1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,280 All right, welcome to another deep dive. 2 00:00:02,280 --> 00:00:05,040 And today we're diving deep into the world 3 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,720 of US-China trade relations. 4 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,200 Now I know, I know what you're thinking, trade relations, 5 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:11,960 sounds a little dry, right? 6 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:14,640 But stick with us, this is a story. 7 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,560 It's got some crazy twists, unexpected turns. 8 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,960 I mean, imagine, imagine one of your biggest customers, 9 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,280 like your biggest customer suddenly just stops ordering 10 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:24,840 from you, just walks out. 11 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,000 That's kind of what's happening right now 12 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:27,000 between the US and China. 13 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:28,560 Yeah, the sheer scale of the shift 14 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,080 is really quite remarkable. 15 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,720 For decades, the US had this pretty significant trade 16 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:34,960 surplus with China. 17 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:36,520 They were buying up everything, you name it, 18 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,720 agricultural products, high-tech equipment, everything. 19 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,840 But now, well, the situation's flipped. 20 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,640 Yeah, it's like going to your favorite restaurant 21 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,520 and finding they've completely redone the menu. 22 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,240 And not just a few new items, like the whole thing's different. 23 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,320 And this isn't some random change. 24 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,840 China's very deliberately pursuing this path 25 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,360 towards what they call greater economic independence. 26 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,800 And they've got strategic reasons for doing this. 27 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,320 This is a long-term shift. 28 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,880 This is not just some temporary thing. 29 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,520 OK, so what does that actually mean for, well, for everyone? 30 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,080 What happened? 31 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,880 What does economic independence even look like for China? 32 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,560 Well, one of the big catalysts for all this 33 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,920 was that trade war that flared up a few years back. 34 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,800 The US, they slapped tariffs on a bunch of Chinese goods. 35 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,000 And the thinking was, this would force China 36 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,360 to buy more American products. 37 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,520 But, wow, it didn't really work out that way. 38 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,280 Yeah, kind of like trying to make someone eat more broccoli 39 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,480 by making all the other veggies more expensive. 40 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,320 They'll probably just find something else to eat entirely. 41 00:01:37,320 --> 00:01:38,280 Exactly. 42 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,080 And that's precisely what happened. 43 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:43,800 Those terrorists, well, they made American goods more expensive, 44 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,920 less competitive over the Chinese market. 45 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,920 So instead of buying more from the US, 46 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,200 China started, well, shopping around. 47 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,800 And this is where the soybean story comes in, right? 48 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,520 Because I know American soybean farmers, 49 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:56,680 they got hit pretty hard. 50 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,440 Soybeans are a perfect example, really. 51 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,560 Before that trade war, China was buying, 52 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:05,160 get this, almost 60% of all the soybeans the US was exporting. 53 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,960 But once those terrorists hit, American soybeans, 54 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:09,800 well, they got pricier. 55 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,080 So China just switched to Brazil. 56 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:13,840 It's like going to the grocery store, 57 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,560 seeing your favorite cereals, suddenly way overpriced, 58 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,680 and you just grab a different box. 59 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,680 Except in this case, we're talking about billions 60 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:21,920 of dollars worth of soybeans. 61 00:02:21,920 --> 00:02:23,840 Oh, yeah, the impact on American soybean farmers 62 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,800 was huge, soybean prices just hanged. 63 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,600 And they lost an estimated, get this, $4 billion in revenue. 64 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,040 Wow, $4 billion, that's a lot of money. 65 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,080 And I imagine it wasn't just a financial hit, right? 66 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,720 What happened to those farms, to the communities 67 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:39,960 that rely on them? 68 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:41,520 Oh, absolutely. 69 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,600 This is about real people, real livelihoods, 70 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,240 not just numbers on a spreadsheet. 71 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:46,840 You had family farms really struggling 72 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:48,760 to keep going, rural communities, 73 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,600 whole communities that depended on the soybean industry. 74 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,160 And they were all facing real economic hardship. 75 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,280 So China shifted away from American goods, 76 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,520 but it sounds like they didn't stop there, right? 77 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,760 They didn't just sit back and wait. 78 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:01,960 No, no, not at all. 79 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,720 They didn't just react to the tariffs. 80 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,280 They used this as a chance to push their own agenda, 81 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:08,520 their own goals. 82 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:12,400 And a core part of that was diversification. 83 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,800 They didn't want to be reliant on one country anymore, 84 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,440 especially one that was, well, 85 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,360 increasingly becoming an adversary. 86 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,560 Okay, so they branched out, found new suppliers, 87 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:21,720 different products. 88 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,720 Exactly, we talked about Brazil for soybeans, right? 89 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,920 But they also got closer with Europe 90 00:03:26,920 --> 00:03:29,160 for technology partnerships, 91 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,720 and started making energy deals with Russia, 92 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,160 spreading the risk, making sure they had options. 93 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,040 Makes sense, don't put all your eggs in one basket. 94 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:37,400 So what else were they doing? 95 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,920 Another big focus was domestic production. 96 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,200 China realized, if you want real economic independence, 97 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:44,680 you gotta be able to make essential stuff yourself. 98 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,640 So they poured money into their own manufacturing, 99 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,040 especially in sectors where they've been relying on the US. 100 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,640 Okay, so diversifying suppliers, 101 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,000 boosting their own production, what else? 102 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,480 Well, this is where things get interesting. 103 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,680 They also made some big moves on food security. 104 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,360 They realized relying so heavily on imports, 105 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,800 especially for food, is a big risk. 106 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:06,000 Yeah, you can't be independent 107 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,600 if you can't feed your own people. 108 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,280 So how did they tackle that? 109 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:10,520 Well, they took several steps. 110 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,040 First, they just stopped buying 111 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,480 American agricultural products, completely. 112 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,160 Whoa, that's a pretty big statement. 113 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,160 What kind of impact did that have on the US? 114 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,680 It was a huge blow to American farmers, 115 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:23,520 especially those who were really counting 116 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,200 on that Chinese market. 117 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,720 But from China's side, it was a calculated move. 118 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,520 So they were willing to take that hit short-term 119 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:31,960 to reach their long-term goal. 120 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,240 Exactly, it was a message loud and clear 121 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,320 they weren't gonna be dependent on the US for food anymore. 122 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,440 But stopping imports, that was just the start. 123 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,800 They also pumped money into their own agriculture. 124 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:44,680 So they weren't just closing the door on imports, 125 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,760 they were opening a window to self-sufficiency. 126 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:52,440 Precisely, and one way they did this was embracing GMOs, 127 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,160 genetically modified crops. 128 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,440 They saw the potential there to increase yields, 129 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,040 make their agriculture more resilient. 130 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,640 GMOs, they're still like a bit of a hot topic, aren't they? 131 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,920 What's the general consensus on that? 132 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,800 The GMO debate, it's complicated, it gets pretty heated. 133 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,640 People who are for it, they say it's got all these benefits. 134 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,720 Higher yields, less pesticide use, 135 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,520 even more nutritious food. 136 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,160 But people against it, they worry about the environment, 137 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,600 about big corporations controlling food. 138 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,680 It's a complex issue, but China, 139 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:23,160 well, they decided to go for it. 140 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,920 A pragmatic way to address their food needs. 141 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,800 It sounds like they're doing what they think is best for them, 142 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:30,880 regardless of what anyone else thinks. 143 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,240 Yeah, I think that's fair to say. 144 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,000 And they didn't stop there. 145 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,840 In 2022, they implemented this food security law, a big one, 146 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:39,480 aimed at being totally self-sufficient 147 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:40,680 in their staple grains. 148 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,640 It covers everything, land use, water, seeds, technology. 149 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,000 Wow, so while American farmers are struggling 150 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,560 because of that lost market, China's building up this fortress 151 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:50,960 around their own food supply. 152 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:52,240 It really seems like they had a plan. 153 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:53,960 Oh, they definitely had a plan. 154 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,560 And they've been putting it into action. 155 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,800 It's fascinating to see, really, 156 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,400 how a country can use economic policy 157 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,120 to achieve these bigger goals. 158 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,200 All right, so China's diversifying suppliers, 159 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,560 boosting domestic production, securing their food. 160 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,280 What's all that mean for the US? 161 00:06:10,280 --> 00:06:12,480 What happened on this side of the Pacific? 162 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:17,200 Well, the impact on the US has been, well, multifaceted, 163 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,880 say the least, and pretty significant. 164 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,160 We talked about agriculture, 165 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,360 but the effects go way beyond soybean farms. 166 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,560 So let's talk about those ripple effects. 167 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,040 What were some of the key areas 168 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,640 where the US really felt this trade war 169 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,040 and this strategic shift? 170 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,080 One of the biggest casualties was the American tech sector. 171 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,120 Companies like Qualcomm, they were really dependent 172 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,840 on the Chinese market for their semiconductor chips. 173 00:06:39,840 --> 00:06:42,880 Their revenue just plunged when China started developing 174 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:44,040 their own chip industry. 175 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,280 Semiconductors, those tiny little chips 176 00:06:46,280 --> 00:06:48,760 that power everything, our phones, our cars, 177 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:50,200 why are they such a big deal? 178 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:51,960 Well, they're often called the new oil 179 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,840 because they're so essential to all this modern technology. 180 00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:56,600 Whoever controls semiconductor production, 181 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:57,920 they've got a lot of power, 182 00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,600 economic and strategic power. 183 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,600 So China realizing that and investing in their own chips, 184 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:03,840 that's huge. 185 00:07:03,840 --> 00:07:06,120 And American tech companies feeling the pain from that, 186 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,480 it shows this isn't just about soybeans anymore, 187 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,040 this is about something much bigger, real power shift. 188 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:12,000 Absolutely. 189 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,680 And it's not just tech and agriculture 190 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:14,960 that are feeling the heat. 191 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,080 The US energy sector has been hit hard too. 192 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,320 Remember those liquefied natural gas exports we talked about? 193 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,200 Well, those are plummeted. 194 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,360 China's turned to countries like Qatar and Russia 195 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:25,400 for their energy needs. 196 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,320 Okay, so we're seeing a pattern here. 197 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,400 Agriculture, technology, energy, 198 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,680 they're all feeling the effects of China's shift. 199 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,600 What could this mean for the US economy in the long run? 200 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:37,440 Well, in the short term, 201 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,200 we're already seeing some consequences. 202 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,080 More farm bankruptcies, 203 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,200 less land being used for certain crops, 204 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:45,600 those economic struggles in rural communities, 205 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:46,720 they haven't gone away. 206 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,320 It's tough to think about the impact on all those families, 207 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,520 those communities who've relied on these industries 208 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,240 for generation. 209 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:54,080 It is, it is. 210 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,920 And beyond the immediate economic hit, 211 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,560 there are bigger longer term worries. 212 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,480 Losing market share in China, 213 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,280 with China going all in on becoming a tech leader, 214 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,200 that could mean slower economic growth for the US, 215 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,800 maybe even a decline in US influence globally. 216 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:11,760 Okay, so we've seen how this trade war 217 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,560 and China's moves have played out so far, 218 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,360 but this is the deep dive, right? 219 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,240 So let's go even deeper. 220 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,240 What does all this mean for the future? 221 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:22,600 Is this just a trade spat, 222 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:24,080 or is this something much bigger, 223 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,000 like a whole reshaping of how the global economy works? 224 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:28,440 Well, that's a question we'll explore further, 225 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,320 but one thing's for sure, 226 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:31,760 China's not just playing defense here, 227 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,040 they're actively building this new global trade network 228 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:36,560 with themselves right at the center. 229 00:08:36,560 --> 00:08:37,480 Hold on tight everyone, 230 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,600 because it looks like we're in for a wild ride. 231 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,680 We'll be back soon to break all of this down 232 00:08:41,680 --> 00:08:43,440 in part two of the deep dive. 233 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,200 What's really striking to me is how China 234 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,120 used this trade war, you know, to their advantage. 235 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,600 It's almost like they saw this coming 236 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:51,120 and were ready to pounce. 237 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:52,680 That's a really interesting point, 238 00:08:52,680 --> 00:08:56,000 makes you think they were like way ahead of the game. 239 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,040 And speaking of strategic moves, 240 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,520 we gotta talk more about this whole food security thing, 241 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,000 feeding the world's largest population. 242 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,960 That's a massive undertaking. 243 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,640 It's a Herculean task to say the least. 244 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,800 For China, having a reliable food supply, 245 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,080 it's essential, not just economically, 246 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,240 but for their national security too. 247 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,760 Depending on imports for something that crucial, 248 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,600 that's a big vulnerability. 249 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:19,960 Yeah, can't really be independent 250 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:21,840 if you can't feed your own people, right? 251 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,240 So how'd they address that? 252 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:24,960 They took a multi-pronged approach, 253 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,320 starting with a pretty bold move in August 2019. 254 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,320 They completely stopped buying American agricultural products. 255 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,360 Whoa, just like that. 256 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,400 That's a serious move. 257 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:35,640 What did that do to the US? 258 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:36,960 Oh, it was a major hit, 259 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,880 especially for American farmers who were exporting to China. 260 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,320 But for China, it was a calculated risk. 261 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,600 So willing to take a short-term loss 262 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,120 for those long-term goals? 263 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,240 Exactly, it was a message, no mistaking it. 264 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:51,840 China wasn't gonna be dependent on the US for food anymore. 265 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:53,560 But that was just the first step. 266 00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:54,400 They also ramped up 267 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,640 their own agricultural production at home. 268 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,120 So not just shutting out imports, 269 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,520 but boosting their own self-sufficiency? 270 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:01,360 Exactly. 271 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,000 And part of that was, well, they went all in on GMOs, 272 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:06,360 genetically modified crops. 273 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:07,920 They saw the potential there, 274 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,960 higher yields, more resilience in their agriculture. 275 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,240 GMOs, that's still pretty controversial, isn't it? 276 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,200 What's the general feeling about them these days? 277 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,280 It's a complicated issue, lots of debate. 278 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,160 People who support GMOs, they point to the benefits. 279 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,280 More food, fewer pesticides, 280 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,640 potentially even more nutritious food. 281 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,080 But the people against it, 282 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,200 they worry about the environmental impact 283 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,680 about big corporations controlling our food. 284 00:10:33,680 --> 00:10:34,640 That's a tough one. 285 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,520 China, though, they decided it was the way to go, 286 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,440 a practical solution to their food security needs. 287 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,600 So they're making their own choices 288 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,160 based on what they think is best? 289 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,480 Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it. 290 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:45,960 And they didn't stop there. 291 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,680 In 2022, they introduced this food security law, 292 00:10:49,680 --> 00:10:53,120 really ambitious, aimed at being completely self-sufficient 293 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,520 in their staple grains. 294 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,680 It covers everything, how they use land, water management, 295 00:10:57,680 --> 00:11:00,520 seed development, technology, the whole works. 296 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,040 So it's like, while the US is dealing with a fallout 297 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,160 from this trade war, China's busy 298 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,200 building up this secure food system. 299 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:09,800 They've been very strategic, 300 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,960 very methodical in their approach. 301 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,880 We've talked about the negative impact on the US, 302 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,640 but is there anything America can learn from all this? 303 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,560 I think there are definitely some lessons to be learned. 304 00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:22,440 This whole situation has exposed some vulnerabilities 305 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,680 in the US economy and how it approaches global trade. 306 00:11:25,680 --> 00:11:27,000 What kind of vulnerabilities? 307 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,200 Well, one of the biggest is being too reliant 308 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,280 on one country for trade, 309 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,240 especially a country with very different 310 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,280 political and economic systems. 311 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,480 The US had become too dependent on China, 312 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,400 both for selling its products and for buying things. 313 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,120 So the classic, putting all your eggs in one basket, 314 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,160 especially when that basket's held by a, 315 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:46,640 well, a potential rival. 316 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:47,480 Exactly. 317 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:48,320 Yeah. 318 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:50,640 The US needs to diversify, find more trading partners, 319 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:52,200 build up its own industries at home. 320 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,160 And what about this idea of playing the long game? 321 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,400 China seems to be thinking decades ahead 322 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,720 while the US gets caught up in short-term political stuff. 323 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:03,320 That's a key difference. 324 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,440 China's economic policy is tied 325 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,040 to their long-term strategic goals. 326 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,120 They're willing to accept short-term paint 327 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,160 to achieve those bigger objectives. 328 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:13,720 The US, on the other hand, 329 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,160 often struggles to stick to long-term plans, 330 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,240 partly because of the way its political system works. 331 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,280 So is it like a built-in problem for the US, 332 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,400 this difficulty with long-term thinking? 333 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,560 There's definitely a structural element to it, 334 00:12:25,560 --> 00:12:27,160 but there's also a cultural element. 335 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,840 China has this long history of critigic thinking. 336 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,320 They understand how economic power translates 337 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:33,920 to influence on the world stage. 338 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:35,960 So it's a mix of how their system works 339 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:37,600 and how they think about strategy 340 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:38,920 that gives them an advantage. 341 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:39,920 I'd say so, yes. 342 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,840 Okay, this is all pretty thought-provoking. 343 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,520 But I gotta ask, are there any potential downsides 344 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:45,760 to China's strategy? 345 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,960 It seems like they've been doing pretty well so far. 346 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:49,960 While they've been very successful, 347 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,440 there are risks, potential problems, with their approach. 348 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,640 One is their reliance on, well, on authoritarianism. 349 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,640 That top-down control has helped them 350 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:01,520 grow their economy quickly. 351 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,480 But it can also stifle innovation, 352 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,040 people taking initiative. 353 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:06,960 So good at following a plan, 354 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,360 but maybe not so good at coming up with new ideas 355 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:10,600 when things change. 356 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,200 That's a risk, definitely. 357 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,240 Another potential issue is that they're operating 358 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,560 within a global system they didn't create, 359 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:17,920 but now they're trying to change it. 360 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,520 So they're playing a game where they didn't make the rules 361 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:21,840 and that could backfire. 362 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:22,680 It's possible. 363 00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:24,920 There's a lot of uncertainty about how the global order 364 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,800 will evolve and whether China can manage that 365 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,320 while still getting what it wants. 366 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:32,040 Okay, so we've got the US potentially losing its top spot, 367 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,000 the US adapting, and China facing its own challenges. 368 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,520 Sounds like the future is pretty unpredictable. 369 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:38,880 I think that's a fair assessment. 370 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:40,440 There's so many factors involved, 371 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,760 economic trends, technology, politics. 372 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,000 It's impossible to say for sure what will happen. 373 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,200 But that's what makes it so interesting, isn't it? 374 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,560 We're living through a major turning point in history 375 00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:51,800 and we don't know how it'll end. 376 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:52,640 Exactly. 377 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,760 It reminds us that history isn't set in stone. 378 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:57,840 It's shaped by the decisions we make, 379 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,600 the actions we take, the ideas we believe in. 380 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,760 So as we wrap up this part of the deep dive, 381 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,840 I wanna bring it back to our listeners. 382 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:06,400 What does all this mean for you? 383 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,600 How can you make sense of this complex, 384 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,640 constantly changing world? 385 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,440 It's essential to stay informed, 386 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,240 to hear different perspectives, 387 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,040 to think critically about what you see and hear. 388 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,320 Don't just take things at face value, 389 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:20,480 question everything, 390 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,280 look for different viewpoints and form your own opinions. 391 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,000 And remember, the future isn't something 392 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:26,640 that just happens to us. 393 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,240 We create it through our choices and actions. 394 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,800 So as you go about your day, as you make decisions, 395 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,800 think about how those decisions might be connected 396 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,280 to these global forces we've been talking about. 397 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,640 The world is changing and it's up to each of us 398 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:43,360 to navigate those changes wisely, with curiosity, 399 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,480 and with a commitment to building a better future 400 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,440 for everyone. 401 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:47,720 That's a great point to end on. 402 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,440 Thanks for joining us for this deep dive. 403 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:52,320 All right, welcome back to the deep dive. 404 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,840 We've been digging into this, 405 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:56,600 this whole US-China relationship, 406 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,200 started with soybeans, but man, it's gotten so much bigger. 407 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:00,120 It really has. 408 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:01,840 We've moved way beyond just trade. 409 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,160 Now it's about economics and geopolitics, 410 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:06,160 all tangled up together. 411 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:07,000 So yeah, exactly. 412 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,280 It's like we zoomed out from this close up on a soybean field 413 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,520 and now we're looking at the whole world from space. 414 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:14,880 So let's talk big picture. 415 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,600 What does all this mean for global power, 416 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,920 for who's in charge? 417 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,840 Are we seeing a whole new world order taking shape? 418 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,680 What, this idea of a new world order, 419 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:25,880 it gets thrown around a lot, 420 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,840 but I think it's fair to say we are seeing things shift. 421 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:29,680 Definitely. 422 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,520 Okay, shifting, but what does that even look like? 423 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,360 What are some of the ways this could all play out? 424 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,160 One scenario that people are talking about 425 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,480 is the US being sidelined. 426 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,600 Not completely gone, but maybe less influential. 427 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,120 As China builds up its own trade networks, 428 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:45,480 it becomes more sort of globally, 429 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,880 the US might not be the top dog anymore. 430 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,040 Okay, so imagine this. 431 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:50,960 China's at the center of this, 432 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,760 this web of connections, economic and political, 433 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,720 reaching out to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, 434 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,080 and the US is still there, 435 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,400 but not calling all the shots anymore. 436 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,000 Yeah, that's one possible outcome. 437 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,360 And it's not totally unrealistic. 438 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,560 China's been very deliberate in how they're engaging with, 439 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,000 especially developing countries. 440 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,640 They're investing in infrastructure, offering trade deals, 441 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:14,800 giving loans to countries 442 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,320 that might have trouble getting financing elsewhere. 443 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:18,840 We talked about those loans before. 444 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,560 There's this term debt trap diplomacy. 445 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:22,960 What exactly is that? 446 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,640 Get trap diplomacy is when a country, 447 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,480 often China in this case, 448 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:28,920 they give loans to another country, 449 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,360 but they kind of know that country 450 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:31,920 can't really pay them back. 451 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,800 And then when that happens, 452 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,760 they use that debt as leverage to get political favors, 453 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,560 or to get access to resources they want. 454 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,120 So it's like lending someone money, 455 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,280 knowing they can't repay it, 456 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,720 just so you can call in a favor later on. 457 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:45,760 It's an old tactic. 458 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:47,440 And it's something that people are worried about 459 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:48,480 with China's lending. 460 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,160 Okay, so back to these scenarios. 461 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:53,880 We've got the US maybe losing its top spot. 462 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,560 What else could happen? 463 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,520 Another possibility is that the US adapts, 464 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,520 changes its approach. 465 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,800 Maybe this whole trade war was a wake up call. 466 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,160 So like the US sees what's going on, 467 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,320 realizes they need to change, 468 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:08,840 and actually does something about it. 469 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:09,840 It could happen. 470 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:11,800 And there are signs that it already is. 471 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,920 More and more people are saying the US needs to find 472 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,200 more trading partners, 473 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:18,000 build up its own industries, strengthen its alliances. 474 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:19,720 So it's not all bad news for the US. 475 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:21,560 They could come out of this stronger. 476 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:23,400 It's possible, definitely. 477 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,840 But it takes, admitting some mistakes were made, 478 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,440 being willing to adapt, and investing in the future. 479 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:29,280 And what about China? 480 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:30,600 It seems like they're on a roll. 481 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,040 But are there any cracks in their strategy? 482 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:34,800 Anything that could trip them up? 483 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,040 Well, one potential problem, like we said before, 484 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,840 is their reliance on being authoritarian. 485 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:41,320 That top down control, 486 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,880 it's helped them grow their economy fast. 487 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,760 But it can also stifle innovation, 488 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:46,920 people taking initiative. 489 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,960 So good at following a plan, 490 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,360 but maybe not so good at coming up with new ideas 491 00:17:51,360 --> 00:17:52,520 when things change. 492 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:53,520 Exactly. 493 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,600 Another issue is that they're operating 494 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,480 within this global system that they didn't build. 495 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:00,600 But now they're trying to change it. 496 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,200 Kind of like playing a game with rules they didn't write. 497 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:04,040 Yeah. 498 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:05,840 And that could cause problems. 499 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,760 No one knows for sure how the global order will change, 500 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,640 and whether China can handle that 501 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:13,360 while still achieving its goals. 502 00:18:13,360 --> 00:18:15,000 So we've got all these possibilities, 503 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,960 the US declining, the US adapting, 504 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,800 China facing its own issues. 505 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,760 Sounds like the future is, well, pretty wide open. 506 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,240 I think that's a good way to put it. 507 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:28,000 There's so much going on, the economy, technology, politics. 508 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,400 It's impossible to say for sure what'll happen. 509 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,520 But that's what makes all of this so fascinating, right? 510 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,760 We're living through a major historical moment, 511 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,560 and we don't know how it's gonna end. 512 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:37,400 Exactly. 513 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,080 It's a reminder that history isn't set in stone. 514 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,080 We make history through our choices, 515 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:43,440 our actions, what we believe in. 516 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:44,920 So as we wrap up this deep dive, 517 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,400 I wanna leave you with this. 518 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,200 Think about what all of this means for you, for your life. 519 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,640 Stay informed, engage with different ideas, 520 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,760 be critical of what you see and hear. 521 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:55,920 Don't just accept things blindly. 522 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,000 Question everything, look for different perspectives, 523 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,240 form your own opinions. 524 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,840 And remember, the future is in our hands. 525 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,560 We create it through our choices and actions. 526 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,680 So as you go about your day, as you make decisions, 527 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,280 think about how they might be connected 528 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,400 to these global forces we've been discussing. 529 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:13,800 The world is changing. 530 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,640 It's up to us to navigate those changes 531 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,760 with wisdom, curiosity, and a commitment 532 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,040 to building a better future. 533 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,240 Couldn't have said it better myself. 534 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:22,080 Yeah. 535 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:22,920 That's it for this deep dive. 536 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:44,400 Thanks for joining us.