WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.900 Today is Thursday, March 19th, 2026. And in California 00:00:05.900 --> 00:00:09.599 right now, regular gasoline just crossed $5 .50 00:00:09.599 --> 00:00:12.660 a gallon. Wow. Yeah, that is just brutal for 00:00:12.660 --> 00:00:15.099 the consumer. It really is. Meanwhile, the US 00:00:15.099 --> 00:00:17.899 Senate is completely deadlocked over, of all 00:00:17.899 --> 00:00:21.120 things, transgender sports bands. And at the 00:00:21.120 --> 00:00:23.019 exact same time, millions of dollars are being 00:00:23.019 --> 00:00:25.600 treated. potentially illegally on who the next 00:00:25.600 --> 00:00:27.579 vice presidential nominee is going to be. It 00:00:27.579 --> 00:00:29.359 sounds like a totally random list of headlines, 00:00:29.640 --> 00:00:32.100 honestly. Right. But to understand how all these 00:00:32.100 --> 00:00:34.460 seemingly disconnected events actually tie together 00:00:34.460 --> 00:00:37.060 into this one massive narrative, we actually 00:00:37.060 --> 00:00:38.840 have to start by looking at a medieval drought 00:00:38.840 --> 00:00:41.939 in Sicily. So welcome to today's Deep Dive. We 00:00:41.939 --> 00:00:44.240 got an incredibly complex stack of sources to 00:00:44.240 --> 00:00:47.000 get through today, and we are just thrilled you're 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:49.350 joining us. Yeah, the historical parallels we're 00:00:49.350 --> 00:00:52.289 seeing in today's data are just striking. I mean, 00:00:52.329 --> 00:00:54.770 we are looking at some hard political polling 00:00:54.770 --> 00:00:57.789 from electoral vote news. We've got granular 00:00:57.789 --> 00:01:00.310 economic and supply chain data from hedge eye 00:01:00.310 --> 00:01:02.729 risk management. And we're synthesizing all of 00:01:02.729 --> 00:01:05.890 that through a very specific cultural lens, one 00:01:05.890 --> 00:01:08.689 that happens to land right on today's date. OK, 00:01:08.709 --> 00:01:10.829 let's unpack this because for you listening, 00:01:10.989 --> 00:01:14.219 today might just be a standard Thursday. In the 00:01:14.219 --> 00:01:16.659 liturgical and cultural calendar, particularly 00:01:16.659 --> 00:01:20.620 in Italy, March 19th is the feast of Saint Joseph. 00:01:20.939 --> 00:01:22.500 Right. And the cultural history we're pulling 00:01:22.500 --> 00:01:25.079 from here isn't about, like, greeting cards or 00:01:25.079 --> 00:01:28.640 retail sales. Pope Sixtus V formally established 00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:32.159 this feast in Rome way back in 1479 to celebrate 00:01:32.159 --> 00:01:34.640 Joseph not just as a historical figure, but as 00:01:34.640 --> 00:01:37.099 a protector, you know, a guardian against chaos. 00:01:37.239 --> 00:01:39.680 And that concept of guardianship took on a very 00:01:39.680 --> 00:01:42.000 literal meaning in Sicily. Yeah. The local history 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:44.760 there describes this medieval drought that led 00:01:44.760 --> 00:01:47.060 to widespread famine. I mean, the survival of 00:01:47.060 --> 00:01:49.260 entire communities was actively threatened. Yeah, 00:01:49.480 --> 00:01:52.500 totally existential. Exactly. So the lore states 00:01:52.500 --> 00:01:54.560 that the people prayed to St. Joseph for rain. 00:01:55.260 --> 00:01:56.959 And when the rains finally broke the drought 00:01:56.959 --> 00:01:59.659 and saved the crops, the response wasn't just, 00:01:59.659 --> 00:02:01.859 you know, a private celebration. Right. They 00:02:01.859 --> 00:02:03.700 created what is known as the Table of the Poor. 00:02:03.980 --> 00:02:06.239 Instead of just hoarding the new harvest for 00:02:06.239 --> 00:02:09.240 themselves, they hosted these massive communal 00:02:09.240 --> 00:02:12.020 banquets for the less fortunate. They built these 00:02:12.020 --> 00:02:14.919 really elaborate altars. Yeah, with the meatless 00:02:14.919 --> 00:02:18.099 dishes and everything. Exactly. They baked decorative 00:02:18.099 --> 00:02:20.379 bread shaped like carpenter's tools, and they 00:02:20.379 --> 00:02:23.300 prepared pasta covered in bread crumbs to symbolize 00:02:23.300 --> 00:02:26.340 sawdust. You know, a nod to Joseph's trade. And 00:02:26.340 --> 00:02:28.389 of course, they made deep fried zeppel. Sounds 00:02:28.389 --> 00:02:31.110 pretty amazing, honestly. Oh, absolutely. But 00:02:31.110 --> 00:02:33.550 it was an entire cultural infrastructure built 00:02:33.550 --> 00:02:36.430 around finding stability and providing for the 00:02:36.430 --> 00:02:38.389 community when the environment around them was 00:02:38.389 --> 00:02:41.389 just intensely hostile. Which serves as the perfect 00:02:41.389 --> 00:02:44.830 analytical framework for our sources today. Because 00:02:44.830 --> 00:02:47.169 St. Joseph culturally represents this idea of 00:02:47.169 --> 00:02:49.849 quiet strength. It's the archetype of action 00:02:49.849 --> 00:02:53.439 over words. of maintaining deep stability in 00:02:53.439 --> 00:02:55.840 the face of profound environmental and systemic 00:02:55.840 --> 00:02:58.919 chaos. And as we transition into the geopolitical 00:02:58.919 --> 00:03:01.560 and economic data sitting in front of us, we're 00:03:01.560 --> 00:03:04.699 gonna see that quiet, grounded stability is the 00:03:04.699 --> 00:03:07.379 exact thing missing from our modern systems. 00:03:07.659 --> 00:03:10.060 Because we are effectively facing our own modern 00:03:10.060 --> 00:03:12.620 famines right now. I mean... not necessarily 00:03:12.620 --> 00:03:16.259 a lack of crops, but a severe drought of resources 00:03:16.259 --> 00:03:19.360 and functionality. Let's look at the data from 00:03:19.360 --> 00:03:23.020 Hedgeye regarding the 2026 energy shock. The 00:03:23.020 --> 00:03:26.219 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran began 00:03:26.219 --> 00:03:29.280 just a few weeks ago on February 28th. And as 00:03:29.280 --> 00:03:31.919 a direct result, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively 00:03:31.919 --> 00:03:34.759 closed to commercial shipping. Yeah, and to put 00:03:34.759 --> 00:03:37.280 the geography into perspective for you, the Strait 00:03:37.280 --> 00:03:39.580 of Hormuz is this narrow bottleneck between the 00:03:39.580 --> 00:03:42.159 Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. So choking 00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:45.099 off that single waterway removes roughly 20 % 00:03:45.099 --> 00:03:47.300 of the world's seaborne oil supply from the global 00:03:47.300 --> 00:03:50.879 market overnight. 20 % overnight? That is just 00:03:50.879 --> 00:03:53.560 wild. It is. And the ripple effects detailed 00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:55.659 in the Hedgeye Report are immediate and severe. 00:03:56.099 --> 00:03:58.120 They're actually classifying this as the largest 00:03:58.120 --> 00:04:00.780 global energy disruption since the 1970s. Which 00:04:00.780 --> 00:04:04.069 is saying something. Seriously. Brent crude oil, 00:04:04.129 --> 00:04:08.110 which is the major global benchmark for oil prices, 00:04:09.050 --> 00:04:12.789 briefly surged past $119 a barrel. That is a 00:04:12.789 --> 00:04:15.090 40 % spike from where we were just weeks ago. 00:04:15.349 --> 00:04:17.649 And the localized pain is already hitting the 00:04:17.649 --> 00:04:19.629 consumer directly. You mentioned California, 00:04:20.009 --> 00:04:22.310 but the national average for a gallon of regular 00:04:22.310 --> 00:04:27.569 gas jumped 29 .9 % in a single month. It's at 00:04:27.569 --> 00:04:32.649 $3 .82 nationally. Wow. It's not just cars either. 00:04:33.069 --> 00:04:35.730 The aviation sector is taking a massive hit. 00:04:36.149 --> 00:04:39.709 Global jet fuel prices have spiked 82 .8 % over 00:04:39.709 --> 00:04:42.470 the last 30 days. To quantify what that actually 00:04:42.470 --> 00:04:45.350 means for a corporation, the CEO of Delta Airlines 00:04:45.350 --> 00:04:47.290 announced that this spike added approximately 00:04:47.290 --> 00:04:50.449 $400 million to their operating costs for the 00:04:50.449 --> 00:04:53.529 month of March alone. $400 million. Just an extra 00:04:53.529 --> 00:04:55.879 fuel cost. Yeah. But wait, I want to pause and 00:04:55.879 --> 00:04:57.660 look at the actual mechanics of the military 00:04:57.660 --> 00:04:59.959 conflict causing this, because the political 00:04:59.959 --> 00:05:02.220 narrative we're hearing doesn't really seem to 00:05:02.220 --> 00:05:05.839 match the reality on the ground. Well, the sources 00:05:05.839 --> 00:05:08.060 note that the U .S. military has executed this 00:05:08.060 --> 00:05:10.220 massive campaign, right, flattening thousands 00:05:10.220 --> 00:05:13.319 of targets within Iran. So if a global superpower 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:16.139 establishes that level of air superiority and 00:05:16.139 --> 00:05:19.240 destroys the opposing infrastructure, why can't 00:05:19.240 --> 00:05:21.279 the administration simply declare the shipping 00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:24.639 lanes secure, reopen the strait, and bring prices 00:05:24.639 --> 00:05:26.800 back down. I mean, it feels like unclogging a 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:28.819 major artery. What's fascinating here is how 00:05:28.819 --> 00:05:31.860 the mechanics of modern asymmetric warfare completely 00:05:31.860 --> 00:05:34.860 break traditional military math. You can have 00:05:34.860 --> 00:05:38.480 total air superiority, sure, but you cannot force 00:05:38.480 --> 00:05:41.339 a multinational shipping conglomerate to send 00:05:41.339 --> 00:05:43.660 a hundred million dollar oil tanker through a 00:05:43.660 --> 00:05:45.839 strait if there's even a fractional risk of it 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:48.600 being sunk. Ah, right. Because the insurance 00:05:48.600 --> 00:05:50.500 premiums alone would make the trip financially 00:05:50.500 --> 00:05:52.899 impossible. Precisely. The insurers just won't 00:05:52.899 --> 00:05:55.480 cover it. And Iran doesn't need to field a traditional 00:05:55.480 --> 00:05:58.120 Navy to keep the strait closed. They utilize 00:05:58.120 --> 00:06:02.959 $50 ,000 drone swarms and naval mines. Wow. $50 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:06.240 ,000 against a $100 million ship. Right. And 00:06:06.240 --> 00:06:08.920 the economic cost of the U .S. using a two million 00:06:08.920 --> 00:06:11.459 dollar interceptor missiles to shoot down a fifty 00:06:11.459 --> 00:06:14.480 thousand dollar drone is just totally unsustainable. 00:06:14.779 --> 00:06:18.959 So until every single asymmetric threat is neutralized, 00:06:19.139 --> 00:06:21.759 which is nearly impossible to guarantee in that 00:06:21.759 --> 00:06:24.579 kind of mountainous coastal terrain, the commercial 00:06:24.579 --> 00:06:27.360 shipping lanes remain closed. OK, so military 00:06:27.360 --> 00:06:29.779 dominance is totally decoupled from supply chain 00:06:29.779 --> 00:06:32.079 security. Exactly. And looking at the electoral 00:06:32.079 --> 00:06:34.759 vote analysis, the geopolitical knot is even 00:06:34.759 --> 00:06:38.430 tighter. The previous Iranian regime was decapitated 00:06:38.430 --> 00:06:41.170 by the strike, sure, but the power vacuum was 00:06:41.170 --> 00:06:43.889 immediately filled by the former supreme leader's 00:06:43.889 --> 00:06:47.189 son. And he is reportedly an even stricter hardliner. 00:06:47.449 --> 00:06:49.649 Yeah, the strikes effectively handed the new 00:06:49.649 --> 00:06:52.009 leader this massive rally around the flag event. 00:06:52.350 --> 00:06:54.430 It really helped him consolidate his domestic 00:06:54.430 --> 00:06:57.389 power. Furthermore, we have to look at the diverging 00:06:57.389 --> 00:07:00.449 strategic goals of the allied forces here. Israel's 00:07:00.449 --> 00:07:02.889 primary security objective is preventing a nuclear 00:07:02.889 --> 00:07:06.439 -armed Iran. from their strategic vantage point, 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:10.279 reducing Iran to a fractured failed state actually 00:07:10.279 --> 00:07:13.490 achieves that goal. because a failed state lacks 00:07:13.490 --> 00:07:16.250 the infrastructure to enrich uranium and build 00:07:16.250 --> 00:07:18.509 a warhead. But the United States does not want 00:07:18.509 --> 00:07:21.550 a massive, ungovernable failed state in the Middle 00:07:21.550 --> 00:07:24.449 East, because that just breeds completely different 00:07:24.449 --> 00:07:27.750 long -term terror threats. Exactly. And according 00:07:27.750 --> 00:07:29.990 to the sources, the core nuclear question remains 00:07:29.990 --> 00:07:32.629 unresolved anyway. They still possess enriched 00:07:32.629 --> 00:07:34.810 uranium. Which means the definition of victory 00:07:34.810 --> 00:07:37.610 is entirely fragmented. You have a closed global 00:07:37.610 --> 00:07:40.470 choke point, soaring energy costs, and really 00:07:40.470 --> 00:07:43.410 no clear diplomatic or military off -ramp. And 00:07:43.410 --> 00:07:45.069 we should be very clear here for you listening. 00:07:45.250 --> 00:07:47.350 We are looking at these military and political 00:07:47.350 --> 00:07:50.050 actions purely as data points. We are definitely 00:07:50.050 --> 00:07:52.449 not endorsing a specific foreign policy or taking 00:07:52.449 --> 00:07:55.050 a side. We're simply analyzing the fallout based 00:07:55.050 --> 00:07:57.250 on the sources. Right, strictly the data. Because 00:07:57.250 --> 00:07:59.810 the fallout leads to a massive contradiction 00:07:59.810 --> 00:08:02.529 in the political polling data. Historically, 00:08:02.550 --> 00:08:05.209 there is a very simple rule of gravity in politics. 00:08:05.810 --> 00:08:08.790 If a war causes an energy shock, and that shock 00:08:08.790 --> 00:08:12.149 drives up inflation, the incumbent politician's 00:08:12.149 --> 00:08:14.930 base begins to fracture. Always. Economic pain 00:08:14.930 --> 00:08:17.209 felt at the grocery store or the gas pump is 00:08:17.209 --> 00:08:20.149 basically the most reliable leading indicator 00:08:20.149 --> 00:08:22.290 of political punishment. We measure that through 00:08:22.290 --> 00:08:25.470 the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, which tracks 00:08:25.470 --> 00:08:27.850 the average change in prices paid by consumers 00:08:27.850 --> 00:08:31.029 over time. And right now, the March CPI is projected 00:08:31.029 --> 00:08:34.240 to come in at 3 .2%. And we have to remember 00:08:34.240 --> 00:08:36.860 that 3 .2 percent inflation isn't happening in 00:08:36.860 --> 00:08:39.720 a vacuum. No, not at all. It's compounding on 00:08:39.720 --> 00:08:42.120 top of the massive inflation spikes from the 00:08:42.120 --> 00:08:44.259 past few years. I mean, it destroyed the Biden 00:08:44.259 --> 00:08:46.399 administration's approval ratings previously. 00:08:47.120 --> 00:08:49.120 But the polling data from electoral vote shows 00:08:49.120 --> 00:08:51.460 the current administration's base is completely 00:08:51.460 --> 00:08:54.000 unaffected by the economic pain. They are holding 00:08:54.000 --> 00:08:56.700 entirely firm. It defies traditional political 00:08:56.700 --> 00:08:59.080 logic. It really does. Here's where it gets really 00:08:59.080 --> 00:09:02.350 interesting. I think the fundamental error political 00:09:02.350 --> 00:09:04.450 analysts are making right now is treating the 00:09:04.450 --> 00:09:07.389 modern political party like a traditional ideological 00:09:07.389 --> 00:09:11.129 organization, when in reality it actually operates 00:09:11.129 --> 00:09:14.649 much more like a pop star fandom. A fandom. Okay, 00:09:14.750 --> 00:09:16.429 walk me through how you see that distinction 00:09:16.429 --> 00:09:18.480 playing out in the polling. Well, think about 00:09:18.480 --> 00:09:21.720 the political landscape of the 1980s. The Republican 00:09:21.720 --> 00:09:24.960 Party was defined by a specific genre of politics, 00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:28.399 right? The genre was free market economics, robust 00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:31.259 global trade, small government. Ronald Reagan 00:09:31.259 --> 00:09:33.419 was just the front man playing that genre of 00:09:33.419 --> 00:09:35.820 music. OK, I follow you. If a subsequent politician 00:09:35.820 --> 00:09:37.840 came along and played a totally different tune, 00:09:37.980 --> 00:09:40.440 say, protectionist tariffs or massive deficit 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:43.379 spending, the fans would boo. The loyalty was 00:09:43.379 --> 00:09:45.519 to the genre. Right. But today, the movement 00:09:45.519 --> 00:09:47.820 isn't about the genre at all. It is entirely 00:09:47.820 --> 00:09:50.559 about the artist. Whatever tune the central figure 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:53.539 plays, the fans will buy the album. If we connect 00:09:53.539 --> 00:09:55.820 this to the bigger picture in the electoral vote 00:09:55.820 --> 00:09:58.879 data, the numbers heavily support that framework. 00:09:59.179 --> 00:10:02.980 The analysts highlight a severe ideological divergence 00:10:02.980 --> 00:10:06.500 between what they categorize as core M .A. Republicans 00:10:06.500 --> 00:10:09.500 and traditional non -M .A. Republicans. Yeah. 00:10:09.860 --> 00:10:12.059 When you pull them on actual policy issues like 00:10:12.059 --> 00:10:15.120 civil liberties, the role of education, or foreign 00:10:15.120 --> 00:10:18.039 trade, the traditional Republicans are miles 00:10:18.039 --> 00:10:20.639 away from the man and wing. The actual policy 00:10:20.639 --> 00:10:23.200 platforms are completely secondary. The movement 00:10:23.200 --> 00:10:26.559 is glued together by personality. not ideology. 00:10:26.940 --> 00:10:29.039 And the media seems to fall for the trap of treating 00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:31.240 it like an ideological party every single time. 00:10:31.299 --> 00:10:33.559 They do. You have these heidnick -visible figures 00:10:33.559 --> 00:10:36.480 in the conservative media space like Tucker Carlson 00:10:36.480 --> 00:10:39.539 or Joe Rogan taking very loud anti -war stances 00:10:39.539 --> 00:10:41.899 right now. The mainstream media sees that and 00:10:41.899 --> 00:10:44.220 publishes endless think pieces about a quote 00:10:44.220 --> 00:10:46.679 unquote fracturing conservative base. Right, 00:10:46.679 --> 00:10:48.419 because they assume the voters will follow the 00:10:48.419 --> 00:10:50.740 ideological argument. Exactly. But the actual 00:10:50.740 --> 00:10:52.840 polling data shows that only seven percent of 00:10:52.840 --> 00:10:56.450 Republicans are in that actively It is a textbook 00:10:56.450 --> 00:10:59.870 example of a reality distortion field. Analysts 00:10:59.870 --> 00:11:03.070 get distracted by a small, incredibly noisy minority 00:11:03.070 --> 00:11:05.870 of media personalities and mistake them for a 00:11:05.870 --> 00:11:08.789 genuine shift in the electorate. And this distortion 00:11:08.789 --> 00:11:11.330 extends directly into how voters view their own 00:11:11.330 --> 00:11:14.460 economic reality. Despite the fact that gas is 00:11:14.460 --> 00:11:17.500 nearing $4 nationally and inflation is compounding, 00:11:17.899 --> 00:11:20.899 the polling shows a staggering 73 % of Maggie 00:11:20.899 --> 00:11:24.299 voters expect their personal finances to significantly 00:11:24.299 --> 00:11:28.440 improve over the next five years. 73%. There 00:11:28.440 --> 00:11:31.519 is literally zero macroeconomic data supporting 00:11:31.519 --> 00:11:34.740 that level of financial optimism. None. The optimism 00:11:34.740 --> 00:11:37.600 is entirely decoupled from the CPI or the cost 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:39.980 of crude oil. It is fundamentally tied to their 00:11:39.980 --> 00:11:41.940 faith in the political leader. But this raises 00:11:41.940 --> 00:11:44.360 an important question. What's that? If the entire 00:11:44.360 --> 00:11:46.379 structural integrity of a political party is 00:11:46.379 --> 00:11:49.519 based on a single personality rather than a repeatable 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:52.360 ideological platform, what happens to that party 00:11:52.360 --> 00:11:55.580 infrastructure in 2028 when that specific individual 00:11:55.580 --> 00:11:57.820 is no longer on the ballot? That is the looming 00:11:57.820 --> 00:12:00.639 crisis for them. Because figures like JD Vance 00:12:00.639 --> 00:12:03.360 are clearly positioning themselves to be the 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:06.059 next frontman. And he's adopting all the correct 00:12:06.059 --> 00:12:09.120 policy positions. But if the analogy holds, he's 00:12:09.120 --> 00:12:12.139 basically a cover band. Wow, yeah, a cover band. 00:12:12.179 --> 00:12:15.000 He doesn't possess the specific, idiosyncratic 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.139 cult of personality that built the fandom in 00:12:17.139 --> 00:12:19.639 the first place. You can't just inherit a movement 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:22.259 that is based entirely on personal charisma. 00:12:22.379 --> 00:12:24.700 You really can't. The structural vulnerability 00:12:24.700 --> 00:12:27.830 of the party is incredibly high right now. And 00:12:27.830 --> 00:12:31.009 that vulnerability is compounded by how deeply 00:12:31.009 --> 00:12:33.750 disconnected the party leadership is from the 00:12:33.750 --> 00:12:36.009 actual economic realities of their constituents. 00:12:36.190 --> 00:12:38.110 Let's dig into that disconnect because the hedge 00:12:38.110 --> 00:12:40.649 eye data on diesel prices is just terrifying. 00:12:40.850 --> 00:12:43.389 We mentioned regular gas earlier but diesel is 00:12:43.389 --> 00:12:45.929 the actual lifeblood of the supply chain. Diesel 00:12:45.929 --> 00:12:48.370 just hit five dollars and seven cents a gallon. 00:12:48.509 --> 00:12:50.669 And the significance of diesel cannot be overstated 00:12:50.669 --> 00:12:52.639 here. According to the supply chain analysis, 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:56.039 diesel fuel accounts for 30 to 40 percent of 00:12:56.039 --> 00:12:58.799 the total operating costs for commercial trucking 00:12:58.799 --> 00:13:02.899 fleets. Yeah. Every time that price spikes, it 00:13:02.899 --> 00:13:05.399 acts as a universal tax on the entire economy. 00:13:06.139 --> 00:13:08.879 You may not drive an 18 -wheeler, but that cost 00:13:08.879 --> 00:13:11.220 is baked into the price of the apples you buy, 00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:13.940 the lumber for a new house, and the shoes you 00:13:13.940 --> 00:13:16.929 order online. So everyday Americans are absorbing 00:13:16.929 --> 00:13:19.750 a 30 to 40 percent hidden tax on their daily 00:13:19.750 --> 00:13:22.649 lives. Meanwhile, the people tasked with managing 00:13:22.649 --> 00:13:25.009 this crisis are living in a completely different 00:13:25.009 --> 00:13:27.669 universe. Completely. Electoral vote points out 00:13:27.669 --> 00:13:31.309 that 73 % of the United States Senate are millionaires. 00:13:31.490 --> 00:13:34.169 Take Senator Jim Justice, for example. He represents 00:13:34.169 --> 00:13:38.269 West Virginia. His estimated net worth is $664 00:13:38.269 --> 00:13:42.370 million. $664 million. Yes. He reportedly commutes 00:13:42.370 --> 00:13:44.789 to Washington DC for votes on a private jet, 00:13:45.029 --> 00:13:47.750 a flight that takes about 40 minutes. Contrast 00:13:47.750 --> 00:13:49.429 that with the people he actually represents. 00:13:49.710 --> 00:13:51.750 The median household net worth in West Virginia 00:13:51.750 --> 00:13:55.669 is roughly $18 ,000. The material reality of 00:13:55.669 --> 00:13:58.330 the governing body has zero overlap with the 00:13:58.330 --> 00:14:01.529 governed. So with a massive energy shock, compounding 00:14:01.529 --> 00:14:04.929 inflation, and a choked supply chain, what is 00:14:04.929 --> 00:14:06.970 this millionaire Senate desperately focused on? 00:14:07.029 --> 00:14:09.190 They aren't debating energy independence. They 00:14:09.190 --> 00:14:12.070 aren't fixing supply chain logistics. They are 00:14:12.070 --> 00:14:15.110 tied up in a bitter intra -party fight over a 00:14:15.110 --> 00:14:18.230 piece of legislation called the SAVE Act. Right. 00:14:18.490 --> 00:14:20.809 And the structural premise of the SAVE Act is 00:14:20.809 --> 00:14:23.129 a requirement that individuals provide physical 00:14:23.129 --> 00:14:26.110 proof of citizenship in order to register or 00:14:26.110 --> 00:14:28.570 re -register to vote in federal elections. But 00:14:28.570 --> 00:14:30.990 the politics surrounding it are totally chaotic. 00:14:31.429 --> 00:14:33.730 The president is pushing the bill, but he also 00:14:33.730 --> 00:14:36.570 wants it to include a near total ban on absentee 00:14:36.570 --> 00:14:39.350 voting, plus provisions that would ban transgender 00:14:39.350 --> 00:14:41.870 girls from competing in female sports. Which, 00:14:41.929 --> 00:14:43.730 you know, have absolutely nothing to do with 00:14:43.730 --> 00:14:46.490 election security. Exactly. And it's tearing 00:14:46.490 --> 00:14:48.830 the Republican caucus apart. Senators like Lisa 00:14:48.830 --> 00:14:51.210 Murkowski, Tom... Tillis and Mitch McConnell 00:14:51.210 --> 00:14:53.769 are openly opposing it. Senator John Thune is 00:14:53.769 --> 00:14:56.090 technically advancing it. But the analysis suggests 00:14:56.090 --> 00:14:58.570 he is just putting on a performative, weeks -long 00:14:58.570 --> 00:15:00.970 show to demonstrate loyalty to the president. 00:15:01.110 --> 00:15:03.190 Yeah, fully knowing the votes to pass it do not 00:15:03.190 --> 00:15:05.409 exist. Right. It's totally legislative theater. 00:15:05.730 --> 00:15:07.590 So what does this all mean? It's like a carpenter 00:15:07.590 --> 00:15:10.490 to nod back to St. Joseph, using a sledgehammer 00:15:10.490 --> 00:15:13.210 to fix a cabinet, but just smashing their own 00:15:13.210 --> 00:15:16.070 thumb. Aren't they actually going to disenfranchise 00:15:16.070 --> 00:15:18.759 their own voters with this? This raises an important 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:21.299 question, and we really need to look at the unintended 00:15:21.299 --> 00:15:24.460 consequences neutrally here. Because the demographic 00:15:24.460 --> 00:15:27.779 data heavily supports that conclusion. If the 00:15:27.779 --> 00:15:30.600 law requires physical proof of citizenship, meaning 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:33.200 an original birth certificate or a U .S. passport, 00:15:33.659 --> 00:15:36.019 just to register to vote, who gets filtered out? 00:15:36.240 --> 00:15:38.899 Well, my immediate thought is the cost. A U .S. 00:15:39.080 --> 00:15:42.240 passport costs $165 plus the time to go to a 00:15:42.240 --> 00:15:44.559 federal facility, get the photos, process the 00:15:44.559 --> 00:15:47.320 paperwork. Doesn't that functionally mean that 00:15:47.320 --> 00:15:49.720 affluent blue state voters who travel internationally 00:15:49.720 --> 00:15:52.139 are significantly more likely to have the necessary 00:15:52.139 --> 00:15:54.860 documents on hand? Absolutely. The dozen states 00:15:54.860 --> 00:15:56.580 with the lowest percentage of passport holders 00:15:56.580 --> 00:15:59.460 are largely poorer rural states that reliably 00:15:59.460 --> 00:16:02.659 vote Republican. By mandating these specific 00:16:02.659 --> 00:16:06.080 documents, the party is erecting a massive bureaucratic 00:16:06.080 --> 00:16:08.740 and financial hurdle that actively filters out 00:16:08.740 --> 00:16:12.019 their own base. It's crazy. Furthermore, the 00:16:12.019 --> 00:16:15.159 analysis shows that rural men, a core conservative 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:18.159 demographic, are statistically the least likely 00:16:18.159 --> 00:16:21.539 group to possess immediate physical copies of 00:16:21.539 --> 00:16:23.720 their birth certificates. Wait, it goes further 00:16:23.720 --> 00:16:25.779 than that, too. Think about the mechanics of 00:16:25.779 --> 00:16:28.240 name changes. If you were a married woman who 00:16:28.240 --> 00:16:31.279 took your spouse's last name, your current legal 00:16:31.279 --> 00:16:33.200 identity doesn't match your birth certificate. 00:16:33.419 --> 00:16:36.360 Yes. The electoral vote data estimates that approximately 00:16:36.360 --> 00:16:39.000 70 million married women in the United States 00:16:39.000 --> 00:16:41.039 do not have a birth certificate that matches 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:43.740 their current legal name. 70 million. For those 00:16:43.740 --> 00:16:46.039 voters, simply producing a birth certificate 00:16:46.039 --> 00:16:48.480 is insufficient under this type of legislation. 00:16:48.840 --> 00:16:50.940 They would be required to produce a chain of 00:16:50.940 --> 00:16:53.419 official documentation, such as marriage licenses 00:16:53.419 --> 00:16:56.580 or court orders, proving the legal name change. 00:16:56.700 --> 00:16:59.639 Wow. And sociological studies indicate that women 00:16:59.639 --> 00:17:02.000 in conservative red states are much more likely 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:04.940 to adopt their husbands. name than women in progressive 00:17:04.940 --> 00:17:07.839 blue states. Okay, so the governing party is 00:17:07.839 --> 00:17:11.329 burning weeks of legislative time. amidst a global 00:17:11.329 --> 00:17:14.930 energy crisis, to aggressively push a bill that 00:17:14.930 --> 00:17:17.650 would disproportionately disenfranchise rural 00:17:17.650 --> 00:17:20.410 men and conservative married women. That's what 00:17:20.410 --> 00:17:23.170 the data suggests. It is a stunning level of 00:17:23.170 --> 00:17:25.430 political self -sabotage. It really demonstrates 00:17:25.430 --> 00:17:28.309 what happens when a political ecosystem is driven 00:17:28.309 --> 00:17:31.869 entirely by performative loyalty to a personality 00:17:31.869 --> 00:17:35.450 rather than strategic policy analysis. And this 00:17:35.450 --> 00:17:37.289 brings us to a breaking point for the public. 00:17:37.579 --> 00:17:40.420 We have a global economy choking on supply chain 00:17:40.420 --> 00:17:43.259 disruptions, political parties operating on pure 00:17:43.259 --> 00:17:46.420 fandom, and millionaire lawmakers utterly disconnected 00:17:46.420 --> 00:17:49.259 from the consequences of their own bills. Traditional 00:17:49.259 --> 00:17:51.619 polling is failing to capture reality because 00:17:51.619 --> 00:17:54.119 voters are answering surveys based on team loyalty 00:17:54.119 --> 00:17:56.720 rather than economic facts. It's cheap talk. 00:17:56.900 --> 00:17:59.940 So where do we actually find accurate data about 00:17:59.940 --> 00:18:01.680 what is going to happen next? People are increasingly 00:18:01.680 --> 00:18:03.380 putting their money where their mouth is. When 00:18:03.380 --> 00:18:05.859 institutional trust evaporates, decentralized 00:18:05.859 --> 00:18:08.579 systems step in to fill the void. We are seeing 00:18:08.579 --> 00:18:11.220 a massive surge in the use of prediction markets 00:18:11.220 --> 00:18:14.019 right now. Markets like Kalshi. And to be clear, 00:18:14.240 --> 00:18:16.440 this isn't just sports betting. People are using 00:18:16.440 --> 00:18:18.660 these platforms to trade financial contracts 00:18:18.660 --> 00:18:21.920 based on real world political and economic outcomes. 00:18:22.660 --> 00:18:25.880 For example, Kalshi currently has the March CPI 00:18:25.880 --> 00:18:28.819 inflation number tracking right at that 3 .2 00:18:28.819 --> 00:18:31.519 percent mark. You can also log on and buy shares 00:18:31.519 --> 00:18:33.680 on whether Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:35.799 will be the Democratic vice presidential nominee 00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:39.319 in 2028. The mechanism of how those shares are 00:18:39.319 --> 00:18:42.420 priced is crucial to understand here. If Gretchen 00:18:42.420 --> 00:18:44.579 Whitmer's contract is currently trading at 11 00:18:44.579 --> 00:18:47.440 cents, it means you pay 11 cents for a share. 00:18:48.119 --> 00:18:49.960 If she becomes the nominee, the contract pays 00:18:49.960 --> 00:18:52.900 out exactly $1, netting you an 89 -cent profit. 00:18:53.140 --> 00:18:55.619 If she doesn't, the contract goes to zero and 00:18:55.619 --> 00:18:58.700 you lose your investment. Therefore, that 11 00:18:58.700 --> 00:19:01.759 -cent price tag functions as a real -time crowdsourced 00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:04.440 probability. The market currently believes she 00:19:04.440 --> 00:19:06.900 has an 11 % chance of securing the nomination. 00:19:07.380 --> 00:19:09.799 But the political establishment is aggressively 00:19:09.799 --> 00:19:12.000 trying to shut this down. The attorney general 00:19:12.000 --> 00:19:14.619 of Arizona, Chris Mays, has actually filed criminal 00:19:14.619 --> 00:19:17.200 charges against Kalshi. Yeah, she's arguing that 00:19:17.200 --> 00:19:19.660 the platform is operating an illegal gambling 00:19:19.660 --> 00:19:22.400 ring rather than a legitimate financial futures 00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:25.039 market. Which is just a fascinating contradiction 00:19:25.039 --> 00:19:27.819 to me. Think about it. If a Wall Street trader 00:19:27.819 --> 00:19:30.619 spends months studying global weather patterns, 00:19:31.039 --> 00:19:33.720 predicts a massive drought in the Midwest, and 00:19:33.720 --> 00:19:36.940 buys futures contracts and soybeans, we call 00:19:36.940 --> 00:19:39.779 that savvy high finance, its respected market 00:19:39.779 --> 00:19:42.440 behavior. Absolutely. But if an analyst spends 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:45.519 months studying demographic shifts and polling 00:19:45.519 --> 00:19:48.279 data, predicts a political drought for a specific 00:19:48.279 --> 00:19:51.720 party, and buys a futures contract on an election 00:19:51.720 --> 00:19:54.000 outcome, suddenly the state calls it illegal 00:19:54.000 --> 00:19:57.549 gambling. It is the exact same underlying mechanism. 00:19:57.869 --> 00:20:00.230 You're deploying capital based on the forecasted 00:20:00.230 --> 00:20:02.950 probability of a future event. The reason analysts 00:20:02.950 --> 00:20:04.990 and pundits are increasingly fascinated by these 00:20:04.990 --> 00:20:08.670 platforms despite the legal pushback is their 00:20:08.670 --> 00:20:11.289 unparalleled ability to strip away the noise. 00:20:11.650 --> 00:20:14.529 When a voter is contacted by a pollster, there 00:20:14.529 --> 00:20:18.029 is zero cost to lying. There is no penalty for 00:20:18.029 --> 00:20:20.390 giving an answer that aligns with your political 00:20:20.390 --> 00:20:23.609 fandom rather than your actual belief. As you 00:20:23.609 --> 00:20:26.490 said, it is cheap talk. But when a participant 00:20:26.490 --> 00:20:28.750 has to risk their own hard -earned capital on 00:20:28.750 --> 00:20:32.170 an outcome, the performative grandstanding vanishes. 00:20:32.430 --> 00:20:36.089 Skin in the game forces honesty. Exactly. Decentralized 00:20:36.089 --> 00:20:37.990 prediction markets are functioning as the new 00:20:37.990 --> 00:20:40.970 oracle because they aggregate the cold calculated 00:20:40.970 --> 00:20:43.950 logic of thousands of individuals who are financially 00:20:43.950 --> 00:20:46.769 incentivized to be right. The market price cuts 00:20:46.769 --> 00:20:49.450 right through the reality distortion field. We 00:20:49.450 --> 00:20:51.289 have covered an incredible amount of ground today 00:20:51.289 --> 00:20:54.230 and the through line is truly striking. We started 00:20:54.230 --> 00:20:56.829 by looking at the deep history of St. Joseph's 00:20:56.829 --> 00:20:59.710 Day and the human desire to build communal stability 00:20:59.710 --> 00:21:02.390 and find a protector during a devastating medieval 00:21:02.390 --> 00:21:05.109 drought. Right. We mapped that historical crisis 00:21:05.109 --> 00:21:08.150 onto our own modern vulnerabilities. A global 00:21:08.150 --> 00:21:10.970 energy grid currently being choked off by asymmetric 00:21:10.970 --> 00:21:13.829 drone warfare in the Strait of Hormuz, we examine 00:21:13.829 --> 00:21:15.950 how modern political parties have morphed into 00:21:15.950 --> 00:21:19.029 personality -driven fandoms that completely distort 00:21:19.029 --> 00:21:22.569 economic realities. We saw how insulated millionaire 00:21:22.569 --> 00:21:25.130 lawmakers are spending their time pushing performative 00:21:25.130 --> 00:21:28.609 legislation like the Save -E Act, which ironically 00:21:28.609 --> 00:21:30.710 targets the voting access of their own base. 00:21:31.220 --> 00:21:34.039 And finally, we looked at how the public is abandoning 00:21:34.039 --> 00:21:36.200 traditional polling and turning to the brutal 00:21:36.200 --> 00:21:39.140 financial honesty of prediction markets to find 00:21:39.140 --> 00:21:41.640 the actual truth. It is a profound shift in how 00:21:41.640 --> 00:21:44.400 we process information, and I want to leave you, 00:21:44.440 --> 00:21:46.400 the listener, with final thought to mull over 00:21:46.400 --> 00:21:49.539 as you navigate this landscape. We began today 00:21:49.539 --> 00:21:52.640 by discussing St. Joseph. The defining characteristic 00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:55.680 of his cultural legacy is quiet strength. He 00:21:55.680 --> 00:21:57.500 is celebrated for his actions, his grounding, 00:21:57.559 --> 00:22:01.059 and his silence in a chaotic world. Today, our 00:22:01.059 --> 00:22:04.200 modern era is dominated by incredibly loud political 00:22:04.200 --> 00:22:06.859 grandstanding. We are constantly surrounded by 00:22:06.859 --> 00:22:10.359 reality distortion fields and noisy 7 % minorities 00:22:10.359 --> 00:22:12.599 who command the media narrative. It is an environment 00:22:12.599 --> 00:22:15.099 designed be deafening. It really is. But what 00:22:15.099 --> 00:22:17.460 if the most accurate indicator of our future 00:22:17.460 --> 00:22:20.900 isn't found in the loud speeches? the viral media 00:22:20.900 --> 00:22:24.039 outrage, or the screaming pundits. What if the 00:22:24.039 --> 00:22:27.019 actual truth is found in the quiet, anonymous 00:22:27.019 --> 00:22:29.259 bets that everyday people are making on platforms 00:22:29.259 --> 00:22:31.640 like Kalshi? As we move forward through this 00:22:31.640 --> 00:22:34.700 era of profound institutional distrust, ask yourself, 00:22:35.180 --> 00:22:37.039 which data point do you actually trust more, 00:22:37.539 --> 00:22:39.619 the performative answer a voter gives a pollster 00:22:39.619 --> 00:22:42.359 for free, or the quiet, calculated decision of 00:22:42.359 --> 00:22:44.460 where they place their own money? What a brilliant 00:22:44.460 --> 00:22:46.599 question to end on. Thank you so much for joining 00:22:46.599 --> 00:22:49.279 us on this deep dive. In a world full of manufactured 00:22:49.279 --> 00:22:51.779 noise, keep questioning the narrative, look past 00:22:51.779 --> 00:22:53.759 the grandstanding, and keep searching for the 00:22:53.759 --> 00:22:55.299 quiet data. We'll catch you next time.