WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.080 Imagine $800 million just quietly moving through 00:00:05.080 --> 00:00:07.580 the stock market, like 15 minutes before the 00:00:07.580 --> 00:00:09.759 president hits send on a massive military threat. 00:00:09.880 --> 00:00:11.800 Yeah, which sounds like a movie plot, honestly. 00:00:12.039 --> 00:00:14.970 Right. But that is not a hypothetical. That actually 00:00:14.970 --> 00:00:18.050 happened this past weekend. So welcome to today's 00:00:18.050 --> 00:00:20.850 Deep Dive. Glad to be here. Today is Tuesday, 00:00:21.030 --> 00:00:26.030 March 24th, 2026, and we are unpacking this incredibly 00:00:26.030 --> 00:00:30.230 dense, just wild edition of the Electoral Vote 00:00:30.230 --> 00:00:32.210 political newsletter. It was a heavy one this 00:00:32.210 --> 00:00:34.890 week. It really was. And our mission today for 00:00:34.890 --> 00:00:37.829 you listening is simple. We are going to examine 00:00:37.829 --> 00:00:41.420 the massive, almost surreal gap between allowed 00:00:41.420 --> 00:00:44.380 political rhetoric and ground level reality. 00:00:44.579 --> 00:00:46.240 Exactly. The difference between what's said and 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:48.240 what actually happens. Yeah, because we're looking 00:00:48.240 --> 00:00:50.880 at the weekends, you know, all caps bluster versus 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:52.619 the Monday morning reality. We want to give you 00:00:52.619 --> 00:00:54.780 the actual mechanics of what is happening behind 00:00:54.780 --> 00:00:57.240 the headlines because the whiplash this weekend 00:00:57.240 --> 00:00:59.939 was just, I mean, it was unbelievable. It's a 00:00:59.939 --> 00:01:01.880 phenomenal case study and political whiplash 00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:05.680 for sure. But before we get into the mechanisms 00:01:05.680 --> 00:01:07.980 of these stories, we. do need to set a quick 00:01:07.980 --> 00:01:10.260 baseline about our source material today. Yes. 00:01:10.420 --> 00:01:13.459 Very important point. So the electoral vote newsletter 00:01:13.459 --> 00:01:17.019 contains some highly pointed, strong partisan 00:01:17.019 --> 00:01:19.400 viewpoints and criticisms. Right. Spanning the 00:01:19.400 --> 00:01:22.099 whole political spectrum, but definitely heavily 00:01:22.099 --> 00:01:24.480 focused on the current administration. Exactly. 00:01:24.680 --> 00:01:27.540 And our job here is not to endorse these views. 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:30.319 We aren't taking sides at all. We are simply 00:01:30.319 --> 00:01:33.319 acting as your guides, impartially unpacking 00:01:33.319 --> 00:01:35.280 the newsletter's reporting and the arguments 00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:38.129 they present. So you can fully grasp the political 00:01:38.129 --> 00:01:40.150 dynamics at play. Right. We are just analyzing 00:01:40.150 --> 00:01:42.209 the board exactly as they've laid it out. We're 00:01:42.209 --> 00:01:44.430 looking past the noise, you know, to understand 00:01:44.430 --> 00:01:46.650 the why and the how behind the actions. Yeah. 00:01:46.969 --> 00:01:49.209 And there is honestly no better place to start 00:01:49.209 --> 00:01:51.269 than the highest stakes story on that board. 00:01:51.790 --> 00:01:54.540 The Iranian standoff. Oh, wow. Yeah. So over 00:01:54.540 --> 00:01:56.560 the weekend, the president posted a threat on 00:01:56.560 --> 00:01:59.200 his social media platform typed entirely in all 00:01:59.200 --> 00:02:02.400 caps. Right. And the ultimatum was that if Iran 00:02:02.400 --> 00:02:05.120 didn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 00:02:05.120 --> 00:02:08.919 48 hours, the United States would, quote, obliterate 00:02:08.919 --> 00:02:11.199 their various power plants, starting with the 00:02:11.199 --> 00:02:13.539 biggest one first, which is an apocalyptic level 00:02:13.539 --> 00:02:16.080 threat completely. But when you look at the strategic 00:02:16.080 --> 00:02:18.699 mechanics, the source points out this threat 00:02:18.699 --> 00:02:21.300 was fundamentally flawed from the literal moment 00:02:21.300 --> 00:02:23.860 it was posted. Yeah, the newsletter highlights 00:02:23.860 --> 00:02:27.340 a massive reality check here because the underlying 00:02:27.340 --> 00:02:29.900 issue driving the entire standoff in the Strait 00:02:29.900 --> 00:02:33.219 of Hormuz is that global energy prices are just 00:02:33.219 --> 00:02:35.400 skyrocketing. Right. Gas prices are out of control. 00:02:35.460 --> 00:02:38.560 Exactly. So if you destroy a nation's energy 00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:41.280 infrastructure, you are pulling the fastest lever 00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:44.240 available to make that exact problem infinitely 00:02:44.240 --> 00:02:46.439 worse. You immediately shrink global supply. 00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:48.939 Yes. And you send the energy markets into an 00:02:48.939 --> 00:02:51.800 absolute panic. And furthermore, If the U .S. 00:02:52.060 --> 00:02:53.879 actually followed through and bombed Iranian 00:02:53.879 --> 00:02:56.639 power plants, Iranian military doctrine almost 00:02:56.639 --> 00:02:59.199 guarantees retaliation. Right, by striking the 00:02:59.199 --> 00:03:01.319 power plants of U .S. allies in the Middle East. 00:03:01.860 --> 00:03:04.719 Precisely. Which completely destabilizes the 00:03:04.719 --> 00:03:06.860 very energy markets the administration is, you 00:03:06.860 --> 00:03:09.560 know, ostensibly trying to protect. Which brings 00:03:09.560 --> 00:03:12.759 us to the Monday morning reality. So the 48 -hour 00:03:12.759 --> 00:03:16.199 deadline passes, the strait remains closed. No 00:03:16.199 --> 00:03:19.060 bombs are dropped. Nothing happens. Right. Instead, 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:21.699 we get what the newsletter dubs the TACO Act, 00:03:22.139 --> 00:03:25.199 essentially a sudden massive backtrack. The president 00:03:25.199 --> 00:03:28.159 posts another message announcing a five -day 00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:31.919 pause on military strikes, citing, quote, Very 00:03:31.919 --> 00:03:34.599 good and productive conversations. Yeah regarding 00:03:34.599 --> 00:03:36.960 a total resolution of hostilities and the Dow 00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:39.960 Jones instantly jumps over 600 points Naturally 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:42.620 the market loves that but here is where the mechanics 00:03:42.620 --> 00:03:45.060 get incredibly suspicious According to the source 00:03:45.060 --> 00:03:47.139 approximately 15 minutes before that backtrack 00:03:47.139 --> 00:03:50.060 announcement the volume in stock and oil futures 00:03:50.060 --> 00:03:52.360 completely spiked Yeah, eight hundred million 00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:55.319 dollars in investments suddenly shifted and you 00:03:55.319 --> 00:03:56.939 know to understand why that matters You have 00:03:56.939 --> 00:03:58.780 to look at how futures markets operate. It's 00:03:58.780 --> 00:04:01.879 basically a bet, right? Exactly. A futures contract 00:04:01.879 --> 00:04:04.400 is essentially a bet on where the price of an 00:04:04.400 --> 00:04:07.400 asset is going. So if you know a military strike 00:04:07.400 --> 00:04:10.479 is being called off you know the panic in the 00:04:10.479 --> 00:04:12.960 oil markets is about to subside. And the broader 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:15.300 stock market is going to rally. Right. So moving 00:04:15.300 --> 00:04:18.040 that much capital minutes before a public announcement 00:04:18.040 --> 00:04:22.480 is a massive glowing red flag for insider trading. 00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:25.519 It's the ultimate high stakes poker game. It's 00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:28.040 like it's like a player loudly declaring to the 00:04:28.040 --> 00:04:30.819 whole room that they are going all in. But another 00:04:30.819 --> 00:04:33.899 player at the table suddenly buys a massive pile 00:04:33.899 --> 00:04:36.540 of chips right before the cards are actually 00:04:36.540 --> 00:04:38.720 shown. That's a perfect analogy. If you're watching 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:40.779 that happen, you know someone saw the cards. 00:04:41.550 --> 00:04:43.149 The newsletter notes that the Trump -appointed 00:04:43.149 --> 00:04:46.649 SEC Commissioner Paul S. Atkins is going to face 00:04:46.649 --> 00:04:49.230 immense pressure to investigate this. Oh, absolutely. 00:04:49.449 --> 00:04:52.089 And if the federal regulators hesitate, the jurisdictional 00:04:52.089 --> 00:04:54.110 mechanics means state authorities might step 00:04:54.110 --> 00:04:56.569 in. Oh, really? How does that work? Well, because 00:04:56.569 --> 00:04:59.329 these financial exchanges are based in specific 00:04:59.329 --> 00:05:02.689 states, you could see New York Attorney General 00:05:02.689 --> 00:05:05.980 Letitia James... Or even Illinois Attorney General, 00:05:06.079 --> 00:05:08.639 Kwame Raoul, initiate their own probes. Because 00:05:08.639 --> 00:05:11.019 they have jurisdiction over the exchanges. Exactly. 00:05:11.139 --> 00:05:13.459 They have the authority to subpoena IP addresses, 00:05:14.100 --> 00:05:17.060 trading time stamps, communication records, all 00:05:17.060 --> 00:05:20.620 of it. Wow. So if the market seemingly knew the 00:05:20.620 --> 00:05:23.300 bluff before the public did, that leads to a 00:05:23.300 --> 00:05:26.279 massive question. Who exactly was on the other 00:05:26.279 --> 00:05:28.680 side of those productive conversations? Right. 00:05:28.889 --> 00:05:31.149 Who are we talking to? Because immediately after 00:05:31.149 --> 00:05:33.370 the White House announces these talks, the Iranian 00:05:33.370 --> 00:05:35.870 government publicly claims there are no negotiations 00:05:35.870 --> 00:05:38.230 happening at all. Zero talks. And then the White 00:05:38.230 --> 00:05:40.209 House pushes back, saying they are talking to, 00:05:40.209 --> 00:05:43.689 quote, the most respected leader. Yet the newsletter 00:05:43.689 --> 00:05:46.329 systematically dismantles that claim. It's not 00:05:46.329 --> 00:05:49.290 the new Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei. It doesn't 00:05:49.290 --> 00:05:51.170 appear to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard 00:05:51.170 --> 00:05:53.620 Corps. And it is certainly not the speaker of 00:05:53.620 --> 00:05:56.500 the Iranian parliament, Mohammed Bagher Galabaf, 00:05:56.759 --> 00:05:59.459 who explicitly went on record to deny any involvement. 00:05:59.920 --> 00:06:02.980 It's just bizarre. Gerard Baker, an editor at 00:06:02.980 --> 00:06:05.500 the Wall Street Journal, made a stunning observation 00:06:05.500 --> 00:06:08.000 about this dynamic that the source pulled. Oh, 00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:10.490 I saw that. Yeah, he wrote that Americans are 00:06:10.490 --> 00:06:13.050 currently in the unprecedented position of having 00:06:13.050 --> 00:06:16.589 to suspect that a hostile foreign adversary's 00:06:16.589 --> 00:06:19.069 version of events might actually be more accurate 00:06:19.069 --> 00:06:21.769 than their own governments. Which is a wild place 00:06:21.769 --> 00:06:25.819 to be. The source drops the Axios reporting, 00:06:26.259 --> 00:06:28.839 which leaks what the actual behind the scenes 00:06:28.839 --> 00:06:30.959 deal looks like. And it completely contradicts 00:06:30.959 --> 00:06:32.980 the weekend's threats, doesn't it? Completely. 00:06:33.379 --> 00:06:36.120 According to this leak, the proposed deal allows 00:06:36.120 --> 00:06:38.519 the current Iranian regime to stay in power. 00:06:39.120 --> 00:06:41.600 The U .S. would facilitate the payment of unfrozen 00:06:41.600 --> 00:06:43.800 funds. Which is essentially international banking 00:06:43.800 --> 00:06:46.120 money Iran couldn't previously touch. Right. 00:06:46.199 --> 00:06:48.500 Acting as a form of reparations, basically. Yeah. 00:06:48.500 --> 00:06:51.540 But most critically, Iran's nuclear program would 00:06:51.540 --> 00:06:53.680 essentially continue. Which leaves us with a 00:06:53.680 --> 00:06:57.040 profound strategic deficit. We might eventually 00:06:57.040 --> 00:06:59.980 get the Strait of Hormuz open, but the cost is 00:06:59.980 --> 00:07:02.459 a wealthier Iranian regime. Alienated Middle 00:07:02.459 --> 00:07:05.519 Eastern allies. Yeah, and the loss of 13 American 00:07:05.519 --> 00:07:08.639 soldiers dead and 232 wounded in the lead up. 00:07:08.959 --> 00:07:11.160 It's tragic. I have to push back on the logic 00:07:11.160 --> 00:07:14.519 here, though. If the deal is this objectively 00:07:14.519 --> 00:07:17.620 bad, like if it involves paying them off and 00:07:17.620 --> 00:07:20.420 letting them keep their nuclear ambitions, Why 00:07:20.420 --> 00:07:22.759 would the administration reportedly take it after 00:07:22.759 --> 00:07:25.519 threatening to blow up their power plants? That's 00:07:25.519 --> 00:07:27.959 the million -dollar question. What is the actual 00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:30.980 mechanism driving that pivot? Honestly, it comes 00:07:30.980 --> 00:07:33.639 down to the cynical reality of domestic politics 00:07:33.639 --> 00:07:36.360 and consumer wallets. You simply cannot have 00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:39.339 crude oil spiking to astronomical prices right 00:07:39.339 --> 00:07:41.879 before major election cycles. Right. High gas 00:07:41.879 --> 00:07:44.779 prices destroy incumbent administrations. Every 00:07:44.779 --> 00:07:47.500 single time. And the source also points to the 00:07:47.500 --> 00:07:50.060 recent U .S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as the 00:07:50.060 --> 00:07:52.240 governing historical context here. Oh, that makes 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:54.000 sense. Yeah, the U .S. spent 20 years trying 00:07:54.000 --> 00:07:56.269 to... up a non -theocratic puppet government 00:07:56.269 --> 00:07:58.670 there. And the moment the military left, the 00:07:58.670 --> 00:08:02.009 old regime took it back in a week. The underlying 00:08:02.009 --> 00:08:04.209 lesson is that imposing an artificial government 00:08:04.209 --> 00:08:07.050 from the outside requires committing to a forever 00:08:07.050 --> 00:08:10.230 war. Right. So the administration likely realized 00:08:10.230 --> 00:08:13.370 that a messy, expensive status quo is just politically 00:08:13.370 --> 00:08:16.230 safer than triggering a regional war that spikes 00:08:16.230 --> 00:08:19.029 inflation. Exactly. It's the lesser of two political 00:08:19.029 --> 00:08:21.449 evils for them. Well, that same collision between 00:08:21.449 --> 00:08:23.769 Saturday bluster and Monday reality isn't just 00:08:23.769 --> 00:08:25.670 an international phenomenon. It happened right 00:08:25.670 --> 00:08:27.790 here at home this weekend, too. Yeah, it really 00:08:27.790 --> 00:08:30.110 did. But instead of the stock market spiking, 00:08:30.290 --> 00:08:33.330 it was actual airplanes crashing. So let's look 00:08:33.330 --> 00:08:35.490 at the Department of Homeland Security funding 00:08:35.490 --> 00:08:38.070 standoff. The mechanics of this domestic standoff 00:08:38.070 --> 00:08:40.789 follow the exact same pattern we just discussed 00:08:40.789 --> 00:08:43.539 with Iran. So, over the weekend, the president 00:08:43.539 --> 00:08:45.840 demanded that a piece of legislation called the 00:08:45.840 --> 00:08:49.179 Save America Act be attached to Homeland Security 00:08:49.179 --> 00:08:51.820 funding. And this is a highly ideological bill. 00:08:52.019 --> 00:08:55.000 Highly ideological. It includes strict voter 00:08:55.000 --> 00:08:57.899 ID mandates, a requirement for all paper ballots, 00:08:58.139 --> 00:09:00.480 and bans on transgender athletes and women's 00:09:00.480 --> 00:09:03.139 sports. The president posted that he would absolutely 00:09:03.139 --> 00:09:06.159 not sign any DHS funding without these riders 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:09.559 effectively killing a bipartisan funding compromise. 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:13.399 When you freeze DHS funding, you aren't just 00:09:13.399 --> 00:09:15.820 pausing bureaucratic paperwork in an office somewhere. 00:09:15.840 --> 00:09:18.220 No, not at all. You're directly impacting the 00:09:18.220 --> 00:09:20.440 personnel who manage our critical infrastructure, 00:09:21.139 --> 00:09:25.200 the TSA, ICE, and crucially... air traffic controllers. 00:09:25.500 --> 00:09:27.399 Right. Put yourself in the shoes of an air traffic 00:09:27.399 --> 00:09:29.519 controller at LaGuardia Airport on a Monday morning. 00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:32.500 You aren't thinking about the ideological writers 00:09:32.500 --> 00:09:34.700 of the SAVE Act. You're just trying to do your 00:09:34.700 --> 00:09:37.379 job. Exactly. You are running on zero sleep, 00:09:37.700 --> 00:09:40.240 working under immense stress, trying to keep 00:09:40.240 --> 00:09:42.840 metal tubes from hitting each other because your 00:09:42.840 --> 00:09:45.620 department's funding is frozen and staffing is 00:09:45.620 --> 00:09:48.059 stretched to the absolute breaking point. And 00:09:48.059 --> 00:09:50.779 early Monday morning, the system broke. It did. 00:09:51.019 --> 00:09:53.299 An Air Canada plane collided with a fire truck 00:09:53.299 --> 00:09:56.100 on the tarmac. Both pilots were killed. It's 00:09:56.100 --> 00:09:58.980 awful. And the newsletter consulted with a military 00:09:58.980 --> 00:10:01.720 and civilian aviation expert who attributed this 00:10:01.720 --> 00:10:04.799 tragedy directly to the overworked, understaffed 00:10:04.799 --> 00:10:07.539 conditions caused by the DHS funding mess. It 00:10:07.539 --> 00:10:10.740 forces a sudden tragic realization. Political 00:10:10.740 --> 00:10:14.039 gamesmanship just hit harsh physical reality. 00:10:14.139 --> 00:10:16.740 Yeah, real lives were lost. A funding standoff 00:10:16.740 --> 00:10:19.460 was no longer just about like long TSA lines. 00:10:19.940 --> 00:10:23.299 It became a fatal public safety crisis. And the 00:10:23.299 --> 00:10:26.139 political calculus immediately flipped. It is 00:10:26.139 --> 00:10:28.519 exactly like a game of chicken where one driver 00:10:28.519 --> 00:10:31.220 suddenly realizes the bridge is actually out. 00:10:31.379 --> 00:10:33.559 Oh, that's exactly it. You can demand all the 00:10:33.559 --> 00:10:35.840 ideological writers you want on a Saturday, but 00:10:35.840 --> 00:10:38.039 when planes are literally crashing on Monday 00:10:38.039 --> 00:10:40.860 because of understaffed airports, gravity wins. 00:10:41.039 --> 00:10:43.539 Gravity always wins. So following the crash and 00:10:43.539 --> 00:10:47.000 the Senate's 54 to 45 vote to confirm Markwayne 00:10:47.000 --> 00:10:50.139 Mullen to head DHS, the president's stance completely 00:10:50.139 --> 00:10:53.220 reversed. Shocker. Right. Reports indicated he 00:10:53.220 --> 00:10:55.519 was suddenly open to a compromise to open the 00:10:55.519 --> 00:10:58.460 TSA using Democratic votes, hoping to pass his 00:10:58.460 --> 00:11:01.100 SaveE Act demands later through a process called 00:11:01.100 --> 00:11:03.940 budget reconciliation. But here is the legislative 00:11:03.940 --> 00:11:06.120 reality check that makes the initial weekend 00:11:06.120 --> 00:11:08.919 demand even more baffling. Passing those demands 00:11:08.919 --> 00:11:11.139 through reconciliation is essentially impossible. 00:11:11.259 --> 00:11:13.259 Because of the bird rule, right? Yes, exactly. 00:11:13.440 --> 00:11:15.679 Because reconciliation is basically a legislative 00:11:15.679 --> 00:11:18.159 cheat code to bypass the 60 vote filibuster, 00:11:18.480 --> 00:11:21.970 but the catch is the bird rule. Right. Every 00:11:21.970 --> 00:11:25.570 single line item in that bill must be strictly 00:11:25.570 --> 00:11:28.570 about dollars and cents revenues and outlays. 00:11:28.710 --> 00:11:31.490 You cannot sneak social policy into a math equation. 00:11:32.049 --> 00:11:35.250 Precisely. The Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth 00:11:35.250 --> 00:11:38.149 McDonough, acts as the procedural bouncer here. 00:11:38.269 --> 00:11:40.590 I love that procedural bouncer. Yeah, and she 00:11:40.590 --> 00:11:43.909 is highly unlikely to allow provisions about 00:11:43.909 --> 00:11:46.909 transgender athletes or paper ballot mandates 00:11:46.909 --> 00:11:49.269 into a reconciliation bill because they just 00:11:49.269 --> 00:11:52.110 are not strictly budgetary. So the administration 00:11:52.110 --> 00:11:54.769 was making a fatal weekend standoff over legislative 00:11:54.769 --> 00:11:56.789 demands that the procedural mechanics of the 00:11:56.789 --> 00:11:59.309 Senate would never allow to pass anyway. Exactly. 00:11:59.429 --> 00:12:01.450 It's all theater until real people get hurt. 00:12:01.559 --> 00:12:03.940 And this disconnect between what sounds good 00:12:03.940 --> 00:12:06.480 on a Saturday and what is legally or practically 00:12:06.480 --> 00:12:09.539 possible on a Monday, it's bleeding into our 00:12:09.539 --> 00:12:12.440 basic civic norms. It really is. The source provides 00:12:12.440 --> 00:12:14.899 this rapid -fire series of vignettes that show 00:12:14.899 --> 00:12:16.919 how this degradation of authority is playing 00:12:16.919 --> 00:12:19.600 out in real time. Right. It illustrates how the 00:12:19.600 --> 00:12:21.539 blurring of lines isn't contained to just foreign 00:12:21.539 --> 00:12:24.679 policy or funding bills. It's eroding basic institutional 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:27.409 trust. Take the executive order the president 00:12:27.409 --> 00:12:30.029 issued trying to ban other sports leagues from 00:12:30.029 --> 00:12:32.370 broadcasting their games during the Army Navy 00:12:32.370 --> 00:12:35.529 College football game. Oh yeah, that was wild. 00:12:35.789 --> 00:12:38.789 The cited reason was, quote, military necessity. 00:12:39.889 --> 00:12:42.570 But an executive order directs federal agencies. 00:12:42.850 --> 00:12:45.690 It cannot dictate television schedules to private 00:12:45.690 --> 00:12:49.190 entities like CBS or ESPN. It's entirely performative. 00:12:49.230 --> 00:12:52.409 Totally. Then you have the NBA champion Oklahoma 00:12:52.409 --> 00:12:55.470 City Thunder skipping their customary White House 00:12:55.470 --> 00:12:58.409 visit, citing a, quote, timing issue. Right. 00:12:58.509 --> 00:13:00.470 And the newsletter notes this continues a distinct 00:13:00.470 --> 00:13:02.990 pattern. Teams frequently skipped under Trump, 00:13:03.429 --> 00:13:06.090 resumed visiting under Biden, and are now skipping 00:13:06.090 --> 00:13:08.950 again. Add to that the president's highly aggressive 00:13:08.950 --> 00:13:11.730 tweet celebrating the death of former FBI director 00:13:11.730 --> 00:13:15.090 Robert Wheeler. He stated, quote, Good, I'm glad 00:13:15.090 --> 00:13:17.370 he's dead. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas 00:13:17.370 --> 00:13:19.610 actually addressed this broader atmosphere in 00:13:19.610 --> 00:13:21.250 a recent interview that the source highlighted. 00:13:21.389 --> 00:13:24.250 Oh, what'd he say? He lamented a 34 -year decline 00:13:24.250 --> 00:13:26.730 in institutional trust. He warned that we're 00:13:26.730 --> 00:13:28.990 in danger of destroying the very institutions 00:13:28.990 --> 00:13:31.929 required to maintain a free society. Because 00:13:31.929 --> 00:13:34.750 when the executive branch issues legally fictional 00:13:34.750 --> 00:13:37.929 orders and publicly degrades deceased officials, 00:13:38.529 --> 00:13:40.840 that trust just evaporates. And we're seeing 00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:42.700 this behavior from the legislative branch as 00:13:42.700 --> 00:13:45.700 well. The newsletter points to Texas Senator 00:13:45.700 --> 00:13:48.000 Ted Cruz. Yeah, this was an interesting one. 00:13:48.100 --> 00:13:50.539 So Cruz, who is an evangelical Protestant, was 00:13:50.539 --> 00:13:52.860 spreading a bizarre conspiracy theory online 00:13:52.860 --> 00:13:56.360 linking to a screed that claimed a secret Catholic 00:13:56.360 --> 00:13:59.720 cabal is trying to replace America's Protestants 00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:01.960 with Catholics. It is essentially a religious 00:14:01.960 --> 00:14:03.980 variation of replacement theory. But I have to 00:14:03.980 --> 00:14:06.500 ask you about the electoral math here. Texas 00:14:06.500 --> 00:14:09.919 is roughly 40 % Hispanic, which leans heavily 00:14:09.919 --> 00:14:12.740 Catholic. Right. So if a Texas senator is pushing 00:14:12.740 --> 00:14:15.240 19th century anti -Catholic conspiracy theories, 00:14:15.779 --> 00:14:17.580 how does that possibly play out for him when 00:14:17.580 --> 00:14:19.620 he needs to run for reelection in a general election? 00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:22.100 Well, the mechanism driving that behavior is 00:14:22.100 --> 00:14:24.440 the modern primary election system versus the 00:14:24.440 --> 00:14:25.960 general election survival. What do you mean? 00:14:26.190 --> 00:14:29.169 Politicians pushing internet conspiracies are 00:14:29.169 --> 00:14:32.669 utilizing a high yield strategy to raise small 00:14:32.669 --> 00:14:36.490 dollar donations from a very online, highly engaged, 00:14:36.929 --> 00:14:39.990 and often extreme base. Oh, so it's a cash grab. 00:14:40.190 --> 00:14:43.250 Exactly. In the short term, during a primary, 00:14:44.070 --> 00:14:47.029 ideological purity and outrage generate the funds 00:14:47.029 --> 00:14:50.149 needed to survive. Right. The disconnect is that 00:14:50.149 --> 00:14:54.159 the very rhetoric that wins a primary often mathematically 00:14:54.159 --> 00:14:57.100 dooms them with the moderate median voters they 00:14:57.100 --> 00:14:59.779 desperately need in a general election. They 00:14:59.779 --> 00:15:02.799 are trading long -term institutional and electoral 00:15:02.799 --> 00:15:05.840 health for short -term internet posturing. Exactly. 00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:08.100 So when the volume is turned up this high, when 00:15:08.100 --> 00:15:10.879 the norms are breaking down and the weekend ultimatums 00:15:10.879 --> 00:15:14.100 keep vanishing by Monday, how do voters actually 00:15:14.100 --> 00:15:16.460 process it? That's a great question. The source 00:15:16.460 --> 00:15:19.700 dives into the data using a metric called Q scores. 00:15:19.960 --> 00:15:22.080 And I find this fascinating because it completely 00:15:22.090 --> 00:15:23.950 strips out the noise. Right. It's a very different 00:15:23.950 --> 00:15:25.909 way to look at polling. Because when you look 00:15:25.909 --> 00:15:28.470 at a standard approval rating, a politician might 00:15:28.470 --> 00:15:31.169 sit at 40 percent, but that number is heavily 00:15:31.169 --> 00:15:34.370 skewed if 20 percent of the respondents simply 00:15:34.370 --> 00:15:37.070 say, you know, no opinion. A Q score removes 00:15:37.070 --> 00:15:40.049 the no opinion group entirely. It measures approval 00:15:40.049 --> 00:15:41.929 strictly among the people who actually know who 00:15:41.929 --> 00:15:44.629 you are and have formed a solid opinion. How 00:15:44.629 --> 00:15:46.470 does that alter our understanding of the political 00:15:46.470 --> 00:15:49.389 landscape? Well, it acts as a much purer metric 00:15:49.389 --> 00:15:52.269 of how well a political brand is actually landing 00:15:52.269 --> 00:15:54.929 with the engaged public. Okay. When you force 00:15:54.929 --> 00:15:57.870 the data to only look at people paying attention, 00:15:58.389 --> 00:16:01.529 the narrative shifts dramatically. The disparities 00:16:01.529 --> 00:16:04.379 in the newsletter's data are incredible. Barack 00:16:04.379 --> 00:16:06.940 Obama remains the most popular political figure 00:16:06.940 --> 00:16:10.960 on this list, boasting a Q score of 58 .5. Still 00:16:10.960 --> 00:16:13.519 very high. Right. And sitting at the absolute 00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:16.500 bottom, dead last, is Trump adviser Stephen Miller 00:16:16.500 --> 00:16:20.299 at 32 .1. But what really stands out is the performance 00:16:20.299 --> 00:16:22.480 of moderate Democrats. Yeah, this was the most 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:24.279 surprising part to me. Because we constantly 00:16:24.279 --> 00:16:26.740 hear media narratives about a struggling Democratic 00:16:26.740 --> 00:16:29.860 brand. But when you isolate the Q scores, politicians 00:16:29.860 --> 00:16:32.320 like Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania 00:16:32.320 --> 00:16:34.740 Governor Josh Shapiro Shapiro are thriving. Do 00:16:34.740 --> 00:16:37.919 incredibly well. Beshear is at 57 .7 and Shapiro 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:41.320 is at 56 .9. These are remarkably high figures. 00:16:41.820 --> 00:16:44.179 And consider the mechanism of why their numbers 00:16:44.179 --> 00:16:47.360 are so high. Governors like Beshear and Shapiro 00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:50.340 are not driving the daily outrage cycle. No, 00:16:50.419 --> 00:16:53.480 you rarely see them screaming on TV. Right. They 00:16:53.480 --> 00:16:56.600 naturally have no opinion metrics nationally 00:16:56.600 --> 00:16:58.840 because they aren't on television every night 00:16:58.840 --> 00:17:01.440 talking about conspiracies. But among the voters 00:17:01.440 --> 00:17:03.919 who do know them, they are deeply liked. Because 00:17:03.919 --> 00:17:07.200 they represent quiet, pragmatic governance focused 00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:10.700 on tangible local results. Exactly. Contrast 00:17:10.700 --> 00:17:13.299 that with the Magier brand, which absolutely 00:17:13.299 --> 00:17:16.279 dominates the daily headlines. According to the 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:19.960 source, 12 of the bottom 13 spots on this Q score 00:17:19.960 --> 00:17:22.619 list are occupied by figures associated with 00:17:22.619 --> 00:17:25.480 the Magier movement. Vice President JD Vance 00:17:25.480 --> 00:17:29.259 is tied with Ted Cruz at 43 .8. Tucker Carlson 00:17:29.259 --> 00:17:32.079 is deeply unpopular across the board. This illustrates 00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:34.440 the massive difference between fame and popularity. 00:17:34.539 --> 00:17:36.740 Oh, that's a good way to put it. Loud attention 00:17:36.740 --> 00:17:38.940 grabbing politics, whether it's the MadGA movement 00:17:38.940 --> 00:17:41.980 or even RFK Jr.'s chaotic third party coalition, 00:17:42.339 --> 00:17:44.740 it guarantees high name recognition. Everyone 00:17:44.740 --> 00:17:46.660 knows who you are, so everyone has an opinion. 00:17:46.839 --> 00:17:49.759 But that omnipresence does not translate to actual 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:52.740 popularity. In fact, the data shows that constantly 00:17:52.740 --> 00:17:55.819 being at the center of the noise heavily alienates 00:17:55.819 --> 00:17:58.500 the median voter. The newsletter points to Georgia 00:17:58.500 --> 00:18:01.119 as the perfect real -world application of this 00:18:01.119 --> 00:18:04.220 data. Democratic Senator John Ossoff is running 00:18:04.220 --> 00:18:07.579 a highly disciplined, hyperlocal campaign there. 00:18:08.059 --> 00:18:11.490 Very quiet campaign. Extremely. He is actively 00:18:11.490 --> 00:18:13.750 distancing himself from the loud national party 00:18:13.750 --> 00:18:16.450 drama and focusing purely on Georgia issues. 00:18:16.849 --> 00:18:19.410 And it is working so effectively that the source 00:18:19.410 --> 00:18:21.970 suggests Republicans might abandon trying to 00:18:21.970 --> 00:18:24.549 flip his seat entirely. Right. Choosing instead 00:18:24.549 --> 00:18:27.049 to focus their resources on defending their own 00:18:27.049 --> 00:18:29.369 narrow majority elsewhere. It proves that when 00:18:29.369 --> 00:18:31.589 the political environment is defined by endless 00:18:31.589 --> 00:18:33.910 whiplash, the politicians who put their heads 00:18:33.910 --> 00:18:36.609 down ignore the national circus and focus on 00:18:36.609 --> 00:18:38.450 local governance are the ones quietly winning. 00:18:38.440 --> 00:18:41.099 over the public. Completely agree Well, as we 00:18:41.099 --> 00:18:43.460 wrap up today's deep dive, the core takeaway 00:18:43.460 --> 00:18:46.240 for you listening is all about tuning your radar. 00:18:46.759 --> 00:18:48.819 Being truly well -informed means learning to 00:18:48.819 --> 00:18:51.960 look past the weekend all -caps posts and focusing 00:18:51.960 --> 00:18:54.519 on the Monday morning mechanics. The threats 00:18:54.519 --> 00:18:57.000 might be incredibly loud, but gravity always 00:18:57.000 --> 00:19:00.099 wins. Whether you are watching $800 million in 00:19:00.099 --> 00:19:02.279 financial markets spike before a foreign policy 00:19:02.279 --> 00:19:04.779 backtrack, or understanding how the Byrd Rule 00:19:04.779 --> 00:19:07.640 blocks ideological legislative demands, or seeing 00:19:07.640 --> 00:19:10.380 how quiet pragmatism consistently performs loud 00:19:10.380 --> 00:19:13.759 outrage in the polling data. The truth is always 00:19:13.759 --> 00:19:17.400 found in the actions, not the volume. Well said. 00:19:17.799 --> 00:19:20.359 And that leaves us with a final lingering puzzle 00:19:20.359 --> 00:19:23.220 to chew on regarding those Q scores. Oh, right. 00:19:23.559 --> 00:19:25.779 We discussed how Q scores remove the no -opinion 00:19:25.779 --> 00:19:28.119 voters. But I want you to think about those specific 00:19:28.119 --> 00:19:30.859 people for a second. Who are the respondents 00:19:30.859 --> 00:19:34.160 who, in the year 2026, still look at a pollster 00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:36.579 and say they have no opinion on Donald Trump, 00:19:36.859 --> 00:19:38.640 Barack Obama, or Bernie Sanders? Yeah, how is 00:19:38.640 --> 00:19:40.660 that even possible? Right. What does it take 00:19:40.660 --> 00:19:42.859 for a citizen to completely tune out a decade 00:19:42.859 --> 00:19:45.680 of the loudest, most invasive political era in 00:19:45.680 --> 00:19:48.799 modern history? Are these people the ultimate 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:51.759 untouchable swing voters who will quietly decide 00:19:51.759 --> 00:19:54.160 the next election, or have they just entirely, 00:19:54.160 --> 00:19:56.220 permanently opted out of the American system? 00:19:56.440 --> 00:19:59.619 That is a fascinating question to end on. Because, 00:19:59.640 --> 00:20:01.660 you know, when the volume knob has been broken 00:20:01.660 --> 00:20:04.940 off at 11 for a decade, maybe the only rebellion 00:20:04.940 --> 00:20:07.119 left is just putting on noise -canceling headphones. 00:20:07.480 --> 00:20:10.420 Honestly, yeah. Well, thank you so much for joining 00:20:10.420 --> 00:20:13.099 us on this deep dive. Keep questioning the headlines, 00:20:13.440 --> 00:20:15.240 look for the mechanics behind the noise, and 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:16.140 we will see you next time.