WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.080 You know, it's pretty wild to think that a military 00:00:03.080 --> 00:00:05.839 strike on this tiny coral island thousands of 00:00:05.839 --> 00:00:09.740 miles away can directly dictate what you end 00:00:09.740 --> 00:00:11.619 up watching on your television on a Sunday night. 00:00:12.060 --> 00:00:14.810 Right. It sounds totally disconnected. We have 00:00:14.810 --> 00:00:17.390 this tendency to put the world into these neat 00:00:17.390 --> 00:00:19.989 little boxes, you know, like foreign policy goes 00:00:19.989 --> 00:00:23.289 in one box, macroeconomics goes in another, and 00:00:23.289 --> 00:00:25.550 entertainment is just in its own little bubble. 00:00:25.570 --> 00:00:27.269 Yeah, exactly. But when you actually lay out 00:00:27.269 --> 00:00:29.589 all the data, the invisible threads connecting 00:00:29.589 --> 00:00:32.490 them have, well, they've never been pulled tighter. 00:00:32.670 --> 00:00:35.009 And that is exactly what we are mapping out today. 00:00:35.229 --> 00:00:38.359 So welcome to the deep dive. Instead of just 00:00:38.359 --> 00:00:40.579 looking at one isolated event, we are pulling 00:00:40.579 --> 00:00:42.560 from a really diverse stack of sources today 00:00:42.560 --> 00:00:44.840 to show you the whole board. We've got a lot 00:00:44.840 --> 00:00:47.560 to cover. We really do. We've got recent political 00:00:47.560 --> 00:00:50.039 dispatches from Electoral Vote. We have a highly 00:00:50.039 --> 00:00:53.280 detailed macroeconomic dashboard from Hedgeye, 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:58.000 dated March 13th, 2026, and a really fresh Axios 00:00:58.000 --> 00:01:00.640 and Pew research analysis breaking down the 2026 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:04.040 Oscars and the underlying business of movie theaters. 00:01:04.459 --> 00:01:06.799 And at first glance, you might wonder what those 00:01:06.799 --> 00:01:08.700 three things actually have to do with each other. 00:01:08.859 --> 00:01:11.500 Right. But our mission today is to connect those 00:01:11.500 --> 00:01:15.099 dots for you. We're going to trace the line from 00:01:15.099 --> 00:01:17.780 overseas military actions straight through the 00:01:17.780 --> 00:01:20.439 artificial intelligence revolution and right 00:01:20.439 --> 00:01:23.840 into the economic realities that, frankly, probably 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:25.900 kept you on your living room couch for the Oscars 00:01:25.900 --> 00:01:28.780 instead of sitting in an actual theater. So let's 00:01:28.780 --> 00:01:31.599 start with the biggest physical driver of the 00:01:31.599 --> 00:01:34.659 global economy right now because Honestly, everything 00:01:34.659 --> 00:01:37.219 else just flows downstream from it. And that 00:01:37.219 --> 00:01:40.519 is energy and conflict. According to the reports 00:01:40.519 --> 00:01:43.840 we have, the US has bombed Karg Island. And just 00:01:43.840 --> 00:01:45.980 to give you a sense of scale here, this is a 00:01:45.980 --> 00:01:48.840 coral island sitting roughly 15 miles off the 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:51.859 coast of Iran. It's tiny. Yeah. It's like maybe 00:01:51.859 --> 00:01:54.859 a third the size of Manhattan. Right. But structurally, 00:01:55.120 --> 00:01:58.379 it is the absolute beating heart of their energy 00:01:58.379 --> 00:02:00.439 infrastructure. The reporting says it handles 00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:04.219 90 % of Iran's oil exports. Which means the tactical 00:02:04.219 --> 00:02:06.799 realities on the water are just severe right 00:02:06.799 --> 00:02:09.060 now. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is functionally 00:02:09.060 --> 00:02:12.099 closed to traffic. And reopening a vital global 00:02:12.099 --> 00:02:14.930 waterway isn't just a matter of you know, waiting 00:02:14.930 --> 00:02:17.169 for the smoke to clear. Yeah, you need actual 00:02:17.169 --> 00:02:19.330 ships for that. Exactly. You need specialized 00:02:19.330 --> 00:02:21.750 naval minesweepers to clear the waters, which 00:02:21.750 --> 00:02:24.250 is just a massive logistical nightmare. But even 00:02:24.250 --> 00:02:26.289 beyond the physical cleanup, look at the pure 00:02:26.289 --> 00:02:29.270 financial asymmetry of modern naval warfare here. 00:02:29.409 --> 00:02:32.490 Oh, this part is fascinating. Right. If you are 00:02:32.490 --> 00:02:35.310 a shipping CEO, you are looking at your hundred 00:02:35.310 --> 00:02:38.389 million dollar modern tanker and you have to 00:02:38.389 --> 00:02:41.069 decide if you're going to risk that massive asset 00:02:41.069 --> 00:02:44.840 against a drone that frankly, cost $50 ,000 to 00:02:44.840 --> 00:02:47.159 build. The math just completely breaks down for 00:02:47.159 --> 00:02:49.400 the shipping companies. It makes no sense. None 00:02:49.400 --> 00:02:51.460 at all. And while that's happening on the water, 00:02:51.580 --> 00:02:53.919 the political maneuvering back home is incredibly 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:56.860 tense. The dispatches we have detail how former 00:02:56.860 --> 00:02:59.139 President Trump is essentially navigating around 00:02:59.139 --> 00:03:01.699 formal congressional approval. Moving funds around. 00:03:01.900 --> 00:03:04.580 Exactly. He is reportedly moving money around 00:03:04.580 --> 00:03:06.360 within the eight hundred and seventy billion 00:03:06.360 --> 00:03:09.419 dollar defense budget to fund these operations. 00:03:09.620 --> 00:03:13.000 So he's seeking what amounts to implicit war 00:03:13.000 --> 00:03:16.379 authorization. And meanwhile, you have Democratic 00:03:16.379 --> 00:03:19.240 combat veterans like Arizona's Ruben Gallego 00:03:20.009 --> 00:03:22.750 actively attacking this kind of forever war strategy. 00:03:22.919 --> 00:03:25.280 Yeah, Gallego went out of his way to call out 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:28.340 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth over reported 00:03:28.340 --> 00:03:31.780 no quarter order. Meaning orders to take no prisoners. 00:03:32.159 --> 00:03:34.719 Right, which Gallego points out are explicitly 00:03:34.719 --> 00:03:37.819 illegal under international law. So you have 00:03:37.819 --> 00:03:41.039 this massive geopolitical shockwave. But I think 00:03:41.039 --> 00:03:43.300 for the person listening to this right now, the 00:03:43.300 --> 00:03:46.960 obvious question is, how does a strike in the 00:03:46.960 --> 00:03:49.360 Middle East actually affect my life? Why should 00:03:49.360 --> 00:03:51.340 you care? Exactly. And I think the best way to 00:03:51.340 --> 00:03:54.280 understand it is this global oil bathtub analogy. 00:03:55.020 --> 00:03:57.139 People often assume that because the U .S. doesn't 00:03:57.139 --> 00:04:00.699 directly import its oil from Iran, we are somehow 00:04:00.699 --> 00:04:03.300 insulated from this. But we aren't. Not at all. 00:04:03.460 --> 00:04:06.419 Because oil is a highly fungible commodity, it 00:04:06.419 --> 00:04:09.340 all sloshes around in one giant global bathtub. 00:04:09.400 --> 00:04:11.680 Right. If a disruption at Karg Island suddenly 00:04:11.680 --> 00:04:13.860 sloshes millions of gallons of water out of the 00:04:13.860 --> 00:04:16.360 tub, the overall water level drops for everybody, 00:04:16.639 --> 00:04:18.459 meaning inevitably you are going to feel that 00:04:18.459 --> 00:04:20.660 at your local gas pump. And what's fascinating 00:04:20.660 --> 00:04:24.040 here is how that bathtub effect shows up in the 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:26.560 hard quantitative data. If we look at the Hedge 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:29.339 Eye Macro Dashboard, they report that the global 00:04:29.339 --> 00:04:31.839 economy is shifting aggressively into what they 00:04:31.839 --> 00:04:34.459 call Quad 3. OK, let's pause and translate that 00:04:34.459 --> 00:04:36.699 macro speak for a second. When they say Quad 00:04:36.699 --> 00:04:39.100 3, they are talking about stagflation, right? 00:04:39.259 --> 00:04:42.420 Correct. And it is the absolute worst case scenario 00:04:42.420 --> 00:04:44.839 for an economy. Basically a nightmare. Yeah, 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:47.399 it means economic growth is slowing down, stagnating, 00:04:47.740 --> 00:04:50.069 while inflation is simultaneously going up. So 00:04:50.069 --> 00:04:52.730 your paycheck isn't growing, but the cost to 00:04:52.730 --> 00:04:56.149 simply exist is skyrocketing. Exactly. And the 00:04:56.149 --> 00:04:58.310 numbers Hedgeye provides are just staggering. 00:04:58.689 --> 00:05:01.629 Brent oil was up 11 .4 percent week over week 00:05:01.629 --> 00:05:05.149 and 53 .2 percent over the last month. The U 00:05:05.149 --> 00:05:07.709 .S. dollar index has cleared the 100 level, which 00:05:07.709 --> 00:05:09.990 indicates a massive global flight to safety. 00:05:10.350 --> 00:05:12.009 So investors are just panicking and hoarding 00:05:12.009 --> 00:05:14.470 cash. Yes. And then you look at the bond market. 00:05:14.620 --> 00:05:17.279 The MVV index, which measures volatility in the 00:05:17.279 --> 00:05:20.800 bond market, is up an eye -watering 3 ,168 basis 00:05:20.800 --> 00:05:24.660 points in a single month. OK, wait. 3 ,168 basis 00:05:24.660 --> 00:05:26.259 points sounds like a lot. But what does that 00:05:26.259 --> 00:05:28.259 actually mean for the listener? Well, a basis 00:05:28.259 --> 00:05:30.519 point is just one hundredth of a percent. So 00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:33.560 we are talking about bond market volatility violently 00:05:33.560 --> 00:05:36.860 spiking by over 31 percent. Wow. And why should 00:05:36.860 --> 00:05:40.560 you care? Because the bond market dictates the 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:42.639 cost of borrowing money. Right. Interest rates. 00:05:42.860 --> 00:05:45.240 Right. When the movie you deck spikes like that, 00:05:45.379 --> 00:05:47.240 it means the interest rate on your credit card 00:05:47.240 --> 00:05:50.180 or your car loan or your dream of getting a mortgage 00:05:50.180 --> 00:05:53.779 just became wildly unpredictable and likely much 00:05:53.779 --> 00:05:56.139 more expensive. And the stock market isn't looking 00:05:56.139 --> 00:05:58.759 much better either. The data notes the VIX, which 00:05:58.759 --> 00:06:01.019 is the stock market's fear gauge, is sitting 00:06:01.019 --> 00:06:04.019 at twenty seven point two four. Hedgeye categorizes 00:06:04.019 --> 00:06:05.920 that right in the middle of their chop bucket. 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:08.399 Paint a picture of what that actually feels like. 00:06:08.459 --> 00:06:10.860 Think of it like being on a boat. A VIX under 00:06:10.860 --> 00:06:14.680 15 is smooth sailing. A VIX over 35 is a category 00:06:14.680 --> 00:06:16.959 five hurricane where markets are just crashing. 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:21.839 At 27, you are in the chop bucket. It's not a 00:06:21.839 --> 00:06:24.279 hurricane, but the waters are incredibly volatile. 00:06:24.560 --> 00:06:27.160 It's throwing the boat side to side, making investors 00:06:27.160 --> 00:06:30.019 seasick and making it basically impossible to 00:06:30.019 --> 00:06:32.040 confidently plan your next move. That makes sense. 00:06:32.360 --> 00:06:34.500 That's why commodities are currently the number 00:06:34.500 --> 00:06:37.790 one asset class. When growth slows but inflation 00:06:37.790 --> 00:06:40.529 spikes, hard assets, things you can physically 00:06:40.529 --> 00:06:44.009 touch like oil, wheat, and corn, those become 00:06:44.009 --> 00:06:46.800 the only reliable places to hide. So the cost 00:06:46.800 --> 00:06:49.519 of everyday survival is spiking. And I feel like 00:06:49.519 --> 00:06:52.319 when people feel that kind of intense economic 00:06:52.319 --> 00:06:54.420 squeeze, when everyday life feels like you're 00:06:54.420 --> 00:06:56.939 stuck in that chop bucket, the political landscape 00:06:56.939 --> 00:06:59.480 naturally starts to fracture. Oh, totally. People 00:06:59.480 --> 00:07:01.600 get desperate. They do. And you can see that 00:07:01.600 --> 00:07:04.160 anxiety bleeding directly into the domestic political 00:07:04.160 --> 00:07:06.620 dispatch as we pulled from electoral vote. The 00:07:06.620 --> 00:07:09.540 old orthodoxies of both major parties are completely 00:07:09.540 --> 00:07:12.079 breaking down right now. The generational and 00:07:12.079 --> 00:07:14.379 ideological splits are happening simultaneously 00:07:14.379 --> 00:07:16.610 across the board. The examples in the reporting 00:07:16.610 --> 00:07:18.870 are just wild. On the Democrat side, you have 00:07:18.870 --> 00:07:21.689 Jim Clyburn running for an 18th term in Congress 00:07:21.689 --> 00:07:25.129 at age 85. Yeah, just totally defying internal 00:07:25.129 --> 00:07:28.449 party calls for new blood. But the real microcosm 00:07:28.449 --> 00:07:31.250 of this fragmentation is the Illinois primary 00:07:31.250 --> 00:07:34.689 to replace 81 year old Senator Dick Durbin. That 00:07:34.689 --> 00:07:37.670 race is a mess. It is an intensely fractured 00:07:37.670 --> 00:07:40.800 field. There's Juliana Stratton, who has the 00:07:40.800 --> 00:07:43.819 backing of Governor Pritzker's millions. Then 00:07:43.819 --> 00:07:46.779 you have Robin Kelly, who is actively campaigning 00:07:46.779 --> 00:07:49.420 on a platform to literally abolish the Department 00:07:49.420 --> 00:07:51.819 of Homeland Security. And then you have Roger 00:07:51.819 --> 00:07:54.379 Christian -Worthy. A moderate, who the sources 00:07:54.379 --> 00:07:56.519 suggest might actually win entirely because of 00:07:56.519 --> 00:07:58.300 how the math works out. And that's a crucial 00:07:58.300 --> 00:08:01.060 structural point the sources make. Illinois uses 00:08:01.060 --> 00:08:03.420 a first -past -the -post voting system, so there 00:08:03.420 --> 00:08:06.860 are no runoffs. So in a highly fragmented, highly 00:08:06.860 --> 00:08:09.860 anxious electorate, if two progressive candidates 00:08:09.860 --> 00:08:12.240 like Stratton and Kelly split 60 % of the vote 00:08:12.240 --> 00:08:15.110 evenly between them, The moderate candidate can 00:08:15.110 --> 00:08:17.410 win the whole thing outright with just 40 percent. 00:08:17.470 --> 00:08:19.589 Just slipping right through the middle. Exactly. 00:08:19.670 --> 00:08:22.009 That's a prime example of how mechanical election 00:08:22.009 --> 00:08:25.750 rules combined with a fractured voter base, dictate 00:08:25.750 --> 00:08:28.550 massive ideological outcomes. But, you know, 00:08:28.550 --> 00:08:31.129 this isn't just a Democratic issue. The GOP side 00:08:31.129 --> 00:08:33.610 is dealing with the exact same structural fracturing. 00:08:33.730 --> 00:08:36.289 Oh, for sure. The reports highlight Trump's dilemma 00:08:36.289 --> 00:08:39.090 in the Texas Senate race. He is caught between 00:08:39.090 --> 00:08:41.230 endorsing the traditional establishment figure, 00:08:41.490 --> 00:08:44.940 John Cornyn. or the Maggi favorite, Ken Paxton. 00:08:45.120 --> 00:08:47.220 Still a lose -lose for him. Right. If he backed 00:08:47.220 --> 00:08:49.820 Cornyn, the base revolts. If he backs Paxton, 00:08:49.919 --> 00:08:53.220 he risks losing the general election. It's such 00:08:53.220 --> 00:08:56.340 a headache that in Oklahoma, Trump is actively 00:08:56.340 --> 00:08:59.179 trying to forestall a messy primary entirely. 00:08:59.259 --> 00:09:02.379 Oh, so? By simply anointing Kevin Hearn to take 00:09:02.379 --> 00:09:04.820 over Markway and Mullen's Senate seat, assuming 00:09:04.820 --> 00:09:08.200 Mullen heads over to lead DHS. It is just institutional 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:11.159 chaos everywhere you look. And amidst all this 00:09:11.159 --> 00:09:13.460 structural political maneuvering, the sources 00:09:13.460 --> 00:09:16.340 highlight a true wild card that just resurfaced. 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:19.399 Oh, yes. And it perfectly captures the bizarre 00:09:19.399 --> 00:09:21.559 nature of the current landscape. Wait, I'm so 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:22.779 glad you brought this up because I wanted to 00:09:22.779 --> 00:09:24.899 marvel at this for a second. It's crazy. It really 00:09:24.899 --> 00:09:27.740 is. The House Oversight Committee, led by James 00:09:27.740 --> 00:09:31.100 Comer, is subpoenaing Tova Noel. Now, she was 00:09:31.100 --> 00:09:33.419 one of the guards on duty the night Jeffrey Epstein 00:09:33.419 --> 00:09:36.759 died. Right. The recently disclosed files show 00:09:36.759 --> 00:09:40.299 about $12 ,000 in highly suspicious cash deposits 00:09:40.299 --> 00:09:43.279 to her account, including one just 10 days prior 00:09:43.279 --> 00:09:46.340 to his death. Which is already a red flag. Exactly. 00:09:46.820 --> 00:09:49.200 And then you add to that a brief flash of orange 00:09:49.200 --> 00:09:51.940 cloth seen on surveillance video near the cell 00:09:51.940 --> 00:09:55.580 and her incredibly bizarre web searches for furniture 00:09:55.580 --> 00:09:58.350 while on the job. I mean you can't make this 00:09:58.350 --> 00:10:01.129 stuff up. You really can. Imagine being on duty 00:10:01.129 --> 00:10:03.649 the night the most high -profile prisoner in 00:10:03.649 --> 00:10:07.090 the world dies and you're like Googling sofas. 00:10:07.350 --> 00:10:10.070 It adds an almost surreal layer to the institutional 00:10:10.070 --> 00:10:12.590 distrust. But, you know, this desperation for 00:10:12.590 --> 00:10:14.610 control that we are seeing in the Senate races 00:10:14.610 --> 00:10:17.210 and committee hearings is bleeding directly into 00:10:17.210 --> 00:10:18.990 how the government is interacting with the private 00:10:18.990 --> 00:10:20.870 sector. Yeah, let's talk about the TikTok deal. 00:10:21.009 --> 00:10:23.750 The reports detail some incredibly heavy handed 00:10:23.750 --> 00:10:26.129 corporate interventions by Trump regarding TikTok. 00:10:26.330 --> 00:10:29.149 Right. The sources describe a broker deal valuing 00:10:29.149 --> 00:10:31.929 the U .S. side of TikTok at 14 billion dollars. 00:10:31.970 --> 00:10:34.610 And this was arranged with major tech industry 00:10:34.610 --> 00:10:36.610 figures like Larry Ellison and Michael Dell. 00:10:37.009 --> 00:10:38.830 But the detail that really stands out is the 00:10:38.830 --> 00:10:43.350 fee. Yes. The inclusion of an unprecedented $10 00:10:43.350 --> 00:10:46.909 billion bribe fee. And that is the exact term 00:10:46.909 --> 00:10:48.990 the source uses, by the way. Quote, quote, bribe 00:10:48.990 --> 00:10:51.750 fee. Exactly. Paid directly to the US Treasury 00:10:51.750 --> 00:10:54.090 simply for the privilege of the deal being allowed 00:10:54.090 --> 00:10:57.929 to go forward. The sources frame this as an essentially 00:10:57.929 --> 00:11:00.169 communist approach to private markets, where 00:11:00.169 --> 00:11:02.370 the government is deeply intervening in the means 00:11:02.370 --> 00:11:05.470 of production and just demanding a cut. And you 00:11:05.470 --> 00:11:08.730 contrast that $10 billion tech shakedown with 00:11:08.730 --> 00:11:11.289 what's happening in the old economy. The reports 00:11:11.289 --> 00:11:14.289 note Trump opened up millions of acres of federal 00:11:14.289 --> 00:11:16.750 land for coal mining auctions. And what happened? 00:11:17.049 --> 00:11:19.490 Nobody bid. Well, almost nobody. Wait, really? 00:11:19.710 --> 00:11:22.029 Yeah, the Navajo Transitional Electric Company 00:11:22.029 --> 00:11:24.429 submitted a bid for one single cent per ton. 00:11:24.649 --> 00:11:26.970 One cent. One cent. Which the government promptly 00:11:26.970 --> 00:11:29.230 rejected. The power companies flat out refused 00:11:29.230 --> 00:11:31.149 to bid. Why wouldn't they want the land? Because 00:11:31.149 --> 00:11:33.950 you cannot power a 21st century artificial intelligence 00:11:33.950 --> 00:11:36.929 data center with 19th century coal. They want 00:11:36.929 --> 00:11:39.929 modern power for modern tech. Wow. Which brings 00:11:39.929 --> 00:11:42.629 us to, honestly, the most disruptive force in 00:11:42.629 --> 00:11:45.009 this entire stack of sources, artificial intelligence. 00:11:45.210 --> 00:11:47.690 Yeah. Wait, I'm looking at the notes here, quoting 00:11:47.690 --> 00:11:50.129 volunteer CEO Alex Karp, and I actually have 00:11:50.129 --> 00:11:53.250 to challenge this thesis based on the other data 00:11:53.250 --> 00:11:55.769 in our own stack. OK, let's unpack this. What 00:11:55.769 --> 00:11:58.350 does he say? Karp claims that AI is primarily 00:11:58.350 --> 00:12:01.330 going to disrupt humanity's trained, largely 00:12:01.330 --> 00:12:03.970 Democratic voters. He's essentially arguing it 00:12:03.970 --> 00:12:06.750 will automate away the laptop class, reducing 00:12:06.750 --> 00:12:09.529 their economic power while actually increasing 00:12:09.529 --> 00:12:12.870 the power of vocationally trained working class 00:12:12.870 --> 00:12:15.110 Republican voters. Right, so he's suggesting 00:12:15.110 --> 00:12:17.929 this divide where the physical blue -collar world 00:12:17.929 --> 00:12:21.330 remains untouched by algorithms. But that completely 00:12:21.330 --> 00:12:23.710 ignores the physical reality of what AI is doing 00:12:23.710 --> 00:12:25.610 right now. Yeah, that's a good point. The very 00:12:25.610 --> 00:12:28.269 same reports detail the rise of dark factories 00:12:28.269 --> 00:12:31.549 in China. These are massive manufacturing centers 00:12:31.549 --> 00:12:33.629 that literally operate with the lights off. Because 00:12:33.629 --> 00:12:36.950 there's no one inside. Exactly. Zero humans working 00:12:36.950 --> 00:12:39.490 inside just AI -driven robots building things 00:12:39.490 --> 00:12:42.779 in the dark. that is blue collar work disappearing 00:12:42.779 --> 00:12:44.419 overnight. And it's not just factory floors. 00:12:44.679 --> 00:12:46.500 Look at the military data. Right, the drones. 00:12:46.820 --> 00:12:49.539 The sources mention the XBAT and the Anduril 00:12:49.539 --> 00:12:53.059 Fury, which are fully autonomous AI -driven fighter 00:12:53.059 --> 00:12:57.259 jets. AI is absolutely coming for highly skilled, 00:12:57.559 --> 00:13:00.399 traditionally manly jobs, too. It isn't just 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:03.279 coming for middle management and, like, copywriters. 00:13:03.480 --> 00:13:04.980 If we connect this to the bigger picture, that 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:07.659 is an... Excellent point and it highlights exactly 00:13:07.659 --> 00:13:10.740 why AI is poised to become the ultimate political 00:13:10.740 --> 00:13:13.480 wedge issue over the next decade, right? It isn't 00:13:13.480 --> 00:13:15.779 gonna respect party lines and it isn't gonna 00:13:15.779 --> 00:13:18.360 care what color your collar is Yeah, and because 00:13:18.360 --> 00:13:20.379 it threatens everyone equally you are gonna see 00:13:20.379 --> 00:13:23.539 politicians weaponize it to appease that anxious 00:13:23.539 --> 00:13:25.440 electorate We talked about earlier, but how do 00:13:25.440 --> 00:13:27.919 they actually weaponize it? Well, the sources 00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:31.120 outline a few highly probable scenarios first 00:13:31.320 --> 00:13:33.799 Remember that global oil bathtub in the Quad 00:13:33.799 --> 00:13:36.620 3 stagflation? Yeah, the expensive gas. As energy 00:13:36.620 --> 00:13:39.419 prices inevitably spike, politicians will start 00:13:39.419 --> 00:13:41.860 blaming these massive AI data centers for your 00:13:41.860 --> 00:13:44.799 high electricity bills. Oh, that's smart. Politically 00:13:44.799 --> 00:13:47.580 speaking, I mean. It's a remarkably easy political 00:13:47.580 --> 00:13:49.740 sell to point at a tech billionaire's server 00:13:49.740 --> 00:13:52.700 farm and say, that's why your AC bill is so high. 00:13:53.340 --> 00:13:56.500 Second, watch for a major push for strict legal 00:13:56.500 --> 00:13:59.940 liability. The sources use the example of an 00:13:59.940 --> 00:14:03.100 AI doctor. If an AI makes a medical mistake, 00:14:03.559 --> 00:14:05.500 politicians will push to ensure the hospital 00:14:05.500 --> 00:14:09.179 faces the exact same catastrophic malpractice 00:14:09.179 --> 00:14:12.639 liability as a human doctor. Ah, so using the 00:14:12.639 --> 00:14:16.019 law to slow it down. Exactly. By forcing organizations 00:14:16.019 --> 00:14:19.500 to hold full legal liability for AI errors, they 00:14:19.500 --> 00:14:22.480 can intentionally slow the adoption of the technology 00:14:22.480 --> 00:14:25.500 in order to protect jobs. So we've spent a lot 00:14:25.500 --> 00:14:28.279 of time talking about how macroeconomic stagflation 00:14:28.279 --> 00:14:31.139 and AI are completely upending how we work, what 00:14:31.139 --> 00:14:33.159 our money is worth, and who governs us. A lot 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:35.379 of heavy stuff. Yeah. But if these massive forces 00:14:35.379 --> 00:14:37.559 are changing how we build things and how we afford 00:14:37.559 --> 00:14:39.960 things, they are also colliding to completely 00:14:39.960 --> 00:14:42.000 rewire what we do when we just want to turn our 00:14:42.000 --> 00:14:44.139 brains off. Which brings us to the attention 00:14:44.139 --> 00:14:46.240 economy. The battle for your limited free time. 00:14:46.519 --> 00:14:49.200 Exactly. Let's look at the 2026 Oscars. On the 00:14:49.200 --> 00:14:51.679 surface, it was a fascinating night. One battle 00:14:51.679 --> 00:14:53.759 after another beat out the heavily nominated 00:14:53.759 --> 00:14:56.240 sinners for Best Picture, taking home six statues 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.379 to four. A big sweep. Yeah. We saw Michael B. 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:01.960 Jordan pull a massive upset over Timothee Chalamet 00:15:01.960 --> 00:15:04.460 for Best Actor. That was a surprise. It was. 00:15:05.240 --> 00:15:07.460 And Autumn Durrell Archipaugh made history as 00:15:07.460 --> 00:15:09.610 the first woman. and the first woman of color 00:15:09.610 --> 00:15:12.669 to win Best Cinematography for her work on Sinners. 00:15:13.149 --> 00:15:15.350 We even had a historic tie in the live action 00:15:15.350 --> 00:15:18.370 short category. And that very tart, memorable 00:15:18.370 --> 00:15:20.950 jab from Kieran Culkin about a missing Sean Penn. 00:15:21.250 --> 00:15:24.590 Yes. It is the ultimate spectacle of Hollywood 00:15:24.590 --> 00:15:27.250 glamour. But when you look at the Axios and Pew 00:15:27.250 --> 00:15:30.570 research data provided, it paints a very harsh, 00:15:30.950 --> 00:15:33.149 sobering reality behind all that glitz. It really 00:15:33.149 --> 00:15:36.080 does. By almost every metric. The traditional 00:15:36.080 --> 00:15:38.220 movie industry is collapsing. The numbers are 00:15:38.220 --> 00:15:41.039 brutal. They really are. The 2025 domestic box 00:15:41.039 --> 00:15:44.259 office was only $8 .6 billion. But revenue numbers 00:15:44.259 --> 00:15:46.279 can be deceiving because they depend on inflation 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:49.200 and rising ticket prices. If you look at pure 00:15:49.200 --> 00:15:51.799 attendance, actual human beings getting out of 00:15:51.799 --> 00:15:54.039 their cars and walking into a theater, ticket 00:15:54.039 --> 00:15:57.639 sales dropped to $769 million. Wow. That is a 00:15:57.639 --> 00:16:01.799 51 % plunge from their peak in 2002. AMC stock 00:16:01.799 --> 00:16:03.879 is currently trading around a single dollar to 00:16:03.879 --> 00:16:06.570 share. A dollar. And it's hitting the production 00:16:06.570 --> 00:16:09.730 side, too. Filming permits in Los Angeles have 00:16:09.730 --> 00:16:13.570 plummeted 49 % since 2018. So where is all that 00:16:13.570 --> 00:16:16.610 studio money going? They are redirecting their 00:16:16.610 --> 00:16:19.309 massive budgets away from traditional cinema 00:16:19.309 --> 00:16:21.850 and pouring it into live sports. You know, it 00:16:21.850 --> 00:16:23.970 makes total sense when you think about the value 00:16:23.970 --> 00:16:26.750 proposition for you, the listener. I think about 00:16:26.750 --> 00:16:29.029 it like the difference between public transit 00:16:29.029 --> 00:16:32.389 and owning a car. Oh, I like that analogy. Yeah. 00:16:32.470 --> 00:16:35.059 If you go to the theater, it's like taking you 00:16:35.059 --> 00:16:37.759 operate on their schedule. A single ticket costs 00:16:37.759 --> 00:16:41.000 you between $13 and $18 for a fixed 200 -minute 00:16:41.000 --> 00:16:42.840 ride. You sit with strangers, you watch the movie, 00:16:42.860 --> 00:16:45.799 you go home. Right. Meanwhile, streaming is like 00:16:45.799 --> 00:16:48.759 having a car in your own driveway. The data shows 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:51.379 the average household is spending $69 a month 00:16:51.379 --> 00:16:53.379 for four different streaming services. Yeah, 00:16:53.600 --> 00:16:56.440 that infinite buffet. Exactly. The upfront cost 00:16:56.440 --> 00:16:59.000 might be a little higher but the marginal cost 00:16:59.000 --> 00:17:01.240 of taking a trip of watching a movie at 2 a .m. 00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:03.980 in your pajamas is zero. That is a perfect way 00:17:03.980 --> 00:17:07.349 to frame it. The traditional theater model simply 00:17:07.349 --> 00:17:10.450 cannot compete with the sheer volume and convenience 00:17:10.450 --> 00:17:12.890 of the streaming ecosystem. It's impossible. 00:17:13.009 --> 00:17:15.210 But it goes deeper than just convenience. It 00:17:15.210 --> 00:17:17.789 connects directly back to that Quad 3 stagflation 00:17:17.789 --> 00:17:19.950 we talked about in the very beginning. Oh, interesting. 00:17:20.309 --> 00:17:22.890 How so? Well, when your everyday life feels stressful, 00:17:23.210 --> 00:17:24.890 when your grocery bill is up and your mortgage 00:17:24.890 --> 00:17:27.369 rate is volatile, consumer psychology changes. 00:17:27.470 --> 00:17:29.329 Oh, that makes sense. Yeah, you don't want a 00:17:29.329 --> 00:17:32.450 rigid, expensive $50 night out that requires 00:17:32.450 --> 00:17:34.430 driving and parking and dealing with crowds. 00:17:34.730 --> 00:17:38.029 You want cheap, limitless comfort. You want escapism. 00:17:38.369 --> 00:17:41.910 Exactly. We no longer want the 200 minute ritual. 00:17:42.230 --> 00:17:45.170 We want the 10 hour binge on our own schedule, 00:17:45.609 --> 00:17:48.109 safely insulated in our own homes. I mean, ask 00:17:48.109 --> 00:17:50.420 yourself. When is the last time you actually 00:17:50.420 --> 00:17:53.059 drove to a theater versus just firing up a streaming 00:17:53.059 --> 00:17:55.660 app? The technology didn't just change the delivery 00:17:55.660 --> 00:17:58.519 mechanism. It changed our fundamental relationship 00:17:58.519 --> 00:18:00.900 with entertainment. It really is incredible when 00:18:00.900 --> 00:18:02.859 you step back and look at the whole board here. 00:18:02.940 --> 00:18:05.839 We started this deep dive looking at a bombed 00:18:05.839 --> 00:18:08.420 coral island in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting 00:18:08.420 --> 00:18:12.160 the global oil supply. We traced how that macroeconomic 00:18:12.160 --> 00:18:15.579 pressure, that quad three stagflation, is fracturing 00:18:15.579 --> 00:18:18.920 domestic politics, causing 85 -year -old incumbents 00:18:18.920 --> 00:18:22.359 to cling to power and creating bizarre, heavy 00:18:22.359 --> 00:18:24.920 -handed government interventions in tech. Like 00:18:24.920 --> 00:18:27.799 the TikTok bribe fee. Right. We saw how the AI 00:18:27.799 --> 00:18:30.460 revolution is creating humanless dark factories 00:18:30.460 --> 00:18:32.900 that threaten to reshape the entire American 00:18:32.900 --> 00:18:35.319 workforce, regardless of whether you wear a blue 00:18:35.319 --> 00:18:37.440 collar or a white one. Truly common for everybody. 00:18:37.640 --> 00:18:41.019 And finally, we followed those exact same technological 00:18:41.019 --> 00:18:42.960 and economic pressures right into your living 00:18:42.960 --> 00:18:45.519 room, where the desire for cheap, convenient 00:18:45.519 --> 00:18:48.579 escapism is quietly putting the traditional movie 00:18:48.579 --> 00:18:50.599 theater out of business. It is a continuous, 00:18:51.019 --> 00:18:53.420 unbroken chain of disruption. Yeah. But, you 00:18:53.420 --> 00:18:56.000 know, if we connect all these threads, the AI 00:18:56.000 --> 00:18:58.140 revolution, the changing nature of entertainment, 00:18:58.519 --> 00:19:00.900 the economic pressures driving us to our couches, 00:19:01.279 --> 00:19:04.119 it raises an incredibly provocative question 00:19:04.119 --> 00:19:06.160 about where we are heading next. OK, what's the 00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:08.240 next link in the chain? Well, think about it. 00:19:08.640 --> 00:19:11.619 If AI is already capable of replacing highly 00:19:11.619 --> 00:19:15.220 trained fighter pilots in the military, and it's 00:19:15.220 --> 00:19:17.359 already running those massive dark factories 00:19:17.359 --> 00:19:20.660 in China completely without human intervention, 00:19:21.680 --> 00:19:24.740 and if streaming algorithms have already successfully 00:19:24.740 --> 00:19:27.079 replaced the communal movie theater experience, 00:19:27.849 --> 00:19:31.250 How long until AI starts generating those 10 00:19:31.250 --> 00:19:34.369 -hour streaming binges entirely on its own? Oh, 00:19:34.369 --> 00:19:36.490 wow. Wait, Rick. I mean, we just spent a whole 00:19:36.490 --> 00:19:38.190 segment talking about the Oscars, celebrating 00:19:38.190 --> 00:19:40.130 human actors and brilliant cinematographers. 00:19:40.190 --> 00:19:43.230 Yeah. But will we even need the Oscars in a decade? 00:19:43.730 --> 00:19:45.750 Or will every single household just tromp their 00:19:45.750 --> 00:19:48.930 television and generate their own perfectly customized 00:19:48.930 --> 00:19:52.160 algorithmically tailored best picture? That is 00:19:52.160 --> 00:19:54.960 a wild thought. A personalized masterpiece for 00:19:54.960 --> 00:19:57.640 an audience of one acting as the ultimate escapism 00:19:57.640 --> 00:20:00.079 while the global oil back tub sloshes around 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:02.539 outside. It just goes to show that the distance 00:20:02.539 --> 00:20:04.759 between a geopolitical shockwave and the remote 00:20:04.759 --> 00:20:07.140 control in your hand is basically non -existent. 00:20:07.460 --> 00:20:09.079 Thank you for joining us on this journey today. 00:20:09.500 --> 00:20:11.460 Keep questioning the information around you and 00:20:11.460 --> 00:20:13.200 we'll catch you on the next deep dive.