You know, it's pretty wild to think that a military
strike on this tiny coral island thousands of
miles away can directly dictate what you end
up watching on your television on a Sunday night.
Right. It sounds totally disconnected. We have
this tendency to put the world into these neat
little boxes, you know, like foreign policy goes
in one box, macroeconomics goes in another, and
entertainment is just in its own little bubble.
Yeah, exactly. But when you actually lay out
all the data, the invisible threads connecting
them have, well, they've never been pulled tighter.
And that is exactly what we are mapping out today.
So welcome to the deep dive. Instead of just
looking at one isolated event, we are pulling
from a really diverse stack of sources today
to show you the whole board. We've got a lot
to cover. We really do. We've got recent political
dispatches from Electoral Vote. We have a highly
detailed macroeconomic dashboard from Hedgeye,
dated March 13th, 2026, and a really fresh Axios
and Pew research analysis breaking down the 2026
Oscars and the underlying business of movie theaters.
And at first glance, you might wonder what those
three things actually have to do with each other.
Right. But our mission today is to connect those
dots for you. We're going to trace the line from
overseas military actions straight through the
artificial intelligence revolution and right
into the economic realities that, frankly, probably
kept you on your living room couch for the Oscars
instead of sitting in an actual theater. So let's
start with the biggest physical driver of the
global economy right now because Honestly, everything
else just flows downstream from it. And that
is energy and conflict. According to the reports
we have, the US has bombed Karg Island. And just
to give you a sense of scale here, this is a
coral island sitting roughly 15 miles off the
coast of Iran. It's tiny. Yeah. It's like maybe
a third the size of Manhattan. Right. But structurally,
it is the absolute beating heart of their energy
infrastructure. The reporting says it handles
90 % of Iran's oil exports. Which means the tactical
realities on the water are just severe right
now. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is functionally
closed to traffic. And reopening a vital global
waterway isn't just a matter of you know, waiting
for the smoke to clear. Yeah, you need actual
ships for that. Exactly. You need specialized
naval minesweepers to clear the waters, which
is just a massive logistical nightmare. But even
beyond the physical cleanup, look at the pure
financial asymmetry of modern naval warfare here.
Oh, this part is fascinating. Right. If you are
a shipping CEO, you are looking at your hundred
million dollar modern tanker and you have to
decide if you're going to risk that massive asset
against a drone that frankly, cost $50 ,000 to
build. The math just completely breaks down for
the shipping companies. It makes no sense. None
at all. And while that's happening on the water,
the political maneuvering back home is incredibly
tense. The dispatches we have detail how former
President Trump is essentially navigating around
formal congressional approval. Moving funds around.
Exactly. He is reportedly moving money around
within the eight hundred and seventy billion
dollar defense budget to fund these operations.
So he's seeking what amounts to implicit war
authorization. And meanwhile, you have Democratic
combat veterans like Arizona's Ruben Gallego
actively attacking this kind of forever war strategy.
Yeah, Gallego went out of his way to call out
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth over reported
no quarter order. Meaning orders to take no prisoners.
Right, which Gallego points out are explicitly
illegal under international law. So you have
this massive geopolitical shockwave. But I think
for the person listening to this right now, the
obvious question is, how does a strike in the
Middle East actually affect my life? Why should
you care? Exactly. And I think the best way to
understand it is this global oil bathtub analogy.
People often assume that because the U .S. doesn't
directly import its oil from Iran, we are somehow
insulated from this. But we aren't. Not at all.
Because oil is a highly fungible commodity, it
all sloshes around in one giant global bathtub.
Right. If a disruption at Karg Island suddenly
sloshes millions of gallons of water out of the
tub, the overall water level drops for everybody,
meaning inevitably you are going to feel that
at your local gas pump. And what's fascinating
here is how that bathtub effect shows up in the
hard quantitative data. If we look at the Hedge
Eye Macro Dashboard, they report that the global
economy is shifting aggressively into what they
call Quad 3. OK, let's pause and translate that
macro speak for a second. When they say Quad
3, they are talking about stagflation, right?
Correct. And it is the absolute worst case scenario
for an economy. Basically a nightmare. Yeah,
it means economic growth is slowing down, stagnating,
while inflation is simultaneously going up. So
your paycheck isn't growing, but the cost to
simply exist is skyrocketing. Exactly. And the
numbers Hedgeye provides are just staggering.
Brent oil was up 11 .4 percent week over week
and 53 .2 percent over the last month. The U
.S. dollar index has cleared the 100 level, which
indicates a massive global flight to safety.
So investors are just panicking and hoarding
cash. Yes. And then you look at the bond market.
The MVV index, which measures volatility in the
bond market, is up an eye -watering 3 ,168 basis
points in a single month. OK, wait. 3 ,168 basis
points sounds like a lot. But what does that
actually mean for the listener? Well, a basis
point is just one hundredth of a percent. So
we are talking about bond market volatility violently
spiking by over 31 percent. Wow. And why should
you care? Because the bond market dictates the
cost of borrowing money. Right. Interest rates.
Right. When the movie you deck spikes like that,
it means the interest rate on your credit card
or your car loan or your dream of getting a mortgage
just became wildly unpredictable and likely much
more expensive. And the stock market isn't looking
much better either. The data notes the VIX, which
is the stock market's fear gauge, is sitting
at twenty seven point two four. Hedgeye categorizes
that right in the middle of their chop bucket.
Paint a picture of what that actually feels like.
Think of it like being on a boat. A VIX under
15 is smooth sailing. A VIX over 35 is a category
five hurricane where markets are just crashing.
At 27, you are in the chop bucket. It's not a
hurricane, but the waters are incredibly volatile.
It's throwing the boat side to side, making investors
seasick and making it basically impossible to
confidently plan your next move. That makes sense.
That's why commodities are currently the number
one asset class. When growth slows but inflation
spikes, hard assets, things you can physically
touch like oil, wheat, and corn, those become
the only reliable places to hide. So the cost
of everyday survival is spiking. And I feel like
when people feel that kind of intense economic
squeeze, when everyday life feels like you're
stuck in that chop bucket, the political landscape
naturally starts to fracture. Oh, totally. People
get desperate. They do. And you can see that
anxiety bleeding directly into the domestic political
dispatch as we pulled from electoral vote. The
old orthodoxies of both major parties are completely
breaking down right now. The generational and
ideological splits are happening simultaneously
across the board. The examples in the reporting
are just wild. On the Democrat side, you have
Jim Clyburn running for an 18th term in Congress
at age 85. Yeah, just totally defying internal
party calls for new blood. But the real microcosm
of this fragmentation is the Illinois primary
to replace 81 year old Senator Dick Durbin. That
race is a mess. It is an intensely fractured
field. There's Juliana Stratton, who has the
backing of Governor Pritzker's millions. Then
you have Robin Kelly, who is actively campaigning
on a platform to literally abolish the Department
of Homeland Security. And then you have Roger
Christian -Worthy. A moderate, who the sources
suggest might actually win entirely because of
how the math works out. And that's a crucial
structural point the sources make. Illinois uses
a first -past -the -post voting system, so there
are no runoffs. So in a highly fragmented, highly
anxious electorate, if two progressive candidates
like Stratton and Kelly split 60 % of the vote
evenly between them, The moderate candidate can
win the whole thing outright with just 40 percent.
Just slipping right through the middle. Exactly.
That's a prime example of how mechanical election
rules combined with a fractured voter base, dictate
massive ideological outcomes. But, you know,
this isn't just a Democratic issue. The GOP side
is dealing with the exact same structural fracturing.
Oh, for sure. The reports highlight Trump's dilemma
in the Texas Senate race. He is caught between
endorsing the traditional establishment figure,
John Cornyn. or the Maggi favorite, Ken Paxton.
Still a lose -lose for him. Right. If he backed
Cornyn, the base revolts. If he backs Paxton,
he risks losing the general election. It's such
a headache that in Oklahoma, Trump is actively
trying to forestall a messy primary entirely.
Oh, so? By simply anointing Kevin Hearn to take
over Markway and Mullen's Senate seat, assuming
Mullen heads over to lead DHS. It is just institutional
chaos everywhere you look. And amidst all this
structural political maneuvering, the sources
highlight a true wild card that just resurfaced.
Oh, yes. And it perfectly captures the bizarre
nature of the current landscape. Wait, I'm so
glad you brought this up because I wanted to
marvel at this for a second. It's crazy. It really
is. The House Oversight Committee, led by James
Comer, is subpoenaing Tova Noel. Now, she was
one of the guards on duty the night Jeffrey Epstein
died. Right. The recently disclosed files show
about $12 ,000 in highly suspicious cash deposits
to her account, including one just 10 days prior
to his death. Which is already a red flag. Exactly.
And then you add to that a brief flash of orange
cloth seen on surveillance video near the cell
and her incredibly bizarre web searches for furniture
while on the job. I mean you can't make this
stuff up. You really can. Imagine being on duty
the night the most high -profile prisoner in
the world dies and you're like Googling sofas.
It adds an almost surreal layer to the institutional
distrust. But, you know, this desperation for
control that we are seeing in the Senate races
and committee hearings is bleeding directly into
how the government is interacting with the private
sector. Yeah, let's talk about the TikTok deal.
The reports detail some incredibly heavy handed
corporate interventions by Trump regarding TikTok.
Right. The sources describe a broker deal valuing
the U .S. side of TikTok at 14 billion dollars.
And this was arranged with major tech industry
figures like Larry Ellison and Michael Dell.
But the detail that really stands out is the
fee. Yes. The inclusion of an unprecedented $10
billion bribe fee. And that is the exact term
the source uses, by the way. Quote, quote, bribe
fee. Exactly. Paid directly to the US Treasury
simply for the privilege of the deal being allowed
to go forward. The sources frame this as an essentially
communist approach to private markets, where
the government is deeply intervening in the means
of production and just demanding a cut. And you
contrast that $10 billion tech shakedown with
what's happening in the old economy. The reports
note Trump opened up millions of acres of federal
land for coal mining auctions. And what happened?
Nobody bid. Well, almost nobody. Wait, really?
Yeah, the Navajo Transitional Electric Company
submitted a bid for one single cent per ton.
One cent. One cent. Which the government promptly
rejected. The power companies flat out refused
to bid. Why wouldn't they want the land? Because
you cannot power a 21st century artificial intelligence
data center with 19th century coal. They want
modern power for modern tech. Wow. Which brings
us to, honestly, the most disruptive force in
this entire stack of sources, artificial intelligence.
Yeah. Wait, I'm looking at the notes here, quoting
volunteer CEO Alex Karp, and I actually have
to challenge this thesis based on the other data
in our own stack. OK, let's unpack this. What
does he say? Karp claims that AI is primarily
going to disrupt humanity's trained, largely
Democratic voters. He's essentially arguing it
will automate away the laptop class, reducing
their economic power while actually increasing
the power of vocationally trained working class
Republican voters. Right, so he's suggesting
this divide where the physical blue -collar world
remains untouched by algorithms. But that completely
ignores the physical reality of what AI is doing
right now. Yeah, that's a good point. The very
same reports detail the rise of dark factories
in China. These are massive manufacturing centers
that literally operate with the lights off. Because
there's no one inside. Exactly. Zero humans working
inside just AI -driven robots building things
in the dark. that is blue collar work disappearing
overnight. And it's not just factory floors.
Look at the military data. Right, the drones.
The sources mention the XBAT and the Anduril
Fury, which are fully autonomous AI -driven fighter
jets. AI is absolutely coming for highly skilled,
traditionally manly jobs, too. It isn't just
coming for middle management and, like, copywriters.
If we connect this to the bigger picture, that
is an... Excellent point and it highlights exactly
why AI is poised to become the ultimate political
wedge issue over the next decade, right? It isn't
gonna respect party lines and it isn't gonna
care what color your collar is Yeah, and because
it threatens everyone equally you are gonna see
politicians weaponize it to appease that anxious
electorate We talked about earlier, but how do
they actually weaponize it? Well, the sources
outline a few highly probable scenarios first
Remember that global oil bathtub in the Quad
3 stagflation? Yeah, the expensive gas. As energy
prices inevitably spike, politicians will start
blaming these massive AI data centers for your
high electricity bills. Oh, that's smart. Politically
speaking, I mean. It's a remarkably easy political
sell to point at a tech billionaire's server
farm and say, that's why your AC bill is so high.
Second, watch for a major push for strict legal
liability. The sources use the example of an
AI doctor. If an AI makes a medical mistake,
politicians will push to ensure the hospital
faces the exact same catastrophic malpractice
liability as a human doctor. Ah, so using the
law to slow it down. Exactly. By forcing organizations
to hold full legal liability for AI errors, they
can intentionally slow the adoption of the technology
in order to protect jobs. So we've spent a lot
of time talking about how macroeconomic stagflation
and AI are completely upending how we work, what
our money is worth, and who governs us. A lot
of heavy stuff. Yeah. But if these massive forces
are changing how we build things and how we afford
things, they are also colliding to completely
rewire what we do when we just want to turn our
brains off. Which brings us to the attention
economy. The battle for your limited free time.
Exactly. Let's look at the 2026 Oscars. On the
surface, it was a fascinating night. One battle
after another beat out the heavily nominated
sinners for Best Picture, taking home six statues
to four. A big sweep. Yeah. We saw Michael B.
Jordan pull a massive upset over Timothee Chalamet
for Best Actor. That was a surprise. It was.
And Autumn Durrell Archipaugh made history as
the first woman. and the first woman of color
to win Best Cinematography for her work on Sinners.
We even had a historic tie in the live action
short category. And that very tart, memorable
jab from Kieran Culkin about a missing Sean Penn.
Yes. It is the ultimate spectacle of Hollywood
glamour. But when you look at the Axios and Pew
research data provided, it paints a very harsh,
sobering reality behind all that glitz. It really
does. By almost every metric. The traditional
movie industry is collapsing. The numbers are
brutal. They really are. The 2025 domestic box
office was only $8 .6 billion. But revenue numbers
can be deceiving because they depend on inflation
and rising ticket prices. If you look at pure
attendance, actual human beings getting out of
their cars and walking into a theater, ticket
sales dropped to $769 million. Wow. That is a
51 % plunge from their peak in 2002. AMC stock
is currently trading around a single dollar to
share. A dollar. And it's hitting the production
side, too. Filming permits in Los Angeles have
plummeted 49 % since 2018. So where is all that
studio money going? They are redirecting their
massive budgets away from traditional cinema
and pouring it into live sports. You know, it
makes total sense when you think about the value
proposition for you, the listener. I think about
it like the difference between public transit
and owning a car. Oh, I like that analogy. Yeah.
If you go to the theater, it's like taking you
operate on their schedule. A single ticket costs
you between $13 and $18 for a fixed 200 -minute
ride. You sit with strangers, you watch the movie,
you go home. Right. Meanwhile, streaming is like
having a car in your own driveway. The data shows
the average household is spending $69 a month
for four different streaming services. Yeah,
that infinite buffet. Exactly. The upfront cost
might be a little higher but the marginal cost
of taking a trip of watching a movie at 2 a .m.
in your pajamas is zero. That is a perfect way
to frame it. The traditional theater model simply
cannot compete with the sheer volume and convenience
of the streaming ecosystem. It's impossible.
But it goes deeper than just convenience. It
connects directly back to that Quad 3 stagflation
we talked about in the very beginning. Oh, interesting.
How so? Well, when your everyday life feels stressful,
when your grocery bill is up and your mortgage
rate is volatile, consumer psychology changes.
Oh, that makes sense. Yeah, you don't want a
rigid, expensive $50 night out that requires
driving and parking and dealing with crowds.
You want cheap, limitless comfort. You want escapism.
Exactly. We no longer want the 200 minute ritual.
We want the 10 hour binge on our own schedule,
safely insulated in our own homes. I mean, ask
yourself. When is the last time you actually
drove to a theater versus just firing up a streaming
app? The technology didn't just change the delivery
mechanism. It changed our fundamental relationship
with entertainment. It really is incredible when
you step back and look at the whole board here.
We started this deep dive looking at a bombed
coral island in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting
the global oil supply. We traced how that macroeconomic
pressure, that quad three stagflation, is fracturing
domestic politics, causing 85 -year -old incumbents
to cling to power and creating bizarre, heavy
-handed government interventions in tech. Like
the TikTok bribe fee. Right. We saw how the AI
revolution is creating humanless dark factories
that threaten to reshape the entire American
workforce, regardless of whether you wear a blue
collar or a white one. Truly common for everybody.
And finally, we followed those exact same technological
and economic pressures right into your living
room, where the desire for cheap, convenient
escapism is quietly putting the traditional movie
theater out of business. It is a continuous,
unbroken chain of disruption. Yeah. But, you
know, if we connect all these threads, the AI
revolution, the changing nature of entertainment,
the economic pressures driving us to our couches,
it raises an incredibly provocative question
about where we are heading next. OK, what's the
next link in the chain? Well, think about it.
If AI is already capable of replacing highly
trained fighter pilots in the military, and it's
already running those massive dark factories
in China completely without human intervention,
and if streaming algorithms have already successfully
replaced the communal movie theater experience,
How long until AI starts generating those 10
-hour streaming binges entirely on its own? Oh,
wow. Wait, Rick. I mean, we just spent a whole
segment talking about the Oscars, celebrating
human actors and brilliant cinematographers.
Yeah. But will we even need the Oscars in a decade?
Or will every single household just tromp their
television and generate their own perfectly customized
algorithmically tailored best picture? That is
a wild thought. A personalized masterpiece for
an audience of one acting as the ultimate escapism
while the global oil back tub sloshes around
outside. It just goes to show that the distance
between a geopolitical shockwave and the remote
control in your hand is basically non -existent.
Thank you for joining us on this journey today.
Keep questioning the information around you and
we'll catch you on the next deep dive.