WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.060 Ever wonder what really happens behind the scenes 00:00:03.060 --> 00:00:05.400 in construction, real estate, and development? 00:00:06.019 --> 00:00:08.220 We pull back the curtain on the new home construction 00:00:08.220 --> 00:00:11.060 industry, the real estate market, and the trends 00:00:11.060 --> 00:00:14.099 shaping it all. Discover the stories, insights, 00:00:14.259 --> 00:00:16.219 and expertise behind the process of building 00:00:16.219 --> 00:00:19.660 a new home. Join us for Trust the Process podcast, 00:00:19.839 --> 00:00:22.660 and let's build something great together. So 00:00:22.660 --> 00:00:25.719 tell us what you're seeing. Tell us what you're 00:00:25.719 --> 00:00:28.460 seeing in the marketplace right now. Shifts in 00:00:28.460 --> 00:00:33.579 the last week. I feel it. I have had some buyers 00:00:33.579 --> 00:00:36.280 from my past, my broker days come out of the 00:00:36.280 --> 00:00:38.200 woodwork in the last probably two to three weeks 00:00:38.200 --> 00:00:41.179 or referrals from people. I definitely feel a 00:00:41.179 --> 00:00:43.619 buyer mood. It just feels like people are in 00:00:43.619 --> 00:00:46.509 the mood to buy. Um, a lot of these things are 00:00:46.509 --> 00:00:49.390 just kind of gut feeling and real estate is sounds 00:00:49.390 --> 00:00:52.670 so cliche, but real estate is very local. So 00:00:52.670 --> 00:00:55.229 what goes for one city doesn't go for the other. 00:00:55.250 --> 00:00:57.390 What goes for one zip code within one city doesn't 00:00:57.390 --> 00:00:59.469 go for the other. What does one price point doesn't 00:00:59.469 --> 00:01:02.850 always, but it's just a feeling. It's like a, 00:01:02.890 --> 00:01:06.269 it's like a culture of buying. Whereas the early 00:01:06.269 --> 00:01:09.230 part of this year, the first for sure, but second 00:01:09.230 --> 00:01:11.730 and third quarter were very boring this year 00:01:11.730 --> 00:01:14.920 in 2025, at least in Las Vegas. If you look at 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:17.260 the rest of the country, sings the same song, 00:01:18.019 --> 00:01:21.060 not exciting, not a great time to be a seller, 00:01:21.939 --> 00:01:24.439 kind of a crummy time to be a buyer. You're staring 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:26.939 down the barrel of high six, low 7 % interest 00:01:26.939 --> 00:01:29.500 rates. The inventory that is out there is kind 00:01:29.500 --> 00:01:31.900 of like a leftover inventory. Any of the new 00:01:31.900 --> 00:01:34.480 stuff still pretty sought after. So you're still 00:01:34.480 --> 00:01:36.400 maybe arguably in a competitive situation or 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:37.799 certainly paying more than you feel like you 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:41.750 should. The deals this year have been a new construction 00:01:41.750 --> 00:01:44.189 and I've definitely been, especially with the 00:01:44.189 --> 00:01:47.010 tonnage builders, your Linares and your DR Whartons 00:01:47.010 --> 00:01:49.909 that have the kind of power to buy down rates 00:01:49.909 --> 00:01:53.129 and the kind of motivation to clear out inventory 00:01:53.129 --> 00:01:57.010 for the quarter versus someone like us, you know, 00:01:57.090 --> 00:01:59.900 semi -custom home builder. We don't have. We 00:01:59.900 --> 00:02:03.540 put 10 to 12 homes in the ground a year. I have 00:02:03.540 --> 00:02:05.879 very little motivation to slash those houses 00:02:05.879 --> 00:02:08.439 because it's a labor of love, every single house. 00:02:08.740 --> 00:02:11.319 And it's also a unique home. And I go into every 00:02:11.319 --> 00:02:13.800 project knowing that this could be on the market 00:02:13.800 --> 00:02:15.500 for three to six months because it's not going 00:02:15.500 --> 00:02:17.400 to be, it's not going to fit the bill for every 00:02:17.400 --> 00:02:20.539 single buyer. And a lot of our, especially the 00:02:20.539 --> 00:02:23.139 last five years of what we've put out has been 00:02:23.139 --> 00:02:26.669 a lot of product that's discretionary. We have 00:02:26.669 --> 00:02:29.389 some projects coming up that are going to be 00:02:29.389 --> 00:02:32.150 more, even one now when we release it for sale 00:02:32.150 --> 00:02:34.590 in November. Are those that little enclave of 00:02:34.590 --> 00:02:37.009 homes? Those are more of a need. They're luxury 00:02:37.009 --> 00:02:39.270 homes, but they're a need. They're not resort 00:02:39.270 --> 00:02:43.110 style homes. They're just big, beautiful houses 00:02:43.110 --> 00:02:47.319 in great areas on great lots. But in the past, 00:02:47.500 --> 00:02:49.400 my wheelhouse or our wheelhouse has always been 00:02:49.400 --> 00:02:52.819 these luxury resort style homes that had a very 00:02:52.819 --> 00:02:55.099 small niche market. So I've always gone into 00:02:55.099 --> 00:02:56.900 all my projects knowing full well that it could 00:02:56.900 --> 00:02:59.500 be in it for the long haul. So I guess I say 00:02:59.500 --> 00:03:01.379 that to drive on the fact that I never have super 00:03:01.379 --> 00:03:03.379 high expectations. And I have had a couple of 00:03:03.379 --> 00:03:06.080 our luxury customs go into a multiple offer situation, 00:03:06.099 --> 00:03:08.400 but that's not been common. Or even some of our 00:03:08.400 --> 00:03:10.060 high end renovations that we wouldn't turn around 00:03:10.060 --> 00:03:12.159 to sell. Generally, you're kind of hanging tight 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:14.759 waiting for a buyer. So that's nothing new. But 00:03:14.759 --> 00:03:17.580 what we saw now was that the tonnage builders 00:03:17.580 --> 00:03:19.539 and the production builders and the regular old 00:03:19.539 --> 00:03:23.819 resale at the median sales price, let's say 450, 00:03:24.060 --> 00:03:26.699 were sitting. And those homes have never sat. 00:03:26.819 --> 00:03:28.900 Our median sales price has never sat, really, 00:03:29.180 --> 00:03:31.199 in the last 10 years. It's always moved pretty 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:33.500 well. So this is the first year that we really 00:03:33.500 --> 00:03:36.000 saw that. Now, that being said, I have seen that 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:38.360 shift in the last probably two to three weeks. 00:03:40.100 --> 00:03:43.419 different, some tone changed this month. We've 00:03:43.419 --> 00:03:45.860 seen it. We've seen it. I know the home builder 00:03:45.860 --> 00:03:49.599 tracking that's showing upticks in traffic, not 00:03:49.599 --> 00:03:51.539 necessarily upticks in new contracts, but we 00:03:51.539 --> 00:03:53.680 definitely the, at least there, it's not, it's 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:55.900 not bearing out in the data just yet, but the 00:03:55.900 --> 00:04:00.080 traffic is there. So that being said, we're feeling 00:04:00.080 --> 00:04:03.400 it on our side too, our inventory, we're seeing 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:07.300 an uptick in interest. And then the MLS at large, 00:04:07.479 --> 00:04:11.219 at least in our county is Definitely seeing inventory 00:04:11.219 --> 00:04:14.819 equilibrate. Amount of new contracts has gone 00:04:14.819 --> 00:04:19.060 up. We're seeing more of a one -to -one absorption 00:04:19.060 --> 00:04:22.040 rate. So whereas, let's call it May, which was 00:04:22.040 --> 00:04:25.480 kind of our peak new inventory month, we were 00:04:25.480 --> 00:04:29.279 seeing new inventory weekly at about 1 ,200 houses. 00:04:29.600 --> 00:04:31.779 There'll be a little bit more some weeks. And 00:04:31.779 --> 00:04:35.540 then new contracts as low as 500 or 600. So we 00:04:35.540 --> 00:04:38.990 were adding inventory really really, really quickly. 00:04:40.009 --> 00:04:45.290 In fact, May of 25 was our highest amount of 00:04:45.290 --> 00:04:48.310 new inventory to ever hit our market since probably 00:04:48.310 --> 00:04:51.750 in the last 10 years, with 5 ,000 new houses 00:04:51.750 --> 00:04:54.430 added in that month alone, bringing our total 00:04:54.430 --> 00:04:56.850 inventory to around 10 ,000. So to give you a 00:04:56.850 --> 00:05:00.649 scale of reference, we doubled our inventory 00:05:00.649 --> 00:05:04.230 in a 30 to 45 day period, the same period of 00:05:04.230 --> 00:05:07.470 time our new home or our new contracts plummeted 00:05:07.470 --> 00:05:11.569 from around 800 to 500. So we saw roughly a 20 00:05:11.569 --> 00:05:15.449 to 30 % drop in new contracts and a 50 % increase 00:05:15.449 --> 00:05:17.209 in inventory, actually a hundred percent increase 00:05:17.209 --> 00:05:21.089 in inventory. So it just, you know, I also know 00:05:21.089 --> 00:05:23.889 that real estate is really, it's sentiment driven. 00:05:24.449 --> 00:05:27.410 So it's not that it was just dumb luck. It was 00:05:27.410 --> 00:05:29.230 that because there was so much inventory being 00:05:29.230 --> 00:05:31.829 added, buyers are pulling back because buyers 00:05:31.829 --> 00:05:33.490 are pulling back the inventory that was being 00:05:33.490 --> 00:05:35.519 added wasn't being able to be absorbed. Then 00:05:35.519 --> 00:05:38.379 once it hits the headlines, then it spooks everybody 00:05:38.379 --> 00:05:41.500 and then nobody wants to do anything. And that's 00:05:41.500 --> 00:05:43.439 kind of where we found ourselves this spring. 00:05:43.980 --> 00:05:46.860 Probably our most lackluster spring in my memory. 00:05:47.019 --> 00:05:48.839 I've been in this business about 12 years. I've 00:05:48.839 --> 00:05:52.160 seen 12 springs and this is by far my least favorite, 00:05:52.279 --> 00:05:55.199 including the spring of COVID. And I don't, that 00:05:55.199 --> 00:05:57.560 doesn't even look, when I look back at the numbers, 00:05:58.100 --> 00:06:00.399 it doesn't even represent, it's not represented 00:06:00.399 --> 00:06:02.920 in the numbers, which is very odd because for 00:06:02.920 --> 00:06:06.860 instance, in terms of new listings, Raw numbers 00:06:06.860 --> 00:06:12.399 were not much higher than we were in May or June, 00:06:12.420 --> 00:06:16.279 2022 in terms of new listings. Now we were starting 00:06:16.279 --> 00:06:19.600 with a thousand listings. So if we added 5 ,000, 00:06:19.879 --> 00:06:22.639 you know, there's a lot, um, still, but still 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:25.839 under inventoried. So now we started with 5 ,000 00:06:25.839 --> 00:06:28.540 and then we added 5 ,000. So it became much more 00:06:28.540 --> 00:06:31.560 apparent. But if you look at the raw numbers, 00:06:31.600 --> 00:06:35.040 it's not. There. So it's purely sentimental. 00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:37.899 I feel that we're going to look back in a year 00:06:37.899 --> 00:06:40.680 or two and say, what happened in 25? I don't 00:06:40.680 --> 00:06:44.199 know. It's not even going to register because 00:06:44.199 --> 00:06:46.860 it's going to be inconsequential. In terms of 00:06:46.860 --> 00:06:52.480 sales price, believe it or not, we're up 2 .5 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:56.480 % from last month. In terms of the year, we are 00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:59.329 up in the last rolling 12 months were up three 00:06:59.329 --> 00:07:01.730 and a half percent pretty much countywide. So 00:07:01.730 --> 00:07:06.029 that's, that's normal appreciation. I mean, again, 00:07:06.389 --> 00:07:07.709 there are other factors that can play into this. 00:07:07.889 --> 00:07:10.389 We're more expensive homes listed, more expensive 00:07:10.389 --> 00:07:14.790 home transact. These are the medians. So it's 00:07:14.790 --> 00:07:16.430 a little bit more representative than the average, 00:07:16.490 --> 00:07:18.970 which can be thrown by a $25 million home sale. 00:07:19.560 --> 00:07:21.680 one 2 ,500 million, but on the median, you know, 00:07:21.800 --> 00:07:23.860 you have to have seven or eight 25 million of 00:07:23.860 --> 00:07:26.199 home sales to throw the median off. So when you 00:07:26.199 --> 00:07:28.439 look at it, we are still, we're at records. And 00:07:28.439 --> 00:07:31.879 mind you, this data is from our local association. 00:07:32.019 --> 00:07:34.120 So if you look at the National Association, if 00:07:34.120 --> 00:07:37.459 you look at our other compilers, such as our 00:07:37.459 --> 00:07:39.620 Zillow's and our Redfin's, these numbers could 00:07:39.620 --> 00:07:41.779 easily be different. But our median previous 00:07:41.779 --> 00:07:44.339 record was February, I'm sorry, January, 2023, 00:07:44.800 --> 00:07:46.920 with the city Henderson being a 480 for median, 00:07:47.540 --> 00:07:50.980 Las Vegas being 416. And currently today we're 00:07:50.980 --> 00:07:54.899 at 490 for Henderson, Las Vegas being 440. So 00:07:54.899 --> 00:07:58.279 we're substantially higher than during that time, 00:07:58.879 --> 00:08:01.620 than three years ago. But the headlines will 00:08:01.620 --> 00:08:06.180 say, we have seen a 3 % decline, whatever, whatever, 00:08:06.180 --> 00:08:08.860 whatever. I just want to see the data because 00:08:08.860 --> 00:08:11.740 you can spend data however you want. You can 00:08:11.740 --> 00:08:14.500 get rid of outliers. You can look only at single 00:08:14.500 --> 00:08:16.459 family. This includes some condominium and some 00:08:16.459 --> 00:08:19.639 townhouses. So if you exclude those. It's going 00:08:19.639 --> 00:08:21.339 to be even higher. Single family obviously is 00:08:21.339 --> 00:08:23.040 a bigger share of the market and they transact 00:08:23.040 --> 00:08:28.139 for higher sales prices. So it's a great year. 00:08:28.259 --> 00:08:31.019 I mean, we're in a quarter three and it's a great 00:08:31.019 --> 00:08:33.460 year. If you could have told me in January 2025 00:08:33.460 --> 00:08:35.820 that this is the year we're going to have, I 00:08:35.820 --> 00:08:38.360 wasn't prepared for the emotion of it, but the 00:08:38.360 --> 00:08:43.159 numbers are fine. It's just been a bit of a paradigm 00:08:43.159 --> 00:08:45.539 shift for us. We're in a market where we're used 00:08:45.539 --> 00:08:49.059 to sellers holding all the cards. It's just not 00:08:49.059 --> 00:08:52.759 like that at this moment. The sentiment is that 00:08:52.759 --> 00:08:56.159 the buyers have more power. And the data is there 00:08:56.159 --> 00:08:58.120 to back that up, because if you look at total 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:00.779 listings, total number of homes for sale, we're 00:09:00.779 --> 00:09:03.100 at about 10 ,000, like I mentioned. But just 00:09:03.100 --> 00:09:05.779 for reference, number one, we only have to go 00:09:05.779 --> 00:09:08.379 back to May of 2023 to have that same number 00:09:08.379 --> 00:09:11.539 of homes on the market. And before that, obviously 00:09:11.539 --> 00:09:19.029 COVID is a nadir. April 2022 lowest amount of 00:09:19.029 --> 00:09:22.129 available homes, which was around 4 ,800. So 00:09:22.129 --> 00:09:23.509 it shows you we've come a long way and we've 00:09:23.509 --> 00:09:26.690 doubled our inventory. But just for reference, 00:09:27.629 --> 00:09:32.529 we only have to go back to July slash August 00:09:32.529 --> 00:09:35.789 of 2020 to hit these inventory levels. And if 00:09:35.789 --> 00:09:39.789 we want to end just for our own references, they 00:09:39.789 --> 00:09:44.029 were never less than that. As far back as our 00:09:44.029 --> 00:09:50.419 data. compiles in the last 20 years. There's 00:09:50.419 --> 00:09:52.519 never been more homes available than that. So 00:09:52.519 --> 00:09:56.519 I guess my point is that the line peaked here 00:09:56.519 --> 00:10:00.399 in January 2015, and we're still nowhere near 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:03.940 that. We're still below. We talk about doom and 00:10:03.940 --> 00:10:08.200 gloom, but if we go back to January 2015, there 00:10:08.200 --> 00:10:12.960 were 14 ,000 houses on the market. in Las Vegas. 00:10:13.200 --> 00:10:15.399 This is Henderson, Las Vegas, and North Las Vegas. 00:10:15.679 --> 00:10:17.440 This isn't Pahrump. This isn't Mesquite. These 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:19.720 are no outlying areas. This is the Las Vegas 00:10:19.720 --> 00:10:22.519 metro area. We have 14 ,000 houses for sale. 00:10:22.659 --> 00:10:25.059 There's one caveat to this. A lot of new home 00:10:25.059 --> 00:10:27.759 construction is not represented in the data that 00:10:27.759 --> 00:10:31.080 I just mentioned. That new construction lot has 00:10:31.080 --> 00:10:34.320 to hit the MLS and has to sell on the MLS and 00:10:34.320 --> 00:10:36.899 show as a pending and show as a sold house to 00:10:36.899 --> 00:10:40.029 hit any of this data. So the caveat there is 00:10:40.029 --> 00:10:41.889 that we are definitely putting more new homes 00:10:41.889 --> 00:10:44.009 in the ground than we have in many, many, many 00:10:44.009 --> 00:10:46.889 years. But there's also people buying more new 00:10:46.889 --> 00:10:48.370 homes there are many, many years. So if we look 00:10:48.370 --> 00:10:51.090 at the number of closed transactions, like for 00:10:51.090 --> 00:10:55.850 instance, closed sales, if we look at, you know, 00:10:55.909 --> 00:10:59.690 from a monthly data, we're looking at approximately 00:10:59.690 --> 00:11:03.269 2200 closed transactions in August, which is 00:11:03.269 --> 00:11:06.559 pretty good. It's like, around $600 a week, give 00:11:06.559 --> 00:11:09.500 or take, which is pretty healthy. For reference, 00:11:09.940 --> 00:11:16.440 early 2021, we were seeing approximately 5 ,000 00:11:16.440 --> 00:11:20.299 homes a month closed. So over 1 ,000 transactions 00:11:20.299 --> 00:11:24.500 a week closed in March of 2021. Complete anomaly. 00:11:24.600 --> 00:11:26.340 Going back 10 years, you don't get anywhere close 00:11:26.340 --> 00:11:28.539 to that. But I just want to give a reference 00:11:28.539 --> 00:11:31.240 point to show the number, the month I quoted 00:11:31.240 --> 00:11:34.960 of January 2015, where we had 14 ,000 houses 00:11:34.960 --> 00:11:39.600 on the market that month. We closed 2 ,000 houses 00:11:39.600 --> 00:11:43.440 It's seven months supply in January 2015. So 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:47.960 It's eye -opening so we have we still have still 00:11:47.960 --> 00:11:50.580 fewer homes and we closed more homes than we 00:11:50.580 --> 00:11:53.879 did this time ten years ago, so We just have 00:11:53.879 --> 00:11:56.100 had a hot market. We've had a lot of closed transaction 00:11:56.100 --> 00:11:58.320 We had a lot of interest in Las Vegas. But my 00:11:58.320 --> 00:12:01.909 point is is that January 2015, I'd have to go 00:12:01.909 --> 00:12:03.590 back and look at the numbers, but we were still 00:12:03.590 --> 00:12:05.450 reeling from the financial crisis, and I have 00:12:05.450 --> 00:12:07.990 a feeling we were not building as many new construction 00:12:07.990 --> 00:12:10.509 homes as we are today. The land development wasn't 00:12:10.509 --> 00:12:14.570 there. I hate to speak anecdotally without having 00:12:14.570 --> 00:12:18.470 the data, but I know we were building fewer homes. 00:12:18.830 --> 00:12:21.509 So the total number of real estate transacting, 00:12:21.649 --> 00:12:24.629 including new construction, including all the 00:12:24.629 --> 00:12:27.789 resale, is significantly higher. The inventory 00:12:27.789 --> 00:12:31.360 is significantly lower. interest rates are significantly 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:34.299 higher than they were in January 2015, which 00:12:34.299 --> 00:12:35.899 were about four and a half, five percent, which 00:12:35.899 --> 00:12:37.980 really, I mean, if you really think about it, 00:12:38.200 --> 00:12:40.340 we're like six and a quarter today. Yes, it's 00:12:40.340 --> 00:12:42.139 a lot higher. I think where we're feeling it 00:12:42.139 --> 00:12:45.460 are the sales prices. It's those high rates plus 00:12:45.460 --> 00:12:47.580 the sales prices being significantly higher. 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:54.019 So, for instance, the, let me see, sales price, 00:12:54.860 --> 00:12:56.460 because everyone's going to have, everyone's 00:12:56.460 --> 00:12:57.919 going to be in our comment section for this. 00:12:58.159 --> 00:13:01.299 January 2015, the average sales price in Las 00:13:01.299 --> 00:13:06.759 Vegas was $180 ,000. So that extra 2 % of interest 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:08.840 rate, you wouldn't have felt it. It feels different. 00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:11.460 I'm seeing it. You're seeing inventory start 00:13:11.460 --> 00:13:14.299 to thin down. My favorite expression, and I don't 00:13:14.299 --> 00:13:15.659 know, maybe I'm the only one that appreciates 00:13:15.659 --> 00:13:19.600 it, but buyers market breed only the most motivated 00:13:19.600 --> 00:13:22.159 sellers. Sellers markets breed only the most 00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:25.860 motivated buyers. Inventory begets buyers, or 00:13:25.860 --> 00:13:28.620 I should say inventory breeds buyers. not the 00:13:28.620 --> 00:13:30.419 other way around. Buyers don't breed inventory 00:13:30.419 --> 00:13:32.960 because inventory takes a long time to amp up. 00:13:33.320 --> 00:13:36.139 You could argue that high sales prices do eventually 00:13:36.139 --> 00:13:38.740 breed more inventory because it will pull maybe 00:13:38.740 --> 00:13:42.139 investors out that were renting their homes or 00:13:42.139 --> 00:13:43.919 someone holding a second home and says, you know 00:13:43.919 --> 00:13:47.480 what, it's doubled in value. So high sales prices 00:13:47.480 --> 00:13:49.379 do tend to pull out a little bit more inventory, 00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:52.779 but boy, it is slow because same thing. Once 00:13:52.779 --> 00:13:56.000 sellers feel like home prices are appreciating 00:13:56.000 --> 00:13:58.570 substantially, They're actually less inclined 00:13:58.570 --> 00:14:03.529 to list their home. So it takes a while. It's 00:14:03.529 --> 00:14:06.990 almost like not high prices, but peaking prices 00:14:06.990 --> 00:14:09.509 once they feel like prices have peaked. And I 00:14:09.509 --> 00:14:12.529 feel that that's what we felt like in early 25, 00:14:12.570 --> 00:14:14.750 which is why we saw a lot of inventory. And then 00:14:14.750 --> 00:14:16.450 when they didn't peak, when we started to see 00:14:16.450 --> 00:14:18.509 them kind of not just necessarily pull back, 00:14:18.649 --> 00:14:21.230 but slow down quite a bit and, oh, I'm not getting 00:14:21.230 --> 00:14:24.950 comps for 700. I went to 715, 725 and I didn't 00:14:24.950 --> 00:14:28.110 get it. I went to 700 and get it went to 685 00:14:28.110 --> 00:14:31.169 didn't get it, pull it off the market. So I think 00:14:31.169 --> 00:14:33.149 that's kind of where we're at right now. And 00:14:33.149 --> 00:14:35.129 I will be encouraged to see where the rest of 00:14:35.129 --> 00:14:37.690 the year goes. And we have a bit of a blip in 00:14:37.690 --> 00:14:39.690 our market. And a lot of the Sunbelt markets 00:14:39.690 --> 00:14:41.789 have another blip in the fall, you know, and 00:14:41.789 --> 00:14:44.929 we just hit fall a couple days ago. So I expect 00:14:44.929 --> 00:14:48.549 a pretty healthy fall based on these numbers. 00:14:49.789 --> 00:14:52.190 Also, new mortgage is not new construction, new 00:14:52.190 --> 00:14:55.850 home mortgage applications, not refinances. The 00:14:55.850 --> 00:15:00.169 number I read were that they were up 22%. So 00:15:00.169 --> 00:15:03.309 that is a phenomenal leading indicator. That 00:15:03.309 --> 00:15:05.409 is a really good leading indicator for where 00:15:05.409 --> 00:15:07.730 we expect values to go. People are getting pre 00:15:07.730 --> 00:15:10.610 -approved. That's a hard credit pull. That's 00:15:10.610 --> 00:15:13.350 largely usually sending in documentation. You're 00:15:13.350 --> 00:15:16.230 not doing that to kick tires. You're ready. Yeah, 00:15:16.269 --> 00:15:18.009 those are real buyers, right? Those are real 00:15:18.009 --> 00:15:20.610 buyers Yeah, so we look at all these things and 00:15:20.610 --> 00:15:22.889 as I'm making pricing decisions on our current 00:15:22.889 --> 00:15:26.909 inventory we have One ready we have two that 00:15:26.909 --> 00:15:28.970 are going to be ready in the next week or two. 00:15:29.169 --> 00:15:32.190 We have one that'll be ready by the Thanksgiving 00:15:32.190 --> 00:15:35.210 time period and then we have six more that'll 00:15:35.210 --> 00:15:37.210 be ready probably in February But we're releasing 00:15:37.210 --> 00:15:41.440 for sales in the next six weeks I need that information, 00:15:41.679 --> 00:15:43.879 I need this information to make those pricing 00:15:43.879 --> 00:15:45.879 decisions. So say, do we do a price reduction? 00:15:46.100 --> 00:15:49.059 Do we do, what are we doing here? How do we engage 00:15:49.059 --> 00:15:51.320 with buyers that ask for certain concessions 00:15:51.320 --> 00:15:55.100 if I feel the market is on an upswing? Like I 00:15:55.100 --> 00:15:57.440 said, every home is custom. So I'm not in the 00:15:57.440 --> 00:16:00.629 business of slashing and burning. and getting 00:16:00.629 --> 00:16:02.610 inventory off my books. I worked too hard for 00:16:02.610 --> 00:16:05.269 that inventory. I didn't just build it to liquidate 00:16:05.269 --> 00:16:08.629 it. Why? It's important. So I turned a real estate 00:16:08.629 --> 00:16:11.370 podcast into a home builder episode, which I 00:16:11.370 --> 00:16:14.309 can't help it. I love it. I love it. I think 00:16:14.309 --> 00:16:17.590 it's great. It was good information. So thank 00:16:17.590 --> 00:16:21.360 you. Perfect. Good content. Awesome. Thanks for 00:16:21.360 --> 00:16:23.960 tuning into the Press the Process podcast. Make 00:16:23.960 --> 00:16:26.360 sure to follow us on Spotify to stay in the loop 00:16:26.360 --> 00:16:29.000 with the latest insights, project updates, and 00:16:29.000 --> 00:16:31.179 everything in between. See you next time.