.769 related, because we are not considering it that 00:23:49.769 --> 00:23:52.450 way, but because it is a global market, and if 00:23:52.450 --> 00:23:54.650 the price of gas rises in some part of the world, 00:23:54.730 --> 00:23:57.349 it will be shot down by different regions. So, 00:23:57.369 --> 00:24:00.750 depending on an important amount of gas from 00:24:00.750 --> 00:24:03.130 the United States, and if it tends to rise, why 00:24:03.130 --> 00:24:06.529 do we use gas? To generate energy. So the energy 00:24:06.529 --> 00:24:10.230 that we use in Mexico depends a lot on American 00:24:10.230 --> 00:24:13.130 gas. Now, if we would have a direct impact as 00:24:13.130 --> 00:24:17.109 citizens, not necessarily. In fact, when the 00:24:17.109 --> 00:24:20.410 prices of gas grew around 2021, when there was 00:24:20.410 --> 00:24:23.230 a great cold, when pipes were frozen in Texas 00:24:23.230 --> 00:24:29.890 and in different parts of... Thank you very much. 00:24:37.690 --> 00:24:40.269 the best in the countries of the OCDE, not only 00:24:40.269 --> 00:24:42.650 in the part of the gas, also because through 00:24:42.650 --> 00:24:45.809 the control of the price of the gas that is exercised 00:24:45.809 --> 00:24:47.970 by the modification of the IEPS, it is not transferred 00:24:47.970 --> 00:24:50.930 to the consumers. So there is probably an impact 00:24:50.930 --> 00:24:53.309 on public finances, but not on consumers. And 00:24:53.309 --> 00:24:57.049 the privates did close their plants. When they 00:24:57.049 --> 00:25:01.069 saw the increase in prices, they stopped producing. 00:25:01.609 --> 00:25:04.089 That's why it's so healthy. the threshold that 00:25:04.089 --> 00:25:09.549 is in the constitutional text of 54 % of production 00:25:09.549 --> 00:25:14.279 by the state 46 % by the private sector, because 00:25:14.279 --> 00:25:17.240 if one of the two engines is turned off, you 00:25:17.240 --> 00:25:20.279 can continue to operate. And it is part of the 00:25:20.279 --> 00:25:23.059 principle of energy security that is not to depend 00:25:23.059 --> 00:25:25.380 on the private sector, because goodbye, of course. 00:25:25.599 --> 00:25:28.619 And remember that this was the model that we 00:25:28.619 --> 00:25:34.079 have been defending for six years. To have a 00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:37.039 oil company that we are going to talk about that 00:25:37.039 --> 00:25:40.950 later. But at this moment, we have an increase 00:25:40.950 --> 00:25:45.470 in oil. Transport will increase. Diesel will 00:25:45.470 --> 00:25:47.890 rise. This will be transferred to the cost of 00:25:47.890 --> 00:25:50.750 goods. And this is a story that we already lived 00:25:50.750 --> 00:25:55.710 when Russia invaded Ukraine, when we had problems 00:25:55.710 --> 00:25:59.730 with the Nord Stream gas pipeline, where... We 00:25:59.730 --> 00:26:03.730 had this component. The rule of the game is called 00:26:03.730 --> 00:26:07.210 scarcity. And the scarcity of a resource as important 00:26:07.210 --> 00:26:12.289 as the energy one generates inflation. We are 00:26:12.289 --> 00:26:15.589 going to have inflationary pressures again. And 00:26:15.589 --> 00:26:19.170 as you well mentioned, Tonatiuh, Mexico has a 00:26:19.170 --> 00:26:22.470 very important net effect. If the price of oil 00:26:22.470 --> 00:26:26.349 increases, then we are going to have more income. 00:26:27.069 --> 00:26:30.190 We are going to have to net the impact on gasoline. 00:26:30.630 --> 00:26:34.029 There is coverage. Pemex has prepared for this. 00:26:34.269 --> 00:26:37.430 But I insist, the most important thing is to 00:26:37.430 --> 00:26:41.569 have a model of energy self -sufficiency that 00:26:41.569 --> 00:26:44.950 puts us in a very interesting position. China 00:26:44.950 --> 00:26:49.990 receives 5 million barrels a day from the Ormuz 00:26:49.990 --> 00:26:55.039 route. India, Japan, South Korea. And I would 00:26:55.039 --> 00:27:00.460 like to say that this is not only a short -term 00:27:00.460 --> 00:27:03.799 impact, but it is an impact that seeks to plant 00:27:03.799 --> 00:27:07.480 the structures of the economic poles that are 00:27:07.480 --> 00:27:11.759 being developed. And I mean the BRICS. So the 00:27:11.759 --> 00:27:16.140 traffic of the Ormuz Strait is one of its geopolitical 00:27:16.140 --> 00:27:19.740 risks. that also change the economic structure 00:27:19.740 --> 00:27:23.019 in the long term and we have an inflationary 00:27:23.019 --> 00:27:25.720 impact. Here the question is how many countries? 00:27:26.299 --> 00:27:28.980 ¿Cuántas empresas, cuántos consumidores pueden 00:27:28.980 --> 00:27:32.920 resistir otra vez el impacto de la inflación? 00:27:33.180 --> 00:27:35.660 Corre, sí. A mí me gustaría rápidamente nada 00:27:35.660 --> 00:27:38.579 más también adherir a todo esto que se está planteando. 00:27:38.640 --> 00:27:41.759 Y me parece prudente la pregunta de cuál es el 00:27:41.759 --> 00:27:44.619 efecto inmediato. Recordar que también en toda 00:27:44.619 --> 00:27:47.799 esta dinámica histórica tan intensa que hemos 00:27:47.799 --> 00:27:50.000 estado viviendo, es verdad que México está en 00:27:50.000 --> 00:27:52.500 una condición macroeconómica muy fuerte. Hay 00:27:52.500 --> 00:27:59.400 mucha... Exactly. So we have a lot of resistance 00:27:59.400 --> 00:28:02.839 to that kind of storm. There is also this mechanism 00:28:02.839 --> 00:28:06.240 of the IEPS, which is a mechanism that also allows 00:28:06.240 --> 00:28:09.420 to avoid that the effects reach the final consumer. 00:28:09.599 --> 00:28:12.099 It is known and is part of the economic model 00:28:12.099 --> 00:28:14.519 of the fourth transformation, the one that is 00:28:14.519 --> 00:28:18.259 under control, the liter of gasoline, because 00:28:18.259 --> 00:28:21.480 this is obviously the one that can generate or 00:28:21.480 --> 00:28:25.670 not a price increase. we have been seeing in 00:28:25.670 --> 00:28:28.190 the model is that inflation has been in accordance 00:28:28.190 --> 00:28:31.430 with the objectives. We had a primary financial 00:28:31.430 --> 00:28:35.670 storm at the time of the elections in 2024 that 00:28:35.670 --> 00:28:38.950 came from Japan and we resisted it. We recovered 00:28:38.950 --> 00:28:43.869 the currency. That is to say, it is strong because 00:28:43.869 --> 00:28:47.289 also do not forget that in this crisis Mexico 00:28:47.289 --> 00:28:50.109 is playing an important role because it has been 00:28:50.109 --> 00:28:53.029 the landing pad of the return of the investments 00:28:53.029 --> 00:28:56.109 that come of this conflict precisely that exists 00:28:56.109 --> 00:28:58.630 between the North American and the Eastern market, 00:28:58.710 --> 00:29:00.950 that is, the arrival of direct foreign investment 00:29:00.950 --> 00:29:03.930 as well and the need, that is why it is important 00:29:03.930 --> 00:29:05.809 to take advantage of the crises also to remember 00:29:05.809 --> 00:29:09.250 the need of the industrialization policy, that 00:29:09.250 --> 00:29:11.710 is, the Mexican plan is to strengthen the internal 00:29:11.710 --> 00:29:14.210 market because you know very well that a strengthened 00:29:14.210 --> 00:29:17.250 internal market, these distributed development 00:29:17.250 --> 00:29:20.630 poles throughout the country, developing industry 00:29:20.630 --> 00:29:25.240 and not only consuming the world market, we are 00:29:25.240 --> 00:29:28.799 in the construction of another way also to support 00:29:28.799 --> 00:29:32.559 these teluric movements so complicated of the 00:29:32.559 --> 00:29:34.920 world market. There is shielding for the Mexican 00:29:34.920 --> 00:29:37.519 consumer, where I think they are much more exposed 00:29:37.519 --> 00:29:39.480 is in the United States, because there, yes, 00:29:39.539 --> 00:29:42.400 the impact that is transferred to the consumer, 00:29:42.539 --> 00:29:45.539 in the case of gasoline and diesel, is immediate, 00:29:45.700 --> 00:29:49.440 and consumers are very sensitive. That has moved 00:29:49.440 --> 00:29:55.180 results. Because as they mostly move in individual 00:29:55.180 --> 00:29:58.839 vehicles, then they have to assume those costs, 00:29:59.019 --> 00:30:01.799 move at long distances. And it seems to me that 00:30:01.799 --> 00:30:04.400 it is also part of Iran's strategy. They are 00:30:04.400 --> 00:30:08.059 suffering an impact for this intervention. They 00:30:08.059 --> 00:30:10.680 return it, complicating, let's say, the economic 00:30:10.680 --> 00:30:15.299 environment, with strategies also there in asymmetric 00:30:15.299 --> 00:30:18.170 terms, because I was reading that... Each of 00:30:18.170 --> 00:30:21.970 these drones that Iran can launch costs about 00:30:21.970 --> 00:30:25.289 $20 ,000 in production, and each of the missiles 00:30:25.289 --> 00:30:29.150 that countries use to be able to stop these drones 00:30:29.150 --> 00:30:33.009 costs at least $2 million. That is, they spend 00:30:33.009 --> 00:30:35.769 100 times more on stopping the attacks. So it 00:30:35.769 --> 00:30:39.769 is also a strategy to wear out other nations, 00:30:39.910 --> 00:30:42.349 particularly the United States. But going back 00:30:42.349 --> 00:30:45.750 to the issue of the short -term and the management 00:30:45.750 --> 00:30:50.569 of variables to maintain the balance of public 00:30:50.569 --> 00:30:54.369 finances in our country, we have to point out 00:30:54.369 --> 00:30:58.329 that there is a recall when you have to apply 00:30:58.329 --> 00:31:02.490 the formula of the IEPS. So the government can 00:31:02.490 --> 00:31:06.049 stop capturing that that could be compensated. 00:31:06.400 --> 00:31:10.539 If we manage to capitalize this moment of instability, 00:31:11.099 --> 00:31:14.440 Mexico begins to produce more, which cannot be 00:31:14.440 --> 00:31:17.579 produced in other countries. And then, in the 00:31:17.579 --> 00:31:21.059 formula of fiscal sustainability, we begin to 00:31:21.059 --> 00:31:25.099 have more income by ISR, and then we manage to 00:31:25.099 --> 00:31:27.779 compensate it. Here the good news is that we 00:31:27.779 --> 00:31:30.529 do not have deaths in the closet. que podemos 00:31:30.529 --> 00:31:34.190 hacer este manejo de variables, pero sin duda 00:31:34.190 --> 00:31:36.750 si hubiéramos llegado en otras condiciones ahora 00:31:36.750 --> 00:31:39.609 estaríamos realmente preocupados. Dios nos libre. 00:31:59.799 --> 00:32:01.359 in its numbers, in the numbers of the Commission, 00:32:01.539 --> 00:32:03.660 without the need for Hacienda to make an additional 00:32:03.660 --> 00:32:07.000 movement. And the part of controlling the IEPS 00:32:07.000 --> 00:32:09.799 and not affecting the citizens also has a direct 00:32:09.799 --> 00:32:13.480 benefit on inflation, of course, and on the internal 00:32:13.480 --> 00:32:16.420 market. Because in the end, let's say you keep 00:32:16.420 --> 00:32:19.380 the consumption stable at a certain level and 00:32:19.380 --> 00:32:23.200 you don't affect the people as a whole. So, let's 00:32:23.200 --> 00:32:25.500 say it's a benefit at the expense of not perceiving 00:32:25.500 --> 00:32:28.319 an important part of IEPS. That year in particular, 00:32:28.480 --> 00:32:31.960 the balance for that account was negative. The 00:32:31.960 --> 00:32:35.240 effect that I could mention here is that when 00:32:35.240 --> 00:32:38.140 there is instability, well, we have announced 00:32:38.140 --> 00:32:44.230 that there is capacity to absorb inflation. reconstruction 00:32:44.230 --> 00:32:47.630 of restructuring of the economy but what if it 00:32:47.630 --> 00:32:50.410 is that it changes the expectations in the medium 00:32:50.410 --> 00:32:54.009 and long term and can delay the decrease in the 00:32:54.009 --> 00:32:56.630 interest rate and we know that the higher the 00:32:56.630 --> 00:33:01.069 interest rate because then it is braking the 00:33:01.069 --> 00:33:03.769 investment and what we need right now is precisely 00:33:03.769 --> 00:33:09.660 in seven points But it came to be at 11. It came 00:33:09.660 --> 00:33:12.220 to be at 11 .50. Or even more, right? It's correct. 00:33:12.339 --> 00:33:15.500 It was crazy. But we also have the pending, in 00:33:15.500 --> 00:33:17.640 addition to the reference rate, that there is 00:33:17.640 --> 00:33:21.119 also a capacity to transfer, since the commercial 00:33:21.119 --> 00:33:25.200 bank also manages to reach the PYMES. By the 00:33:25.200 --> 00:33:27.019 way, the bankers are going to have to play as 00:33:27.019 --> 00:33:29.759 they were in the context of the pandemic, which 00:33:29.759 --> 00:33:33.720 was declared the pandemic five years ago. They 00:33:33.720 --> 00:33:35.319 are going to have to play this context again. 00:33:35.480 --> 00:33:38.240 And again they are going to have to play. El 00:33:38.240 --> 00:33:40.720 gran desafío, que no lo han tomado del todo, 00:33:40.920 --> 00:33:44.380 de dar créditos en un momento clave. Yo creo 00:33:44.380 --> 00:33:48.779 que solo si se alarga. Si esto es de más de un 00:33:48.779 --> 00:33:51.980 mes, ya tendrían, probablemente vendrían ese 00:33:51.980 --> 00:33:52.799 tipo de acciones. Porque la promesa de Estados 00:33:52.799 --> 00:33:55.380 Unidos es semanas, ¿no? Máximo cinco semanas. 00:33:56.259 --> 00:33:59.400 O sea, no estoy seguro de que estemos en ese 00:33:59.400 --> 00:34:02.759 momento, pero hablando de etapas, de corto, mediano 00:34:02.759 --> 00:34:05.619 y largo plazo. There is still room, I would say, 00:34:05.799 --> 00:34:08.719 for this to be controlled. As long as, I also 00:34:08.719 --> 00:34:11.639 commented with Paul before entering. In makeup. 00:34:12.179 --> 00:34:15.880 In makeup. Before... Well, people must know that 00:34:15.880 --> 00:34:17.920 we are wearing makeup. It's necessary sometimes. 00:34:18.300 --> 00:34:22.199 But before... But only if Russia doesn't... From 00:34:22.199 --> 00:34:23.099 my point of view, the dispute does not enter. 00:34:23.320 --> 00:34:25.840 Why Russia in particular? Because when Russia 00:34:25.840 --> 00:34:28.519 and Ukraine had, well, it still maintains the 00:34:28.519 --> 00:34:31.199 armed conflict of these two countries, who joined, 00:34:31.400 --> 00:34:33.480 let's say, on the side of Russia was Iran and 00:34:33.480 --> 00:34:37.440 North Korea. Their allies at that time were Iran, 00:34:37.599 --> 00:34:41.460 North Korea. So I don't know how much it suits 00:34:41.460 --> 00:34:46.840 Russia as a very important military power to 00:34:46.840 --> 00:34:49.849 say, well, well. that the United States does 00:34:49.849 --> 00:34:52.150 what it wants in Venezuela, in Cuba, in Greenland, 00:34:52.449 --> 00:34:55.389 in Iran, because it is getting much closer, it 00:34:55.389 --> 00:34:57.530 is taking bigger steps and it is getting closer 00:34:57.530 --> 00:34:59.769 to Russian territory. Yes, well, there is also 00:34:59.769 --> 00:35:01.789 a very clear strategy that is then forgotten, 00:35:01.949 --> 00:35:03.650 which has to do with the fact that there is also 00:35:03.650 --> 00:35:06.530 a document of a strategic understanding between 00:35:06.530 --> 00:35:08.650 Russia and China, that is, they are already making 00:35:08.650 --> 00:35:10.789 the interpretation, they start from the interpretation 00:35:10.789 --> 00:35:14.789 that the United States is simply on the trajectory 00:35:14.789 --> 00:35:19.079 that it cannot avoid, that is, to do technology 00:35:19.079 --> 00:35:23.000 and to have the determination that he had at 00:35:23.000 --> 00:35:25.519 the time, not anymore. So Russia and China are 00:35:25.519 --> 00:35:28.639 also waiting. I think they should also be there. 00:35:28.980 --> 00:35:31.039 Well, let's remember that Iran is part of the 00:35:31.039 --> 00:35:35.059 BRICS already and that also implies that, as 00:35:35.059 --> 00:35:37.699 Hamlet well pointed out, there is also a matter 00:35:37.699 --> 00:35:42.059 of resistance in this whole issue and resistance 00:35:42.059 --> 00:35:44.960 is achieved with productive capacity and access 00:35:44.960 --> 00:35:47.599 to resources. Let's not forget that the year 00:35:47.659 --> 00:35:52.099 last year, the first railway route was inaugurated 00:35:52.099 --> 00:35:55.559 directly between Iran and China, which is like 00:35:55.559 --> 00:35:59.920 a kind of direct support because, in some way 00:35:59.920 --> 00:36:03.420 or another, the declarations by Xi Jinping have 00:36:03.420 --> 00:36:04.880 also been very clear in the sense that they are 00:36:04.880 --> 00:36:10.480 saying we support Iran and that I think that 00:36:10.480 --> 00:36:12.980 the reading from that side of the planet has 00:36:12.980 --> 00:36:14.739 to do with the fact that it is already inevitable 00:36:14.739 --> 00:36:23.920 the moment of The New York Times has said, quoting 00:36:23.920 --> 00:36:28.940 official sources, that Mr. Trump has exaggerated 00:36:28.940 --> 00:36:33.719 the immediacy of any threat that Iran represents 00:36:33.719 --> 00:36:36.039 for the United States and for the world. He has 00:36:36.039 --> 00:36:39.119 exaggerated. And I think the key is that this 00:36:39.119 --> 00:36:42.730 does not scale. What worries me is that this 00:36:42.730 --> 00:36:46.289 offensive by the United States of Israel against 00:36:46.289 --> 00:36:50.070 Iran has crossed a new threshold because it has 00:36:50.070 --> 00:36:54.210 attacked cities, airports, energy infrastructure 00:36:54.210 --> 00:36:59.150 that has been considered strategic. We see this 00:36:59.150 --> 00:37:03.269 issue of Hormuz, that there is no other way that 00:37:03.269 --> 00:37:07.969 could replace the maritime mobility it represents. 00:37:08.940 --> 00:37:12.840 Y creo que estamos analizando lo estructural, 00:37:12.900 --> 00:37:16.760 pero me sigue preocupando que esto pudiera escalar, 00:37:16.800 --> 00:37:19.900 que no sean cuatro ni cinco semanas. Y hemos 00:37:19.900 --> 00:37:23.239 estado escuchando a los analistas que opinan 00:37:23.239 --> 00:37:26.519 que Trump se equivocó. Que fue una equivocación. 00:37:26.960 --> 00:37:29.500 Bueno, vamos a cambiar de tema. Vamos a hablar 00:37:29.500 --> 00:37:31.900 de los resultados de Pemex. Les agradecemos estar 00:37:31.900 --> 00:37:35.460 en el martes de Economía y Política. Coméntenos 00:37:35.460 --> 00:37:38.800 en redes sociales. Paul, siempre es dichoso de 00:37:38.800 --> 00:37:50.559 escucharlos y leerlos. Gracias. Salud. Sigue 00:37:50.559 --> 00:38:00.639 el contenido de Canal 11 y Canal 22. Pemex reporta 00:38:00.639 --> 00:38:03.639 en 2025 el menor nivel de deuda en más de una 00:38:03.639 --> 00:38:06.460 década, liquidez a su cadena de valor, mayor 00:38:06.460 --> 00:38:08.880 dinamismo en refinación y repunte de ventas de 00:38:08.880 --> 00:38:11.539 combustible. Pemex registered an increase of 00:38:11.539 --> 00:38:15.519 7 % in the sales of its main fuels. Pemex successfully 00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:19.340 executed the comprehensive training and financing 00:38:19.340 --> 00:38:21.719 strategy, designed in coordination with the Secretary 00:38:21.719 --> 00:38:24.099 of Finance and Public Credit and the Secretary 00:38:24.099 --> 00:38:26.699 of Energy. Fitch Rating raised Pemex's credit 00:38:26.699 --> 00:38:31.900 rating to BP +, three steps, while Moody's improved 00:38:31.900 --> 00:38:35.900 it to B1, two steps, both with a stable perspective. 00:38:38.699 --> 00:38:47.699 you Gracias por continuar en la barra de análisis 00:38:47.699 --> 00:38:50.039 de los medios públicos. Ahora nos toca cambiar 00:38:50.039 --> 00:38:52.579 de tema. Hablaremos sobre el reporte de resultados 00:38:52.579 --> 00:38:56.219 de Pemex. Sin duda hay una conexión íntima con 00:38:56.219 --> 00:38:59.079 la situación en Medio Oriente y lo que significa 00:38:59.079 --> 00:39:02.260 esto para el país. Pemex, como bien sabemos, 00:39:02.559 --> 00:39:06.659 es una de las empresas históricas más grandes 00:39:06.659 --> 00:39:09.480 de nuestro país y que además han dotado durante 00:39:09.480 --> 00:39:12.239 muchos años de recursos para el desarrollo de 00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:15.039 la nación. Durante el periodo neoliberal estuvo 00:39:15.119 --> 00:39:47.489 uh there are many elements that we have to add 00:39:47.489 --> 00:39:50.449 to the analysis to establish what is the route 00:39:50.449 --> 00:39:54.090 to strengthen energy sovereignty. These are good 00:39:54.090 --> 00:39:57.769 news for Pemex and for the country. It is in 00:39:57.769 --> 00:40:01.369 this process of stabilization. The truth is that 00:40:01.369 --> 00:40:04.489 at the end of the neoliberal period, they had 00:40:04.489 --> 00:40:08.610 left our most important historical company. in 00:40:08.610 --> 00:40:11.449 the bones, practically. They had no conditions 00:40:11.449 --> 00:40:13.809 to operate, they had fragmented it, they had 00:40:13.809 --> 00:40:16.190 divided it into subsidiaries, in such a way that 00:40:16.190 --> 00:40:19.329 it could not be coordinated. It had that legal 00:40:19.329 --> 00:40:21.949 prohibition, they could not talk between the 00:40:21.949 --> 00:40:25.809 directors of the different subsidiaries, there 00:40:25.809 --> 00:40:30.510 was no single command, which is absolutely illogical 00:40:30.510 --> 00:40:34.449 in an environment like the current one. Agility 00:40:34.449 --> 00:40:36.530 is required in decision -making, unity is required. 00:40:37.670 --> 00:40:41.750 And we are seeing that this constitutional reform, 00:40:41.750 --> 00:40:45.230 promoted by President López Obrador, approved 00:40:45.230 --> 00:40:48.289 in both chambers of Congress and local legislatures, 00:40:48.289 --> 00:40:52.510 and the secondary reforms in energy matters, 00:40:52.510 --> 00:40:58.030 allow Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission 00:40:58.030 --> 00:41:02.730 itself to resurface with that strength. So, congratulations 00:41:02.730 --> 00:41:06.110 to the entire Pemex team for this achievement. 00:41:06.289 --> 00:41:09.659 May many more come. And I would like to add that 00:41:09.659 --> 00:41:13.699 Petróleos Mexicanos is one of those companies, 00:41:13.780 --> 00:41:17.900 not only emblematic for a country like Mexico, 00:41:18.039 --> 00:41:21.900 where we need it in many regions. It is the engine 00:41:21.900 --> 00:41:26.059 of the economy. And there is a oil company of 00:41:26.059 --> 00:41:28.900 the characteristics of Pemex, because it generates 00:41:28.900 --> 00:41:33.059 jobs, generates activity, generates social benefit. 00:41:33.900 --> 00:41:35.800 That must not be forgotten, because it is not 00:41:35.800 --> 00:41:39.679 only a company with which we seek to earn money 00:41:39.679 --> 00:41:44.179 or have energy sovereignty. Let me tell you that 00:41:44.179 --> 00:41:47.940 in the field of operations, Pemex's production 00:41:47.940 --> 00:41:52.099 stabilized. And they use this term in the Mexican 00:41:52.099 --> 00:41:56.679 oil press bulletin. Stabilizing is the word. 00:41:58.349 --> 00:42:02.150 who was in intensive care, who goes to intermediate 00:42:02.150 --> 00:42:06.550 care, who is receiving the appropriate care, 00:42:06.550 --> 00:42:11.349 is receiving nutrients, it is money that the 00:42:11.349 --> 00:42:13.909 government transfers to him, the Secretariat 00:42:13.909 --> 00:42:17.440 of Hacienda. Se le ha respaldado porque se consideraba 00:42:17.440 --> 00:42:20.780 una empresa que tenía bonos basura. Pensemos 00:42:20.780 --> 00:42:25.800 que no es que la empresa estuviera ya en el lugar 00:42:25.800 --> 00:42:29.639 de los desechos, sino que los empresarios y los 00:42:29.639 --> 00:42:32.119 inversionistas decían, pues es una empresa que 00:42:32.119 --> 00:42:35.800 puede dejar de pagar. Ahora tiene el respaldo 00:42:35.800 --> 00:42:40.900 del gobierno. Se estabilizó en 1 ,648 ,000 barriles 00:42:40.900 --> 00:42:44.380 diarios. El Sistema Nacional de Refinación ya... 00:42:44.489 --> 00:42:49.170 processes 1 ,136 ,000 barrels of crude oil daily, 00:42:49.170 --> 00:42:53.489 which is an increase of 44 .4 % in comparison 00:42:53.489 --> 00:42:58.210 with the same quarter. And a scheme of mixed 00:42:58.210 --> 00:43:00.849 investments begins. There appears the name of 00:43:00.849 --> 00:43:05.809 Carlos Slim, that Carlos Slim finds in natural 00:43:05.809 --> 00:43:11.989 gas that we are importing a business that is 00:43:11.989 --> 00:43:14.849 going to be very profitable. So there is money 00:43:14.849 --> 00:43:18.150 on the part of the private sector. We have a 00:43:18.150 --> 00:43:23.550 reduction in the historical debt. The Pemex debt 00:43:23.550 --> 00:43:28.250 has reduced by 13 % in 2024 and 19 % in comparison 00:43:28.250 --> 00:43:31.889 with 2018. And I would like to close the commentary 00:43:31.889 --> 00:43:35.010 by saying that the war or the declaration of 00:43:35.010 --> 00:43:37.369 war or the confrontation represents an opportunity 00:43:37.369 --> 00:43:41.889 for Pemex. When Ukraine and Russia entered into 00:43:41.889 --> 00:43:44.840 confrontation, We had the pressure from the United 00:43:44.840 --> 00:43:49.599 States that we had to buy its diesel. When the 00:43:49.599 --> 00:43:51.940 United States gets distracted and sends diesel 00:43:51.940 --> 00:43:57.960 to Europe, Mexico could start consuming its own 00:43:57.960 --> 00:44:01.559 diesel, its own fertilizers, and it will also 00:44:01.559 --> 00:44:06.559 consume its gasoline. We have a chance, and Pemex 00:44:06.559 --> 00:44:09.679 I think will capitalize on it. Pues ojalá que 00:44:09.679 --> 00:44:12.840 sí. Parece frase muy trillada históricamente, 00:44:12.840 --> 00:44:14.679 pero siempre decimos los mexicanos que si le 00:44:14.679 --> 00:44:17.340 va bien a Pemex, le va bien a México. De ese 00:44:17.340 --> 00:44:20.619 tamaño es la importancia que tiene esta empresa 00:44:20.619 --> 00:44:23.579 para las finanzas mexicanas, para el pueblo de 00:44:23.579 --> 00:44:27.440 México, para el gasto, para que con eso podamos 00:44:27.440 --> 00:44:30.599 tener infraestructura, podamos tener hospitales, 00:44:30.599 --> 00:44:33.039 podamos tener desarrollo. Entonces hay que cuidar 00:44:33.039 --> 00:44:35.800 a Pemex, hay que cuidar a la empresa. Now that 00:44:35.800 --> 00:44:38.460 you say that they left it in intensive care and 00:44:38.460 --> 00:44:39.900 they are stabilizing it, I don't know if they 00:44:39.900 --> 00:44:41.639 left it in intensive care to the observer or 00:44:41.639 --> 00:44:45.000 before, but how good that it is in this process 00:44:45.000 --> 00:44:48.300 of stabilization. And these interesting data 00:44:48.300 --> 00:44:50.340 that you mention, that I listened to you with 00:44:50.340 --> 00:44:55.800 a lot of attention, of 1 ,648 ,000 daily barrels, 00:44:55.800 --> 00:45:01.179 how good. But in 1980, before all of us who are 00:45:01.179 --> 00:45:03.260 at this table were born, and probably those who 00:45:03.260 --> 00:45:09.320 see us, 1 ,936 ,000 were produced. So we are 00:45:09.320 --> 00:45:12.159 not even yet, notice the capital problem that 00:45:12.159 --> 00:45:15.460 there is, we are not even at the levels of 1980, 00:45:16.199 --> 00:45:18.900 with everything and that goes, well, seven years 00:45:18.900 --> 00:45:23.360 of transformation of public life and of the state 00:45:23.360 --> 00:45:27.579 -owned company. There are some reasons that this 00:45:27.579 --> 00:45:30.760 report that we are analyzing today says. because 00:45:30.760 --> 00:45:34.139 of which there are these numbers, this decline, 00:45:34.300 --> 00:45:37.599 let's say, compared to the historical one. And 00:45:37.599 --> 00:45:40.900 it talks about natural declines of the fields, 00:45:41.179 --> 00:45:44.480 the problem and the complexity that the perforation 00:45:44.480 --> 00:45:47.960 has had, the lack also, it says, or the decay 00:45:47.960 --> 00:45:50.300 of the installation and the infrastructure that 00:45:50.300 --> 00:45:53.659 it has had. And, well, all these reasons, I think, 00:45:53.699 --> 00:45:56.719 we can summarize them in, well, in the end, lack 00:45:56.719 --> 00:45:59.809 of investment. That is, there is not enough capital 00:45:59.809 --> 00:46:02.610 today for the investment that is required in 00:46:02.610 --> 00:46:07.030 infrastructure to get to where the company can 00:46:07.030 --> 00:46:10.349 get. And when one tries to take care of a company, 00:46:10.429 --> 00:46:13.690 or the income, or that it goes better, you have 00:46:13.690 --> 00:46:16.269 to check where the expenses are going, where 00:46:16.269 --> 00:46:21.530 we can cut those expenses or those losses that 00:46:21.530 --> 00:46:24.590 the company is having. And this report has a 00:46:24.590 --> 00:46:27.690 very interesting data. that caught my attention. 00:46:28.250 --> 00:46:32.150 Just one? Because in 2019, it's going to catch 00:46:32.150 --> 00:46:36.010 your attention too, pay attention. In 2019, they 00:46:36.010 --> 00:46:39.650 told us that the huachicol was over. Not the 00:46:39.650 --> 00:46:42.309 fiscal huachicol, that's more modern now. Do 00:46:42.309 --> 00:46:44.070 you remember that in 2019 the Observer said, 00:46:44.170 --> 00:46:46.719 the huachicol is over? And then they left us 00:46:46.719 --> 00:46:48.800 without gasoline for about three weeks. You will 00:46:48.800 --> 00:46:51.559 remember the lines in the gas stations. But it 00:46:51.559 --> 00:46:53.739 was because the huachicol was over and then they 00:46:53.739 --> 00:46:56.179 sent Ebrard to buy pipes. Do you remember that 00:46:56.179 --> 00:47:00.380 moment? So I said, how good, the huachicol is 00:47:00.380 --> 00:47:03.840 over since 2019. And this same report that we 00:47:03.840 --> 00:47:08.260 are now analyzing says that the fuel subtraction, 00:47:08.260 --> 00:47:13.110 that is, huachicol. It grew from 2025, in comparison 00:47:13.110 --> 00:47:16.469 to 2024, by 14%. So there's a serious problem 00:47:16.469 --> 00:47:20.289 there that needs to be addressed. In 2024 it 00:47:20.289 --> 00:47:23.510 was at 20 ,000 million and a fraction, and now 00:47:23.510 --> 00:47:27.210 it's at 23 ,000 million. So we have a huachicol 00:47:27.210 --> 00:47:30.769 problem, chances are it didn't end in 2019, that 00:47:30.769 --> 00:47:33.969 we do have to fight. It's a deficit. Forget about 00:47:33.969 --> 00:47:36.510 the fiscal huachicol of 500 ,000 million, that's 00:47:36.510 --> 00:47:39.900 another story. But only the huachicol, let's 00:47:39.900 --> 00:47:43.079 call it traditional, this fuel subtraction, is 00:47:43.079 --> 00:47:45.960 hitting the company a lot. What could we do with 00:47:45.960 --> 00:47:49.059 those 23 billion additional pesos if we had finished 00:47:49.059 --> 00:47:51.400 with the huachicol? So, these are areas of important 00:47:51.400 --> 00:47:53.920 opportunity that must be taken into account to 00:47:53.920 --> 00:47:57.320 have a totally strengthened company and capacity 00:47:57.320 --> 00:48:00.500 to invest in infrastructure. Two notes before 00:48:00.500 --> 00:48:02.980 moving on to another comment. So that you can 00:48:02.980 --> 00:48:05.139 pay attention. Please. I always pay attention 00:48:05.139 --> 00:48:06.820 to you. You only read the isolated data, you 00:48:06.820 --> 00:48:08.699 didn't read the whole report. I always pay a 00:48:08.699 --> 00:48:10.659 lot of attention to you. And I read the reports 00:48:10.659 --> 00:48:14.900 to come here to talk to you. But you can't lie 00:48:14.900 --> 00:48:17.139 to anyone. And there he explains in those public 00:48:17.139 --> 00:48:21.219 reports, precisely that the strategy to detect 00:48:21.219 --> 00:48:26.300 the leaks, the clandestine takes, these crimes 00:48:26.300 --> 00:48:29.280 against the infrastructure. They have grown precisely 00:48:29.280 --> 00:48:31.440 because now they are reported and not as before. 00:48:31.519 --> 00:48:34.099 Before they were not reported and that is why 00:48:34.099 --> 00:48:36.500 the number of... But it does not grow, look, 00:48:36.639 --> 00:48:37.739 there it is very important. The Olympic Games 00:48:37.739 --> 00:48:44.239 are over. The number of detections and denunciations 00:48:44.239 --> 00:48:47.599 that are made about the detectives, so it is 00:48:47.599 --> 00:48:49.460 very different. Another very important issue. 00:48:49.559 --> 00:48:54.199 You talked about 1980. Subtraction of fuel. And 00:48:54.199 --> 00:48:56.159 not of... Yes, that's why I already explained 00:48:56.159 --> 00:48:58.719 the part of the huachicol. Now, there is a natural 00:48:58.719 --> 00:49:03.699 geological wear in any... Yacimiento. Yacimiento 00:49:03.699 --> 00:49:08.059 de hidrocarburos. Felipe Calderón enjoyed an 00:49:08.059 --> 00:49:11.840 impressive richness that ended... Excedents of 00:49:11.840 --> 00:49:15.159 oil. And Fox, too. Fox, the government... That 00:49:15.159 --> 00:49:21.800 reached 150... El Pan Azul. 150 dollars. They 00:49:21.800 --> 00:49:23.960 threw a significant amount of money. And they 00:49:23.960 --> 00:49:28.679 also indebted Pemex in a brutal way. A situation 00:49:28.679 --> 00:49:31.679 that has just been reversed in these years. So, 00:49:31.800 --> 00:49:34.400 on the part of the Huachicón, it's a strategy 00:49:34.400 --> 00:49:38.559 of detection of... And they didn't build anything 00:49:38.559 --> 00:49:41.159 in 25 years of neoliberalism. We're going to 00:49:41.159 --> 00:49:43.719 put here important images so that we can analyze 00:49:43.719 --> 00:49:48.340 them. Here's just the geological waste. y cómo 00:49:48.340 --> 00:49:51.519 ha caído justo los campos maduros. ¿Sí viste 00:49:51.519 --> 00:49:53.719 eso en la presentación? Claro, y también he visto 00:49:53.719 --> 00:49:55.679 cómo otros países mejoran su producción. Pues 00:49:55.679 --> 00:49:57.539 es que estamos mejorando la producción. No, te 00:49:57.539 --> 00:49:58.940 estoy hablando de que estamos en niveles de 1980. 00:49:58.940 --> 00:50:00.440 ¿Nos pueden poner la otra gráfica, por favor? 00:50:01.239 --> 00:50:04.019 Estabilización, dijo la economista. La que les 00:50:04.019 --> 00:50:05.539 mandé primero. Que venía de terapia intensiva. 00:50:05.539 --> 00:50:08.539 Para que podamos ver. Mira nada más. Se recupera 00:50:08.539 --> 00:50:11.539 la capacidad de refinación. Para que un país... 00:50:11.840 --> 00:50:14.500 In reality, it has performance. A country that 00:50:14.500 --> 00:50:17.000 is an oil producer, that extracts oil, can have 00:50:17.000 --> 00:50:19.639 economic performance from that economic process. 00:50:19.639 --> 00:50:22.099 It implies that it can transform it into gasoline. 00:50:22.239 --> 00:50:24.400 Here we are seeing in this graph how we reverse 00:50:24.400 --> 00:50:28.960 just the fall in refining. Why? Because the refinery 00:50:28.960 --> 00:50:30.760 Olmeca was made, because Deer Park was bought, 00:50:30.760 --> 00:50:32.239 and above all because it was invested, which 00:50:32.239 --> 00:50:35.139 is what you were asking, in the national refining 00:50:35.139 --> 00:50:37.170 system. I was asking? Well, you said that the 00:50:37.170 --> 00:50:39.550 investment was necessary. Why not? We are clearly 00:50:39.550 --> 00:50:42.050 improving the numbers. We are clearly improving 00:50:42.050 --> 00:50:48.389 the numbers. In 1980, where 1 ,936 ,000 barrels 00:50:48.389 --> 00:50:50.269 were produced daily, due to geological waste, 00:50:50.269 --> 00:50:52.289 because it was not invested at the time of discovery. 00:50:52.309 --> 00:50:55.670 I also read it in reports. It goes away with 00:50:55.670 --> 00:50:58.230 the investments. We would have to expand the 00:50:58.230 --> 00:50:59.650 perspective there, because we have to remember 00:50:59.650 --> 00:51:00.630 that in Mexico... There was no investment because 00:51:00.630 --> 00:51:03.670 they took out PMX. No, Mexico... In time of Salinas 00:51:03.670 --> 00:51:16.650 and in time of Ford. Salinas, Fox, Calderón, 00:51:16.650 --> 00:51:20.070 Peña. One at a time because then the audience 00:51:20.070 --> 00:51:25.809 gets upset. No, I just want to remember that 00:51:25.809 --> 00:51:30.369 between 2006 and 2009, during the government 00:51:30.369 --> 00:51:33.670 of Felipe Calderón, the numbers of daily oil 00:51:33.670 --> 00:51:36.389 production Se ajustaron por contenido de agua, 00:51:36.469 --> 00:51:40.110 Paul. Estaban maquilladas. Entonces, esto fue 00:51:40.110 --> 00:51:42.309 una investigación que se hizo en una revista 00:51:42.309 --> 00:51:46.230 que se llama Fortuna. El Inegi reportó un ajuste 00:51:46.230 --> 00:51:48.369 en las cifras de producción cuando el número 00:51:48.369 --> 00:51:51.250 de barriles diarios pasó de 3 .3 millones de 00:51:51.250 --> 00:51:54.489 barriles a 2 .6 millones de barriles para el 00:51:54.489 --> 00:51:57.829 cierre de 2009. No voy a comparar ya 25 años 00:51:57.829 --> 00:52:01.429 o 30. El año pasado, contra este, hubo un 7 % 00:52:01.429 --> 00:52:04.159 de reducción. In one year. Of what? Do you like 00:52:04.159 --> 00:52:08.440 it? Yes, because they were adjusting projects. 00:52:08.780 --> 00:52:14.599 And how did Levita grow? And how did the profits 00:52:14.599 --> 00:52:18.860 grow? There is a criticism. There is a neoliberal 00:52:18.860 --> 00:52:21.239 criticism. How did the profits grow? Compare 00:52:21.239 --> 00:52:24.599 what you want. There is a historical explanation. 00:52:25.019 --> 00:52:29.599 Remember that Mexico comes from a first industrialization 00:52:29.599 --> 00:52:33.179 process since the 30s. precisamente la fundación 00:52:33.179 --> 00:52:37.679 de todo este proceso. El milagro mexicano, de 00:52:37.679 --> 00:52:41.639 1939 a 1970, hubo un crecimiento promedio del 00:52:41.639 --> 00:52:45.880 país de 6 .6%. Es un país que está expandiendo 00:52:45.880 --> 00:52:48.400 sus capacidades industriales, que está fortaleciendo 00:52:48.400 --> 00:52:51.940 todo esto, y que precisamente el problema del 00:52:51.940 --> 00:52:54.079 neoliberalismo fue que puso freno a ese modelo. 00:52:54.300 --> 00:52:56.420 Claro que habíamos llegado a otras capacidades 00:52:56.420 --> 00:52:57.639 industriales. ¿Pero por qué tenemos menos que 00:52:57.639 --> 00:52:59.539 el año pasado? Estamos en el proceso de reindustrialización. 00:52:59.800 --> 00:53:31.239 No, pues estamos en un proceso... It's a process. 00:53:30.480 --> 00:53:33.079 pero mal, mal, mal calificado. Ya la rankearon 00:53:33.079 --> 00:53:35.619 bien. Regresamos a los mercados financieros internacionales. 00:53:35.619 --> 00:53:38.119 Aquí lo dijimos, ¿no? Varias veces. A los contratos 00:53:38.119 --> 00:53:40.639 con privados también. Que bueno, en el reporte 00:53:40.639 --> 00:53:42.579 vienen siete grandes contratos con privados que 00:53:42.579 --> 00:53:45.239 fueron satanizados. Claudio nos estaba mencionando. 00:53:45.239 --> 00:53:47.519 Pero fueron satanizados. Pero ya se re -direccionaron. 00:53:47.940 --> 00:53:52.019 Porque la reforma del Peña. No, no, no. Eran 00:53:52.019 --> 00:53:53.780 satanizados. Y que como que el privado va a entrar. 00:53:54.079 --> 00:53:59.239 No, no, no. Era que se llamaran la mayor parte 00:53:59.239 --> 00:54:05.610 de la sociedad. The problem was that they kept 00:54:05.610 --> 00:54:09.489 most of it and didn't leave much to Pemex. Now 00:54:09.489 --> 00:54:11.829 the conditions are more equitable. The problem 00:54:11.829 --> 00:54:15.030 is that they indebted Pemex with projects that 00:54:15.030 --> 00:54:17.409 they didn't realize, that they didn't conclude, 00:54:17.989 --> 00:54:22.110 that they sold later, and that there was a black 00:54:22.110 --> 00:54:26.110 market of invoices that indebted the oil company 00:54:26.110 --> 00:54:39.480 and left it in therapy. Intensive. Intensive. 00:54:39.519 --> 00:54:50.000 Intensive. Intensive. Sí, pero la base de comparación 00:54:50.000 --> 00:54:53.619 cambia. Por eso el INEGI tuvo que ajustar las 00:54:53.619 --> 00:54:56.559 cifras que tú estás analizando con un espectro 00:54:56.559 --> 00:55:00.880 que debe ponderarse, Paul. Los gobiernos del 00:55:00.880 --> 00:55:03.380 PAN decían que iban a construir refinerías y 00:55:03.380 --> 00:55:05.659 nada más compraban terrenos. Y no hacían nada 00:55:05.659 --> 00:55:08.719 más que una barra. No, ese es el problema. Con 00:55:08.719 --> 00:55:13.159 todos los excedentes que hubo y no invirtieron 00:55:13.159 --> 00:55:16.199 un centavo. Sí, no, es un proceso estructural 00:55:16.199 --> 00:55:18.309 una vez más. Obviamente que aquí And what it 00:55:18.309 --> 00:55:20.869 implies and what is important to remember this 00:55:20.869 --> 00:55:24.250 night is that given the international conditions, 00:55:24.250 --> 00:55:27.949 energy sovereignty is a number one essential 00:55:27.949 --> 00:55:30.690 for what we are seeing. In addition, because 00:55:30.690 --> 00:55:33.190 this has important consequences also for the 00:55:33.190 --> 00:55:36.670 possibility of food sovereignty. I mean particularly 00:55:36.670 --> 00:55:40.690 to the production of fertilizers, to production 00:55:40.690 --> 00:55:43.869 in general, that is, to have petrochemical, to 00:55:43.869 --> 00:55:46.789 expand and transform the energy matrix also. 00:55:47.079 --> 00:55:50.000 que es un plan a mediano y largo plazo. Pero 00:55:50.000 --> 00:55:52.639 bueno, en fin, hay una serie de elementos que 00:55:52.639 --> 00:55:55.679 hay que seguir tomando nota. Pues ha sido un 00:55:55.679 --> 00:55:59.559 gusto haber estado esta noche dialogando. Muchísimas 00:55:59.559 --> 00:56:02.159 gracias a todas y todos los que nos escuchan 00:56:02.159 --> 00:56:05.559 también en casa. Esto es Macio Zare. Esta fue 00:56:05.559 --> 00:56:09.159 la Mesa de Economía y Política. Y, por supuesto, 00:56:09.280 --> 00:56:11.920 déjenos sus comentarios. Estaremos gustosos de 00:56:11.920 --> 00:56:27.949 leerlos. Muy buenas noches. Esto fue una producción 00:56:27.949 --> 00:56:29.909 de Canal 11 y Canal 29.