All right, so today we're going deep on AI,
but not just any AI.
We're talking about the next three years.
You shared some seriously intriguing predictions
from AI expert Julia McCoy.
And let me tell you, even I was surprised
by some of this stuff.
Apparently we're 40 to 50 years ahead of schedule.
Even AI experts are blown away
by how fast things are developing.
It's true, the rate of advancement
is unlike anything we've seen before.
So get ready to explore what this accelerated timeline
means for you.
And this isn't just hype.
There's a real scientific basis for these predictions.
One key factor is something called scaling laws.
It's a bit technical, but basically,
researchers have discovered that there
are predictable relationships between the amount
of computing power data and the capabilities of AI models.
Think of it like a recipe.
The more ingredients you add, the bigger the cake.
And in this case, the cake is AI intelligence.
So instead of just throwing more computing power
at the problem, we're getting smarter about how we use it.
Exactly.
We're starting to understand the underlying mechanics
of AI development, which allows us to forecast its progress
with a lot more accuracy.
It's no longer just guesswork.
We're getting a clearer picture of where AI is heading
and how quickly it's getting there.
OK, so we're getting better at predicting AI's trajectory.
But what about the AI itself?
How is it becoming more capable?
Well, aside from scaling laws, there
are a couple of other fascinating developments.
One is something called inference time compute scaling.
Think of it this way.
When you're faced with a tough problem,
sometimes you need to step back and just think about it
for a while.
It's the same with AI.
By allowing AI models more thinking time.
Technically, it's called inference time.
They can actually understand and process information much
more deeply.
Interesting.
It's not just about speed.
It's about giving AI the time to really mull things over.
So it's like giving AI the equivalent of a good night's
sleep to process all that data.
Yeah, something like that.
It's interesting.
What's the other development you mentioned?
It's something called distillation.
Imagine a brilliant scientist teaching everything
they know to a student.
But the student ends up becoming even more brilliant
than their teacher.
Wow.
That's essentially what's happening with AI distillation.
We can have one AI model transfer its knowledge
to a new generation of AI.
And in the process, the student AI
becomes exponentially smarter than the teacher AI.
It's like evolution on fast forward.
Wow.
So it's not just humans innovating.
Exactly.
The AI is innovating on itself.
Yeah.
That brings us to McCoy's predictions.
Right.
And she doesn't waste any time getting to the big stuff.
She says 2025 is the year of the automation cliff.
Oh, OK.
What exactly did she mean by that?
Picture this.
You're going about your work as usual.
And then seemingly overnight, AI agents
are doing significant portions of your job.
Really?
That's the automation cliff.
So?
A sudden shift where AI takes over tasks previously
done by humans.
Wow.
And McCoy believes it's going to hit us hard in 2025.
OK, so we're not just talking about replacing factory workers
with robots.
No.
This is about white collar jobs, too, right?
Absolutely.
OK.
McCoy predicts that administrative and office work
will be particularly impacted.
Think about all those tasks that involve data entry scheduling
generating reports.
Yeah.
Those are all prime targets for automation.
So it's not just about AI replacing humans entirely.
Right.
But rather humans learning to work alongside AI
in a more integrated way.
Precisely.
OK.
And this is where the concept of autonomous AI agents comes in.
Hold on.
Are these like super powered chatbots?
Not exactly.
OK.
Chatbots are primarily designed for conversations,
whereas AI agents are all about action.
OK.
Think of them as digital workers with specific skills
and responsibilities.
They can make decisions, execute tasks,
and even collaborate with each other.
Wow.
All with varying levels of human oversight.
McCoy talks about using agent swarms in her workflow.
Right.
Can you unpack that a bit?
Absolutely.
How does this actually work in practice?
Imagine you need to write an article on a complex topic.
OK.
Instead of doing all the research writing and editing
yourself, you could have an AI agent swarm
handle different aspects of the task.
Wow.
One agent could gather information.
OK.
Another could synthesize it into a draft.
Another could fact check and edit.
Right.
While yet another agent could even search for and add
relevant images or videos, it's a truly collaborative process
with each agent playing a specific role.
So it's like having a whole team of AI specialists working
under your direction.
Exactly.
Except they never complain about deadlines or need
coffee breaks.
Right.
But what about the human side of this equation?
If AI agents are taking over tasks, where does that leave us?
Humans.
That's the million dollar question, isn't it?
Yeah.
How do we adapt and thrive in a world where AI is increasingly
capable?
Well, let's dive into that.
OK.
What are McCoy's thoughts on how this all
plays out in the workplace?
McCoy believes that by the end of 2025,
we'll see a significant shift towards what she calls
hybrid workforces.
OK.
Picture Fortune 500 companies with teams
composed of both humans and AI agents,
all working together under the guidance of human managers.
So it's not necessarily about mass unemployment,
but rather a reimagining of how work gets done.
Right.
Humans and AI working side by side,
each bringing their own strengths to the table.
Exactly.
OK.
The key will be understanding and managing
the different autonomy levels of AI agents.
Think of it like self-driving cars.
OK.
Some can handle basic tasks like staying in their lane,
while others can navigate complex city streets.
Not sure.
Similarly, some AI agents might require
constant human supervision, while others could operate
with a high degree of independence.
OK.
I think I'm starting to get a sense of what
this automation cliff might look like.
Yeah.
But McCoy doesn't stop there, does she?
Nope.
2026 is when things get even more interesting.
Right.
Or perhaps a little unsettling, depending on your perspective.
Yeah.
She calls it the year of the robot.
OK.
And while we might not be seeing robots taking over
our offices just yet, McCoy predicts that 2026 will
mark the emergence of first-generation humanoid
robots becoming commercially available.
Wow.
Think of it as digital intelligence entering
the physical world.
Humanoid robots.
Yeah.
I'm picturing something out of a sci-fi movie.
I know.
How realistic is this prediction?
And what will these robots actually be able to do?
It's more realistic than you might think.
OK.
NVIDIA, a leading technology company,
predicts they'll have cracked a major challenge called
the Robot World Model by mid-2026.
Robot World Model?
I have to admit that sounds pretty intimidating.
I know, right?
Can you break that down for me?
Imagine giving robots the ability to understand and interact
with the physical world in a way that's similar to humans.
OK.
They'll be able to perceive their surroundings,
navigate obstacles, and even manipulate objects
with a level of dexterity we haven't seen before.
So instead of just following pre-programmed instructions,
these robots will actually be able to understand their
environment and respond to it in real time.
That's the idea.
Wow.
And McCoy believes that this breakthrough,
combined with the rapid advancements in AI
we've been discussing, will lead to a new era of robotics,
one where robots can work alongside humans
in a much more sophisticated way.
This is where it gets really interesting.
Yeah.
Perhaps a little scary, too.
Are we talking about robots taking over physical jobs now,
too?
It's certainly a possibility.
But remember, these first-generation humanoid robots
are going to be expensive, especially
the most advanced models.
We're talking price tags upwards of $80,000.
Even more basic utility robots might cost anywhere
from $2,000 to $110,000.
Jeez.
It's a significant investment, to say the least.
So it sounds like these early humanoid robots
will be more like specialized tools,
kind of like the first iPhone.
Expensive or revolutionary.
Exactly.
It might not be for everyone.
But they'll signal a major shift in what's possible.
And just like the iPhone ushered in a new era
of mobile technology, these robots
could pave the way for a future where
robots are integrated into our lives in ways
we haven't even imagined yet.
OK, I'm already feeling a little overwhelmed.
And we've only made it to 2026.
Oh, yeah.
Macquarie's prediction for 2027 is even more mind-boggling.
The achievement of artificial superintelligence, or ASI.
That's right.
And what's remarkable is that she's not alone in this.
Yeah.
Prediction.
Elon Musk, the Google AI lead, and even Sam Altman,
who's known for being pretty level-headed,
all seem to agree that superintelligence is
right around the corner.
It seems so.
But before we dive into that, let's take a step back
for a second.
OK.
When we talk about ASI, what are we actually talking about?
What does it mean for an AI to be superintelligent?
Essentially, it means that AI surpasses human intelligence
in every aspect.
OK.
Problem-solving creativity, even emotional intelligence.
Wow.
It's an AI that can think faster, learn more efficiently,
and come up with solutions that are
beyond human comprehension.
That's a pretty big concept to wrap my head around.
But Macquarie seems to be suggesting
that this isn't some far-off sci-fi scenario.
Right.
She's saying it could happen as soon as 2027.
How is that even possible?
Well, remember those three patterns of AI development
we talked about earlier?
Scaling laws.
Inference time, compute scaling, and distillation.
They all contribute to a kind of feedback loop
that could lead to AI surpassing human intelligence
in a relatively short amount of time.
So it's like AI is accelerating its own development
building on its own breakthroughs.
And that's what makes this so fascinating and potentially
concerning.
We're talking about an intelligence that
could potentially evolve beyond our control.
OK, now I'm really starting to feel like we're stepping
into uncharted territory.
An AI that's smarter than us.
What does that even mean for humanity?
That's the big question, isn't it?
And it's one that we need to be asking ourselves now
while we still have time to shape the future of AI.
And that's where we'll pick things up in part two
of our deep dive.
Sounds good.
Welcome back.
Right before we left off, we were
wading into some pretty deep waters.
An AI that's smarter than us.
It's both exhilarating and a little terrifying, wouldn't you
say?
It's certainly a concept that challenges
our understanding of what it means to be human.
I think it's natural to have mixed feelings about it.
McCoy seems to be cautiously optimistic.
She emphasizes the potential benefits
comparing AI to a powerful new energy source, one that
could solve some of the world's biggest problems,
like climate change or finding cures for diseases.
That's an interesting analogy.
Think about it throughout history.
New forms of energy have driven progress.
From fire to electricity to nuclear power,
each one has unlocked possibilities
we couldn't have imagined before.
And AI, in a sense, is a new kind of energy,
one that fuels innovation and creativity.
But just like those other forms of energy,
it all comes down to how we use it.
So it's not inherently good or bad.
It's a tool.
And it's up to us to decide how to wield it.
Exactly.
McCoy makes a good point that we
need to move beyond those simplistic narratives of AI
as either a savior or a destroyer.
The reality is likely to be much more complex.
Exactly.
We need to look beyond the hype and the fear-mongering
and really engage with the nuances of what AI can do
and how it might impact our world.
OK, so let's say we want to harness AI for good.
How do we ensure it's developed ethically and responsibly?
What are the safeguards we need to put in place?
Well, McCoy talks about the need for collaboration,
transparency, and open dialogue.
OK.
She argues that the future of AI shouldn't
be dictated by just a handful of tech giants or governments.
Right.
It needs to be a collective effort involving
diverse voices and perspectives from all sectors of society.
So we need to bring everyone to the table.
Yeah.
Researchers, policymakers, ethicists, even everyday citizens.
Exactly.
To discuss the implications of AI and ensure
it aligns with our values as a society.
We need to break down those silos
and create a more open and inclusive ecosystem
for AI development.
It's about fostering a culture of responsibility.
Yeah.
But we're constantly asking ourselves tough questions
about the potential impact of AI and how we can mitigate risks.
That makes sense.
But it's not just about regulating the big tech companies,
right?
No, it's also about empowering individuals.
OK.
Giving them the knowledge and tools
they need to navigate this rapidly changing world.
So we can't just sit back and passively observe
as AI transforms our society.
Right.
We need to be active participants in shaping its development
and ensuring it benefits everyone, not just a select few.
Absolutely.
OK.
So let's get practical here.
OK.
What steps can our listeners take to stay ahead of the curve
and harness the potential of AI?
That's a great question.
Yeah.
And there are a few things that come to mind.
OK.
First, stay informed.
Right.
This field is evolving so rapidly
that it's essential to keep up with the latest developments.
Read articles, listen to podcasts like this one,
of course.
Of course.
And engage in conversations about AI.
The more you understand about this technology,
the better equipped you'll be to navigate its impact
on your life and career.
So it's all about continuous learning and being curious,
even if you're not a tech expert.
Exactly.
Second, don't be afraid to experiment.
OK.
There are so many incredible AI tools available online,
many of them free or low cost.
Right.
Play around with them, see what they can do,
and think about how you might be able to incorporate them
into your work or personal life.
It's like taking AI for a test drive,
seeing how it fits into your world.
Exactly.
And finally, don't underestimate the importance
of your human skills.
OK.
Yes, AI is transforming the job market.
Right.
But there will always be a need for creativity,
critical thinking, empathy, and emotional intelligence.
These are the qualities that make us uniquely human.
Yeah.
And they'll become even more valuable in an AI-powered world.
So it's not just about learning to code
or becoming a data scientist.
Right.
It's about honing those uniquely human skills
that AI can't replicate.
Precisely.
The future belongs to those who can adapt, learn,
and collaborate, both with each other and with AI.
It's about finding that balance between human ingenuity
and AI's incredible capabilities.
Uh-huh.
And that brings us to part three of our deep dive.
So we've been talking a lot about individual adaptation.
Yeah.
About how to stay ahead of the curve in this rapidly evolving
world of AI.
But it's not just about personal upskilling, is it?
No, it's not.
There's a bigger picture here.
Uh-huh.
The societal implications of AI.
You're absolutely right.
As AI becomes more integrated into our lives,
it's going to raise a whole host of ethical and societal
questions.
Right.
We need to be thinking about things like algorithmic bias,
the potential for job displacement in certain sectors,
the impact on privacy and security,
and even more fundamentally, what
does it mean to be human in a world where
machines are becoming increasingly intelligent?
It's like we're writing a new chapter
in the story of humanity.
Yeah, it is.
We need to make sure it's a chapter we're proud of.
McCoy talks about the need for a new social contract,
one that takes into account the unique challenges
and opportunities presented by AI.
What do you think she means by that?
I think she's pointing to the need for a fundamental shift
in how we think about our relationship with technology.
This isn't just another technological advancement.
This is something that has the potential
to reshape our societies, our economies,
even our very sense of self.
Wow.
We need to have a serious conversation
about what kind of future we want to create with AI.
Yeah.
And that conversation needs to involve everyone.
So it's not just about mitigating the risks.
Yeah.
It's about actively shaping the future we want to see.
Exactly.
We need to move beyond this reactive mindset
and start thinking proactively about how we can use AI
to create a more just equitable and sustainable world.
And that's going to require a new set of rules,
a new way of thinking about our responsibilities
to each other and to the planet.
McCoy encourages us to view AI not as a threat,
but as a catalyst for positive change.
I agree.
What are some concrete examples of how AI
could be used to address some of the pressing challenges
we face today?
Well, let's take climate change, for example.
OK.
AI can be used to develop more efficient renewable energy
systems, optimize transportation networks
to reduce emissions, even model and predict
the effects of climate change to help us adapt.
Wow.
In health care, AI can be used to personalize treatments,
develop new drugs, and even assist with surgery.
And in education, AI can personalize learning,
provide real time feedback, and make quality education
more accessible to everyone.
So AI has the potential to solve some of humanity's
biggest problems.
It does.
But only if we use it wisely and intentionally.
Yeah.
It's a powerful tool.
And like any tool, it can be used for good or for ill.
Precisely.
It all comes back to human agency.
We're not passive bystanders in this technological revolution.
We have the power to shape the future of AI
and ensure it aligns with our values and aspirations.
What would you say to our listeners, those
who might be feeling a little overwhelmed by all of this?
Hmm.
That's a good question.
What's the one key takeaway you want them to leave with?
I would say the future is not predetermined.
It's something we create together through the choices
we make and the actions we take.
Stay curious, stay engaged, and don't
be afraid to ask tough questions.
Yeah.
The future of AI is in our hands.
That's a powerful message to end on.
Thank you.
We've covered a lot of ground in this deep dive.
Yeah, we have.
From the technical breakthroughs driving
AI's rapid evolution to the potential impact on our jobs,
our societies, and even our very understanding of what
it means to be human, we've explored
both the promises and the perils of this transformative
technology.
We have.
As Julia McCoy reminds us, this is just the beginning.
It is.
The AI we use today is the worst it will ever be.
It really is.
So buckle up, stay curious, and embrace the future,
because it's going to be an incredible ride.
I agree.
Thanks for joining us on this deep dive into the world of AI.
Until next time, keep exploring, keep learning,
and keep questioning the future is waiting to be written.