WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.040 Imagine paying five bucks a gallon for diesel, 00:00:04.459 --> 00:00:06.700 watching your local TV station get threatened 00:00:06.700 --> 00:00:09.259 with this massive government blackout, and then 00:00:09.259 --> 00:00:12.099 seeing a crazy 18 -point political earthquake 00:00:12.099 --> 00:00:15.939 in a rural election. All in, like the exact same 00:00:15.939 --> 00:00:18.539 week. Yeah, and the wild thing is that is not 00:00:18.539 --> 00:00:21.899 a hypothetical scenario at all. That is the actual 00:00:21.899 --> 00:00:24.879 literal anatomy of the geopolitical shock we're 00:00:24.879 --> 00:00:27.480 living through right now. Right. So welcome to 00:00:27.480 --> 00:00:29.980 the deep dive. If you're listening to this, you're 00:00:29.980 --> 00:00:32.439 probably, you know, trying to make sense of a 00:00:32.439 --> 00:00:34.320 world that feels like it's just spinning in a 00:00:34.320 --> 00:00:36.240 dozen different directions at once. Oh, absolutely. 00:00:36.460 --> 00:00:38.340 It's overwhelming. It really is. And to help 00:00:38.340 --> 00:00:40.299 you do that, we're looking at a pretty fascinating 00:00:40.299 --> 00:00:42.740 stack of sources today. We've got a political 00:00:42.740 --> 00:00:46.039 newsletter, electoral vote news from March 18th, 00:00:46.039 --> 00:00:48.759 2026, and a financial update from the weekly 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:51.000 market recap from March 16th. And our mission 00:00:51.000 --> 00:00:53.219 today is really to trace the ripple effects of 00:00:53.219 --> 00:00:55.979 this massive systemic shock. I mean, we are looking 00:00:55.979 --> 00:00:58.579 at the ongoing conflict with Iran, but we aren't 00:00:58.579 --> 00:01:00.579 just looking at the military movements. All right, 00:01:00.579 --> 00:01:03.100 because it's so much bigger than that. Exactly. 00:01:03.159 --> 00:01:06.500 We are going to follow this crisis as it like 00:01:06.500 --> 00:01:09.040 crashes through global financial markets, spikes 00:01:09.040 --> 00:01:11.459 the price of the goods you buy, triggers these 00:01:11.459 --> 00:01:13.980 really intense domestic political battles over 00:01:13.980 --> 00:01:17.239 free speech. And finally, it lands right inside 00:01:17.239 --> 00:01:20.109 local voting booths in Illinois. Yes. Okay, let's 00:01:20.109 --> 00:01:22.450 unpack this. Because the situation overseas is 00:01:22.450 --> 00:01:25.170 escalating really fast, and the mechanical impacts 00:01:25.170 --> 00:01:27.430 are just, well, they're immediate. They are. 00:01:27.569 --> 00:01:29.489 The Strait of Hormuz is officially closed to 00:01:29.489 --> 00:01:32.269 Western -aligned tankers, and the U .S. is deploying 00:01:32.269 --> 00:01:35.390 additional military assets to the Persian Gulf 00:01:35.390 --> 00:01:39.030 right now. And for anyone who needs a quick geography 00:01:39.030 --> 00:01:41.930 refresher, the Strait of Hormuz isn't just another 00:01:41.930 --> 00:01:45.159 waterway. No, it's incredibly vital. It is one 00:01:45.159 --> 00:01:47.439 of the world's most critical maritime choke points. 00:01:47.819 --> 00:01:50.159 Roughly 20 % of the world's total global oil 00:01:50.159 --> 00:01:52.519 consumption passes through that one narrow stretch 00:01:52.519 --> 00:01:54.739 of water. And when a choke point like that closes, 00:01:55.000 --> 00:01:57.060 the global supply chain basically has a heart 00:01:57.060 --> 00:01:59.680 attack. I mean, tankers either can't get through 00:01:59.680 --> 00:02:03.180 or their insurance premiums just skyrocket to 00:02:03.180 --> 00:02:05.980 the point where moving the cargo becomes completely 00:02:05.980 --> 00:02:08.960 financially ruinous. But before we even get to 00:02:08.960 --> 00:02:11.560 the economic fallout, we kind of have to look 00:02:11.560 --> 00:02:14.319 at the sheer chaos this is causing within the 00:02:14.319 --> 00:02:17.759 U .S. administration itself. There is a profound 00:02:17.759 --> 00:02:20.819 fracturing of the narrative at the very highest 00:02:20.819 --> 00:02:23.000 levels of leadership right now. Yeah. And we 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:26.020 have a massive, very high profile resignation 00:02:26.020 --> 00:02:29.039 that illustrates that fracture perfectly. Joe 00:02:29.039 --> 00:02:31.300 Kent. Right. So he's the director of the National 00:02:31.300 --> 00:02:34.419 Counterterrorism Center, a known Trump ally and 00:02:34.469 --> 00:02:37.449 a retired Green Beret with, I think, 11 tours 00:02:37.449 --> 00:02:39.469 in Iran. 11, yeah, that's right. Right, so he 00:02:39.469 --> 00:02:42.949 just resigned in this incredibly fiery protest. 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:46.379 over this Iran war. And we really need to impartially 00:02:46.379 --> 00:02:48.699 look at the clashing perspectives here because 00:02:48.699 --> 00:02:51.240 the rhetoric is incredibly intense. It reveals 00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:54.099 a total lack of consensus. I mean, Kent is stating 00:02:54.099 --> 00:02:56.500 unequivocally that there is no imminent threat 00:02:56.500 --> 00:02:58.759 from Iran to justify this conflict. This is a 00:02:58.759 --> 00:03:00.740 huge statement. It is. And he took it a step 00:03:00.740 --> 00:03:03.159 further. He publicly blamed Israel for, quote, 00:03:03.719 --> 00:03:07.129 manufacturing the war. Yeah. And our source specifically 00:03:07.129 --> 00:03:09.629 notes that Kent's claim carries shades of anti 00:03:09.629 --> 00:03:11.949 -Semitic tropes, you know, framing a foreign 00:03:11.949 --> 00:03:14.870 ally as the secret architect of American military 00:03:14.870 --> 00:03:17.129 involvement. Well, and the response from the 00:03:17.129 --> 00:03:20.189 White House was just as explosive. I mean, President 00:03:20.189 --> 00:03:23.750 Trump fired back, calling Kent a, quote, weak, 00:03:24.090 --> 00:03:26.909 crazed egomaniac. Yeah, the wording was pretty 00:03:26.909 --> 00:03:29.210 intense. Very intense. And he didn't stop at 00:03:29.210 --> 00:03:32.610 Kent. The president is publicly blaming his own 00:03:32.610 --> 00:03:35.009 director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, 00:03:35.449 --> 00:03:37.710 for even hiring Kent in the first place. Right. 00:03:37.810 --> 00:03:39.969 So this isn't just a polite disagreement over 00:03:39.969 --> 00:03:42.810 policy. This is the intelligence apparatus and 00:03:42.810 --> 00:03:44.830 the executive branch just having a completely 00:03:44.830 --> 00:03:47.310 public meltdown. Which, you know, bleeds directly 00:03:47.310 --> 00:03:50.310 into the military strategy or honestly the lack 00:03:50.310 --> 00:03:53.030 thereof. Because according to leaks coming out 00:03:53.030 --> 00:03:55.990 of the Pentagon to NBC News, officials are basically 00:03:55.990 --> 00:03:58.750 admitting they have no clear unified plan. That's 00:03:58.750 --> 00:04:00.879 terrifying. Yeah, they are simultaneously planning 00:04:00.879 --> 00:04:04.319 moving forward scenarios, which means escalation 00:04:04.319 --> 00:04:06.580 and further deployment and exit ramp scenarios 00:04:06.580 --> 00:04:09.000 to deescalate at the same time. Let me stop you 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:11.819 there, because... planning to attack and retreat 00:04:11.819 --> 00:04:15.180 at the exact same time is a complete mechanical 00:04:15.180 --> 00:04:18.279 nightmare. It really is. It's like it's like 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:20.839 an architect trying to build a penthouse and 00:04:20.839 --> 00:04:23.579 demolish the foundation of a skyscraper on the 00:04:23.579 --> 00:04:25.660 exact same afternoon. That is a great way to 00:04:25.660 --> 00:04:27.300 put it. You aren't going to get a building. You're 00:04:27.300 --> 00:04:29.139 just going to get a pile of rubble. I mean, it 00:04:29.139 --> 00:04:32.319 completely undermines any sort of strategic leverage. 00:04:32.459 --> 00:04:34.120 And the international community is certainly 00:04:34.120 --> 00:04:36.939 reading it that way. I mean, French general Michel 00:04:36.939 --> 00:04:40.149 Yacovleff actually went on television and bluntly 00:04:40.149 --> 00:04:43.329 called the president, Le Capitan du Titanic. 00:04:43.529 --> 00:04:46.269 Oh, wow. The captain of the Titanic. Exactly. 00:04:46.610 --> 00:04:49.029 When allied military leaders are comparing your 00:04:49.029 --> 00:04:52.470 administration to a sinking ship on global television, 00:04:53.089 --> 00:04:56.110 you have pretty much lost control of the geopolitical 00:04:56.110 --> 00:04:58.850 narrative. Yeah, absolutely. So let's bring this 00:04:58.850 --> 00:05:01.370 home to you, the listener, because while the 00:05:01.370 --> 00:05:03.670 Pentagon is trying to figure out if it's building 00:05:03.670 --> 00:05:06.769 or demolishing, the global economy is taking 00:05:06.769 --> 00:05:09.529 a massive hit. Huge hit. The International Energy 00:05:09.529 --> 00:05:12.889 Agency tried to step in. They coordinated a release 00:05:12.889 --> 00:05:16.980 of strategic oil reserves. The markets are looking 00:05:16.980 --> 00:05:19.160 at that as just putting a temporary band -aid 00:05:19.160 --> 00:05:21.779 on a gaping wound. Yeah, a very temporary one. 00:05:22.120 --> 00:05:24.759 Right. So equities are drifting lower and treasury 00:05:24.759 --> 00:05:27.240 yields are rising because everyone is terrified 00:05:27.240 --> 00:05:29.560 of inflation returning. What's fascinating here 00:05:29.560 --> 00:05:32.240 is how logically the financial markets are reacting 00:05:32.240 --> 00:05:35.319 to this specific type of uncertainty. Investors 00:05:35.319 --> 00:05:38.680 are looking at the board and making very calculated 00:05:38.680 --> 00:05:42.019 defensive moves. They are retreating from cyclical 00:05:42.019 --> 00:05:44.560 exposures, but they are holding tightly onto 00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:47.529 structural like artificial intelligence. Wait, 00:05:47.569 --> 00:05:49.589 let's break that down for me and for anyone whose 00:05:49.589 --> 00:05:52.550 eyes just glazed over at treasury yields and 00:05:52.550 --> 00:05:55.810 cyclical exposure. Sure. Why are yields rising 00:05:55.810 --> 00:05:58.350 and what is the actual difference between cyclical 00:05:58.350 --> 00:06:00.550 and structural? Okay, let's take the yields first. 00:06:01.009 --> 00:06:03.009 When investors fear that inflation is going to 00:06:03.009 --> 00:06:05.490 rise like right now because energy prices are 00:06:05.490 --> 00:06:08.810 spiking due to a war. They demand higher interest 00:06:08.810 --> 00:06:11.649 rates, or yields, to lend money to the government. 00:06:11.829 --> 00:06:14.069 OK, that makes sense. They need that higher return 00:06:14.069 --> 00:06:16.269 so their money doesn't lose its purchasing power. 00:06:16.990 --> 00:06:19.769 Now, as for the stock market, cyclical exposures 00:06:19.769 --> 00:06:22.670 are companies that rely on a smooth, humming 00:06:22.670 --> 00:06:25.089 economy to make money. Like what kind of companies? 00:06:25.290 --> 00:06:30.089 Think airlines, hotels, or luxury goods. If inflation 00:06:30.089 --> 00:06:32.829 hits and people stop spending, those cyclical 00:06:32.829 --> 00:06:35.449 companies just tank. So investors are dumping 00:06:35.449 --> 00:06:38.709 those. but they are keeping their money in artificial 00:06:38.709 --> 00:06:42.220 intelligence. Why is AI different? Because AI 00:06:42.220 --> 00:06:45.459 is considered a structural theme. It is a fundamental 00:06:45.459 --> 00:06:47.740 technological shift that is happening regardless 00:06:47.740 --> 00:06:50.019 of whether the economy is booming or in a total 00:06:50.019 --> 00:06:52.579 recession. Oh, I see. Yeah. Companies feel they 00:06:52.579 --> 00:06:54.939 have to invest in AI just to survive the next 00:06:54.939 --> 00:06:57.800 decade. It's not an optional luxury. It's structural. 00:06:58.019 --> 00:07:00.319 So the money flows out of the vulnerable cyclical 00:07:00.319 --> 00:07:02.339 sectors and basically hides in the structural 00:07:02.339 --> 00:07:04.259 ones. And at the same time, we are seeing the 00:07:04.259 --> 00:07:06.160 U .S. dollar strengthening significantly, right? 00:07:06.180 --> 00:07:09.120 Yes, very much so. Which makes sense. When the 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:12.740 world gets scary, Global investors buy dollars. 00:07:12.980 --> 00:07:15.920 It's like the ultimate financial bunker. And 00:07:15.920 --> 00:07:18.980 since the US is a net energy exporter, the dollar 00:07:18.980 --> 00:07:21.360 gets an extra boost when global energy markets 00:07:21.360 --> 00:07:23.459 panic. Exactly. But, you know, you mentioned 00:07:23.459 --> 00:07:27.379 inflation fears and that risk isn't abstract. 00:07:27.480 --> 00:07:29.819 It's showing up at the pump right now. Oh, absolutely. 00:07:30.899 --> 00:07:33.279 Our sources note that regular unleaded gas is 00:07:33.279 --> 00:07:37.339 up like 80 cents in a month. But the real kicker. 00:07:37.389 --> 00:07:40.050 And the one that actually drives inflation is 00:07:40.050 --> 00:07:43.230 diesel. Yeah, diesel is nearing $5 a gallon. 00:07:43.629 --> 00:07:46.569 That's an increase of $1 .34 in just one month. 00:07:46.910 --> 00:07:49.110 That is wild. And you might be listening to this 00:07:49.110 --> 00:07:51.410 thinking, well, I drive a small sedan or an EV, 00:07:51.589 --> 00:07:53.129 so I don't really care about the price of diesel. 00:07:53.250 --> 00:07:55.529 Right. A lot of people think that. But the massive 00:07:55.529 --> 00:07:58.029 big rig trucks that deliver your groceries, your 00:07:58.029 --> 00:08:00.410 clothes, materials for your house. They all run 00:08:00.410 --> 00:08:02.649 on diesel. The freight trains run on diesel. 00:08:03.470 --> 00:08:05.870 Exactly. When it costs the supply chain $1 .34 00:08:05.870 --> 00:08:09.329 more per gallon to move goods, they do not absorb 00:08:09.329 --> 00:08:11.930 that cost. They pass it directly to you at the 00:08:11.930 --> 00:08:14.639 checkout line. And that mechanism, that transmission 00:08:14.639 --> 00:08:17.459 of geopolitical conflict into domestic inflation, 00:08:18.100 --> 00:08:20.720 it creates immense political pressure. Oh, for 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:23.160 sure. When an administration faces a chaotic, 00:08:23.519 --> 00:08:25.860 expensive and increasingly unpopular foreign 00:08:25.860 --> 00:08:28.660 conflict, coupled with rising prices at home, 00:08:29.060 --> 00:08:32.000 their natural reflex is to look inward and attempt 00:08:32.000 --> 00:08:34.139 to aggressively manage the narrative. Right. 00:08:34.200 --> 00:08:36.279 And how do you manage the narrative when the 00:08:36.279 --> 00:08:38.679 news is universally bad? You try to force the 00:08:38.679 --> 00:08:41.080 news to change. Exactly. Which brings us to a 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:43.509 massive battle over free speech happening right 00:08:43.509 --> 00:08:46.250 here on the home front. Brendan Carr, the chair 00:08:46.250 --> 00:08:49.950 of the FCC, is actively threatening to pull the 00:08:49.950 --> 00:08:53.250 broadcast licenses of television stations that 00:08:53.250 --> 00:08:56.539 air news critical of the Iran war. Yeah. He is 00:08:56.539 --> 00:08:58.740 publicly labeling that critical coverage as, 00:08:58.740 --> 00:09:01.259 quote, distortions. And from a regulatory standpoint, 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:04.120 this is a profound stress test of the First Amendment. 00:09:04.299 --> 00:09:07.220 I mean, it is a government official using the 00:09:07.220 --> 00:09:09.679 weight of a federal agency to threaten the existence 00:09:09.679 --> 00:09:12.360 of media outlets based purely on their editorial 00:09:12.360 --> 00:09:14.919 stance on a foreign war. Let me push back on 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:16.620 this, though, because the logistics of what he's 00:09:16.620 --> 00:09:19.279 threatening are completely absurd. Yeah, mechanically, 00:09:19.279 --> 00:09:23.080 it's a mess. Does the FCC not understand how 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:26.919 television infrastructure actually works? Broadcast 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:29.200 licenses don't belong to the massive corporate 00:09:29.200 --> 00:09:31.799 networks in New York. They don't belong to ABC 00:09:31.799 --> 00:09:34.200 or CBS headquarters. They belong to the local 00:09:34.200 --> 00:09:37.000 affiliate stations. And that is the huge mechanical 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:40.360 hurdle here. To punish a national network, you 00:09:40.360 --> 00:09:43.039 can't just revoke a single national license. 00:09:43.799 --> 00:09:46.500 Because that doesn't exist. Right. So if Carr 00:09:46.500 --> 00:09:49.440 wants to punish CBS News for a segment they ran 00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:51.480 about the Iran conflict, he has to go after the 00:09:51.480 --> 00:09:53.799 local broadcast license in El Cuna, Pennsylvania. 00:09:54.159 --> 00:09:57.159 Exactly. And Peoria, Illinois. And Tallahassee, 00:09:57.259 --> 00:09:59.820 Florida. He would have to file hundreds of individual 00:09:59.820 --> 00:10:02.059 market -by -market lawsuits, which would tie 00:10:02.059 --> 00:10:05.059 the administration up in federal court for Yeah, 00:10:05.259 --> 00:10:07.759 it's mechanically impossible to execute a sudden 00:10:07.759 --> 00:10:09.600 blackout like that. Plus, our sources point out 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:12.639 a glaring hypocrisy here. I mean, Carr is exclusively 00:10:12.639 --> 00:10:15.299 threatening television stations. He is completely 00:10:15.299 --> 00:10:18.080 unconcerned with talk radio, which heavily features 00:10:18.080 --> 00:10:21.200 conservative commentary. And that selective outrage 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:24.500 is really the tell. When a government actor makes 00:10:24.500 --> 00:10:27.039 a threat, they lack their practical or legal 00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.460 authority to efficiently enforce, you have to 00:10:29.460 --> 00:10:32.720 ask what the actual weapon is. In Washington, 00:10:32.940 --> 00:10:35.460 the threat of regulation is often the tool itself. 00:10:35.740 --> 00:10:38.620 The source actually suggests Carr might be trying 00:10:38.620 --> 00:10:41.320 to use upcoming corporate mergers as leverage. 00:10:41.799 --> 00:10:44.159 Okay, so it's like a hostage situation. Essentially, 00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:47.440 yes. If a massive media conglomerate needs FCC 00:10:47.440 --> 00:10:50.759 approval to merge or buy new stations, Carr can 00:10:50.759 --> 00:10:53.059 hold up that approval until the network adopts 00:10:53.059 --> 00:10:55.320 his version of fairness in their news coverage. 00:10:55.539 --> 00:10:58.379 Precisely. Or, as the source bluntly notes, he 00:10:58.379 --> 00:11:00.740 might simply be performing for an audience of 00:11:00.740 --> 00:11:03.740 one. the president. By publicly attacking the 00:11:03.740 --> 00:11:06.340 media, he signals loyalty, regardless of whether 00:11:06.340 --> 00:11:08.940 he can actually pull a single license. But again, 00:11:08.980 --> 00:11:10.659 it feels like they're fighting the last war. 00:11:11.120 --> 00:11:14.320 Does the FCC even grasp that they have zero regulatory 00:11:14.320 --> 00:11:16.600 control over the Internet, over podcasts like 00:11:16.600 --> 00:11:19.039 this one or over social media? Probably not. 00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:22.179 The era where a single trusted voice like Walter 00:11:22.179 --> 00:11:25.000 Cronkite delivered the evening news to a captive 00:11:25.000 --> 00:11:29.000 nation is just long gone. The narrative is decentralized. 00:11:29.159 --> 00:11:31.159 You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube 00:11:31.159 --> 00:11:33.679 by threatening a local TV station in Peoria. 00:11:34.000 --> 00:11:35.860 No, you can't control the flow of information, 00:11:35.860 --> 00:11:38.539 but you can certainly flood the zone with anxiety. 00:11:38.620 --> 00:11:40.519 Yes, that's true. Look at the environment we've 00:11:40.519 --> 00:11:43.179 just mapped out, right? We have soaring inflation 00:11:43.179 --> 00:11:46.960 fears, a chaotic overseas conflict with internal 00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:50.320 administration meltdowns and high profile government 00:11:50.320 --> 00:11:53.019 threats against the press. That's a lot. It is. 00:11:53.220 --> 00:11:55.200 The vital question is, how does the everyday 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:57.879 voter respond to this exact pressure cooker when 00:11:57.879 --> 00:11:59.879 they step into the voting booth. Right, let's 00:11:59.879 --> 00:12:01.559 look at the hard data on that because the voters 00:12:01.559 --> 00:12:04.120 in Illinois just had their say in the March 17th 00:12:04.120 --> 00:12:07.019 primaries and the overwhelming theme across the 00:12:07.019 --> 00:12:10.620 board was extreme risk aversion. Yes. Voters 00:12:10.620 --> 00:12:12.980 were consistently choosing moderate establishment 00:12:12.980 --> 00:12:15.799 candidates over progressives. The goal seems 00:12:15.799 --> 00:12:19.659 to be minimizing risk to kind of defang the NBA 00:12:19.659 --> 00:12:23.100 movement by offering the most stable unshakable 00:12:23.100 --> 00:12:26.120 alternative possible. And the Senate race to 00:12:26.120 --> 00:12:28.480 replace Dick Durbin is really the prime example 00:12:28.480 --> 00:12:30.700 of this dynamic playing out in real time. Yeah, 00:12:30.700 --> 00:12:32.759 you had Juliana Stratton, backed by Governor 00:12:32.759 --> 00:12:35.120 Pritzker, defeating the more progressive Raja 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.620 Krishnamurthy. Now, Stratton isn't a far -left 00:12:37.620 --> 00:12:40.919 candidate, but the source does note she utilized 00:12:40.919 --> 00:12:43.820 a bit of a bomb -thrower edge to stand out. I 00:12:43.820 --> 00:12:45.440 feel like there was some edge there. There was 00:12:45.440 --> 00:12:47.899 even a Not Safe for Work campaign ad mentioned 00:12:47.899 --> 00:12:49.899 that would have been unthinkable a decade ago, 00:12:50.299 --> 00:12:52.279 but is apparently par for the course in modern 00:12:52.279 --> 00:12:55.279 political theater now. Pretty much. But beyond 00:12:55.279 --> 00:12:58.480 the ads, the historical context of her win is 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:01.480 staggering. If Stratton wins the general election 00:13:01.480 --> 00:13:04.620 in November, Illinois will make history. It will 00:13:04.620 --> 00:13:07.059 become the very first state to elect four black 00:13:07.059 --> 00:13:10.179 senators and only the second state after California 00:13:10.179 --> 00:13:12.659 to send two black women to the Senate. Which 00:13:12.659 --> 00:13:15.840 is a massive demographic milestone wrapped inside 00:13:15.840 --> 00:13:18.840 a broader strategy of selecting candidates perceived 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:21.679 as highly durable for a general election. Exactly. 00:13:21.740 --> 00:13:23.820 And that preference for the safer bet played 00:13:23.820 --> 00:13:25.960 out down the ballot in the House races, too. 00:13:26.200 --> 00:13:29.519 It did. In Illinois's second district, moderate 00:13:29.519 --> 00:13:32.460 Donna Miller defeated former representative Jesse 00:13:32.460 --> 00:13:35.220 Jackson Jr., who was attempting a political comeback. 00:13:35.399 --> 00:13:37.899 And in the eighth district, moderate Melissa 00:13:37.899 --> 00:13:40.879 L. Bean beat the progressive candidate, Junaid 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:43.580 Ahmed. Right. Here's where it gets really interesting 00:13:43.580 --> 00:13:45.120 though. Think back to what we just talked about 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:48.940 with the financial markets. When global chaos 00:13:48.940 --> 00:13:52.860 hit the straight of Hormuz closing, oil spiking 00:13:52.860 --> 00:13:55.139 investors retreated to the safe haven of the 00:13:55.139 --> 00:13:58.340 US dollar and structural tech stocks to protect 00:13:58.340 --> 00:14:01.279 their assets. When you look at the sociology 00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:04.080 of these Illinois primaries, Democratic voters 00:14:04.080 --> 00:14:06.460 are doing the exact same thing. That's a great 00:14:06.460 --> 00:14:08.379 point. They are looking at the chaos of the Iran 00:14:08.379 --> 00:14:10.799 War, the threat to their wallets from diesel 00:14:10.799 --> 00:14:14.000 prices and the instability in Washington, and 00:14:14.000 --> 00:14:16.879 they are retreating to the safe haven of moderate, 00:14:17.139 --> 00:14:19.519 low -risk candidates to protect their political 00:14:19.519 --> 00:14:23.019 assets. If we connect this to the bigger picture, 00:14:23.240 --> 00:14:25.399 that parallel between financial risk aversion 00:14:25.399 --> 00:14:27.700 and political risk aversion is profound. I mean, 00:14:27.720 --> 00:14:30.519 in times of systemic shock, people just crave 00:14:30.519 --> 00:14:33.039 predictability. An investor doesn't want to gamble 00:14:33.039 --> 00:14:35.600 on a volatile, cyclical stock when the economy 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:38.120 is shaking. And a voter doesn't want to gamble 00:14:38.120 --> 00:14:40.879 on a progressive disruptor when the geopolitical 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:43.580 order is shaking. They want the political equivalent 00:14:43.580 --> 00:14:46.220 of a treasury bond. They want stability. That 00:14:46.220 --> 00:14:49.059 is the perfect way to phrase it. They are buying 00:14:49.059 --> 00:14:51.440 political treasury bonds. Yeah. But the Illinois 00:14:51.440 --> 00:14:54.100 primary wasn't the only data point we got. There 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:57.679 were four special elections in deep red congressional 00:14:57.679 --> 00:15:00.320 districts across Pennsylvania, Virginia, and 00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:02.740 Louisiana. Right. And the Republicans went four 00:15:02.740 --> 00:15:05.500 and zero. They won all four seats. Which on the 00:15:05.500 --> 00:15:07.840 surface looks like a huge mandate for the conservative 00:15:07.840 --> 00:15:11.019 base. But the margins inside those wins tell 00:15:11.019 --> 00:15:14.259 a completely different, highly volatile story. 00:15:14.500 --> 00:15:16.720 Tell me about those margins. Well, these are 00:15:16.720 --> 00:15:19.039 ruby red districts that Donald Trump won easily 00:15:19.039 --> 00:15:22.169 in the past. Yet, in the Pennsylvania district 00:15:22.169 --> 00:15:26.429 specifically, there were massive 17 .6 and 18 00:15:26.429 --> 00:15:29.129 .4 point shifts toward the Democrats compared 00:15:29.129 --> 00:15:31.629 to Trump's past margins. Stop and think about 00:15:31.629 --> 00:15:34.029 the mechanics of an 18 point shift. It's huge. 00:15:34.169 --> 00:15:37.610 How does a district shift 18 points but still 00:15:37.610 --> 00:15:40.690 elect a Republican? It means one of two things 00:15:40.690 --> 00:15:43.350 happened. Or maybe a combination of both. Right. 00:15:43.549 --> 00:15:45.889 Either moderate Republicans look at the chaos 00:15:45.889 --> 00:15:47.889 and decided to stay home or cross the aisle. 00:15:48.519 --> 00:15:52.139 or the Democratic base turned out in staggering, 00:15:52.580 --> 00:15:55.460 unprecedented numbers for a random special election. 00:15:55.659 --> 00:15:58.259 And it reveals this really fascinating dichotomy. 00:15:58.500 --> 00:16:00.399 Republicans are holding onto their structural 00:16:00.399 --> 00:16:02.740 advantages in deeply conservative geography, 00:16:02.940 --> 00:16:05.820 but the underlying data points to an incredibly 00:16:05.820 --> 00:16:08.740 motivated Democratic base. Yeah. When you combine 00:16:08.740 --> 00:16:11.379 a highly energized opposition with a deteriorating 00:16:11.379 --> 00:16:14.639 economic backdrop and an unpopular overseas conflict, 00:16:14.980 --> 00:16:17.460 you are basically setting up a collision course 00:16:17.460 --> 00:16:20.059 for November. that defies traditional polling. 00:16:20.419 --> 00:16:22.100 So let's wrap our heads around this whole journey 00:16:22.100 --> 00:16:23.980 we just took you on because it proves why you 00:16:23.980 --> 00:16:26.019 really can't look at the news in silos anymore. 00:16:26.379 --> 00:16:28.600 No, everything is connected. We started thousands 00:16:28.600 --> 00:16:30.899 of miles away in the Middle East with closed 00:16:30.899 --> 00:16:33.460 shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. We watched 00:16:33.460 --> 00:16:36.899 that geopolitical shock ripple outward spiking 00:16:36.899 --> 00:16:39.279 the price of diesel and threatening to make your 00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:41.679 everyday grocery run way more expensive. Which 00:16:41.679 --> 00:16:44.279 leads to domestic tension. Right. We saw how 00:16:44.279 --> 00:16:47.100 that domestic pressure led to the FCC making 00:16:47.100 --> 00:16:49.639 wild, mechanically impossible threats against 00:16:49.639 --> 00:16:51.940 the broadcast license of your local TV station. 00:16:52.519 --> 00:16:55.399 Exactly. And finally, we saw how all of that 00:16:55.399 --> 00:16:58.580 compounding anxiety is causing voters at the 00:16:58.580 --> 00:17:01.580 ballot box to retreat to safety, shifting political 00:17:01.580 --> 00:17:04.299 fault lines by literal double digits. Staying 00:17:04.299 --> 00:17:06.299 informed across all these intersecting disciplines 00:17:06.299 --> 00:17:08.279 is your ultimate defense against the noise. I 00:17:08.279 --> 00:17:10.460 mean, you cannot understand the voter in Illinois 00:17:10.460 --> 00:17:13.180 unless you understand the inflation data on diesel. 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:15.599 Right. And you cannot understand the price of 00:17:15.599 --> 00:17:17.680 diesel unless you understand the geopolitics 00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:19.819 of the Persian Gulf and the infighting at the 00:17:19.819 --> 00:17:22.279 Pentagon. The systems are entirely interwoven. 00:17:22.250 --> 00:17:25.130 It is a single, massive web. But before we sign 00:17:25.130 --> 00:17:26.630 off, I want to leave you with one final story 00:17:26.630 --> 00:17:28.710 from our sources today. Something that wasn't 00:17:28.710 --> 00:17:31.849 about politics, oil, or government regulations, 00:17:32.250 --> 00:17:35.150 but still perfectly captures the sort of bizarre 00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:38.450 cultural friction of this exact moment. OK, what 00:17:38.450 --> 00:17:41.200 is it? Last night. was the finale of the World 00:17:41.200 --> 00:17:44.799 Baseball Classic. Ah, right. The triennial tournament 00:17:44.799 --> 00:17:47.779 bringing together 20 nations. It's usually dominated 00:17:47.779 --> 00:17:50.599 by a very predictable handful of baseball powerhouses. 00:17:51.019 --> 00:17:53.279 Right. Going into the tournament, the consensus 00:17:53.279 --> 00:17:56.460 was that only four teams had a real mathematical 00:17:56.460 --> 00:18:00.000 shot at the trophy. The United States, the Dominican 00:18:00.000 --> 00:18:03.119 Republic, Mexico and Japan. Well, everyone else 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:04.859 was essentially supposed to just be happy they 00:18:04.859 --> 00:18:06.559 got an invitation. The baseball doesn't really 00:18:06.559 --> 00:18:09.220 care about consensus. It does not. Yeah. Against 00:18:09.220 --> 00:18:11.559 all odds, the championship game came down to 00:18:11.559 --> 00:18:14.539 the United States against Venezuela. Just the 00:18:14.539 --> 00:18:17.339 sheer unpredictability of a single elimination 00:18:17.339 --> 00:18:21.079 format in a sport built on microscopic margins. 00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:23.599 It really is a game of inches. So the US was 00:18:23.599 --> 00:18:25.700 trailing. But in the eighth inning, Bryce Harper 00:18:25.700 --> 00:18:28.240 hit this massive home run to tie the game, shifting 00:18:28.240 --> 00:18:30.920 all the momentum. Wow. But then Eugenio Suarez 00:18:30.920 --> 00:18:33.200 stepped up and hit a double to put Venezuela 00:18:33.200 --> 00:18:35.660 back ahead three to two. Unbelievable. And to 00:18:35.660 --> 00:18:38.140 close the game out, Venezuela brought in Daniel 00:18:38.140 --> 00:18:40.980 Palencia. He's a closer for the Chicago Cubs, 00:18:41.400 --> 00:18:43.980 but he was operating under incredibly strict 00:18:43.980 --> 00:18:46.200 prearranged Major League Baseball conditions. 00:18:46.460 --> 00:18:49.579 Like, he was only allowed by his pro team to 00:18:49.579 --> 00:18:51.799 pitch if it was the bottom of the ninth in a 00:18:51.799 --> 00:18:54.519 definitive save situation. Talk about pressure. 00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:58.200 Seriously. But he met the exact conditions, took 00:18:58.200 --> 00:19:01.079 the mound, got three consecutive outs, and Venezuela 00:19:01.079 --> 00:19:03.779 won the World Baseball Classic. It is such an 00:19:03.779 --> 00:19:07.059 incredible underdog sports story. But our source 00:19:07.059 --> 00:19:10.660 leaves us with a very pointed sociological observation 00:19:10.660 --> 00:19:13.259 about that matchup. They really did. They hinted 00:19:13.259 --> 00:19:15.059 that the Venezuelan team seemed to have, quote, 00:19:15.460 --> 00:19:17.559 a little extra motivation to beat the United 00:19:17.559 --> 00:19:20.079 States on a global stage. And that is the perfect 00:19:20.079 --> 00:19:22.220 provocative question to leave you with today. 00:19:22.339 --> 00:19:24.700 We spent the last 20 minutes talking about the 00:19:24.700 --> 00:19:27.720 overt, quantifiable ways that international conflict 00:19:27.720 --> 00:19:31.180 impacts our world. markets, political boundaries, 00:19:31.480 --> 00:19:34.579 gas prices. But how deeply do geopolitical tensions 00:19:34.579 --> 00:19:37.299 and years of economic sanctions seep into the 00:19:37.299 --> 00:19:40.240 global subconscious? When two nations step onto 00:19:40.240 --> 00:19:43.160 a diamond, when does a simple game of baseball 00:19:43.160 --> 00:19:46.519 stop being just a game and start becoming a proxy 00:19:46.519 --> 00:19:49.339 battle for national pride and geopolitical validation? 00:19:49.609 --> 00:19:51.730 It really proves that when the systemic shock 00:19:51.730 --> 00:19:54.349 hits, the tension doesn't just stay in the boardroom 00:19:54.349 --> 00:19:56.990 or the war room, it leaks onto the field too. 00:19:57.170 --> 00:19:59.789 It leaks everywhere. Thank you so much for joining 00:19:59.789 --> 00:20:02.230 us on this deep dive. Keep questioning the narratives 00:20:02.230 --> 00:20:04.190 around you, look for the hidden mechanisms driving 00:20:04.190 --> 00:20:06.190 the headlines, and we'll catch you next time.