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and let's build something great together. Hello,
and welcome back to Trust the Process podcast
where we talk about the real estate industry,
home construction and everything in between.
Today we are going to dive into what's going
on since our last update. So we did an update
at the end of the year starting into 2025 and
now as we end out the first quarter of that we
wanted to do a bit of a wrap up just kind of
what's been happening. A little temperature check.
Exactly. Like it. Yeah, I like it. So lots to
talk about Too much is changing too rapidly.
We're not in a really volatile timeframe right
now in the housing industry, but enough is changing
that it's worth discussing and there are Some
some new things that have come up some fault
lines. Yeah Yeah, so if you want to jump in let's
let's just yeah right into it I really wanted
to talk about the real estate market as a whole
okay in terms of where we're at in the first
quarter of 2025 real estate market just general
resales to how it affects new construction i
want to talk about mortgages because that dovetails
into that as well and then i want to talk about
home building and home builder sentiment and
those types of things that are really kind of
dominating in the headlines right now so i like
that breaking it up into yeah i just think it's
they all work in unison they are sort of they're
kind of their own thing yeah so uh The housing
market is, as you said, it's not very exciting.
It's just not, it's not a tumultuous year. Uh,
it's been stable for the last more or less two
and a half years. I would say probably, well,
we're going on probably under three years. I
think it really started to stabilize in middle
of 2022, which is what the intention was, you
know, to get, to get a lid on those. that runaway
kind of price gains that we were seeing and that
worked. Thankfully, we've just gone into a prolonged
period of very stable, healthy appreciation and
a lot of other factors that are affecting the
market, not necessarily price gains. So inventory.
obviously remains really constrained. And then
mortgage rates. And I think this that kind of
those two things together have honestly functioned
as a backstop on what could have been some real,
really marked softening in the market. So the
high rates all through 23 and 24. And now into
25, we're still yet to see anything with a five
handle. So we're Right now sitting in the back
half of March, we're sitting in the high sixes
still to this day. So we are probably going to
land there. That being said, back to appreciation,
I want to talk about mortgages separately. But
JP Morgan's you know at the end of 24 JP Morgan
Zillow the consensus among kind of those economists
and people that make their living and they are
things like that you know organizations like
that pretty much had a consensus that home appreciation
was going to be around three to four percent
with the least you know the most conservative
estimates at three and the most aggressive at
four okay but regardless that's just about keeping
up with inflation so. uh that indicates that
it's a healthy stable market your money is safe
in real estate if you pay cash for your home
not only are you living there but the value of
that home is going up with inflation so your
cash is not rotting in your house obviously you're
saving a bucket of money on rates if you're able
to pay cash for a home and not have those finance
charges so money is safe in real estate and with
that we're still seeing a lot of investor purchases
so we're closed out 24 with $1 billion in investor
purchases in the greater Las Vegas market. As
a whole, we're kind of leading the nation when
it comes to investor purchases, us in Denver
and Phoenix, kind of the suburban sprawl where
it's easier to buy a block of homes, maybe not
on the same block, but a block of homes that
are relatively easy to manage versus a more fragmented
market on the East Coast where it's harder to
manage maybe a suburb that's 20 miles this way,
20 miles that way. So we're still leading the
nation with Investor purchases and the nation
is leading the world and the amount of investor
purchases into single -family residential So
that's yet another backstop and I think that's
putting a lot of pressure on that appreciation
and maybe that's getting getting us the Four
and five percent appreciation that we saw last
year I think it's those investor purchases and
they lean towards the entry -level market. Mm
-hmm and also thinking about buyer sentiment,
you know as we talk Obviously we're active in
the environment. So we're out talking to people
all the time and the things that we're hearing
and the sort of the thought other people are
discussing isn't necessarily Like they haven't
gotten the word yet that right that numbers are
stable and things are okay I think the average
buyer might still be a little leery or might
still be confused about where the market is or
how how rates look or feel and whether or not
now is a good time to buy. So some of these things,
while yes, they're facts, and we know that the
big picture is happening. I don't know if that
has trickled down into mainstream homebuyers.
I agree. And I think people buy homes when it's
right for them, not when it's right for the market.
But everyone is an amateur economist when it
comes to their home purchase. And I think that
you're 100 % correct in that they don't know
how to feel about the interest rates. They don't
even know what a 7 % rate translates to in a
pain they don't realize that it's true that is
a huge when most of your amortization on the
front end is interest seven percent versus three
and a half percent is a doubling of your mortgage
payment because so much of it is interest so
it is a is a really big deal so i think that
sentiment might be there i think that the generation
I'm an older millennial right so my generation
saw a lot of people get burned by owning real
estate we were coming of age when people were
actively getting burned and i know you're significantly
younger than i am but your generation was actively
burned by. That market but the newer generation
has only seen real estate be a good investment
and the younger millennials as well have only
really see it be a good investment their parents
didn't lose houses they didn't lose houses they're
tired of paying landlord. Twenty eight hundred
dollars a month for it. Three bedroom house or
twenty six hundred for a two bedroom apartment
or whatever it may be. So I think that we're
at a point now, especially three years into these
kind of elevated rates where buyers just aren't
going to put their life on hold anymore. And
we've seen that in people that we've talked to.
They're missing. They're missing out on their
life. They're missing out on their grandkids.
We just had a situation this week. We just met
with with potential buyers. Or actually, yeah.
But in any other... Sellers in a brokerage business.
Yes, exactly that. They've kind of been holding
on. They weren't sure what the market was going
to do. And, you know, it's hard to get the real
story. You're getting pieces or parts of it or,
you know, your aunt Jane has a story about when
they were little. So you're not really able to
put all of the information together. But same
thing. They've just had their life on hold. And
finally, they were going to go eat with our grandbabies.
Yeah, exactly. We're going to give up our 3 %
rate and we're going to... So in real time, I
just say that those are the stories that we have
been hearing. And now we're real time. It's happening
to our own clients. It is. So, I mean, I think
it's, imagine multiplying that times the entire
U S people just aren't going to wait forever.
They're not going to keep renting forever. They're
not going to share a room with their, their siblings
forever. They're going to start their own lives.
Right. And I think that that's what we're seeing.
A lot of people come off the fence. So that's
where I see 25 going. And I think that the court
first quarter has has indicated that i will say
in terms of the overall real estate market what
are some bright spots for buyers is that inventory
is up about 16 from last year but that only translates
to three and a half months supply versus three
months supply from this time last year you know
jan jan and feb 2024 versus now 2025 where we
we gained an extra two weeks worth of market
but for those people that don't know what that
means that Short inventory means it's still a
seller's market. So bias made a disadvantage
and still we're getting at least the trend is
correcting a little bit So thankfully we're going
in the right direction Conventional wisdom was
always six months supply was indicated Yeah,
kind of even kill anything more but But I have
been six months. Oh, since 2009, 2010, maybe.
And a lot of that was shadow inventory that couldn't
be bought and sold. It was on the market, but
it was a short sale. It was really not true market,
not true inventory. So I think what we're looking
at is a steep imbalance. And we've talked about
this in the past. There's not enough new home
construction. And we'll get to that. later but
there's not enough new home construction all
the new inventory is going to come from new construction
there's just too many people locked into their
rates that yes people are not going to wait it
out forever but there you're also only going
to find the people that are truly motivated they're
motivated to sell them move out of state to be
with their grandkids they're motivated to sell
and downsize because one of the spouses died
and they literally can't maintain the house but
there's a lot of people a lot of families that
are bursting at the seams and how badly do they
really need that fifth bedroom or can they make
it work? So I think that that's kind of what
we are seeing. So I don't want to understate,
you know, I don't want to downplay it that it
is putting downward pressure, no matter how long
we wait. And no matter how long rates are elevated,
they're still going to be downward pressure versus
3 % to 3%. And all you're doing is covering the
cost of a more expensive home. Now you're more
expensive home, and you're seeing your rate double
or if you're downsizing your mortgage payments
stay in the same because you're you bought half
the home, but had double the rate. So it's not
enough motivation there. So, you know, besides
major life events, death, divorce, what are the
five D's death, divorce? What are they? Make
up? No, there are there. Are there five of them?
Okay. Yeah, there are five. I'll get back to
that. So those those are the things that I think,
you know, are going to require the most. But
other than that, it will have some some real
downward pressure, the job changes, things like
that. So we're seeing a movement, but it's just
not it's nowhere near. What it needs to be so
the bottom line is quarter one is a boring quarter.
It's but it's good You want boring. Yes, you
want stability relative stability. So dovetailing
into mortgage rates the again the people that
are way smarter than I am are had estimates that
the rates would settle in the middle six sixes
and Probably finish the year out around six and
a half by the fourth quarter, but we've had several
Sit situations this year days that the rates
did already hit that in fact some as low as like
six and eight So we've already gone below six
and a half. So our rates are performing a little
bit better than we expected We also didn't expect
the stock market to be as tumultuous as it has
been We didn't expect there the job jobless claims
would be higher than expected. The new job creation
would be much lower than expected So the economic
data has come in worse. So it's kind of Should
we be happy that rates are performing better
because it's at what cost, but overall, if we're
at 4 % unemployment, does that mean 96 % of people
are still working? You could argue on unemployment
and a lot of things that people not looking for
jobs anymore, but we know that we still have
a very robust job market. So I don't feel that
there's a lot of pain among the middle class
and the working people of the country. I feel
like we're not in a 2008. Right. Are we going
in that direction? Absolutely not in terms of
home values, but could we see elevated unemployment
as the year takes on? I don't know. I mean, I
don't think so, but it's something that we should
keep an eye on. So that being said, if these
kind of trends continue and we see more tumultuous
stock market and inflation numbers that are still
in line, we're at 3 % January 2025. January 24,
24 was also 3%. So I know the feds target 2%.
That's an arbitrary number, but that is their
goal, which is why you're not seeing a lot of
monetary loosening. You're not seeing the feds
bring down the feds funds rate. You're just seeing
them kind of do a wait and see. So I think though
that as we know from our interest rate episode
that the feds do not dictate 30 year mortgages
they follow the t -bill I think as as a stock
market even if this is just a 10 % correction
that we almost see every year at some point in
the year a lot of times it's in May you know
sell in May and stay away I think that I think
that I think that the montage goes or the the
moniker so If we see that 10 % even if it comes
back, it's a volatility that might push investors
to quality. They say like a flock to quality.
Ten -year T -bills are backed by the full faith
and security of the US government. So it's a
pretty safe investment to be getting 4 % on your
money with a T -bill. So that's kind of where
you see, okay, well now they're just now they're
paying 3 .75 or 3 .8. So it'll be interesting
to see. But I actually think that we will settle
in lower than what's expected. I think when we
average out our 30 year fix this year, it'll
be the very low sixes. And I think we'll see
high fives at some point this year. We still
haven't seen tariffs yet. We still have many
more months of employment data to get through.
We still have nine more months worth of data.
So I have to believe that sometime in those nine
months, we're going to see a situation where
we've missed inflation numbers mean in a good
way, you know, where instead of three, we were
coming in at 2 .3 instead of unemployment at
4 .1, we're at 4 .9. I mean, little things like
that will cause a flood to the treasury market
because right now treasury yields are amazing.
The Dow ended up in the last 12 months, 10 .8
% higher. So it grew 10 .8%. So to have your
money in the stock market, you made about 10
% a year. But there's a tremendous amount of
risk in the stock market, especially if you buy
an index fund. Right, especially now. So if you
look at it, We're going to look at it. We're
going to work four and a quarter for a 10 year
T bill versus all the volatility, which is pretty
much guaranteed. And you get paid a couple of
times a year versus all the volatility of the
stock market where you don't get paid unless
you sell. So you have to realize those gains
and sell the, you know, to generate that income.
Otherwise it's just on paper. 10 year T bills,
you get paid. So there's you can see why they
are appealing right now. They're you know, they're
the red -headed stepchild No offense to the gingers
in the audience, but they you know, they're not
they would want a 10 -year treasury note for
4 % So boring my Rivian stock grew 27 % Whatever
that number is you hear all those right those
darlings and those those stories like that that
happened But unless you're really timing those
things, right? That's not common. And then if
you're taking those kinds of chances to get a
20 % return on your investment, you're probably
losing 10 % on some other investments too. So
there is definitely an appetite for treasury
bills. So that's why I think that the volatility
is going to lead to a run on treasury bills,
or at least enough to see high fives at some
point this year. I don't know if that'll last
forever, but I feel that there's enough, there's
enough vibrations in the ground that I could
see it happening. Interesting yeah, it'd be interesting.
Yeah, it'd be cool Yeah, I mean not cool because
there might be there's some untoward effects
and there's some other things that we're not
even seeing but it would be nice to feel like
the fever of these high rates is broken and That'll
really unlock a lot. I think it'll unlock a lot
of economic activity So true. Yeah, it will and
then that works so well for Home builder sentiment.
So where is construction? Where are home builders?
So we're thinking that we're going to finish
about 1 .1 million homes this year. So that's
up about 13 % from last year. Okay. And the majority
of that will be single family. And most people,
you know, we won't really know until the data
comes out, but we're expecting it to be more
entry level product. So I think it's going to
be 1 .1 million homes and Ideally in areas people
want to be in and product that people really
need so the non -glamorous entry -level stuff
Maybe one tier move up stuff that we that we
need and it will unlock a lot of So that's a
national number. We know last year las vegas
specifically built around twelve thousand what
do you think that looks like well that just based
on the trends the number of permits that have
been pulled thus far this year does that send
the number of available lots i know that we have
about nine ninety five hundred available lots
that are developed right now so that's good indication
i think that we'll probably see around the same
as we did last year maybe maybe within you know
five percent of everywhere last year so they
don't release the data as much as as uh national
trends but i think we'll I think we'll see that.
I think we'll see another 12 to 13 ,000 units
in the ground, which would include multifamily.
Right. Right. And that's obviously a best guess.
But based on what we're seeing, there isn't anything
alarming. No, that would say it should be otherwise.
So we're right on trend with what we might think
in order to meet that same. Which rounds for
the end of the year, right? Which I was, I bet
my tongue about to say, not literally. Uh, there's
a lot of factors that could stop that. So if
we see, because it's going to lead into the next
topic. So well, if you see a lot of fear on tariffs
and you see a lot of fear on supply chain and
you see a lot of fear of, you know, around deportations
and immigration policy changes, and there's a
fear that home values are stagnant. So if the
cost of goods goes up tremendously because of
tariffs because tariffs because of manpower and
workforce That those homebuyer that's gonna come
out of homebuyer margins. So it's the same argument
over tariffs Okay, if you add a 12 % tariff How
do you know that the consumer is gonna pay it
because ultimately the consumer demand has to
be there and that's true So homes are a commodity
though that cannot be moved. You know, it's largely
non fungible. It can't be replicated. You can't
just sell your wares somewhere else. If you're
an importer to the US and you're avoiding tariffs,
you can still charge your same premium and charge
a tariff because you might export to other markets.
We can't do that in the new home construction.
I can't be an exporter. So I'm stuck with what
I have. So if the buyer demand is not there,
it's going to take a while for that to work through
because what you're going to have to see is home
builders dialing back. And saying well because
the cost to build went up 15 or 20 % which I've
lived through in 2020 and 2021 I lived through
that but I was it was masked because that same
year home values went up 27 % and especially
the markets that I was building in that you know
that that luxury or entry -level luxury market
really saw a spike because there were a lot of
people that became really asset rich and their
stocks and with maybe they own businesses and
had some stimulus and they you got some PPP loans
and things that really made them feel very rich.
And that market that 1 .2 to $2 .5 million market
really went nuts. And the greater market went
nuts, too, as a whole in Las Vegas, at least
in the country. But I think that what does that
look like when tariffs increase the cost of a
home labor shortages and workforce shortages
due to changing immigration policy? inflate the
price of labor. What does that look like? I don't
know. Do these big publicly traded companies
still want to put all that all those homes in
the ground just because it's already in the books
and they're paying maybe paying interest on it
or maybe they've committed that for the quarterly
numbers they want to hit their numbers and they'll
just allow that they're they'll they'll take
it instead of 27 % margin maybe they're at a
21 % margin or do they hold off and not build
5 % of their inventory 10 % of the inventory
we already talked about how many Homes are dominated
by about three builders. How many of that 12
,000 will be? Represented by about three builders
probably half of it Just by three builders and
there's other publicly traded builders in our
market So if they if they collectively pull back
10 % that's a big number Yeah, it's thousands
of homes. That's gonna be the one thing that's
gonna that's going to be the variable But you
can see how that will take a minute to work its
way through Prices that will ultimately have
upward pressure on prices, but it takes a minute
to bear it out even happen this year. I don't
know. I don't think if they do pull back and
you two or three. No, because deliveries maybe
Q4 because it's a six month delivery start to
feel right because they've already started. They're
not going to right. They've already started.
They're not going to dial back just because of
tariffs. They're going to finish those homes
like everything I have in the ground. We're going
to finish. It doesn't matter, but it could affect
my Decision going forward. So starts the new
starts and say how aggressive do I want to be
until we get through some of these tariffs? Are
these just negotiating tools? Are they tactics?
And is it something that I have overpaid for
things and supply chain crunches? I did it a
lot in 2020 2021. Everybody did I had to you
had to and I bought lumber at the absolute peak
I bought an entire lumber package for house.
And it was like, I was probably the one that
set that peak, because then the next day it fell,
not fell, not precipitously, but it started its
downward trend enough to where I could have said,
Oh, why don't I just wait a month? But if I had
five or six on the ground, right, it would have
been times five or six at that stage. So, um,
I think that it will, it'll work its way through.
Home building is such a long kind of drawn out
process. Maybe it just doesn't. Maybe maybe it
irons out all these temporary blips and news.
It's not like the stock market where you can
literally watch it on CNBC in real time. You
can watch your wealth go rise and fall home building
is just not that way. There's not I've said it
before. There's not enough elasticity in the
supply and in the demand to have it affected
that quickly. So I think it'll iron it out. I'm
not really that worried about it. I think that
there's enough margin as a builder. I know there's
enough margin and you're going to want There
are a few businesses that have the kind of margins
that we enjoy. So you're, you're going to take
22 % margin versus 28 % with the hope that maybe
home values go up 3 % in that same amount of
time and kind of offset some of those, some of
those losses, but I can't predict how a publicly
traded company will act. They have boards, they
have shareholders. And they have a national spread,
so sometimes they'll do really well in one market
and not so well in another, so they can cover
those overages or underages in order to make
the overall goals. Yeah, exactly. They report
quarterly earners for one company. That's it.
They don't care about Las Vegas. Those division
presidents have to report to that, but they're
not really... But as a builder when you're selling
against other builders in our market and you
see somebody take a huge you know it's the end
of their fiscal year so you see them take huge
incentives or offer something that you're like
well wow what is happening here it's because
maybe their market here has done well but they're
trying to make up for a margin in another market
right and then apply here because it's doing
well soon. Right. Yes. Yes. And for us, you know,
Trust Home Builders is a local brand. So we just
get the Vegas market to use as our par. Right.
So I think those are, that's where we're sitting.
And in quarter one, end of quarter four, 2024,
we knew there would be threats of tariffs. We
kind of knew where the administration was going
to lead. and set the tone of the country. But
I didn't expect it to kind of start to play out
this early, where we have hard numbers on tariffs
and we have hard dates on when they're supposed
to start. You know, we were supposed to start
last week and it got pushed to April 2nd. So
it'll be very interesting. And a lot of these
trade organizations, National Association Home
Builders is one of them, are lobbying the administration
to say, look, can you carve this out? Can you
carve this out? It'd be funny if we end up with
Swiss cheese and only... Only a few things are
tariffed, like some of the crap of the dollar
store. Maybe we could tariff that stuff. Can
we keep lumber? You know, can we keep lumber
off the table and aluminum? So on that topic,
this study is, or the prevailing wisdom is that
tariffs are going to add Around ten thousand
dollars to the cost of an average home in material
cost So we build probably to twice the average,
right? I would say our average home trust home.
There's probably two times the size of the average
home So I think it'll probably cost us around
twenty thousand dollars extra material costs
So when I look at my budget for an entire home,
that's not enough for me to make decisions over
It just isn't I can I can have a utility surprise.
It's more than that So I'm not going to make
any changes to my projections and my goals and
my projects that are interesting in the pipeline.
There's just no, I can't. Yeah. You can't. You're
building $30 million at the home. You're going
to make a decision over an extra $250 ,000, which
is about what got to for all the houses. You're
going to make a decision over that. You pivot
for something that may or may not come to fruition.
Exactly. So I just can't. So it's not enough
for me to make major changes. So if it is interesting,
though, you realize how much of the build industry
is relying on imports. Around 30 % of our lumber
comes from Canada. We source about 60 % domestically.
The other 10 % we get from Brazil. We get from
Mexico. We get just from an assortment of other
countries. So if we increase those right now,
the Department of Commerce already had a 14 .5
% tariff on lumber. On the second, it's expected
to be 39 .5 % because it's supposed to add another
25 % because it's from a different department.
And then the Department of Commerce wants to
add another, they want to double the 14 and a
half percent tariff in addition to the new executive
branch tariff. So we could see tariffs as high
as 60 % on lumber from Canadian lumber by the
end of the year. So that'll be interesting, but
we're already at 12%. And a lumber package, just
to pull back the curtain a little bit, a lumber
package on a luxury home. You know what a good
rule of thumb, a lumber package on a house is
around $10 a square foot. It's going to depend
on ceiling heights and different things. That's
not including your trusses, your floor trusses,
your roof trusses, but a lumber package is around.
So if you build a 4 ,000 square foot home, it's
$40 ,000. That's a great little tidbit. So if
you're a retail customer, I'm a technically a
retail lumber buyer because I'm buying from a
supplier, several down chains and not buying
from the lumber mill. Right. or not importing
it directly. So if you think how much of that,
because that's just off of the imported cost.
So if the imported cost is roughly half of that,
usually every person that touches it, it doubles,
right? Generally speaking. So that means that
$40 ,000 package may be a $20 ,000 import, but
already had a 14 % tariff on it at that time.
So maybe the raw cost was $17 ,000. So if we
add 60 % tariff to that, That's around $8 ,500.
It's called 9 ,000. So instead of 40 ,000, I'm
at 9 ,000. And that's if they went all the way
up to 60%. But will there be downward pressure
on Canadian lumber prices because of those tariffs?
Will domestic lumber go up in value because it
will kind of reach a middle ground? So we'll
see. Ultimately, the demand has to be there.
You hear tariffs, but you're not really sure
how they apply specifically. So you take it all
the way back to that lumber cost where you have
a hard fact, it has to happen in every home that's
built. And then how does that change your number
right on the front end? So I love that you were
able to offer some insight and real numbers.
So good fact. It's hard because everyone thinks
lumber is 50 % of a house, Kyle. A house cost
a million dollars. Oh, lumber must be about half
a million dollars. That's just not the case.
So it's not really a big, I mean, it's one of
the biggest line items, but I spend more on tile
and flooring and I spend more on, on cabinetry.
So it's not a big, I mean, it's a big, but it's
not as a percentage of a build cost. It's around
5 % of the construction cost interest. Trust
is what you would think it'd be more trust is
add another 5 % to that. So roughly trust is
in numbers about 10%. So entrusts is obviously
are made of lumber. So you think trust prices
are going to go up as well. Um, higher percentage
is the concrete and that's such a, yeah. Yeah.
That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Concrete, the aluminum
wire. Right. Right. And gypsum, a lot of gypsum
for drywall is important. So there's, there's
things, I mean, but we got to remember now, barring
any labor shocks from immigration policy changes,
really, we're only talking about the materials.
So the materials are on around half the cost
of a home so even if every single thing were
imported and every single thing had a tariff
on it every single thing and there were no car
violence and it's still it would yeah of course
it would shrink our margins but it's not devastating
to the industry that's good to hear because you
don't really know what you're what you're up
against in terms of every industry it's scared
i mean i think it's scary a lot of things it
is scary and it's unknown because that's what
makes it scary unknown yeah because no no business
owner wants to wants any unknown but that's just
why you're a business yeah because if it was
simple everyone would do it true true that's
all i have i do have that the average tree is
harvested at 25 years i don't know if the audience
wanted to know that they might they might have
and if we're all putting up christmas trees that
could become very important in december so recycle
your trees for lumber So thank you yeah really
good information and overall nice to hear that
there hasn't been anything too alarming and obviously
we don't have a crystal ball we're not able to
predict any of this with a hundred percent accuracy
but as we trend through and like you said just
to get a temperature on it so we're getting a
temperature on what is happening this year the
direction that we're going and we'll do another
update as we get into the end of second quarter
third quarter and then we'll see how the year
ends out but for now. pleased to hear that not
too much is changing and a lot of not too much
news is good news so very happy yeah good well
thanks for joining us on this episode of trust
the process podcast and we'll look forward to
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