WEBVTT 00:00:06.830 --> 00:00:10.509 This is the Decarbonisation Dialogue, a podcast 00:00:10.509 --> 00:00:13.830 from Salix. Welcome to Delivering on Climate 00:00:13.830 --> 00:00:16.850 Change, our collective challenge, Decarbonisation 00:00:16.850 --> 00:00:19.789 Dialogue. I am Hannah Walker, and I believe that 00:00:19.789 --> 00:00:22.230 the best way to communicate a message is by being 00:00:22.230 --> 00:00:24.070 passionate about what you are talking about. 00:00:24.250 --> 00:00:26.649 Through that passion, I believe you take people 00:00:26.649 --> 00:00:29.449 with you and create action using your influence 00:00:29.449 --> 00:00:33.250 to make change and make a difference. My guest 00:00:33.250 --> 00:00:35.729 today is Professor Peter Cox, who is Director 00:00:35.729 --> 00:00:38.329 of the Global Systems Institute at the University 00:00:38.329 --> 00:00:41.329 of Exeter. The Global Systems Institute aims 00:00:41.329 --> 00:00:43.609 to be thought leading in understanding global 00:00:43.609 --> 00:00:46.329 changes, solving global challenges and helping 00:00:46.329 --> 00:00:48.509 create a future world through transformative 00:00:48.509 --> 00:00:52.750 research, education, impact and engagement. As 00:00:52.750 --> 00:00:55.450 well as his role with the Global Systems Institute, 00:00:55.649 --> 00:00:57.990 Professor Peter Cox is Professor of Climate Systems 00:00:57.990 --> 00:01:00.270 Dynamics and Mathematics at the University of 00:01:00.270 --> 00:01:02.740 Exeter. He has previously worked at the Met Office 00:01:02.740 --> 00:01:05.500 Hadley Centre and the UK Centre for Ecology and 00:01:05.500 --> 00:01:08.700 Hydrology. He is an international leader in understanding 00:01:08.700 --> 00:01:11.459 of interactions between the land biosphere and 00:01:11.459 --> 00:01:15.040 climate change. Professor Cox is also lead author 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:17.480 on the fourth, fifth and sixth assessment reports 00:01:17.480 --> 00:01:20.159 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 00:01:20.159 --> 00:01:22.680 and a member of the UK government's DEFRA Scientific 00:01:22.680 --> 00:01:25.760 Advisory Council. He has been named as a highly 00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:28.500 cited author by Thomson Reuters for every year. 00:01:28.859 --> 00:01:34.019 from 2014 onwards. From 2006, he's been driving 00:01:34.019 --> 00:01:36.400 the development of world -leading climate research 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:39.239 at the University of Exeter. So it's fantastic 00:01:39.239 --> 00:01:42.760 to have Professor Peter Cox with me today. Thank 00:01:42.760 --> 00:01:45.739 you, Peter, for joining us. No problem, Senna. 00:01:45.819 --> 00:01:48.359 Thank you. So we're going to go straight to our 00:01:48.359 --> 00:01:50.879 first question because I'm intrigued. I'd love 00:01:50.879 --> 00:01:53.060 to know a little bit more about your career. 00:01:53.280 --> 00:01:55.299 You're a highly successful author and an expert 00:01:55.299 --> 00:01:57.640 in climate change and science and have led global 00:01:57.640 --> 00:02:01.120 research with big impact. How did you get to 00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:05.799 where you are today and why climate? Mostly where 00:02:05.799 --> 00:02:09.300 you get to is luck, I think. I actually started 00:02:09.300 --> 00:02:12.580 out as a physicist. I was working on, well, I 00:02:12.580 --> 00:02:14.240 got very interested in physics when I stopped 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:16.250 being so interested in cricket. although I never 00:02:16.250 --> 00:02:18.189 stopped being so interested in cricket, but got 00:02:18.189 --> 00:02:19.750 very interested in physics. And then I did a 00:02:19.750 --> 00:02:23.629 degree in physics and I did a PhD in plasma physics. 00:02:23.710 --> 00:02:25.750 I was working on nuclear fusion research in the 00:02:25.750 --> 00:02:28.090 day. Believe it or not, Hannah, we thought we 00:02:28.090 --> 00:02:29.490 were going to run out of fossil fuels when I 00:02:29.490 --> 00:02:32.050 was doing my PhD in the mid 80s. I was doing 00:02:32.050 --> 00:02:33.770 it not because I thought climate change was a 00:02:33.770 --> 00:02:35.509 problem, but because I thought we were going 00:02:35.509 --> 00:02:36.930 to run out of fossil fuels and run out of energy. 00:02:37.509 --> 00:02:39.789 And so by the time I got to the end of my PhD, 00:02:39.870 --> 00:02:43.599 which was late 80s. the climate change agenda 00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:46.080 had emerged and i thought this is fantastic from 00:02:46.080 --> 00:02:49.099 a i was one of these scientists who was not good 00:02:49.099 --> 00:02:52.259 in the lab so i became a theorist almost by default 00:02:52.259 --> 00:02:54.080 really because i used to break stuff in the lab 00:02:54.080 --> 00:02:57.879 so when i went to um uh when i finished my phd 00:02:57.879 --> 00:02:59.699 the climate change issue came up and it was a 00:02:59.699 --> 00:03:01.900 modeling problem was a mathematical modeling 00:03:01.900 --> 00:03:03.539 problem i thought it's very exciting so i went 00:03:03.539 --> 00:03:05.719 to the metaverse hadley center at that stage 00:03:05.719 --> 00:03:09.180 with basically no knowledge of I was a physicist 00:03:09.180 --> 00:03:11.180 with very little knowledge of trees and plants 00:03:11.180 --> 00:03:14.120 and ecosystems. And as they did in those days 00:03:14.120 --> 00:03:16.039 at the Met Office, they said, well, you think 00:03:16.039 --> 00:03:17.879 you're a bright guy. Go and do something you've 00:03:17.879 --> 00:03:21.340 not been qualified to do, weirdly. So I got put 00:03:21.340 --> 00:03:23.599 on modelling vegetation and the carbon cycle. 00:03:23.919 --> 00:03:26.120 And that's where I started my career and had 00:03:26.120 --> 00:03:28.280 a great team there. And it's gone from there, 00:03:28.319 --> 00:03:32.500 really. So a lot of kind of, I suppose everyone's 00:03:32.500 --> 00:03:34.000 career is a bit like this. There's a lot of sort 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:38.849 of random turns in a way. And you end up hopefully 00:03:38.849 --> 00:03:42.870 in a nice place. So to talking about climate, 00:03:42.949 --> 00:03:45.430 we're not talking about something new here. So 00:03:45.430 --> 00:03:48.349 but we are looking at massive challenges as we 00:03:48.349 --> 00:03:52.030 face climate change, not least of the very threat 00:03:52.030 --> 00:03:55.050 to humanity. Why can't we all agree on what is 00:03:55.050 --> 00:03:57.849 happening to our planet? Because the way I see 00:03:57.849 --> 00:03:59.969 it, you know, we switch on the news every day. 00:04:00.069 --> 00:04:03.590 Climate is in the news. The need for action has 00:04:03.590 --> 00:04:08.139 never been more urgent. What changes we're looking 00:04:08.139 --> 00:04:09.900 at? I mean, what is happening to our planet? 00:04:10.699 --> 00:04:12.460 Yeah, well, so the headline figure is always 00:04:12.460 --> 00:04:14.259 that the planet is warming and has warmed quite 00:04:14.259 --> 00:04:17.720 significantly. By about, well, the last year, 00:04:17.800 --> 00:04:20.199 2024, was the hottest year on record globally. 00:04:20.800 --> 00:04:23.639 2023 was the previous record. Previous eight 00:04:23.639 --> 00:04:25.560 records are all the previous eight years before 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:28.079 it. Not in order, but the last 10 years on record 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:30.199 are the warmest. So we know the climate changing. 00:04:30.319 --> 00:04:33.000 We've actually had the science of this. Since 00:04:33.000 --> 00:04:34.740 the 19th century, actually, we've understood 00:04:34.740 --> 00:04:37.199 the concept of greenhouse gases and we know carbon 00:04:37.199 --> 00:04:38.680 dioxide is going up because of fossil fuels. 00:04:38.899 --> 00:04:42.259 So we know the climate changing. We know and 00:04:42.259 --> 00:04:43.839 we're getting more and more circumstantial evidence 00:04:43.839 --> 00:04:47.040 that at least increasing weather extremes. So 00:04:47.040 --> 00:04:49.660 if you warm up the climate, you tend to get more 00:04:49.660 --> 00:04:51.759 water in the atmosphere. That means when it does 00:04:51.759 --> 00:04:54.060 rain, it rains heavier. It also means when it's 00:04:54.060 --> 00:04:56.620 not raining, it evaporates faster. So you get 00:04:56.620 --> 00:04:58.839 an intensification of the hydrological cycle, 00:04:58.939 --> 00:05:00.560 which means you get more floods and droughts, 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:03.259 bizarrely, both of them. And so there's bigger 00:05:03.259 --> 00:05:06.199 and bigger impacts on people. And at the same 00:05:06.199 --> 00:05:08.060 time, the climate change is as clear as it could 00:05:08.060 --> 00:05:12.339 possibly be. We have the reemergence of scepticism, 00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:15.160 especially in the US, but with the US goes everyone 00:05:15.160 --> 00:05:18.279 else. So it is a very weird world we live in 00:05:18.279 --> 00:05:22.259 at the moment. But it feels like if I'm in my 00:05:22.259 --> 00:05:25.040 optimistic mood, Hannah, I'd say I hope it's 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:27.910 the death throes of climate denialism. because 00:05:27.910 --> 00:05:29.649 it seems such a weird thing to be doing that 00:05:29.649 --> 00:05:32.810 right now when it's so obviously wrong. But people 00:05:32.810 --> 00:05:35.509 can be misled by the fact the media is controlled 00:05:35.509 --> 00:05:38.470 by very few people, but by people who can buy 00:05:38.470 --> 00:05:41.790 bits of the media. So we're in a dangerous situation, 00:05:42.009 --> 00:05:43.670 but I'm hoping it's a short -term thing as we 00:05:43.670 --> 00:05:46.730 make that transition towards basically a net 00:05:46.730 --> 00:05:49.189 zero world or something like it. Yeah, I certainly 00:05:49.189 --> 00:05:52.629 do want to touch on the idea that we've got to 00:05:52.629 --> 00:05:55.860 be positive, but also... we are facing serious 00:05:55.860 --> 00:05:58.660 times. And when you talk about that global warming, 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:01.680 you talked about 2023 being a record, and then 00:06:01.680 --> 00:06:04.800 we moved to 2024 and that hit a new record. So 00:06:04.800 --> 00:06:08.220 what is that? We see it in the news, we see flooding, 00:06:08.420 --> 00:06:11.279 we see drought, we see these extremes, as you 00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:14.180 say. Tell me a little bit about that measurement. 00:06:14.740 --> 00:06:19.129 I mean, is there an answer to net zero? Net zero, 00:06:19.350 --> 00:06:21.589 will reaching net zero, we have rather a lot 00:06:21.589 --> 00:06:23.670 of targets, we can also talk about that, but 00:06:23.670 --> 00:06:27.329 will reaching net zero solve the climate change 00:06:27.329 --> 00:06:30.189 issue? It will stop climate change to a very 00:06:30.189 --> 00:06:33.310 high accuracy. It's a really interesting thing 00:06:33.310 --> 00:06:35.629 that when I started my career in the early 90s, 00:06:35.629 --> 00:06:38.110 we always knew the climate problem was difficult. 00:06:38.149 --> 00:06:40.069 And I was working on vegetation, the climate 00:06:40.069 --> 00:06:42.069 system, there was all sorts of issues to do with. 00:06:42.509 --> 00:06:44.589 whether climate change might kill forests like 00:06:44.589 --> 00:06:46.310 the amazon forest and i worked on that for a 00:06:46.310 --> 00:06:49.149 long time but something emerged in 2009 from 00:06:49.149 --> 00:06:50.730 a number of studies which is quite remarkable 00:06:50.730 --> 00:06:54.329 like a lifeline for humanity really for understanding 00:06:54.329 --> 00:06:57.050 the problem so it turns out despite all the complexity 00:06:57.050 --> 00:06:59.230 of the weather and all the complexity of the 00:06:59.230 --> 00:07:02.850 earth system if you plot the total emissions 00:07:02.850 --> 00:07:05.490 that have been produced from fossil fuels and 00:07:05.490 --> 00:07:08.750 deforestation since about 1850 against global 00:07:08.750 --> 00:07:11.540 warming it's a lovely straight line And that 00:07:11.540 --> 00:07:13.600 means that there's that's where the concept of 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:15.980 net zero comes from. If you stop emitting CO2, 00:07:16.180 --> 00:07:19.420 you pretty much stop global warming. When you 00:07:19.420 --> 00:07:21.319 stop global warming, you stop most of the impacts 00:07:21.319 --> 00:07:23.800 of climate change. So it's an approximation is 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:25.959 a very good one. And it's an extraordinary simplification, 00:07:26.139 --> 00:07:29.220 really. I mean, if when it was first published 00:07:29.220 --> 00:07:31.959 and I unfortunately I wasn't on the papers, but 00:07:31.959 --> 00:07:33.759 I thought this is ridiculous. It's too simple. 00:07:34.040 --> 00:07:36.279 Can't be like that. But it does turn out to play 00:07:36.279 --> 00:07:38.339 out like that. And we can see that in models 00:07:38.339 --> 00:07:41.589 as well. to a very good approximation, if we 00:07:41.589 --> 00:07:43.370 get to net zero, and it's easier said than done, 00:07:43.430 --> 00:07:47.149 but if we get to net zero, we will stop 90 % 00:07:47.149 --> 00:07:49.370 climate change, maybe a bit more than that. Okay. 00:07:49.449 --> 00:07:51.769 So in terms of simplification, because I'm not 00:07:51.769 --> 00:07:55.490 a scientist, but to keep global warming, where 00:07:55.490 --> 00:07:59.610 are we? No more than 1 .5. Is that the figure 00:07:59.610 --> 00:08:04.290 at the moment? Well, that was the aspirational 00:08:04.290 --> 00:08:05.670 figure that came out of the Paris Agreement. 00:08:05.889 --> 00:08:08.410 Two was always the upper limit. At the moment, 00:08:08.779 --> 00:08:11.300 um well so if you look at the individual year 00:08:11.300 --> 00:08:15.180 2024 was hotter than 1 .5 compared to pre -industrial 00:08:15.180 --> 00:08:17.680 now the way you can say that that doesn't mean 00:08:17.680 --> 00:08:19.759 that paris the lower limit paris has been broken 00:08:19.759 --> 00:08:21.800 as you think about longer term averages when 00:08:21.800 --> 00:08:24.079 you think about the climate so in five year averages 00:08:24.079 --> 00:08:26.660 we're probably more like 1 .3 similar to 1 .3 00:08:26.660 --> 00:08:30.120 and 1 .4 but it's very unlikely we're going to 00:08:30.120 --> 00:08:33.100 avoid 1 .5 degrees now you know even if you take 00:08:33.100 --> 00:08:35.039 five year averages we're going to probably burst 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:37.639 through it so 1 .5 And it was never intended 00:08:37.639 --> 00:08:41.059 to be an upper limit, but 1 .5, avoiding 1 .5 00:08:41.059 --> 00:08:45.159 is not going to happen now. So we are far from 00:08:45.159 --> 00:08:47.960 where we need to be right now, today. For 1 .5, 00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:50.799 yeah, I mean, it really depends. The limit that 00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:53.539 was set at the Copenhagen COP, which was in 2009, 00:08:53.840 --> 00:08:57.480 which defined dangerous climate change, believe 00:08:57.480 --> 00:08:58.960 it or not, was two degrees of global warming. 00:08:59.950 --> 00:09:01.730 And that's the one that you were not supposed 00:09:01.730 --> 00:09:04.570 to exceed, right, with Paris. At the moment, 00:09:04.629 --> 00:09:06.629 the current commitments from governments would 00:09:06.629 --> 00:09:08.330 take us way beyond two degrees. So the bigger 00:09:08.330 --> 00:09:11.210 issue for me, at least, is we're going to crash 00:09:11.210 --> 00:09:13.289 through 1 .5. The world will not end, but it 00:09:13.289 --> 00:09:15.610 will get harder. But we mustn't crash through 00:09:15.610 --> 00:09:17.429 two. And that needs a lot more work than we're 00:09:17.429 --> 00:09:19.389 currently doing collectively across the globe. 00:09:20.370 --> 00:09:24.210 And let's talk for a moment about the Global 00:09:24.210 --> 00:09:28.080 Systems Institute. What role? What is the role 00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:30.679 of the Global Systems Institute and what next 00:09:30.679 --> 00:09:34.179 for the climate research? We are facing so many 00:09:34.179 --> 00:09:36.580 challenges in today's world, aren't we? Geopolitical 00:09:36.580 --> 00:09:40.080 strife, we're facing famine, we're facing war, 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:45.179 we're still recovering from the pandemic. So 00:09:45.179 --> 00:09:49.740 what is the role in terms of the GSI going next? 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:54.419 Yeah, so the GSI, I mean, it's a very... It's 00:09:54.419 --> 00:09:56.840 quite a difficult term to define. What we've 00:09:56.840 --> 00:09:58.820 done since I've been director is basically say 00:09:58.820 --> 00:10:01.179 we're centred on the climate problem. It's a 00:10:01.179 --> 00:10:02.960 systems institute in the sense that we want to 00:10:02.960 --> 00:10:04.519 connect that to everything that might affect 00:10:04.519 --> 00:10:07.179 it or be affected by it. Because climate is so 00:10:07.179 --> 00:10:10.139 ubiquitous and so central to everything, it pretty 00:10:10.139 --> 00:10:12.399 much gives us a free reign to do anything. But 00:10:12.399 --> 00:10:14.399 it is centred on the climate problem. So there 00:10:14.399 --> 00:10:16.580 are issues obviously connected to human wellbeing 00:10:16.580 --> 00:10:18.919 and health. There are issues associated with 00:10:18.919 --> 00:10:22.120 technology and renewable energy and carbon capture. 00:10:23.039 --> 00:10:24.919 maybe even radical things like geoengineering. 00:10:24.960 --> 00:10:27.820 There's issues to do with equity because climate 00:10:27.820 --> 00:10:29.500 change says to hit the people at least responsible 00:10:29.500 --> 00:10:32.460 hardest. So it connects us. There's issues to 00:10:32.460 --> 00:10:34.059 do with the economy. How do you transform your 00:10:34.059 --> 00:10:37.120 economy to be a low -carbon economy without affecting 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:41.500 people's well -being? So we are centred on the 00:10:41.500 --> 00:10:42.840 climate problem, but we're very interested in 00:10:42.840 --> 00:10:44.259 these connections, and we believe the connections 00:10:44.259 --> 00:10:48.639 are key because they imply what we might call 00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:51.769 emergent properties. things about the total system 00:10:51.769 --> 00:10:53.350 that you can't get from the individual parts. 00:10:53.610 --> 00:10:55.889 And you might think of the Industrial Revolution 00:10:55.889 --> 00:10:57.570 and climate change as one of those things. You 00:10:57.570 --> 00:11:01.110 know, the tipping point was in the use of fossil 00:11:01.110 --> 00:11:05.429 fuels to fuel an economy and steam engines and 00:11:05.429 --> 00:11:08.169 so on. And then it led to these unexpected consequences. 00:11:08.529 --> 00:11:11.289 So anyway, cut to the chase. The GSI is interested 00:11:11.289 --> 00:11:13.870 in interactions. We're also very interested in 00:11:13.870 --> 00:11:15.690 emerging properties like things called tipping 00:11:15.690 --> 00:11:18.379 points. You've probably heard about these. abrupt 00:11:18.379 --> 00:11:20.799 changes so in the climate system there are some 00:11:20.799 --> 00:11:23.720 we can see them in the historical record in the 00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:27.879 past the uh the atlantic meridional ocean circulation 00:11:27.879 --> 00:11:30.740 which keeps us warm has shut down and we're concerned 00:11:30.740 --> 00:11:33.240 it might in the future we're also concerned that 00:11:33.240 --> 00:11:37.620 um warming especially in a lot um because the 00:11:37.620 --> 00:11:40.279 greenhouse gases could lead to amazon's getting 00:11:40.279 --> 00:11:41.919 dry and dying back and there are a number of 00:11:41.919 --> 00:11:43.519 other things that we worry about so there are 00:11:43.519 --> 00:11:46.210 these assisting tipping points we major on but 00:11:46.210 --> 00:11:48.230 what we've lately been realizing is that there 00:11:48.230 --> 00:11:51.090 are huge tipping points on non -linearities abrupt 00:11:51.090 --> 00:11:53.789 changes in the human realm and they're the ones 00:11:53.789 --> 00:11:56.750 some of those we need to stimulate to make a 00:11:56.750 --> 00:11:59.909 transition to more um sustainable ways of operating 00:11:59.909 --> 00:12:02.669 so what we're doing in the gsi amongst other 00:12:02.669 --> 00:12:05.210 things is to say we now understand these abrupt 00:12:05.210 --> 00:12:07.070 changes and we're scared of some of them want 00:12:07.070 --> 00:12:09.190 to avoid them there are other abrupt changes 00:12:09.190 --> 00:12:11.149 that would get us onto a more sustainable path 00:12:11.929 --> 00:12:13.889 we might want to use they might be transitions 00:12:13.889 --> 00:12:16.389 that we can use and i think what we're seeing 00:12:16.389 --> 00:12:18.149 in the world you know coming back to the question 00:12:18.149 --> 00:12:21.230 we were discussing earlier with these weird political 00:12:21.230 --> 00:12:26.409 um socio -political flip -flops are also kind 00:12:26.409 --> 00:12:29.549 of non -linearities and tipping points that um 00:12:29.549 --> 00:12:32.350 that in principle can be frozen in one way or 00:12:32.350 --> 00:12:34.549 the other so when you get to an instability in 00:12:34.549 --> 00:12:36.289 the system and it could go two ways you get to 00:12:36.289 --> 00:12:38.250 choose actually if you know about it you get 00:12:38.250 --> 00:12:40.929 to choose and so we are studying what we call 00:12:40.929 --> 00:12:42.509 positive tipping points, which are things where 00:12:42.509 --> 00:12:46.570 you might say, at this point, maybe an injection 00:12:46.570 --> 00:12:49.809 of something like a little bit of money or incentive 00:12:49.809 --> 00:12:52.289 could flip it to the other state. And that means 00:12:52.289 --> 00:12:53.789 that we'd be in a position where we could take 00:12:53.789 --> 00:12:56.769 a systems view, not just in order to avoid these 00:12:56.769 --> 00:12:59.309 horrible non -linearities, but use the non -linearities 00:12:59.309 --> 00:13:01.769 to make a change. And that's one of the things 00:13:01.769 --> 00:13:04.669 we're doing at the GSI. Other things too, but 00:13:04.669 --> 00:13:11.179 that's one of the things. climate change should 00:13:11.179 --> 00:13:14.279 unite the world, shouldn't it? It's not just 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:17.059 an issue we're facing here in the UK. And although 00:13:17.059 --> 00:13:20.759 we can move forward and we make, to a large extent, 00:13:20.820 --> 00:13:22.480 we're making great strides on the green energy 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:24.840 front and looking at new technologies, but it's 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:28.470 a global issue. If you were to look at... countries 00:13:28.470 --> 00:13:31.330 overseas like India? I mean, India has made huge 00:13:31.330 --> 00:13:34.909 strides in solar power and China, China also 00:13:34.909 --> 00:13:38.490 looking at solar and wind. Where would you look 00:13:38.490 --> 00:13:42.250 to? Because we are, I mean, are we in the UK, 00:13:42.330 --> 00:13:45.370 are we leading, would you say, or are we trailing 00:13:45.370 --> 00:13:47.769 behind, especially when you look at countries 00:13:47.769 --> 00:13:50.610 like India and China and their work with solar 00:13:50.610 --> 00:13:54.190 and wind? Yeah, I mean, I think we've, our record 00:13:54.190 --> 00:13:56.250 on carbon emissions production is actually pretty 00:13:56.250 --> 00:13:58.460 good in the UK. And other European countries 00:13:58.460 --> 00:14:01.279 hold us up as a good example of how you can do 00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:02.960 things like the Climate Change Committee. And 00:14:02.960 --> 00:14:05.299 actually, we've been lucky in the sense that 00:14:05.299 --> 00:14:07.480 successive governments have not denied climate 00:14:07.480 --> 00:14:09.220 change. You might argue we've gone slower than 00:14:09.220 --> 00:14:11.320 we could, but there's generally been good progress. 00:14:11.379 --> 00:14:14.879 So on the big picture, maybe because we're fortunate 00:14:14.879 --> 00:14:17.100 and we've not got an economy that's growing really 00:14:17.100 --> 00:14:19.299 fast, we're doing well. Where the emissions are 00:14:19.299 --> 00:14:21.299 growing, it's either because there's not been 00:14:21.299 --> 00:14:24.120 action on getting to more sustainable ways of 00:14:24.120 --> 00:14:25.820 doing things, moving to renewable energy, for 00:14:25.820 --> 00:14:28.120 example. All the economies are growing quickly, 00:14:28.200 --> 00:14:30.539 and that's true of India and China. So Chinese 00:14:30.539 --> 00:14:32.620 emissions have grown, but they are much faster 00:14:32.620 --> 00:14:35.679 to make a transition than we were or the US was 00:14:35.679 --> 00:14:38.440 or other developed economies were. And we hope 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:40.620 that's because we've all learned something. We 00:14:40.620 --> 00:14:43.299 now have technology that can be used and actually 00:14:43.299 --> 00:14:45.919 makes sense economically, quite apart from sustainability. 00:14:47.779 --> 00:14:49.720 So I think they are making progress, and especially 00:14:49.720 --> 00:14:53.299 in China, moving relatively quickly away from 00:14:53.299 --> 00:14:56.490 fossil fuels. were very, very fossil intensive 00:14:56.490 --> 00:14:59.110 not long ago and still are quite fossil intensive 00:14:59.110 --> 00:15:02.049 and have a huge demand for energy. So they will 00:15:02.049 --> 00:15:05.049 be key players in this. And as far as the U .S. 00:15:05.070 --> 00:15:06.750 is concerned, the U .S. is no longer the biggest 00:15:06.750 --> 00:15:10.090 emitter in the world. So we'd love them on board. 00:15:10.169 --> 00:15:13.409 But in a sense, the economies that really need 00:15:13.409 --> 00:15:14.710 to be changed are the ones that are going through 00:15:14.710 --> 00:15:16.490 the transition, the one that we did and the U 00:15:16.490 --> 00:15:19.029 .S. did and most developed European countries 00:15:19.029 --> 00:15:21.370 did on fossil fuels needs to be not done that 00:15:21.370 --> 00:15:24.190 way. And we've got the technology, so that doesn't 00:15:24.190 --> 00:15:26.330 have to be the case, actually. Yes. So do you 00:15:26.330 --> 00:15:30.350 think when we're talking about these climate 00:15:30.350 --> 00:15:35.710 issues, we're on the cusp of great technology. 00:15:35.789 --> 00:15:38.990 We're looking at other countries and seeing how 00:15:38.990 --> 00:15:41.850 they're progressing. But a lot of people like 00:15:41.850 --> 00:15:45.370 you and me, we're going about our daily lives. 00:15:45.549 --> 00:15:49.110 What do you think is the trigger to make us change 00:15:49.110 --> 00:15:52.690 our lifestyle? Government, business, big business 00:15:52.690 --> 00:15:55.889 has got to work together. But you talked about 00:15:55.889 --> 00:15:58.450 the cynicism earlier, you know, cynicism in climate 00:15:58.450 --> 00:16:02.330 change. How do you get everybody else involved 00:16:02.330 --> 00:16:05.669 in this conversation? Yeah, I mean, I think... 00:16:05.669 --> 00:16:10.690 Without it becoming this huge catastrophe. Yeah, 00:16:10.789 --> 00:16:13.409 that's one of the problems. Doomism also turns 00:16:13.409 --> 00:16:15.269 people off, except some people who get extremely 00:16:15.269 --> 00:16:18.500 depressed by it and frozen into inaction. We 00:16:18.500 --> 00:16:20.019 have to keep in mind that things can be done. 00:16:20.080 --> 00:16:23.899 It isn't rocket science in the sense we sort 00:16:23.899 --> 00:16:25.779 of know what needs to be done, right? We've got 00:16:25.779 --> 00:16:28.080 all the tools we need to a large extent to do 00:16:28.080 --> 00:16:31.519 this stuff. We know that the transition to electrifying 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:34.059 our economy is one way to do it, but we've also 00:16:34.059 --> 00:16:40.340 got economic barriers to that. So things that 00:16:40.340 --> 00:16:41.840 are unsustainable are often cheaper than things 00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:44.080 that are sustainable even now. You know, electricity 00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:45.779 is much more expensive than natural gas if you 00:16:45.779 --> 00:16:47.419 want to heat your home, which is kind of ridiculous. 00:16:48.299 --> 00:16:51.200 We've got a situation where flying, which does 00:16:51.200 --> 00:16:52.659 a lot more damage to the environment, is much 00:16:52.659 --> 00:16:54.600 more extensive than train travel. This is absurd, 00:16:54.740 --> 00:16:56.940 right? And in our university, we're now even 00:16:56.940 --> 00:16:59.059 trying to get a levy on flights from our own 00:16:59.059 --> 00:17:01.639 staff so we can subsidise their train travel. 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:04.480 But it is bizarre that organisations have to 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:06.160 do it on their own and it's not being done anyway. 00:17:06.380 --> 00:17:09.119 It just feels like there is a will, but not enough 00:17:09.119 --> 00:17:11.440 to fiddle with the economy. Never enough to fiddle 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:14.960 with the economy. So I do think there's two things. 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:17.279 One is an education thing, so you have to keep. 00:17:18.579 --> 00:17:21.660 the issue on the agenda without it becoming doom 00:17:21.660 --> 00:17:26.279 -laden and very much associated with a better 00:17:26.279 --> 00:17:28.259 way of living, really. So we want better air 00:17:28.259 --> 00:17:30.660 quality, even if people couldn't care less about 00:17:30.660 --> 00:17:33.039 climate change. They do care about the air they 00:17:33.039 --> 00:17:34.920 breathe. They do care about the water they drink. 00:17:34.980 --> 00:17:36.880 And these things are all connected with how we 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:40.420 fuel our economies. So I think there's that. 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:43.000 The other thing is there is a positive tipping 00:17:43.000 --> 00:17:46.430 point in social networks, right? Why do we all 00:17:46.430 --> 00:17:49.470 recycle now when we didn't 20 years ago? It's 00:17:49.470 --> 00:17:51.630 because all our neighbours are doing it and we 00:17:51.630 --> 00:17:53.930 can see them doing it. And you feel guilty when 00:17:53.930 --> 00:17:57.009 you don't. So there is a social tipping point 00:17:57.009 --> 00:18:00.529 that can work in our favour. But there's also 00:18:00.529 --> 00:18:03.670 vested interest associated with historical commitments 00:18:03.670 --> 00:18:05.289 to fossil fuels and other ways of doing things 00:18:05.289 --> 00:18:07.849 that will fight against that. But in the end, 00:18:07.950 --> 00:18:10.769 I think the number of people that are connected, 00:18:10.990 --> 00:18:12.730 directly connected to each other, that think 00:18:12.730 --> 00:18:15.220 of ways of doing things in a different way. We'll 00:18:15.220 --> 00:18:17.299 win. It's just whether we could do it fast enough 00:18:17.299 --> 00:18:20.099 to get it done quickly. Right. I mean, it feels 00:18:20.099 --> 00:18:21.839 like the tipping points are in our favour in 00:18:21.839 --> 00:18:24.660 that sense. Social networks are tipping points, 00:18:24.720 --> 00:18:27.579 but communication between them is still controlled 00:18:27.579 --> 00:18:30.140 by a few rich people. Right. Quite often. And 00:18:30.140 --> 00:18:32.779 that makes it more difficult. And it's that understanding, 00:18:33.000 --> 00:18:37.299 isn't it? Because when people understand, it's 00:18:37.299 --> 00:18:39.339 not just knowing about it, but it's actually. 00:18:39.900 --> 00:18:43.180 having it explained in a simple way without being 00:18:43.180 --> 00:18:47.759 patronising. It's that sharing. Because the more 00:18:47.759 --> 00:18:49.759 people understand, I suppose, the more people 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:52.740 can prepare for any risks and challenges around 00:18:52.740 --> 00:18:55.920 it as well. Yeah, I think we've done quite well 00:18:55.920 --> 00:18:58.960 in the UK in getting the issue across. I think 00:18:58.960 --> 00:19:01.519 there's another gap between that and affecting 00:19:01.519 --> 00:19:05.220 people's lifestyles. So things like dietary changes 00:19:05.220 --> 00:19:07.819 is one of the things individuals can do. It's 00:19:07.819 --> 00:19:09.720 quite hard to get across because there is a counter 00:19:09.720 --> 00:19:14.500 view that, you know, roast dinners are really, 00:19:14.559 --> 00:19:15.920 I mean, I still think roast dinners are lovely 00:19:15.920 --> 00:19:17.720 things, even though I try not to eat women and 00:19:17.720 --> 00:19:19.380 meat, I still think of them as lovely things. 00:19:19.599 --> 00:19:22.779 When I fly back into the UK, I want to see green 00:19:22.779 --> 00:19:24.440 fields, even though they're far from natural 00:19:24.440 --> 00:19:26.519 and they're not maximum carbon storage. I quite 00:19:26.519 --> 00:19:28.059 like seeing cows, even though I know they're 00:19:28.059 --> 00:19:29.819 bad for the environment. So there's very much 00:19:29.819 --> 00:19:32.059 an association with what you're used to, what 00:19:32.059 --> 00:19:33.500 makes you comfortable because it's like you're 00:19:33.500 --> 00:19:35.890 used. but some of those things need to change 00:19:35.890 --> 00:19:38.130 and that's going to take a while and it is a 00:19:38.130 --> 00:19:41.369 bit like um replacing those sort of um nostalgic 00:19:41.369 --> 00:19:44.609 views of the past with even more attractive views 00:19:44.609 --> 00:19:46.630 of the future that might even be more natural 00:19:46.630 --> 00:19:48.609 you know we'll have we'll have woodlands rather 00:19:48.609 --> 00:19:50.730 than grasslands kind of thing yes but it's quite 00:19:50.730 --> 00:19:52.490 hard to get across even for someone like me even 00:19:52.490 --> 00:19:54.609 i think fly back in uk i think it wasn't lovely 00:19:54.609 --> 00:19:56.589 to see the green and pleasant lands they're basically 00:19:56.589 --> 00:20:00.549 all farmland right yes grazing land um And doing 00:20:00.549 --> 00:20:01.930 quite a lot of damage to the environment. So 00:20:01.930 --> 00:20:03.670 it's quite a difficult thing to think up all 00:20:03.670 --> 00:20:06.710 that. You're right. It's changing the way we 00:20:06.710 --> 00:20:09.910 think and changing the norms, I suppose, because 00:20:09.910 --> 00:20:14.650 it's clearly when we look at we obviously want 00:20:14.650 --> 00:20:17.650 everybody to move forward and we need to address 00:20:17.650 --> 00:20:21.369 this issue because truly the cost of floods and 00:20:21.369 --> 00:20:24.170 droughts is costing the economy billions anyway. 00:20:24.309 --> 00:20:27.660 It's costing us across the world, isn't it? So 00:20:27.660 --> 00:20:30.200 there isn't that much longer that people can 00:20:30.200 --> 00:20:32.579 start to say, particularly world leaders can 00:20:32.579 --> 00:20:34.900 start to say this doesn't matter anymore because 00:20:34.900 --> 00:20:40.140 it's going to become too costly to bear, isn't 00:20:40.140 --> 00:20:42.180 it? The cost of climate change. It's really interesting, 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:45.259 actually, that one of the first organisations, 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:47.279 and you might think, well, this is not surprising, 00:20:47.380 --> 00:20:49.380 but the first organisation to collect good data 00:20:49.380 --> 00:20:53.099 on the impacts of changing extremes for the insurance 00:20:53.099 --> 00:20:56.799 industry, actually. responsible for insuring 00:20:56.799 --> 00:21:00.099 our homes and and and dealing with issues when 00:21:00.099 --> 00:21:01.599 we have accidents and they are more and more 00:21:01.599 --> 00:21:04.299 concerned by this so they've got really good 00:21:04.299 --> 00:21:06.559 data they can collect also on claims and also 00:21:06.559 --> 00:21:09.160 uninsured losses and they're kind of frightening 00:21:09.160 --> 00:21:12.759 so um the evidence the evidence for extremes 00:21:12.759 --> 00:21:14.940 extreme damages predominantly comes from the 00:21:14.940 --> 00:21:17.319 insurance industry because they have to keep 00:21:17.319 --> 00:21:19.079 good data to work out what the premium should 00:21:19.079 --> 00:21:22.240 be and so on and so forth so when big businesses 00:21:22.240 --> 00:21:23.920 like that get involved there's two things one 00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:26.099 is It's serious economically or else they wouldn't 00:21:26.099 --> 00:21:28.700 be doing it. And secondly, they have some leverage 00:21:28.700 --> 00:21:31.740 on things because they are an enormous part of 00:21:31.740 --> 00:21:35.240 an economy or economies worldwide. So that's 00:21:35.240 --> 00:21:37.779 a plus. And some of the organisations, insurance 00:21:37.779 --> 00:21:39.559 organisations, reinsurance organisations, have 00:21:39.559 --> 00:21:42.759 been very active in wanting an action on climate 00:21:42.759 --> 00:21:45.579 change. It's not just about driving up premiums. 00:21:45.579 --> 00:21:47.759 They want their businesses not to break because 00:21:47.759 --> 00:21:51.599 the losses get too large. So to me, that's when 00:21:51.599 --> 00:21:53.519 you know it's not purely environmental scientists 00:21:53.519 --> 00:21:56.599 like me. ringing the alarm bell too loud. These 00:21:56.599 --> 00:21:58.240 are the people ringing it loudest, the people 00:21:58.240 --> 00:22:01.920 that have an interest in, you know, insurance, 00:22:02.099 --> 00:22:04.500 and actually whether insurance is even feasible 00:22:04.500 --> 00:22:08.240 after a while. Okay, so you, though, as a scientist, 00:22:08.640 --> 00:22:11.720 what's the next trigger for climate change? We've 00:22:11.720 --> 00:22:14.680 talked about the 1 .5 figure, we've got a 2050 00:22:14.680 --> 00:22:18.089 target. We've got countries across the world 00:22:18.089 --> 00:22:20.970 looking at air and solar and all of the other 00:22:20.970 --> 00:22:23.609 types of, whether it's geothermal, all the other 00:22:23.609 --> 00:22:26.230 nuclear. For example, we've started to think 00:22:26.230 --> 00:22:28.210 again, haven't we, about the way we use nuclear 00:22:28.210 --> 00:22:31.190 in this country. So what is the next trigger, 00:22:31.210 --> 00:22:33.069 though, for climate change? What should we be 00:22:33.069 --> 00:22:37.430 looking out for next? You did mention the fact 00:22:37.430 --> 00:22:40.130 that, well, the world's not going to end tomorrow. 00:22:40.309 --> 00:22:47.529 It's not going to end. There's not a sudden answer, 00:22:47.750 --> 00:22:50.230 is there? There's no sudden result for this. 00:22:50.349 --> 00:22:52.369 But what is the next trigger? What should we 00:22:52.369 --> 00:22:55.990 be looking at in terms of climate change? So 00:22:55.990 --> 00:22:58.809 I think we've got to keep our eyes on the rising 00:22:58.809 --> 00:23:02.650 impacts in climate change and try and understand 00:23:02.650 --> 00:23:04.609 how the extremes are being affected by climate. 00:23:04.710 --> 00:23:06.890 That's happening anyway. But one of the things 00:23:06.890 --> 00:23:09.289 that are emerging at the moment is when we look 00:23:09.289 --> 00:23:11.009 like we're going to miss targets that are associated 00:23:11.009 --> 00:23:13.410 with dangerous climate change or... With the 00:23:13.410 --> 00:23:15.769 agreement what dangerous means, like 1 .5 and 00:23:15.769 --> 00:23:18.450 2, people are now thinking, and we're working 00:23:18.450 --> 00:23:20.450 on this as well, whether there are emergency 00:23:20.450 --> 00:23:23.269 measures you need to be working on. So the thing 00:23:23.269 --> 00:23:25.730 about CO2 is ultimately you've got to get greenhouse 00:23:25.730 --> 00:23:27.710 gases down if you want to stabilise the climate. 00:23:28.809 --> 00:23:30.869 But what if we can't do it fast enough and we 00:23:30.869 --> 00:23:32.549 crash through some of these targets? Would you 00:23:32.549 --> 00:23:35.210 do something else? Now, there is a really radical 00:23:35.210 --> 00:23:36.269 thing, I don't know if you've heard about this, 00:23:36.289 --> 00:23:38.390 that's called geoengineering, which is this idea 00:23:38.390 --> 00:23:40.910 that you either suck CO2 out there, which is 00:23:40.910 --> 00:23:43.599 also slow, but could be done. Or you just make 00:23:43.599 --> 00:23:45.400 the planet brighter deliberately. And this is 00:23:45.400 --> 00:23:47.500 sort of what happens after volcanoes, some volcanoes, 00:23:47.859 --> 00:23:50.339 mostly volcanoes like Pinatubo that went off 00:23:50.339 --> 00:23:52.940 in 91, cooled the global climate down by about 00:23:52.940 --> 00:23:56.180 half a degree, probably. So some ideas that have 00:23:56.180 --> 00:23:58.180 been around a long time are re -emerging. And 00:23:58.180 --> 00:24:00.240 I don't think, from a physics point of view, 00:24:00.240 --> 00:24:02.220 I'm a physicist, as you remember, it makes a 00:24:02.220 --> 00:24:04.819 lot of sense. From a sort of socio -political 00:24:04.819 --> 00:24:06.319 point of view, it's really dangerous because 00:24:06.319 --> 00:24:08.640 it's one person with a finger on a button possibly 00:24:08.640 --> 00:24:11.210 to cool the planet down a bit. But in principle, 00:24:11.289 --> 00:24:13.789 you could do this, right? You could as an emergency 00:24:13.789 --> 00:24:16.789 call down the planet. And for a while, this research 00:24:16.789 --> 00:24:20.670 has been underground. It's been a taboo to talk 00:24:20.670 --> 00:24:22.509 about it. But if you really wanted to call the 00:24:22.509 --> 00:24:23.950 climate down quickly, it's the only way we know 00:24:23.950 --> 00:24:26.710 how to do it. And I think this research now needs 00:24:26.710 --> 00:24:29.430 to be out in the open, partly because we might 00:24:29.430 --> 00:24:30.809 need an emergency measure and partly because 00:24:30.809 --> 00:24:33.269 people need to know what's being researched as 00:24:33.269 --> 00:24:35.430 well. So I think the thing that's going to emerge 00:24:35.430 --> 00:24:37.430 now is this idea of solar radiation management 00:24:37.430 --> 00:24:40.380 as an emergency measure. Well, the other stuff 00:24:40.380 --> 00:24:43.339 is kind of there. So we haven't done the work 00:24:43.339 --> 00:24:45.740 we need to do on extracting CO2 from the air, 00:24:45.779 --> 00:24:47.400 which is possible in principle, but expensive 00:24:47.400 --> 00:24:51.700 and requires a lot of energy. But I do think 00:24:51.700 --> 00:24:54.279 there'll be more and more about whether we have 00:24:54.279 --> 00:24:55.980 emergency measures in case we need them. It's 00:24:55.980 --> 00:24:58.279 a bit like saying, some people say we don't want 00:24:58.279 --> 00:25:00.259 that because it will mean we'll just... we will 00:25:00.259 --> 00:25:02.400 never cut our fossil fuel emissions so you can't 00:25:02.400 --> 00:25:04.700 have that situation you have to do that but if 00:25:04.700 --> 00:25:06.359 you wanted to chop the top off it might be the 00:25:06.359 --> 00:25:08.740 only way you can do it and lots of my scientist 00:25:08.740 --> 00:25:10.579 colleagues disagree with me on this they don't 00:25:10.579 --> 00:25:12.880 even think i should talk about it but i think 00:25:12.880 --> 00:25:14.480 we should talk about it because i think we are 00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:16.640 getting to the stage where we are in a kind of 00:25:16.640 --> 00:25:18.980 climate emergency we don't know how bad it's 00:25:18.980 --> 00:25:21.700 going to get and we might need some measure like 00:25:21.700 --> 00:25:25.809 that that doesn't say that that doesn't um Go 00:25:25.809 --> 00:25:27.470 against the idea that the ultimate thing has 00:25:27.470 --> 00:25:29.630 to be to get to net zero. That's when you know 00:25:29.630 --> 00:25:31.269 you stabilise the system. You don't have to have 00:25:31.269 --> 00:25:34.069 any sticky tapes. But I think there is a case 00:25:34.069 --> 00:25:36.230 for thinking more and more about geoengineering 00:25:36.230 --> 00:25:39.589 and doing it openly. OK, so geoengineering and 00:25:39.589 --> 00:25:44.230 it's all about those CO2 emissions. When I think 00:25:44.230 --> 00:25:46.849 and when a lot of people think about our climate, 00:25:46.890 --> 00:25:50.809 we do tend to think about. beautiful places in 00:25:50.809 --> 00:25:53.089 the world and how our landscapes are changing, 00:25:53.289 --> 00:25:57.269 how our wildlife is changing. And you, indeed, 00:25:57.410 --> 00:25:59.529 we think might think about the Amazon. Now you've 00:25:59.529 --> 00:26:01.930 done, you did a huge amount of research into 00:26:01.930 --> 00:26:04.450 the Amazon forest dieback. Can you talk to me 00:26:04.450 --> 00:26:06.329 a little bit about that? What did that involve? 00:26:07.190 --> 00:26:09.549 Yeah, so what we did, this was in the days when 00:26:09.549 --> 00:26:11.509 I was in the Met Office. So I left my PhD, I 00:26:11.509 --> 00:26:13.869 went to the Met Office. I remember they said 00:26:13.869 --> 00:26:15.650 to me, well, you're a physicist, now do biology. 00:26:16.170 --> 00:26:20.069 And so I was asked to set up a group to put vegetation 00:26:20.069 --> 00:26:23.490 dynamically into climate models um and i went 00:26:23.490 --> 00:26:26.250 they first thing they sent me to the us to meet 00:26:26.250 --> 00:26:28.150 some other experts and they all kind of laughed 00:26:28.150 --> 00:26:30.450 at me the idea was going to try and do this but 00:26:30.450 --> 00:26:34.430 because i wasn't really i was i was young and 00:26:34.430 --> 00:26:37.509 probably a bit wet behind the ears i thought 00:26:37.509 --> 00:26:39.289 we'll do this anyway and we did do it and so 00:26:39.289 --> 00:26:42.109 we did the first experiments in modeling experiments 00:26:42.109 --> 00:26:45.049 of simulations where we had vegetation moving 00:26:45.049 --> 00:26:47.799 around the globe if it was able to And we had 00:26:47.799 --> 00:26:50.079 carbon being absorbed by vegetation and the ocean. 00:26:50.539 --> 00:26:53.180 And we ran this simulation in the early 2000s. 00:26:53.180 --> 00:26:55.160 We published a paper in Nature in 2000 where 00:26:55.160 --> 00:26:57.779 we basically said, in this particular model, 00:26:58.200 --> 00:27:00.680 these feedbacks that have been missing would 00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:03.660 accelerate climate change a lot. Like global, 00:27:03.759 --> 00:27:05.339 instead of being four degrees, being five and 00:27:05.339 --> 00:27:07.920 a half. And the reason it happened was because 00:27:07.920 --> 00:27:09.880 carbon started to be released from the land, 00:27:10.039 --> 00:27:13.619 especially from soil. And really most... And 00:27:13.619 --> 00:27:15.940 worryingly, the Amazon rainforest died in that 00:27:15.940 --> 00:27:18.579 model. So it got hot and dry. The forest couldn't 00:27:18.579 --> 00:27:21.359 survive. When the forest starts to die, it stops 00:27:21.359 --> 00:27:23.400 recycling water. It gets hotter and drier still, 00:27:23.480 --> 00:27:25.539 and you've got a feedback loop. You lose the 00:27:25.539 --> 00:27:28.240 forest. Now, this turns out to be quite an extreme 00:27:28.240 --> 00:27:30.740 response from that particular model. And for 00:27:30.740 --> 00:27:33.839 years, we did experiments and analysis to try 00:27:33.839 --> 00:27:35.660 and work out how feasible this was and convinced 00:27:35.660 --> 00:27:37.279 ourselves it's not all that likely in the real 00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:39.920 world. But the latest climate models are showing 00:27:39.920 --> 00:27:42.579 more and more of this, actually. So not just 00:27:42.579 --> 00:27:45.119 the metaverse model. In fact, almost everything 00:27:45.119 --> 00:27:47.119 but the metaverse model is now showing evidence 00:27:47.119 --> 00:27:49.220 that the Amazon forest could die back under climate 00:27:49.220 --> 00:27:51.940 change scenarios, which is a real worry. And 00:27:51.940 --> 00:27:54.640 the Amazon is getting drier, too. And we think 00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:57.359 that's not just because of carbon dioxide. It's 00:27:57.359 --> 00:27:59.759 actually a rather unfortunate consequence of 00:27:59.759 --> 00:28:02.259 cleaning up the air. So the other thing that 00:28:02.259 --> 00:28:05.839 we did in the 60s and 70s and 50s was burn sulfurous 00:28:05.839 --> 00:28:08.579 coal. Now, my parents talk about the pea supers 00:28:08.579 --> 00:28:10.359 in London where you couldn't see a hand in front 00:28:10.359 --> 00:28:12.900 of your face. And that was because we were burning, 00:28:13.019 --> 00:28:16.220 putting a lot of sulfur dioxide out with CO2. 00:28:16.859 --> 00:28:19.079 Sulfur dioxide, even though it's a horrible pollutant, 00:28:19.140 --> 00:28:21.799 has a weird effect of making clouds brighter. 00:28:22.559 --> 00:28:25.460 It forms sulfate particles and droplets can form 00:28:25.460 --> 00:28:28.480 around them. You get more drops in a cloud. It 00:28:28.480 --> 00:28:31.339 reflects more sunlight. And so for a long time, 00:28:31.500 --> 00:28:34.220 we accidentally counteracted global warming with 00:28:34.220 --> 00:28:37.519 arguably even worse pollutant. And then we quite 00:28:37.519 --> 00:28:39.480 sensibly said, this is really bad for our... 00:28:40.519 --> 00:28:43.599 health for our respiratory health so we'll take 00:28:43.599 --> 00:28:45.299 the sulfur dioxide out and we've therefore got 00:28:45.299 --> 00:28:48.960 a kick the global warming that's happened just 00:28:48.960 --> 00:28:53.519 in 2020 we finally took sulfur out of shipping 00:28:53.519 --> 00:28:56.599 fuels and there's circumstantial evidence that's 00:28:56.599 --> 00:28:58.380 one of the reasons the oceans have been so hot 00:28:58.380 --> 00:29:01.099 since i've been getting hot because that sulfur 00:29:01.099 --> 00:29:03.680 dioxide was actually reflecting sunlight by virtue 00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:06.259 of making clouds a bit brighter and keeping those 00:29:06.259 --> 00:29:09.299 areas a bit cooler than they would have been 00:29:10.089 --> 00:29:12.849 Anyway, long story short, we mainly emitted sulfur 00:29:12.849 --> 00:29:14.930 dioxide in the northern hemisphere because that's 00:29:14.930 --> 00:29:17.109 where all the industrial nations were. So as 00:29:17.109 --> 00:29:19.269 we reduced those sulfur dioxide, we got a warming 00:29:19.269 --> 00:29:22.049 that meant that what's called the intertropical 00:29:22.049 --> 00:29:23.769 convergence zone, the place where there's lots 00:29:23.769 --> 00:29:27.890 of rain and cloud move northwards. And in the 00:29:27.890 --> 00:29:31.109 process, away from Amazonia, as it made sub -Saharan 00:29:31.109 --> 00:29:33.769 Africa a bit wetter, which is good, but it made 00:29:33.769 --> 00:29:36.049 Amazonia drier, especially southern Amazonia. 00:29:36.049 --> 00:29:38.470 And we think that's what's going on. This is 00:29:38.470 --> 00:29:41.250 part CO2, but a lot of it's due to doing something 00:29:41.250 --> 00:29:43.069 really sensible, which is to clean up the air. 00:29:43.390 --> 00:29:45.730 And we are getting a bit of that going on. We 00:29:45.730 --> 00:29:48.430 can see that in the satellite record. The planet 00:29:48.430 --> 00:29:51.950 is warming now as much or a bit more because 00:29:51.950 --> 00:29:54.650 it's getting darker than it is because it's getting 00:29:54.650 --> 00:29:58.589 less good at emitting radio. Now, if we're turning 00:29:58.589 --> 00:30:01.069 the conversation, trying to be perhaps look at 00:30:01.069 --> 00:30:04.750 the more positive, one of the aspects of this 00:30:04.750 --> 00:30:08.569 climate change discussion, is that it does draw 00:30:08.569 --> 00:30:11.069 people together. Just when I think about the 00:30:11.069 --> 00:30:12.910 kinds of people I'm speaking to, like yourself, 00:30:13.250 --> 00:30:16.910 our podcast guests, speaking to people from a 00:30:16.910 --> 00:30:20.750 range of careers, professions, backgrounds, from 00:30:20.750 --> 00:30:27.450 scientists to artists, a whole range of incredible 00:30:27.450 --> 00:30:31.609 people who are talking about this. And you work 00:30:31.609 --> 00:30:34.529 at Exeter, so you work with a lot of young students 00:30:34.529 --> 00:30:36.990 as well. So there are two questions here. So 00:30:36.990 --> 00:30:40.170 do you see hope in terms of your students, in 00:30:40.170 --> 00:30:43.069 terms of the students there for the future? And 00:30:43.069 --> 00:30:45.990 do you see a way of this? Do you see a way of 00:30:45.990 --> 00:30:48.190 the climate crisis, climate emergency? Because 00:30:48.190 --> 00:30:50.190 it is a climate emergency. I know you said it 00:30:50.190 --> 00:30:52.130 was a kind of climate emergency, but it is a 00:30:52.130 --> 00:30:54.609 climate emergency. Do you see the way that people 00:30:54.609 --> 00:30:57.089 can work together on this agenda a positive? 00:30:58.410 --> 00:31:01.650 Absolutely. So, I mean, we're all in a bit in 00:31:01.650 --> 00:31:03.329 bubbles sometimes, aren't we? And the people 00:31:03.329 --> 00:31:05.779 that I'm surrounded. who are equally concerned 00:31:05.779 --> 00:31:07.480 about the climate problem and interested in it, 00:31:07.519 --> 00:31:09.539 actually, scientifically, it's a real thrill 00:31:09.539 --> 00:31:11.859 to be involved with that. But the other thing 00:31:11.859 --> 00:31:15.660 is, in some ways, this is a bit of a test for 00:31:15.660 --> 00:31:17.480 humanity, this, right? Because, as you said, 00:31:17.619 --> 00:31:19.700 Anna, there's no way for us to solve this on 00:31:19.700 --> 00:31:22.500 our own. There could be one polluter in another 00:31:22.500 --> 00:31:23.700 part of the world and we'll never get to net 00:31:23.700 --> 00:31:26.920 zero globally. So it requires a degree of... 00:31:28.260 --> 00:31:30.359 global cooperation than we haven't managed before. 00:31:30.599 --> 00:31:32.759 That means it's hard, but it also means that 00:31:32.759 --> 00:31:34.259 in order to solve it, we probably have to get 00:31:34.259 --> 00:31:36.940 something even better, which is global cooperation. 00:31:37.500 --> 00:31:39.660 So I sort of see that as a positive. It might 00:31:39.660 --> 00:31:41.900 be, as you sort of were hinting, the thing that 00:31:41.900 --> 00:31:43.940 draws us together. It won't be all of us. There'll 00:31:43.940 --> 00:31:45.619 always be some dissenters, but there might be 00:31:45.619 --> 00:31:47.380 enough of us that are drawn together by this, 00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:49.799 that it not only helps us to resolve the climate 00:31:49.799 --> 00:31:51.859 problem, which is significant, but it could be 00:31:51.859 --> 00:31:53.759 even bigger problems like inequality and war 00:31:53.759 --> 00:31:55.940 and so on. These things will be affected by the 00:31:55.940 --> 00:31:59.690 fact we're connected. by a common interest and 00:31:59.690 --> 00:32:01.670 a common desire to stabilise the climate. So 00:32:01.670 --> 00:32:04.630 that's in my very optimistic moments. I do have 00:32:04.630 --> 00:32:06.470 the opposite as well, which is, crikey, we're 00:32:06.470 --> 00:32:08.430 never going to do this. But it does feel to me 00:32:08.430 --> 00:32:10.549 like it's a hard problem because it involves 00:32:10.549 --> 00:32:12.910 people working together. And that means it's 00:32:12.910 --> 00:32:15.569 doubly worth doing. I was actually going to ask 00:32:15.569 --> 00:32:17.369 you whether you get terribly depressed doing 00:32:17.369 --> 00:32:20.730 your job monitoring this or whether you, but 00:32:20.730 --> 00:32:22.430 there's obviously, there's that hint of optimism 00:32:22.430 --> 00:32:23.970 there too, isn't there? Because there has to 00:32:23.970 --> 00:32:27.380 be for you to do your work. I mean, I'm also 00:32:27.380 --> 00:32:30.599 a scientist, so this always sounds like a sort 00:32:30.599 --> 00:32:33.180 of evil scientist thing to say, but it's a really 00:32:33.180 --> 00:32:35.279 exciting thing to study the world as it's changing. 00:32:35.480 --> 00:32:36.980 I mean, you worry for your kids and you worry 00:32:36.980 --> 00:32:40.900 for your grandchildren, but in terms of studying 00:32:40.900 --> 00:32:42.839 a problem, there's nothing more interesting than 00:32:42.839 --> 00:32:44.640 this at the moment, I think, from a sort of science 00:32:44.640 --> 00:32:46.380 point of view, because you're constantly being 00:32:46.380 --> 00:32:49.519 stretched to understand what's going on. So it 00:32:49.519 --> 00:32:52.809 is an unintended experiment. I wish we weren't 00:32:52.809 --> 00:32:54.250 doing it, but if we're going to be doing it, 00:32:54.250 --> 00:32:55.789 I want to understand it and try and help to solve 00:32:55.789 --> 00:32:59.210 it. And that last one, even if you deal with 00:32:59.210 --> 00:33:01.930 it, climate change is happening anyway. The best 00:33:01.930 --> 00:33:04.250 thing I can do is to try and understand it and 00:33:04.250 --> 00:33:07.309 help in some way. And it does keep me going. 00:33:07.589 --> 00:33:09.950 You kind of answered my last question, actually. 00:33:10.069 --> 00:33:12.970 I always like to kind of finish up with a very 00:33:12.970 --> 00:33:14.849 last question, which is really asking about what 00:33:14.849 --> 00:33:16.930 next for you. You've got a highly successful 00:33:16.930 --> 00:33:20.650 career to date, but what are your ambitions next? 00:33:22.339 --> 00:33:25.420 I mean, the most exciting thing for me, the most 00:33:25.420 --> 00:33:27.140 rewarding thing is to develop new scientists. 00:33:27.180 --> 00:33:30.180 So I'm in my 60s now. I'll carry on being interested 00:33:30.180 --> 00:33:32.759 in this, but you start to see people coming through 00:33:32.759 --> 00:33:35.740 that can do things I could never do. They're 00:33:35.740 --> 00:33:37.859 going to be much more effective than I was. So 00:33:37.859 --> 00:33:40.480 developing people is a really key part of it. 00:33:40.579 --> 00:33:42.960 And then there are problems you build up in your 00:33:42.960 --> 00:33:44.859 career that kind of get put on the back burner 00:33:44.859 --> 00:33:48.140 and they turn into a very tasty stew you'll have 00:33:48.140 --> 00:33:51.089 one day. Meat -free stew, I must say, it has 00:33:51.089 --> 00:33:52.690 to be. But, you know, a stew in the background 00:33:52.690 --> 00:33:54.490 that you'll have. And so there's always this 00:33:54.490 --> 00:33:55.990 thing when you get close to retirement is that 00:33:55.990 --> 00:33:58.529 all those pet projects you'll be able to do. 00:33:58.910 --> 00:34:00.710 The problem is I'm going to need young hands 00:34:00.710 --> 00:34:04.150 to help me get the data and massage it. But I 00:34:04.150 --> 00:34:07.690 think that's doable. So one thing is about understanding 00:34:07.690 --> 00:34:09.650 this thing about the darkening planet, which 00:34:09.650 --> 00:34:12.090 is really exciting to me. Another thing is about 00:34:12.090 --> 00:34:13.969 understanding how you might detect a tipping 00:34:13.969 --> 00:34:16.409 point that you approach quickly. That's also 00:34:16.409 --> 00:34:17.949 a technical problem, but very interesting. And 00:34:17.949 --> 00:34:19.849 I think we're close to solving it. So, yeah, 00:34:19.889 --> 00:34:21.570 there's plenty of problems to keep it going. 00:34:21.809 --> 00:34:25.309 I really love that idea of that stew. And it 00:34:25.309 --> 00:34:28.530 is certainly not a time to sit back or sit on 00:34:28.530 --> 00:34:31.369 your hands. This is a time to carry on and, as 00:34:31.369 --> 00:34:34.789 you say, draw in a lot of fresh other new perspectives 00:34:34.789 --> 00:34:37.559 as well. Well, thank you very much to Peter. 00:34:37.860 --> 00:34:40.579 Thank you very much for providing such a tremendous 00:34:40.579 --> 00:34:42.960 amount of insight today. There can be no doubt 00:34:42.960 --> 00:34:44.500 that climate change is the biggest challenge 00:34:44.500 --> 00:34:46.920 of our time. Today we must reduce greenhouse 00:34:46.920 --> 00:34:49.639 gas emissions to slow global warming. Today we 00:34:49.639 --> 00:34:52.019 must act for tomorrow, adjusting our lifestyles 00:34:52.019 --> 00:34:54.219 to current and future impacts of climate change. 00:34:54.480 --> 00:34:57.500 Today we must use our collective wisdom to deliver 00:34:57.500 --> 00:35:00.300 on our climate commitments. Today we work for 00:35:00.300 --> 00:35:03.159 tomorrow's world. Thank you very much to Peter 00:35:03.159 --> 00:35:05.199 Cox, to Professor Peter Cox for joining me today. 00:35:05.460 --> 00:35:08.059 Really appreciate your time. Thank you. My pleasure. 00:35:08.440 --> 00:35:10.940 You've been listening to the Decarbonisation 00:35:10.940 --> 00:35:15.380 Dialogue, a podcast from Salix. For more information 00:35:15.380 --> 00:35:18.820 about our work and to find more content, please 00:35:18.820 --> 00:35:23.159 visit salixfinance .co .uk forward slash podcasts.