WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.180 Welcome to today's deep dive. If you're joining 00:00:03.180 --> 00:00:06.040 us right now, you probably know that familiar 00:00:06.040 --> 00:00:08.679 kind of creeping feeling of information overload. 00:00:08.779 --> 00:00:11.480 Oh, absolutely. It is everywhere. Right. You 00:00:11.480 --> 00:00:13.400 want to be well informed. You want to understand 00:00:13.400 --> 00:00:16.140 the forces shaping your world. But sitting down 00:00:16.140 --> 00:00:18.800 to read a mountain of political newsletters and 00:00:18.800 --> 00:00:21.100 demographic research and investigative reports 00:00:21.100 --> 00:00:24.460 after a long day is, well, it's a lot to ask. 00:00:24.649 --> 00:00:27.370 It's exhausting. It really is. And that is exactly 00:00:27.370 --> 00:00:29.129 why we are here. We've gone through the stack 00:00:29.129 --> 00:00:31.690 and our mission today is to extract the most 00:00:31.690 --> 00:00:34.350 critical insights for you, minus the overwhelm. 00:00:34.530 --> 00:00:36.509 It's about finding the signal and the noise. 00:00:37.129 --> 00:00:39.590 And today, the signal we are picking up across 00:00:39.590 --> 00:00:42.770 all our sources is pointing to one massive overarching 00:00:42.770 --> 00:00:45.409 theme, and that is accountability and judgment 00:00:45.409 --> 00:00:47.890 in America. We're looking at how we judge our 00:00:47.890 --> 00:00:50.250 politicians, how political actions are justified 00:00:50.250 --> 00:00:52.549 on the global stage, and ultimately, as some 00:00:52.549 --> 00:00:54.829 really fascinating new data will show us, how 00:00:54.829 --> 00:00:57.409 incredibly harshly we judge each other. The lineup 00:00:57.409 --> 00:00:59.909 we've got for you today is honestly gripping. 00:01:00.509 --> 00:01:03.409 Our stack includes the widely read Electoral 00:01:03.409 --> 00:01:06.439 Vote News political newsletter, From March 11, 00:01:06.700 --> 00:01:10.680 2026, a deep dive investigative piece on a sitting 00:01:10.680 --> 00:01:13.760 U .S. congressman. and a brand new demographic 00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:17.019 report from Hedgeye that unpacked some jaw -dropping 00:01:17.019 --> 00:01:19.299 Pew research data. And look, just a quick heads 00:01:19.299 --> 00:01:21.319 up before we dive in. Today's stack, especially 00:01:21.319 --> 00:01:23.180 the political newsletters we are looking at, 00:01:23.239 --> 00:01:25.500 they throw some serious punches. They really 00:01:25.500 --> 00:01:27.879 do. They use strong language and have very clear 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:31.019 biases. So our job today isn't to take a side 00:01:31.019 --> 00:01:33.599 or endorse these left or right wing views. We're 00:01:33.599 --> 00:01:35.640 just here to hold up a mirror to the narratives 00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:37.700 exactly as they're being pushed out there so 00:01:37.700 --> 00:01:39.700 you can see the full board. Well said. We're 00:01:39.700 --> 00:01:42.159 your guys to the material. Nothing more. Ah. 00:01:42.420 --> 00:01:44.700 So let's start with a story that perfectly illustrates 00:01:44.700 --> 00:01:47.620 this theme of accountability, specifically regarding 00:01:47.620 --> 00:01:50.359 the trust deficit in Washington. We're looking 00:01:50.359 --> 00:01:52.140 at the investigative piece on Representative 00:01:52.140 --> 00:01:54.159 Rob Bresnihan, a Republican from Pennsylvania. 00:01:54.599 --> 00:01:57.239 Let's rewind the tape to his 2024 campaign. Right. 00:01:57.319 --> 00:02:00.620 The campaign promises. Exactly. He ran on a very 00:02:00.620 --> 00:02:04.400 strict, very vocal promise to ban congressional 00:02:04.400 --> 00:02:07.010 stock trading. I mean, he even wrote a public 00:02:07.010 --> 00:02:10.189 letter to a local paper stating that it's fundamentally 00:02:10.189 --> 00:02:13.590 wrong for members of Congress to buy and sell 00:02:13.590 --> 00:02:16.729 stocks while voting on legislation that impacts 00:02:16.729 --> 00:02:19.449 those exact companies. Which is a highly popular 00:02:19.449 --> 00:02:21.590 stance. Banning congressional stock trading is 00:02:21.590 --> 00:02:24.530 one of those rare issues that pulls incredibly 00:02:24.530 --> 00:02:27.650 well across the entire political spectrum. Voters 00:02:27.650 --> 00:02:29.789 absolutely hate the idea of insider trading in 00:02:29.789 --> 00:02:32.259 Congress. They really do. But the reality of 00:02:32.259 --> 00:02:34.039 his time in office tells a totally different 00:02:34.039 --> 00:02:37.819 story. The investigation reveals that in 2025... 00:02:37.370 --> 00:02:39.889 While sitting as a member of Congress, Bresnahan 00:02:39.889 --> 00:02:44.569 made over 600 stock trades before finally suspending 00:02:44.569 --> 00:02:46.889 the practice toward the end of the year amid 00:02:46.889 --> 00:02:49.930 this massive wave of public criticism. Six hundred 00:02:49.930 --> 00:02:52.469 trades in a single year is a massive volume, 00:02:52.689 --> 00:02:54.569 especially after campaigning on a ban. And when 00:02:54.569 --> 00:02:57.789 you do that, you need an airtight defense. Bresnahan's 00:02:57.789 --> 00:02:59.830 core argument, which was repeated by his team 00:02:59.830 --> 00:03:02.610 multiple times, has been that he delegates absolutely 00:03:02.610 --> 00:03:04.650 everything to professional financial advisors. 00:03:04.710 --> 00:03:07.500 He claimed he has zero input. on day -to -day 00:03:07.500 --> 00:03:10.479 trading. He went so far as to include a line 00:03:10.479 --> 00:03:13.759 in his periodic transaction reports explicitly 00:03:13.759 --> 00:03:16.539 asserting that he has no role in and is not informed 00:03:16.539 --> 00:03:19.180 of specific investment decisions prior to their 00:03:19.180 --> 00:03:21.719 execution. Okay, let's unpack this. Because here's 00:03:21.719 --> 00:03:23.840 where it gets really interesting. The investigative 00:03:23.840 --> 00:03:26.860 reporters unearthed a little noticed and apparently 00:03:26.860 --> 00:03:31.219 now deleted April 2025 radio interview with a 00:03:31.219 --> 00:03:34.659 local host named Bob Cordaro. And in that audio, 00:03:34.939 --> 00:03:37.710 Bresnahan says, and I quote, I mean, I meet with 00:03:37.710 --> 00:03:39.409 my financial advisor. We talk about, you know, 00:03:39.469 --> 00:03:41.210 what different positions are coming up. That 00:03:41.210 --> 00:03:44.250 audio is the smoking gun of this piece because 00:03:44.250 --> 00:03:47.169 it is a direct contradiction of his written legal 00:03:47.169 --> 00:03:49.490 assertions. If you are discussing what different 00:03:49.490 --> 00:03:51.550 positions are coming up, you are by definition 00:03:51.550 --> 00:03:54.370 not entirely walled off from the process. No, 00:03:54.370 --> 00:03:56.530 not at all. And this becomes a major issue when 00:03:56.530 --> 00:03:58.810 you look at the specific trades detailed in the 00:03:58.810 --> 00:04:01.330 report. We aren't talking about broad harmless 00:04:01.330 --> 00:04:04.569 index funds here. Exactly. The piece details 00:04:04.569 --> 00:04:07.770 that Bresnihan sold between $100 ,000 and $250 00:04:07.770 --> 00:04:10.550 ,000 in Pennsylvania healthcare -related bonds. 00:04:11.430 --> 00:04:14.629 Furthermore, he traded up to $130 ,000 in stock 00:04:14.629 --> 00:04:17.629 across four specific Medicaid providers. Wow. 00:04:18.089 --> 00:04:20.050 And the timing is what makes this radioactive. 00:04:20.329 --> 00:04:22.829 He made these specific health and Medicaid trades 00:04:22.829 --> 00:04:25.649 right before voting on massive Medicaid cuts 00:04:25.649 --> 00:04:28.370 in Congress. The optics are brutal. You have 00:04:28.370 --> 00:04:30.810 a congressman trading heavily in a specific sector 00:04:30.810 --> 00:04:33.550 just days before casting a vote that directly 00:04:33.550 --> 00:04:35.629 impacts the financial viability of that sector. 00:04:36.089 --> 00:04:38.910 Now his campaign, understandably, is pushing 00:04:38.910 --> 00:04:41.310 back fiercely on this. Yeah, they have to. His 00:04:41.310 --> 00:04:43.790 spokesman, Chris Pack, claimed the audio from 00:04:43.790 --> 00:04:45.790 that radio interview was just referring to a 00:04:45.790 --> 00:04:49.209 30 ,000 foot investment strategy. Pack likened 00:04:49.209 --> 00:04:52.519 it to a totally routine 401k risk tolerance meeting 00:04:52.519 --> 00:04:55.540 that any normal employee would have. But a member 00:04:55.540 --> 00:04:58.040 of Congress isn't a normal employee. How does 00:04:58.040 --> 00:05:00.439 a 30 ,000 foot view defense hold up when he's 00:05:00.439 --> 00:05:02.860 trading specific Medicaid stocks right before 00:05:02.860 --> 00:05:05.329 a Medicaid vote? It doesn't hold up well under 00:05:05.329 --> 00:05:07.709 scrutiny at all. And the source brings in Ted 00:05:07.709 --> 00:05:10.089 Rossman, a principal analyst at Bankrate, to 00:05:10.089 --> 00:05:12.829 explain why. Rossman points out that for a federal 00:05:12.829 --> 00:05:15.110 lawmaker, even sharing general thoughts on themes 00:05:15.110 --> 00:05:17.389 on the market is incredibly problematic. Because 00:05:17.389 --> 00:05:20.250 they have inside info. Precisely. Members of 00:05:20.250 --> 00:05:22.709 Congress possess material nonpublic information. 00:05:23.069 --> 00:05:25.569 They know what legislation is in committee, what 00:05:25.569 --> 00:05:28.449 is likely to pass, what regulatory actions are 00:05:28.449 --> 00:05:30.769 imminent. If a congressman tells his broker, 00:05:31.050 --> 00:05:32.949 I'm feeling bearish on health care right now. 00:05:32.970 --> 00:05:35.709 That isn't just a casual hunch, it's informed 00:05:35.709 --> 00:05:38.209 by insider knowledge. The campaign also tried 00:05:38.209 --> 00:05:40.569 a classic pivot, pointing out that Bresnihan's 00:05:40.569 --> 00:05:42.889 Democratic opponent in the upcoming midterms, 00:05:43.129 --> 00:05:45.649 Paige Cognetti, used to work for Goldman Sachs 00:05:45.649 --> 00:05:48.129 and has millions in investment holdings herself. 00:05:48.509 --> 00:05:50.709 Which is a standard political deflection, but 00:05:50.709 --> 00:05:53.069 it doesn't erase the fact that Bresnihan explicitly 00:05:53.069 --> 00:05:55.769 campaigned on ending this exact behavior. So 00:05:55.769 --> 00:05:58.170 to bring this back to you listening, why should 00:05:58.170 --> 00:06:00.680 you care about one congressman's portfolio? Think 00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:02.560 about the constituent mentioned in the piece 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:04.740 who confronted Bresnahan during a tele -town 00:06:04.740 --> 00:06:07.920 hall. She didn't use any complex financial jargon. 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:10.899 No. She just said, flat out, I didn't send you 00:06:10.899 --> 00:06:13.740 there to trade. Bresnahan represents a highly 00:06:13.740 --> 00:06:16.279 competitive, slightly Republican -leaning district. 00:06:16.680 --> 00:06:19.879 The report notes that 54 % of his voters already 00:06:19.879 --> 00:06:22.300 know about these trades. They are paying close 00:06:22.300 --> 00:06:24.120 attention because it strikes at the fundamental 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:26.459 question of governance. Are you serving the public 00:06:26.459 --> 00:06:29.560 interest or your own portfolio? That trust deficit 00:06:29.560 --> 00:06:32.459 at the local level is palpable. But the electoral 00:06:32.459 --> 00:06:34.720 vote newsletter transitions us from domestic 00:06:34.720 --> 00:06:37.600 financial accountability to a much larger global 00:06:37.600 --> 00:06:40.759 stage. We're looking at the ongoing U .S. military 00:06:40.759 --> 00:06:43.519 intervention in Iran, which is now entering its 00:06:43.519 --> 00:06:45.620 second week. Yeah. And the newsletter offers 00:06:45.620 --> 00:06:47.920 a blistering critique of how the executive branch 00:06:47.920 --> 00:06:50.139 is attempting to justify this conflict to the 00:06:50.139 --> 00:06:52.199 American public. It's a fascinating read because 00:06:52.199 --> 00:06:55.269 it really highlights the absolute message maze 00:06:55.269 --> 00:06:57.629 coming out of Washington. The newsletter argues 00:06:57.629 --> 00:07:00.129 the administration has completely failed the 00:07:00.129 --> 00:07:03.410 politics of geopolitics 101. Instead of a clear 00:07:03.410 --> 00:07:06.209 unified objective, high ranking officials have 00:07:06.209 --> 00:07:09.269 offered 10 different and often widely conflicting 00:07:09.269 --> 00:07:11.949 rationales for why the U .S. is currently engaged 00:07:11.949 --> 00:07:14.410 in this conflict. What's fascinating here is 00:07:14.410 --> 00:07:17.209 the sheer panic that multiple shifting excuses 00:07:17.209 --> 00:07:20.269 implies. When you group these rationales together, 00:07:20.490 --> 00:07:22.550 you see the administration throwing everything 00:07:22.550 --> 00:07:25.050 at the wall to see what sticks. First, you have 00:07:25.050 --> 00:07:27.870 the standard geopolitical talking points. They 00:07:27.870 --> 00:07:30.050 claim the goal is to stop Iran from developing 00:07:30.050 --> 00:07:32.410 nuclear weapons. But hold on. The newsletter 00:07:32.410 --> 00:07:35.029 points out a massive contradiction right there 00:07:35.029 --> 00:07:37.290 with the nukes. Didn't the president just recently 00:07:37.290 --> 00:07:39.610 claim that Iran's nuclear program was already 00:07:39.610 --> 00:07:42.230 wiped out? Yes, exactly. How do they justify 00:07:42.230 --> 00:07:44.850 a new military intervention to stop a program 00:07:44.850 --> 00:07:47.019 they already told the public was destroyed? That's 00:07:47.019 --> 00:07:49.560 exactly the kind of glaring inconsistency the 00:07:49.560 --> 00:07:51.360 newsletter highlights. And the contradictions 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:53.839 only get worse. They cite conventional weapons, 00:07:54.180 --> 00:07:56.199 with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating the 00:07:56.199 --> 00:07:58.500 military needs to deprive Iran of short range 00:07:58.500 --> 00:08:00.779 ballistic missiles and naval threats. Right. 00:08:00.819 --> 00:08:02.759 That was reason number two. Then reason three, 00:08:03.160 --> 00:08:05.279 Rubio claimed the conflict was instigated by 00:08:05.279 --> 00:08:08.160 Israel, a claim he then denied and which the 00:08:08.160 --> 00:08:11.180 president also pushed back on. Reason four is 00:08:11.180 --> 00:08:14.240 the economic power argument that Iran controls 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:16.600 too much oil. OK, so that's What's four? What's 00:08:16.600 --> 00:08:19.959 five? Five is the imminent threat. Rubio claimed 00:08:19.959 --> 00:08:22.899 Iran poses an immediate threat to the U .S. But 00:08:22.899 --> 00:08:25.579 in the same news cycle, Senator Tom Cotton argued 00:08:25.579 --> 00:08:28.120 that Iran has been an imminent threat for 47 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:32.000 years. Which leads right into reason six. The 00:08:32.000 --> 00:08:33.899 president pivoted to a punishment narrative, 00:08:34.559 --> 00:08:36.960 stating the intervention is retribution for 47 00:08:36.960 --> 00:08:39.580 years of killing Americans, dating all the way 00:08:39.580 --> 00:08:42.519 back to the deposition of the Shah in 1979. So 00:08:42.519 --> 00:08:44.940 it's an imminent threat, but it's also a half 00:08:44.940 --> 00:08:47.970 century old grudge. It is incredibly messy messaging. 00:08:48.529 --> 00:08:51.169 Then you have reason seven, regime change. They 00:08:51.169 --> 00:08:53.169 acknowledge the Ayatollah's oppressive regime, 00:08:53.529 --> 00:08:55.850 though the source heavily questions the lack 00:08:55.850 --> 00:08:58.529 of any actual succession plan. Right. But the 00:08:58.529 --> 00:09:00.470 newsletter really digs into what I would call 00:09:00.470 --> 00:09:02.970 the wild card rationales. And these are jarring. 00:09:03.269 --> 00:09:05.830 Reason eight, over a hundred soldiers have filed 00:09:05.830 --> 00:09:08.009 formal complaints stating their superior officers 00:09:08.009 --> 00:09:10.610 told them the war's actual purpose is to bring 00:09:10.610 --> 00:09:13.129 about Armageddon or the end of days. I have to 00:09:13.129 --> 00:09:15.740 stop you there. A hundred soldiers formally complaining 00:09:15.740 --> 00:09:18.320 about an Armageddon directive? That is staggering. 00:09:18.740 --> 00:09:21.299 It is. The newsletter alleges this is tied to 00:09:21.299 --> 00:09:23.659 directives from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. 00:09:24.220 --> 00:09:26.659 For soldiers of different faiths, or no faith 00:09:26.659 --> 00:09:29.139 at all, being told they are fighting to trigger 00:09:29.139 --> 00:09:32.500 a specific religious apocalypse is deeply unsettling. 00:09:32.620 --> 00:09:34.620 It's terrible for unit cohesion. Completely. 00:09:35.259 --> 00:09:38.159 And Reason 9 is just as wild. The president posted 00:09:38.159 --> 00:09:40.500 on social media that the intervention was necessary 00:09:40.500 --> 00:09:43.539 because Iran tried to interfere in the 2020 and 00:09:43.539 --> 00:09:47.120 2024 elections to stop him, essentially framing 00:09:47.120 --> 00:09:50.120 a global military conflict as a stop the steal 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:52.610 operation. And finally, reason 10 is what the 00:09:52.610 --> 00:09:55.889 source calls incompetence or distraction. They 00:09:55.889 --> 00:09:58.330 ironically cite a 2011 quote from the president 00:09:58.330 --> 00:10:00.409 himself, back when he was criticizing Barack 00:10:00.409 --> 00:10:03.029 Obama, saying that presidents who don't know 00:10:03.029 --> 00:10:05.509 how to negotiate start wars with Iran just to 00:10:05.509 --> 00:10:08.009 get reelected. Talk about a quote aging poorly. 00:10:08.399 --> 00:10:11.039 But the shifting rationale isn't just a PR problem. 00:10:11.460 --> 00:10:13.639 The real -world consequences detailed in the 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:16.220 source are immediate and devastating. Absolutely. 00:10:16.340 --> 00:10:18.419 Look at the global oil market. The administration 00:10:18.419 --> 00:10:20.679 is reportedly considering tapping the Strategic 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:23.460 Petroleum Reserve and even seizing Iranian oil 00:10:23.460 --> 00:10:26.720 fields just to prevent a massive spike in domestic 00:10:26.720 --> 00:10:29.669 gas prices. The political risk of that strategy 00:10:29.669 --> 00:10:32.750 is immense. If American forces take casualties 00:10:32.750 --> 00:10:35.450 while actively trying to secure foreign oil fields, 00:10:35.870 --> 00:10:38.090 the public perception instantly hardens into 00:10:38.090 --> 00:10:39.850 a narrative that soldiers are dying for oil. 00:10:40.710 --> 00:10:43.350 That is historically a very difficult position 00:10:43.350 --> 00:10:45.570 for any administration to sustain. And the human 00:10:45.570 --> 00:10:47.769 tragedies are already unfolding. The newsletter 00:10:47.769 --> 00:10:50.590 decals a horrific incident in Tehran where a 00:10:50.590 --> 00:10:53.009 U .S. missile reportedly went off course and 00:10:53.009 --> 00:10:55.549 struck a girls' school, killing 149 students. 00:10:55.610 --> 00:10:58.250 It's just awful. The military says they are investigating, 00:10:58.309 --> 00:11:01.789 but the global blowback from 149 civilian casualties 00:11:01.789 --> 00:11:04.309 in a single strike is impossible to overstate. 00:11:04.629 --> 00:11:07.169 It isolates the U .S. on the world stage instantly. 00:11:07.399 --> 00:11:10.259 And as if the stakes weren't high enough, the 00:11:10.259 --> 00:11:12.379 administration's own Caroline Leavitt went on 00:11:12.379 --> 00:11:14.419 record, stating that reinstituting the military 00:11:14.419 --> 00:11:16.700 draft is on the table. Floating the idea of a 00:11:16.700 --> 00:11:19.460 draft in the current political climate is a massive, 00:11:19.879 --> 00:11:22.940 incredibly risky gamble. Again, just as a reminder, 00:11:23.019 --> 00:11:25.679 we are reporting the analysis presented by the 00:11:25.679 --> 00:11:28.100 Electoral Vote newsletter here. But what this 00:11:28.100 --> 00:11:31.100 source illustrates so vividly is the dangerous 00:11:31.100 --> 00:11:34.580 collision between chaotic public messaging and 00:11:34.580 --> 00:11:38.370 the harsh unforgiving reality of global conflict. 00:11:39.230 --> 00:11:40.990 You can't spin a missile strike or a volatile 00:11:40.990 --> 00:11:43.409 oil market. No, you can't. So we've looked at 00:11:43.409 --> 00:11:45.649 accountability for lawmakers trading stocks and 00:11:45.649 --> 00:11:48.129 the struggle to justify executive action overseas. 00:11:48.950 --> 00:11:51.169 Let's bring it back stateside, down to the machinery 00:11:51.169 --> 00:11:53.370 of the justice system in the ballot box, where 00:11:53.370 --> 00:11:55.529 the wheels of accountability actually do seem 00:11:55.529 --> 00:11:58.159 to be turning. They turn slowly, but they do 00:11:58.159 --> 00:12:00.879 turn. The newsletter highlights a rather stunning 00:12:00.879 --> 00:12:03.340 update on Ed Martin, the former acting U .S. 00:12:03.440 --> 00:12:05.980 attorney for D .C. He is currently facing the 00:12:05.980 --> 00:12:08.220 very real potential of losing his law license. 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:10.799 Why? The Disciplinary Council is coming after 00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:12.960 him because he sent a threatening letter to Georgetown 00:12:12.960 --> 00:12:15.320 Law School. He essentially told them the U .S. 00:12:15.399 --> 00:12:17.200 Attorney's Office would refuse to hire any of 00:12:17.200 --> 00:12:19.120 their graduates unless the school dropped its 00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:22.200 DEI program. Using the power of the U .S. Attorney's 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:24.759 Office to strong -arm a university's internal 00:12:24.759 --> 00:12:27.389 policies. Yeah. How did the disciplinary council 00:12:27.389 --> 00:12:30.879 react to that? Well, they investigated it as 00:12:30.879 --> 00:12:34.000 a clearly discriminatory threat, and Martin's 00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:37.419 response only made it worse. Instead of defending 00:12:37.419 --> 00:12:40.639 the policy through proper channels, he improperly 00:12:40.639 --> 00:12:43.299 wrote letters directly to D .C. Circuit judges 00:12:43.299 --> 00:12:45.799 complaining about the disciplinary council investigating 00:12:45.799 --> 00:12:49.179 him. It's a potent reminder that wielding power 00:12:49.179 --> 00:12:51.759 recklessly eventually invites professional and 00:12:51.759 --> 00:12:54.360 legal scrutiny. OK, let's unpack this, because 00:12:54.360 --> 00:12:56.159 accountability isn't just happening in closed 00:12:56.159 --> 00:12:58.639 -door disciplinary hearings. happening loudly 00:12:58.639 --> 00:13:01.039 at the ballot box. The newsletter provides some 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:03.440 fascinating recent election data showing voters 00:13:03.440 --> 00:13:05.460 exercising their judgment in ways that really 00:13:05.460 --> 00:13:08.299 defy conventional wisdom. Yes, the local elections. 00:13:08.460 --> 00:13:10.559 Let's look at Georgia's 14th congressional district. 00:13:10.700 --> 00:13:14.580 This is a deep red area, Marjorie Taylor Greene's 00:13:14.580 --> 00:13:17.240 former seat. In the Republican primary, voters 00:13:17.240 --> 00:13:20.000 outright rejected former state senator Colton 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:22.340 Moore. The newsletter literally refers to him 00:13:22.340 --> 00:13:25.120 as the crazy pants candidate, noting his behavior 00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:27.220 was so extreme he was previously banned from 00:13:27.220 --> 00:13:29.700 even speaking on the state House floor. Wow. 00:13:30.080 --> 00:13:33.039 The primary voters clearly had enough. They chose 00:13:33.039 --> 00:13:35.899 Clay Fuller, a more establishment law and order 00:13:35.899 --> 00:13:38.659 candidate who had Trump's endorsement. Fuller 00:13:38.659 --> 00:13:42.500 is now facing Democrat Sean Harris, a black retired 00:13:42.500 --> 00:13:44.960 brigadier general running a fascinating campaign 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.799 where he identifies simply as a Georgian rather 00:13:47.799 --> 00:13:50.080 than leaning heavily into partisan labels. He 00:13:50.080 --> 00:13:52.159 really shows a limit to what primary voters will 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:54.080 tolerate when it comes to legislative theatrics. 00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:56.299 And then you have New Hampshire, a special election 00:13:56.299 --> 00:13:59.139 for a vacant state house seat. Just saw a massive 00:13:59.139 --> 00:14:02.179 30 point swing. A huge margin. Democrat Bobby 00:14:02.179 --> 00:14:04.159 Boadman won a district that Trump carried by 00:14:04.159 --> 00:14:07.700 26 points just two years prior in 2024. This 00:14:07.700 --> 00:14:09.620 letter includes a great little detail about that 00:14:09.620 --> 00:14:11.620 vacant seat, actually. The previous Republican 00:14:11.620 --> 00:14:13.659 likely resigned because New Hampshire legislators 00:14:13.659 --> 00:14:16.980 are famously only paid $100 a year. $100 a year? 00:14:17.139 --> 00:14:18.960 I mean, you couldn't pay me to commute in the 00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:21.259 snow for $100 a year, let alone run a state government. 00:14:21.799 --> 00:14:24.159 Honestly, no wonder they quit. Right. But jokes 00:14:24.159 --> 00:14:27.600 aside, a 30 -point swing in a hyperlocal race 00:14:27.600 --> 00:14:30.860 shows an electorate that is highly engaged and 00:14:30.860 --> 00:14:33.360 willing to wildly shift its judgment. It does. 00:14:33.759 --> 00:14:35.659 And in Mississippi Second District, you have 00:14:35.659 --> 00:14:38.080 Representative Benny Thompson routing a primary 00:14:38.080 --> 00:14:40.580 challenger with over 85 percent of the vote. 00:14:41.000 --> 00:14:43.639 The source attributes this massive win not just 00:14:43.639 --> 00:14:46.460 to his national profile, but to his ironclad 00:14:46.460 --> 00:14:49.179 reputation for excellent constituent services. 00:14:49.690 --> 00:14:52.350 It's a simple formula. Voters reward politicians 00:14:52.350 --> 00:14:54.129 who actually answer the phone and take care of 00:14:54.129 --> 00:14:56.389 their districts. So we've seen voters demanding 00:14:56.389 --> 00:14:58.610 accountability from Bresnahan on the stock trades. 00:14:58.970 --> 00:15:01.009 We've seen the struggle to justify a chaotic 00:15:01.009 --> 00:15:03.970 war. And we've seen local voters rejecting extremes 00:15:03.970 --> 00:15:07.250 and rewarding actual public service. But to understand 00:15:07.250 --> 00:15:09.769 why the public is judging its leaders so intensely 00:15:09.769 --> 00:15:12.429 right now, we need to look at how we're judging 00:15:12.429 --> 00:15:14.549 each other. This is where we bring in the hedge 00:15:14.549 --> 00:15:17.070 -eye report, which breaks down some truly eye 00:15:17.070 --> 00:15:20.350 -opening Pew research data. If we connect this 00:15:20.350 --> 00:15:22.610 demographic research to the broader political 00:15:22.610 --> 00:15:25.549 picture, the findings are staggering. It turns 00:15:25.549 --> 00:15:27.929 out, if we are judging our politicians harshly, 00:15:28.289 --> 00:15:30.669 it is because Americans are currently the most 00:15:30.669 --> 00:15:32.649 critical people in the world regarding their 00:15:32.649 --> 00:15:35.110 fellow citizens. The hard numbers here are a 00:15:35.110 --> 00:15:37.610 really tough pill to swallow. According to this 00:15:37.610 --> 00:15:41.730 25 country survey, fully 53 % of U .S. adults 00:15:41.730 --> 00:15:44.409 say the morality and ethics of Americans are 00:15:44.409 --> 00:15:48.129 somewhat or very bad. Let that sink in. It's 00:15:48.129 --> 00:15:50.710 incredible. That is 25 points above the global 00:15:50.710 --> 00:15:53.629 median. Out of all 25 nations surveyed, the United 00:15:53.629 --> 00:15:55.789 States is the only country where a majority of 00:15:55.789 --> 00:15:58.450 people believe their fellow citizens are fundamentally 00:15:58.450 --> 00:16:01.450 more bad than good. It's a profound level of 00:16:01.450 --> 00:16:04.059 societal distrust. And the Hedgeye Report shows 00:16:04.059 --> 00:16:06.440 that partisan animosity is hardening at a terrifying 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:09.620 rate. Between 2016 and 2022, the share of Republicans 00:16:09.620 --> 00:16:12.340 who say Democrats are immoral rose 25 points 00:16:12.340 --> 00:16:15.190 to a massive 72 percent. On the flip side, The 00:16:15.190 --> 00:16:17.830 share of Democrats who say Republicans are immoral 00:16:17.830 --> 00:16:21.570 climbed 28 points to 63 percent. It isn't just 00:16:21.570 --> 00:16:23.690 about disagreeing on tax policy or health care 00:16:23.690 --> 00:16:26.490 anymore. Both sides increasingly view the other 00:16:26.490 --> 00:16:29.750 as fundamentally closed minded, dishonest, unintelligent 00:16:29.750 --> 00:16:32.230 and lazy. It's a complete demonization of your 00:16:32.230 --> 00:16:34.220 neighbor. Yeah. But what I found so compelling 00:16:34.220 --> 00:16:36.879 in the Hedge Eye analysis is the highly contradictory 00:16:36.879 --> 00:16:39.580 nature of American moral standards. When you 00:16:39.580 --> 00:16:41.840 compare us to the rest of the world, we aren't 00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:44.840 just broadly judgmental. We have a very specific, 00:16:45.000 --> 00:16:47.879 almost bizarre moral compass. We really do. Americans 00:16:47.879 --> 00:16:50.059 are incredibly strict on certain traditional 00:16:50.059 --> 00:16:52.539 moral issues, yet shockingly permissive on others. 00:16:53.019 --> 00:16:56.000 For example, 90 % of Americans condemn extramarital 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:59.700 affairs, compared to a global median of 77%. 00:16:59.700 --> 00:17:02.980 39 % condemn homosexuality, which is 11 points 00:17:02.980 --> 00:17:05.339 higher than the global median. And 23 percent 00:17:05.339 --> 00:17:07.480 condemn divorce, nearly double the global median 00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:11.019 of 12 percent. But then flip the coin. Only 23 00:17:11.019 --> 00:17:13.200 percent of Americans say using marijuana is morally 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:16.200 wrong. That is way below the global median of 00:17:16.200 --> 00:17:19.539 52 percent. And only 29 percent say gambling 00:17:19.539 --> 00:17:22.240 is immoral compared to a global median of 49 00:17:22.240 --> 00:17:25.579 percent. We're this strange, contradictory mix 00:17:25.579 --> 00:17:28.980 of highly puritanical and broadly permissive. 00:17:29.339 --> 00:17:31.640 How does Hedgeye interpret that split? The author 00:17:31.640 --> 00:17:34.660 of the report, Neil Howe, suggests this contradictory 00:17:34.660 --> 00:17:37.019 data points to a society that is desperately 00:17:37.019 --> 00:17:40.119 trying to assert and enforce boundaries of acceptable 00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:43.059 behavior. When the cultural landscape feels volatile 00:17:43.059 --> 00:17:45.859 and untethered, people double down on moral judgments 00:17:45.859 --> 00:17:48.380 as a way to regain control. They become hyper 00:17:48.380 --> 00:17:50.460 -focused on the perceived ethical failings of 00:17:50.460 --> 00:17:52.420 others. So what does this all mean for you, the 00:17:52.420 --> 00:17:54.400 listener, as you navigate this environment? Think 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:56.380 about how these strict judgments of one another 00:17:56.380 --> 00:17:58.480 fuel the exact political dysfunction we read 00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:00.799 about in the news. When you have a society where 00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:02.819 the majority actively thinks everyone else is 00:18:02.819 --> 00:18:05.420 morally bad, does that breed the kind of deep, 00:18:05.579 --> 00:18:07.839 cynical distrust that makes stories like Bresnan's 00:18:07.839 --> 00:18:10.859 doctrine so explosive? It absolutely does, and 00:18:10.859 --> 00:18:13.890 it extends to the global stage. Does this culture 00:18:13.890 --> 00:18:17.230 of distrust create the fractured chaotic environment 00:18:17.230 --> 00:18:20.230 where an administration feels it needs 10 different 00:18:20.230 --> 00:18:23.210 conflicting excuses for a war in Iran? Because 00:18:23.210 --> 00:18:25.769 perhaps they know the public assumes they are 00:18:25.769 --> 00:18:27.849 acting in bad faith anyway, so they just throw 00:18:27.849 --> 00:18:31.009 everything at the wall. Exactly. So to quickly 00:18:31.009 --> 00:18:33.630 recap the journey we've been on today. We started 00:18:33.630 --> 00:18:35.970 with the glaring loopholes of congressional stock 00:18:35.970 --> 00:18:38.630 trading and the trust deficit it creates between 00:18:38.630 --> 00:18:41.750 lawmakers and voters. We navigated the absolute 00:18:41.750 --> 00:18:44.390 messaging maze of the U .S. intervention in Iran, 00:18:44.650 --> 00:18:47.109 looking at the stark real -world consequences 00:18:47.109 --> 00:18:49.849 of chaotic leadership. And then the local level. 00:18:49.990 --> 00:18:52.109 Right. We looked down -ballot at how local voters 00:18:52.109 --> 00:18:54.529 are exercising swift, surprising judgment at 00:18:54.529 --> 00:18:57.309 the polls. And finally, we looked in the mirror 00:18:57.309 --> 00:18:59.769 with a hedge eye in Pew data, proving just how 00:18:59.769 --> 00:19:02.089 harshly Americans are currently judging one other's 00:19:02.089 --> 00:19:04.539 base. I want to leave you with a final thought 00:19:04.539 --> 00:19:06.819 to mull over, something that dills on this pew 00:19:06.819 --> 00:19:10.099 data. If a nation's political institutions are 00:19:10.099 --> 00:19:12.799 ultimately just a reflection of its people, could 00:19:12.799 --> 00:19:15.680 it be that our hyper -focus on the moral failings 00:19:15.680 --> 00:19:17.940 of our neighbors is exactly what prevents us 00:19:17.940 --> 00:19:20.500 from demanding unified systemic accountability 00:19:20.500 --> 00:19:23.480 from our leaders? Think about it. If we automatically 00:19:23.480 --> 00:19:25.480 assume everyone else in the country is acting 00:19:25.480 --> 00:19:28.259 in bad faith, perhaps we inadvertently give our 00:19:28.259 --> 00:19:30.440 leaders permission to do the exact same thing. 00:19:30.619 --> 00:19:32.960 A really powerful thought to end on. Thank you 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:35.400 so much for joining us on this deep dive. Keep 00:19:35.400 --> 00:19:38.180 reading. Keep questioning. around you and we 00:19:38.180 --> 00:19:39.220 will catch you next time.