Welcome back everyone for another deep dive.
Always fun to dive back in.
You guys have been digging into AI.
Yeah.
Especially from some excerpts of an interview
with Ilya Sutskiver.
Right.
The co-founder of OpenAI.
And he's making some pretty bold predictions.
Yeah, he is.
About where AI is headed.
And we're here to kind of help make sense of all that.
Yeah, unpack it all.
Extract some of those interesting nuggets.
What I think is so interesting about what Sutskiver's saying
is that he's not just some tech pundit kind of throwing out
wild theories.
Right.
You know, he's at OpenAI.
He's building this future.
Exactly, yeah.
So I think his predictions are particularly thought provoking.
He gets right to the point.
He does.
He doesn't waste any time.
Nope.
Right out of the gate, he says, pre-training as we know it
will unquestionably end.
Wow.
And that's a pretty big statement.
Huge.
For anyone who's been following AI at all.
Yeah.
Because pre-training is really the bedrock
of so much of what we're seeing.
For sure.
Explain pre-training, though, for someone who maybe
is just kind of getting into this.
So think of pre-training as building a foundation.
OK.
You're feeding the AI massive amounts of data
so it can learn the basics of language and code almost
like a crash course in worldly knowledge.
OK.
But Sutskiver's argument is that we're
hitting a wall with this approach.
Makes sense.
There's only so much data out there.
Right.
So this method has an inherent limit.
Yeah.
If pre-training is on its way out, then what comes next?
Right.
What replaces it?
What replaces it, yeah.
Well, Sutskiver believes one answer
lies in the development of agentic AI.
Oh, that's fascinating to me.
It is, isn't it?
Agentic AI, yeah.
So right now, something like ChatGPT is impressive,
but it's still a tool.
You give it input, it gives you output.
Agentic AI is completely different.
OK.
Imagine an AI that sets its own goals.
Oh, wow.
Can reason about its environment and takes action
without needing constant human guidance.
So instead of me saying, OK, write me a poem,
I guess I manage this whole project.
Exactly.
Do the research, figure out the execution.
It's not just about asking and answering.
It's about collaboration and partnership.
Wow.
Almost like having a truly intelligent colleague.
Yeah, that's a totally different relationship.
For sure.
With AI.
Absolutely.
You know, earlier you were talking about data limitations.
Yeah.
Sutskiver also talks about synthetic data
as a potential solution.
He does.
Which has its own pros and cons, right?
Definitely.
Yeah, he sees it as a way to break free from relying solely
on existing data.
OK.
With synthetic data, we could create entirely new data
sets that mimic real world information.
Oh, interesting.
So allowing us to train AI on scenarios that are rare or even
impossible to capture in real life.
I see the benefit of that.
Yeah.
But could that create AI that's out of touch with reality?
That's the challenge, right?
Yeah.
Creating synthetic data that accurately reflects
the nuances of the real world is a huge undertaking.
If we get it wrong, we could end up
with AI that's brilliant in theory, but fails in practice.
You want AI that is creative and adaptable,
but also grounded in the real world.
He uses a really interesting analogy
to explain another challenge.
And that is the brain body size ratio in human evolution.
Yeah, the brain body size ratio.
It's a brilliant comparison.
It is.
In humans, our brain size increased at a rate far beyond.
Much faster.
What would be expected based on our body size.
Right.
He's suggesting we might need to find a similar leap for AI.
I see.
We can't just keep throwing more data and bigger
networks at the problem.
Right.
Just getting bigger.
We need to find new ways to scale intelligence itself.
To make it smarter, not just bigger.
Exactly.
And that leads us to one of the most mind blowing
aspects of his predictions.
OK.
This future of AI reasoning.
OK.
And the implications of that.
Yeah, what separates future AI from what we have now
is this ability to go beyond pattern matching.
OK.
To genuine reasoning.
Think about it.
If AI starts reasoning like we do,
it becomes inherently less predictable.
Oh, OK.
Because it's no longer just following a set of rules.
Right.
OK.
So we have AI that can think for itself.
Yeah.
Set its own goals, act independently.
Uh-huh.
This is where things start to feel a little sci-fi.
Right.
It does get a little.
What happens when AI starts to solve problems in ways
we didn't anticipate?
Right.
Or even understand?
It's a great question.
Yeah.
And one of the most fascinating and potentially challenging
aspects of what Sitzgever is describing.
Right.
He believes future AI will be able to reason through problems,
consider different options, and make decisions
based on an actual understanding of the situation.
So it's not just about giving it more information.
Right.
It's about giving it the ability to think critically
and creatively about that information.
Exactly.
How do we ensure that that reasoning
aligns with our own values and goals?
It's a key question.
Especially as it becomes more autonomous.
A big.
Yeah.
It's a balancing act, isn't it?
Huge.
We want AI that can think for itself
and help us solve complex problems.
Yeah.
But we also need to ensure that its actions
align with human values and goals.
Yeah.
We've got to be careful about what we ask it to do.
And this is just the tip of the iceberg
when it comes to the future of AI as Sitzgever sees it.
Oh, there's so much more to unpack.
So much more.
We've got to keep going.
Let's do it.
So much more.
Yeah.
And we haven't even touched on the hallucination problem,
which has been a major hurdle in AI development.
As impressive as current AI is.
Yeah.
It still has that tendency to just make stuff up.
Totally.
You know, generate incorrect or even nonsensical information.
Yeah.
And that's a big problem if we want to rely on AI
for things like scientific research.
Or medical diagnoses.
Exactly.
High stakes situations.
Exactly.
Sitzgever believes that as AI becomes more sophisticated
in its reasoning abilities, it will actually
be able to identify and correct these solutions on its own.
So almost like a built-in fact checker.
Yeah.
Like a self-correcting mechanism.
So AI that can not only generate information,
but also critically evaluate its own output
and make adjustments.
Yeah, make adjustments.
Yeah.
Based on reasoning and logic.
It ties back to his point about generalization.
OK.
He believes that AI will eventually
be able to solve problems that hasn't been specifically
trained on.
OK.
Much like humans can apply knowledge
from one domain to another.
I'm thinking like when we learn to drive,
we might practice in a limited area.
Right.
But then we can navigate new environments
in unexpected situations.
Exactly.
So he seems to think AI will achieve
a similar level of adaptability.
He does.
Although he acknowledges that it might not
be quite as seamless as human generalization.
Right.
But even approaching that level of adaptability
would have massive implications for AI's ability
to function in the real world.
Yeah.
It feels like we're talking about AI that's not just a tool,
but like a partner.
Yeah.
That can help us navigate complex and unpredictable
situations.
I like that a partner.
And all of these predictions.
Yeah.
Agentic AI, synthetic data, advanced reasoning,
generalization.
All pointing towards.
They all seem to point towards this idea
of superintelligence.
Yeah, ultimate goal.
Right.
Yeah.
And that's where things get really interesting.
Things get really interesting because superintelligence,
as he describes it, isn't just about being really smart.
It's about surpassing human intelligence
in virtually every aspect.
So not just AI that can beat us at chess.
Right.
But AI that can solve problems that we can't even comprehend.
Solve problems we don't even know exist.
It might have insights and perspectives
that are completely alien to us.
Yeah.
It really challenges our current understanding
of what intelligence means.
It's both exhilarating and a little daunting.
It is both of those things.
I think a lot of people hear superintelligence
and they immediately think of.
Hollywood as a country.
Yeah, the Terminator machines taking over the world.
Right.
But Sootskiver doesn't really seem to see it that way.
He doesn't.
He actually emphasizes the potential for collaboration
between humans and superintelligent AI.
OK.
He talks about AI helping us solve some of the world's most
pressing problems, augmenting our creativity,
and pushing the boundaries of human potential.
That sounds incredibly optimistic.
It does.
But it also raises the question of control.
Right.
How do we ensure that superintelligent AI with its
potentially vast capabilities remains
aligned with human values and goals?
That's the million dollar question.
And it's one that Sootskiver doesn't shy away from.
OK.
He acknowledges that we need to develop robust frameworks
and safeguards to guide the development and deployment
of superintelligent AI, ensuring that it remains
beneficial to humanity.
It's not just about building smarter AI.
Right.
It's about building AI that's aligned with our values
and goals.
Aligning it with our value.
It's about shaping a future where AI and humanity
can coexist and thrive together.
And that requires careful consideration
of the ethical implications.
Of such powerful technology.
Absolutely.
We need to start having those conversations now
before we reach a point where superintelligence becomes
a reality.
Can't just wait until it's too late.
No.
We need to think about the potential consequences,
the ethical dilemmas, the societal impacts
of such a profound technological advancement.
We need to make sure we're not just
building superintelligence.
Right.
We're building it responsibly.
Responsibly, yeah.
We need to ensure that the benefits of AI
are shared equitably.
Oh, sure.
That we don't create new forms of inequality or injustice
in the process.
It's a huge responsibility.
It is.
But it's one we can't afford to ignore.
It feels like a fundamental shift.
It is.
In our relationship with technology.
Absolutely.
Moving beyond simply using it to actively shaping
its evolution.
Yeah, we're not just passive users anymore.
Especially when it comes to something as potentially
transformative as superintelligence.
Yeah.
Yeah, it is a massive undertaking.
But it's also an incredible opportunity.
I agree.
I mean, Setscaver's vision of the future of AI.
Yeah.
Isn't just about technological advancement.
It's about reimagining what's possible for humanity.
It's exact.
Using this incredible tool to solve problems,
enhance creativity, and ultimately create a better future.
That's what I find so inspiring about his perspective.
He's not just predicting a future where AI is more powerful.
He's envisioning a future where AI helps
us unlock human potential in ways we can't even imagine yet.
But with all this talk of superintelligence and AI
that can reason, act independently,
and even solve its own errors.
There's a question that lingers in my mind.
OK.
What happens to humans in this future?
Do we become obsolete?
That's a valid concern.
And one that's been explored in science fiction for decades.
But I think Setscaver offers a more nuanced view.
He doesn't see superintelligence as replacing
human intelligence.
He sees it as complimenting it.
So instead of a scenario where AI takes over,
it's more about collaboration and partnership.
More like a partnership.
Humans and AI working together to achieve common goals.
Exactly.
Imagine a world where we have AI partners that
can help us tackle climate change,
develop new medical treatments, or even explore
the depths of space.
Wow.
AI that can augment our creativity, expand our knowledge,
and help us understand the universe in ways
we never could alone.
That's a powerful image.
But how do we ensure that this collaboration is
truly beneficial to all of humanity?
Yeah.
How do we prevent the concentration of power
and resources in the hands of those who control
these advanced AI systems?
That's where the ethical considerations we've
been discussing come into play.
OK.
We need to establish clear guidelines and frameworks
to ensure that the development and deployment of superintelligence
is guided by principles of fairness, equity,
and accessibility.
So it's not just about building advanced AI.
Right.
It's about building it responsibly.
Responsibly.
Ensuring that its benefits are shared widely.
Right.
And that it doesn't exacerbate existing inequality.
That's excellent.
Or create new ones.
We need to be very careful about that.
It seems like navigating this future
will require a deep understanding of not only
the technological aspects of AI, but also
the ethical, social, and economic implications.
All of it.
We'll need to rethink our education systems,
our labor markets, even our political institutions
to adapt to this new reality.
It's a huge shift.
It is.
The future of AI isn't just a technological challenge.
It's a societal challenge.
It will require collaboration across disciplines,
thoughtful dialogue, and a willingness
to adapt to a world where the boundaries between human
and artificial intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred.
Sutskiver paints a picture of a future
that is both exciting and daunting.
He does.
Full of potential, but also fraught with challenges.
So many challenges.
It's clear that the choices we make today
will have a profound impact on how this future unfolds.
Absolutely.
And that's what makes this conversation so crucial.
We're not just passive observers.
Right.
We're active participants in shaping the future of AI.
We have a voice.
We have a choice.
We do by engaging in informed discussions,
demanding ethical development, and embracing
the potential for collaboration.
We can help guide AI towards a future that
benefits all of humanity.
So as you continue your own exploration of AI,
remember that you're not just learning about a technology.
You're engaging with a force that has the potential
to reshape our world.
A very powerful force.
What excites you most about this potential?
It's a big question.
What concerns you and what role do you
want to play in shaping this future?
Those are questions worth pondering.
As we stand at the cusp of this new era of intelligence.
It's a new era.
It is the future of AI is not predetermined.
Right.
It's being written right now.
And we all have a part to play in shaping its direction.
Well, that's about all the time we have for today's deep dive.
Time flies.
It's been an incredible journey into the world of AI.
It has.
And the mind-blowing possibilities that lie ahead.
We hope this conversation has sparked your curiosity.
Yes.
And inspired you to think deeply about the future
we're creating together.
It's up to us.
Until next time, keep exploring.
Keep questioning.
Keep learning.
And keep imagining the incredible potential of AI
to shape a better future for all.
A better future for all.
Thanks for joining us on this deep dive.
It's been a pleasure.
We'll see you next time.