Welcome to the Deep Dive. It is Monday, March
2, 2026. And if you've been looking at the headlines
lately and feeling like the entire world is just
vibrating at this frequency of pure chaos, you
are definitely not alone. No, you're really not.
Yeah. So we've got this massive stack of current
political analysis, geopolitical updates, and
some really fascinating financial and cultural
research to get through today. And the mission
is simple. We're going to unpack all of this,
connect the dots and try to figure out exactly
why the ground feels like it's shifting under
our feet right now because we're jumping from
a brand new explosive war in the Middle East
to government funds buying luxury deportation
jets to a sudden massive collapse in the alcohol
industry. And believe it or not, it is all connected
by a predictable 100 year historical cycle. But
before we jump into any of that, I do need to
take a very quick second to speak directly to
you, our listener, because the materials we are
unpacking today contain highly charged political
content. And it spans across both left -wing
and right -wing perspectives. So I want to make
it crystal clear right out of the gate, we are
not taking sides. Right. Absolutely not. We are
not endorsing any of the political viewpoints,
the military actions, or the domestic policies
that we're going to discuss today. Our job here
is strictly to act as your impartial guides.
We are just conveying the factual claims, the
raw data, and the ideas exactly as they're presented
in the original source materials. Exactly. We're
just the messengers here. And today, I mean,
the message is wild. So let's jump right into
the geopolitical earthquake that happened over
the weekend. The facts on the ground are just
staggering. According to the overnight reporting
from our sources, 86 year old Iranian Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been confirmed.
Dead. Yeah, his body was recovered from the rubble
of a government building. Right. And it is entirely
clear that the United States provided the firepower
for this. The Trump administration is officially
calling it Operation Epic Fury. The messaging
coming out of the administration regarding Operation
Epic Fury is really what requires a closer look
here. If you watch the eight minute speech President
Trump delivered to the nation to explain the
attack, the geopolitical analysts were following.
point out some massive glaring contradictions.
In that very speech, the president repeated a
claim that the U .S. military had already completely
obliterated Iran's nuclear capacity nine months
ago. But then literally sentences later, he stated
that the primary justification for this new massive
bombing campaign is to prevent Iran from developing
a nuclear weapon. Right. It's this weird logical
loop. It's like, well, we destroyed it, but we
have to bomb them to stop them from building
the thing we already did. destroyed. Precisely.
And the scale of this is shifting rapidly. With
the recent intervention in Venezuela, the administration
pitched it to the public as a very surgical in
and out quick strike. But with Iran, the Pentagon
is already publicly promising at least a full
week of continuous bombing, which is huge. It's
a massive signal to the international community.
This is not a targeted drone strike. It is a
substantial, potentially prolonged military commitment,
which brings up a really fascinating historical
problem, which is how does a modern president
actually sell a war to the public? One of the
historians in our stack, Professor Z, gave this
brilliant lecture breaking down the four recurrent
arguments administrations have used over the
last 150 years. And it really puts today into
perspective. It's a great framework. It really
is. So the first bucket is economics. Think of
the Spanish -American War, where the pitch was
all about protecting global trade routes. Then
the second is making America safer. which historically
meant seizing islands to build naval coaling
stations for strategic dominance. Right, the
old Mahanism strategy. Exactly, Mahanism. Then
the third argument is rescuing the less fortunate.
This is that classic, very outdated white man's
birding concept of going in to save a population
from themselves. And finally, the fourth argument
is fighting evil, which usually hinges on highlighting
extreme human rights abuses, like the Spanish
prison camps in Cuba back in the 1890s to justify
military intervention. But when you apply Professor
Z's framework to the present day, the historical
playbook is completely failing. I mean, the administration
tried to run this playbook with the recent Venezuela
invasion. They leaned heavily on the making of
America safer argument by explicitly tying the
Venezuelan regime to the U .S. fentanyl crisis.
But the public just didn't buy it. The polling
data showed they flat out didn't buy the connection.
And the PR campaign was incredibly rushed. To
put it in perspective for you, the Bush administration
spent 18 months meticulous selling the Iraq war
to the public, setting up narratives, going to
the UN, building a massive coalition. With Iran,
there is no concrete narrative being articulated
beyond general statements about terrorism. And
the most crucial missing piece is that Iran didn't
actually attack the United States first. You
have an American public that is already exhausted
by forever wars, which, by the way, is exactly
what this administration campaigned on ending.
So if the traditional playbook isn't working
and the state of reasons are full of contradictions,
What is really going on? This is where the financial
tracking gets absolutely jaw -dropping. The suggestion
here from the sources is that we need to follow
the money. and it paints a picture of the U .S.
military potentially acting as regional mercenaries.
The transactional timeline is certainly raising
major alarms among financial and intelligence
analysts. You have Saudi Arabia, which views
Iran as an existential mortal enemy, having previously
injected a $2 billion investment fund directly
into Jared Kushner's firm. $2 billion. Yes. Then
you look at the United Arab Emirates. They are
sitting basically defenseless, just 70 miles
across the water from Iran. Recently, the UAE
purchased $2 billion worth of seemingly arbitrary
cryptocurrency, a transaction that financial
watchers are characterizing as an opaque, massive
donation to the Trump family's orbit. Two billion
in crypto, just changing hands before a regional
war kicks off. And don't forget Qatar. They're
just 120 miles from Iran and reportedly gifted
Donald Trump a $400 million gilded airplane.
It really forces you to ask the provocative question,
did these extremely wealthy, militarily vulnerable
Gulf nations essentially rent the United States
armed forces to permanently wipe out their biggest
regional rival? Well, whether it was rented or
not, the global domino effect is already in motion.
And it is severe. The maritime tracking data
shows that Iran has functionally closed the Strait
of Hormuz. For anyone unfamiliar with the geography
there, one fifth of the entire world's liquid
gas and oil flows through that specific narrow
bottleneck. One fifth. That is catastrophic for
the global supply chain. It is a functional chokehold.
Choking off that much supply doesn't just raise
gas prices. It ripples through manufacturing,
shipping. agriculture. The economic models are
flashing red for massive global inflation, a
potential severe recession, and a cratering stock
market. And that is just the economic side. Right.
On the military logistics side, the U .S. is
currently burning through highly advanced Raytheon
and Lockheed Martin missiles at a furious rate.
Every missile dropped on Tehran is a missile
that is actively being starved from Ukraine's
defense efforts. While at the exact same time,
Iran is hoarding all its own weapons for fence,
so they've completely cut off their supply chain
to Russia. It's this massive reshuffling of global
firepower. Exactly. And the historians we're
reading offer a very stark warning about this
exact dynamic. World War II didn't begin as one
massive coordinated global war. It started as
a series of overlapping regional conflicts that
eventually bled into one another. When you look
at Israel, Ukraine and now Iran, the overlapping
conflicts we're seeing today strongly resemble
that kind of global powder keg. It is incredibly
tense. Before we move off foreign policy, I have
to share this wild side note about Cuba from
the sources because it perfectly illustrates
the bizarre transactional nature of current diplomacy.
Yes. The administration is apparently trying
to starve the Cuban regime into a friendly takeover.
Because Venezuelan oil is cut off, the Cuban
government literally doesn't have the fuel to
distribute basic humanitarian aid on the island.
So what is the U .S. strategy to get the Cuban
leaders to peacefully step down? allegedly offering
them discount rates on luxury condos at Trump
Towers in Florida. It sounds exactly like a real
estate pitch masquerading as foreign policy.
Exactly. Star of the country. But hey, enjoy
a nice condo in Sunny Isles. It's surreal. But
it actually feeds perfectly into the broader
sense of instability we're seeing domestically.
We have this massive geopolitical crisis, but
things at home feel just as chaotic. And to make
sense of it, a major financial risk management
firm called Hedge Eye has been utilizing a historical
framework known as the fourth turning. The fourth
turning is a really compelling lens to view all
of this through. It's a generational theory suggesting
that modern history moves in predictable 80 to
100 year cycles. Think of it like seasons of
a century. You have a high, an awakening, an
unraveling, and finally you hit the winter of
the cycle, a crisis phase, which is the fourth
turning. And we are in winter right now. According
to this model, we have firmly entered the crisis
phase, which is projected to reach its absolute
peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Okay,
so I know some people hear 100 -year cycles and
think it sounds a bit like astrology for history.
How does a crisis phase actually manifest in
real life right now? It manifests as a complete
collapse of institutional trust. During a fourth
turning, the fundamental institutions of a society,
government, finance, academia are essentially
put on trial by the public. Systemic corruption
and what we call elite impunity are suddenly
dragged into the light. People look around and
realize the rules just don't apply to the people
in charge. And we are seeing that everywhere.
Everywhere. You have the unsealing of the Epstein
files implicating massive untouchable figures
from Bill Gates to former Harvard president Larry
Summers. You have unprecedented market manipulation
lawsuits finally hitting elite Wall Street firms
like Jane Street Capital. The old order is cracking
because the rot is finally visible to everyone.
If you want the ultimate, Jaw -dropping example
of that elite impunity happening right now. You
have to look at the Department of Homeland Security.
This detail from the sources is almost hard to
believe. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is reportedly
using taxpayer deportation funds to purchase
a $70 million Boeing 737 MAX 8 luxury jet for
her own travel. It really is Marie Antoinette
levels of disconnect. It is. The specs on this
plane are insane. It holds just 18 passengers.
It has a fully equipped gourmet kitchen, a full
bar, flat screen TVs, private showers, and a
koozie queen size bedroom because apparently
she gets tired traveling with her advisor. The
interior was done by the renowned luxury designer,
Peter Marino. She literally just flew this $70
million jet to Tel Aviv and was reportedly handing
out glossy brochures to the passengers boasting
that no expense has been spared. Meanwhile, the
official defense from the DHS is trying to claim
that this luxury flying palace somehow operates
40 % cheaper than a military aircraft for deportation
flights. And while executive branch officials
are flying around in Peter Marino designed jets,
the actual legislative branch is completely paralyzed.
Congress is effectively broken. The DHS is currently
in a state of partial shutdown due to a lack
of funding, but lawmakers are completely ignoring
it because they are entirely consumed by the
new war in Iran. We are also watching a massive
voter and political revolt play out in the form
of congressional retirements. Right now, a record
52 House members have already announced they
are leaving office. That is a mass exodus. It
is. The underlying data shows it's driven by
a potent mix of factors. Advanced age, career
gridlock from crossing the Trump base, or simply
abandoning a sinking ship to seek other, more
functional offices. The system is seizing up,
and the people running it are just walking away.
Which perfectly explains why everyday Americans
are so hungry for a massive structural reset.
There is fascinating data from VeriCite, a major
data analytics firm that pulled Americans on
major constitutional changes. The appetite for
ripping up the floorboards is huge. Right now,
there's a plus 32 net support for implementing
an 18 -year term limit for Supreme Court justices.
That's a massive margin. It really is. There
is also incredibly broad bipartisan support for
strictly limiting the presidential pardon power.
You can literally feel the public wanting to
rewrite the fundamental rules of the game. We
are actually going to see this unraveling play
out in real time with tomorrow's primary elections
on March 3rd. Texas is the perfect microcosm
for this. In both parties, you are seeing a fierce
existential battle between ideological extremes
and establishment moderates. On the Democratic
side, you have Jasmine Crockett. She has a firebrand
running a pure base only strategy. She has a
well -documented history of highly controversial
incendiary statements, like previously referring
to ICE as slave patrols. And she is running directly
against who is a moderate, literally studying
at a seminary to become a minister. It's a massive
clash of political tones. The Republican side
in Texas might be even wilder as a stress test
for the fourth turning. You have incumbent Senator
John Cornyn, who is basically your standard establishment
Republican, backed by something like 90 million
dollars in national funding. He is facing off
against Ken Paxton, the state attorney general,
who is leaning entirely into the MayGA brand.
But Paxton's history of scandals is staggering.
To put it mildly. He was indicted for securities
fraud, investigated by the FBI for bribery, and
actually survived a 2023 impeachment by his own
Republican colleagues in the Texas House for
sweeping corruption. Now, he's being accused
of mortgage fraud for claiming three different
homes as his primary residence. Do voters actually
care about institutional integrity and corruption,
or does partisan loyalty override everything
else? And this generational ideological battle
isn't just in Texas. Look at North Carolina's
fourth congressional district. You have the 69
-year -old incumbent, Valerie Foushee, facing
a remarkably fierce primary challenge from 32
-year -old Nita Allam. It is a very clear reflection
of a younger generation looking at the older
establishment and trying to forcefully take the
reins. part of this entire deep dive. This crisis
phase, this fourth turning, isn't just reshaping
our politics and starting regional wars. The
anxiety of this era is completely rewriting how
we live, how we cope, and specifically how we
consume. Yes, the cultural shift. Look at the
alcohol industry. It is experiencing a massive
structural shock. According to Hedgeye's financial
data, Diageo, the absolute behemoth behind brands
like Johnnie Walker and Guinness, just had to
slash its dividend. Heineken is globally cutting
6 ,000 jobs. The demographic data behind those
financial losses is absolutely stunning. If you
look at consumer behavior trackers, specifically
Cercana's annual report, Generation Z makes up
only 4 % of all U .S. alcohol consumers. 4%.
I mean, that is essentially a rounding error
for an industry that massive. Exactly. Compare
that 4 % to millennials who are at 25%. Gen X
is at 34%. And boomers are keeping the industry
afloat at 36%. Gen Z is fundamentally abandoning
traditional alcohol, opting instead for substitutes
like cannabis and THC -infused beverages. Okay,
here's what I find so fascinating. Why is an
entire generation just ditching booze? The research
points directly to the health data revolution.
We are living in the era of wearables. People
have Apple watches, Aura rings, woob straps.
These devices are exposing the physiological
cost of alcohol in real time. It's hard to ignore
the data when it's strapped right to your wrist.
Right. You have a couple of drinks, you wake
up the next morning, and your app is basically
yelling at you. It shows you exactly how your
REM sleep was entirely suppressed, your cortisol
level spiked, and your heart rate variability,
your body's ability to recover is completely
wrecked. The biological illusion of the harmless
night out is just... gone. And that granular
data is actively shifting the broader cultural
narrative. A recent Gallup poll found that 53
% of all Americans now believe that even moderate
drinking is bad for your health. That is a massive
cultural shift. It's a significant jump from
just 45 % a couple of years ago in 2024. The
massive alcohol conglomerates see the writing
on the wall and are attempting a desperate pivot.
They have to. And Heuser -Busch is currently
pouring enormous marketing dollars into their
non -alcoholic beer, Coronacero, pushing it heavily
as a worldwide partner for the upcoming 2026
Winter Olympics. But the financial analysts are
saying this pivot isn't going to save them, right?
It's just a band -aid. It's a band -aid on a
structural wound. Hedgeye's analysts point out
that non -alcoholic beer is still the absolute
smallest subcategory in the entire beverage industry.
More importantly, the economics of consumption
are totally different. The volume per occasion
is much lower. People might drink six regular
beers at a party over a few hours. They simply
do not sit down and drink six non -alcoholic
beers in one sitting. The industry is facing
a permanent structural decline. They cannot just
wait out this dry spell and pray that Gen Z eventually
ages into heavy drinking. The behavioral paradigm
has shifted for good. It's incredible how it
all ties back together. You have a geopolitical
powder keg threatening the global economy, absurd
domestic corruption with 70 million dollar jets
while Congress seizes up, and shifting demographics
that are totally rewriting our cultural habits.
It all points back to that fourth turning concept.
We're living through a societal forest fire.
The deadwood of the old institutions, the old
political playbooks, even the old social habits
are all burning away. And to leave you with a
final, highly provocative thought on that exact
concept of the old rules burning down, let's
look at one last, easily overlooked detail from
our research today. It notes that former President
Bill Clinton recently testified before Congressman
James Comer's committee regarding the Epstein
files. On the surface, the media largely treated
this as a fizzled political stunt because Clinton
didn't reveal any earth -shattering new information.
Right, it barely made a blip in the news cycle
compared to everything else going on. But look
deeper through the lens of a forth -turning institutional
reset. A massive historic new precedent was just
established right under our noses. Congress has
successfully proven that it can force a former
president and first lady to testify under oath
before a hostile partisan committee. I want you
to really ponder the strategic implications of
that. If the old rules of political decorum and
institutional respect are truly gone, what happens
when this exact same precedent is inherited by
the next regime? Imagine a future Democratic
committee chair in 2029 using this very same
tool to legally subpoena Donald or Melania Trump
to testify under oath about their own associates
and financial dealings. The partisan weapons
that are being forged today to settle immediate
scores might just be the exact instruments that
completely tear down whatever remains of the
old political order tomorrow. Wow. If the old
rules are gone, nobody is safe from the new ones.
It is a brilliant and chilling thought to end
on. Thank you so much for joining us on this
deep dive. Keep your eyes open, look for where
the paradigms are shifting in your own life,
and most importantly, keep questioning the narratives
around you. We will catch you next time.