WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.419 Welcome to another deep dive. We are thrilled 00:00:02.419 --> 00:00:05.599 to have you with us today. Our mission for this 00:00:05.599 --> 00:00:08.539 session is ambitious, but entirely necessary 00:00:08.539 --> 00:00:10.880 if you want to understand the current chaos in 00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:13.919 the markets and really the political sphere. 00:00:14.080 --> 00:00:15.679 Yeah, there is a lot to get through. There really 00:00:15.679 --> 00:00:19.489 is. We are taking a massive stack of early March 00:00:19.489 --> 00:00:23.969 2026 intelligence, specifically the March 9th 00:00:23.969 --> 00:00:27.410 electoral vote news analysis, and the March 6th 00:00:27.410 --> 00:00:29.510 hedge -eye macro dashboard. And our goal is to 00:00:29.510 --> 00:00:31.589 connect the dots for you. Right. Distill all 00:00:31.589 --> 00:00:34.250 that noise into clear insights. Exactly. But 00:00:34.250 --> 00:00:36.530 just a quick heads up before we jump into the 00:00:36.530 --> 00:00:38.929 deep end. The data we are unpacking today pulls 00:00:38.929 --> 00:00:41.570 absolutely no punches when it comes to both sides 00:00:41.570 --> 00:00:43.609 of the political aisle. So we need to be clear. 00:00:43.609 --> 00:00:45.789 We are not taking any sides or endorsing any 00:00:45.789 --> 00:00:48.409 of the viewpoints in these sources. Our only 00:00:48.409 --> 00:00:51.329 job is to impartially report and unpack the ideas 00:00:51.329 --> 00:00:53.429 contained in the original material so you can 00:00:53.429 --> 00:00:55.590 be fully informed. That is the perfect way to 00:00:55.590 --> 00:00:57.210 frame it. Because when you cross -reference these 00:00:57.210 --> 00:01:00.090 documents, a really stark overarching theme emerges. 00:01:00.649 --> 00:01:04.349 We are watching a classic real -time domino effect. 00:01:04.730 --> 00:01:06.969 It starts with foreign policy decisions that 00:01:06.969 --> 00:01:10.349 immediately trigger massive macroeconomic shocks. 00:01:11.189 --> 00:01:14.960 And those financial shocks are in turn drastically 00:01:14.960 --> 00:01:17.799 reshaping the domestic political landscape right 00:01:17.799 --> 00:01:20.459 as we head into a highly volatile midterm election 00:01:20.459 --> 00:01:22.680 cycle. OK, let's unpack this. Let's start with 00:01:22.680 --> 00:01:24.739 the domino that is hitting you, the listener, 00:01:24.959 --> 00:01:27.519 right in the wallet. Gas prices. Always the first 00:01:27.519 --> 00:01:30.409 place people feel it. Exactly. The electoral 00:01:30.409 --> 00:01:33.590 vote analysis lays out the stark reality that 00:01:33.590 --> 00:01:36.489 Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. 00:01:36.849 --> 00:01:39.269 We all know that's a massive global bottleneck. 00:01:39.450 --> 00:01:41.390 Roughly one fifth of the world's global oil and 00:01:41.390 --> 00:01:43.450 gas travels through there. Right. And the real 00:01:43.450 --> 00:01:45.890 world velocity of this shock is just staggering. 00:01:46.329 --> 00:01:48.950 Gas prices have spiked 25 percent in just two 00:01:48.950 --> 00:01:52.790 months. Wow. We jumped from $2 .75 a gallon in 00:01:52.790 --> 00:01:57.469 mid -January to $3 .44 right now. And the quantitative 00:01:57.469 --> 00:02:00.420 fork? suggests we're nowhere near the ceiling. 00:02:01.439 --> 00:02:03.680 Yeah. Nate Silver's statistical models, which 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:05.859 the authors highlight in the text, currently 00:02:05.859 --> 00:02:10.300 show a 94 % chance of gas hitting $3 .75 by the 00:02:10.300 --> 00:02:14.020 end of March. 94%. Yes. And there is a 38 % chance 00:02:14.020 --> 00:02:17.120 it hits $5. Crude oil itself has already hit 00:02:17.120 --> 00:02:22.819 $105 a barrel. But here is the mechanical reality 00:02:22.819 --> 00:02:25.500 that makes this so precarious. Refineries are 00:02:25.500 --> 00:02:27.550 running out of storage tanks. Wait, let me stop 00:02:27.550 --> 00:02:29.169 you there because that sounds counterintuitive. 00:02:29.229 --> 00:02:32.229 Sure. If crude is bottlenecked and cut off, shouldn't 00:02:32.229 --> 00:02:34.650 they have more room in those tanks, not less? 00:02:34.849 --> 00:02:37.250 Why would they be running out of storage? It's 00:02:37.250 --> 00:02:39.849 a great question. It's because refineries operate 00:02:39.849 --> 00:02:43.129 on continuous flow. They might have to stop production 00:02:43.129 --> 00:02:45.889 entirely if they can't move the refined product 00:02:45.889 --> 00:02:48.750 out. So if the outflow stops and their onsite 00:02:48.750 --> 00:02:51.770 tanks fill up, they can't just pause. Oh, I see. 00:02:51.930 --> 00:02:54.270 Right. They have to execute a cold shutdown of 00:02:54.270 --> 00:02:57.189 the entire facility, which is incredibly costly 00:02:57.189 --> 00:02:59.490 and complex to restart. I was looking at the 00:02:59.490 --> 00:03:02.069 hedge -eye dashboard and that supply chain panic 00:03:02.069 --> 00:03:05.330 is just screaming in the data. They reported 00:03:05.330 --> 00:03:09.710 that Brent Oil ripped up 26 .3 % week over week. 00:03:09.889 --> 00:03:12.349 That is massive. And you can see how that bleeds 00:03:12.349 --> 00:03:14.849 into the broader market. We saw a huge drop in 00:03:14.849 --> 00:03:17.949 the S &P 500 from early January. It fell from 00:03:17.949 --> 00:03:23.000 7 ,002 down to 6738. Is that entirely tied to 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:25.580 this Hormuz bottleneck dragging the market down? 00:03:25.900 --> 00:03:27.919 What's fascinating here is how Hedgeye frames 00:03:27.919 --> 00:03:30.039 the macro environment surrounding that drop. 00:03:30.759 --> 00:03:33.139 They state the US is squarely entering what they 00:03:33.139 --> 00:03:35.759 call Quad 3. Quad 3. Yeah. In their framework, 00:03:35.780 --> 00:03:38.560 Quad 3 is stagflation. So economic growth is 00:03:38.560 --> 00:03:40.900 decelerating while inflation is accelerating. 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:43.930 The worst of both worlds. Exactly. At the same 00:03:43.930 --> 00:03:46.030 time, the U .S. dollar index is showing a bullish 00:03:46.030 --> 00:03:48.289 trend, and the VIX, the market's primary fear 00:03:48.289 --> 00:03:51.610 gauge, has spiked to 29 .34. Wow. That is the 00:03:51.610 --> 00:03:53.409 highest level of volatility we've seen since 00:03:53.409 --> 00:03:55.810 April of 2025. OK, Hedgeye clinically refers 00:03:55.810 --> 00:03:57.849 to that VIX level as being in the chop bucket. 00:03:57.969 --> 00:03:59.849 Right, the chop bucket. But for the listener 00:03:59.849 --> 00:04:02.590 trying to protect their 401k or understand these 00:04:02.590 --> 00:04:05.610 institutional moves, what does being in the chop 00:04:05.610 --> 00:04:08.449 actually mean for portfolio strategy? Why does 00:04:08.449 --> 00:04:10.949 this macro environment force the rotations we 00:04:10.949 --> 00:04:13.060 are seeing? When you were in the chop bucket 00:04:13.060 --> 00:04:16.139 during a Quad 3 stagflationary environment, the 00:04:16.139 --> 00:04:18.100 smart money historically runs for cover. Makes 00:04:18.100 --> 00:04:21.360 sense. Hedgeye's Dashboard notes a highly strategic 00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:24.300 market rotation happening right now. Capital 00:04:24.300 --> 00:04:27.139 is aggressively moving out of cyclicals. So things 00:04:27.139 --> 00:04:29.579 like the industrial sector, represented by XLI. 00:04:29.639 --> 00:04:32.100 Because they get crushed when growth slows and 00:04:32.100 --> 00:04:34.800 input costs rise. Precisely. and they are rotating 00:04:34.800 --> 00:04:38.180 into rate sensitive defensive areas. Specifically, 00:04:38.319 --> 00:04:41.740 they highlight utilities, XLU and REITs, or real 00:04:41.740 --> 00:04:44.639 estate investment trusts, XLRE. These are sectors 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:46.980 that traditionally offer more stable yields when 00:04:46.980 --> 00:04:49.100 the broader growth story falls apart. And that 00:04:49.100 --> 00:04:50.860 broader growth story is falling apart precisely 00:04:50.860 --> 00:04:53.620 because oil isn't just a localized pain at the 00:04:53.620 --> 00:04:56.160 gas pump. It is a structural margin crusher. 00:04:56.800 --> 00:05:00.779 Oil is the primary feedstock for plastics, fertilizers, 00:05:01.060 --> 00:05:05.449 textiles. So when Brent crude jumps 26%, broader 00:05:05.449 --> 00:05:08.389 inflation just roars back across the entire S 00:05:08.389 --> 00:05:12.649 &P 500. Exactly. An electoral vote draws a very 00:05:12.649 --> 00:05:15.709 direct and somewhat ominous historical parallel 00:05:15.709 --> 00:05:19.310 here to the 1970s Arab oil embargo. I was thinking 00:05:19.310 --> 00:05:21.990 the exact same thing. Yeah, that crisis caused 00:05:21.990 --> 00:05:25.290 oil prices to quadruple and triggered years of 00:05:25.290 --> 00:05:28.350 brutal stagflation that defined an entire political 00:05:28.350 --> 00:05:31.430 era. The concern heavily emphasized in the source 00:05:31.430 --> 00:05:34.189 is that we are looking at a modern version of 00:05:34.189 --> 00:05:36.949 that 1970s threat, but it's being compounded 00:05:36.949 --> 00:05:39.189 by very recent domestic policy moves from the 00:05:39.189 --> 00:05:41.329 White House. Right. Because at the exact same 00:05:41.329 --> 00:05:43.329 time inflation is spiking from the oil shock, 00:05:43.629 --> 00:05:45.550 former President Trump is planning to reinstate 00:05:45.550 --> 00:05:48.230 previously nixed tariffs using emergency powers. 00:05:48.389 --> 00:05:50.870 And on top of that, he just signed a new executive 00:05:50.870 --> 00:05:53.069 order preventing states from regulating artificial 00:05:53.069 --> 00:05:55.509 intelligence. Just think about the compounding 00:05:55.509 --> 00:05:57.509 effect of that trifecta on the consumer and the 00:05:57.509 --> 00:06:00.740 labor market. You have tariff -induced inflation 00:06:00.740 --> 00:06:03.959 hitting imported goods. You have a massive energy 00:06:03.959 --> 00:06:07.300 shock raising the cost of production. And you 00:06:07.300 --> 00:06:09.860 introduce unregulated AI into the workforce, 00:06:10.399 --> 00:06:12.990 potentially accelerating job losses. Which brings 00:06:12.990 --> 00:06:15.949 us directly to the political fallout detailed 00:06:15.949 --> 00:06:18.670 in the data. The electoral coalition that shifted 00:06:18.670 --> 00:06:21.730 to Trump in 2024 is fracturing under this economic 00:06:21.730 --> 00:06:23.350 pressure. Yeah, the polling shifts are pretty 00:06:23.350 --> 00:06:25.810 dramatic. The analysis notes that swing groups, 00:06:26.069 --> 00:06:28.310 Latino voters, black voters, young voters and 00:06:28.310 --> 00:06:31.089 women are reportedly hopping mad. They were promised 00:06:31.089 --> 00:06:34.009 lower prices and economic stability, not a war 00:06:34.009 --> 00:06:36.769 and a resurgence of inflation. Right. Furthermore, 00:06:36.910 --> 00:06:39.670 the hardcore America First base is bailing because 00:06:39.670 --> 00:06:42.100 they explicitly voted against getting bogged 00:06:42.100 --> 00:06:45.060 down in a forever war in Iran. But let me push 00:06:45.060 --> 00:06:47.180 back a little on the data. Are these polling 00:06:47.180 --> 00:06:49.819 shifts permanent, or is this just the electorate 00:06:49.819 --> 00:06:52.040 reacting to a temporary spike in gas prices? 00:06:52.319 --> 00:06:54.079 Well, the authors suggest the administration 00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:56.860 is treating this as a severe midterm vulnerability. 00:06:57.100 --> 00:06:59.120 They are hemorrhaging support from the exact 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:01.439 demographics that delivered their previous margins. 00:07:02.139 --> 00:07:04.639 And historically, when domestic economic policy 00:07:04.639 --> 00:07:06.980 is struggling and a president is trapped in a 00:07:06.980 --> 00:07:09.959 tough foreign entanglement, they look for a geopolitical 00:07:09.959 --> 00:07:12.930 distraction. Which perfectly transitions us to 00:07:12.930 --> 00:07:15.170 the shield of the Americas meeting. Right. This 00:07:15.170 --> 00:07:17.949 was held recently at Trump's Doral Golf Club 00:07:17.949 --> 00:07:20.430 and the heavyweight attendees were all there. 00:07:20.569 --> 00:07:23.910 Leaders from Argentina, Bolivia. But the analysis 00:07:23.910 --> 00:07:27.310 points out two glaring omissions. The new U .S. 00:07:27.490 --> 00:07:30.310 envoy, Christine Noem, was completely absent. 00:07:30.449 --> 00:07:33.550 Yep. And Cuba was not represented at all. The 00:07:33.550 --> 00:07:36.050 rhetoric directed at Cuba during this was remarkably 00:07:36.050 --> 00:07:39.310 intense. Trump is quoted directly saying Cuba 00:07:39.310 --> 00:07:42.040 is at the end of line and calling it a bad regime. 00:07:42.420 --> 00:07:44.720 That's strong language. Based on this escalation, 00:07:44.860 --> 00:07:47.040 the electoral vote authors actually speculate 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:50.100 that an invasion of Cuba might be imminent. Really? 00:07:50.199 --> 00:07:52.540 An invasion? The reasoning is purely tactical. 00:07:53.100 --> 00:07:55.540 Cuba is militarily much easier to invade than 00:07:55.540 --> 00:07:58.420 Iran. It would offer a rapid, decisive geopolitical 00:07:58.420 --> 00:08:01.459 win. The text even mentions that Trump has allegedly 00:08:01.459 --> 00:08:04.199 floated the idea of installing Marco Rubio as 00:08:04.199 --> 00:08:06.430 the viceroy of Cuba. OK, here's where it gets 00:08:06.430 --> 00:08:09.750 really interesting. The source introduces a deeply 00:08:09.750 --> 00:08:12.509 cynical theory regarding these maneuvers. Yeah, 00:08:12.610 --> 00:08:15.069 this part is wild. They suggest that all the 00:08:15.069 --> 00:08:17.949 saber rattling at Cuba might just be a manufactured 00:08:17.949 --> 00:08:21.370 distraction from Iran. And the war in Iran might 00:08:21.370 --> 00:08:23.829 actually be a massive distraction from the newly 00:08:23.829 --> 00:08:26.889 released Epstein files. It is an incredibly cynical 00:08:26.889 --> 00:08:29.490 reading of the situation. But the source text 00:08:29.490 --> 00:08:32.799 argues that the timeline cannot be ignored. And 00:08:32.799 --> 00:08:35.179 here we must impartially report the legal facts 00:08:35.179 --> 00:08:37.360 regarding the Department of Justice and Attorney 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:40.960 General, Pam Bondi. Right. Despite earlier claims 00:08:40.960 --> 00:08:43.860 that all Epstein files had been released, a new 00:08:43.860 --> 00:08:46.279 cache of documents was just published. And the 00:08:46.279 --> 00:08:48.600 contents of those documents are explosive. The 00:08:48.600 --> 00:08:51.940 source specifically quotes a completely unverified 00:08:51.940 --> 00:08:54.840 FBI interview summary contained in these files. 00:08:54.940 --> 00:08:57.179 Right, an unverified summary. According to this 00:08:57.179 --> 00:08:59.879 FBI agent's document, an individual who is between 00:08:59.879 --> 00:09:02.879 13 and 15 years old claimed Trump asked everyone 00:09:02.879 --> 00:09:05.539 to leave a room and said, let me teach you how 00:09:05.539 --> 00:09:07.740 little girls are supposed to be. It's heavy stuff. 00:09:07.950 --> 00:09:11.350 The summary alleges he initiated a sexual encounter, 00:09:11.789 --> 00:09:14.389 which ended abruptly when the girl bit him and 00:09:14.389 --> 00:09:16.970 he yelled to get her out of the room. It is vital 00:09:16.970 --> 00:09:20.490 to reiterate to you, the listener, what the source 00:09:20.490 --> 00:09:23.730 explicitly notes. This is an unverified summary 00:09:23.730 --> 00:09:27.250 written by an FBI agent. Yes. However, the political 00:09:27.250 --> 00:09:30.649 reality is causing massive shockwaves. Democrats 00:09:30.649 --> 00:09:33.490 claim this is part of a massive cover up, alleging 00:09:33.490 --> 00:09:36.190 that up to two and a half million pages are still 00:09:36.190 --> 00:09:38.840 being hidden. Two and a half million. Yeah. Because 00:09:38.840 --> 00:09:41.059 of this, they have formally subpoenaed Attorney 00:09:41.059 --> 00:09:44.440 General Bondi to testify before the House Oversight 00:09:44.440 --> 00:09:46.539 Committee. So you have an administration fighting 00:09:46.539 --> 00:09:49.799 a stagflationary macro environment, an unpopular 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:52.000 conflict in the Middle East, and a massive subpoena 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:54.980 fight over explosive, unverified FBI documents. 00:09:54.980 --> 00:09:56.899 Right. You would think the opposition party would 00:09:56.899 --> 00:09:58.980 be perfectly positioned to run the table in the 00:09:58.980 --> 00:10:02.200 midterms, but the dynamic electoral vote outlines 00:10:02.200 --> 00:10:05.230 on the Democratic side is just as chaotic. That 00:10:05.230 --> 00:10:07.929 is the paradox of this specific moment. At the 00:10:07.929 --> 00:10:10.350 grassroots level, the Democrats are experiencing 00:10:10.350 --> 00:10:12.950 enthusiasm. They are winning special elections. 00:10:13.610 --> 00:10:16.750 But at the very top, the DNC itself is described 00:10:16.750 --> 00:10:19.669 by the source as highly dysfunctional. The numbers 00:10:19.669 --> 00:10:22.690 they provide on DNC chair Ken Martin are brutal. 00:10:23.429 --> 00:10:26.210 Financially, the party has only $15 million in 00:10:26.210 --> 00:10:29.570 the bank, but they are carrying $17 million in 00:10:29.570 --> 00:10:31.980 debt. Underwater. To give you context on why 00:10:31.980 --> 00:10:34.059 that matters, the Republican National Committee 00:10:34.059 --> 00:10:37.340 currently has $95 million in the bank. How do 00:10:37.340 --> 00:10:39.759 you run a national strategy with that disparity? 00:10:40.039 --> 00:10:42.220 You don't, which is why the internal fragmentation 00:10:42.220 --> 00:10:45.700 is so severe. The source details a massive fight 00:10:45.700 --> 00:10:48.500 over the 2028 primary schedule between South 00:10:48.500 --> 00:10:51.600 Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. Exactly. And on 00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:53.539 top of this, Chairman Martin is facing backlash 00:10:53.539 --> 00:10:57.019 because he buried the 2024 autopsy report, explaining 00:10:57.019 --> 00:10:59.820 why Kamala Harris lost. So you have this massive 00:10:59.820 --> 00:11:02.399 dysfunction at the top of the DNC. But contrast 00:11:02.399 --> 00:11:04.639 that with the ground level House race opportunities 00:11:04.639 --> 00:11:07.059 suddenly opening up. The source points out that 00:11:07.059 --> 00:11:09.419 redistricting and unforced Republican missteps 00:11:09.419 --> 00:11:12.659 are changing the map entirely. California's 48th 00:11:12.659 --> 00:11:15.059 District is a perfect example. Representative 00:11:15.059 --> 00:11:17.820 Darrell Issa, an extremely wealthy incumbent. 00:11:18.090 --> 00:11:21.889 retiring. Because Proposition 50 redrew his district 00:11:21.889 --> 00:11:25.289 making it blue. Right now he is stepping down 00:11:25.289 --> 00:11:27.950 and attempting to slip his chosen successor Jim 00:11:27.950 --> 00:11:30.500 Desmond into the race at the last minute. And 00:11:30.500 --> 00:11:33.100 we are seeing a similar panic in California's 00:11:33.100 --> 00:11:35.980 6th district. Representative Kevin Calley previously 00:11:35.980 --> 00:11:38.460 enjoyed an R -plus -2 district. Pop 50 broke 00:11:38.460 --> 00:11:40.960 that up. The source points out that Calley is 00:11:40.960 --> 00:11:43.100 now trying to run as an independent to actively 00:11:43.100 --> 00:11:45.659 distance himself from his Republican ties. But 00:11:45.659 --> 00:11:48.000 the most striking example comes from Texas's 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:50.940 23rd district. The incumbent Republican Tony 00:11:50.940 --> 00:11:54.139 Gonzalez was forced to resign following a scandal 00:11:54.139 --> 00:11:56.519 involving a staffer affair and suicide. Just 00:11:56.519 --> 00:11:59.480 a tragic situation. It is. And because Gonzalez 00:11:59.480 --> 00:12:02.600 was forced out, the new GOP nominee became Brendan 00:12:02.600 --> 00:12:05.799 Herrera. And Herrera is not your standard establishment 00:12:05.799 --> 00:12:08.559 Republican. The source describes him as a hard 00:12:08.559 --> 00:12:11.480 -right gun advocate known as the AK guy. Electoral 00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:13.840 vote elaborates heavily on why Herrera is such 00:12:13.840 --> 00:12:16.200 a volatile candidate. They note he owns a copy 00:12:16.200 --> 00:12:20.179 of Mein Kampf. Yeah. And he called a Nazi submachine 00:12:20.179 --> 00:12:23.669 gun Hitler's street sweeper. What makes this 00:12:23.669 --> 00:12:26.509 politically explosive is the geography of Texas's 00:12:26.509 --> 00:12:29.389 23rd district. It includes the city of Uvalde, 00:12:29.789 --> 00:12:32.350 the site of the horrific 2022 school shooting. 00:12:32.480 --> 00:12:35.600 You cannot script a more intense political collision. 00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:38.460 You have an extremely provocative gun advocate 00:12:38.460 --> 00:12:40.580 running in a community that suffered one of the 00:12:40.580 --> 00:12:43.480 worst gun tragedies in modern history. The text 00:12:43.480 --> 00:12:45.700 notes his Democratic opponent, Katie Padilla 00:12:45.700 --> 00:12:47.879 Stout, will make this a fiercely competitive 00:12:47.879 --> 00:12:50.179 race. Exactly. It highlights how a party can 00:12:50.179 --> 00:12:53.100 be dysfunctional nationally, yet gain ground 00:12:53.100 --> 00:12:55.740 because of local redistricting and opponent scandals. 00:12:55.879 --> 00:12:58.519 OK, so what does this all mean? When you take 00:12:58.519 --> 00:13:00.059 a step back, you can see the strings pulling 00:13:00.059 --> 00:13:02.399 everything together. A closed straight in the 00:13:02.399 --> 00:13:04.740 Middle East spikes the VIX and drives gas prices 00:13:04.740 --> 00:13:08.019 up. That macro reality strains consumer wallets, 00:13:08.080 --> 00:13:10.240 which instantly threatens an incumbent party's 00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:13.039 midterm hopes. Meanwhile, the opposition party 00:13:13.039 --> 00:13:15.700 battles its own financial ghosts but finds sudden 00:13:15.700 --> 00:13:17.980 luck in gerrymandered house districts. It is 00:13:17.980 --> 00:13:21.019 deeply interconnected. It truly is. And to leave 00:13:21.019 --> 00:13:22.899 you with a final thought built directly on the 00:13:22.899 --> 00:13:26.580 sources, if this oil shock forces refineries 00:13:26.580 --> 00:13:29.299 to shut down entirely due to a lack of storage, 00:13:29.659 --> 00:13:31.960 and the Fed is forced to jack up interest rates 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:35.080 just like they did in the 1970s to combat stagflation. 00:13:35.639 --> 00:13:38.080 What happens to the labor market when you combine 00:13:38.080 --> 00:13:40.940 1970s -style interest rates with Trump's brand 00:13:40.940 --> 00:13:44.120 -new executive order deregulating AI? Could we 00:13:44.120 --> 00:13:46.379 see a perfect storm where companies use expensive 00:13:46.379 --> 00:13:49.879 borrowing costs as the ultimate excuse to aggressively 00:13:49.879 --> 00:13:53.330 replace human workers with unregulated AI? That 00:13:53.330 --> 00:13:55.870 is a chilling combination of macroeconomics and 00:13:55.870 --> 00:13:58.009 technology to think about. It really shows how 00:13:58.009 --> 00:14:00.190 every single data point eventually impacts the 00:14:00.190 --> 00:14:02.149 real economy. Thank you so much for joining us 00:14:02.149 --> 00:14:04.470 on this deep dive. Keep asking questions and 00:14:04.470 --> 00:14:05.990 keep connecting the dots in your own research. 00:14:06.350 --> 00:14:07.029 We'll see you next time.