WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.100 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. It is Monday, 00:00:03.259 --> 00:00:08.500 February 23rd, 2026. And I have to say, if you 00:00:08.500 --> 00:00:10.560 were waking up today feeling just a little bit 00:00:10.560 --> 00:00:12.320 of whiplash from the news cycle this weekend, 00:00:12.419 --> 00:00:14.900 you were definitely not alone. It has been a 00:00:14.900 --> 00:00:17.859 lot. A lot is an understatement. Volatile doesn't 00:00:17.859 --> 00:00:20.300 even quite cover it. I mean, we are looking at 00:00:20.300 --> 00:00:22.320 a collision between the executive branch and 00:00:22.320 --> 00:00:24.780 the Supreme Court that we haven't seen in decades. 00:00:25.260 --> 00:00:27.699 Plus a State of the Union address looming tomorrow 00:00:27.699 --> 00:00:31.320 under a very dark cloud and some really fascinating 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:33.719 shifts in political alliances that I don't think 00:00:33.719 --> 00:00:36.740 anyone had on their bingo card for 2026. No, 00:00:36.859 --> 00:00:39.380 definitely not. And our mission today is to really 00:00:39.380 --> 00:00:41.560 cut through that noise. We aren't just reading 00:00:41.560 --> 00:00:43.399 headlines here. We want to understand the actual 00:00:43.399 --> 00:00:45.240 mechanics of what just happened with the trade 00:00:45.240 --> 00:00:47.579 laws last week because it gets technical, sure, 00:00:47.579 --> 00:00:50.280 but it really matters for your wallet. Right. 00:00:50.539 --> 00:00:52.880 We also need to unpack why a specific group of 00:00:52.880 --> 00:00:55.100 moms who, by the way, were some of the president's 00:00:55.100 --> 00:00:57.859 biggest supporters, is suddenly furious at the 00:00:57.859 --> 00:01:00.520 White House. And we need to figure out why American 00:01:00.520 --> 00:01:03.020 Express is suddenly part of a congressional conversation 00:01:03.020 --> 00:01:05.340 about Jeffrey Epstein. It's a heavy stack of 00:01:05.340 --> 00:01:08.579 sources today. We've got legal analysis of a 00:01:08.579 --> 00:01:11.959 massive 6 -3 Supreme Court decision, reporting 00:01:11.959 --> 00:01:14.739 on the preparations for tomorrow's address, updates 00:01:14.739 --> 00:01:17.079 on the MHA movement that's Make America Healthy 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.760 Again, and some concerning geopolitical maps 00:01:19.760 --> 00:01:28.109 regarding Iran. In a 6 -3 decision, the court 00:01:28.109 --> 00:01:30.790 struck down President Trump's use of the International 00:01:30.790 --> 00:01:33.950 Emergency Economic Powers Act. Right, IE EPA. 00:01:34.170 --> 00:01:36.689 Yeah, IE EPA. They struck down his use of it 00:01:36.689 --> 00:01:39.349 to impose indiscriminate tariffs. Now, for the 00:01:39.349 --> 00:01:40.950 listener who isn't a constitutional scholar, 00:01:41.150 --> 00:01:43.430 how big of a deal is this, actually? It is seismic. 00:01:43.609 --> 00:01:46.450 You really have to understand, IEPA was essentially 00:01:46.450 --> 00:01:48.909 the president's magic sharpie for trade wars. 00:01:49.090 --> 00:01:51.069 Magic sharpie? Yeah, it was the tool in the toolbox 00:01:51.069 --> 00:01:53.730 that allowed the executive branch to bypass Congress 00:01:53.730 --> 00:01:56.989 entirely and just levy taxes on imports under 00:01:56.989 --> 00:01:59.849 the guise of a national emergency. Losing that 00:01:59.849 --> 00:02:02.269 is a massive blow to the administration's operating 00:02:02.269 --> 00:02:04.950 style. It removes the ability to just wake up 00:02:04.950 --> 00:02:06.909 and decide to change the economic landscape. 00:02:07.310 --> 00:02:09.590 But what jumped out at me in the sources wasn't 00:02:09.590 --> 00:02:12.469 just that they lost it. But how they lost it, 00:02:12.569 --> 00:02:16.310 it seemed incredibly specific, like middle school 00:02:16.310 --> 00:02:18.870 English teacher specific. It was a grammar lesson, 00:02:19.189 --> 00:02:22.229 a very high stakes grammar lesson. Chief Justice 00:02:22.229 --> 00:02:24.650 Roberts wrote the opinion and he really drilled 00:02:24.650 --> 00:02:27.270 down into statutory interpretation. He focused 00:02:27.270 --> 00:02:30.689 on just two specific words found in the IEPA 00:02:30.689 --> 00:02:34.430 statute. Regulate. and importation. Just those 00:02:34.430 --> 00:02:37.349 two. Just those two words. Roberts argued that 00:02:37.349 --> 00:02:39.330 these words, which, by the way, are separated 00:02:39.330 --> 00:02:42.669 by 16 other words in the text of the law, they 00:02:42.669 --> 00:02:45.030 simply cannot bear the weight of the president's 00:02:45.030 --> 00:02:47.129 assertion. Because Trump was arguing he had the 00:02:47.129 --> 00:02:50.110 independent power to tax imports from any country. 00:02:50.310 --> 00:02:52.469 Right. Any country at any rate for any amount 00:02:52.469 --> 00:02:55.469 of time based solely on those two words. Essentially, 00:02:55.590 --> 00:02:57.310 the court is saying you are reading way too much 00:02:57.310 --> 00:03:00.219 into this one sentence. Exactly. Robbers actually 00:03:00.219 --> 00:03:02.759 called the assertion of power extravagant by 00:03:02.759 --> 00:03:05.039 any measure and the consequences astonishing. 00:03:05.379 --> 00:03:07.520 And we have to remember the constitutional context 00:03:07.520 --> 00:03:09.860 here. Article 1, Section 8. That's the power 00:03:09.860 --> 00:03:12.939 of the purse. Right. The Constitution explicitly 00:03:12.939 --> 00:03:16.000 gives the power to tax and set tariffs to Congress, 00:03:16.219 --> 00:03:20.639 not the president. The logic was that while IEPA 00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:23.259 gives the president tools for emergencies, like, 00:03:23.259 --> 00:03:26.139 say, freezing assets or stopping trade with a 00:03:26.139 --> 00:03:29.379 specific enemy, levying entirely new taxes across 00:03:29.379 --> 00:03:32.340 the board, just isn't one of them unless Congress 00:03:32.340 --> 00:03:35.979 explicitly says so. Now, there was a subplot 00:03:35.979 --> 00:03:38.020 in the legal analysis that seemed to get the 00:03:38.020 --> 00:03:40.400 legal nerds really excited. Something about the 00:03:40.400 --> 00:03:43.000 major questions doctrine. This feels like inside 00:03:43.000 --> 00:03:45.840 baseball, but... The sources made it seem really 00:03:45.840 --> 00:03:48.000 important. Can you break that down? This is fascinating. 00:03:48.060 --> 00:03:49.479 And it's where the politics of the court get 00:03:49.479 --> 00:03:51.879 really interesting. So the major questions doctrine 00:03:51.879 --> 00:03:53.960 is a legal theory the court has used recently. 00:03:54.280 --> 00:03:56.259 Think back to when they struck down student loan 00:03:56.259 --> 00:03:59.000 forgiveness or the OSHA vaccine mandates. Right, 00:03:59.060 --> 00:04:01.080 I remember that. It's basically the court saying, 00:04:01.439 --> 00:04:03.539 if a government agency wants to do something 00:04:03.539 --> 00:04:06.379 with, he tried. He wanted to use this case to 00:04:06.379 --> 00:04:09.090 cement that doctrine further. But. And this is 00:04:09.090 --> 00:04:11.430 the surprise. He didn't get the votes for that 00:04:11.430 --> 00:04:13.830 specific reasoning. Justices Gorsuch and Barrett 00:04:13.830 --> 00:04:16.670 joined him. But the three liberal justices, Kagan, 00:04:16.829 --> 00:04:19.449 Sotomayor, and Jackson, refused. Wait, so the 00:04:19.449 --> 00:04:21.370 liberals agreed that Trump broke the law, but 00:04:21.370 --> 00:04:23.970 they didn't agree on why? Precisely. They concurred 00:04:23.970 --> 00:04:26.889 on the statutory grounds, the grammar part. But 00:04:26.889 --> 00:04:29.509 they completely refused to sign on to an opinion 00:04:29.509 --> 00:04:31.829 that validated the major questions doctrine. 00:04:31.930 --> 00:04:33.889 They didn't want to hand the conservative wing 00:04:33.889 --> 00:04:36.610 a sharper weapon to use against future regulations, 00:04:36.610 --> 00:04:38.860 say, on the environment or health care. That 00:04:38.860 --> 00:04:42.420 is incredibly strategic. Very. So Trump lost. 00:04:42.560 --> 00:04:44.959 But Roberts didn't get to expand his legal theory 00:04:44.959 --> 00:04:47.500 as much as he wanted to. It was a very calculated 00:04:47.500 --> 00:04:50.319 move by the liberal bloc. Talk about 40 chess. 00:04:50.600 --> 00:04:53.360 And speaking of the reaction, I assume the president 00:04:53.360 --> 00:04:56.740 didn't take this well. He did not. Reports indicate 00:04:56.740 --> 00:04:59.160 he lashed out immediately, specifically calling 00:04:59.160 --> 00:05:02.319 his own appointees, Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, 00:05:02.500 --> 00:05:05.160 disloyal. He even claimed the court had been 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:07.879 corrupted by foreign influences. Is there any 00:05:07.879 --> 00:05:10.480 evidence for that in the sources? None whatsoever. 00:05:11.300 --> 00:05:13.139 But here's the thing about that whiplash we mentioned 00:05:13.139 --> 00:05:15.759 at the start. He didn't just accept the ruling 00:05:15.759 --> 00:05:18.459 and move on. He pivoted. Right. The sources mentioned 00:05:18.459 --> 00:05:22.420 a different law, Section 122. Yes. The magic 00:05:22.420 --> 00:05:25.720 Sharpie of IEPA might be gone, but the toolbox 00:05:25.720 --> 00:05:29.259 isn't totally empty. Trump immediately pivoted 00:05:29.259 --> 00:05:33.379 to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He used 00:05:33.379 --> 00:05:37.139 that to impose a new global tariff. First 10%, 00:05:37.139 --> 00:05:40.819 then he upped it to 15 % during a moment of frustration. 00:05:41.339 --> 00:05:43.600 So we are basically back to square one, the tariffs 00:05:43.600 --> 00:05:45.839 are back. Yes and no. This is the gotcha, and 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:47.100 it's why the next few months are going to be 00:05:47.100 --> 00:05:50.160 crazy. Section 122 has a ticking clock attached 00:05:50.160 --> 00:05:52.850 to it. It requires congressional approval if 00:05:52.850 --> 00:05:56.269 the tariffs last longer than 150 days. 150 days. 00:05:56.629 --> 00:05:58.329 Checking the calendar, that puts us right in 00:05:58.329 --> 00:06:00.410 the middle of summer. Correct. And more importantly, 00:06:00.750 --> 00:06:02.790 right in the heat of primary season. So the Supreme 00:06:02.790 --> 00:06:05.310 Court just forced a future battle between the 00:06:05.310 --> 00:06:07.649 president and Congress. The Republicans in Congress 00:06:07.649 --> 00:06:09.949 are essentially letting him have his 150 days 00:06:09.949 --> 00:06:11.709 now because they don't want to fight him today. 00:06:11.949 --> 00:06:14.089 But come summer. Come summer, they will have 00:06:14.089 --> 00:06:16.779 to decide. Do they vote to keep these tariffs, 00:06:16.980 --> 00:06:19.399 which are economically unpopular and raise prices 00:06:19.399 --> 00:06:22.160 for you and me? Or do they vote against them 00:06:22.160 --> 00:06:24.199 and risk the wrath of the president right before 00:06:24.199 --> 00:06:27.839 an election? That sets up an incredibly dramatic 00:06:27.839 --> 00:06:30.259 summer. But let's look at the immediate future. 00:06:30.639 --> 00:06:33.620 Tomorrow, Tuesday, February 24th, is the State 00:06:33.620 --> 00:06:36.069 of the Union. And the context honestly couldn't 00:06:36.069 --> 00:06:38.430 be much worse for the White House. Approval ratings 00:06:38.430 --> 00:06:41.250 are down, the economy is weakening, and he literally 00:06:41.250 --> 00:06:44.470 just lost that primary tariff authority we discussed. 00:06:46.889 --> 00:06:49.490 A bit of a war going on inside the West Wing 00:06:49.490 --> 00:06:52.069 regarding what he should actually say tomorrow. 00:06:52.370 --> 00:06:54.430 There are two very distinct strategies at play 00:06:54.430 --> 00:06:56.750 here. On one side, you have advisors like Suzy 00:06:56.750 --> 00:06:59.250 Wiles. They want him to play it safe, talk about 00:06:59.250 --> 00:07:01.949 401Ks, claim victory on inflation, try to sound 00:07:01.949 --> 00:07:05.029 steady, basically ignore the chaos and act presidential. 00:07:05.269 --> 00:07:07.230 And the other side? The other side is being described 00:07:07.230 --> 00:07:09.939 as the president's id. They want him to rail 00:07:09.939 --> 00:07:12.459 against the Supreme Court, complain about fake 00:07:12.459 --> 00:07:14.639 news and go completely off script. They want 00:07:14.639 --> 00:07:16.600 the rally speech, not the State of the Union. 00:07:17.019 --> 00:07:19.500 And we all know which one makes for better TV, 00:07:20.180 --> 00:07:22.939 but maybe not better governance. But what really 00:07:22.939 --> 00:07:25.259 caught my eye about tomorrow isn't just the speech 00:07:25.259 --> 00:07:28.360 itself, it's the audience, specifically the guest 00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:31.279 list. The Democrats seem to be coordinating a 00:07:31.279 --> 00:07:34.199 very specific message with who they are inviting 00:07:34.199 --> 00:07:37.180 to sit up in the gallery. It is highly coordinated. 00:07:37.500 --> 00:07:39.339 Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is bringing 00:07:39.339 --> 00:07:42.540 Donnie Bensky. Representative Ro Khanna is bringing 00:07:42.540 --> 00:07:45.000 Haley Robson. For listeners who don't immediately 00:07:45.000 --> 00:07:47.600 recognize those names. Both are victims of Jeffrey 00:07:47.600 --> 00:07:50.259 Epstein. Representative Thomas Massey actually 00:07:50.259 --> 00:07:52.399 estimates that there will be 10 to 12 Epstein 00:07:52.399 --> 00:07:55.120 victims present in the gallery tomorrow. It is 00:07:55.120 --> 00:07:57.240 explicitly designed to keep that shadow over 00:07:57.240 --> 00:07:59.240 the administration and the political class in 00:07:59.240 --> 00:08:01.860 general. It basically forces the cameras to pan 00:08:01.860 --> 00:08:04.199 to them. And this connects to some new, really 00:08:04.199 --> 00:08:06.920 disturbing information in our sources about Epstein 00:08:06.920 --> 00:08:09.920 and a major credit card company. I have to admit, 00:08:10.399 --> 00:08:12.680 seeing American Express in this context was a 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:15.259 shock. It is a revelation that really shows the 00:08:15.259 --> 00:08:17.620 actual mechanics of how that trafficking operation 00:08:17.620 --> 00:08:20.579 worked. The sources reveal that American Express 00:08:20.579 --> 00:08:23.600 Travel Services booked hundreds of flights for 00:08:23.600 --> 00:08:26.199 women and girls from Eastern Europe. Places like 00:08:26.199 --> 00:08:29.660 Russia, Poland, Latvia, booked them right to 00:08:29.660 --> 00:08:31.300 Epstein's properties. And this wasn't back in 00:08:31.300 --> 00:08:34.539 the 90s. This was recent. Between 2012 and 2019, 00:08:35.059 --> 00:08:37.799 that is long after Epstein was a known convicted 00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:39.919 sex offender. He was already on the registry. 00:08:40.090 --> 00:08:42.669 That is the part I just don't get. How does a 00:08:42.669 --> 00:08:45.230 major corporation one that flags my card if I 00:08:45.230 --> 00:08:48.200 buy coffee in a different city just process hundreds 00:08:48.200 --> 00:08:50.820 of flights for young women to a sex offender's 00:08:50.820 --> 00:08:53.320 island without flagging it. The detail that explains 00:08:53.320 --> 00:08:56.179 it is the specific card he used. Epstein had 00:08:56.179 --> 00:08:59.279 the Amex Centurion card. The black card. Right. 00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:03.639 Invite only $10 ,000 initiation fee. The implication 00:09:03.639 --> 00:09:05.419 in the reporting is that when you are at that 00:09:05.419 --> 00:09:07.539 level of spending, the scrutiny just disappears. 00:09:08.220 --> 00:09:10.200 The compliance algorithms that watch regular 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:12.559 people just don't apply to the ultra wealthy. 00:09:12.840 --> 00:09:15.659 It bypassed the usual red flags simply because 00:09:15.659 --> 00:09:18.639 he was a whale. Congress going after AMEX, or 00:09:18.639 --> 00:09:21.539 are we going to see the CEO testifying? House 00:09:21.539 --> 00:09:23.799 Oversight Chairman James Comer is taking a different 00:09:23.799 --> 00:09:26.399 angle and sources suggest it might backfire. 00:09:27.000 --> 00:09:29.620 He's focusing on subpoenaing Bill and Hillary 00:09:29.620 --> 00:09:32.399 Clinton rather than hauling in the AMEX executives. 00:09:32.679 --> 00:09:35.179 Which seems like a huge political risk. It is. 00:09:35.440 --> 00:09:37.320 The Clintons have a history of being incredibly 00:09:37.320 --> 00:09:40.600 resilient during testimony. Remember, Bill Clinton's 00:09:40.600 --> 00:09:42.919 popularity actually went up during his impeachment 00:09:42.919 --> 00:09:45.539 proceedings. Focusing on them instead of the 00:09:45.539 --> 00:09:47.840 corporate enablers at American Express might 00:09:47.840 --> 00:09:50.360 look like political theater rather than a genuine 00:09:50.360 --> 00:09:51.889 invention. investigation into the trafficking 00:09:51.889 --> 00:09:53.970 network. Because it allows the company to slide 00:09:53.970 --> 00:09:56.429 out the back door while the politicians fight 00:09:56.429 --> 00:09:59.470 on stage. Exactly. Okay, let's shift gears to 00:09:59.470 --> 00:10:01.230 another headache for the administration. And 00:10:01.230 --> 00:10:03.190 this one is coming from inside the house, so 00:10:03.190 --> 00:10:06.470 to speak. The MAHA movement. Make America healthy 00:10:06.470 --> 00:10:08.990 again. Right. This was that coalition brought 00:10:08.990 --> 00:10:12.230 in by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Mom's concerned about 00:10:12.230 --> 00:10:15.049 food safety, chemicals, chronic disease. They 00:10:15.049 --> 00:10:17.909 were a key part of the voting block. But now, 00:10:18.090 --> 00:10:20.110 the sources say they are absolutely furious. 00:10:20.289 --> 00:10:22.570 They feel completely betrayed. And it centers 00:10:22.570 --> 00:10:26.330 on one specific chemical. Glyphosate. That's 00:10:26.330 --> 00:10:28.870 the active ingredient around them. The weed killer. 00:10:29.149 --> 00:10:31.970 It is. It's the most used weed killer in history. 00:10:32.309 --> 00:10:35.019 We're talking... 300 million pounds a year on 00:10:35.019 --> 00:10:39.059 US crops. The MAHA supporters view it as neurotoxic 00:10:39.059 --> 00:10:42.179 and carcinogenic. They genuinely thought this 00:10:42.179 --> 00:10:44.200 administration would ban it or at least heavily 00:10:44.200 --> 00:10:46.580 reduce it. That was the implied promise. And 00:10:46.580 --> 00:10:48.919 instead, the president did the exact opposite. 00:10:49.049 --> 00:10:51.789 He signed an executive order invoking the Defense 00:10:51.789 --> 00:10:54.470 Production Act to actually spur the production 00:10:54.470 --> 00:10:56.629 of glyphosate. Wait, let's just pause on that 00:10:56.629 --> 00:10:58.370 for a second. He used the Defense Production 00:10:58.370 --> 00:11:00.990 Act, which is usually for wartime supplies like 00:11:00.990 --> 00:11:04.830 steel or masks, to make more weed killer. Yes. 00:11:05.190 --> 00:11:08.159 The justification is twofold. One, to keep food 00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:10.740 costs down for farmers because Roundup ready 00:11:10.740 --> 00:11:12.879 crops are cheaper to grow. But the other reason, 00:11:12.919 --> 00:11:14.679 and this is the official cover story according 00:11:14.679 --> 00:11:16.659 to the sources, is that they need the phosphorus. 00:11:16.840 --> 00:11:19.080 Phosphorus. Phosphorus is a key component of 00:11:19.080 --> 00:11:21.620 glyphosate, but it's also highly used in munitions. 00:11:21.799 --> 00:11:24.919 So the trade -off is cheap food and ammo. Exactly. 00:11:25.460 --> 00:11:27.899 But try explaining that to Alex Clark from Turning 00:11:27.899 --> 00:11:30.720 Point USA or Vani Hari, known as the Food Babe. 00:11:31.139 --> 00:11:33.120 These are really influential figures in that 00:11:33.120 --> 00:11:36.039 movement who rallied voters for Trump. Alex Clark 00:11:36.039 --> 00:11:38.679 was actually quoted asking, how can we win their 00:11:38.679 --> 00:11:41.659 trust back? It seems like a massive unforced 00:11:41.659 --> 00:11:45.159 error to alienate such a passionate slice of 00:11:45.159 --> 00:11:47.700 your coalition right before the midterms. It 00:11:47.700 --> 00:11:50.059 is. And it really shows the friction between 00:11:50.059 --> 00:11:53.240 the populist health wing of the party and the 00:11:53.240 --> 00:11:55.820 industrial military wing. They are on a collision 00:11:55.820 --> 00:11:57.840 course. You can't really have a healthy living 00:11:57.840 --> 00:12:00.279 movement and a maximized chemical production 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:02.940 movement in the exact same tent without things 00:12:02.940 --> 00:12:05.860 getting incredibly messy. And speaking of military 00:12:05.860 --> 00:12:07.480 collisions, we need to look at the map for a 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:09.960 minute. While we are arguing about weed killer 00:12:09.960 --> 00:12:12.379 domestically, warships are moving in the Middle 00:12:12.379 --> 00:12:15.340 East. Yes. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike 00:12:15.340 --> 00:12:18.200 group are heading toward Iran. The sources actually 00:12:18.200 --> 00:12:20.200 call this a game of chicken. It's a high -stakes 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.919 one. Negotiations on nuclear development have 00:12:22.919 --> 00:12:25.860 totally stalled. The military assets are expected 00:12:25.860 --> 00:12:28.620 to be in place by mid -March. But the real threat 00:12:28.620 --> 00:12:31.519 here isn't necessarily a ground invasion or a 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:35.120 nuclear strike. It's the geography. The Strait 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:38.559 of Hormuz. Precisely. If you visualize the map, 00:12:38.750 --> 00:12:42.049 The Persian Gulf narrows down to this tiny choke 00:12:42.049 --> 00:12:45.070 point. The navigable channel for large ships 00:12:45.070 --> 00:12:48.509 is only two miles wide. Two miles. That is absolutely 00:12:48.509 --> 00:12:51.850 nothing in naval terms. It's tiny. But one fifth 00:12:51.850 --> 00:12:54.190 of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas 00:12:54.190 --> 00:12:57.070 passes right through that two mile strip. So 00:12:57.070 --> 00:12:59.370 Iran doesn't actually have to win a war against 00:12:59.370 --> 00:13:01.149 the U .S. Navy. They just have to mess up that 00:13:01.149 --> 00:13:04.029 channel. Correct. Iran's strategy, according 00:13:04.029 --> 00:13:06.389 to our analysis, isn't to win a shooting war. 00:13:06.549 --> 00:13:08.429 It's to threaten to sink tankers in that channel. 00:13:08.690 --> 00:13:10.730 If they do that, or even just credibly threaten 00:13:10.730 --> 00:13:13.450 it, insurance rates for shipping companies skyrocket. 00:13:13.710 --> 00:13:15.690 Right, because if Lloyds of London won't insure 00:13:15.690 --> 00:13:18.149 the ship, the ship simply doesn't sail. Exactly. 00:13:18.330 --> 00:13:20.610 Shipping stops entirely. Oil prices go through 00:13:20.610 --> 00:13:23.470 the roof. And if gas hits $7 or $8 a gallon here 00:13:23.470 --> 00:13:26.799 at home? The global economy spirals and the administration 00:13:26.799 --> 00:13:29.919 is doomed politically. That kind of economic 00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:33.000 chaos is the real weapon. It's asymmetric warfare. 00:13:33.379 --> 00:13:34.940 You don't need to sink the aircraft carrier. 00:13:35.279 --> 00:13:37.220 You just need to make the insurance premiums 00:13:37.220 --> 00:13:40.299 too high for the oil tankers to sail. And that 00:13:40.299 --> 00:13:43.759 reality serves as a massive check on the administration's 00:13:43.759 --> 00:13:46.740 ability to act aggressively. So we have the Supreme 00:13:46.740 --> 00:13:49.700 Court checking the president on trade, a fractured 00:13:49.700 --> 00:13:53.740 base with the MAHA moms, and a potential economic 00:13:53.740 --> 00:13:56.759 disaster brewing in this trade of Hormuz. Let's 00:13:56.759 --> 00:13:59.340 bring it back to the ballot box because the political 00:13:59.340 --> 00:14:01.100 maneuvering for the midterms and even looking 00:14:01.100 --> 00:14:04.539 ahead to 2028 is already getting weird. Weird 00:14:04.539 --> 00:14:06.779 is a good word for it. Let's look at Colorado's 00:14:06.779 --> 00:14:08.820 third district. This is a perfect example of 00:14:08.820 --> 00:14:11.220 down -ballot chaos. This is the seat held by 00:14:11.220 --> 00:14:13.980 Republican Jeff Hurd. Jeff Hurd is a fairly standard 00:14:13.980 --> 00:14:16.419 Republican who voted against the tariffs on Canada. 00:14:16.740 --> 00:14:19.220 Why? Because his district relies on trade with 00:14:19.220 --> 00:14:22.220 Canada. He was voting for his constituents' wallets. 00:14:22.379 --> 00:14:24.889 And Trump didn't like that. Trump de -endorsed 00:14:24.889 --> 00:14:27.929 him, and he endorsed a candidate named Hope Shepleman 00:14:27.929 --> 00:14:31.090 instead. Sources describe her as an extremist, 00:14:31.370 --> 00:14:33.769 so much so that she's actually been removed from 00:14:33.769 --> 00:14:36.769 party leadership positions before. And this infighting 00:14:36.769 --> 00:14:39.610 creates an opening. A massive opening. Sources 00:14:39.610 --> 00:14:42.460 suggest this seat which should be safe Republican, 00:14:42.720 --> 00:14:45.740 is now totally in play. The Democrats have a 00:14:45.740 --> 00:14:48.440 candidate named Kyle Doster, who is a barista. 00:14:48.580 --> 00:14:50.879 A barista, like pulling espresso shots. Yes. 00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:52.860 And I don't mean that as a slight at all. It's 00:14:52.860 --> 00:14:55.620 just a stark contrast to a seasoned politician. 00:14:55.940 --> 00:14:58.419 But because the Republican vote is potentially 00:14:58.419 --> 00:15:01.600 going to be split or depressed by a radical candidate, 00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:04.659 a barista might actually end up in Congress. 00:15:04.879 --> 00:15:07.539 It really illustrates how the purity tests from 00:15:07.539 --> 00:15:09.320 the top of the ticket can cost the party seats 00:15:09.320 --> 00:15:11.610 that should be easy win. And then there is Texas. 00:15:12.190 --> 00:15:14.210 The money being spent there is eye -watering. 00:15:14.350 --> 00:15:17.009 It is the Senate race. Incumbent John Cornyn 00:15:17.009 --> 00:15:19.830 versus Attorney General Ken Paxton. The establishment 00:15:19.830 --> 00:15:22.830 is terrified of Paxton winning the primary. They 00:15:22.830 --> 00:15:25.210 have already spent over 90 million dollars to 00:15:25.210 --> 00:15:28.210 save Cornyn. 90 million? That seems like an insane 00:15:28.210 --> 00:15:30.889 amount of money for just a primary. And that's 00:15:30.889 --> 00:15:34.149 before the runoff. It's dark money, oil money. 00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:37.659 They are flooding the zone because they know 00:15:37.659 --> 00:15:40.639 if Paxton wins the primary, the seat becomes 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:43.460 vulnerable in the general election. They are 00:15:43.460 --> 00:15:45.960 paying an absolute fortune to keep Maggie Gay 00:15:45.960 --> 00:15:48.559 candidates off the general election ballot just 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:52.139 to save the Senate majority. It's basically a 00:15:52.139 --> 00:15:55.320 civil war within the party, fought with ad buys. 00:15:55.779 --> 00:15:57.259 Before we wrap up, we have to touch on the list 00:15:57.259 --> 00:15:59.360 that everyone in the political nerd sphere is 00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:01.899 talking about right now. Nate Silver released 00:16:01.899 --> 00:16:04.179 his rankings for the twenty twenty eight Democratic 00:16:04.200 --> 00:16:08.080 Ah, yes, the list. You sound skeptical. Well, 00:16:08.220 --> 00:16:10.080 the sources are skeptical. Nate Silver has people 00:16:10.080 --> 00:16:12.779 like Gavin Newsom, AOC, and Pete Buttigieg right 00:16:12.779 --> 00:16:14.460 at the top. Which makes sense. On paper, they 00:16:14.460 --> 00:16:16.419 are the most famous. They completely dominate 00:16:16.419 --> 00:16:18.840 the Twitter feed. They are famous. But the critique 00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:21.700 here is that Silver is confusing hype with electability, 00:16:22.259 --> 00:16:24.480 especially with white working class voters in 00:16:24.480 --> 00:16:27.519 swing states. The internet is not the electorate. 00:16:27.840 --> 00:16:29.960 So who does the analysis suggest we should actually 00:16:29.960 --> 00:16:32.580 be watching? The sources suggest looking at governors 00:16:32.580 --> 00:16:35.740 like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania or Andy Beshear 00:16:35.740 --> 00:16:37.990 in Kentucky. The guys who actually win in red 00:16:37.990 --> 00:16:40.870 or purple states. Exactly. They aren't generating 00:16:40.870 --> 00:16:44.549 the same internet buzz as AOC, but statistically 00:16:44.549 --> 00:16:46.850 they are much safer bets to actually win the 00:16:46.850 --> 00:16:49.269 electoral college. The argument is that silver 00:16:49.269 --> 00:16:51.690 is looking at who excites the activist base, 00:16:51.850 --> 00:16:53.990 not who actually wins the general election in 00:16:53.990 --> 00:16:55.889 places like Wisconsin or Michigan. It's always 00:16:55.889 --> 00:16:58.409 the quiet ones you have to watch. Always. So 00:16:58.409 --> 00:17:00.029 let's bring this all together. We've covered 00:17:00.029 --> 00:17:02.970 a lot of ground today from Robert's grammar lesson 00:17:02.970 --> 00:17:07.450 to Iranian tankers to Colorado. East is. What 00:17:07.450 --> 00:17:09.769 is the through line here for the listener? I 00:17:09.769 --> 00:17:11.730 think the real theme of this deep dive is that 00:17:11.730 --> 00:17:13.970 the checks and checks and balances are hitting 00:17:13.970 --> 00:17:16.109 back hard. You have the Supreme Court drawing 00:17:16.109 --> 00:17:19.390 a red line on tariffs. You have political coalitions 00:17:19.390 --> 00:17:22.369 like the MAHA movement fracturing because promises 00:17:22.369 --> 00:17:25.029 simply weren't kept. And you have the economic 00:17:25.029 --> 00:17:27.650 reality of the Strait of Hormuz checking military 00:17:27.650 --> 00:17:30.230 ambition. Feels like gravity is reasserting itself. 00:17:30.559 --> 00:17:32.440 That's a really great way to put it. You can 00:17:32.440 --> 00:17:34.920 only defy political and economic gravity for 00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:38.019 so long before the mechanics of the system, the 00:17:38.019 --> 00:17:40.099 laws, the supply chains, the voters start to 00:17:40.099 --> 00:17:41.880 push back. I want to leave the listener with 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:44.160 one final thought, something to really chew on 00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:46.299 based on what we've learned. You mentioned earlier 00:17:46.299 --> 00:17:50.200 that 150 -day clock on the new Section 122 Terrace. 00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:52.940 Yes. That is the thing I honestly can't stop 00:17:52.940 --> 00:17:54.779 thinking about. If you look at the calendar, 00:17:55.619 --> 00:17:58.000 150 days from now lands us right in the summer 00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:02.200 of 2026. So what happens then? That is the multi 00:18:02.200 --> 00:18:04.579 -billion dollar question. When that clock runs 00:18:04.579 --> 00:18:07.180 out, Republicans in Congress will have to make 00:18:07.180 --> 00:18:10.039 a binary choice. Do they block the tariffs to 00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:12.519 save the economy and lower prices for their voters? 00:18:12.960 --> 00:18:15.680 Or do they fold and let the tariffs stand just 00:18:15.680 --> 00:18:18.039 to avoid a primary challenge from the president? 00:18:18.779 --> 00:18:20.660 The timeline suggests we are heading straight 00:18:20.660 --> 00:18:23.359 for a summer of economic brinksmanship that will 00:18:23.359 --> 00:18:25.720 decide the fate of the midterms. It's a game 00:18:25.720 --> 00:18:28.619 of chicken and the cars are speeding up. A ticking 00:18:28.619 --> 00:18:30.460 clock right in the middle of an election year. 00:18:30.680 --> 00:18:32.380 We will definitely be watching that closely. 00:18:32.900 --> 00:18:34.559 That's it for this deep dive. Thanks so much 00:18:34.559 --> 00:18:35.700 for listening. See you next time.