WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.060 Ever wonder what really happens behind the scenes 00:00:03.060 --> 00:00:05.360 in construction, real estate, and development? 00:00:06.080 --> 00:00:08.240 We pull back the curtain on the new home construction 00:00:08.240 --> 00:00:11.060 industry, the real estate market, and the trends 00:00:11.060 --> 00:00:14.080 shaping it all. Discover the stories, insights, 00:00:14.279 --> 00:00:16.239 and expertise behind the process of building 00:00:16.239 --> 00:00:19.640 a new home. Join us for Trust the Process Podcast, 00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:22.359 and let's build something great. together. Welcome 00:00:22.359 --> 00:00:24.920 back to another episode of trust the process. 00:00:25.120 --> 00:00:27.579 I'm Krista joined again by Michael. We're going 00:00:27.579 --> 00:00:32.280 to talk today about seasonality. So right now 00:00:32.280 --> 00:00:34.840 peak in the spring selling season, you may have 00:00:34.840 --> 00:00:36.899 heard that if you're shopping for a home or building 00:00:36.899 --> 00:00:40.719 homes or In the industry, yeah, in the industry 00:00:40.719 --> 00:00:43.060 of any kind. It's a topic that we can dive into 00:00:43.060 --> 00:00:45.100 regardless of where you sit in the builder -seller 00:00:45.100 --> 00:00:48.679 world because it affects us all and there is 00:00:48.679 --> 00:00:51.460 definitely an ebb and a flow to the seasonality 00:00:51.460 --> 00:00:53.479 of how things move and how real estate changes 00:00:53.479 --> 00:00:56.159 and how the industry as a whole absorbs things 00:00:56.159 --> 00:00:58.439 throughout the year. So I thought that would 00:00:58.439 --> 00:01:00.899 be an interesting topic to discuss. Yeah, and 00:01:00.899 --> 00:01:03.359 it's definitely fitting for the time of year. 00:01:03.359 --> 00:01:05.519 It is, and I know you've got a lot to share too 00:01:05.519 --> 00:01:09.079 because this has been a unique season. This spring 00:01:09.079 --> 00:01:11.319 season in particular has brought some things 00:01:11.319 --> 00:01:14.799 that, you know. Yeah, some more macro economic 00:01:14.799 --> 00:01:17.299 factors that have thrown off what would have 00:01:17.299 --> 00:01:22.079 been normally a really great spring in a really 00:01:22.079 --> 00:01:25.540 otherwise stable real estate market. So generally, 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:28.799 every market, you can't argue just based on the 00:01:28.799 --> 00:01:32.060 data, every market has a seasonal component to 00:01:32.060 --> 00:01:34.780 it. Here in Las Vegas, we have very little precipitation, 00:01:34.920 --> 00:01:37.260 you know snow we really don't have seasons. It's 00:01:37.260 --> 00:01:43.079 kind of hot and December and We have but we do 00:01:43.079 --> 00:01:45.299 see a seasonality and I think it just comes down 00:01:45.299 --> 00:01:48.420 to the cadence and rhythm of life I think holidays 00:01:48.420 --> 00:01:52.560 kids school schedules and just Certain factors. 00:01:52.560 --> 00:01:55.420 We still have brokerage clients, right and one 00:01:55.420 --> 00:01:58.670 thing you'll hear me say is it don't underestimate 00:01:58.670 --> 00:02:01.349 the amount of daylight we get at certain times 00:02:01.349 --> 00:02:03.870 of year and how your home is going to show at 00:02:03.870 --> 00:02:05.890 five o 'clock in April versus five o 'clock in 00:02:05.890 --> 00:02:09.430 November when it's dark already or even say twilight 00:02:09.430 --> 00:02:12.770 and sometimes twilight in this city and our time 00:02:12.770 --> 00:02:15.110 zone is sometimes early at four o 'clock depending 00:02:15.110 --> 00:02:17.129 on the time of year. Sure, even in the builder 00:02:17.129 --> 00:02:19.750 world where you get they change their summer 00:02:19.750 --> 00:02:22.310 hours, winter hours, their open hour longer in 00:02:22.310 --> 00:02:24.289 the sun, sometimes two hours with some builders 00:02:24.289 --> 00:02:27.379 are open longer in the summer because it's late 00:02:27.379 --> 00:02:31.860 lighter. I mean it's light later. It stays light 00:02:31.860 --> 00:02:34.819 later in the day that it allows you that extra 00:02:34.819 --> 00:02:36.560 couple of hours. So not only do you have more 00:02:36.560 --> 00:02:38.860 people out looking, now you've expanded your 00:02:38.860 --> 00:02:42.120 hours to accommodate that and so tends to breed 00:02:42.120 --> 00:02:46.979 higher sales. Even now, we're having a really 00:02:46.979 --> 00:02:49.659 kind of bumpy spring honestly between the economic 00:02:49.659 --> 00:02:52.080 news and the tariffs and all the uncertainty 00:02:52.080 --> 00:02:55.409 there. I think that You're still seeing a lot 00:02:55.409 --> 00:02:58.270 of traffic though. So it's just apprehension 00:02:58.270 --> 00:03:00.210 around pulling the trigger, but the traffic is 00:03:00.210 --> 00:03:03.229 still there. So I know our sales team like Las 00:03:03.229 --> 00:03:05.550 Vegas, I mean, you guys, you guys are seeing 00:03:05.550 --> 00:03:08.849 a lot of traffic on our bills, a lot of inquiries 00:03:08.849 --> 00:03:11.990 on our other projects and any of our brokerage 00:03:11.990 --> 00:03:15.669 listings. pretty busy. And even on the resale 00:03:15.669 --> 00:03:19.189 side we have sometimes multiple offers and things 00:03:19.189 --> 00:03:23.750 are percolating. One thing to always remember 00:03:23.750 --> 00:03:26.509 and counsel our clients on this on our brokerage 00:03:26.509 --> 00:03:30.599 side is that with that buyer traffic comes a 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:33.819 lot of extra inventory, though. So a lot of sellers 00:03:33.819 --> 00:03:35.879 are planning on taking advantage of that traffic, 00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:39.180 so a lot of great inventory comes in those same 00:03:39.180 --> 00:03:41.680 months. So you have a higher likelihood, but 00:03:41.680 --> 00:03:44.759 you also have more competition. So in a spring 00:03:44.759 --> 00:03:49.620 like this, in 2025, we're seeing buyer trepidation 00:03:49.620 --> 00:03:55.319 and lukewarm sentiments on buying a home, but 00:03:55.319 --> 00:03:58.259 we also got the spring influx of inventory. And 00:03:58.259 --> 00:04:00.620 it's an interesting, you know, you plan for that 00:04:00.620 --> 00:04:02.800 spring. Everybody knows spring selling. So as 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:05.599 an agent, agents are advising their clients, 00:04:05.819 --> 00:04:07.599 wait and put your house on the market come spring. 00:04:08.139 --> 00:04:10.159 Builders are, you know, who'll be in, I don't 00:04:10.159 --> 00:04:12.580 know, when you start your homes at the front 00:04:12.580 --> 00:04:16.269 end. Do you then time it to be with that spring? 00:04:16.629 --> 00:04:19.149 Well, the miracle of getting a building permit 00:04:19.149 --> 00:04:23.189 in Clark County, I'm not going to wait. And we 00:04:23.189 --> 00:04:25.350 build custom homes generally, or semi -custom 00:04:25.350 --> 00:04:27.790 homes. So the timeline, we don't run production 00:04:27.790 --> 00:04:30.730 the way that a production builder would, or a 00:04:30.730 --> 00:04:33.930 ton -inch builder. We might take seven months, 00:04:34.009 --> 00:04:36.209 nine, or 12, just depending. And there's certain 00:04:36.209 --> 00:04:37.910 things that maybe I walk through home and change 00:04:37.910 --> 00:04:40.959 it. and makes my business partner crazy, but 00:04:40.959 --> 00:04:42.899 I do. Sometimes if I feel like it can be better, 00:04:43.079 --> 00:04:45.519 we'll make those changes in the field. Because 00:04:45.519 --> 00:04:47.379 at the end of the day, we're trying to tweak 00:04:47.379 --> 00:04:48.939 and get as much out of that asset as possible. 00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:51.240 So if it slows it down a month, but I can make 00:04:51.240 --> 00:04:54.339 it more desirable, I'll do it. So short answer 00:04:54.339 --> 00:04:57.800 on the terms of when we start. Yeah, no, I never. 00:04:58.170 --> 00:05:00.170 hold back and say, well, this is going to finish 00:05:00.170 --> 00:05:02.569 in December. I'll think about it and say, that's 00:05:02.569 --> 00:05:04.029 a bummer. That's probably going to finish in 00:05:04.029 --> 00:05:06.310 December. But by the way, it almost never does. 00:05:06.730 --> 00:05:07.750 December becomes February. And I think most builders 00:05:07.750 --> 00:05:10.470 do that. They accommodate that or they allow 00:05:10.470 --> 00:05:12.430 for that. They could offer some incentives, keep 00:05:12.430 --> 00:05:14.949 a promotion, push some of that inventory that 00:05:14.949 --> 00:05:17.459 might. Right. They need to make up. And if nothing 00:05:17.459 --> 00:05:19.420 else, you always want to be funded enough, if 00:05:19.420 --> 00:05:22.399 you're a developer, to say, you know what, December's 00:05:22.399 --> 00:05:24.720 completion might make for great spring inventory 00:05:24.720 --> 00:05:26.839 next year. And if I'm still sitting on it, we'll 00:05:26.839 --> 00:05:28.899 stage it, we'll relaunch it, and we'll make it 00:05:28.899 --> 00:05:31.360 a great piece of spring inventory that hits late 00:05:31.360 --> 00:05:33.379 January, right before the spring rush, before 00:05:33.379 --> 00:05:36.259 everyone is coming around. We have that privilege 00:05:36.259 --> 00:05:39.879 in Las Vegas where we have seasonality, but I 00:05:39.879 --> 00:05:43.220 always say it's more tied to holidays. So we 00:05:43.220 --> 00:05:45.600 will see slowdowns in and around those holidays. 00:05:45.720 --> 00:05:49.420 But we are also a high relocation market. So 00:05:49.420 --> 00:05:50.980 sometimes people will take those breaks from 00:05:50.980 --> 00:05:53.639 school and those holiday breaks from work to 00:05:53.639 --> 00:05:55.540 do their house hunting here in Las Vegas. So 00:05:55.540 --> 00:05:57.680 sometimes Thanksgiving can surprise you and have 00:05:57.680 --> 00:05:59.379 great amount of traffic. Typically, November 00:05:59.379 --> 00:06:01.519 is good. You get kind of a slowdown in October 00:06:01.519 --> 00:06:04.060 and then there's a bit of an uptick in November. 00:06:04.810 --> 00:06:07.310 We may not close it by Christmas anyway, so let's 00:06:07.310 --> 00:06:09.110 just get it under contract and we'll close it 00:06:09.110 --> 00:06:11.829 and move in at the new year. It'll be fun to 00:06:11.829 --> 00:06:14.089 get it started then. So we have a lot of Asian 00:06:14.089 --> 00:06:17.110 culture here too, so we have another major holiday 00:06:17.110 --> 00:06:19.069 in February for Chinese New Year, so we'll see 00:06:19.069 --> 00:06:21.009 that rush Tuesday. Okay, we want to buy in December. 00:06:21.490 --> 00:06:23.709 Close in January and be ready for... Yeah, but 00:06:23.709 --> 00:06:25.509 I think it's different even than the national 00:06:25.509 --> 00:06:27.730 market. You know, most people see spring selling 00:06:27.730 --> 00:06:30.310 sort of starts in March, April. Here we really 00:06:30.310 --> 00:06:32.350 start our spring selling in February. Our season 00:06:32.350 --> 00:06:35.069 is... My canned response is Super Bowl Sunday. 00:06:35.290 --> 00:06:38.850 It is. That's the daily marker. We all know Super 00:06:38.850 --> 00:06:41.490 Bowl Sunday. Tomorrow's going to be... It's probably 00:06:41.490 --> 00:06:43.449 going to be busy. Yeah. And that's not to say 00:06:43.449 --> 00:06:45.970 when I was running the brokerage very hands -on, 00:06:46.250 --> 00:06:48.009 I knew I was going to start getting calls probably 00:06:48.009 --> 00:06:50.370 the first week of January. It never failed. I 00:06:50.370 --> 00:06:53.019 would get... you know, previous clients and referrals 00:06:53.019 --> 00:06:54.660 that came out of the woodwork and say, okay, 00:06:54.759 --> 00:06:56.740 we would just, but then they start their hunt 00:06:56.740 --> 00:06:59.639 and earnest around that time in early February. 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:02.319 And you're, those are March contracts and April 00:07:02.319 --> 00:07:05.720 closings and. Yeah. So to get around that, to 00:07:05.720 --> 00:07:08.439 go back to your other question, where, where 00:07:08.439 --> 00:07:10.060 as a builder and a developer, when you're working 00:07:10.060 --> 00:07:12.620 with kind of unpredictable timelines and where 00:07:12.620 --> 00:07:15.100 do you land in the seasons? That's why we try 00:07:15.100 --> 00:07:19.740 to do a bang up job with renderings and. you 00:07:19.740 --> 00:07:21.560 know, we're converting one of our inventory homes 00:07:21.560 --> 00:07:25.019 to a model home now. So we want to have the model 00:07:25.019 --> 00:07:27.720 inventory and have that kind of infrastructure 00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:30.600 in place, but then try to represent our other 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:33.220 inventory that might be completing in September, 00:07:33.279 --> 00:07:36.360 October, November. So that's a strategy on why 00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:39.579 we will list our spec homes early to try to say, 00:07:39.740 --> 00:07:42.720 okay, well, yes, we're not there and ready. And 00:07:42.720 --> 00:07:45.579 that's why I had a big push to list our three 00:07:45.579 --> 00:07:48.660 new pieces of inventory in Lake Las Vegas. By 00:07:48.660 --> 00:07:50.759 the end of March, remember, I wanted that kind 00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:53.579 of ready to go and live and have that running 00:07:53.579 --> 00:07:55.839 through April, May, June. Those are probably 00:07:55.839 --> 00:07:58.360 September, October, finish, you know, completion. 00:07:58.939 --> 00:08:02.000 So in closing, so I want to capture some of this 00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:04.660 spring inventory. So people know you're not only 00:08:04.660 --> 00:08:06.339 looking at what the other production builders 00:08:06.339 --> 00:08:08.480 have in this price point or the resales, but 00:08:08.480 --> 00:08:10.439 yeah, that's how I try to take advantage of the 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:13.379 seasonality. And seasonality kind of has two, 00:08:13.420 --> 00:08:14.959 I mean, if you were looking at it on a graph, 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:17.360 there really are two lines to follow. There's 00:08:17.360 --> 00:08:19.879 seasonality of sales and seasonality of closings 00:08:19.879 --> 00:08:23.180 or seasonality of funding on those. So they typically 00:08:23.180 --> 00:08:25.160 don't even trend to the same because you start 00:08:25.160 --> 00:08:28.220 the home here and it sells here. So you're moving 00:08:28.220 --> 00:08:30.899 in a different trajectory at each different point. 00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:35.179 So two different lines to track. April contracts. 00:08:35.529 --> 00:08:38.110 Bring me closings. Yes, trying to make the April 00:08:38.110 --> 00:08:41.210 showers. Well, that in the resale world, because 00:08:41.210 --> 00:08:42.929 you're typically on a 30 day window, but in the 00:08:42.929 --> 00:08:45.289 builder world where you're a seven month. Oh, 00:08:45.289 --> 00:08:47.750 yeah. You know, even on a production home where 00:08:47.750 --> 00:08:50.149 you're three, four months, you're still your 00:08:50.149 --> 00:08:51.590 your line doesn't, you know, your bell curve 00:08:51.590 --> 00:08:54.190 doesn't. You're right. Right. Right. In terms 00:08:54.190 --> 00:08:58.370 of contracts executed. Yeah. And any any HB makes 00:08:58.370 --> 00:09:00.570 that distinction. Usually they'll call sales 00:09:00.570 --> 00:09:02.809 when a contract was executed. I don't think of 00:09:02.809 --> 00:09:05.350 it that way. So they'll track new home sales, 00:09:05.350 --> 00:09:08.409 because how many homes go to contract in November, 00:09:08.450 --> 00:09:10.389 December, and they don't close until May of next 00:09:10.389 --> 00:09:11.809 year? Exactly. So it's contract execution versus 00:09:11.809 --> 00:09:15.909 closing. So funded are two really different distinctions. 00:09:16.149 --> 00:09:18.169 And while they both are affected by the seasonality, 00:09:18.230 --> 00:09:21.370 they're affected at a different rate. They are, 00:09:21.409 --> 00:09:23.590 right. And that doesn't factor in cancellations. 00:09:23.870 --> 00:09:26.970 True. So you can sell the same home three times, 00:09:27.090 --> 00:09:30.230 many times, right? And that number is going to 00:09:30.230 --> 00:09:33.440 be artificially higher. Over... Millions of data, 00:09:33.620 --> 00:09:36.940 you know 1 .1 million homes go to contract new 00:09:36.940 --> 00:09:41.000 homes in a year And it's even 10 % or 5 % of 00:09:41.000 --> 00:09:44.159 those go to contract twice. It's 50 ,000 artificially 00:09:44.159 --> 00:09:46.980 higher numbers of new home sales So I like to 00:09:46.980 --> 00:09:49.840 look at closings. Yeah Yeah, because that's where 00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:53.539 the money goes. A big part of it. Yeah, exactly. 00:09:53.840 --> 00:09:56.279 So diving a little further into the elephant 00:09:56.279 --> 00:09:59.220 in the room, spring selling season now, everybody 00:09:59.220 --> 00:10:02.500 banks on it. In the industry, we know it is the 00:10:02.500 --> 00:10:04.559 cash cow season. It's when things uptick after 00:10:04.559 --> 00:10:09.240 the winter. A lot of builders bank their revenue 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:11.340 on that. And in the resale world, a lot of sellers 00:10:11.340 --> 00:10:14.919 hope to move or buyers help to buy. It's projected 00:10:14.919 --> 00:10:17.919 to be this ooh -ahh moment and this year has 00:10:17.919 --> 00:10:19.720 not been. No, it's not materialized. Let's talk 00:10:19.720 --> 00:10:23.019 a little bit about that or how... I think it's 00:10:23.019 --> 00:10:26.059 confidence. It's micro or it's macroeconomics, 00:10:26.259 --> 00:10:31.299 but every time you count out real estate, with 00:10:31.299 --> 00:10:34.379 the exception of one event, 2008, every time 00:10:34.379 --> 00:10:37.419 you count it out, you're usually wrong. It just 00:10:37.419 --> 00:10:41.779 never... They're non -fungible assets. They have 00:10:41.779 --> 00:10:46.059 utility. They have functionality. They have status. 00:10:46.340 --> 00:10:50.139 There's a lot of reasons people buy. They represent 00:10:50.139 --> 00:10:52.779 their retirement. They represent their new marriage. 00:10:52.940 --> 00:10:58.600 They represent their new wealth. There's only 00:10:58.600 --> 00:11:01.320 so much people will wait out the real estate 00:11:01.320 --> 00:11:05.379 market. So I feel that it's been kind of lackluster. 00:11:05.519 --> 00:11:08.549 It just doesn't feel like spring. Oddly enough 00:11:08.549 --> 00:11:11.149 in Las Vegas at least and we're making some headlines 00:11:11.149 --> 00:11:13.590 because we're a particularly slow metro area 00:11:13.590 --> 00:11:15.929 But you look at the new resale contracts or anything 00:11:15.929 --> 00:11:18.330 that's hit our MLS. So sometimes builders will 00:11:18.330 --> 00:11:21.450 put new homes on MLS When you look at that data, 00:11:21.450 --> 00:11:23.830 we're still going to contract in about 800 houses 00:11:23.830 --> 00:11:27.590 a week, which is pretty good That's very good. 00:11:27.590 --> 00:11:29.889 Yeah, our lowest of our lows and coven around 00:11:29.889 --> 00:11:33.049 this time in 2020 It was around 500. Okay, and 00:11:33.049 --> 00:11:35.009 then our highest of our highs and the crazy run 00:11:35.009 --> 00:11:38.870 -up in 2021 was around 800. So we're actually 00:11:38.870 --> 00:11:41.789 in that number right now at that point. That's 00:11:41.789 --> 00:11:44.750 confidence builder. I like that. Yeah, I was 00:11:44.750 --> 00:11:46.789 on a precipice this weekend, so I had to look 00:11:46.789 --> 00:11:48.490 at these numbers because I was about to freak 00:11:48.490 --> 00:11:51.529 the hell out. Talk yourself off the ledge. I 00:11:51.529 --> 00:11:56.350 don't want to say it's as hot because in 2021 00:11:56.350 --> 00:11:58.970 that number may have been 1300, but we didn't 00:11:58.970 --> 00:12:01.549 have the inventory to sell. So our rate limiter 00:12:01.549 --> 00:12:04.870 back then Was our inventory. Now it's buyer demand. 00:12:05.029 --> 00:12:07.230 I mean, buyers, there's no two ways around it. 00:12:07.230 --> 00:12:09.789 Buyers are way more cautious and they're way 00:12:09.789 --> 00:12:12.669 more concerned. And home prices are higher than 00:12:12.669 --> 00:12:15.470 ever and interest rates are not higher than ever, 00:12:15.470 --> 00:12:18.149 but they're still very elevated. So there's, 00:12:18.250 --> 00:12:21.769 it's not, if not for the things I mentioned previously 00:12:21.769 --> 00:12:24.350 that they're a symbol of your marriage, symbol 00:12:24.350 --> 00:12:26.789 of wealth, symbol of your retirement. If we didn't 00:12:26.789 --> 00:12:28.590 have that carrying us, I do think that would 00:12:28.590 --> 00:12:31.970 be even more dismal. but we've had high rates 00:12:31.970 --> 00:12:35.049 for many years now about three years and We've 00:12:35.049 --> 00:12:37.690 survived way worse and it's not even that bad. 00:12:37.730 --> 00:12:42.049 It's just not It's just not as quickly as I would 00:12:42.049 --> 00:12:45.480 like it to and we build in a Segment that is 00:12:45.480 --> 00:12:48.419 even you know is smaller market segment and that's 00:12:48.419 --> 00:12:50.700 a slow -moving market anyway And now I feel like 00:12:50.700 --> 00:12:53.080 it's just taking a tick back. That's even some 00:12:53.080 --> 00:12:54.820 of the other things that are happening There's 00:12:54.820 --> 00:12:57.139 a there's just a climate you know people have 00:12:57.139 --> 00:12:59.759 had impact from the tariffs and from the stock 00:12:59.759 --> 00:13:02.259 market You know there's I think it's even if 00:13:02.259 --> 00:13:04.460 it doesn't it didn't directly affect me Yeah, 00:13:04.460 --> 00:13:06.960 but I held back on purchasing two lots in Las 00:13:06.960 --> 00:13:09.519 Vegas because of this I mean I'm falling into 00:13:09.519 --> 00:13:12.100 it too, and I'm I hate fear, and I hate making 00:13:12.100 --> 00:13:14.590 decisions off of fear But you also don't want 00:13:14.590 --> 00:13:15.990 to be overexposed and you want to make sure this 00:13:15.990 --> 00:13:18.529 company is still here in 10 years. You don't 00:13:18.529 --> 00:13:22.570 want to get greedy. Now there will be, again, 00:13:22.629 --> 00:13:24.870 I won't wait it out forever. So someone right 00:13:24.870 --> 00:13:27.190 now is going to get an offer from me on a piece 00:13:27.190 --> 00:13:29.470 of dirt in Lake Las Vegas. It just will. They 00:13:29.470 --> 00:13:31.529 will. And maybe not now. They would have gotten 00:13:31.529 --> 00:13:33.309 it two weeks ago, but maybe they'll get it in 00:13:33.309 --> 00:13:35.129 two weeks or three weeks or four weeks. I would 00:13:35.129 --> 00:13:37.509 like to see some buy opportunities in terms of 00:13:37.509 --> 00:13:39.750 the parcel in order to pull me off that ledge. 00:13:40.090 --> 00:13:42.750 So maybe some of our homes. if they're still 00:13:42.750 --> 00:13:44.769 sitting, maybe they have to be a buy opportunity 00:13:44.769 --> 00:13:46.730 for somebody. The margins in new construction, 00:13:47.090 --> 00:13:48.669 especially luxury new construction, are really, 00:13:48.669 --> 00:13:51.669 really great. So you can support and sustain 00:13:51.669 --> 00:13:55.250 market fluctuations and incentives and concessions 00:13:55.250 --> 00:13:58.610 and things like that. It's interesting right 00:13:58.610 --> 00:14:01.769 now because there was a time in the market, obviously, 00:14:02.110 --> 00:14:03.769 interest rates spiked. And so there was this 00:14:03.769 --> 00:14:07.669 tangible factor that that created a bit of a 00:14:07.669 --> 00:14:10.409 slow down right now it's just purely confidence 00:14:10.409 --> 00:14:13.750 yeah it's just there's a climate in the air that 00:14:13.750 --> 00:14:16.210 has people a little trepidatious yeah there's 00:14:16.210 --> 00:14:19.070 just we had almost a 20 % stock market correction 00:14:19.070 --> 00:14:21.730 in the last three weeks yeah we've regained a 00:14:21.730 --> 00:14:23.669 lot of that but that'll spook you it spooked 00:14:23.669 --> 00:14:25.730 me you know you just spook that's what it is 00:14:25.730 --> 00:14:31.089 everybody's a little spooked just kind of We 00:14:31.089 --> 00:14:35.690 had a little conversation yesterday that I liked 00:14:35.690 --> 00:14:38.330 that when we're recounting these stories a year 00:14:38.330 --> 00:14:40.809 later, two years later, six months later, you 00:14:40.809 --> 00:14:42.990 throw weeks away like they're nothing. Remember 00:14:42.990 --> 00:14:44.909 those eight weeks where it was like, but when 00:14:44.909 --> 00:14:47.110 you're living it - That's true. It's so true. 00:14:47.250 --> 00:14:49.129 Gosh, we haven't sold those two. We've got to 00:14:49.129 --> 00:14:51.289 get rid of those and we've got to do this. You 00:14:51.289 --> 00:14:54.389 just feel like, okay, remember that in hindsight, 00:14:54.669 --> 00:14:58.549 the weeks shrink. I have to think back to, I 00:14:58.549 --> 00:15:01.889 have to channel who I was in 2020. Right? Yeah. 00:15:01.909 --> 00:15:03.990 All of March was terrifying. All of April was 00:15:03.990 --> 00:15:05.669 terrifying. I remember all of May was terrifying. 00:15:05.990 --> 00:15:09.070 I was still buying land. I was still doing it. 00:15:09.169 --> 00:15:11.570 So I wasn't, it wasn't scaring me, obviously. 00:15:11.769 --> 00:15:15.429 But again, we've had liberation day for three 00:15:15.429 --> 00:15:18.269 weeks now. I mean, you know, COVID three weeks 00:15:18.269 --> 00:15:20.370 into the COVID lockdown was barely the first 00:15:20.370 --> 00:15:22.909 week of April. So it just shows you that we don't 00:15:22.909 --> 00:15:24.990 think about it, but there's really not been a 00:15:24.990 --> 00:15:27.659 lot of time elapsed for these things to kind 00:15:27.659 --> 00:15:29.879 of iron themselves out and for people to realize, 00:15:29.879 --> 00:15:32.120 okay, you know what, we're fine, we're gonna 00:15:32.120 --> 00:15:33.779 make our moves. And for that fear to kind of 00:15:33.779 --> 00:15:36.100 get absorbed back into the market as we start 00:15:36.100 --> 00:15:40.840 to realize it maybe isn't gonna be as fearful 00:15:40.840 --> 00:15:44.299 as we have thought. It works in both ways. You 00:15:44.299 --> 00:15:47.240 remember 2021. there was a fear they were running 00:15:47.240 --> 00:15:49.840 out of houses. So the fear worked in the opposite. 00:15:50.019 --> 00:15:53.700 And we saw it in multiple offers, $50 ,000 over 00:15:53.700 --> 00:15:56.100 list price, and appraisal waivers, inspection 00:15:56.100 --> 00:15:59.720 waivers. It was fear operating to the benefit 00:15:59.720 --> 00:16:01.360 of the real estate market. I think that overall 00:16:01.360 --> 00:16:04.799 generally has a negative effect on the housing 00:16:04.799 --> 00:16:09.080 market. But the sellers like it. Builders like 00:16:09.080 --> 00:16:12.080 it in the short term. It's candy. It feels good 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:14.220 going down, but it makes you feel like crap later. 00:16:15.080 --> 00:16:20.659 A little sugar hangover. Yep. So that's seasonality. 00:16:20.679 --> 00:16:22.840 So there's a psychology to it, for sure. And 00:16:22.840 --> 00:16:26.340 we're all affected by the climate. All right. 00:16:26.419 --> 00:16:29.779 So that is spring selling season. And thanks 00:16:29.779 --> 00:16:32.960 for joining us on a quick recap of what we know 00:16:32.960 --> 00:16:35.399 about the market for today and what we're seeing 00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:38.399 here in spring selling season as seasonality 00:16:38.399 --> 00:16:41.909 is concerned. So thanks for joining us. on Trust 00:16:41.909 --> 00:16:44.389 the Process podcast and we will see you next 00:16:44.389 --> 00:16:48.230 time. Thanks. Bye bye. Thanks for tuning into 00:16:48.230 --> 00:16:50.750 the Trust the Process podcast. Make sure to follow 00:16:50.750 --> 00:16:53.269 us on Spotify to stay in the loop with the latest 00:16:53.269 --> 00:16:56.149 insights, project updates and everything in between. 00:16:56.690 --> 00:16:57.450 See you next time.