You know, when you look at an ancient, like,
medieval map, there is always that edge where
the known world just, well, just stops. Right.
They just run out of actual geography. Exactly.
And instead of just leaving it blank or, I don't
know, admitting they didn't know what was actually
out there, the mapmakers would sketch in these
elaborate sea monsters. They'd write things like,
um, here be dragons. Yeah, it's completely human
nature. When we face a void of information or
maybe an uncomfortable truth, we prefer to draw
a monster. We just fill the gap with a story.
I mean, a compelling story is always so much
easier to digest than complex reality, right?
So welcome to today's custom tailored deep dive
where that gap, that massive, fascinating space
between the stories we are told and the underlying
reality that is our entire mission for today.
It really is. And we have a fantastic stack of
sources to go through. We really do. So we are
taking you through a stack of material today
that honestly hammers this concept home. Since
today is March 17th, 2026, we are starting with
a historical reality check on St. Patrick's Day.
Which is very fitting. Right. Then we are pulling
from recent political and geopolitical analysis
from Electoral Vote News covering the Middle
East, Cuba and the U .S. Senate. And then we'll
connect all of that to a really stark financial
warning from hedge -eye risk management regarding
the private credit markets. It is quite the stack.
And, you know, the through line is undeniable
here, whether it's an ancient myth, a political
narrative, or an economic forecast, what's happening
on the surface rarely tells the whole story.
It never does. Now, before we jump in, I need
to give a crucial disclaimer for you as you listen.
The electoral vote source we're covering contains
strongly worded, politically charged perspectives
regarding the Trump administration's foreign
policy and the strategies of both Republicans
and Democrats in Congress. Yeah, it gets pretty
heavy into the politics. It does. So we need
to make it absolutely clear. We are not taking
sides or endorsing any of these viewpoints. Our
job is simply to impartially report on the content
provided and help you unpack the ideas contained
in your original source material exactly we look
at the mechanics of the arguments nothing more
nothing less so okay let's unpack this because
today is March 17th there are parades green clothing
everywhere corned beef it is just the perfect
case study in how reality gets rewritten over
time oh absolutely because the historical reality
of st. Patrick is just wildly different from
the guy on the modern greeting cards right Like,
to start with the most basic fact, St. Patrick
wasn't actually Irish. Not at all. He was actually
born in Roman Britain in the fourth century,
and his introduction to Ireland was incredibly
traumatic. Traumatic how? Well, at the age of
16, he was kidnapped. Wait, really? Kidnap? So
the patron saint of Ireland was brought there
against his will, like as a captive? Yes, exactly.
By Irish raiders. He was taken across the sea
and enslaved as a shepherd. Oh, wow. I had no
idea. Yeah, he spent years enslaved there before
he eventually escaped and made it back home to
Britain. He became a priest. And then in this
really remarkable psychological twist, he felt
called to return to the very people who had enslaved
him as a missionary. That is wild. It's like
finding out Santa Claus actually lived in the
Mediterranean, not the North Pole. It totally
shifts your perspective. Right. And even the
date, you know, March 17th, isn't his birthday,
like a lot of people just assume. It's actually
the traditional date of his death. Right. And
what's fascinating here is how the symbols we
associate with him evolved over the centuries.
Take the famous legend of him driving all the
snakes out of Ireland. Oh, the ultimate hereby
dragon story. Precisely. Historians and biologists
are quite clear on this. There were never any
snakes in Ireland to begin with. Really? Never?
Never. The climate and geography post -ice age
just didn't support them. So the snakes were
a metaphor. They represent the older pagan beliefs
that Patrick was supposedly driving out to replace
with Christianity. Ah, okay. That makes so much
more sense. And it's the same thing with the
shamrock. Tradition says he used it to explain
the Christian trinity, you know, father, son,
holy spirit to the locals. So it's just a teaching
tool. Exactly. A teaching tool that eventually
morphed into the symbol of the entire country.
But I mean, I'm stuck on how we get from a somber
fifth century missionary. to green beer and massive
street parties. Because for centuries in Ireland,
this was a quiet religious observance, right?
Yeah, it was a feast day. Mostly because it offered
a brief break from the strict fasting of Lent.
But no, it wasn't a party. So how did it change?
That transformation is entirely thanks to the
diaspora. When Irish immigrants moved to the
United States in massive numbers, they faced
severe prejudice. So to counter that, they started
using St. Patrick's Day as a massive display
of cultural pride. Oh, so it was a political
solidarity thing. Exactly. The loud parades,
the wearing of the green, even the corned beef,
which was actually popularized in America because
it was cheaper than traditional Irish bacon.
The diaspora essentially overwrote a historical
figure into a global symbol of identity. And
you know, that same dynamic where of vocal diaspora
completely overwrites the reality on the ground.
It isn't just a historical quirk. It is actively
driving U .S. foreign policy right now. It really
is. If we look at the electoral vote analysis
in your stack, the narratives coming out of Washington
mask a reality that is much more complicated
and honestly a lot more dangerous. Let's look
at Cuba. Yeah, Cuba is a perfect example. Their
energy infrastructure recently failed completely.
And this wasn't just a random accident. The source
notes it was largely due to a U .S. oil blockade.
Right. Because when you block heavy crude imports,
aging power plants simply can't run. Exactly.
And Trump's response to this crisis was to brag
about going in to take Cuba. The source actually
compares his rhetoric about building luxury resorts
there to a plot point from The Godfather Part
2. But the strategy driving that rhetoric is
based almost entirely on the perspectives of
the diaspora, right? Like Cuban -American political
figures. Yes, specifically relying on figures
like Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham. They are
listening strictly to the diaspora who fled the
regime. And the source argues that's a massive
miscalculation. It is. Because just the fact
that the diaspora haste the regime doesn't mean
the Cubans currently living on the island are
going to greet the US with open arms. I mean,
these are people who are actively suffering from
shortages of food and fuel that are directly
imposed by US policies. Right. They aren't going
to be throwing a parade. Exactly. The source
makes the point that substituting domestic political
appeasement, basically telling diaspora voters
what they want to hear for coherent foreign policy,
is incredibly risky. especially considering this
administration has engaged in three war fronts
this year alone, including Venezuela back on
January 3rd. It's the here be dragons map all
over again. We are drawing the reality we want
to see rather than dealing with the reality that
exists. And we are seeing that exact same dangerous
disconnect play out with Iran. Oh, definitely.
Right now, there is a severe bottleneck in the
Strait of Hormuz. And for you listening, the
Strait of Hormuz is this tiny 21 mile wide choke
point. When transit freezes there, it causes
massive oil and gas price issues globally. And
Trump's initial move was to ask allies and even
China. to help clear the strait. But the source
notes, they all flatly refused. Wow. All of them.
Yeah. Because foreign policy doesn't happen in
a vacuum. The allies fear massive domestic backlash.
Getting involved could mean the end of Keir Starmer's
career in the UK or Friedrich Merz in Germany
and China. They have zero incentive to help.
They want the U .S. economy to take a hit. Which
led to this incredible moment of political bluster.
Trump basically pivoted and claimed the U .S.
has plenty of oil and doesn't even need them.
But the source points out the actual ground level
facts. Fifty five percent of U .S. petroleum
imports actually come from Canada. Right. And
Canada might just sell to desperate European
nations instead. Oil is a global market. You
can't just ignore a bottleneck like that. But
I want to highlight the most ironic detail in
all of this. Iran is actually shipping more oil
right now. Yeah, through its own mined waters.
They aren't sharing the lanes anymore. Which
leads to a massive long term threat. Iran is
reportedly considering reopening the strait only
for trades conducted in Chinese Yuan. Which could
devastate the U .S. economy long term. Here's
where it gets really interesting. If the ultimate
goal is American dominance, wouldn't pushing
global oil trades into the Chinese Yuan be the
exact opposite of an America first win? You would
think so. The source argues the administration
is basically incapable of thinking two or three
steps ahead. And you see that erratic behavior
when the narrative collapses, like Trump's recent
thousand word unhinged social media rant. Oh,
right, where he claimed that a living former
president liked his decision to bomb Iran. Exactly.
And spokespeople for all four of them, Biden,
Obama, Clinton and Bush, explicitly denied this.
It's a clear gap between bluster and reality.
But, you know, substituting political theater
for reality doesn't just isolate you diplomatically.
Eventually, the bill comes due. Geopolitical
chaos in the Middle East isn't just a political
problem. It has direct, massive financial consequences
for you, the listener. Absolutely. And the Hegei
risk management source explicitly connects the
war in Iran to an impending financial crisis.
Yeah. Hegei is warning of a major shift in the
$1 .8 trillion private credit market. $1 .8 trillion?
That is a massive number. So, what's the macroeconomic
backdrop here? Well, the war in Iran triggered
an oil shock, and that leads to an inflation
impulse, which naturally leads to a slowdown
in consumption and the labor market. Quad 3.
So that's when growth is slowing down, but inflation
is rising. Exactly. And in that Quad 3 environment,
private credit defaults have hit a record 9 .2%.
Wait, 9 .2? How does that compare to normal loans?
It's more than double. Syndicated loans are sitting
around 4 .5%. And JP Morgan is already marking
down the values of these private loans. Which
triggers panic, right? Because major funds like
Cliffwater are facing 7 % withdrawal requests.
Yes. And BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley.
They're all limiting or gating redemptions. People
want their money, but they are facing severe
illiquidity. And regional banks are heavily exposed
to this, aren't they? Like $100 billion to $150
billion dollars exposed. Exactly. Hedgeye CEO
Keith McCullough uses this great analogy. He
calls it lightning on the fairway. It's like
you're holding a metal golf club during a storm.
You either act on it or you don't. So what does
this all mean? I mean, is this a Jenga Tower
situation, like 2008, where pulling the private
credit block brings down the whole banking system?
If we connect this to the bigger picture, hedge
-eye stance is actually quite clear. No, this
is not 2008. OK, that's a relief. Yeah, the banks
are better capitalized now. Instead, they describe
it as a slow -motion train crash that will play
out over two to three years. A slow -motion train
crash? Right. It's much more similar to the 2001
to 2002 telecom credit cycle, but this time it's
concentrated in software. Hedgeye brings in Neil
Howe's fourth turning framework and the 1873
railroad panic to explain this. The 1873 railroad
panic. Yeah. It shows why looking at centuries
of data is so much better than recency bias.
We always look for the last crisis, but history
shows these slow burn crashes happen regularly
if you zoom out. OK, so we have wars raging in
the Middle East. We have an energy crisis in
Cuba and a slow -motion train crash beginning
in a $1 .8 trillion credit market. So, with all
these literal storms brewing, how is the U .S.
Senate responding? Well, according to the electoral
vote source, they are pivoting to pure political
fear. Of course they are. Because Senate Majority
Leader John Thune is bringing the SAVE Act to
the floor. And the goal isn't really to pass
it, right? It's a drawn -out debate to force
Democrats to defend voting against it. Exactly.
It provides GOP soundbites for the fall election.
Senator Mike Lee is apparently eyeing a 60 -day
debate explicitly modeled after the 1964 Civil
Rights Act. 60 days. And the polling context
sort of explains why they're doing it. 85 % of
respondents support citizens -only voting. It
sounds great on paper. Right. But here is the
reality check the source points out. Non -citizens
are already forbidden from voting in federal
elections. Already forbidden. So it's completely
redundant. Yes. The bill essentially solves a
problem that doesn't actually exist. But Trump
refuses to sign any bills until this hits his
desk. So the GOP strategy might simply be to
show him they tried. But if non -citizens are
already banned from voting, why spend potentially
60 days debating this while the Department of
Homeland Security is shut down and the global
economy is threatening to shift to the yuan?
I mean, it feels like fighting over the playlist
while the Titanic hits the iceberg. This raises
an important question. It shows this deep disconnect
between urgent national crises and performative
domestic politics. The source views this legislative
maneuver as entirely about creating campaign
soundbites and appeasing the president's demands.
Right, rather than addressing the actual macroeconomic
storms brewing. Exactly. And the Democrat counter
-strategy is to just highlight that absurdity.
Right. To point out that they're debating a redundant
voter ID law for 60 days while there's a war
in Iran and DHS is shut down. And there's this
incredible irony noted by the source, too. Voter
ID laws might not even help the G .O. key anymore.
Yeah, mathematically speaking, because affluent
suburbanites who lean Democrat these days easily
have passports and IDs. Right. While city dwellers
can just be mobilized with massive get your paperwork
drives. So the whole thing is performative theater
based on outdated assumptions. It really is.
So let's recap the journey of this deep dive
for you. We started with the true history of
St. Patrick versus the myths we celebrate today.
Showing how narratives overwrite reality. Exactly.
Then we moved to the disconnect between political
bluster and ground realities in Iran and Cuba.
We explored the very real slow motion train crash
in the private credit markets. And we ended with
the performative political theater happening
right now in the Senate. Which is quite the trip.
It is. But remember, being truly well informed
means looking past the loud parades, whether
they are happening outside your window on St.
Patrick's Day or on the Senate floor. You have
to see the underlying mechanics of what's actually
driving the world. You have to look at the math,
not just the bluster. Exactly. Which leaves us
with a final provocative thought for you to explore
on your own. If a fifth century missionary's
life can be completely rewritten by history to
feature non -existent snakes and green beer.
How will the history books of 2050 summarize
the political and economic decisions being made
today? That is a great question. What snakes
are our politicians currently inventing to avoid
dealing with the real slow -motion train crashes
heading our way? We will leave you with that
to mull over. Until next time.