Hello, and welcome to the Spotlight Vancouver podcast.
I am your host, Doug Varinas, licensed real estate agent in Washington and Oregon.
And today on the show, it's just me.
We're going to talk about the housing market in Vancouver.
And then I'd like to go over some common objections and barriers to home ownership
and how we might overcome them.
So if you're new here, welcome.
I appreciate you watching and listening.
The feedback I've gotten has been tremendous.
So thank you very much.
As of recording right now, we are in Snowpocalypse in the Portland metro
area in Vancouver.
There is a dusting of snow.
Schools have been shut down.
Facilities have been shut down.
Thoughts and prayers and hashtag Vancouver strong.
We will rebuild.
Believe me, we are a strong community and we will get through this dusting of snow we have.
I actually sent some pictures to my in-laws who live in northern Minnesota
and told them about our school closure and they think it's hilarious.
So that's where we're at.
But if you are out there, do stay safe because when these things do happen,
people kind of drive crazy and things get a little wacky.
So do take care.
So a little bit on the Vancouver housing market, some numbers for you that I have here.
And these are week over week numbers.
And so the median sales price has risen just over 5.5% to 564,000.
This is up pretty significantly over the last couple of weeks, which is kind of interesting to me.
The average sales price is up 23.4% to $682,000.
So the disparity between the median and the average suggests to me that there are a number of outliers
to the positive side or to the higher price side that are skewing these numbers,
which is interesting and I'll give you my theory behind that.
I'm seeing new listings down 12.3%, pending sales down a little bit,
and closed sales down 15.9%.
So weird that there's new listings are down, sales are down,
time on market up 26.4% to 91 days.
That's the highest I've seen it in quite a while, which means homes,
less homes are coming on the market, less sales are happening,
and they're sitting on the market longer.
But yet the median sales price and the average sales price are going up,
which suggests to me that there is quite a large difference between homes that are coming on the market.
So you're seeing higher price homes, homes that have seen significant remodels and improvements
in great areas and those tend to sell faster because I can tell you those homes aren't sitting on the market for 91 days.
So what I'm seeing is I'm seeing a lot of homes in the sub $500,000 range that are a little bit rough and ready.
A lot of them are being sold as is.
A lot of them are being our state sales, so people that need to sell.
And so in that range, I'm seeing a lot of bargains, if you will,
if you're willing to put in that sweat equity and kind of take on a little bit of a, I wouldn't say a risk,
but a lot of work, I'm seeing a lot of deals.
So I myself as a real estate investor, if I had unlimited capital would be acquiring some of these.
I've seen quite a number of them and they're in decent neighborhoods.
And so recently I saw one in the Lincoln neighborhood priced, what I believe is below market.
I think it was on purpose to get some interest and that one went pending in a week and they had multiple offers.
And you see deadlines on that like offer deadlines.
So give us your highest and best, which means there's a lot of interest.
And then I'm seeing some that look pretty rough, that need a lot of work, that are sitting on the market.
Whereas I mentioned before, the homes that are skewing the average and the median sales price
are those ones that are obviously in highly desirable neighborhoods and they're fully remodeled.
And so, you know, since COVID, we've really seen a hay-shaped recovery, you know,
a K as the diagonal lines, one going up and one going down.
And what that means is the people that have began to struggle during,
especially during COVID during lockdowns are continuing to struggle.
And the people that were able to resist those kind of challenges are able to work from home,
their wealth and their prosperity is growing.
So we're really living in two different worlds,
one of which is one of able to absorb this inflation and the increasing prices
because, you know, they're in higher skilled jobs,
they have assets that have grown like stocks or real estate and those folks are doing well.
Well, on the other hand, we have people that work in service industries or industries more prone to
economic ups and downs and just not doing as well.
They're not able to grow their wages as much.
They're really impacted by the higher grocery prices, higher gas prices.
And so we're really living in two different countries, I think, economically.
Obviously, politically, that's been happening for quite some time now, at least since 2016.
We live in kind of different worlds, but that has a financial backing too.
That has there's a financial component to that where people are either prospering or they're struggling.
And there's not a lot of in between.
People are being pushed to one side or the other, depending on their situation.
And so I think that's also reflected in the housing market and where you're seeing people
that are able to buy these and fully remodeled, more expensive homes in desirable areas,
they're continuing to buy and that is really what's propping up that portion of the market.
And then first time home buyers, they're still there.
They're still getting into the market, but it's a little bit more difficult.
We're seeing debt at all time highs, consumer debt, so like credit cards, student debt,
hear about that a lot.
And so really, we're living in two worlds and I'm seeing that in the housing market.
I'm seeing you have desirable remodeled homes and then you have some ones that are just like
estate sales, so they need to sell, something happened.
And those homes tend to sit on the market a little bit more, but I see a lot of opportunity
there, especially for first time home buyers who are willing to take on those projects
and are able to build some equity in those.
So a lot of opportunity, but interesting things happen in the housing market right now.
Some of them are just cyclical.
So you'll hear like the housing market's heating up now.
And even though the statistics aren't really showing that week over week, still pretty
slow.
So that's interesting, but you'll hear that the housing market's like it's heating up,
there's more offers and stuff.
And part of that's just cyclical as we come out of the holidays into the new year, past
the election, things are supposed to heat up cyclically, but interestingly enough, we're
seeing kind of a not that happening.
Actually, it's sort of the opposite if we just look at the statistics.
Sorry, I'm looking down at my statistics there if you're wondering.
Oh, there's my dog.
All right, I'm close to that.
And so let's get into some reasons, some barriers and objections I've heard recently
and really I hear them quite a bit from potential homeowners about the barriers or the challenges
to buying a home.
And like I said, I think if you are able to, obviously this is going to depend a lot on
your personal situation, your financial situation, where you're at, a lot of factors.
And so these barriers are not unique to you.
I think a lot of people that are looking to get into buying a home feel this way and totally
get it.
But a lot of them are self-induced.
And so let's talk about a couple of these.
And there's one I want to get to first, and this one's been an interesting one.
And I might be hearing more about this, but I met a lovely, an older woman at an open
house named Linda, who's a lovely person.
We chatted, I reached out to her later because she mentioned that she and her husband might
be looking to downsize and buy something in Vancouver.
Great.
And so I was communicating with her and then she mentioned something to the effect of,
you know, I'm not sure that it's a good time to sell with everything going on right now.
And I want to dig into that a little bit deeper because the way I interpreted that is because
of all the things in the news, all the political stuff going on, the doge, the, you know, Russia
Ukraine, just everything you hear in the news cycle.
And what I thought was interesting about that is there wasn't anything really specific
or anything that I could tell that was related to the housing market that she brought up.
So it was just a general anxiety about what's going on and what's happening and whether
that might be provide an inopportune time to sell her home.
And again, very personal, like it could maybe not be the right time for her to sell her
home.
Again, that's a personal thing, personal decision based on personal factors.
But if they are based on this general anxiety about what's going on out there and the general
political situation in the news cycle, I would push back on that because very little of it
has anything to do with real estate currently, especially on a local level, because, you
know, doge, I don't know what necessarily that would have to do with the real estate
market.
And there's a lot of noise and a lot of hyperbole out in the news.
That's what the news does.
It's designed to create an emotional reaction.
So you'll continue to watch and then you'll be like, oh, no, what's going on?
And it's designed to give you a sense of anxiety.
And I think that's where she was kind of coming from.
Not sure because I'm not sure what's going to happen.
And I would again, would push back on that because a lot of this stuff doesn't have anything
to do with buying or selling a home or what's going on in the real estate market specifically.
It's just a lot of new stuff and a lot of it's like, you know, shutting down departments
that don't have anything really to do with real estate.
And not like these things are just to be ignored.
But honestly, I would stress that going back to your own personal situation where you're
at what your needs are, what your situation is, is going to be a lot more of a telltale
about where you can go forward as far as real estate versus responding to what you're seeing
on the news because frankly, it's just a lot of noise.
And so Linda, if you're out there, and I'll let you know this personally, but make sure
that's relevant to your personal situation and the market in general.
And the best way to do this, talk to a real estate professional who's able to give you
some insight and not respond to what's going on in the news.
And so what I find is when people are more focused on what's going on in the news and
all the stuff that's happening in the media, they lose sight of what their situation is
and the things they can do to improve their own situation, like earning more money, doing
something to increase their income or increase their savings rate or consulting with a mortgage
lender or real estate professional about their personal situation and how that's going to
affect them buying or selling a home.
Again, ignore the hype, ignore the noise and focus on your personal situation.
And I think you'll get a lot more clarity.
Having said that recently in the news, there was a Federal Reserve, a CPI report, the
Consumer Price Index report indicating that inflation has risen again slightly, so up
to 3%.
Again we know it's not 3% because when we go to the grocery store, if something was
a dollar and now it's $2, you know that that's not 3% of an increase.
So again, we are looking at 7% interest rates.
That's where we're at.
That's where we're going to be.
We're going to be at 7%.
If we're down a little bit lower than that, I would be surprised and by lower, I mean
6.5.
And that's the world we're living in.
And that kind of brings me into the interest rate barrier or objection I hear is waiting
for interest rates to drop.
Yes, we're at 7%.
That's where we're at.
And so that is factored into your financial situation and what you're able to afford.
And again, so going back to that personal assessment of where you're at and getting more professional
input on your situation is going to bring you some clarity because if you're just looking
at interest rate as a number and when it gets to this number, then you'll act.
Then I'm afraid that you're going to be waiting for a while and that might be disadvantageous
to you if prices keep going up because then you're going to end up paying more for a home
and the interest rate is going to do what it's going to do.
And I'm not seeing any evidence of it getting any lower any time soon.
So again, the interest rate, the people who are focused on the rate number, zoom out and
zoom to your situation.
And are we sensing a theme here?
I think we got a theme here about analyzing your own needs, your own financial situation,
where you're at and going with that instead of focusing on a number and the interest rates.
Because the 3% interest rate, I'm not going to see it.
I think if President Trump had his way, he would knock it down at 3% right away, juice
the economy, that's what he wants to do.
So anything's possible, but I don't see that happening given the rate of inflation.
All the indications are that it's just, that's where it's at.
We're at 7%.
Maybe we'll get a little bit lower.
Again, personal situation is key, analyzing your needs and where you're at.
A second objection, this is really an objection.
This is just something I see from potential home buyers is a mindset.
This is really important because I believe that as a first time home buyer especially,
it's a big mindset shift to go from renting to owning.
It's a big jump in not only like your finances and this and that, but just in your mindset.
Because you're going from kind of a passive participant.
You're going to someone where things kind of happened to you, you're a renter, they
raised the rent, they told me I have to leave because they're selling it.
You're kind of on this life raft and you're moving along and now you're finally having
some skin in the game.
You're moving to an equity ownership position as a homeowner and that's a big mindset shift.
So I find that people instead of just saying, this is really big and just kind of grappling
with that, then these other little things start to come in and people will start finding
all these excuses why it's not impossible.
You can't buy a home now, it's impossible.
Homes are so expensive, I hear this a lot.
Again, what's your personal situation?
Where are you at?
What are you doing?
And realizing that yeah, it is a mindset shift and it's going to, you got to break through
because I do believe your own mind is a barrier to home ownership sometimes if you've just
not had that skin in the game and you're moving from that position of renting to owning.
So I'm going to say the people that I don't hear this as much, but the market drop folks
waiting for the market to drop and the market to crash.
We haven't seen that with our median sales price.
We've seen it increase despite the less activity on the sales and listing side.
Again, the median home price has gone up significantly in the past few months.
So I just don't know when this crash is coming.
We have enough people who are doing well on that K-shaped recovery to keep buying and
then we still have first time home buyers coming on the scene too.
So just not seeing it.
And again, you know, is this a mindset thing where you have other anxiety or some other
questions that you need answered before you can proceed?
And that's why you're kind of bringing up this like, I'm going to wait for the catastrophe
to happen, the black swan event before I buy a home.
So I think this is an important question to ask yourself.
And I do think a lot of this is mental.
So I guess I'm challenging you to, if you have some of these thoughts to like go to
the root of them and because you might, I mean, you might not be ready.
And that's another objection or barrier I hear is I don't know if I'm ready.
I'm not, I'm not ready.
And you might not be ready.
Could could be the honest to God's truth that just financially or just where you're at in
life or what you're doing or your employment situation, something is unstable and you're
really not ready.
And but the, but I'm not ready is again, could be just a mindset thing.
And I think the more information that you have, the better decision you're going to
be able to make.
And so I do think reaching out to professionals to get advice.
This is what we're here for as a real estate agent, my partner lender, I mean, we're educators
when it gets down to it.
And people that are here to make that process smoother, more transparent, just easier to
understand.
And so the more information you have about your specific situation and the process, the
more comfortable you're going to be with it because, man, I was super uncomfortable when
I bought my first home, a condominium in St. John's, the whole process was a little
overwhelming.
I had to grapple with like, wow, now I own that like, I had this debt and I am, I have
to take responsibility for the maintenance of my home.
And when something breaks, it's on me and that's an extra expense and an extra responsibility.
And so, yeah, it was, you know, and I had a certain amount of anxiety about even like
the financial side, it's very, you know, it seems very complicated.
There's all these people, you know, in suits and lasers and, you know, they, you know,
that if you don't pay your bills, they're going to foreclose on you.
And it's just kind of, it can be kind of this big deal.
And I think I know that I could have benefited from some more information.
And I think a lot of potential homeowners could also just benefit from more information.
And I think a barrier to that is like, well, then they're going to want to like push me
and they're going to want to like sell me something.
Like then you get that resistance where it's like, oh, I don't want to be like, I don't
want to reach out because then they're going to like, pester me about buying or selling.
And that's really not the case because the last thing that I want to do or really any
real estate professional wants to do is like, push somebody to make a decision, they're
going to not be comfortable with because I don't know about other people, but I want
to service people for their second home, their third home, their friend's home.
And so I want to make sure that they're super happy and comfortable with where they're at
and what they have purchased and the process they've gone through.
And so it's very important for me to provide that information so they can make the best
decision, whether that is buying or not buying.
So I think we've covered the market today.
I think we've covered a little bit of these objections.
And so I'd love to hear from you about your own process going through this process of
buying a home and what you have found useful and what you have found not useful and sort
of maybe your own questions or anxieties.
I'd love to hear them in the comments.
Shoot me an email DM.
And also I want to remind people that if you're looking to buy or sell in another state, I
have an extensive network of real estate professionals and agents that can help you
do that.
Some states that I really specialize in are Georgia, Texas, California, Idaho, North Carolina,
did I mention Arizona?
Yes, Arizona.
So please reach out if you are looking to buy in those states as I have a network of professionals
that do really great work and can help you do that.
And with that, I will say I do.
I appreciate you watching and listening and I'll see you next time on Spotlight.
Vancouver, Washington, have a great day.