WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.960 Welcome back to the show and a special welcome 00:00:01.960 --> 00:00:04.620 to you, our listener, for requesting today's 00:00:04.620 --> 00:00:08.099 deep dive. We've got an incredibly dense and 00:00:08.099 --> 00:00:10.339 frankly fascinating agenda to get through today. 00:00:10.640 --> 00:00:13.240 We really do. Yeah. Our mission is to unpack 00:00:13.240 --> 00:00:16.280 what has been a truly chaotic week, a week where 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:18.899 a massive geopolitical earthquake is colliding 00:00:18.899 --> 00:00:21.899 in real time with the global economy, domestic 00:00:21.899 --> 00:00:24.859 political gridlock, and believe it or not, the 00:00:24.859 --> 00:00:26.559 world of mixed martial arts. Right. It's all 00:00:26.559 --> 00:00:29.379 connected. Exactly. And to do this, we are looking 00:00:29.379 --> 00:00:32.299 at two highly detailed sources you sent our way. 00:00:32.469 --> 00:00:34.950 First, we have a political newsletter from Electoral 00:00:34.950 --> 00:00:38.170 Vote, dated March 10th, 2026. And to pair with 00:00:38.170 --> 00:00:40.109 that, we have a market report from Leidenberg 00:00:40.109 --> 00:00:42.689 Asset Management, dated just a few days earlier 00:00:42.689 --> 00:00:44.789 on March 6th. Actually, before we jump into those 00:00:44.789 --> 00:00:46.810 notes, I need to step in and explicitly address 00:00:46.810 --> 00:00:49.609 you, the listener, with a crucial caveat. The 00:00:49.609 --> 00:00:51.909 sources we are diving into today contain highly 00:00:51.909 --> 00:00:54.850 opinionated, politically charged commentary spanning 00:00:54.850 --> 00:00:57.560 multiple sides of the aisle. So my role today, 00:00:57.659 --> 00:00:59.679 our role today is strictly to impartially report 00:00:59.679 --> 00:01:01.619 on and analyze the content provided in these 00:01:01.619 --> 00:01:04.120 texts. We are not taking any sides and we are 00:01:04.120 --> 00:01:06.260 not endorsing any of the viewpoints you'll hear. 00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:09.200 Our only goal is to help you understand the ideas, 00:01:09.659 --> 00:01:12.140 the data, and the arguments contained in the 00:01:12.140 --> 00:01:14.680 original source material you provided. Absolutely. 00:01:14.780 --> 00:01:16.959 We are just here to act as your guides through 00:01:16.959 --> 00:01:20.120 the information. Okay, let's unpack this. Starting 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:22.900 with the geopolitical earthquake dominating the 00:01:22.900 --> 00:01:27.180 headlines. The U .S. War in Iran. Yeah, the administration's 00:01:27.180 --> 00:01:29.939 stated goal right out of the gate has been total 00:01:29.939 --> 00:01:32.659 regime change. The public strategy relies on 00:01:32.659 --> 00:01:35.319 this idea of cleaning out the current leadership 00:01:35.319 --> 00:01:38.019 and just, you know, swapping in a preferred successor. 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:40.579 But looking at the electoral vote breakdown, 00:01:41.219 --> 00:01:44.099 the reality on the ground seems far more complex. 00:01:44.299 --> 00:01:46.359 Much more complex. What are the intelligence 00:01:46.359 --> 00:01:48.560 communities actually saying about this strategy? 00:01:48.840 --> 00:01:50.840 Well, the newsletter highlights a leaked report 00:01:50.840 --> 00:01:53.299 from the National Intelligence Council that paints 00:01:53.299 --> 00:01:55.379 a very different picture than the public messaging. 00:01:56.060 --> 00:01:58.739 The report essentially argues that even a massive 00:01:58.739 --> 00:02:02.099 military assault is highly unlikely to oust the 00:02:02.099 --> 00:02:03.920 entrenched leadership. Because of the way the 00:02:03.920 --> 00:02:06.159 government is structured. Exactly. Comes down 00:02:06.159 --> 00:02:08.319 to structural design. When you look at a state 00:02:08.319 --> 00:02:11.659 like Russia, for example, power is highly centralized. 00:02:11.900 --> 00:02:14.340 If you take out the leadership at the very top, 00:02:14.740 --> 00:02:17.280 you might completely cripple the state's ability 00:02:17.280 --> 00:02:21.560 to function. But Iran's power structure is intentionally 00:02:21.560 --> 00:02:23.780 decentralized. They've planned for this. They 00:02:23.780 --> 00:02:26.610 have. They've spent decades building a system 00:02:26.610 --> 00:02:30.009 designed to survive exactly this kind of decapitation 00:02:30.009 --> 00:02:33.009 strike. So taking out the top tier simply activates 00:02:33.009 --> 00:02:35.349 the next layer of the network. And we're watching 00:02:35.349 --> 00:02:38.270 that exact survival mechanism play out in real 00:02:38.270 --> 00:02:40.370 time right now. The supreme leader Ayatollah 00:02:40.370 --> 00:02:42.889 Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike at age 86 00:02:42.889 --> 00:02:45.729 and he was immediately replaced by his 56 year 00:02:45.729 --> 00:02:49.409 old son Mojtaba Khamenei. How does the source 00:02:49.409 --> 00:02:52.030 evaluate that specific transition in leadership? 00:02:52.439 --> 00:02:54.680 The analysis suggests this might actually be 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:57.060 a significant step backward for U .S. strategic 00:02:57.060 --> 00:02:59.439 objectives. Really? Yeah. Think about the math. 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:01.840 You've traded an 86 -year -old leader, who is 00:03:01.840 --> 00:03:03.539 naturally nearing the end of his tenure anyway, 00:03:03.919 --> 00:03:06.479 for a 56 -year -old who could theoretically hold 00:03:06.479 --> 00:03:08.759 power for the next three decades. Oh, wow. Yeah. 00:03:09.039 --> 00:03:11.120 Furthermore, considering the violent nature of 00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:14.180 his father's death, this new leader and the entire 00:03:14.180 --> 00:03:18.090 state security apparatus are now on extreme existential 00:03:18.090 --> 00:03:20.949 high alert. You've basically replaced a somewhat 00:03:20.949 --> 00:03:24.030 predictable aging target with a younger, highly 00:03:24.030 --> 00:03:26.469 defensive and highly motivated successor. Which 00:03:26.469 --> 00:03:28.849 brings up the broader, perhaps more terrifying 00:03:28.849 --> 00:03:31.330 scenario discussed in the notes, which is the 00:03:31.330 --> 00:03:34.210 threat of creating a failed state. The military 00:03:34.210 --> 00:03:36.090 numbers alone are just staggering. They are. 00:03:36.349 --> 00:03:38.949 The source mentions a 200 ,000 strong Revolutionary 00:03:38.949 --> 00:03:42.460 Guard backed by 400 ,000 regular troops. What 00:03:42.460 --> 00:03:45.360 makes the internal dynamics of Iran so much more 00:03:45.360 --> 00:03:47.460 volatile than other regional conflicts we've 00:03:47.460 --> 00:03:49.419 seen? What's fascinating here is the historical 00:03:49.419 --> 00:03:51.599 comparison the source draws to Syria and Libya. 00:03:52.280 --> 00:03:55.300 Iran is not a cultural or ethnic monolith. You 00:03:55.300 --> 00:03:58.219 have significant populations of Kurds, Armenians 00:03:58.219 --> 00:04:00.979 and Azerbaijanis. All with deep ties to neighboring 00:04:00.979 --> 00:04:04.419 regions. Precisely. So if the U .S. succeeds 00:04:04.419 --> 00:04:07.080 in creating a massive power vacuum at the top, 00:04:07.460 --> 00:04:09.819 the result isn't likely to be a neat democratic 00:04:09.819 --> 00:04:13.449 transition. The historical precedent points straight 00:04:13.449 --> 00:04:16.750 towards civil war. We saw this in Libya. Muammar 00:04:16.750 --> 00:04:19.129 Gaddafi fell over a decade ago and the country 00:04:19.129 --> 00:04:20.769 still fractured without a central authority. 00:04:21.050 --> 00:04:23.769 And an Iranian civil war is something nobody 00:04:23.769 --> 00:04:26.009 wants. The source points out it's a nightmare 00:04:26.009 --> 00:04:28.889 scenario for literally everyone. Not the US, 00:04:29.110 --> 00:04:31.629 not Israel, and certainly not Iran's Arab neighbors. 00:04:31.949 --> 00:04:34.670 A failed state means millions of refugees pouring 00:04:34.670 --> 00:04:37.490 across borders, permanent disruption of vital 00:04:37.490 --> 00:04:40.269 trade routes, and just a level of regional instability 00:04:40.269 --> 00:04:42.660 that cannot be contained. And containing it is 00:04:42.660 --> 00:04:44.660 already proving to be unsustainable expensive. 00:04:44.819 --> 00:04:47.000 I mean, the sheer cost of this operation is estimated 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:49.759 at one billion dollars a day. A billion a day. 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:52.480 Yeah. And the administration is floating a 50 00:04:52.480 --> 00:04:55.300 billion dollar first installment, which is predictably 00:04:55.300 --> 00:04:58.379 angering deficit hawks in Congress. But beyond 00:04:58.379 --> 00:05:00.779 the financial strain, how are our European allies 00:05:00.779 --> 00:05:03.579 reacting to this unilateral push? The diplomatic 00:05:03.579 --> 00:05:06.540 pushback is remarkably explicit. The newsletter 00:05:06.540 --> 00:05:09.360 quotes Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto. 00:05:09.759 --> 00:05:12.339 who issued a sharp refusal to blindly assist. 00:05:13.220 --> 00:05:15.579 He stated publicly that the war began unbeknownst 00:05:15.579 --> 00:05:18.800 to the world and was, quote, not a decision shared 00:05:18.800 --> 00:05:21.899 by anyone. That is a stunning rebuke from a NATO 00:05:21.899 --> 00:05:24.579 ally. It really is. And the friction with Germany 00:05:24.579 --> 00:05:28.040 is equally intense. Chancellor Friedrich Merz 00:05:28.040 --> 00:05:30.240 reportedly had a meeting with the US administration 00:05:30.240 --> 00:05:33.120 that was so hostile, a German newspaper actually 00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:35.600 likened him to a clueless tourist stranded in 00:05:35.600 --> 00:05:38.639 a crisis zone. The traditional coalition is not 00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:40.720 simply falling into line. And that diplomatic 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:44.180 strain ripples outward in unexpected ways, especially 00:05:44.180 --> 00:05:46.439 regarding Ukraine, because the U .S. is burning 00:05:46.439 --> 00:05:48.800 through resources and desperately needs cheap, 00:05:49.060 --> 00:05:51.500 effective drones. Which Ukraine has been manufacturing 00:05:51.500 --> 00:05:54.639 at scale. Exactly. But President Zelensky isn't 00:05:54.639 --> 00:05:57.220 just handing them over. He's demanding ATCM missiles 00:05:57.220 --> 00:06:00.360 in return. Why is he pushing so hard for ATCM 00:06:00.360 --> 00:06:02.500 specifically rather than the tomahawks we keep 00:06:02.500 --> 00:06:04.779 hearing about? It comes down to tactical range 00:06:04.779 --> 00:06:08.649 and political risk. ATCMs, which stand for Army 00:06:08.649 --> 00:06:11.449 Tactical Missile Systems, are ballistic missiles 00:06:11.449 --> 00:06:15.110 that cost about $1 .5 million each and have a 00:06:15.110 --> 00:06:18.790 range of roughly 180 miles. OK. Zelensky wants 00:06:18.790 --> 00:06:21.269 these because they are highly effective for striking 00:06:21.269 --> 00:06:23.930 critical supply lines and bases just behind the 00:06:23.930 --> 00:06:26.310 front lines. The U .S. has been reluctant to 00:06:26.310 --> 00:06:28.490 provide the longer -range tomahawks because those 00:06:28.490 --> 00:06:30.990 can travel over 1 ,000 miles. Right, which carries 00:06:30.990 --> 00:06:33.250 the inherent risk that Ukraine might use them 00:06:33.250 --> 00:06:35.350 to strike deep inside Russian territory. Like 00:06:35.350 --> 00:06:38.240 Moscow. which crosses a major escalation red 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:40.920 line for Washington. But the diplomatic friction 00:06:40.920 --> 00:06:43.680 goes even deeper than weapon types. The source 00:06:43.680 --> 00:06:45.879 notes the U .S. is currently holding on to weapons 00:06:45.879 --> 00:06:48.420 that were actually paid for by the EU, meant 00:06:48.420 --> 00:06:50.759 to be sent to Ukraine. Wait, so the U .S. is 00:06:50.759 --> 00:06:54.319 redirecting EU purchased munitions? Yes, effectively 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:56.480 redirecting them to support the Iran conflict 00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:59.180 instead. That is a staggering logistical and 00:06:59.180 --> 00:07:01.459 diplomatic mess. Let's look at how this global 00:07:01.459 --> 00:07:04.939 storm hits closer to home. Turning to Leidenberg's 00:07:04.939 --> 00:07:07.360 analysts, how are these geopolitical shockwaves 00:07:07.360 --> 00:07:10.160 translating to your everyday economy? If we connect 00:07:10.160 --> 00:07:12.660 this to the bigger picture, the most immediate 00:07:12.660 --> 00:07:15.920 and severe economic impact is the oil choke point 00:07:15.920 --> 00:07:18.620 in the Middle East. The conflict has effectively 00:07:18.620 --> 00:07:20.920 shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And to understand 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:24.139 the gravity of that, roughly a fifth of the entire 00:07:24.139 --> 00:07:27.579 global oil supply flows through that single narrow 00:07:27.579 --> 00:07:30.420 waterway. Exactly. As a direct result of that 00:07:30.420 --> 00:07:34.040 bottleneck, Oil has surged past $90 a barrel. 00:07:34.819 --> 00:07:37.439 The supply chain is so backed up that Kuwait 00:07:37.439 --> 00:07:39.839 is actively cutting their oil production. Because 00:07:39.839 --> 00:07:41.800 they've run out of storage space? It's not a 00:07:41.800 --> 00:07:44.079 strategic choice. They have simply run out of 00:07:44.079 --> 00:07:46.279 physical storage space for their bottled up crude. 00:07:46.579 --> 00:07:48.019 Since they can't ship it out, they literally 00:07:48.019 --> 00:07:50.180 have to stop pumping it out of the ground. And 00:07:50.180 --> 00:07:53.199 Leidenberg is explicitly warning about a stagflationary 00:07:53.199 --> 00:07:56.060 spiral taking hold. We all know the pain of high 00:07:56.060 --> 00:07:58.680 prices mixed with stagnant economic growth. But 00:07:58.680 --> 00:08:00.579 what makes their reading of the February data 00:08:00.579 --> 00:08:03.620 so alarming? Because on paper, the jobs report 00:08:03.620 --> 00:08:07.100 looks awful. Non -farm payrolls fell by 92 ,000 00:08:07.100 --> 00:08:09.180 jobs when economists were expecting a gain of 00:08:09.180 --> 00:08:13.000 55 ,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4 .4%. 00:08:13.000 --> 00:08:15.439 Leidenberg specifically cautions against pure 00:08:15.439 --> 00:08:17.860 panic over that headlong jobs number, because 00:08:17.860 --> 00:08:19.399 you have to look at the mechanics of the drop. 00:08:19.420 --> 00:08:23.069 Right. That 92 ,000 plunge was heavily distorted 00:08:23.069 --> 00:08:26.410 by two transient factors. Severe winter storms 00:08:26.410 --> 00:08:28.709 across the country that temporarily froze hiring 00:08:28.709 --> 00:08:32.429 and a massive 28 ,000 person nursing strike in 00:08:32.429 --> 00:08:34.720 the healthcare sector. So those are temporary 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:36.720 issues that should normalize in the coming months? 00:08:36.840 --> 00:08:39.460 Yes. What you cannot ignore, however, are the 00:08:39.460 --> 00:08:42.120 inflation warning signs flashing bright red beneath 00:08:42.120 --> 00:08:45.360 the surface. The ISM manufacturing prices paid 00:08:45.360 --> 00:08:47.580 index, which is a leading indicator measuring 00:08:47.580 --> 00:08:50.440 the cost of raw materials for businesses, jumped 00:08:50.440 --> 00:08:54.919 massively from 59 .0 in January to 70 .5 in February. 00:08:55.259 --> 00:08:56.860 Here's where it gets really interesting because 00:08:56.860 --> 00:08:59.120 the market reacted to all of this data with severe 00:08:59.120 --> 00:09:01.740 volatility. But it wasn't an even spread. No, 00:09:01.740 --> 00:09:04.220 it wasn't. The S &P 500 was down about 1 .99 00:09:04.220 --> 00:09:07.200 percent for the week and the Dow dropped 2 .92 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:10.179 percent. But the Russell 2000, which tracks small 00:09:10.179 --> 00:09:13.340 cap stocks, bled out over 4 percent and international 00:09:13.340 --> 00:09:16.259 equities dropped nearly 7 percent. Why do those 00:09:16.259 --> 00:09:18.919 smaller and international markets take such disproportionately 00:09:18.919 --> 00:09:21.279 heavy damage during these kinds of shocks. It 00:09:21.279 --> 00:09:24.500 is a textbook flight to safety. When geopolitical 00:09:24.500 --> 00:09:27.799 shock waves hit and energy prices spike, institutional 00:09:27.799 --> 00:09:30.340 capital immediately flees smaller companies. 00:09:31.039 --> 00:09:33.559 Small cap businesses usually don't have the cash 00:09:33.559 --> 00:09:36.620 reserves or the pricing power to absorb sudden 00:09:36.620 --> 00:09:39.279 massive spikes in raw materials and transportation 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:41.519 costs. Right. Whereas large cap companies in 00:09:41.519 --> 00:09:44.360 the Dow or S &P can often pass those costs on 00:09:44.360 --> 00:09:46.980 to consumers. Exactly. But small businesses just 00:09:46.980 --> 00:09:49.860 get squeezed. Similarly, international markets, 00:09:50.019 --> 00:09:52.559 especially emerging ones, are far more vulnerable 00:09:52.559 --> 00:09:55.019 to a strong U .S. dollar and global supply chain 00:09:55.019 --> 00:09:57.620 disruptions. Capital runs toward the perceived 00:09:57.620 --> 00:10:01.000 safety of massive insulated U .S. corporations. 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:03.240 And it's not just international capital searching 00:10:03.240 --> 00:10:06.159 for a safe harbor. We're seeing extreme defensive 00:10:06.159 --> 00:10:08.340 posturing right on the Senate floor. Absolutely. 00:10:08.580 --> 00:10:11.340 The gridlock in Washington is completely entangled 00:10:11.340 --> 00:10:13.799 with these broader pressures. Electoral vote 00:10:13.799 --> 00:10:16.279 outlines a fascinating stalemate involving the 00:10:16.279 --> 00:10:19.250 Save America Act. You have Texas Attorney General 00:10:19.250 --> 00:10:22.149 Ken Paxton offering to drop his primary challenge 00:10:22.149 --> 00:10:25.289 against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, but only 00:10:25.289 --> 00:10:28.250 if the Senate passes this specific piece of legislation. 00:10:28.730 --> 00:10:31.409 Why is Paxton making a demand he knows won't 00:10:31.409 --> 00:10:34.649 pass? Because it's a shrewd political bluff designed 00:10:34.649 --> 00:10:39.129 entirely for an audience of one. Paxton understands 00:10:39.129 --> 00:10:41.929 the mechanics of the Senate floor. He knows that 00:10:41.929 --> 00:10:44.129 the legislative filibuster is firmly in place, 00:10:44.490 --> 00:10:46.990 meaning you effectively need 60 votes to pass 00:10:46.990 --> 00:10:48.929 the Save America Act. And he knows the Senate 00:10:48.929 --> 00:10:51.669 Republican Conference is highly unlikely to detonate 00:10:51.669 --> 00:10:53.830 the filibuster to force it through. Exactly. 00:10:53.889 --> 00:10:56.590 So by making this very public, high -stakes demand, 00:10:57.090 --> 00:10:59.029 Paxton is writing a political check he knows 00:10:59.029 --> 00:11:02.059 he will never have to cash. It allows him to 00:11:02.059 --> 00:11:04.519 overwhelmingly prove his Maggier loyalty to Donald 00:11:04.519 --> 00:11:07.840 Trump while simultaneously branding Senator Cornyn 00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:10.259 as too weak to pass the president's agenda. And 00:11:10.259 --> 00:11:11.940 the stakes are artificially heightened because 00:11:11.940 --> 00:11:14.980 Trump has publicly dug in, declaring he won't 00:11:14.980 --> 00:11:17.759 sign any other bills until the Save America Act 00:11:17.759 --> 00:11:20.460 hits his desk. Which brings us right to the brink 00:11:20.460 --> 00:11:22.480 of the looming Department of Homeland Security 00:11:22.480 --> 00:11:25.580 and ICV funding shutdown. The timeline here is 00:11:25.580 --> 00:11:28.019 aggressive and the math is shifting with Kristi 00:11:28.019 --> 00:11:30.179 Noem out of the picture and Markwayne Mullin 00:11:30.179 --> 00:11:32.639 stepping in. How does this funding fight actually 00:11:32.639 --> 00:11:35.120 play out as we get closer to the summer? The 00:11:35.120 --> 00:11:37.120 approaching summer travel season is the ultimate 00:11:37.120 --> 00:11:40.299 pressure point. If DHS remains unfunded and shuts 00:11:40.299 --> 00:11:43.639 down, that immediately cascades into TSA shutdowns 00:11:43.639 --> 00:11:46.340 at airports nationwide. Oh, wow. Yeah. From a 00:11:46.340 --> 00:11:48.720 political standpoint, stranding millions of furious 00:11:48.720 --> 00:11:50.639 families in airport terminals right before a 00:11:50.639 --> 00:11:53.340 midterm election is an absolute nightmare scenario 00:11:53.340 --> 00:11:56.000 for incumbents. To pass a funding bill and break 00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:58.820 the shutdown, the Senate has to overcome cloture, 00:11:59.179 --> 00:12:01.179 which is the procedural hurdle to end debate 00:12:01.179 --> 00:12:04.769 and stop a filibuster requiring 60 votes. And 00:12:04.769 --> 00:12:07.029 the newsletter notes that the impending chaos 00:12:07.029 --> 00:12:09.850 at the airports might force the hands of moderate 00:12:09.850 --> 00:12:12.490 Democrats. Senators like John Fetterman, who 00:12:12.490 --> 00:12:14.289 has already shown a willingness to vote with 00:12:14.289 --> 00:12:16.990 Republicans on border related issues, and Peter 00:12:16.990 --> 00:12:19.470 Welch might cross the aisle to hit that 60 vote 00:12:19.470 --> 00:12:21.529 threshold simply to keep the country moving. 00:12:21.750 --> 00:12:24.149 Very possible. I want to give the rest of the 00:12:24.149 --> 00:12:25.909 domestic politics section the breathing room 00:12:25.909 --> 00:12:28.289 it deserves because the notes gave us a rapid 00:12:28.289 --> 00:12:31.470 fire rundown of several major shifts. Let's start 00:12:31.470 --> 00:12:34.639 with the DNC. Cherkin Martin is under massive 00:12:34.639 --> 00:12:37.720 fire after just 13 months on the job. What exactly 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:40.220 is the source of the rebellion inside his own 00:12:40.220 --> 00:12:42.340 party? The complaints are coming from multiple 00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:45.360 flanks. First, there are growing accusations 00:12:45.360 --> 00:12:48.720 of cronyism, with critics pointing to his reliance 00:12:48.720 --> 00:12:51.379 on a tight -knit circle being dubbed the Minnesota 00:12:51.379 --> 00:12:54.019 Mafia. Right. Second, the party's fundraising 00:12:54.019 --> 00:12:56.759 numbers under his tenure have been objectively 00:12:56.759 --> 00:12:59.960 terrible, which induces panic ahead of the midterms. 00:13:00.110 --> 00:13:02.889 But perhaps the most controversial move is that 00:13:02.889 --> 00:13:06.470 Martin is reportedly hiding the full 2024 election 00:13:06.470 --> 00:13:09.730 autopsy report from his own party insiders. And 00:13:09.730 --> 00:13:12.210 when a party loses an election, the autopsy is 00:13:12.210 --> 00:13:14.590 meant to provide a transparent roadmap for what 00:13:14.590 --> 00:13:17.309 went wrong. Exactly. Hiding it suggests leadership 00:13:17.309 --> 00:13:19.970 is more interested in protecting specific reputations 00:13:19.970 --> 00:13:23.029 than fixing structural flaws. Speaking of structural 00:13:23.029 --> 00:13:25.210 flaws and shifting power, let's talk about the 00:13:25.210 --> 00:13:28.629 Wisconsin Supreme Court. conservative judge Annette 00:13:28.629 --> 00:13:31.470 Ziegler has announced her retirement. Why is 00:13:31.470 --> 00:13:33.889 a single judicial retirement in Wisconsin being 00:13:33.889 --> 00:13:36.649 flagged as a massive national story? Because 00:13:36.649 --> 00:13:38.789 it fundamentally alters the legal and electoral 00:13:38.789 --> 00:13:40.850 landscape of one of the most critical swing states 00:13:40.850 --> 00:13:43.529 in the country. Ziegler's retirement potentially 00:13:43.529 --> 00:13:45.590 opens the door for the court to move from a narrow 00:13:45.590 --> 00:13:48.330 split to a commanding 5 -2 liberal majority. 00:13:48.600 --> 00:13:51.480 And state supreme courts have immense power over 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:54.759 redistricting maps, voting access laws, and election 00:13:54.759 --> 00:13:58.419 certification. They do. A 5 -2 liberal majority 00:13:58.419 --> 00:14:01.080 in Wisconsin could essentially redraw the battle 00:14:01.080 --> 00:14:04.039 lines for the 2028 presidential election map. 00:14:04.299 --> 00:14:05.879 We also got an update on health care policy. 00:14:06.139 --> 00:14:08.480 Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is now running the Centers 00:14:08.480 --> 00:14:11.279 for Medicare and Medicaid Services, made a rather 00:14:11.279 --> 00:14:14.480 bold claim about Obamacare. He did. He stated 00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:16.960 that enrollment only dropped by two million people 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:19.639 despite significantly higher premiums because 00:14:19.639 --> 00:14:21.580 roughly five million people currently enrolled 00:14:21.580 --> 00:14:24.600 are there fraudulently or by error. How is that 00:14:24.600 --> 00:14:26.899 being received? It's being viewed as a highly 00:14:26.899 --> 00:14:29.740 aggressive political justification for a coming 00:14:29.740 --> 00:14:32.179 purge of the voter rolls in health care exchanges. 00:14:32.460 --> 00:14:35.340 Oh. Framing five million enrollments as fraudulent 00:14:35.340 --> 00:14:37.960 or erroneous gives CMS the bureaucratic cover 00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:40.559 it needs to systematically remove those individuals 00:14:40.559 --> 00:14:43.240 from the system, effectively dismantling portions 00:14:43.240 --> 00:14:45.940 of the Affordable Care Act from the inside without 00:14:45.940 --> 00:14:48.539 needing a legislative repeal from Congress. Finally, 00:14:48.639 --> 00:14:50.779 in the House of Representatives, Representative 00:14:50.779 --> 00:14:53.779 Kevin Kaley of California officially switched 00:14:53.779 --> 00:14:57.080 his party affiliation from Republican to independent. 00:14:57.720 --> 00:14:59.980 He says he will still pock us with the GOP. So. 00:15:00.250 --> 00:15:02.529 Why is this matter for Speaker Mike Johnson? 00:15:03.049 --> 00:15:05.909 Because Speaker Johnson's margins are already 00:15:05.909 --> 00:15:09.049 razor thin. Yeah. Even if Kylie promises to caucus 00:15:09.049 --> 00:15:11.669 with Republicans on major votes by declaring 00:15:11.669 --> 00:15:14.570 himself an independent, he is politically obligated 00:15:14.570 --> 00:15:17.049 to cross the aisle occasionally just to prove 00:15:17.049 --> 00:15:19.309 to his constituents that his new title actually 00:15:19.309 --> 00:15:21.330 means something. Right. He has to show independence. 00:15:21.429 --> 00:15:24.450 Yes. And every time he does that, it mathematically 00:15:24.450 --> 00:15:26.809 complicates Johnson's ability to pass strictly 00:15:26.809 --> 00:15:29.350 partisan legislation, forcing the speaker to 00:15:29.350 --> 00:15:31.710 constantly negotiate with a wild card. This hyper 00:15:31.710 --> 00:15:33.929 partisan filter isn't just dictating Senate votes 00:15:33.929 --> 00:15:36.409 or healthcare policy. It is literally dictating 00:15:36.409 --> 00:15:38.409 who gets to throw a punch on the White House 00:15:38.409 --> 00:15:41.049 lawn. Yeah, this part was fascinating. The electoral 00:15:41.049 --> 00:15:44.230 vote source dives into the upcoming UFC America 00:15:44.230 --> 00:15:48.289 250 event. It is a $60 million spectacle, but 00:15:48.289 --> 00:15:50.850 the fight card itself is being aggressively curated 00:15:50.850 --> 00:15:53.850 based on political optics. Who exactly is being 00:15:53.850 --> 00:15:56.200 kept out of the octagon for this event? It is 00:15:56.200 --> 00:15:58.559 a striking example of sports promotion bowing 00:15:58.559 --> 00:16:01.519 entirely to political narrative. Several top 00:16:01.519 --> 00:16:04.080 tier fighters were excluded. Islam Makachev, 00:16:04.240 --> 00:16:06.120 who is widely considered overdue for a major 00:16:06.120 --> 00:16:08.860 title fight, was left off the card. Wow. The 00:16:08.860 --> 00:16:11.559 analysis suggests this is entirely due to the 00:16:11.559 --> 00:16:13.860 optics of his name and his Russian nationality. 00:16:14.240 --> 00:16:16.179 The administration simply doesn't want a Russian 00:16:16.179 --> 00:16:18.779 fighter raising a championship belt on the White 00:16:18.779 --> 00:16:20.720 House lawn right now. And then you have Conor 00:16:20.720 --> 00:16:22.990 McGregor. Right. Despite being one of the most 00:16:22.990 --> 00:16:25.029 famous fighters on the planet and a vocal Trump 00:16:25.029 --> 00:16:27.610 supporter, he was excluded because he was recently 00:16:27.610 --> 00:16:30.690 found civilly liable for rape. The liability 00:16:30.690 --> 00:16:32.590 of associating that verdict with a White House 00:16:32.590 --> 00:16:36.519 event was deemed too high. And perhaps most glaringly, 00:16:36.840 --> 00:16:40.019 there are absolutely zero women's bouts scheduled 00:16:40.019 --> 00:16:42.659 for the event. The general presumption outlined 00:16:42.659 --> 00:16:44.980 in the notes is that women's mixed martial arts 00:16:44.980 --> 00:16:47.779 was deemed too woke for this specific political 00:16:47.779 --> 00:16:50.919 spectacle. As a result, massive combat sports 00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:53.440 stars like Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano are headlining 00:16:53.440 --> 00:16:57.059 a completely separate, non -UFC sanctioned fight 00:16:57.059 --> 00:17:00.259 out in Los Angeles instead. And, you know, the 00:17:00.259 --> 00:17:02.379 political entanglement with sports extends right 00:17:02.379 --> 00:17:05.210 into the collegiate level as well. The source 00:17:05.210 --> 00:17:08.250 covers the ongoing chaos in the NCAA regarding 00:17:08.250 --> 00:17:10.650 the transfer portal and name image and likeness 00:17:10.650 --> 00:17:13.890 or NIL money, which has effectively commercialized 00:17:13.890 --> 00:17:16.289 college athletics by allowing student athletes 00:17:16.289 --> 00:17:18.970 to profit from their personal brands. To address 00:17:18.970 --> 00:17:21.529 the lack of regulation, the president convened 00:17:21.529 --> 00:17:24.660 a blue ribbon panel. But the proposed solution 00:17:24.660 --> 00:17:27.839 highlighted a glaring legal disconnect. The president 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:30.500 threatened to issue an executive order to force 00:17:30.500 --> 00:17:33.500 the NCAA to fix the issues. But the problem is, 00:17:33.640 --> 00:17:37.000 the NCAA is a private non -profit organization. 00:17:37.299 --> 00:17:39.819 It is not a government agency. Exactly. You cannot 00:17:39.819 --> 00:17:42.400 legally use an executive order to mandate the 00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:44.359 internal operations of a private sports league. 00:17:44.519 --> 00:17:47.099 That misunderstanding of how the political and 00:17:47.099 --> 00:17:49.400 legal machine actually works brings us perfectly 00:17:49.400 --> 00:17:51.400 to Stephen A. Smith. He officially announced 00:17:51.400 --> 00:17:54.059 he won't be running for president in 2028, and 00:17:54.059 --> 00:17:56.039 his stated reason was that he simply wants to 00:17:56.039 --> 00:17:58.859 keep his 20 million dollar annual salary at ESPN. 00:17:59.180 --> 00:18:01.539 The newsletter practically laughs at this, pointing 00:18:01.539 --> 00:18:03.960 out his total misunderstanding of modern political 00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:06.640 economics. If he were paying closer attention, 00:18:07.059 --> 00:18:09.019 he'd realize that modern political campaigns, 00:18:09.440 --> 00:18:12.079 super peaks, and the associated media grift can 00:18:12.079 --> 00:18:14.619 be exponentially more lucrative than a standard 00:18:14.619 --> 00:18:17.740 $20 million broadcasting contract. It certainly 00:18:17.740 --> 00:18:19.940 proves he is better suited for sports commentary 00:18:19.940 --> 00:18:23.059 than campaign finance. But after all that heavy 00:18:23.059 --> 00:18:26.019 geopolitical and partisan news, the Leidenberg 00:18:26.019 --> 00:18:28.900 report provided a genuinely inspiring palate 00:18:28.900 --> 00:18:32.470 cleanser. Yes, Cadillac. They detailed how Cadillac 00:18:32.470 --> 00:18:35.190 is currently attempting a massive engineering 00:18:35.190 --> 00:18:38.349 feat, building a Formula One racing team from 00:18:38.349 --> 00:18:41.519 an absolute blank sheet of paper. It is a monumental 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:44.220 undertaking. They are hiring roughly 600 people 00:18:44.220 --> 00:18:46.359 to build this team from scratch. And the way 00:18:46.359 --> 00:18:48.759 they are structuring the organization is incredible. 00:18:49.140 --> 00:18:51.339 They hired a veteran technical chief, noting 00:18:51.339 --> 00:18:53.779 that his PhD in aerodynamics wasn't strictly 00:18:53.779 --> 00:18:56.119 mandatory, but it certainly helped. But what 00:18:56.119 --> 00:18:57.740 I absolutely loved in these notes is that they 00:18:57.740 --> 00:19:00.019 actually put a PhD in aerodynamics in charge 00:19:00.019 --> 00:19:02.920 of their human resources department. It's a brilliant, 00:19:03.339 --> 00:19:05.480 unconventional approach to organizational management. 00:19:06.099 --> 00:19:08.180 Building an F1 team isn't just about building 00:19:08.180 --> 00:19:12.539 a fast car. It requires extreme precision, seamless 00:19:12.539 --> 00:19:15.000 logistics, and managing a highly specialized 00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:17.700 workforce under immense pressure. Right. By putting 00:19:17.700 --> 00:19:20.720 an aerodynamicist in charge of human capital, 00:19:21.299 --> 00:19:23.900 they're applying the principles of flow, efficiency, 00:19:24.259 --> 00:19:26.960 and reducing friction to the very people building 00:19:26.960 --> 00:19:29.740 the machine. Honestly, if more companies applied 00:19:29.740 --> 00:19:31.940 the scientific principles of drag coefficients 00:19:31.940 --> 00:19:34.039 to their corporate bureaucracy, we might actually 00:19:34.039 --> 00:19:36.200 get some things done. I agree completely. So 00:19:36.200 --> 00:19:38.579 what does this all mean? When you look at the 00:19:38.579 --> 00:19:40.839 entire stack of sources you provided today, it 00:19:40.839 --> 00:19:43.539 is a master class in how deeply interconnected 00:19:43.539 --> 00:19:46.700 our modern world truly is. A tactical decision 00:19:46.700 --> 00:19:48.980 regarding a drone strike in Iran doesn't stay 00:19:48.980 --> 00:19:51.500 in the Middle East. It instantly shuts down global 00:19:51.500 --> 00:19:53.799 shipping lanes, which spikes the cost of oil, 00:19:54.019 --> 00:19:56.900 which directly hits your stock portfolio and 00:19:56.900 --> 00:20:00.500 the price of raw materials. And those harsh economic 00:20:00.500 --> 00:20:03.039 realities dictate the leverage politicians have 00:20:03.039 --> 00:20:06.119 in Washington, D .C., stalling domestic legislation, 00:20:06.319 --> 00:20:09.609 threatening air security funding and even dictating 00:20:09.609 --> 00:20:11.950 who is politically viable enough to fight in 00:20:11.950 --> 00:20:14.170 a mixed martial arts bout on the White House 00:20:14.170 --> 00:20:16.450 lawn. This raises an important question and it's 00:20:16.450 --> 00:20:18.029 the final thought I want to leave you with today. 00:20:18.390 --> 00:20:20.569 We are watching an administration attempt to 00:20:20.569 --> 00:20:24.069 solve deeply complex 21st century decentralized 00:20:24.069 --> 00:20:26.650 problems, whether that's the deeply embedded 00:20:26.650 --> 00:20:29.710 power structure of the Iranian regime or the 00:20:29.710 --> 00:20:32.589 sprawling commercialized collegiate NIL markets 00:20:32.589 --> 00:20:35.430 using mid -20th century centralized force like 00:20:35.430 --> 00:20:38.230 decapitation. strikes and executive orders. If 00:20:38.230 --> 00:20:40.089 Cadillac is proving that the future of elite 00:20:40.089 --> 00:20:42.990 performance relies on cross -disciplinary brilliance, 00:20:43.349 --> 00:20:45.789 like having an aerodynamicist manage human behavior, 00:20:46.410 --> 00:20:48.710 what happens when a global superpower finally 00:20:48.710 --> 00:20:51.130 realizes its traditional centralized levers of 00:20:51.130 --> 00:20:54.069 power simply cannot grip the gears of a decentralized 00:20:54.069 --> 00:20:57.130 modern world? And furthermore, if the Strait 00:20:57.130 --> 00:20:59.390 of Hormuz remains bottlenecked and oil prices 00:20:59.390 --> 00:21:02.190 force a deep global recession, how will that 00:21:02.190 --> 00:21:04.190 fundamentally alter the political math for the 00:21:04.190 --> 00:21:06.730 upcoming midterms? And will it totally fracture 00:21:06.730 --> 00:21:09.089 Europe's willingness to support any ongoing global 00:21:09.089 --> 00:21:12.130 conflicts? That is a phenomenal question to mull 00:21:12.130 --> 00:21:14.549 over as we watch these events continue to unfold. 00:21:14.950 --> 00:21:16.730 Thank you to our listener for bringing these 00:21:16.730 --> 00:21:19.250 incredibly rich and complex sources to the table 00:21:19.250 --> 00:21:21.869 today. It has been an absolute journey unpacking 00:21:21.869 --> 00:21:24.470 them with you. We will see you next time on The 00:21:24.470 --> 00:21:24.890 Deep. dive.