WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.779 Welcome to today's deep dive. We are thrilled 00:00:02.779 --> 00:00:04.519 to have you with us. If you've been looking at 00:00:04.519 --> 00:00:07.040 the news lately, scrolling through your feed 00:00:07.040 --> 00:00:09.919 and just feeling totally overwhelmed by the sheer 00:00:09.919 --> 00:00:13.660 unadulterated chaos of the current cycle, you 00:00:13.660 --> 00:00:16.300 are in the exact right place. Yeah, absolutely. 00:00:16.500 --> 00:00:18.219 We see you. We know you're looking for some clarity 00:00:18.219 --> 00:00:20.179 and we are going to get through this together 00:00:20.179 --> 00:00:23.760 today. We really do have a fascinating. convergence 00:00:23.760 --> 00:00:26.500 of events on the table, we are pulling from a 00:00:26.500 --> 00:00:30.500 massive stack of analysis today taking two complex 00:00:30.500 --> 00:00:33.640 storylines that, well, they might seem completely 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:35.659 separate at first glance. But they are actually 00:00:35.659 --> 00:00:37.880 colliding in some incredibly impactful ways. 00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:40.280 Exactly. On one side of the table, we have a 00:00:40.280 --> 00:00:42.780 granular precinct by precinct breakdown of the 00:00:42.780 --> 00:00:45.939 March 3rd, 2026 U .S. primaries. We're talking 00:00:45.939 --> 00:00:47.899 about absolute political earthquakes happening 00:00:47.899 --> 00:00:51.200 in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas. Plus some 00:00:51.200 --> 00:00:53.200 congressional drama that honestly feels like 00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:55.960 it was scripted for prestige television. It really 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:58.299 does. And then on the other side of the table, 00:00:58.299 --> 00:01:01.200 we have a high level macroeconomic analysis of 00:01:01.200 --> 00:01:04.079 the global market fallout following the recent 00:01:04.219 --> 00:01:07.739 U .S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. And our mission 00:01:07.739 --> 00:01:10.500 for this deep dive is to extract the signal from 00:01:10.500 --> 00:01:13.379 that noise for you. We want to help you understand 00:01:13.379 --> 00:01:16.439 exactly how domestic political volatility here 00:01:16.439 --> 00:01:19.859 in the U .S. and global energy shocks are intertwining. 00:01:20.060 --> 00:01:21.739 Right, and what that actually means for the world 00:01:21.739 --> 00:01:24.480 at large. Yeah, the real world application. But 00:01:24.480 --> 00:01:26.400 before we jump into the numbers, I want to speak 00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:29.799 to you, the listener, directly about the nature 00:01:29.799 --> 00:01:32.069 of the research we are unpacking today. It's 00:01:32.069 --> 00:01:34.709 an important caveat. Right. The political analysis 00:01:34.709 --> 00:01:37.849 we're working from contains some highly charged, 00:01:38.170 --> 00:01:40.590 very opinionated language from both the left 00:01:40.590 --> 00:01:43.250 and the right sides of the political aisle. Extremely 00:01:43.250 --> 00:01:45.870 charged. Because we are analyzing the raw political 00:01:45.870 --> 00:01:48.370 mechanics. You're going to hear us use terms 00:01:48.370 --> 00:01:51.250 directly from the text terms, like rat -fuking, 00:01:51.409 --> 00:01:54.689 Trumpy voters, lefties, and Maggier water carriers. 00:01:54.870 --> 00:01:56.930 And we want to state unequivocally that neither 00:01:56.930 --> 00:01:59.329 of us is taking a side here. Not at all. We are 00:01:59.329 --> 00:02:01.709 not endorsing these viewpoints, these candidates, 00:02:01.870 --> 00:02:04.409 or the language used by the analysts. We are 00:02:04.409 --> 00:02:06.870 strictly and impartially conveying the analysis 00:02:06.870 --> 00:02:09.289 and the ideas exactly as they are presented in 00:02:09.289 --> 00:02:11.509 the original source material. We want you to 00:02:11.509 --> 00:02:14.250 have the full, unfiltered picture of what the 00:02:14.250 --> 00:02:17.310 strategists are looking at. So, okay, let's unpack 00:02:17.310 --> 00:02:19.810 this. Let's do it. We need to start with the 00:02:19.810 --> 00:02:22.110 sheer scale of the political earthquakes we just 00:02:22.110 --> 00:02:24.969 saw, particularly focusing on the raw data coming 00:02:24.969 --> 00:02:27.789 out of Texas. It serves as a massive bellwether 00:02:27.789 --> 00:02:30.750 right now. Oh, absolutely. The GOP Senate runoff 00:02:30.750 --> 00:02:33.009 is undeniably the biggest story of the night. 00:02:33.210 --> 00:02:36.310 Huge. You have incumbent Senator John Cornyn 00:02:36.310 --> 00:02:38.710 and State Attorney General Ken Paxton finishing 00:02:38.710 --> 00:02:41.449 in what is essentially a dead heat. A total nail 00:02:41.449 --> 00:02:44.340 -biter. Right. Looking at the final tally. Cornyn 00:02:44.340 --> 00:02:48.259 got 41 .9 % of the vote, and Paxton got 40 .9%. 00:02:48.259 --> 00:02:50.960 And because neither of them crossed that 50 % 00:02:50.960 --> 00:02:53.319 threshold to avoid a runoff, they are heading 00:02:53.319 --> 00:02:56.840 to a brutal rematch on May 26. But the really 00:02:56.840 --> 00:02:59.639 crucial detail hiding in this data is the remaining 00:02:59.639 --> 00:03:03.199 13 % of voters, the ones who chose a third candidate. 00:03:03.340 --> 00:03:05.780 Wesley Hunt. Yeah, that 13 percent is everything. 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:08.000 The prevailing theory in the analysis is that 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:10.280 if voters know a high profile incumbent like 00:03:10.280 --> 00:03:12.699 Cornyn and still actively choose someone else, 00:03:13.060 --> 00:03:14.639 they are basically looking to throw the bums 00:03:14.639 --> 00:03:17.960 out. It indicates a massive anti -incumbent wave. 00:03:18.280 --> 00:03:21.159 Exactly. Meaning a huge chunk of those Hunt voters 00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:24.500 are highly likely to migrate straight to Paxton 00:03:24.500 --> 00:03:27.740 in the runoff. What's fascinating here is the 00:03:27.740 --> 00:03:30.360 financial ripple effect this creates. This stops 00:03:30.360 --> 00:03:33.120 being just a Texas problem and immediately becomes 00:03:33.120 --> 00:03:35.879 a National Republican Party problem. How so? 00:03:36.180 --> 00:03:39.360 Well, to save an incumbent like Cornyn in a state 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:42.840 as massive and expensive as Texas, the GOP is 00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:45.340 going to have to spend lavishly. Right. Texas 00:03:45.340 --> 00:03:47.909 media markets are not cheap. Not at all. The 00:03:47.909 --> 00:03:50.370 projections suggest they will need to burn through 00:03:50.370 --> 00:03:53.370 708 figures a week for the next 12 weeks leading 00:03:53.370 --> 00:03:56.169 up to that runoff. Oh, wow. 708 figures a week. 00:03:56.229 --> 00:03:58.110 Think about the practical mechanics of that. 00:03:58.270 --> 00:04:01.210 That is millions upon millions of dollars draining 00:04:01.210 --> 00:04:03.449 out of the national war chest in the spring. 00:04:03.550 --> 00:04:05.729 Money that simply will not be available in the 00:04:05.729 --> 00:04:07.969 fall. Exactly. It won't be there for the general 00:04:07.969 --> 00:04:10.889 election or to support other incredibly tight, 00:04:10.889 --> 00:04:13.949 vulnerable races across the country. It is a 00:04:13.949 --> 00:04:17.560 massive, unexpected resource sink. And the Democratic 00:04:17.560 --> 00:04:20.680 side of the Texas Senate race is just as wild, 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:23.000 largely because the polling leading up to it 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:26.199 was an absolute disaster. A total miss. State 00:04:26.199 --> 00:04:28.860 Representative James Tellerico defeated Representative 00:04:28.860 --> 00:04:33.139 Jasmine Crockett 53 percent to 46 percent. The 00:04:33.139 --> 00:04:35.339 data points out that pretty much every major 00:04:35.339 --> 00:04:38.899 pollster got this completely wrong. Say for one 00:04:38.899 --> 00:04:41.120 last minute YouGov poll that caught the late 00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:43.730 shift. Right, just the one YouGov poll. The big 00:04:43.730 --> 00:04:45.910 takeaway for anyone tracking this is that these 00:04:45.910 --> 00:04:48.069 primary electorates are going to be incredibly 00:04:48.069 --> 00:04:50.110 tough to pull this year. Highly unpredictable. 00:04:50.930 --> 00:04:52.949 But to understand why the vote actually shook 00:04:52.949 --> 00:04:55.550 out the way it did, the researchers provided 00:04:55.550 --> 00:04:59.069 three distinct maps of Texas. I want to describe 00:04:59.069 --> 00:05:01.850 these for you because they are incredibly revealing 00:05:01.850 --> 00:05:04.490 about voter behavior. They really paint a vivid 00:05:04.490 --> 00:05:06.470 picture of the underlying dynamics. You simply 00:05:06.470 --> 00:05:08.569 can't see this just by looking at the final vote 00:05:08.569 --> 00:05:11.670 tally. Right. So Map 1 shows the 2024 presidential 00:05:11.670 --> 00:05:14.589 vote broken down by county. Red shading for Trump 00:05:14.589 --> 00:05:17.329 counties. Blue shading for Harris counties. Map 00:05:17.329 --> 00:05:19.769 2 shows the results of this exact Democratic 00:05:19.769 --> 00:05:22.870 primary we're talking about. Orange shading for 00:05:22.870 --> 00:05:25.649 Tolerico counties. Blue shading for Crockett 00:05:25.649 --> 00:05:28.769 counties. Got it. And finally, map 3 shows the 00:05:28.769 --> 00:05:31.670 black population density of each county, with 00:05:31.670 --> 00:05:33.949 redder shades indicating a much higher black 00:05:33.949 --> 00:05:37.069 population. And the analysis draws two competing 00:05:37.069 --> 00:05:39.949 hypotheses by layering these maps over one another. 00:05:40.250 --> 00:05:42.269 And theory 1 and theory 2. Right. Theory 1 emerges 00:05:42.269 --> 00:05:45.410 when you pair map 1 with map 2. The geographic 00:05:45.410 --> 00:05:48.009 correlation there suggests a highly organized 00:05:48.009 --> 00:05:50.670 strategy that political operatives refer to as 00:05:50.670 --> 00:05:53.110 rat -fuking. Such an intense term. It is, but 00:05:53.110 --> 00:05:55.649 it describes a very specific tactic. This is 00:05:55.649 --> 00:05:57.730 the idea that that a significant number of Trump 00:05:57.730 --> 00:06:00.790 voters intentionally crossed over, requested 00:06:00.790 --> 00:06:03.209 Democratic ballots in the primary, and voted 00:06:03.209 --> 00:06:05.810 for Crockett. And their goal wouldn't be to actually 00:06:05.810 --> 00:06:08.509 elect her. No, simply to sabotage the Democrats 00:06:08.509 --> 00:06:10.629 by sticking them with a candidate they perceived 00:06:10.629 --> 00:06:13.009 as much less electable in a general election 00:06:13.009 --> 00:06:15.790 against a Republican. That level of coordinated 00:06:15.790 --> 00:06:18.269 crossover voting is wild to think about happening 00:06:18.269 --> 00:06:20.709 on a mass scale, but the data suggests it's a 00:06:20.709 --> 00:06:23.410 real possibility. It is, but then the researchers 00:06:23.410 --> 00:06:26.009 present theory too. Right, the second map layering. 00:06:26.220 --> 00:06:29.500 If you pair map two, the primary results, with 00:06:29.500 --> 00:06:32.000 map three, the black population density, it tells 00:06:32.000 --> 00:06:35.019 a completely different story, one purely of identity 00:06:35.019 --> 00:06:37.459 politics. Because Crockett performed exceptionally 00:06:37.459 --> 00:06:40.579 well in areas with higher black population. Exactly. 00:06:41.100 --> 00:06:43.720 If this second theory is the correct one, the 00:06:43.720 --> 00:06:45.759 analysis notes it's actually much better news 00:06:45.759 --> 00:06:48.060 for the Democratic Party overall. It just means 00:06:48.060 --> 00:06:50.100 Tallurico needs to find a way to bridge that 00:06:50.100 --> 00:06:52.339 gap and connect with black voters before the 00:06:52.339 --> 00:06:54.540 general election. And the strategist suggests 00:06:54.540 --> 00:06:56.949 this is highly doable. for him. They specifically 00:06:56.949 --> 00:06:59.430 note that he speaks fluent Christian and can 00:06:59.430 --> 00:07:01.569 likely appeal to those communities on shared 00:07:01.569 --> 00:07:04.029 cultural and religious grounds. It could very 00:07:04.029 --> 00:07:06.569 well be a mix of both theories. But either way, 00:07:06.810 --> 00:07:09.509 Tallarico has a huge opportunity to consolidate 00:07:09.509 --> 00:07:12.170 that base. Now here's where it gets really interesting. 00:07:13.290 --> 00:07:16.370 Yes. Because the chaos isn't just isolated to 00:07:16.370 --> 00:07:19.220 the Senate. The House of Representatives is dealing 00:07:19.220 --> 00:07:23.160 with a razor thin margin and the power of incumbency 00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:26.660 just took a massive unprecedented hit. We saw 00:07:26.660 --> 00:07:29.500 this exact same anti -incumbent fever breaking 00:07:29.500 --> 00:07:31.980 out in the North Carolina and Arkansas primaries 00:07:31.980 --> 00:07:35.060 as well. Establishment candidates finding themselves 00:07:35.060 --> 00:07:37.899 dragged into brutal purity tests. But the biggest 00:07:37.899 --> 00:07:41.060 shocker of them all. The fall of Representative 00:07:41.060 --> 00:07:43.899 Dan Crenshaw in Texas District 2. Yeah, that 00:07:43.899 --> 00:07:46.220 was stunning. He lost to State Representative 00:07:46.220 --> 00:07:50.300 Steve Toth by a staggering margin of 56 % to 00:07:50.300 --> 00:07:54.180 40 .5%. A margin of defeat that large? For a 00:07:54.180 --> 00:07:56.399 sitting incumbent with national name recognition, 00:07:56.660 --> 00:07:59.379 it's almost unheard of. It completely rewrites 00:07:59.379 --> 00:08:01.740 the conventional wisdom on how safe these seats 00:08:01.740 --> 00:08:03.699 are. Especially when you consider the voting 00:08:03.699 --> 00:08:06.699 record. The data shows Crenshaw voted with the 00:08:06.699 --> 00:08:09.399 mangy wing of the party 95 percent of the time. 00:08:09.480 --> 00:08:12.100 He was a reliable vote. But that remaining five 00:08:12.100 --> 00:08:14.699 percent where he diverged was fatal to his career. 00:08:14.879 --> 00:08:17.220 He was the only House incumbent running for reelection 00:08:17.220 --> 00:08:20.060 in Texas who did not secure Donald Trump's endorsement. 00:08:20.139 --> 00:08:22.680 Add to that the fact that Senator Ted Cruz actively 00:08:22.680 --> 00:08:24.620 campaigned against him in his own district and 00:08:24.620 --> 00:08:27.620 it was game over. It shows how rigid and unforgiving 00:08:27.620 --> 00:08:29.959 the purity tests have become these primaries. 00:08:30.079 --> 00:08:32.620 Having a 95 percent voting alignment used to 00:08:32.620 --> 00:08:36.740 make you bulletproof. Now, missing a single endorsement 00:08:36.740 --> 00:08:39.759 completely erased a massive incumbency advantage. 00:08:39.820 --> 00:08:42.700 Crazy to think about. And the rapid fire drama 00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:45.480 across the rest of the House races is just as 00:08:45.480 --> 00:08:48.220 intense. Take Texas District 15. The Democrats 00:08:48.220 --> 00:08:50.320 are desperately trying to win this red -leaning 00:08:50.320 --> 00:08:53.399 district back, and they nominated Bobby Polito. 00:08:53.779 --> 00:08:56.950 The Tejano music star. Right. The analysis literally 00:08:56.950 --> 00:09:00.070 compares this to Snoop Dogg running for Congress 00:09:00.070 --> 00:09:02.570 in South LA because Polito is massive in that 00:09:02.570 --> 00:09:05.269 scene. He cruised to victory with 68 % of the 00:09:05.269 --> 00:09:08.230 vote against Ada Quiller. But he comes with serious 00:09:08.230 --> 00:09:10.809 baggage. A huge history of social media posts 00:09:10.809 --> 00:09:13.049 that the strategist's note could easily be read 00:09:13.049 --> 00:09:16.350 as misogynist. His Republican opponent is undoubtedly 00:09:16.350 --> 00:09:18.690 going to weaponize that entire digital footprint 00:09:18.690 --> 00:09:20.509 against him in the general. It's the classic 00:09:20.509 --> 00:09:22.590 double -edged sword of running a celebrity candidate. 00:09:22.850 --> 00:09:25.409 You get incredible built -in name recognition 00:09:25.409 --> 00:09:27.250 and media coverage. But they often come with 00:09:27.250 --> 00:09:29.730 a highly unvetted public history that opposition 00:09:29.730 --> 00:09:32.360 researchers will just tear apart. Exactly. Then 00:09:32.360 --> 00:09:34.860 you have Texas District 23, which is heading 00:09:34.860 --> 00:09:38.019 to a wildly chaotic runoff. You have incumbent 00:09:38.019 --> 00:09:40.500 representative Tony Gonzalez, who is currently 00:09:40.500 --> 00:09:43.620 embroiled in a massive scandal involving an alleged 00:09:43.620 --> 00:09:46.080 affair with a staffer who subsequently committed 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:48.820 suicide. Such a dark storyline for a campaign. 00:09:49.059 --> 00:09:51.440 Very. And he's up against Brandon Herrera, who 00:09:51.440 --> 00:09:54.460 the researchers describe as a gun fanatic whose 00:09:54.460 --> 00:09:57.019 public platform essentially argues that every 00:09:57.019 --> 00:09:59.799 home needs an AK -47 right next to the broom. 00:10:00.019 --> 00:10:01.279 And after all, While the votes were counted, 00:10:01.539 --> 00:10:03.179 they're separated by less than two percentage 00:10:03.179 --> 00:10:06.480 points. Insane margins. But while these local 00:10:06.480 --> 00:10:08.919 races provide a lot of localized drama, we have 00:10:08.919 --> 00:10:11.399 to shift our focus to South Carolina. Because 00:10:11.399 --> 00:10:13.340 what is happening there with Representative Nancy 00:10:13.340 --> 00:10:16.159 Mase has direct macro political implications 00:10:16.159 --> 00:10:18.379 for the entire U .S. House of Representatives. 00:10:18.659 --> 00:10:20.679 Let's get into it. The House Ethics Committee 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:22.580 recently announced they are investigating her 00:10:22.580 --> 00:10:24.899 for allegedly padding her housing reimbursements 00:10:24.899 --> 00:10:28.460 by about $10 ,000. And the character assessment 00:10:28.460 --> 00:10:31.750 in the analysis doesn't any punches either. They 00:10:31.750 --> 00:10:33.710 note she has a reputation for anger management 00:10:33.710 --> 00:10:36.809 issues and is incredibly unpopular with her colleagues 00:10:36.809 --> 00:10:39.110 on Capitol Hill. The macro political threat here 00:10:39.110 --> 00:10:42.450 is profound. Mace is already retiring from the 00:10:42.450 --> 00:10:44.289 House to run for governor of South Carolina. 00:10:44.389 --> 00:10:47.110 Right. Because she is not viewed as a team player 00:10:47.110 --> 00:10:49.769 and has such fraught relationships in Washington, 00:10:50.450 --> 00:10:52.490 the strategist theorized she might just quit 00:10:52.490 --> 00:10:55.519 the House early out of spite. Wow. And if she 00:10:55.519 --> 00:10:58.679 resigns before her term is up, it severely threatens 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:01.340 Speaker Mike Johnson's incredibly thin majority 00:11:01.340 --> 00:11:03.779 margin. It brings the mathematical possibility 00:11:03.779 --> 00:11:06.539 of him losing the gavel completely into view. 00:11:06.740 --> 00:11:08.820 Every single seat is a load -bearing wall right 00:11:08.820 --> 00:11:12.080 now. Exactly. Meanwhile, the exact opposite kind 00:11:12.080 --> 00:11:14.279 of luck is happening in New York for Republican 00:11:14.279 --> 00:11:18.419 Representative Nicole Maliotakis. She was essentially 00:11:18.419 --> 00:11:21.480 saved by the Supreme Court's shadow docket. Which 00:11:21.480 --> 00:11:24.009 is a huge deal. For those who aren't deep into 00:11:24.009 --> 00:11:27.269 legal jargon, the shadow docket refers to emergency 00:11:27.269 --> 00:11:29.909 orders and summary decisions made by the Supreme 00:11:29.909 --> 00:11:32.509 Court without going through the usual lengthy 00:11:32.509 --> 00:11:35.529 process of full briefings and oral arguments. 00:11:35.730 --> 00:11:37.730 Two New York courts had ruled against her in 00:11:37.730 --> 00:11:40.230 a redistricting case, which would have redrawn 00:11:40.230 --> 00:11:42.870 her map unfavorably. The U .S. Supreme Court 00:11:42.870 --> 00:11:45.029 stepped in via the shadow docket and put the 00:11:45.029 --> 00:11:47.590 New York court's decision on hold. And the legal 00:11:47.590 --> 00:11:50.309 analysis notes there was a concurrence from Justice 00:11:50.309 --> 00:11:53.610 Samuel Alito and likely five or six conservative 00:11:53.610 --> 00:11:56.950 justices backing the stay, signaling strong support 00:11:56.950 --> 00:11:59.330 for her position. The timing is everything here. 00:11:59.570 --> 00:12:01.690 Because the filing deadline in New York is June 00:12:01.690 --> 00:12:04.529 23rd, the normal appeals process won't play out 00:12:04.529 --> 00:12:06.570 in time to change the maps for this election. 00:12:06.730 --> 00:12:09.169 So she gets a free pass. Right. An easy run in 00:12:09.169 --> 00:12:11.929 what we call an R plus 10 district. That simply 00:12:11.929 --> 00:12:13.970 means the district's voter base already leans 00:12:13.970 --> 00:12:17.289 Republican by a massive 10 point mark. She is 00:12:17.289 --> 00:12:19.429 incredibly safe before any new redistricting 00:12:19.429 --> 00:12:21.840 can actually threaten her seat. It perfectly 00:12:21.840 --> 00:12:24.179 illustrates how judicial timing and procedural 00:12:24.179 --> 00:12:26.879 maneuvers can be just as critical as voter turnout 00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:29.200 when the margins in the House of Representatives 00:12:29.200 --> 00:12:31.799 are this incredibly tight. So if you're keeping 00:12:31.799 --> 00:12:34.460 track, we have all this incredible volatility 00:12:34.460 --> 00:12:37.120 at the ballot box. Politicians fighting for their 00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:39.960 political lives, historical incumbency advantages 00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:43.059 evaporating and legislative margins shrinking 00:12:43.059 --> 00:12:46.000 to almost nothing. Right. But what happens when 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:48.860 you take a deeply fractured, hyper -partisan 00:12:48.860 --> 00:12:51.509 U .S. government that is fighting over single 00:12:51.509 --> 00:12:54.750 seats and you hit it with a massive unexpected 00:12:54.750 --> 00:12:57.289 global crisis? That is the big question. That 00:12:57.289 --> 00:13:00.429 brings us to our second major storyline. The 00:13:00.429 --> 00:13:03.149 research provides a deep dive into the macroeconomic 00:13:03.149 --> 00:13:05.929 fallout from the recent U .S. and Israeli strikes 00:13:05.929 --> 00:13:08.710 on Iran and the subsequent death of Iranian leadership. 00:13:08.990 --> 00:13:11.269 If we connect this to the bigger picture, the 00:13:11.269 --> 00:13:13.149 domestic political instability we just spent 00:13:13.149 --> 00:13:15.610 time unpacking is going to be severely tested 00:13:15.610 --> 00:13:18.009 by external economic pressures. Yeah, without 00:13:18.009 --> 00:13:20.429 a doubt. The macroeconomic analysts outline two 00:13:20.429 --> 00:13:22.649 distinct market disruption scenarios following 00:13:22.649 --> 00:13:25.210 these strikes. The first is the moderate disruption 00:13:25.210 --> 00:13:27.570 scenario. In this scenario, the assumption is 00:13:27.570 --> 00:13:31.330 that primarily Iranian crude exports are impeded. 00:13:31.549 --> 00:13:34.090 Iran exports roughly two million barrels of oil 00:13:34.090 --> 00:13:37.899 per day. If that supply is choked off, The models 00:13:37.899 --> 00:13:41.120 show oil spiking to around $80 to $90 per barrel. 00:13:41.700 --> 00:13:44.259 But the analysts anticipate this specific spike 00:13:44.259 --> 00:13:46.580 would be relatively short -lived. Why is that? 00:13:47.240 --> 00:13:50.100 Because a post -Khamenei Tehran is going to desperately 00:13:50.100 --> 00:13:52.759 need sound economics and oil revenue simply to 00:13:52.759 --> 00:13:55.909 ensure regime survival. If the new leadership 00:13:55.909 --> 00:13:58.210 adopts a more practical stance to keep the cash 00:13:58.210 --> 00:14:01.149 flowing, the global economy could actually absorb 00:14:01.149 --> 00:14:04.029 this shock relatively well through standard fiscal 00:14:04.029 --> 00:14:06.309 interventions and tapping reserves. So that is 00:14:06.309 --> 00:14:08.870 the absolute best -case scenario. Yes. But the 00:14:08.870 --> 00:14:10.789 second scenario outlined in the research is much 00:14:10.789 --> 00:14:13.309 darker, and that is the material disruption scenario. 00:14:13.509 --> 00:14:15.929 This happens if the conflict doesn't stay contained. 00:14:16.110 --> 00:14:18.669 Right. If it widens to other energy -producing 00:14:18.669 --> 00:14:20.960 neighbors in the Persian Gulf, And specifically, 00:14:21.360 --> 00:14:23.960 if transit through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly 00:14:23.960 --> 00:14:26.220 blocked or threatened. And the data they provided 00:14:26.220 --> 00:14:28.419 in the Strait of Hormuz is frankly terrifying. 00:14:29.000 --> 00:14:32.379 20 million barrels of oil per day travel through 00:14:32.379 --> 00:14:36.259 that specific geographic bottleneck. 80 % of 00:14:36.259 --> 00:14:38.340 that oil goes directly to Asia. And if it's blocked? 00:14:38.809 --> 00:14:41.370 The International Energy Agency estimates that 00:14:41.370 --> 00:14:45.049 only 3 .5 to 5 .5 million barrels can be safely 00:14:45.049 --> 00:14:47.789 redirected using existing pipeline capacities. 00:14:48.289 --> 00:14:51.029 That leaves a massive gaping hole in the global 00:14:51.029 --> 00:14:54.009 energy supply. You simply cannot put 20 million 00:14:54.009 --> 00:14:56.250 barrels of oil on a fleet of trucks to get around 00:14:56.250 --> 00:14:59.309 a blockade. No, you can't. In this material scenario, 00:14:59.570 --> 00:15:02.370 oil wouldn't just spike to $90. The models project 00:15:02.370 --> 00:15:04.549 it would spike well over $100 per barrel and 00:15:04.549 --> 00:15:06.610 stay there for a sustained period. We're talking 00:15:06.610 --> 00:15:08.779 about a shock to the system, much like we saw 00:15:08.779 --> 00:15:12.080 in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 00:15:12.340 --> 00:15:14.639 To put the severity of that in perspective, the 00:15:14.639 --> 00:15:16.740 analysts included some fascinating historical 00:15:16.740 --> 00:15:18.720 chart data. Yeah, this part was super interesting. 00:15:18.820 --> 00:15:21.080 If you look at major geopolitical events over 00:15:21.080 --> 00:15:23.080 the last few decades, mapping everything from 00:15:23.080 --> 00:15:26.240 the Gulf War in 1990 all the way to the October 00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:30.259 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the mean price increase 00:15:30.259 --> 00:15:33.220 of Brent crude oil usually stays below 10 % in 00:15:33.220 --> 00:15:35.860 the 100 days following the initial shock. But 00:15:35.860 --> 00:15:38.320 when you have an extreme disruption, Like the 00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:40.539 complete blockage of a major artery like the 00:15:40.539 --> 00:15:43.659 Strait of Hormuz, that spike can easily exceed 00:15:43.659 --> 00:15:47.440 40%. in less than 100 days. This raises an important 00:15:47.440 --> 00:15:50.000 question. How does a 40 % spike in the price 00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:52.779 of crude oil actually hit global growth? Right. 00:15:53.159 --> 00:15:55.039 And more importantly for you listening, how does 00:15:55.039 --> 00:15:58.379 it hit your wallet? The economists provide a 00:15:58.379 --> 00:16:01.200 really useful macroeconomic rule of thumb to 00:16:01.200 --> 00:16:03.820 understand this translation from barrel price 00:16:03.820 --> 00:16:06.039 to everyday life. I love a good rule of thumb. 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:09.539 Every sustained $10 per barrel increase in the 00:16:09.539 --> 00:16:13.120 price of oil lowers global GDP growth by 10 to 00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:15.169 20 basis points. Let's translate that out of 00:16:15.169 --> 00:16:17.549 Wall Street speak for a second. A basis point 00:16:17.549 --> 00:16:19.730 is simply one hundredth of a percentage point. 00:16:19.929 --> 00:16:23.429 So 10 to 20 basis points is a 0 .1 to 0 .2 percent 00:16:23.429 --> 00:16:26.129 drop in total global economic growth. It might 00:16:26.129 --> 00:16:28.090 sound like a tiny fraction. But when you apply 00:16:28.090 --> 00:16:30.230 it to the massive scale of the entire global 00:16:30.230 --> 00:16:32.649 economy, it represents hundreds of billions of 00:16:32.649 --> 00:16:34.850 dollars evaporating into thin air. It acts like 00:16:34.850 --> 00:16:37.470 a massive hidden tax on every single consumer 00:16:37.470 --> 00:16:40.549 and business on Earth. It lowers real disposable 00:16:40.549 --> 00:16:43.029 income everywhere. People spend more to heat 00:16:43.029 --> 00:16:44.929 their homes and fill their cars, which means 00:16:44.929 --> 00:16:46.950 they spend less on everything else, slowing down 00:16:46.950 --> 00:16:49.980 the entire economic engine. Right. But. And this 00:16:49.980 --> 00:16:52.379 is a crucial distinction the analysts make. The 00:16:52.379 --> 00:16:54.860 United States is uniquely positioned to handle 00:16:54.860 --> 00:16:58.259 this. Yes. The data points out a huge structural 00:16:58.259 --> 00:17:01.200 advantage for the U .S. Because of our massive 00:17:01.200 --> 00:17:03.299 domestic oil production over the last decade, 00:17:03.799 --> 00:17:06.240 the United States is essentially insulated from 00:17:06.240 --> 00:17:09.000 the absolute worst of the blow. That exact same 00:17:09.289 --> 00:17:12.710 $10 per barrel increase that knocks 20 basis 00:17:12.710 --> 00:17:15.569 points off global growth. It only trims three 00:17:15.569 --> 00:17:17.650 to five basis points from the U .S. baseline 00:17:17.650 --> 00:17:20.369 growth. Our domestic production acts as a massive 00:17:20.369 --> 00:17:23.369 heavy duty shock absorber for the American economy. 00:17:23.529 --> 00:17:25.910 Which brings us to the practical application 00:17:25.910 --> 00:17:27.930 of all this heavy data. So what does this all 00:17:27.930 --> 00:17:29.829 mean for you? If you're sitting there looking 00:17:29.829 --> 00:17:32.029 at your retirement portfolio right now or preparing 00:17:32.029 --> 00:17:34.890 for a board meeting wondering how a Texas primary 00:17:34.890 --> 00:17:36.950 or a Middle Eastern conflict affects your bottom 00:17:36.950 --> 00:17:40.250 line. This next part is exactly why we pull these 00:17:40.250 --> 00:17:42.710 specific sources. The financial analysts break 00:17:42.710 --> 00:17:45.329 down a very specific asset class strategy for 00:17:45.329 --> 00:17:48.690 navigating this exact environment. First, they 00:17:48.690 --> 00:17:50.910 recommend being overweight on precious metals 00:17:50.910 --> 00:17:54.670 and commodities. In a world defined by geopolitical 00:17:54.670 --> 00:17:57.650 upheaval and stagflationary risks, which is that 00:17:57.650 --> 00:18:00.650 nasty economic combination of stagnant economic 00:18:00.650 --> 00:18:03.609 growth happening at the same time as high inflation, 00:18:04.170 --> 00:18:07.549 these tangible assets act as a vital hedge. Makes 00:18:07.549 --> 00:18:10.049 total sense. Second, traditional safe havens 00:18:10.049 --> 00:18:12.269 like U .S. treasuries and the U .S. dollar are 00:18:12.269 --> 00:18:14.470 highly likely to regain their premium status. 00:18:14.750 --> 00:18:17.259 When global panic sets in, Institutional money 00:18:17.259 --> 00:18:19.740 will flock to them for security, but the warning 00:18:19.740 --> 00:18:21.980 lights in these reports are really flashing red 00:18:21.980 --> 00:18:24.599 for risk assets Yeah, we are talking about everyday 00:18:24.599 --> 00:18:27.460 equities growth stocks and corporate bonds risk 00:18:27.460 --> 00:18:31.019 assets are highly vulnerable to a severe Downward 00:18:31.019 --> 00:18:33.079 repricing right now and it's not just because 00:18:33.079 --> 00:18:35.859 of the oil shock and a vacuum. It is a compounding 00:18:35.859 --> 00:18:39.000 effect a perfect storm You have the massive energy 00:18:39.000 --> 00:18:42.779 spike combined with ongoing structural disruptions 00:18:42.779 --> 00:18:45.279 from artificial intelligence completely reshaping 00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:47.940 industries, plus massive uncertainties around 00:18:47.940 --> 00:18:50.920 U .S. trade policies and upcoming Federal Reserve 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:53.640 appointments. And when central banks see an energy 00:18:53.640 --> 00:18:56.799 shock, their immediate reflex is to worry about 00:18:56.799 --> 00:18:59.319 inflation. Exactly. They might hike interest 00:18:59.319 --> 00:19:02.140 rates in response or keep them higher for longer. 00:19:02.900 --> 00:19:05.750 Because of all that compounding pressure, credit 00:19:05.750 --> 00:19:08.609 spreads are poised to widen significantly. For 00:19:08.609 --> 00:19:11.230 those outside the bond market, a credit spread 00:19:11.230 --> 00:19:13.549 is the difference in yield between a safe government 00:19:13.549 --> 00:19:16.789 bond and a riskier corporate bond. And when that 00:19:16.789 --> 00:19:18.750 spread widens, it means borrowing money just 00:19:18.750 --> 00:19:20.930 got a lot more expensive for businesses, which 00:19:20.930 --> 00:19:24.230 cuts into profits, slows down hiring, and ultimately 00:19:24.230 --> 00:19:26.509 hits stock prices. It really is a perfect storm 00:19:26.509 --> 00:19:29.029 of volatility, which brings us full circle to 00:19:29.029 --> 00:19:31.789 synthesize what we've been unpacking today. 2026 00:19:31.789 --> 00:19:34.829 is shaping up to be a year completely defined 00:19:34.829 --> 00:19:38.450 by razor -thin margins. We are seeing it in the 00:19:38.450 --> 00:19:41.670 dead heat primary runoffs in Texas, the single 00:19:41.670 --> 00:19:43.829 -digit margins of error for the Speaker of the 00:19:43.829 --> 00:19:46.809 House, and the incredibly fragile supply chains 00:19:46.809 --> 00:19:49.369 passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Understanding 00:19:49.369 --> 00:19:52.809 how these dual currents domestic political chaos 00:19:52.809 --> 00:19:55.789 and global energy shocks interact is what allows 00:19:55.789 --> 00:19:58.490 you to anticipate rather than just react. Absolutely. 00:19:58.630 --> 00:20:00.970 Whether you are prepping for a major corporate 00:20:00.970 --> 00:20:03.230 strategy meeting tomorrow morning or you're just 00:20:03.230 --> 00:20:05.450 casually checking your portfolio over coffee, 00:20:05.829 --> 00:20:07.930 knowing that a single representative resigning 00:20:07.930 --> 00:20:11.190 in South Carolina or a single pipeline maxing 00:20:11.190 --> 00:20:13.549 out in the Middle East can trigger a massive 00:20:13.549 --> 00:20:15.769 cascade effect gives you a distinct advantage. 00:20:15.869 --> 00:20:18.069 And that leaves us with one final incredibly 00:20:18.029 --> 00:20:19.910 provocative thought from all this research for 00:20:19.910 --> 00:20:22.390 you to chew on. We just established that U .S. 00:20:22.450 --> 00:20:25.390 domestic energy production is the primary heavy 00:20:25.390 --> 00:20:28.329 duty shield protecting the American economy from 00:20:28.329 --> 00:20:30.890 a devastating global oil shock. So the question 00:20:30.890 --> 00:20:35.009 is, how will the highly volatile, totally unpredictable 00:20:35.009 --> 00:20:37.490 politicians we just saw fighting for their political 00:20:37.490 --> 00:20:40.609 lives in these chaotic primaries wield that economic 00:20:40.609 --> 00:20:42.930 shield heading into the general election? Because 00:20:42.930 --> 00:20:46.170 when the political margin for error is exactly 00:20:46.170 --> 00:20:49.779 zero, Every single policy decision, especially 00:20:49.779 --> 00:20:52.980 around energy, becomes a weapon. It is a dynamic 00:20:52.980 --> 00:20:55.500 that is going to shape the entirety of the global 00:20:55.500 --> 00:20:57.380 economy for the rest of the year, without a doubt. 00:20:57.559 --> 00:20:59.660 It really is. We want to thank you so much for 00:20:59.660 --> 00:21:02.019 joining us on this deep dive. We hope digging 00:21:02.019 --> 00:21:04.579 into this day to help cut through the noise and 00:21:04.579 --> 00:21:07.180 brought some real clarity to your day. Stay curious, 00:21:07.480 --> 00:21:09.180 keep paying close attention to those margins, 00:21:09.339 --> 00:21:10.779 and we will catch you next time.