WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.799 So what do a looming global fertilizer shortage, 00:00:05.660 --> 00:00:09.019 a massive surge of young women betting on reality 00:00:09.019 --> 00:00:11.919 television, and a plumber suddenly being handed 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:13.839 the keys to the Department of Homeland Security 00:00:13.839 --> 00:00:16.100 all have in common? I mean, it sounds like the 00:00:16.100 --> 00:00:19.320 setup to a really bizarre joke. Right. But they 00:00:19.320 --> 00:00:22.800 are actually all symptoms of a world that has 00:00:22.800 --> 00:00:25.640 just completely abandoned the traditional playbook. 00:00:26.270 --> 00:00:28.730 Welcome to the deep dive. We are super thrilled 00:00:28.730 --> 00:00:30.730 to have you with us today. Yeah, it's great to 00:00:30.730 --> 00:00:33.130 be here because normally when you look at how 00:00:33.130 --> 00:00:35.590 the world operates, the global diplomacy or the 00:00:35.590 --> 00:00:38.689 economy exactly, or even just planning your own 00:00:38.689 --> 00:00:41.250 retirement, there's this expectation of a system, 00:00:41.250 --> 00:00:43.590 right? You follow the rules, you manage your 00:00:43.590 --> 00:00:46.329 downside and things just kind of hum along. But 00:00:46.329 --> 00:00:48.630 the stack of sources we've got today, it reveals 00:00:48.630 --> 00:00:51.609 a landscape where everyone from global presidents 00:00:51.609 --> 00:00:54.429 to, you know, 20 somethings is just tossing that 00:00:54.429 --> 00:00:56.119 rule book out the window. Yeah, they're making 00:00:56.119 --> 00:00:58.659 these massive high stakes bets. And our mission 00:00:58.659 --> 00:01:01.640 today is to connect those seemingly unrelated 00:01:01.640 --> 00:01:04.719 dots for you. We're going to explore how these 00:01:04.719 --> 00:01:06.859 top -down geopolitical gambles in the Middle 00:01:06.859 --> 00:01:09.980 East are directly colliding with a stagflationary 00:01:09.980 --> 00:01:12.260 economy right here at home. And then, you know, 00:01:12.260 --> 00:01:14.379 we'll look at why younger generations are responding 00:01:14.379 --> 00:01:16.480 to all this chaos by just pouring their money 00:01:16.480 --> 00:01:19.760 into high -risk crypto and prediction markets. 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:21.939 Totally. We're pulling from a really diverse 00:01:21.939 --> 00:01:24.280 stack of materials today. We've got political 00:01:24.280 --> 00:01:27.079 analysis from electoral vote news, some really 00:01:27.079 --> 00:01:30.540 hard macroeconomic data from Hedgeye, and a pretty 00:01:30.540 --> 00:01:32.879 revealing demographic report. from Northwestern 00:01:32.879 --> 00:01:37.260 Mutual on how different generations are viewing 00:01:37.260 --> 00:01:39.819 risk right now. It is a really potent, and honestly 00:01:39.819 --> 00:01:42.260 at times, a highly critical mix of sources today. 00:01:42.500 --> 00:01:44.280 It really is. And actually, before we go a single 00:01:44.280 --> 00:01:46.040 step further, I need to make something explicitly 00:01:46.040 --> 00:01:48.879 clear to you, the listener. The sources we are 00:01:48.879 --> 00:01:52.060 diving into today contain very strong, highly 00:01:52.060 --> 00:01:54.659 charged political, economic, and foreign policy 00:01:54.659 --> 00:01:56.719 opinions. Yeah, they really do. From all sides 00:01:56.719 --> 00:01:59.280 of the aisle. Right. They take aim at figures 00:01:59.280 --> 00:02:01.760 like Donald Trump, Ken Paxton, John Fetterman, 00:02:01.939 --> 00:02:06.799 JD Vance, basically everybody. So our job today 00:02:06.799 --> 00:02:10.520 is strictly and impartially to report the viewpoints 00:02:10.520 --> 00:02:12.639 contained in this source material. Absolutely. 00:02:12.840 --> 00:02:15.139 We are acting entirely as your neutral guides 00:02:15.139 --> 00:02:17.419 here just to unpack what these authors are arguing. 00:02:17.500 --> 00:02:20.560 We are not endorsing, validating, or taking sides 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:23.000 on any of the political, economic, or foreign 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:25.800 policy views presented. Exactly. Just the messengers 00:02:25.800 --> 00:02:28.180 today. So let's start at the top of the global 00:02:28.180 --> 00:02:30.960 board. The source material paints this picture. 00:02:31.229 --> 00:02:33.590 of political leadership that is currently operating 00:02:33.590 --> 00:02:36.789 entirely on, like, unpredictable gut instincts 00:02:36.789 --> 00:02:39.430 rather than established strategy. Yeah. And the 00:02:39.430 --> 00:02:41.590 prime example the authors use for this is the 00:02:41.590 --> 00:02:43.870 US administration's current approach to Iran. 00:02:44.389 --> 00:02:46.050 According to the analysts at Electoral Vote, 00:02:46.250 --> 00:02:48.389 the administration went into this expecting basically 00:02:48.389 --> 00:02:50.509 a one -day affair resulting in an unconditional 00:02:50.509 --> 00:02:52.849 surrender. Which is, I mean, the author of that 00:02:52.849 --> 00:02:55.520 piece... rather caustically notes the flaw in 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:57.939 that logic, right? Oh, definitely. They joke 00:02:57.939 --> 00:03:00.680 that the US strategy seemed to rely on bombing 00:03:00.680 --> 00:03:03.979 Iran back to the seventh century, only to discover 00:03:03.979 --> 00:03:06.620 that the current regime, quote, likes the seventh 00:03:06.620 --> 00:03:09.800 century. Wow. OK, yeah. Yeah. The analytical 00:03:09.800 --> 00:03:12.219 point they're making is that historical precedent, 00:03:12.280 --> 00:03:14.800 whether you look at Vietnam or Afghanistan, it 00:03:14.800 --> 00:03:17.979 shows that aerial bombing campaigns rarely, if 00:03:17.979 --> 00:03:20.719 ever, result in immediate regime change. It's 00:03:20.719 --> 00:03:23.620 just a massive gamble. And the source specifically 00:03:23.620 --> 00:03:26.340 highlights how this gamble was made too. They 00:03:26.340 --> 00:03:28.900 know that Donald Trump entirely bypassed the 00:03:28.900 --> 00:03:31.680 traditional chain of command. Like, he reportedly 00:03:31.680 --> 00:03:34.580 ignored the direct warnings of a four -star general, 00:03:34.759 --> 00:03:37.280 Dan Cain. Right. And General Cain has extensive 00:03:37.280 --> 00:03:39.639 ground -level experience fighting in Iraq and 00:03:39.639 --> 00:03:42.080 Syria, but the administration just preferred 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:44.120 to trust its own instincts over the military 00:03:44.120 --> 00:03:46.560 brass. OK, let's unpack this. Because treating 00:03:46.560 --> 00:03:48.560 international conflict like a quick real estate 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:51.240 deal is like trying to fix a complex, leaky pipe 00:03:51.240 --> 00:03:53.360 by just, you know, turning up the water pressure. 00:03:53.639 --> 00:03:55.340 You might clear a blockage in the living room. 00:03:55.240 --> 00:03:57.099 But because all these pipes are connected the 00:03:57.099 --> 00:03:59.080 pressure just blows out the punting in the kitchen. 00:03:59.340 --> 00:04:01.139 That's a great way to look at it. And in this 00:04:01.139 --> 00:04:03.539 case the kitchen is the global supply chain. 00:04:03.930 --> 00:04:07.169 What's fascinating here is the economic butterfly 00:04:07.169 --> 00:04:09.629 effect of ignoring that institutional knowledge. 00:04:10.189 --> 00:04:12.770 The source points out this potentially catastrophic 00:04:12.770 --> 00:04:15.370 blind spot, the Strait of Hormuz. Right, because 00:04:15.370 --> 00:04:17.230 the administration apparently toyed with the 00:04:17.230 --> 00:04:19.209 idea that the U .S. could just leave the region 00:04:19.209 --> 00:04:21.990 entirely if things got too hot, since we don't 00:04:21.990 --> 00:04:23.889 import our oil from there anymore. But that's 00:04:23.889 --> 00:04:26.050 exactly the oversight, according to the source. 00:04:26.509 --> 00:04:28.610 While the U .S. doesn't import oil from there, 00:04:28.730 --> 00:04:31.730 we import a massive amount of fertilizer. And 00:04:31.730 --> 00:04:35.250 in agriculture, timing is quite literally everything. 00:04:35.449 --> 00:04:37.750 Because farmers, they need to put seeds in the 00:04:37.750 --> 00:04:40.149 ground right now. Precisely. If the Strait of 00:04:40.149 --> 00:04:42.850 Hormuz gets closed due to this escalating conflict, 00:04:43.410 --> 00:04:45.930 it creates a severe fertilizer shortage in April, 00:04:46.050 --> 00:04:48.649 right when farmers are planting. The source traces 00:04:48.649 --> 00:04:51.689 a direct line from that to a massive unavoidable 00:04:51.689 --> 00:04:54.850 spike in food prices by October. You just can't 00:04:54.850 --> 00:04:57.490 delay planting a crop. And all of this is getting 00:04:57.490 --> 00:04:59.930 further complicated by leadership changes inside 00:04:59.930 --> 00:05:03.389 Iran, right? The text notes a new hardliner named 00:05:03.389 --> 00:05:06.329 Mojtaba Khamenei is taking over. Yeah, and he 00:05:06.329 --> 00:05:09.970 is reportedly very angry, which makes any diplomatic 00:05:09.970 --> 00:05:13.069 off -ramp even more volatile. But wait, the sources 00:05:13.069 --> 00:05:15.449 note that bombing rarely leads to regime change. 00:05:15.889 --> 00:05:18.269 But what happens if the U .S. just leaves entirely? 00:05:19.029 --> 00:05:22.189 Like, the sources mention Taiwan. How does depleting 00:05:22.189 --> 00:05:24.889 our munitions in Iran affect the broader global 00:05:24.889 --> 00:05:27.560 board? Well, the source argues that's the ultimate 00:05:27.560 --> 00:05:30.120 hidden cost of the gamble. By burning through 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:32.240 America's stockpile of advanced munitions in 00:05:32.240 --> 00:05:35.060 the Middle East, the US leaves itself incredibly 00:05:35.060 --> 00:05:38.040 vulnerable if a completely different geopolitical 00:05:38.040 --> 00:05:40.220 crisis kicks off. Oh, I see. Like with China. 00:05:40.360 --> 00:05:42.980 Exactly. They specifically point to the risk 00:05:42.980 --> 00:05:45.660 of China looking at a depleted US military and 00:05:45.660 --> 00:05:48.300 deciding, hey, this is the perfect window for 00:05:48.300 --> 00:05:51.000 reunification with Taiwan. It's this whole domino 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:53.259 effect of systemic risk. And when leadership 00:05:53.259 --> 00:05:55.620 gets comfortable, you know, ignoring the rules 00:05:55.620 --> 00:05:58.620 to roll the dice overseas, that erratic freestyle 00:05:58.620 --> 00:06:01.019 mentality inevitably bleeds into domestic policy, 00:06:01.259 --> 00:06:03.560 too. The sources highlight some major gambles 00:06:03.560 --> 00:06:06.040 happening right here at home. They do. The material 00:06:06.040 --> 00:06:08.079 pivots to the Department of Homeland Security, 00:06:08.360 --> 00:06:10.680 pointing out that the agency has been completely 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:14.660 unfunded for 41 days. TSA workers are missing 00:06:14.660 --> 00:06:18.160 their second consecutive payday. Which, I mean, 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:20.279 understandably leads to people calling out sick 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:22.199 because they literally can't afford the commute. 00:06:22.680 --> 00:06:26.060 But wait, so the DHS is unsunded and TSA workers 00:06:26.060 --> 00:06:28.939 are staying home. Who is actually checking bags 00:06:28.939 --> 00:06:31.540 at the airports right now? So, according to the 00:06:31.540 --> 00:06:34.139 source, the administration's proposed fix is 00:06:34.139 --> 00:06:37.079 to take IC agents, immigration, and customs enforcement 00:06:37.079 --> 00:06:39.759 and send them to the airports to take over security 00:06:39.759 --> 00:06:42.139 screening. Are you kidding? Nope. But the authors 00:06:42.139 --> 00:06:44.300 highlight a glaring mechanical problem with this. 00:06:44.660 --> 00:06:47.180 Looking at an x -ray monitor to spot explosive 00:06:47.180 --> 00:06:49.879 materials or weapon components, that takes months 00:06:49.879 --> 00:06:52.120 of highly specialized training. So these agents 00:06:52.120 --> 00:06:55.259 are essentially being forced to just guess. to 00:06:55.259 --> 00:06:57.399 freestyle a federal security check. Essentially, 00:06:57.620 --> 00:07:00.279 yes. And it's a move that is drawing intense 00:07:00.279 --> 00:07:02.980 fire from across the entire political spectrum 00:07:02.980 --> 00:07:05.959 in the source material. You have Democratic leaders 00:07:05.959 --> 00:07:08.800 like Chuck Schumer calling it asking for trouble 00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:12.500 and Hakeem Jeffries warning of potential brutality 00:07:12.500 --> 00:07:14.839 given the agents different training backgrounds. 00:07:15.060 --> 00:07:17.139 And it's not just Democrats, right? Yeah. The 00:07:17.139 --> 00:07:19.660 authors quote Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski 00:07:19.660 --> 00:07:22.610 too. Right. She explicitly stated she is, quote, 00:07:22.949 --> 00:07:25.629 not a fan of the maneuver. It's a high risk patch 00:07:25.629 --> 00:07:28.209 for a systemic failure. And we see this same 00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:30.410 bypass of standard procedure at the southern 00:07:30.410 --> 00:07:33.850 border, too. The source notes that wall construction 00:07:33.850 --> 00:07:37.529 is back on, funded by a $47 billion appropriation 00:07:37.529 --> 00:07:39.750 in the BBB, and they're building about three 00:07:39.750 --> 00:07:42.500 miles a week. Yeah, but to hit that speed, they're 00:07:42.500 --> 00:07:45.019 entirely bypassing established environmental 00:07:45.019 --> 00:07:47.060 regulations. And the environmental mechanics 00:07:47.060 --> 00:07:49.620 detailed in the text are just staggering. Because 00:07:49.620 --> 00:07:52.319 they bypass the reviews, they're pumping a million 00:07:52.319 --> 00:07:55.160 gallons of scarce groundwater a day just to mix 00:07:55.160 --> 00:07:57.379 concrete for a construction project near Tucson. 00:07:57.860 --> 00:08:01.540 Wow. A million gallons a day. In a desert environment, 00:08:01.680 --> 00:08:04.259 you are permanently depleting aquifers that took 00:08:04.259 --> 00:08:07.519 millennia to form. The source argues this threatens 00:08:07.519 --> 00:08:10.160 the survival of local wildlife, like jaguars 00:08:10.160 --> 00:08:13.100 and bighorn sheep, and it's severely disrupting 00:08:13.100 --> 00:08:15.420 Big Bend National Park. And the most frustrating 00:08:15.420 --> 00:08:17.100 part, according to the authors, is that there 00:08:17.100 --> 00:08:19.839 is a cheaper, less destructive alternative that's 00:08:19.839 --> 00:08:22.500 just being completely ignored. They suggest having 00:08:22.500 --> 00:08:25.220 the Army Corps of Engineers simply dredge the 00:08:25.220 --> 00:08:27.779 river to make it 10 feet deep and use connected 00:08:27.779 --> 00:08:30.300 buoys. Which would create a natural, formidable 00:08:30.300 --> 00:08:33.220 barrier without draining the aquifers. Exactly. 00:08:33.559 --> 00:08:35.210 But it's not being considered because because 00:08:35.210 --> 00:08:37.350 it doesn't fit the established political narrative 00:08:37.350 --> 00:08:40.210 of a physical wall. If we connect this to the 00:08:40.210 --> 00:08:42.870 bigger picture, this chaotic, unpredictable environment 00:08:42.870 --> 00:08:45.210 at the top where rules are bypassed and consequences 00:08:45.210 --> 00:08:47.509 are ignored, it doesn't just stay in politics. 00:08:47.889 --> 00:08:50.350 It bleeds directly into the financial markets. 00:08:50.450 --> 00:08:53.149 And that transitions us perfectly into the macroeconomic 00:08:53.149 --> 00:08:55.490 data provided by Hedgeye. Right. Let's look at 00:08:55.490 --> 00:08:58.429 the financial fallout. The Hedgeye source drops 00:08:58.429 --> 00:09:00.629 us right into an economic environment they call 00:09:00.629 --> 00:09:03.419 Quad 3. And I'm going to need you to explain 00:09:03.419 --> 00:09:05.080 this to me like I'm five, because they throw 00:09:05.080 --> 00:09:07.419 around a lot of heavy financial jargon. What 00:09:07.419 --> 00:09:10.259 exactly is a Quad 3 environment? They can definitely 00:09:10.259 --> 00:09:14.039 do that. So Quad 3 is Hedgeye's proprietary term 00:09:14.039 --> 00:09:17.179 for stagflation. Think of the economy as having 00:09:17.179 --> 00:09:21.090 two main engines, growth and inflation. In a 00:09:21.090 --> 00:09:23.409 healthy economy, growth is up and inflation is 00:09:23.409 --> 00:09:26.269 manageable. OK, makes sense. But in Quad 3, the 00:09:26.269 --> 00:09:28.350 growth engine is stalling out while the inflation 00:09:28.350 --> 00:09:31.590 engine is overheating. It is notoriously the 00:09:31.590 --> 00:09:34.190 most difficult economic environment for an everyday 00:09:34.190 --> 00:09:36.909 person or an investor to navigate because the 00:09:36.909 --> 00:09:38.909 things that usually protect your money just stop 00:09:38.909 --> 00:09:40.690 working. And the numbers they provide to back 00:09:40.690 --> 00:09:43.860 this up are jarring. They state their CPI now 00:09:43.860 --> 00:09:46.299 cast, which is their real time inflation tracker, 00:09:46.720 --> 00:09:49.779 has ripped higher by 67 basis points month over 00:09:49.779 --> 00:09:53.360 month, hitting positive 3 .08 % year over year. 00:09:53.820 --> 00:09:55.720 For anyone not staring at Bloomberg terminals 00:09:55.720 --> 00:09:58.379 all day, what is a basis point and why does a 00:09:58.379 --> 00:10:01.360 67 point jump matter? A basis point is simply 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:04.000 one hundredth of a percent. So 67 basis points 00:10:04.000 --> 00:10:06.320 is roughly two thirds of a percent. Which sounds 00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:09.379 tiny. It does sound tiny, but in macroeconomic 00:10:09.379 --> 00:10:12.019 terms, inflation jumping that much in a single 00:10:12.019 --> 00:10:14.740 month is a massive acceleration. It basically 00:10:14.740 --> 00:10:17.299 means the cost of living is accelerating away 00:10:17.299 --> 00:10:20.059 from people's wages much faster than the official 00:10:20.059 --> 00:10:23.179 government reports are currently admitting. And 00:10:23.179 --> 00:10:25.080 the source also mentions U .S. Treasury yields 00:10:25.080 --> 00:10:27.940 are surging, like the two years up. 18 basis 00:10:27.940 --> 00:10:30.600 points. Plus, bond market volatility measured 00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:33.860 by something called the MUVI index is up nearly 00:10:33.860 --> 00:10:36.820 70%. Oh, and they say the VIX is sitting in the 00:10:36.820 --> 00:10:40.000 chop bucket at 27 .46. Break all that down for 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:42.580 us. This is crucial to understand the risk environment. 00:10:42.759 --> 00:10:45.080 So the VIX is the stock market's fear gauge. 00:10:45.559 --> 00:10:47.840 When it's at 27, it means the stock market is 00:10:47.840 --> 00:10:50.360 expecting violent, unpredictable price swings, 00:10:50.580 --> 00:10:52.720 what they call the chop bucket. OK, so stocks 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:55.250 are scary. What about bonds? Well, the movie 00:10:55.250 --> 00:10:57.450 index is even more important right now. That 00:10:57.450 --> 00:11:00.529 is the fear gauge for the bond market. Traditionally, 00:11:00.570 --> 00:11:02.629 you know, bonds are supposed to be the safe, 00:11:02.929 --> 00:11:05.830 boring bedrock of your retirement account. If 00:11:05.830 --> 00:11:08.789 the movie index is up almost 70 percent, it means 00:11:08.789 --> 00:11:11.330 the safe foundation of the global financial system 00:11:11.330 --> 00:11:13.870 is shaking violently. And the hedge eyed piece 00:11:13.870 --> 00:11:15.809 goes deeper than just reading us the numbers. 00:11:16.389 --> 00:11:19.409 They introduce this sociological concept from 00:11:19.409 --> 00:11:21.950 a historian named Neil Howe called the fourth 00:11:21.950 --> 00:11:24.970 turning thesis. What is that? The core idea of 00:11:24.970 --> 00:11:27.269 the fourth turning is that history moves in cycles, 00:11:27.490 --> 00:11:30.009 and before a massive societal crisis forces a 00:11:30.009 --> 00:11:32.929 true structural reckoning, institutions rot from 00:11:32.929 --> 00:11:34.889 the inside out. They stop serving their original 00:11:34.889 --> 00:11:37.610 purpose and become entirely self -serving. And 00:11:37.610 --> 00:11:39.669 the authors point the finger squarely at the 00:11:39.669 --> 00:11:42.970 Federal Reserve as Exhibit A of this institutional 00:11:42.970 --> 00:11:46.049 rot. Yes, they do. The author vehemently critiques 00:11:46.049 --> 00:11:49.120 the Fed, calling it a captured institution. The 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:50.860 mechanical argument here is that the Fed was 00:11:50.860 --> 00:11:53.740 designed in 1913 to be a true lender of last 00:11:53.740 --> 00:11:56.320 resort, you know, a cold calculating math engine, 00:11:56.700 --> 00:11:58.679 totally insulated from political pressure. But 00:11:58.679 --> 00:12:01.659 not anymore, according to Hedgeye. Right. Today, 00:12:01.799 --> 00:12:04.700 the source argues, the Fed cares more about generating 00:12:04.700 --> 00:12:07.480 positive headlines and being loved by the elites 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:09.899 they are supposed to regulate than they do about 00:12:09.899 --> 00:12:13.100 maintaining actual monetary discipline. So what 00:12:13.100 --> 00:12:15.840 does this all mean for you, the listener? If 00:12:15.840 --> 00:12:18.059 the Federal Reserve is acting like a referee 00:12:18.059 --> 00:12:20.919 who wants to be liked by the fans in the stands 00:12:20.919 --> 00:12:23.360 more than they want to call a fair game, how 00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:25.980 can anyone trust the score on the board? It's 00:12:25.980 --> 00:12:27.700 incredibly difficult. I mean, if you were just 00:12:27.700 --> 00:12:29.840 a regular person trying to save for a house or 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:32.409 retirement, How are you supposed to navigate 00:12:32.409 --> 00:12:35.529 a quad -three stagflation environment when both 00:12:35.529 --> 00:12:38.330 stocks and bonds are acting erratically? According 00:12:38.330 --> 00:12:40.590 to the Hedgeye data, you basically have to abandon 00:12:40.590 --> 00:12:42.970 the old playbook. They note they had to get out 00:12:42.970 --> 00:12:45.629 of long -term treasuries entirely, pivoting to 00:12:45.629 --> 00:12:47.830 assets like the U .S. dollar, gold, and energy 00:12:47.830 --> 00:12:50.580 sectors just to survive the chop. Wow. Yeah. 00:12:50.820 --> 00:12:53.679 A traditional set it and forget it 60 -40 portfolio 00:12:53.679 --> 00:12:55.740 of stocks and bonds is essentially a sitting 00:12:55.740 --> 00:12:58.259 duck when inflation is eating your cash and bonds 00:12:58.259 --> 00:13:00.840 are violently fluctuating. Which perfectly sets 00:13:00.840 --> 00:13:03.639 up the next piece of our puzzle. If the traditional 00:13:03.639 --> 00:13:06.139 system is a sitting duck and the referees are 00:13:06.139 --> 00:13:08.960 captured, people will inevitably look for new 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:11.720 systems. And that brings us to the demographic 00:13:11.720 --> 00:13:14.299 data from Northwestern Mutual regarding this 00:13:14.299 --> 00:13:16.519 youth revolt. This is where the behavioral shift 00:13:16.519 --> 00:13:19.299 becomes undeniable. The survey data shows that 00:13:19.299 --> 00:13:22.399 younger generations are entirely abandoning traditional 00:13:22.399 --> 00:13:25.240 risk aversion. The numbers are wild. But before 00:13:25.240 --> 00:13:27.419 we get into them, the report keeps referring 00:13:27.419 --> 00:13:30.799 to millennials and homelanders. Now, we know 00:13:30.799 --> 00:13:33.500 Millennials, but who exactly are the Homelanders? 00:13:33.779 --> 00:13:36.259 Homelanders is a demographic term used by some 00:13:36.259 --> 00:13:38.220 researchers to describe the generation that comes 00:13:38.220 --> 00:13:40.960 after Millennials, essentially Generation Z and 00:13:40.960 --> 00:13:43.379 Generation Alpha. They are the cohort that grew 00:13:43.379 --> 00:13:46.220 up entirely post -911 in a world defined by the 00:13:46.220 --> 00:13:48.519 Department of Homeland Security, constant digital 00:13:48.519 --> 00:13:50.980 connectivity, and rolling financial crises. Okay, 00:13:50.980 --> 00:13:52.860 so looking at these Homelanders and Millennials, 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:56.559 the Northwestern Mutual data says 35 % of Millennials 00:13:56.559 --> 00:13:59.769 and 32 % of Homelanders are either are invested 00:13:59.769 --> 00:14:02.590 in crypto or considering it this year. That compares 00:14:02.590 --> 00:14:05.490 to just 24 % of the general adult population. 00:14:05.730 --> 00:14:08.570 And we see an even wider, more aggressive gap 00:14:08.570 --> 00:14:10.610 when it comes to sports betting and prediction 00:14:10.610 --> 00:14:14.210 markets. 32 % of homelanders participate in those 00:14:14.210 --> 00:14:17.289 markets versus only 17 % of the general adult 00:14:17.289 --> 00:14:20.110 population. That is nearly double the participation 00:14:20.110 --> 00:14:22.509 rate in high risk gambling. And these platforms, 00:14:22.750 --> 00:14:24.649 they're aggressively expanding who they target. 00:14:25.070 --> 00:14:27.190 The source mentions a prediction market platform 00:14:27.190 --> 00:14:30.009 called Kalshi. They managed to double their female 00:14:30.009 --> 00:14:33.549 user base, taking it from 13 % to 26 % in just 00:14:33.549 --> 00:14:36.389 10 months. That's a huge jump. And how did they 00:14:36.389 --> 00:14:39.110 do it? Not by pushing sports, but by offering 00:14:39.110 --> 00:14:41.389 financial prediction contracts on pop culture, 00:14:41.610 --> 00:14:44.470 music charts, and reality TV outcomes. This raises 00:14:44.470 --> 00:14:47.590 an important question. Why are young people who 00:14:47.590 --> 00:14:49.690 are historically known for lacking disposable 00:14:49.690 --> 00:14:51.990 income and being financially conservative early 00:14:51.990 --> 00:14:55.009 in life suddenly acting like casino high rollers 00:14:55.009 --> 00:14:58.360 on reality TV outcomes? Right. And the report 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:00.659 explicitly argues that it's not because they 00:15:00.659 --> 00:15:03.279 view these bets as random lottery tickets. It's 00:15:03.279 --> 00:15:05.659 a fundamental mindset shift regarding the mechanics 00:15:05.659 --> 00:15:08.500 of wealth. These young adults believe that by 00:15:08.500 --> 00:15:11.100 using their own data, their understanding of 00:15:11.100 --> 00:15:13.600 algorithms, and their cultural intuition, they 00:15:13.600 --> 00:15:16.019 can actually beat a system they view as structurally 00:15:16.019 --> 00:15:18.929 rigged against them. But the source is also careful 00:15:18.929 --> 00:15:21.950 to note the severe psychological toll this new 00:15:21.950 --> 00:15:25.149 paradigm is taking. Young men, who currently 00:15:25.149 --> 00:15:27.590 dominate the volume in these betting demographics, 00:15:28.129 --> 00:15:30.549 are also reporting the highest levels of concern 00:15:30.549 --> 00:15:32.850 regarding the negative impacts of this constant 00:15:32.850 --> 00:15:35.529 gambling on their emotional health and on society 00:15:35.529 --> 00:15:37.549 as a whole. Yeah, they feel trapped. Like they 00:15:37.549 --> 00:15:39.370 believe they have to take extreme risks to get 00:15:39.370 --> 00:15:41.690 ahead, but they are experiencing the anxiety 00:15:41.690 --> 00:15:44.370 of that risk roulette firsthand. Exactly. And 00:15:44.370 --> 00:15:46.210 that brings us to the most debated alternative 00:15:46.210 --> 00:15:49.320 asset of of all, cryptocurrency. The electoral 00:15:49.320 --> 00:15:52.399 vote source takes an incredibly harsh, unyielding 00:15:52.399 --> 00:15:55.919 stance here. It absolutely does. The author unequivocally 00:15:55.919 --> 00:15:58.799 labels the entire crypto industry a Ponzi scheme. 00:15:59.480 --> 00:16:01.340 Their mechanical argument is that the underlying 00:16:01.340 --> 00:16:03.960 product has absolutely no intrinsic value. Right. 00:16:04.019 --> 00:16:05.980 They compare it to a share of stock, explaining 00:16:05.980 --> 00:16:08.580 that a stock gives you a legal claim to a company's 00:16:08.580 --> 00:16:12.120 actual generating profits and assets. Crypto, 00:16:12.159 --> 00:16:14.340 the author states, offers nothing comparable. 00:16:14.639 --> 00:16:17.000 It produces nothing. They even compare its utility 00:16:17.000 --> 00:16:19.559 to traditional payment processors, right? Like 00:16:19.559 --> 00:16:22.799 MasterCard. Yes. The author points out that MasterCard 00:16:22.799 --> 00:16:26.399 easily processes 400 million transactions a day 00:16:26.399 --> 00:16:29.480 with a clear, accurate, and reversible ledger. 00:16:30.259 --> 00:16:32.940 They insist that the only actual mechanical advantage 00:16:32.940 --> 00:16:35.200 a blockchain offers over traditional finance 00:16:35.200 --> 00:16:38.480 is secrecy and anonymity. And in their view, 00:16:38.759 --> 00:16:41.279 that anonymity only truly benefits criminals, 00:16:41.559 --> 00:16:43.399 like hackers collecting ransomware payments or 00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:45.419 cartels laundering money. Here's where it gets 00:16:45.419 --> 00:16:48.340 really interesting. The source entirely dismisses 00:16:48.340 --> 00:16:51.340 crypto as just a criminal Ponzi scheme. But if 00:16:51.340 --> 00:16:53.419 35 percent of millennials are opting in, is that 00:16:53.419 --> 00:16:56.200 just mass delusion on a generational scale? Or 00:16:56.200 --> 00:16:58.039 is it actually a perfectly rational response 00:16:58.039 --> 00:17:00.639 to the captured Fed and the Quad 3 stagflation 00:17:00.639 --> 00:17:03.059 we just unpacked? That is the ultimate tension 00:17:03.059 --> 00:17:05.539 the sources present to us today. Right. I mean, 00:17:05.559 --> 00:17:07.539 if the traditional money in your savings account 00:17:07.539 --> 00:17:11.099 is mechanically melting away due to 67 basis 00:17:11.099 --> 00:17:13.420 point jumps in inflation, aren't these younger 00:17:13.420 --> 00:17:16.279 generations just looking for a new lifeboat regardless 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:18.240 of whether the old guard approves of the vessel? 00:17:18.619 --> 00:17:20.480 You have traditional analysts looking at the 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:23.259 mechanics of crypto and seeing a scam, while 00:17:23.259 --> 00:17:25.319 younger demographics look at the mechanics of 00:17:25.319 --> 00:17:27.880 the traditional financial system, see institutional 00:17:27.880 --> 00:17:29.960 rot, and decide they'd rather take their chances 00:17:29.960 --> 00:17:33.009 with decentralized code. And here's where the 00:17:33.009 --> 00:17:36.230 loop completely closes. All of these high -risk 00:17:36.230 --> 00:17:39.069 bets, all of this alternative tech money is now 00:17:39.069 --> 00:17:41.690 flooding back into the political system, creating 00:17:41.690 --> 00:17:44.109 absolute chaos for the establishment. We are 00:17:44.109 --> 00:17:46.390 basically looking at an election roulette. The 00:17:46.390 --> 00:17:48.630 source highlights that outside spending in political 00:17:48.630 --> 00:17:52.309 primaries has already hit an astronomical $225 00:17:52.309 --> 00:17:55.630 million, and we are barely into the cycle. And 00:17:55.630 --> 00:17:58.029 it's not transparent spending. Shell groups are 00:17:58.029 --> 00:18:00.349 hiding the origins of the money. We have pro 00:18:00.349 --> 00:18:02.650 crypto super PACs like one called fair shake 00:18:02.650 --> 00:18:06.049 and heavily funded unregulated AI lobbying groups 00:18:06.049 --> 00:18:08.750 pouring millions into local races. Their goal 00:18:08.750 --> 00:18:11.630 is to install politicians who will write favorable 00:18:11.630 --> 00:18:14.710 hands off regulatory frameworks for their specific 00:18:14.710 --> 00:18:17.809 industries. And they are actively battling traditional 00:18:17.809 --> 00:18:20.890 political heavyweights like AI pack in these 00:18:20.890 --> 00:18:23.750 local primaries. And this massive influx of special 00:18:23.750 --> 00:18:26.509 interest money is accelerating a complete breakdown 00:18:26.509 --> 00:18:29.349 of party loyalty. And again, to remind you, the 00:18:29.349 --> 00:18:31.809 listener, as we dive into these specific races 00:18:31.809 --> 00:18:34.630 and mutinies, we are strictly reporting the polling 00:18:34.630 --> 00:18:37.210 data and the political causality provided by 00:18:37.210 --> 00:18:39.490 the source material without endorsing the views 00:18:39.490 --> 00:18:41.730 on any of these specific politicians. Exactly. 00:18:41.990 --> 00:18:44.680 Strict impartiality. So looking at the Democratic 00:18:44.680 --> 00:18:47.220 side, the source details an astonishing collapse 00:18:47.220 --> 00:18:49.700 in support for Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman. 00:18:50.140 --> 00:18:53.160 When he campaigned in 2022, his net approval 00:18:53.160 --> 00:18:56.299 among Pennsylvania Democrats was plus 68. Today, 00:18:56.680 --> 00:18:59.799 it has crashed 108 points to a dismal minus 40. 00:18:59.900 --> 00:19:01.779 And the source explains exactly why that mutiny 00:19:01.779 --> 00:19:04.279 happened. The catalyst was Fetterman becoming 00:19:04.279 --> 00:19:06.319 the tie breaking vote to advance the nomination 00:19:06.319 --> 00:19:08.039 of Mark Wayne Mullen to head up the Department 00:19:08.039 --> 00:19:09.980 of Homeland Security. Wait, isn't Mark Wayne 00:19:09.980 --> 00:19:12.859 Mullen a Republican? He is. And more importantly, 00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:15.640 to the furious Democratic base, the source notes 00:19:15.640 --> 00:19:18.359 his background is running a family plumbing company, 00:19:19.059 --> 00:19:22.019 not national security. Oh, wow. Yeah. Advancing 00:19:22.019 --> 00:19:24.940 an unqualified political opponent to run a sprawling, 00:19:24.960 --> 00:19:27.279 massive national security apparatus, especially 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:30.180 one we just learned, is currently unfunded, and 00:19:30.180 --> 00:19:32.599 relying on untrained agents caused a massive 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:36.119 backlash. House Democrats are reportedly furious, 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:38.839 predicting a severe primary challenge to Federman 00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:41.640 in 2028. But the Republican establishment is 00:19:41.640 --> 00:19:44.920 facing its own severe mutinies, too. In Texas, 00:19:45.039 --> 00:19:47.579 a new poll shows both GOP candidates for the 00:19:47.579 --> 00:19:50.099 Senate runoff are deeply underwater with voters. 00:19:50.900 --> 00:19:53.839 Senator John Cornyn is at minus 42 with independents, 00:19:54.059 --> 00:19:56.400 and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is at minus 00:19:56.400 --> 00:19:59.220 32. And the mechanical causality there, according 00:19:59.220 --> 00:20:01.539 to the source, is that the Republican base is 00:20:01.539 --> 00:20:04.259 fracturing. Both men are actually trailing a 00:20:04.259 --> 00:20:07.059 Democrat, James Delorico, in general election 00:20:07.059 --> 00:20:09.339 matchups, which is practically unheard of in 00:20:09.339 --> 00:20:11.380 modern Texas politics. Yeah, the establishment 00:20:11.380 --> 00:20:13.440 is definitely losing its grip on the electorate. 00:20:13.799 --> 00:20:16.460 We even see Donald Trump doing a rare total reversal 00:20:16.460 --> 00:20:18.500 on an endorsement just to protect that slipping 00:20:18.500 --> 00:20:20.779 establishment grip. Right. He had initially endorsed 00:20:20.779 --> 00:20:23.940 a candidate the source describes as a MAGA hardliner, 00:20:24.259 --> 00:20:27.180 Hope Sheppleman, in Colorado, specifically to 00:20:27.180 --> 00:20:29.460 punish an incumbent who voted against his tariffs. 00:20:29.720 --> 00:20:32.339 But Trump abruptly dropped her to back the incumbent 00:20:32.339 --> 00:20:36.380 Jeff Herd. Why? Simply because he realized Shepleman 00:20:36.380 --> 00:20:38.900 might lose the general election and cost Republicans 00:20:38.900 --> 00:20:41.160 their fragile House majority. The traditional 00:20:41.160 --> 00:20:43.440 timeline of politics is completely warping under 00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:45.920 this pressure, too. The source notes that the 00:20:45.920 --> 00:20:48.200 twenty twenty eight presidential race has essentially 00:20:48.200 --> 00:20:51.200 already begun. Democratic Governor Andy Beshear 00:20:51.200 --> 00:20:54.079 is aggressively attacking Republican J .D. Vance 00:20:54.079 --> 00:20:56.950 in Ohio right now. And what is the specific attack? 00:20:57.150 --> 00:20:59.630 He's targeting Vance's shifting stance on forever 00:20:59.630 --> 00:21:01.990 wars in the Middle East, which ties us right 00:21:01.990 --> 00:21:04.509 back to our very first segment on the unpredictable 00:21:04.509 --> 00:21:07.190 high -risk gambles happening with Iran. It is 00:21:07.190 --> 00:21:09.690 all interconnected. And to top it all off, the 00:21:09.690 --> 00:21:12.009 very mechanics of how we vote are up in the air. 00:21:12.450 --> 00:21:14.170 The Supreme Court is currently hearing a case, 00:21:14.349 --> 00:21:16.789 RNC versus Mississippi, over whether mail -in 00:21:16.789 --> 00:21:18.990 ballots arriving up to five days after election 00:21:18.990 --> 00:21:20.859 day should be counted. Right. The Republican 00:21:20.859 --> 00:21:23.519 National Committee argues election day mechanically 00:21:23.519 --> 00:21:26.660 means the actual day, while Mississippi is trying 00:21:26.660 --> 00:21:29.740 to adjust the rules to make voting easier. It 00:21:29.740 --> 00:21:31.940 sounds like a game of political musical chairs. 00:21:32.759 --> 00:21:34.539 But the special interest money is controlling 00:21:34.539 --> 00:21:37.640 the volume of the music, and the voters are yanking 00:21:37.640 --> 00:21:39.559 the chairs away from their own party leaders. 00:21:39.900 --> 00:21:42.799 If voters are this eager to throw out establishment 00:21:42.799 --> 00:21:45.380 figures on both the left and the right, are we 00:21:45.380 --> 00:21:48.480 watching Neil Howe's forth -turning institutional 00:21:48.480 --> 00:21:50.599 rot happen to the political parties themselves 00:21:50.599 --> 00:21:53.500 in real time? Based on the evidence in the source 00:21:53.500 --> 00:21:56.019 material, it certainly appears that way. The 00:21:56.019 --> 00:21:58.000 foundation of these institutions, whether it's 00:21:58.000 --> 00:22:00.480 the Fed trying to manage stagflation, the traditional 00:22:00.480 --> 00:22:03.160 bond market shaking with volatility, or the two 00:22:03.160 --> 00:22:05.440 party system losing control of its voters, it's 00:22:05.440 --> 00:22:08.420 all cracking under the weight of this new risk 00:22:08.420 --> 00:22:10.559 tolerant environment. So let's bring this all 00:22:10.559 --> 00:22:13.119 together. We started this deep dive looking at 00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:14.980 how the White House is rolling the dice on foreign 00:22:14.980 --> 00:22:18.299 policy in Iran, bypassing generals and ignoring 00:22:18.299 --> 00:22:20.619 historical precedent, which threatens to cause 00:22:20.619 --> 00:22:23.769 mass mechanical ripple effects, like an impending 00:22:23.769 --> 00:22:26.089 fertilizer shock that will spike your grocery 00:22:26.089 --> 00:22:29.109 bills. We then tracked how that kind of top -down, 00:22:29.170 --> 00:22:33.029 freestyle chaos contributes to a Quad 3 stagflationary 00:22:33.029 --> 00:22:35.390 economy, an environment where inflation rips 00:22:35.390 --> 00:22:38.990 higher by 67 basis points while economic growth 00:22:38.990 --> 00:22:42.230 stalls, exposing the structural rot inside captured 00:22:42.230 --> 00:22:44.309 institutions like the Federal Reserve. And we 00:22:44.309 --> 00:22:46.109 saw how the younger generations, the Millennials 00:22:46.109 --> 00:22:48.470 and the Homelanders, are looking at this broken, 00:22:48.730 --> 00:22:51.170 volatile landscape. Instead of playing it safe, 00:22:51.609 --> 00:22:53.289 they are responding by using their understanding 00:22:53.289 --> 00:22:56.470 of data to place massive high -risk bets on crypto 00:22:56.470 --> 00:22:58.890 and prediction markets, simply because they believe 00:22:58.890 --> 00:23:01.109 the old system is rigged against them. Finally, 00:23:01.150 --> 00:23:03.450 we watched as that same alternative tech money 00:23:03.450 --> 00:23:06.130 poured gasoline on an already chaotic political 00:23:06.130 --> 00:23:09.089 system, buying regulatory influence and fueling 00:23:09.089 --> 00:23:10.990 massive voter mutinies against the establishment 00:23:10.990 --> 00:23:13.289 in both parties. So what does this all mean for 00:23:13.289 --> 00:23:15.890 you? Why does this matter? Because in a world 00:23:15.890 --> 00:23:17.670 where the traditional playbooks of government, 00:23:17.970 --> 00:23:20.569 finance and elections are literally being thrown 00:23:20.569 --> 00:23:23.670 out the window, recognizing why everyone around 00:23:23.670 --> 00:23:26.470 you is suddenly embracing extreme risk is the 00:23:26.470 --> 00:23:29.950 first necessary step to protecting your own assets. 00:23:30.200 --> 00:23:33.380 your own portfolio, and honestly your own sanity. 00:23:33.799 --> 00:23:35.980 You cannot navigate a storm if you are pretending 00:23:35.980 --> 00:23:39.079 the sky is clear and you can't rely on a referee 00:23:39.079 --> 00:23:41.920 who is no longer calling a fair game. Exactly. 00:23:42.480 --> 00:23:44.440 And that leaves us with one final thought to 00:23:44.440 --> 00:23:46.460 mull over, something for you to explore on your 00:23:46.460 --> 00:23:49.380 own. We've seen today that these younger homelander 00:23:49.380 --> 00:23:51.900 generations are completely abandoning traditional 00:23:51.900 --> 00:23:54.700 financial and political institutions. They fundamentally 00:23:54.700 --> 00:23:57.200 believe the game is rigged, so they are relying 00:23:57.200 --> 00:24:00.220 on decentralized algorithms, prediction markets, 00:24:00.700 --> 00:24:03.680 and crypto to build their wealth. So what happens 00:24:03.680 --> 00:24:07.519 when this specific generation actually inherits 00:24:07.519 --> 00:24:10.299 the levers of power? Will they even bother to 00:24:10.299 --> 00:24:12.759 do the hard work of repairing legacy institutions 00:24:12.759 --> 00:24:15.099 like the Federal Reserve, the DHS, and the political 00:24:15.099 --> 00:24:17.700 parties? Or will they just tokenize them, put 00:24:17.700 --> 00:24:19.720 the entire government on a blockchain, and let 00:24:19.720 --> 00:24:22.180 the algorithms run the country? That is the ultimate 00:24:22.180 --> 00:24:24.700 gamble. Thanks for joining us on this Deep Dive. 00:24:24.799 --> 00:24:26.460 Stay curious, and we'll see you next time.