1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,040
Hello everybody and welcome to Spotlight Vancouver, Washington.

2
00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:09,800
I'm your host Doug Varenas, licensed real estate agent in Washington and Oregon.

3
00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:11,680
Happy New Year to everybody.

4
00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,360
Hope you're safe and doing well.

5
00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:19,280
It's just me today and today I'm going to be doing a little bit of a recap and some

6
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,160
predictions for 2025.

7
00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:28,640
2024 was a crazy year for myself and just in general.

8
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,800
The real estate market was very interesting.

9
00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,400
Nationally, it was pretty slow.

10
00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,680
Historically slow as far as listings and sales go.

11
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:44,160
There was a lot of anxiety about the presidential election.

12
00:00:44,160 --> 00:00:48,160
Obviously, inflation was a huge factor and huge topic for everybody.

13
00:00:48,160 --> 00:00:55,200
It was just kind of a year of uncertainty and we had a lot of stuff going on in Vancouver.

14
00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:01,440
Yeah, it was also an interesting market slower than it has been in the past.

15
00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,200
Personally, my business did very well.

16
00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:09,680
Thank you to everybody out there and I just want to take a moment to thank everybody for

17
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,440
liking and subscribing if you find any value in this.

18
00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,280
Give it a like, give it a review, give it a follow.

19
00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:22,360
I really appreciate it and if you have any suggestions, people you think would be good

20
00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:27,000
to be interviewed on the show, any ideas or thoughts, I would love to hear them.

21
00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,360
This is definitely a work in progress.

22
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,840
So I appreciate all of you out there who have listened and supported along the way and I'm

23
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,800
looking forward to this new year.

24
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:42,920
As I was saying, the real estate market in Vancouver was up and down.

25
00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,480
It was a little unpredictable.

26
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:52,280
We had about a 3.7 increase in real estate prices for the year.

27
00:01:52,280 --> 00:02:00,320
Now I had done a short predictions video for 2024 and one of my predictions was that the

28
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,640
real estate market would appreciate roughly 5%.

29
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,040
So I was a little bit off there, I was a little bit optimistic.

30
00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:11,200
And again, it's different for every home, every area.

31
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:17,320
Some homes appreciate more or less than others and some areas appreciate more or less than

32
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:18,320
others.

33
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:24,440
And the Clark County area appreciated just under 4%.

34
00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,720
Another one of my predictions for last year was that rates were not going to come down.

35
00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:34,320
I think that was a little unpopular, but it was correct.

36
00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:48,280
Stood fast at 6 to 7%, actually probably closer to 6.5% to 7% all year, actually ticking up

37
00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,640
into almost the 8% range at one point.

38
00:02:51,640 --> 00:02:57,880
We had some phantom hopes of a massive rate cut that never materialized.

39
00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:04,200
It just the Federal Reserve reduced rates, but that didn't impact the mortgage industry.

40
00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:05,720
That's frequently what happens.

41
00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,760
A rate cut does not automatically mean a cut in rates.

42
00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,800
So that was one of my predictions that actually came true.

43
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,960
Another one was that 70s homes were going to be the new mid-centuries.

44
00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:19,440
That was just a personal one.

45
00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:25,160
Love me a 70s home and still do quality builds and I just happen to like them.

46
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:33,240
But I'm not sure that was the overall trend in 2024 for everybody.

47
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,200
We'll see what happens in 2025.

48
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:38,680
Kicking off the new year.

49
00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,600
Wow, it's got a lot going on.

50
00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,400
We got a new president.

51
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,760
We have the Trump presidency.

52
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,720
We have MAHA.

53
00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:51,600
We have DOGE and whatever you think about those, it's going to be fascinating.

54
00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,920
It's going to be an interesting start to the year.

55
00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,240
It's going to be an interesting 2025.

56
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:57,480
Cautiously optimistic.

57
00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:58,880
I'm just optimistic.

58
00:03:58,880 --> 00:03:59,880
You have to be.

59
00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:05,120
And I think some of the things that are being said, I would find it hard to disagree with.

60
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,200
We'll see what the implementation looks like.

61
00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:12,240
But when somebody says, oh, there's waste in government spending and we're going to try

62
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,040
to tackle it, you go, cool.

63
00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,120
That sounds like probably a good idea.

64
00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:17,120
Hard to disagree with that.

65
00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:23,240
Or when somebody says, our food is making us unhealthy, we should take a look at that.

66
00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:27,920
And we should take a look at the relationship between, you know, big pharma and the media.

67
00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,760
It's hard not to go, oh, okay, that sounds reasonable.

68
00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,520
Sounds like something we should look at.

69
00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:39,640
You know, what the implementation looks like of those things, we'll have to see.

70
00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,440
Cautiously optimistic overall for 2025.

71
00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:49,280
Of course, I remain bullish on Vancouver, Washington, specifically in the Pacific Northwest.

72
00:04:49,280 --> 00:04:53,720
But we're going to, because it's a great place to live, it's a great area.

73
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,960
There's a lot of advantages to living here.

74
00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:57,760
And I see it growing.

75
00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:02,680
They believe the population of Vancouver continues to grow at around 2% a year.

76
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,160
That's pretty good.

77
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:09,360
Overall, people are starting to come around to the fact that there's a lot of advantages

78
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,040
to living here.

79
00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,000
So some of which I went over in a previous podcast and we'll continue to go over.

80
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:22,520
But I know you're looking for some hot takes for 2025.

81
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:27,680
And one of my first ones is going to be one that I didn't think I was going to say because

82
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:34,560
I came very close to doing a video that was going to be very clickbaity about Portland

83
00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,960
and how it was over.

84
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:43,400
Portland was done and it was such the low hanging fruit during the pandemic and even

85
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:49,520
recently to pick on Portland and to proclaim the demise of Portland.

86
00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,600
And it's not a great place to live.

87
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:52,600
And I did this whole video.

88
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,560
It was pretty clickbaity.

89
00:05:54,560 --> 00:06:00,320
And I think the thumbnail was going to be like explosions in the background and rioters

90
00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:04,040
and fentanyl zombies and just all this kind of stuff.

91
00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:05,920
And I talked to my wife about it.

92
00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,880
And I said, I don't know if this is a great thing to publish.

93
00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:11,760
And she's like, yeah, I don't not sure.

94
00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:17,520
It just seems kind of like kind of negative and kicking somebody when they're down.

95
00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:18,600
And I've lived in Portland.

96
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:19,960
I live for quite a while.

97
00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,560
Like, you know, over a decade, I lived in Portland and, you know, love the city.

98
00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:25,920
I love my time there.

99
00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,920
And so I didn't publish the video.

100
00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,280
But my first prediction of 2025 is going to be Portland is back.

101
00:06:33,280 --> 00:06:38,520
Portland is doing, taking the steps to become more livable and becoming the city that I

102
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:43,360
think that it could be in reaching its potential because it really took some hits there when

103
00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:47,080
they decriminalized all drug possession and use.

104
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:52,160
And it got to be just open air drug market and trash can fires.

105
00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,840
And it was the stuff that you saw on TV.

106
00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:56,560
It was a tumultuous time.

107
00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:01,360
And I think they've taken steps to deal with that and deal with that the best they can.

108
00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,240
And my time spent in Portland the last couple of times I've been there.

109
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:12,280
I get the feeling from the people around and just the environment that it's coming back.

110
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,000
It's becoming more livable because there was a time where it just it just wasn't.

111
00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:20,040
So one of my hot takes for 2025 is that Portland is going to is going to come back.

112
00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:21,160
You know, it's a big city.

113
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:22,800
They do they have a lot going on.

114
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,560
There's a lot of opportunity there.

115
00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:25,920
It's not where I choose to live.

116
00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:31,280
And it's not right for everybody, but it is it's on the comeback.

117
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,960
And I believe they're taking steps to make it more livable.

118
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:40,800
Another prediction for 2025 is maybe this is not exciting, but it's going to be Trump

119
00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:46,480
versus Jerome Powell in a battle, a rate battle for the ages.

120
00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:51,280
And there's nothing that the incoming administration would like better than to have interest rates

121
00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,280
come down for homes and kind of juice the economy.

122
00:07:55,280 --> 00:08:00,680
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated, you know, they're not going to succumb to pressure.

123
00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:02,560
And so I think you're going to have this stalemate.

124
00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:07,600
We're still going to be in that six to seven percent rate range for people, and that's

125
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,560
just going to be how it is.

126
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,960
And I think people are beginning to adjust to that new rate environment.

127
00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:17,800
Again, I recommend rather than focusing on that or waiting for rates to come down that

128
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:23,320
you focus on, you know, your financial situation and where you're at in that process.

129
00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:28,360
Reach out to a loan officer you trust, reach out to a real estate agent you trust and get

130
00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,880
the information you need to make a decision.

131
00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,640
I think it's a person by person decision, but I don't think rates are going anywhere

132
00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:34,640
in 2025.

133
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:39,440
We're going to be hovering along in that range, barring some unforeseen event.

134
00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:44,480
My next prediction for 2025 in regards to real estate is it's going to be small houses

135
00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,080
are going to be in demand and larger houses are going to be in demand.

136
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:55,160
So we've seen a relaxing, a further relaxing of zoning for ADUs, accessory dwelling units

137
00:08:55,160 --> 00:09:00,600
and detached ADUs and specifically these cottages that are coming on the scene that

138
00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:05,320
can be up to a thousand feet and they're basically they can be freestanding homes.

139
00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:11,120
Again, this is depending on zoning and the size of your lot, etc.

140
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:17,000
There's other factors, but conceivably you can put at least one cottage basically.

141
00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,280
It's almost a freestanding home up to a thousand square feet on your property.

142
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:28,320
I think we're going to see those popping up more than we have in the past.

143
00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,360
They haven't quite caught fire yet, but I think people are going to start doing those

144
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:39,960
either as a rental income to kind of or to put family members in or we could see some

145
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:44,920
people with bigger lots subdividing and kind of selling off those smaller homes on smaller

146
00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:45,920
lots.

147
00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:50,040
You're already seeing this with new construction with like the 3000 square foot lot and a

148
00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:51,040
smaller home on that.

149
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,920
And I think for first time home buyers, that's going to be attractive.

150
00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,560
On the other hand, I think we're going to see the multifamily trend start to take off

151
00:09:58,560 --> 00:09:59,560
again.

152
00:09:59,560 --> 00:10:04,360
Again, these are just my predictions, but I'm seeing kind of two kinds of scenarios.

153
00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:09,560
One, it's like older middle age folks with older parents looking to bring them into the

154
00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:10,560
home.

155
00:10:10,560 --> 00:10:12,880
So they're shopping for home for their parents.

156
00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,080
And then on the other hand, I see those same parents, some of them are shopping for their

157
00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:17,160
children.

158
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:22,120
And what they're finding is that, and I agree, is that passing on their estate after they

159
00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,280
pass away doesn't do anybody any good.

160
00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:28,560
So when you're 60 or however old you are and your parents pass away and you get that money,

161
00:10:28,560 --> 00:10:32,360
you're sort of, it's not as helpful as it would have been earlier in your life.

162
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:39,480
And so I'm seeing more people plan their estate around gifting, purchasing a home, putting

163
00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:45,880
it in a trust and sort of having that set up for their children already when they're

164
00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,480
in their late twenties, early thirties, earlier in life to kind of help them along.

165
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,560
And they're looking to kind of cohabitate in that situation as well.

166
00:10:52,560 --> 00:10:56,600
So they're looking out for their own future care while at the same time setting their

167
00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,680
children up for success as far as owning a home.

168
00:11:01,680 --> 00:11:05,600
So I think you're going to see that a lot more.

169
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:13,360
I haven't quite seen that to the degree, but I've in the buyers, some of the buyers that

170
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,200
I deal with are these sorts of people.

171
00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,840
So multi-generation starting to heat up.

172
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:27,760
So those are kind of my general hot takes and predictions for 2025.

173
00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:36,400
I would expect home prices to continue to continue to increase again, not to the, you

174
00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:38,600
know, nothing COVID related.

175
00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:43,960
So I wouldn't be surprised with another three to 5% increase this year.

176
00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,600
I think it's going to be the year of the balanced market.

177
00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:52,320
We're already seeing that home prices in 2024 in Vancouver.

178
00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:59,000
The median sale price kind of went from mid to high to mid to high 500s.

179
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:03,720
And it kind of went along this wavy little graph and we saw a lot more balance.

180
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:08,040
So we saw 2025 could be the year of the buyer.

181
00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:13,080
I think people are just going to realize, you know, these are where rates are.

182
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,560
I'm seeing a lot more concessions given by sellers as they come to realize like, hey,

183
00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:21,520
I can't price my home like it's 2021, 2022 anymore.

184
00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:26,240
Like the reality is kind of setting in and like home prices have stabilized or he may

185
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,240
be even dipped a little bit.

186
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,800
And so I think we're going to see a lot more of a balanced market.

187
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:38,640
So I don't think it's going to be this seller's market where they can collect, you know, 2030

188
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,200
over asking and inspections are waived.

189
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:42,720
Obviously, we haven't seen that in a while.

190
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:48,480
And I think we will continue to see more of a balanced market.

191
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:49,480
So that's good for buyers.

192
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:53,200
And of course, it's still good for sellers because, you know, there's been a lot of equity

193
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:54,200
built up.

194
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,800
So those are kind of my hot takes for 2025.

195
00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:02,200
What do you think is going to happen in this next year as far as the real estate market

196
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:03,200
goes?

197
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,040
I would love to hear about it.

198
00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:06,800
So drop a comment.

199
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,520
And again, like and subscribe if you find any value in this.

200
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:17,960
I appreciate you have a very happy new year and a joyous 2025 and looking forward to more

201
00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,160
and more on spotlight Vancouver, Washington.

202
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:30,480
Take care out there and I'll see you next time.