WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.059 Welcome to the Deep Dive. It is Monday, March 00:00:04.059 --> 00:00:07.299 2, 2026. And if you've been looking at the headlines 00:00:07.299 --> 00:00:09.519 lately and feeling like the entire world is just 00:00:09.519 --> 00:00:12.539 vibrating at this frequency of pure chaos, you 00:00:12.539 --> 00:00:14.759 are definitely not alone. No, you're really not. 00:00:14.939 --> 00:00:17.859 Yeah. So we've got this massive stack of current 00:00:17.859 --> 00:00:21.079 political analysis, geopolitical updates, and 00:00:21.079 --> 00:00:23.420 some really fascinating financial and cultural 00:00:23.420 --> 00:00:25.559 research to get through today. And the mission 00:00:25.559 --> 00:00:27.969 is simple. We're going to unpack all of this, 00:00:28.129 --> 00:00:30.070 connect the dots and try to figure out exactly 00:00:30.070 --> 00:00:32.810 why the ground feels like it's shifting under 00:00:32.810 --> 00:00:34.729 our feet right now because we're jumping from 00:00:34.729 --> 00:00:37.450 a brand new explosive war in the Middle East 00:00:37.450 --> 00:00:40.810 to government funds buying luxury deportation 00:00:40.810 --> 00:00:43.689 jets to a sudden massive collapse in the alcohol 00:00:43.689 --> 00:00:46.090 industry. And believe it or not, it is all connected 00:00:46.090 --> 00:00:49.210 by a predictable 100 year historical cycle. But 00:00:49.210 --> 00:00:50.770 before we jump into any of that, I do need to 00:00:50.770 --> 00:00:52.670 take a very quick second to speak directly to 00:00:52.670 --> 00:00:54.710 you, our listener, because the materials we are 00:00:54.710 --> 00:00:56.740 unpacking today contain highly charged political 00:00:56.740 --> 00:00:59.020 content. And it spans across both left -wing 00:00:59.020 --> 00:01:00.640 and right -wing perspectives. So I want to make 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:02.359 it crystal clear right out of the gate, we are 00:01:02.359 --> 00:01:05.239 not taking sides. Right. Absolutely not. We are 00:01:05.239 --> 00:01:07.859 not endorsing any of the political viewpoints, 00:01:07.980 --> 00:01:10.140 the military actions, or the domestic policies 00:01:10.140 --> 00:01:12.620 that we're going to discuss today. Our job here 00:01:12.620 --> 00:01:15.319 is strictly to act as your impartial guides. 00:01:15.719 --> 00:01:17.980 We are just conveying the factual claims, the 00:01:17.980 --> 00:01:20.780 raw data, and the ideas exactly as they're presented 00:01:20.780 --> 00:01:23.950 in the original source materials. Exactly. We're 00:01:23.950 --> 00:01:26.750 just the messengers here. And today, I mean, 00:01:26.829 --> 00:01:29.409 the message is wild. So let's jump right into 00:01:29.409 --> 00:01:31.109 the geopolitical earthquake that happened over 00:01:31.109 --> 00:01:34.189 the weekend. The facts on the ground are just 00:01:34.189 --> 00:01:36.769 staggering. According to the overnight reporting 00:01:36.769 --> 00:01:39.849 from our sources, 86 year old Iranian Supreme 00:01:39.849 --> 00:01:42.790 Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been confirmed. 00:01:43.019 --> 00:01:45.540 Dead. Yeah, his body was recovered from the rubble 00:01:45.540 --> 00:01:48.180 of a government building. Right. And it is entirely 00:01:48.180 --> 00:01:50.519 clear that the United States provided the firepower 00:01:50.519 --> 00:01:52.799 for this. The Trump administration is officially 00:01:52.799 --> 00:01:55.599 calling it Operation Epic Fury. The messaging 00:01:55.599 --> 00:01:58.260 coming out of the administration regarding Operation 00:01:58.260 --> 00:02:01.260 Epic Fury is really what requires a closer look 00:02:01.260 --> 00:02:04.680 here. If you watch the eight minute speech President 00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:06.700 Trump delivered to the nation to explain the 00:02:06.700 --> 00:02:09.379 attack, the geopolitical analysts were following. 00:02:09.849 --> 00:02:12.629 point out some massive glaring contradictions. 00:02:13.090 --> 00:02:16.169 In that very speech, the president repeated a 00:02:16.169 --> 00:02:19.330 claim that the U .S. military had already completely 00:02:19.330 --> 00:02:22.169 obliterated Iran's nuclear capacity nine months 00:02:22.169 --> 00:02:25.550 ago. But then literally sentences later, he stated 00:02:25.550 --> 00:02:28.729 that the primary justification for this new massive 00:02:28.729 --> 00:02:31.830 bombing campaign is to prevent Iran from developing 00:02:31.830 --> 00:02:34.270 a nuclear weapon. Right. It's this weird logical 00:02:34.270 --> 00:02:36.270 loop. It's like, well, we destroyed it, but we 00:02:36.270 --> 00:02:38.210 have to bomb them to stop them from building 00:02:38.210 --> 00:02:40.469 the thing we already did. destroyed. Precisely. 00:02:40.650 --> 00:02:43.349 And the scale of this is shifting rapidly. With 00:02:43.349 --> 00:02:45.949 the recent intervention in Venezuela, the administration 00:02:45.949 --> 00:02:48.430 pitched it to the public as a very surgical in 00:02:48.430 --> 00:02:51.389 and out quick strike. But with Iran, the Pentagon 00:02:51.389 --> 00:02:53.729 is already publicly promising at least a full 00:02:53.729 --> 00:02:56.150 week of continuous bombing, which is huge. It's 00:02:56.150 --> 00:02:58.949 a massive signal to the international community. 00:02:59.030 --> 00:03:01.750 This is not a targeted drone strike. It is a 00:03:01.750 --> 00:03:04.949 substantial, potentially prolonged military commitment, 00:03:05.409 --> 00:03:07.650 which brings up a really fascinating historical 00:03:07.650 --> 00:03:10.460 problem, which is how does a modern president 00:03:10.460 --> 00:03:14.219 actually sell a war to the public? One of the 00:03:14.219 --> 00:03:16.740 historians in our stack, Professor Z, gave this 00:03:16.740 --> 00:03:19.639 brilliant lecture breaking down the four recurrent 00:03:19.639 --> 00:03:21.699 arguments administrations have used over the 00:03:21.699 --> 00:03:24.659 last 150 years. And it really puts today into 00:03:24.659 --> 00:03:26.719 perspective. It's a great framework. It really 00:03:26.719 --> 00:03:28.719 is. So the first bucket is economics. Think of 00:03:28.719 --> 00:03:30.699 the Spanish -American War, where the pitch was 00:03:30.699 --> 00:03:33.000 all about protecting global trade routes. Then 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:36.159 the second is making America safer. which historically 00:03:36.159 --> 00:03:39.020 meant seizing islands to build naval coaling 00:03:39.020 --> 00:03:41.120 stations for strategic dominance. Right, the 00:03:41.120 --> 00:03:44.620 old Mahanism strategy. Exactly, Mahanism. Then 00:03:44.620 --> 00:03:46.819 the third argument is rescuing the less fortunate. 00:03:46.990 --> 00:03:50.189 This is that classic, very outdated white man's 00:03:50.189 --> 00:03:52.810 birding concept of going in to save a population 00:03:52.810 --> 00:03:55.590 from themselves. And finally, the fourth argument 00:03:55.590 --> 00:03:59.169 is fighting evil, which usually hinges on highlighting 00:03:59.169 --> 00:04:01.789 extreme human rights abuses, like the Spanish 00:04:01.789 --> 00:04:05.430 prison camps in Cuba back in the 1890s to justify 00:04:05.430 --> 00:04:08.389 military intervention. But when you apply Professor 00:04:08.389 --> 00:04:11.030 Z's framework to the present day, the historical 00:04:11.030 --> 00:04:13.889 playbook is completely failing. I mean, the administration 00:04:13.889 --> 00:04:16.170 tried to run this playbook with the recent Venezuela 00:04:16.170 --> 00:04:18.910 invasion. They leaned heavily on the making of 00:04:18.910 --> 00:04:21.829 America safer argument by explicitly tying the 00:04:21.829 --> 00:04:24.269 Venezuelan regime to the U .S. fentanyl crisis. 00:04:24.589 --> 00:04:26.410 But the public just didn't buy it. The polling 00:04:26.410 --> 00:04:28.930 data showed they flat out didn't buy the connection. 00:04:28.930 --> 00:04:31.829 And the PR campaign was incredibly rushed. To 00:04:31.829 --> 00:04:34.089 put it in perspective for you, the Bush administration 00:04:34.089 --> 00:04:37.399 spent 18 months meticulous selling the Iraq war 00:04:37.399 --> 00:04:39.459 to the public, setting up narratives, going to 00:04:39.459 --> 00:04:42.199 the UN, building a massive coalition. With Iran, 00:04:42.300 --> 00:04:44.500 there is no concrete narrative being articulated 00:04:44.500 --> 00:04:47.000 beyond general statements about terrorism. And 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:49.660 the most crucial missing piece is that Iran didn't 00:04:49.660 --> 00:04:52.319 actually attack the United States first. You 00:04:52.319 --> 00:04:54.480 have an American public that is already exhausted 00:04:54.480 --> 00:04:57.459 by forever wars, which, by the way, is exactly 00:04:57.459 --> 00:04:59.420 what this administration campaigned on ending. 00:04:59.879 --> 00:05:02.379 So if the traditional playbook isn't working 00:05:02.379 --> 00:05:04.740 and the state of reasons are full of contradictions, 00:05:04.990 --> 00:05:07.329 What is really going on? This is where the financial 00:05:07.329 --> 00:05:10.730 tracking gets absolutely jaw -dropping. The suggestion 00:05:10.730 --> 00:05:13.209 here from the sources is that we need to follow 00:05:13.209 --> 00:05:15.829 the money. and it paints a picture of the U .S. 00:05:16.149 --> 00:05:18.670 military potentially acting as regional mercenaries. 00:05:19.009 --> 00:05:21.170 The transactional timeline is certainly raising 00:05:21.170 --> 00:05:23.709 major alarms among financial and intelligence 00:05:23.709 --> 00:05:26.310 analysts. You have Saudi Arabia, which views 00:05:26.310 --> 00:05:29.970 Iran as an existential mortal enemy, having previously 00:05:29.970 --> 00:05:33.089 injected a $2 billion investment fund directly 00:05:33.089 --> 00:05:37.660 into Jared Kushner's firm. $2 billion. Yes. Then 00:05:37.660 --> 00:05:40.519 you look at the United Arab Emirates. They are 00:05:40.519 --> 00:05:43.019 sitting basically defenseless, just 70 miles 00:05:43.019 --> 00:05:46.319 across the water from Iran. Recently, the UAE 00:05:46.319 --> 00:05:49.860 purchased $2 billion worth of seemingly arbitrary 00:05:49.860 --> 00:05:52.439 cryptocurrency, a transaction that financial 00:05:52.439 --> 00:05:54.959 watchers are characterizing as an opaque, massive 00:05:54.959 --> 00:05:58.000 donation to the Trump family's orbit. Two billion 00:05:58.000 --> 00:06:00.660 in crypto, just changing hands before a regional 00:06:00.660 --> 00:06:03.000 war kicks off. And don't forget Qatar. They're 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:05.800 just 120 miles from Iran and reportedly gifted 00:06:05.800 --> 00:06:09.079 Donald Trump a $400 million gilded airplane. 00:06:09.620 --> 00:06:11.860 It really forces you to ask the provocative question, 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:15.519 did these extremely wealthy, militarily vulnerable 00:06:15.519 --> 00:06:18.420 Gulf nations essentially rent the United States 00:06:18.420 --> 00:06:20.879 armed forces to permanently wipe out their biggest 00:06:20.879 --> 00:06:22.800 regional rival? Well, whether it was rented or 00:06:22.800 --> 00:06:25.100 not, the global domino effect is already in motion. 00:06:25.370 --> 00:06:27.850 And it is severe. The maritime tracking data 00:06:27.850 --> 00:06:30.050 shows that Iran has functionally closed the Strait 00:06:30.050 --> 00:06:32.610 of Hormuz. For anyone unfamiliar with the geography 00:06:32.610 --> 00:06:35.189 there, one fifth of the entire world's liquid 00:06:35.189 --> 00:06:37.649 gas and oil flows through that specific narrow 00:06:37.649 --> 00:06:40.769 bottleneck. One fifth. That is catastrophic for 00:06:40.769 --> 00:06:43.689 the global supply chain. It is a functional chokehold. 00:06:44.050 --> 00:06:46.269 Choking off that much supply doesn't just raise 00:06:46.269 --> 00:06:49.149 gas prices. It ripples through manufacturing, 00:06:49.350 --> 00:06:52.699 shipping. agriculture. The economic models are 00:06:52.699 --> 00:06:55.879 flashing red for massive global inflation, a 00:06:55.879 --> 00:06:58.860 potential severe recession, and a cratering stock 00:06:58.860 --> 00:07:01.600 market. And that is just the economic side. Right. 00:07:01.779 --> 00:07:03.959 On the military logistics side, the U .S. is 00:07:03.959 --> 00:07:06.759 currently burning through highly advanced Raytheon 00:07:06.759 --> 00:07:09.399 and Lockheed Martin missiles at a furious rate. 00:07:09.819 --> 00:07:12.019 Every missile dropped on Tehran is a missile 00:07:12.019 --> 00:07:14.920 that is actively being starved from Ukraine's 00:07:14.920 --> 00:07:17.379 defense efforts. While at the exact same time, 00:07:17.420 --> 00:07:19.689 Iran is hoarding all its own weapons for fence, 00:07:19.949 --> 00:07:22.189 so they've completely cut off their supply chain 00:07:22.189 --> 00:07:24.910 to Russia. It's this massive reshuffling of global 00:07:24.910 --> 00:07:27.069 firepower. Exactly. And the historians we're 00:07:27.069 --> 00:07:29.689 reading offer a very stark warning about this 00:07:29.689 --> 00:07:33.120 exact dynamic. World War II didn't begin as one 00:07:33.120 --> 00:07:35.759 massive coordinated global war. It started as 00:07:35.759 --> 00:07:38.279 a series of overlapping regional conflicts that 00:07:38.279 --> 00:07:40.399 eventually bled into one another. When you look 00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:43.000 at Israel, Ukraine and now Iran, the overlapping 00:07:43.000 --> 00:07:45.620 conflicts we're seeing today strongly resemble 00:07:45.620 --> 00:07:48.800 that kind of global powder keg. It is incredibly 00:07:48.800 --> 00:07:51.439 tense. Before we move off foreign policy, I have 00:07:51.439 --> 00:07:53.660 to share this wild side note about Cuba from 00:07:53.660 --> 00:07:55.899 the sources because it perfectly illustrates 00:07:55.899 --> 00:07:59.439 the bizarre transactional nature of current diplomacy. 00:08:00.359 --> 00:08:04.100 Yes. The administration is apparently trying 00:08:04.100 --> 00:08:07.699 to starve the Cuban regime into a friendly takeover. 00:08:08.399 --> 00:08:10.839 Because Venezuelan oil is cut off, the Cuban 00:08:10.839 --> 00:08:13.500 government literally doesn't have the fuel to 00:08:13.500 --> 00:08:16.199 distribute basic humanitarian aid on the island. 00:08:16.639 --> 00:08:18.740 So what is the U .S. strategy to get the Cuban 00:08:18.740 --> 00:08:21.540 leaders to peacefully step down? allegedly offering 00:08:21.540 --> 00:08:23.819 them discount rates on luxury condos at Trump 00:08:23.819 --> 00:08:26.079 Towers in Florida. It sounds exactly like a real 00:08:26.079 --> 00:08:28.040 estate pitch masquerading as foreign policy. 00:08:28.279 --> 00:08:30.620 Exactly. Star of the country. But hey, enjoy 00:08:30.620 --> 00:08:33.080 a nice condo in Sunny Isles. It's surreal. But 00:08:33.080 --> 00:08:34.600 it actually feeds perfectly into the broader 00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:36.659 sense of instability we're seeing domestically. 00:08:37.139 --> 00:08:39.519 We have this massive geopolitical crisis, but 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:42.460 things at home feel just as chaotic. And to make 00:08:42.460 --> 00:08:44.740 sense of it, a major financial risk management 00:08:44.740 --> 00:08:47.399 firm called Hedge Eye has been utilizing a historical 00:08:47.399 --> 00:08:49.879 framework known as the fourth turning. The fourth 00:08:49.879 --> 00:08:52.480 turning is a really compelling lens to view all 00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:55.299 of this through. It's a generational theory suggesting 00:08:55.299 --> 00:08:58.740 that modern history moves in predictable 80 to 00:08:58.740 --> 00:09:01.919 100 year cycles. Think of it like seasons of 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:04.840 a century. You have a high, an awakening, an 00:09:04.840 --> 00:09:07.419 unraveling, and finally you hit the winter of 00:09:07.419 --> 00:09:10.139 the cycle, a crisis phase, which is the fourth 00:09:10.139 --> 00:09:12.379 turning. And we are in winter right now. According 00:09:12.379 --> 00:09:14.799 to this model, we have firmly entered the crisis 00:09:14.799 --> 00:09:16.919 phase, which is projected to reach its absolute 00:09:16.919 --> 00:09:20.340 peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Okay, 00:09:20.419 --> 00:09:22.740 so I know some people hear 100 -year cycles and 00:09:22.740 --> 00:09:25.019 think it sounds a bit like astrology for history. 00:09:25.600 --> 00:09:27.779 How does a crisis phase actually manifest in 00:09:27.779 --> 00:09:30.440 real life right now? It manifests as a complete 00:09:30.440 --> 00:09:33.279 collapse of institutional trust. During a fourth 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:35.700 turning, the fundamental institutions of a society, 00:09:35.960 --> 00:09:38.620 government, finance, academia are essentially 00:09:38.620 --> 00:09:41.500 put on trial by the public. Systemic corruption 00:09:41.500 --> 00:09:44.379 and what we call elite impunity are suddenly 00:09:44.379 --> 00:09:47.220 dragged into the light. People look around and 00:09:47.220 --> 00:09:49.360 realize the rules just don't apply to the people 00:09:49.360 --> 00:09:51.299 in charge. And we are seeing that everywhere. 00:09:51.759 --> 00:09:54.240 Everywhere. You have the unsealing of the Epstein 00:09:54.240 --> 00:09:57.019 files implicating massive untouchable figures 00:09:57.019 --> 00:09:59.399 from Bill Gates to former Harvard president Larry 00:09:59.399 --> 00:10:02.279 Summers. You have unprecedented market manipulation 00:10:02.279 --> 00:10:04.960 lawsuits finally hitting elite Wall Street firms 00:10:04.960 --> 00:10:08.039 like Jane Street Capital. The old order is cracking 00:10:08.039 --> 00:10:10.799 because the rot is finally visible to everyone. 00:10:11.039 --> 00:10:13.799 If you want the ultimate, Jaw -dropping example 00:10:13.799 --> 00:10:16.120 of that elite impunity happening right now. You 00:10:16.120 --> 00:10:18.000 have to look at the Department of Homeland Security. 00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:21.279 This detail from the sources is almost hard to 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:24.860 believe. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is reportedly 00:10:24.860 --> 00:10:27.440 using taxpayer deportation funds to purchase 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:32.159 a $70 million Boeing 737 MAX 8 luxury jet for 00:10:32.159 --> 00:10:34.399 her own travel. It really is Marie Antoinette 00:10:34.399 --> 00:10:36.940 levels of disconnect. It is. The specs on this 00:10:36.940 --> 00:10:39.399 plane are insane. It holds just 18 passengers. 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:41.919 It has a fully equipped gourmet kitchen, a full 00:10:41.919 --> 00:10:44.679 bar, flat screen TVs, private showers, and a 00:10:44.679 --> 00:10:46.740 koozie queen size bedroom because apparently 00:10:46.740 --> 00:10:49.409 she gets tired traveling with her advisor. The 00:10:49.409 --> 00:10:51.950 interior was done by the renowned luxury designer, 00:10:52.309 --> 00:10:55.450 Peter Marino. She literally just flew this $70 00:10:55.450 --> 00:10:58.649 million jet to Tel Aviv and was reportedly handing 00:10:58.649 --> 00:11:01.669 out glossy brochures to the passengers boasting 00:11:01.669 --> 00:11:04.620 that no expense has been spared. Meanwhile, the 00:11:04.620 --> 00:11:06.720 official defense from the DHS is trying to claim 00:11:06.720 --> 00:11:09.340 that this luxury flying palace somehow operates 00:11:09.340 --> 00:11:12.860 40 % cheaper than a military aircraft for deportation 00:11:12.860 --> 00:11:15.059 flights. And while executive branch officials 00:11:15.059 --> 00:11:17.679 are flying around in Peter Marino designed jets, 00:11:18.139 --> 00:11:21.220 the actual legislative branch is completely paralyzed. 00:11:21.740 --> 00:11:24.679 Congress is effectively broken. The DHS is currently 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:27.019 in a state of partial shutdown due to a lack 00:11:27.019 --> 00:11:29.740 of funding, but lawmakers are completely ignoring 00:11:29.740 --> 00:11:31.879 it because they are entirely consumed by the 00:11:31.879 --> 00:11:35.190 new war in Iran. We are also watching a massive 00:11:35.190 --> 00:11:37.570 voter and political revolt play out in the form 00:11:37.570 --> 00:11:40.250 of congressional retirements. Right now, a record 00:11:40.250 --> 00:11:42.509 52 House members have already announced they 00:11:42.509 --> 00:11:46.009 are leaving office. That is a mass exodus. It 00:11:46.009 --> 00:11:48.470 is. The underlying data shows it's driven by 00:11:48.470 --> 00:11:51.450 a potent mix of factors. Advanced age, career 00:11:51.450 --> 00:11:53.850 gridlock from crossing the Trump base, or simply 00:11:53.850 --> 00:11:56.149 abandoning a sinking ship to seek other, more 00:11:56.149 --> 00:11:58.549 functional offices. The system is seizing up, 00:11:58.570 --> 00:12:00.509 and the people running it are just walking away. 00:12:00.809 --> 00:12:02.809 Which perfectly explains why everyday Americans 00:12:02.809 --> 00:12:05.570 are so hungry for a massive structural reset. 00:12:06.049 --> 00:12:09.269 There is fascinating data from VeriCite, a major 00:12:09.269 --> 00:12:11.950 data analytics firm that pulled Americans on 00:12:11.950 --> 00:12:15.000 major constitutional changes. The appetite for 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.419 ripping up the floorboards is huge. Right now, 00:12:17.460 --> 00:12:19.860 there's a plus 32 net support for implementing 00:12:19.860 --> 00:12:22.539 an 18 -year term limit for Supreme Court justices. 00:12:22.659 --> 00:12:25.419 That's a massive margin. It really is. There 00:12:25.419 --> 00:12:29.740 is also incredibly broad bipartisan support for 00:12:29.740 --> 00:12:32.059 strictly limiting the presidential pardon power. 00:12:32.519 --> 00:12:34.740 You can literally feel the public wanting to 00:12:34.740 --> 00:12:37.019 rewrite the fundamental rules of the game. We 00:12:37.019 --> 00:12:38.779 are actually going to see this unraveling play 00:12:38.779 --> 00:12:41.220 out in real time with tomorrow's primary elections 00:12:41.220 --> 00:12:44.139 on March 3rd. Texas is the perfect microcosm 00:12:44.139 --> 00:12:47.100 for this. In both parties, you are seeing a fierce 00:12:47.100 --> 00:12:49.480 existential battle between ideological extremes 00:12:49.480 --> 00:12:51.799 and establishment moderates. On the Democratic 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:54.259 side, you have Jasmine Crockett. She has a firebrand 00:12:54.259 --> 00:12:57.080 running a pure base only strategy. She has a 00:12:57.080 --> 00:12:59.340 well -documented history of highly controversial 00:12:59.340 --> 00:13:02.039 incendiary statements, like previously referring 00:13:02.039 --> 00:13:05.559 to ICE as slave patrols. And she is running directly 00:13:05.559 --> 00:13:09.429 against who is a moderate, literally studying 00:13:09.429 --> 00:13:12.490 at a seminary to become a minister. It's a massive 00:13:12.490 --> 00:13:15.129 clash of political tones. The Republican side 00:13:15.129 --> 00:13:17.990 in Texas might be even wilder as a stress test 00:13:17.990 --> 00:13:20.850 for the fourth turning. You have incumbent Senator 00:13:20.850 --> 00:13:24.009 John Cornyn, who is basically your standard establishment 00:13:24.009 --> 00:13:26.570 Republican, backed by something like 90 million 00:13:26.570 --> 00:13:29.289 dollars in national funding. He is facing off 00:13:29.289 --> 00:13:31.309 against Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, 00:13:31.690 --> 00:13:34.070 who is leaning entirely into the MayGA brand. 00:13:34.529 --> 00:13:37.289 But Paxton's history of scandals is staggering. 00:13:37.529 --> 00:13:39.529 To put it mildly. He was indicted for securities 00:13:39.529 --> 00:13:42.370 fraud, investigated by the FBI for bribery, and 00:13:42.370 --> 00:13:45.409 actually survived a 2023 impeachment by his own 00:13:45.409 --> 00:13:47.590 Republican colleagues in the Texas House for 00:13:47.590 --> 00:13:49.429 sweeping corruption. Now, he's being accused 00:13:49.429 --> 00:13:51.070 of mortgage fraud for claiming three different 00:13:51.070 --> 00:13:56.399 homes as his primary residence. Do voters actually 00:13:56.399 --> 00:13:59.000 care about institutional integrity and corruption, 00:13:59.080 --> 00:14:01.440 or does partisan loyalty override everything 00:14:01.440 --> 00:14:04.360 else? And this generational ideological battle 00:14:04.360 --> 00:14:07.279 isn't just in Texas. Look at North Carolina's 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:09.720 fourth congressional district. You have the 69 00:14:09.720 --> 00:14:12.120 -year -old incumbent, Valerie Foushee, facing 00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:15.000 a remarkably fierce primary challenge from 32 00:14:15.000 --> 00:14:18.059 -year -old Nita Allam. It is a very clear reflection 00:14:18.059 --> 00:14:20.039 of a younger generation looking at the older 00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:22.259 establishment and trying to forcefully take the 00:14:22.259 --> 00:14:27.659 reins. part of this entire deep dive. This crisis 00:14:27.659 --> 00:14:29.700 phase, this fourth turning, isn't just reshaping 00:14:29.700 --> 00:14:32.200 our politics and starting regional wars. The 00:14:32.200 --> 00:14:35.340 anxiety of this era is completely rewriting how 00:14:35.340 --> 00:14:38.279 we live, how we cope, and specifically how we 00:14:38.279 --> 00:14:40.580 consume. Yes, the cultural shift. Look at the 00:14:40.580 --> 00:14:42.879 alcohol industry. It is experiencing a massive 00:14:42.879 --> 00:14:45.340 structural shock. According to Hedgeye's financial 00:14:45.340 --> 00:14:48.120 data, Diageo, the absolute behemoth behind brands 00:14:48.120 --> 00:14:50.139 like Johnnie Walker and Guinness, just had to 00:14:50.139 --> 00:14:52.700 slash its dividend. Heineken is globally cutting 00:14:52.700 --> 00:14:55.769 6 ,000 jobs. The demographic data behind those 00:14:55.769 --> 00:14:58.649 financial losses is absolutely stunning. If you 00:14:58.649 --> 00:15:00.990 look at consumer behavior trackers, specifically 00:15:00.990 --> 00:15:04.330 Cercana's annual report, Generation Z makes up 00:15:04.330 --> 00:15:08.190 only 4 % of all U .S. alcohol consumers. 4%. 00:15:08.190 --> 00:15:10.110 I mean, that is essentially a rounding error 00:15:10.110 --> 00:15:12.750 for an industry that massive. Exactly. Compare 00:15:12.750 --> 00:15:16.750 that 4 % to millennials who are at 25%. Gen X 00:15:16.750 --> 00:15:19.870 is at 34%. And boomers are keeping the industry 00:15:19.870 --> 00:15:23.509 afloat at 36%. Gen Z is fundamentally abandoning 00:15:23.340 --> 00:15:26.419 traditional alcohol, opting instead for substitutes 00:15:26.419 --> 00:15:29.179 like cannabis and THC -infused beverages. Okay, 00:15:29.419 --> 00:15:32.460 here's what I find so fascinating. Why is an 00:15:32.460 --> 00:15:36.600 entire generation just ditching booze? The research 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:38.879 points directly to the health data revolution. 00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:41.720 We are living in the era of wearables. People 00:15:41.720 --> 00:15:44.159 have Apple watches, Aura rings, woob straps. 00:15:44.639 --> 00:15:47.039 These devices are exposing the physiological 00:15:47.039 --> 00:15:50.159 cost of alcohol in real time. It's hard to ignore 00:15:50.159 --> 00:15:52.100 the data when it's strapped right to your wrist. 00:15:52.379 --> 00:15:53.700 Right. You have a couple of drinks, you wake 00:15:53.700 --> 00:15:55.740 up the next morning, and your app is basically 00:15:55.740 --> 00:15:58.259 yelling at you. It shows you exactly how your 00:15:58.259 --> 00:16:01.279 REM sleep was entirely suppressed, your cortisol 00:16:01.279 --> 00:16:03.600 level spiked, and your heart rate variability, 00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:06.220 your body's ability to recover is completely 00:16:06.220 --> 00:16:09.080 wrecked. The biological illusion of the harmless 00:16:09.080 --> 00:16:12.090 night out is just... gone. And that granular 00:16:12.090 --> 00:16:14.809 data is actively shifting the broader cultural 00:16:14.809 --> 00:16:18.309 narrative. A recent Gallup poll found that 53 00:16:18.309 --> 00:16:21.850 % of all Americans now believe that even moderate 00:16:21.850 --> 00:16:25.049 drinking is bad for your health. That is a massive 00:16:25.049 --> 00:16:27.590 cultural shift. It's a significant jump from 00:16:27.590 --> 00:16:31.549 just 45 % a couple of years ago in 2024. The 00:16:31.549 --> 00:16:33.690 massive alcohol conglomerates see the writing 00:16:33.690 --> 00:16:35.750 on the wall and are attempting a desperate pivot. 00:16:35.950 --> 00:16:38.129 They have to. And Heuser -Busch is currently 00:16:38.129 --> 00:16:40.429 pouring enormous marketing dollars into their 00:16:40.429 --> 00:16:43.070 non -alcoholic beer, Coronacero, pushing it heavily 00:16:43.070 --> 00:16:45.690 as a worldwide partner for the upcoming 2026 00:16:45.690 --> 00:16:47.909 Winter Olympics. But the financial analysts are 00:16:47.909 --> 00:16:49.769 saying this pivot isn't going to save them, right? 00:16:49.889 --> 00:16:52.070 It's just a band -aid. It's a band -aid on a 00:16:52.070 --> 00:16:54.799 structural wound. Hedgeye's analysts point out 00:16:54.799 --> 00:16:57.159 that non -alcoholic beer is still the absolute 00:16:57.159 --> 00:16:59.799 smallest subcategory in the entire beverage industry. 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:02.580 More importantly, the economics of consumption 00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:04.980 are totally different. The volume per occasion 00:17:04.980 --> 00:17:07.960 is much lower. People might drink six regular 00:17:07.960 --> 00:17:10.299 beers at a party over a few hours. They simply 00:17:10.299 --> 00:17:12.660 do not sit down and drink six non -alcoholic 00:17:12.660 --> 00:17:15.259 beers in one sitting. The industry is facing 00:17:15.259 --> 00:17:18.579 a permanent structural decline. They cannot just 00:17:18.579 --> 00:17:21.180 wait out this dry spell and pray that Gen Z eventually 00:17:21.180 --> 00:17:24.250 ages into heavy drinking. The behavioral paradigm 00:17:24.250 --> 00:17:27.089 has shifted for good. It's incredible how it 00:17:27.089 --> 00:17:29.309 all ties back together. You have a geopolitical 00:17:29.309 --> 00:17:32.369 powder keg threatening the global economy, absurd 00:17:32.369 --> 00:17:34.470 domestic corruption with 70 million dollar jets 00:17:34.470 --> 00:17:37.369 while Congress seizes up, and shifting demographics 00:17:37.369 --> 00:17:39.569 that are totally rewriting our cultural habits. 00:17:40.250 --> 00:17:42.089 It all points back to that fourth turning concept. 00:17:42.349 --> 00:17:44.329 We're living through a societal forest fire. 00:17:44.769 --> 00:17:46.730 The deadwood of the old institutions, the old 00:17:46.730 --> 00:17:48.650 political playbooks, even the old social habits 00:17:48.650 --> 00:17:51.319 are all burning away. And to leave you with a 00:17:51.319 --> 00:17:54.339 final, highly provocative thought on that exact 00:17:54.339 --> 00:17:56.960 concept of the old rules burning down, let's 00:17:56.960 --> 00:17:59.500 look at one last, easily overlooked detail from 00:17:59.500 --> 00:18:02.000 our research today. It notes that former President 00:18:02.000 --> 00:18:04.539 Bill Clinton recently testified before Congressman 00:18:04.539 --> 00:18:06.900 James Comer's committee regarding the Epstein 00:18:06.900 --> 00:18:10.569 files. On the surface, the media largely treated 00:18:10.569 --> 00:18:12.869 this as a fizzled political stunt because Clinton 00:18:12.869 --> 00:18:15.589 didn't reveal any earth -shattering new information. 00:18:15.710 --> 00:18:17.529 Right, it barely made a blip in the news cycle 00:18:17.529 --> 00:18:19.529 compared to everything else going on. But look 00:18:19.529 --> 00:18:22.190 deeper through the lens of a forth -turning institutional 00:18:22.190 --> 00:18:25.900 reset. A massive historic new precedent was just 00:18:25.900 --> 00:18:28.380 established right under our noses. Congress has 00:18:28.380 --> 00:18:30.160 successfully proven that it can force a former 00:18:30.160 --> 00:18:32.500 president and first lady to testify under oath 00:18:32.500 --> 00:18:35.339 before a hostile partisan committee. I want you 00:18:35.339 --> 00:18:38.119 to really ponder the strategic implications of 00:18:38.119 --> 00:18:41.319 that. If the old rules of political decorum and 00:18:41.319 --> 00:18:44.299 institutional respect are truly gone, what happens 00:18:44.299 --> 00:18:46.839 when this exact same precedent is inherited by 00:18:46.839 --> 00:18:49.519 the next regime? Imagine a future Democratic 00:18:49.519 --> 00:18:52.710 committee chair in 2029 using this very same 00:18:52.710 --> 00:18:55.829 tool to legally subpoena Donald or Melania Trump 00:18:55.829 --> 00:18:58.529 to testify under oath about their own associates 00:18:58.529 --> 00:19:01.369 and financial dealings. The partisan weapons 00:19:01.369 --> 00:19:03.509 that are being forged today to settle immediate 00:19:03.509 --> 00:19:05.910 scores might just be the exact instruments that 00:19:05.910 --> 00:19:08.009 completely tear down whatever remains of the 00:19:08.009 --> 00:19:10.569 old political order tomorrow. Wow. If the old 00:19:10.569 --> 00:19:13.150 rules are gone, nobody is safe from the new ones. 00:19:13.609 --> 00:19:15.309 It is a brilliant and chilling thought to end 00:19:15.309 --> 00:19:17.359 on. Thank you so much for joining us on this 00:19:17.359 --> 00:19:19.460 deep dive. Keep your eyes open, look for where 00:19:19.460 --> 00:19:21.099 the paradigms are shifting in your own life, 00:19:21.319 --> 00:19:23.039 and most importantly, keep questioning the narratives 00:19:23.039 --> 00:19:24.920 around you. We will catch you next time.