All right, so are you ready to dive into this AI stuff?
There's some crazy predictions in here.
Yeah, it's exciting, isn't it?
Stuff we have to go through today.
I know, I've got all the stuff you sent me,
the video transcript, your notes.
Did you get a chance to skim Altman's blog post too?
Oh yeah, I did, the one from a couple weeks ago, right?
Right, I wanted to get your take on all of this,
you know, with your background.
Oh yeah, well, my background's a little different,
but I think I can keep up.
I think so too, yeah.
Okay, so it seems like the big theme here
is like this intelligence explosion, right,
where AI just kind of takes off.
Right, and it's not just like,
oh, AI is getting a little bit better.
It's like, whoa, it's a million times better.
Like it's gonna blow past us, right?
And this paper, the, what was it called?
The situational awareness one.
Yeah, yeah, that one, it kind of lays out
how this could actually happen.
It's really fascinating, it talks about how,
you know, right now, AI is learning for us, right,
from the data we feed it.
Yeah.
But what happens when it starts learning from itself.
Right.
And generated its own knowledge,
like making its own discoveries.
Yeah, like a snowball effect,
and it just keeps getting smarter and smarter.
Exactly.
And according to Altman,
we might be closer to that than we think.
Yeah, he said something about like two orders of magnitude.
Yeah, so like, you know, GPT-3 to GPT-4,
that was a huge leap, right?
Oh yeah.
Like a hundred times more powerful
as one order of magnitude.
Sink two more leaps like that and boom.
Wow.
And that could happen, what, in a few years?
Potentially, yeah.
I mean, the pace of development is incredible.
I know, it's kind of scary, right?
Like it's exciting, but also,
whoa, are we ready for this?
I think that's the big question.
Are we ready for the intelligence explosion?
Yeah.
And how do we make sure it's a good thing, you know,
that it benefited humanity?
Right, that it doesn't, you know,
decide we're not useful anymore.
Exactly, it's a big responsibility,
figuring all this out.
Okay, so I gotta ask you about this AI coder thing,
because that blew my mind.
Like by the end of the year,
an AI could be the best programmer in the world.
Yeah, that's what Altman is predicting.
It's pretty wild, right?
I mean, I can barely write a line of code,
but the AI will be like churning out perfect code in seconds.
It's gonna change everything.
Think about AlphaGo, remember that?
Yeah, vaguely.
It learned to play go by playing against itself, right?
Oh yeah, and it ended up beating the world champion.
Right, and they're applying a similar approach to coding.
Let the AI learn by doing, by creating and testing code.
So it's not just like copying existing code,
it's actually coming up with new solutions.
Exactly, and the results are already amazing.
OpenAI has an AI that's already in the top 50
among competitive programmers worldwide.
Top 50, that's insane.
So okay, here's the big question.
What happens to all the human programmers?
That's what everyone wants to know, right?
Are the robots coming for our jobs?
Yeah, seriously.
I don't think it's that simple.
I think it's more about augmentation, not replacement.
So like working with the AI?
Exactly, imagine having an AI coding assistant
that's like the best programmer in the world,
right at your fingertips.
So instead of spending hours trying to debug something,
I could just like tell the AI what I want
and it would just do it.
That's the idea.
And it could free up human programmers
to focus on the more creative aspects,
the big picture stuff.
Okay, but still, a lot of people
are gonna be worried about their jobs, right?
For sure, and it's a valid concern.
We need to figure out how to transition
into this new world of work.
How to prepare people for the jobs of the future.
Right, because it's happening fast.
Like even faster than we thought.
Yeah, Moore's law is still relevant,
but AI is advancing even faster than that.
Moore's law, that's the one about computers
getting twice as powerful every, what,
two years or something?
Every 18 months, yeah.
But AI is leveraging something even more powerful,
test time compute.
Test time compute, what is that?
Sounds kind of intimidating.
It's basically the idea that AI can keep getting better
even while it's working on a problem.
It's like it has time to think.
So instead of just giving the first answer it comes up with,
it can analyze different options, optimize its approach.
Exactly, it's like having a super smart assistant
that's constantly learning and improving.
So it's not just about the initial training data,
it's about how much thinking the AI can do in real time.
Right, and this is giving rise to what they call
thinking models AI systems
that are constantly learning and adapting.
Okay, so how much faster is this approach
compared to traditional methods?
Altman suggests the cost of using AI
at any given intelligence level
is falling 10 fold every 12 months.
Wow, that's crazy.
No wonder this feels like such a big deal.
It's a fundamental shift in how we solve problems,
create value, how we interact with the world.
Yeah, like everything is changing around us
and it's all happening so fast.
And that's why it's so important
to understand the potential impacts, both good and bad.
We need to be prepared for what's coming.
Okay, well let's talk about some of those impacts.
We've touched on the AI coders
and this intelligence explosion,
but how is all of this going to affect the future of work?
Like for everyday people?
It's kind of crazy when you think about
how what seemed impossible, like just a few years ago,
is now like totally normal.
Yeah, what do you mean, like flying cars?
I'm still waiting on those.
No, not quite.
But like imagine explaining to someone 30 years ago
that you could have like a tiny computer.
In your pocket.
Yeah, they could access basically
all the information in the world.
Oh yeah, yeah.
They'd probably think you were crazy,
like from Star Trek or something.
Right, but today we're like,
oh yeah, my phone could do that, no big deal.
And my phone probably has more power
than those old computers they used to like
land on the moon, right?
Totally, and Altman talks about this in his blog post too.
He uses the example of transistors.
Transistors, those little things inside computers.
Yeah, they're like the building blocks
of all modern electronics, phones, computers, even cars.
But nobody really thinks about them, right?
They're just kind of there doing their thing.
Exactly, they're essential but invisible.
And Altman thinks AI could be the same way.
Like just woven into our lives
even if we don't always realize it.
Right, but even more transformative.
Because AI isn't just about making things faster or smaller,
it's about changing how we solve problems.
How so?
Well, think about it.
What if AI could help us design like totally new materials
or optimize our cities to be more efficient?
Or even like personalize education for every student.
Exactly, AI could revolutionize every aspect of our lives
and create incredible economic growth in the process.
Because it's not just doing things better,
it's doing things we couldn't even imagine before.
Right, exactly.
It's like opening up a whole new world of possibilities.
Okay, so that's the big picture.
But what about right now?
What are some concrete examples of AI making a difference?
Well, one area where we're already seeing
huge progress is in healthcare.
Really?
Like how?
For example, AI is being used to analyze medical images
like X-rays and MRIs.
So like instead of a doctor having to look at them.
The doctor still looks at them,
but the AI can help them detect things they might miss.
Like a second set of eyes but way more powerful.
Exactly, it can help diagnose diseases like cancer earlier
and more accurately.
Wow, that's amazing.
So it's not replacing doctors,
it's helping them do their jobs better.
Right.
And it can also help personalize treatment plans
based on a patient's individual needs and genetic makeup.
So like medicine tailored just for you, that's incredible.
It's really exciting stuff.
And that's just one example.
AI is also being used to tackle climate change.
Climate change, how can AI help with that?
Well, for one thing,
it can help us analyze the huge amounts of data
we have about the climate.
So we can understand what's happening better.
Right, and make more accurate predictions about the future.
And then hopefully come up with better solutions.
Exactly.
AI can also help us optimize energy consumption,
design more sustainable cities,
even develop new technologies to capture carbon
from the atmosphere.
Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom.
AI can actually help us solve some of the biggest problems
we're facing.
Absolutely.
But of course there are also risks and challenges
we need to be aware of.
Yeah, let's talk about those.
We've all heard about the potential for job losses.
Right, that's a big one.
As AI becomes more capable,
it's likely to automate many jobs
that are currently done by humans.
Especially jobs that are like repetitive or predictable, right?
Exactly.
And this could lead to significant unemployment,
especially in fields like manufacturing and transportation.
Because if a company can use AI
to do the work faster and cheaper,
why would they keep paying human workers?
It's a valid concern.
And it's something we need to start thinking about now.
How do we prepare people for the jobs of the future?
How do we ensure that everyone benefits from AI,
not just a select few?
Yeah, because otherwise we could end up with a society
where the gap between the rich and the poor
just keeps getting wider.
Right, it's not just about the technology itself,
it's about how we use it.
We need to make sure that AI is used
to create a more equitable and just society.
Okay, so job displacement is one big concern.
What other risks should we be thinking about?
Well, there's also the potential for AI to be misused,
you know, for malicious purposes.
Like what?
Well, for example, AI could be used
to develop autonomous weapons systems.
Weapons that can think for themselves.
That's kind of terrifying.
It's definitely a cause for concern.
And it raises a lot of ethical questions
about how we develop and deploy AI.
We need to make sure that we have safeguards in place.
Okay, so we've got killer robots to worry about.
What else?
Well, there's also the question of AI bias.
You know, AI algorithms are trained on data, right?
Yeah.
And if that data is biased, the AI will be biased too.
So like, if the AI is trained on data
that's mostly from men, it might not be very good
at understanding or responding to women.
Exactly, and that could lead to all sorts of problems
from discrimination and hiring to unfair treatment
by law enforcement.
So we need to make sure that the data we use to train AI
is diverse and representative of the real world.
Right, and we need to be constantly monitoring AI systems
for bias and making adjustments as needed.
Okay, all this is a lot to take in.
It seems like there's a lot of potential for good,
but also a lot of potential for harm.
It's a double-edged sword, for sure.
But I think it's important to remember that AI is a tool.
And like any tool, it can be used for good
or for evil.
It all depends on who's wielding it, right?
Exactly, and that's why it's so important
to have these conversations to raise awareness
about the potential risks and benefits of AI
so that we can make informed decisions
about how we develop and deploy this technology.
We've all seen those sci-fi movies
where the AI becomes super intelligent
and takes over the world.
Is that something we should actually be worried about?
Well, it's important to distinguish
between science fiction and reality.
While those scenarios might make for good movies,
most experts agree that we're still a long way
from creating AI that can fully think for itself.
So we're not gonna have a terminator situation
anytime soon?
Probably not.
But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be careful.
Even if AI doesn't become evil in the traditional sense,
there's still the potential for unintended consequences.
Like it could just make a mistake
that has huge repercussions.
Exactly, or it could be used by humans
for purposes that we didn't anticipate or intend.
So it's not just about the AI itself,
it's about the humans who are creating it and using it.
Right, we need to be thinking
about the ethical implications of AI
from the very beginning.
And we need to make sure that we're developing AI
in a way that aligns with our values as a society.
All this is getting pretty deep.
It's easy to feel overwhelmed by all this stuff.
I know, it's a lot.
But I think it's important to have these conversations.
The more we talk about AI,
the better equipped we'll be to make informed decisions
about its future.
And to make sure that it's used for good, not for harm.
Exactly, it's up to us to shape the future of AI.
And to make sure that it benefits all of humanity.
Okay, so we've talked about the practical stuff,
the jobs, the risks, the ethics.
But now I wanna get into the really big questions.
Oh yeah, like what?
Like what does all this mean for humanity?
Are we on the verge of creating something
that's actually smarter than us?
And if so, what does that even mean?
It really makes you think, doesn't it?
Like what does it even mean to be intelligent?
Right, I mean, we've always thought of intelligence
as like a human thing.
Yeah, like we're the smartest ones around.
Exactly, but AI is challenging that assumption.
Because it can do things that we can't, right?
Like process information, add incredible speeds,
make complex calculations.
Right, but is that all there is to intelligence?
Like can a computer really be intelligent
if it doesn't have emotions or consciousness?
Yeah, that's the big question, isn't it?
Like what's the difference between
a really advanced algorithm and actual like awareness?
It's a question philosophers have been debating for centuries.
And that was becoming a practical question too.
Because AI is getting so good
at mimicking human behavior.
Like we've talked about AI writing poetry
and composing music.
Yeah, and creating art,
even having conversations that seem like totally natural.
So if it looks like it's thinking
and acts like it's thinking,
does that mean it actually is thinking?
That's the million dollar question.
And I don't think anyone has the N of yet.
It's kind of freaky, right?
Like we're creating something
that we don't even fully understand.
It's definitely a bit unsettling,
but it's also incredibly exciting.
Exciting?
How so?
Well, think about it.
We're pushing the boundaries of what's possible.
We're exploring the nature of intelligence itself.
Who knows what we might discover?
Okay, I see your point.
It's like the ultimate scientific frontier.
Exactly.
And it's not just about science.
It's about what it means to be human.
Because if we create something that's smarter than us,
does that make us less human?
I don't think so.
I think it actually makes us more human.
More human, how?
Because it forces us to confront our own limitations,
to ask the big questions about what makes us unique.
Like what is it that makes us human
if a machine can do everything we can do but better?
Right.
And I think the answer lies in our capacity for empathy,
for compassion, for love.
Those are the things that make us truly human.
The things that AI can't replicate
no matter how smart it gets.
Exactly.
And I think that's a good thing.
Because it means that we'll always have something to offer.
Even in a world where AI is everywhere,
we'll still be needed.
Absolutely.
And I think the relationship between humans and AI
will be one of partnership, not competition.
Like working together to solve problems,
create new things.
Right, using AI to enhance our abilities, not replace us.
That's a much more hopeful vision than the whole robots
taking over the world scenario.
Yeah, I think so too.
But it's up to us to make that vision a reality.
By making sure AI is developed ethically, responsibly.
Exactly.
We need to be thoughtful, cautious, but also optimistic.
It's a lot to balance, right?
But I think we're up to the challenge.
I think so too.
I mean, we've faced big challenges before.
And we've always found a way to adapt and overcome.
It's kind of like the next chapter in the human story.
Exactly.
And who knows what amazing things we'll create together.
Well, this has been an incredible deep dive.
We've covered so much ground from the technical stuff
to the philosophical stuff.
And everything in between.
It's been mind blowing, to be honest,
and a little bit scary at times.
I know what you mean.
It's a lot to process.
But I think it's important that we have these conversations,
that we start thinking about these issues now.
Because the future is coming, whether we're ready for it or not.
And it's up to us to shape it.
Exactly.
We have the power to create the future we want.
A future where AI is used for good,
to make the world a better place for everyone.
That's the goal, right?
To use our intelligence, both human and artificial,
to build a brighter future.
And on that note, I think it's time to wrap up this deep dive.
Thank you for joining us on this incredible journey
into the world of AI.
We hope you learned something that you're inspired
and maybe even a little bit terrified.
Ha, ha, ha.
Yeah, the healthy dose of fear is always good.
Keeps us on our toes.
But seriously, this is just the beginning of the conversation.
And we encourage you to keep exploring, keep learning,
and keep asking the big questions.
Because the future of AI is the future of humanity.
And it's up to all of us to shape it.