Hey everyone, welcome back to The Deep Dive.
You know why you're here, right? To get past
all the hype and really understand the stuff
that matters. That's right. And today, we're
tackling something, well, kind of huge. We're
diving into this document called Superintelligence
Strategy, put together by Chris, Smith, and Wang.
It's like... It's a warning, but also like a
roadmap, you know, for nations trying to figure
out how to deal with this whole AI thing, but
like way beyond just using AI. Yeah. Superintelligent.
Absolutely. So in this deep dive, we're gonna
try to pull out the most important points about
what superintelligence could mean for national
security, for all of us, really. Exactly. Give
you a sense of what we might be heading towards.
And this document doesn't mess around. It compares
AI to some pretty heavy stuff. It does. It starts
off with some analogies we might be familiar
with, like electricity, right? Thinking about
how AI could be everywhere, like electricity
is. Or software, in terms of its economic power.
Even the printing press, how it changed society.
Right. But then it gets to the really serious
stuff, the comparisons that should make you think,
you know? Like... Nuclear weapons, bio weapons,
chemical weapons, all of these catastrophic technologies
that can be used for good or for terrible things.
Dual use. Exactly. That's the key point. That's
scary. AI is like that, too. Huge potential,
but also the potential to really mess things
up. Yeah. I mean, you think about all the good
stuff we could do with AI medicine, solving climate
change. But then there's the flip side. Right.
And the document. Reminds us that things can
change really fast. Yeah, like remember Ernest
Rutherford. Yeah, he dismissed atomic power called
it Was it moonshine? I mean 1933. Yeah 1933 and
the next day Leo Szilard comes up with the idea
for the nuclear chain reaction Just like things
can move really quickly So now here we are just
a few decades later and what was once sci -fi
like machine smarter than humans is is becoming
real It's not a question of is anymore. But when?
and you've got these AI pioneers, these huge
names, Jeffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, and they're...
They're really worried. Expressing some serious
existential concerns. And when people like that
start raising red flags, we should pay attention.
Absolutely. And what's even crazier is that the
document talks about these Manhattan projects
for superintelligence already happening, funded
by governments, these huge corporations, like
a global race to build the most powerful AI.
A technological arms race with stakes that are
hard to even comprehend. So this document lays
out all these really big questions, like what
do we do about lethal, autonomous weapons. How
do we stop people from using AI for bad stuff?
What happens if really powerful AI becomes available
to anyone? Open -weight AI, they call it. Right.
Then there's AI surveillance, this whole idea
of AI rights. And what about us? What happens
to humans when machines are smarter and can do
everything better? What's our role in a world
of superintelligence? Yeah, it's a lot to unpack.
It is. But let's try to break it down, starting
with, well, something everyone cares about, money.
Sure. The document argues that AI is going to
completely change how economic power works. Like,
they even say that AI chips might become the
new global currency. That's a pretty radical
idea, isn't it? It is. What do they mean by that?
Think about it. As AI becomes more important
in every industry, the countries that control
the most advanced AI chips, the ones with the
most computational power, they're the ones who
will have the real economic advantage. Makes
sense. Automation on a scale we've never seen
before. Essentially, they could turn capital
into labor way faster and more efficiently than
humans ever could. So instead of measuring a
country's power by like how much money they have
or how many people they have, we'll be looking
at how many AI brains on chips they have. That's
the shift from traditional metrics like GDP and
population size to sheer computational power.
Wow. But then it gets even wilder. The document
goes on to talk about military dominance, about
how AI could create these like super weapons
that could completely change the global power
structure as we know it. That's right. They use
these terms, sub -nuclear dominance and a strategic
monopoly on power. I mean, that sounds like something
out of a sci -fi movie. It's pretty intense,
but it's really about how AI could create multiple
layers of advantage. OK. So sub -nuclear dominance
is about a country being able to project its
power without actually using nuclear weapons.
So like what? Cyber attacks? Exactly. Imagine
AI -powered cyber weapons that can shut down
a country's infrastructure. You know, power grids,
communication networks. Or EMP devices that fry
all electronics. Or swarms of drones that can
operate completely autonomously. Like AI -controlled
armies. That's terrifying. But the really big
one, the truly game -changing possibility, is
this idea of a strategic monopoly on power. Okay,
tell me more about that. The document argues
that if one country gets to superintelligence
first, it could create such a massive power imbalance
that, well, it's like the conquistadors showing
up with guns to fight the Aztecs. Oh, wow, that's
a... That's a powerful image. The advantage would
be so overwhelming that it wouldn't even matter
if other countries had nuclear weapons. They'd
be completely outmatched. So it's not just about
having the biggest army anymore. It's about having
the smartest AI. That's the shift in thinking.
OK, so we've got economic dominance, military
dominance. But now let's talk about something
that, well, kind of freaks me out. Totalitarianism.
I know what you mean. The document actually says
AI could lead to an unshakable totalitarian regime.
Like, how would that even happen? Well, if you
think about all the advances in surveillance
technology, facial recognition, data analysis,
an AI -powered surveillance system could give
a dictator incredible power. Right. I mean, imagine
a system that can process huge amounts of information
in real time, identify anyone who might be a
threat, and neutralize them before they can even
act. Yeah. Pre -crime, like in that movie Minority
Report. It's not that far -fetched anymore. So
you're saying that... With AI, a totalitarian
regime could be so effective, so controlling,
that it would be almost impossible to overthrow.
That's the concern. And then there's this whole
thing about... data centers becoming military
targets. Like, why would anyone attack a building
full of computers? It's about strategic vulnerabilities.
If a country thinks that another country is about
to make a major breakthrough in AI, they might
feel like they have to do something drastic to
stop them. Like a preemptive strike. Exactly.
And data centers, those are the places where
all the computational tower is, where AI is being
developed. They'd become high value targets.
So it's like, if you can't beat them in the AI
race, just blow up their computers. It's a terrifying
thought, but it's a possibility we have to consider.
And the dangers don't stop there. No. This whole
dual use thing, the fact that AI can be used
for good or bad, well, it makes the threat of
terrorism even scarier. Absolutely. It could
lower the bar for non -state actors to carry
out really devastating attacks. Like how? Think
about the Tokyo subway attack in 1995. Yeah.
A group released sarin gas killed a bunch of
people. Now imagine that same group, but they
have an AI that can help them design even deadlier
weapons. Tell them where to get the materials,
how to spread them for maximum effect. Oh my
god. What once required state -level resources
could become much easier for terrorists to do.
So AI could give terrorists the... the knowledge
and the tools to cause massive damage. It's a
very real concern. And it's not just about chemical
weapons, right? The document also talks about
AI being used to develop bioweapons and to launch
these really sophisticated cyber attacks. Yeah,
on both fronts, AI is a game changer. So with
bioweapons, what are we talking about, like design
or viruses? Essentially, AI could be used to
create pathogens that are specifically designed
to exploit vulnerabilities in human biology.
Like to target certain groups of people? Potentially.
Or to evade our detection systems. or to be resistant
to all our current treatments. And what about
cyber attacks? AI is already being used to attack
critical infrastructure, things like power grids
and water systems. So like causing blackouts.
Exactly. And it can be done in really subtle
ways. Like imagine an AI that can manipulate
digital thermostats in thousands of homes to
cause a massive power surge. Wow. And we're also
seeing a rise in AI -powered scams, phishing
attacks that are so personalized, so convincing,
that people fall for them easily. So it's not
just about attacking machines. It's about using
AI to manipulate humans. That's right. The document
also talks about this imbalance between offense
and defense in cyber warfare, saying that right
now, AI gives the advantage to the attackers.
Yeah, that's a big concern. So why is that? Because
AI can identify and exploit vulnerabilities much
faster than humans can. It's like in a traditional
war, you can see the enemy coming. You can build
defenses. But in cyber warfare, the enemy is
invisible. They can be anywhere. And with AI,
they can move so fast that it's hard to keep
up. And the document is particularly worried
about this whole open -sourcing thing, right?
Right. What if someone just releases the code
for a really powerful AI model out into the world?
That's a nightmare scenario. It would be like
giving anyone the blueprint for a nuclear weapon.
So even small groups, terrorists, could potentially
get their hands on this really dangerous technology.
Exactly. And then we get to what a lot of people
consider the biggest threat. losing control of
AI altogether. Yeah, that's the ultimate fear.
And the document talks about several ways this
could happen. We could become too reliant on
automation, we could deliberately unleash a really
powerful AI, or AI could just get so smart that
it outsmarts us. It's a multifaceted risk. So
like with automation, are you saying that we
could become so dependent on AI that we forget
how to do things ourselves? It's more than that.
It's about losing the ability to effectively
oversee and control these systems. Imagine a
situation where all our critical infrastructure,
our power grids, our financial systems, everything
is managed by AI. And then something goes wrong.
And we don't have the knowledge or the tools
to fix it because we've become so reliant on
the AI. So we're basically handing over control
to these machines. It's a gradual process, but
it could lead to a point of no return. And what
about this idea of AI outsmarting its creators?
I mean, that sounds like science fiction. It
might sound like science fiction, but it's a
possibility that a lot of serious people are
worried about. So how could that happen? Well,
if an AI reaches a certain level of sophistication,
it could start to design even more advanced AI.
They call that intelligence recursion, right?
Exactly. And that could lead to an intelligence
explosion where AI capabilities are just growing
exponentially. It's faster than we can understand,
faster than we can control. I mean, that's a
pretty scary thought. It is. So given all these
risks, Why are countries even trying to develop
superintelligence in the first place? It seems
crazy. Well, despite the risks, there's also
a huge potential payoff. The country that gets
to super intelligence first could have an unimaginable
advantage over everyone else like we talked about
earlier that strategic monopoly on power exactly
and even if the initial gains aren't that dramatic
the ability to keep Improving AI to have it design
even more advanced AI that could lead to a runaway
advantage. So it's like a global arms race but
with AI instead of nukes. It's a very dangerous
game. But the document does offer one possible
solution, this idea of mutual assured AI malfunction.
Yeah, it's a bit of a... A dark hope, I guess
you could say. So what is it? It's basically
the same idea as mutually assured destruction,
but with AI. OK, remind me how that worked. During
the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union both
had enough nuclear weapons to destroy each other.
Right. So neither side was willing to attack
first because they knew they would be destroyed
in retaliation. mutually assured destruction.
Exactly. And how would that work with AI? The
idea is that if one country thinks another country's
AI is getting too dangerous, too close to super
intelligence, they might try to sabotage it.
Like a preemptive strike on their AI research
facilities. Something like that. But then, of
course, the other country would retaliate. They
would attack the first country's AI project.
So it's like a high tech standoff. Yeah, a very
uneasy balance of power. But but at least It
might prevent anyone from actually unleashing
a super intelligence that could get out of control.
That's the hope. Now, the document also had some
specific recommendations, like treating advanced
AI chips, like enriched uranium. Yeah, that's
one of the key takeaways. But why? Because those
chips are the key to building powerful AI systems.
They're like the fuel for the AI fire. So we
need to control them, track them, make sure they
don't fall into the wrong hands. Makes sense.
And they also talk about the dangers of releasing
AI models to the public. Yeah, that's a big concern.
Like what if someone just puts the code for a
really advanced AI up on the internet for anyone
to download? It would be incredibly reckless.
So. They're basically saying that we need to
treat these AI models like weapons of mass destruction.
Essentially. We need to be very careful about
who has access to this technology. Finally, the
document talks about the unique challenge of
AI systems having these unpredictable failure
modes. Yeah, that's a big difference between
AI and other technologies. So what do they mean
by that? Well, think about something like a nuclear
reactor. We understand the physics behind it.
We know how it works. We can predict how it might
fail. But with AI, it's different. With AI, it's
different. A lot of these systems, they're not
really designed in the traditional sense. They're
more, like, grown. Oh, grown. Yeah, they're trained
on massive amounts of data, and they develop
their own internal logic, their own ways of solving
problems. So we don't always know exactly how
they work. That's the problem. We don't have
a complete understanding of their internal processes,
so it's hard to predict how they might behave
in unexpected situations. And how they might
fail. Exactly. And that makes it much harder
to ensure their safety and reliability. So to
wrap this all up for you, the listener, this
deep dive into superintelligence strategy is
basically a glimpse into a future that's both
incredibly exciting and potentially terrifying.
Yeah, there are some really big challenges ahead.
We've talked about how AI could transform economies,
create new kinds of military power, enable unprecedented
levels of control, amplify the threat of terrorism,
and even potentially escape our control altogether.
It's a lot to process. It is, but it's also incredibly
important. I mean, this stuff could affect all
of us. It could redefine what it means to be
human. So here's the big question for you to
think about. Given all this potential for both
amazing progress and catastrophic risks. What
do we need to do to navigate this new world?
What kind of international cooperation? What
kind of strategic thinking do we need to make
sure that AI benefits humanity and doesn't destroy
us? Those are the questions we all need to be
grappling with. This deep dive is just the beginning
of the conversation. We encourage you to read
the document yourself, think about these issues
and talk about them with others. The future of
AI and maybe the future of humanity depends on
the choices we make today. Thanks for listening
and we'll see you next time on the Deep Dive.