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Hello, and welcome to the Spotlight Vancouver podcast.

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I am your host, Doug Varenas, and today we're going to get into the speech that Trump made

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to the joint session of Congress, and we're going to separate the news from the noise,

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and we're going to determine what bearing this has, if any, on the Vancouver real estate

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market.

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I know there's lots to talk about.

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Let's get into it.

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So, the other night, Trump had his joint session to Congress, and to no one's surprise, he did

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Trumpy things.

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He's the best president since George Washington.

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America's on fire, and it can only be put out by him, and he laid out his plan, and

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he did his thing.

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He did his general president, Trump Spiel, his kind of act.

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And so, this isn't a political statement.

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This is just what he does.

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And so, and I've been sucked into this too, and what I recommend you do is to just stop.

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Don't react.

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Don't do the reacting to everything he says, and you see something on TV, and he says his

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crazy thing, and you go, ah!

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And whatever your opinion is, it's great, or it's this, or it's that.

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People get bogged down into the noise.

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And then what happens is they get analysis paralysis, and they don't know how to react,

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and they don't know how to interpret it.

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When there's really, there's things to interpret, and there's things to pay attention to for

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sure, but all the bellicose statements and the grandstanding is just, I look at it as

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like an act, and that's his thing, and you gotta read between the lines, but the first

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thing you gotta do is just take a breath and try not to react to all that stuff.

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I mean, have an opinion about it, but don't let it affect your decision-making process.

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Take a step back.

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Think about what's going on.

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Try to get to the root of it.

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I'm gonna help you do that today, especially with regards to the real estate market.

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But I look at President Trump as kind of the big brother who teases you, like, I'm not

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touching you.

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I'm not touching you.

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He's just trying to poke and prod, get a reaction.

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I know this because I was that big brother, so apologies, Scott.

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I did these things.

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So I know what it's like.

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Poke, poke, poke.

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Poke the bear, make statements, get a reaction from people.

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And President Trump is a master at doing that.

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That's what he does.

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That's his deal.

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So what were the actual takeaways and how is this gonna affect the real estate market,

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if any?

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Let's do a little deep dive into that.

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We also had a jobs report today that was just kind of flat.

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The stock market has reacted to it just kind of bleh.

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It was down earlier.

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It's been down the last couple of days.

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This is not financial advice, but I'm definitely buying this dip a little bit at a time, buying

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it on the way down, monitoring it because I do think it's a tremendous opportunity long

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term.

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I think that's what you're interested in, that's what you do.

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I'm looking at investing right now.

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And so what actually came out of that speech that was interesting was basically it's this

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theme of returning manufacturing to the states.

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And I think that's really what it is.

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Like during the COVID, we had the infamous supply chain disruption stuff and you couldn't

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get anything and you couldn't get medicine and products and this and that.

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And so I think strategically one of the takeaways from his speech was that I think through these

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tariffs, he's looking to build that American manufacturing base and to make that supply

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chain a little more local.

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And I think that strategically could be a good idea given that we do depend on foreign countries

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quite a bit, especially China and Vietnam and a lot of other countries.

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And that he wants to bring these manufacturing processes back to the US and he's going to

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do that possibly through tariffs and having investment by the private sector into the

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US.

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And it's unclear what long-term effect that would have.

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Does that make products more expensive?

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Because we have to pay American workers, livable wages and benefits.

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Because the big advantage to outsourcing a supply chain is that you get those products

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are cheaper because they don't have the same labor costs.

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That's been our whole business model for quite a long time.

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So the tariffs, we've had tariff talk before.

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I mean, in the first Trump presidency, it was a lot of tariff talk.

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It sort of basically came to nothing.

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And so I am giving the chance of the tariffs actually happening at like a coin toss basically.

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And at the end of the day, I think they're more of a bargaining chip and they do get

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a reaction from the countries that he threatens tariffs on.

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So Canada and Mexico, we've seen them sort of capitulate early on in the Trump presidency

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when he's mentioned tariffs.

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I think overall, those countries have more to lose than we do.

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The smaller countries that do business with us with those tariffs are going to be hurt

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more is my opinion.

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And I think that's what would happen.

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I'm not as sure with China because we do rely on them quite a bit for a lot of our manufacturing

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needs.

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It's unclear, but what is clear is that we don't know if they're going to happen.

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And this could be a huge bluff.

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So I think what would happen if we did see those tariffs and they went on is the price

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of certain goods would rise and that would include home manufacturing supplies like lumber,

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flooring, whatever is used to build a house.

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The prices for those construction materials would go up and then we would see those price

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increases being passed on to the consumer.

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So if the Trump tariffs were to go into effect and we saw that happen, there's a chance that

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home, new construction especially, could get a lot more expensive, which would mean in

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my mind, if new construction got to be less competitive, we would see more demand in resale

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homes where they're already built.

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So you don't have to worry about that.

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And so I think it would mostly affect new construction.

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And of course, if people had to pay more for certain goods just from a consumer perspective,

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they might be less willing to buy a home, which could drive prices down.

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It is really hard to say what would happen.

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Theoretically, price of new construction would go up if the tariffs, the cost of tariffs

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were passed to those builders.

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Again, not sure this is even going to happen.

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Could be a big nothing burger and a lot of noise.

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So my advice again is to ignore the noise.

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Let's look at some data.

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Let's think about what's actually going on because part of what Trump also mentioned

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in that speech, the joint session speech to Congress was that private sector companies

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were going to invest billions of dollars into the American economy.

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He mentioned Apple's $500 billion investment in the US.

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He mentioned Taiwan Semiconductor investing in the US.

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I know that certain pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly have earmarked money to deal

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with those supply chain issues and to manufacture more in the US.

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So there's a lot of movement to bringing that supply chain back here and investing in the

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US.

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So I think overall, these are very bullish signals that the economy is going to be strong

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in the future and that these companies wouldn't invest if they didn't believe they were going

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to see a return on that investment.

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So that's also what I took from that speech is that there's a lot of investment coming

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in from these big companies and that usually is going to mean that the economy is going

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to do a lot better.

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We'll have to see.

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Again, it's really hard to, because of all the chaos and all the noise, it is hard to

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know what's actually going to happen because we haven't had the tariffs yet.

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We have, this is supposed to happen on April 2nd, not April 1st, April 2nd.

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We'll see.

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Like I said, I believe that it's basically a bargaining chip to get people to renegotiate

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deals and we've seen this act before.

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So I think it's more of a bargaining chip.

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But the other news that we got from that speech was the massive amount of investment that

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companies are looking to make in America.

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And I think that's always a good sign when companies do that because it just means the

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economy, they forecast the economy being strong and that people are going to be able to buy

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their product and that they're going to see a return on their investment.

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So when you actually see that money flowing in, put your money where your mouth is.

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When you see that money and companies making those investments, there's nothing abstract

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about that.

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That is an investment that they're looking to see a return on and they believe that the

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economy is going to be strong.

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So if we take a look, let's just take a look at the weekly Clark County numbers here.

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So I'm looking at 13.6% week over week growth in the median sales price, 11.3% increase in

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the average sales price, 14% increase in new listings, 41.7% increase in closed sales.

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All of this is super bullish news.

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All of this means that the Clark County housing market is strong and that we're seeing some

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appreciation and activity increases.

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On the ground, there's more multiple offers, especially for homes in great locations that

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are remodeled.

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But all across the board, we're just seeing more activity, more offers.

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Man, I even saw multiple offers on a place that I did an open house on that.

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I mean, it needed a lot of work.

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It needed a lot of work.

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It was in a great neighborhood and then they ended up getting multiple offers and this

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was on a place that needed like some sewer work done.

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So all in all, the market looks incredibly strong here in Clark County.

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And I'm not just saying that, I have numbers to back it up.

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So what does Trump's tariffs mean for the housing market in Vancouver?

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Right now, nothing.

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It means that it's roaring, it's busy.

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And if you're on the fence, again, you always have to look at your personal situation, but

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do not listen to the noise.

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You honestly have to train yourself to just tune out the noise and pay attention to what's

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actually going on.

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It helps if you can talk to professionals that know what they're talking instead of

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your grandma and the guy at the bar and the people that have an opinion about the noise.

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Because ultimately what I've noticed in people that hyper-focus on all the noise is they

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just get paralysis.

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They just can't move.

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They can't make a decision.

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The sky is falling.

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They're so worried about it.

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Or they're so focused on it.

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They lose track of their own situation and what they can control.

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And so they're really hyper-focused on all the pomp and circumstance that we've seen

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since Trump retook office.

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But if you look at the data of what's happening in Clark County and you look at the overall

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trends that are going on with, like I mentioned, the private sector investment in American

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manufacturing as well as the general 10 towards deregulation.

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Deregulation tends to be good for the economy.

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Whatever your personal beliefs on that, they tend to juice the economy when there's less

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red tape that people have to go through.

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The potential lowering of taxes, corporate taxes, personal tax rates, that's always good

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for the economy too.

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Nobody likes to pay taxes.

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And when tax rates are lowered, that tends to boost the economy as well.

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So there's a lot of signs that we're looking at a pretty strong economy.

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Like I said, the job report came out and it wasn't spectacular, but it wasn't disastrous.

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I think there was like 145,000 jobs created.

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It's hard to interpret those statistics because they're so kind of juiced one way or the other.

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There's a certain amount of politics involved with those as well.

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But overall, there was no alarming news there.

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There was no alarming news in the economy and the tariffs had not had.

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There is no tariffs right now for one.

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And two, it's doubtful right now.

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We'll see because there's going to be a lag effect if there is actual tariffs.

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But for right now, the housing market in Clark County remains incredibly robust and is becoming

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more active.

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If you just look over the week, over week stats, people are buying and selling homes.

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We did see a little dip in interest rates.

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Trump mentioned that in his speech as well.

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He wants the interest rates to come down.

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So for whatever political influence he has, he's going to use that to try to get interest

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rates down.

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It's unclear if that's going to happen.

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I would not count on the interest rates going down.

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I would operate in a high 6%, 7% interest rate environment.

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That's how I would do my math.

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That's what I would plan for.

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I would not wait around for the interest rates because you're going to miss out on appreciation

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that we've seen recently and that we've seen historically.

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And so again, if you're trying to time these things and you're trying to figure out what's

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going to happen, I sincerely believe that.

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I believe you're going to miss an opportunity.

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So it's more about your personal situation and where you're at and what you're looking

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for and if you're ready and your financial situation.

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So tune it out.

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Watch it, pull what's valuable and ignore the rest and make a decision based on that.

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So again, sky's not falling.

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A lot of positive economic indicators, a lot of positive indicators on the housing front.

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I hope this helps you, if it does, feel free to like and subscribe, leave a comment, let

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me know what you noticed and what you're seeing.

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I'd love to hear about that.

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If you're looking to buy or sell here in Vancouver, Washington or the Portland metro area, reach

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out to me.

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If you're looking to move out of state, I have a robust network of agents that I know personally

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that can help you out as well.

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So definitely get in touch with me about that.

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I hope this really helps.

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Again, I've had to do this myself and kind of make this into a practice, but just to

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take a deep breath and just try to ignore the bellicose rhetoric, focus on what's actually

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going on and you'll be a lot less stressed out and you'll be able to make better decisions.

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So I really hope this helps and I hope you're doing well and I'll catch you on the next

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episode.

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See you soon, everybody.