WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.540 All right, let's start today with just a number, 00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:09.480 0 .075. That sounds like a rounding error almost. 00:00:09.720 --> 00:00:11.779 It does, right. But if we were talking about 00:00:11.779 --> 00:00:15.080 baseball, you know, a batting average, .075 gets 00:00:15.080 --> 00:00:17.000 you sent right back to the minors. Well, for 00:00:17.000 --> 00:00:18.679 sure. I mean, even when pitchers still had to 00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:22.800 hit, they averaged something like .108. So .075 00:00:22.800 --> 00:00:25.300 is just, you know, historically bad. But we are 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:26.640 not talking about baseball. We're talking about 00:00:26.640 --> 00:00:29.039 the federal courts. Exactly. We're talking about 00:00:29.039 --> 00:00:32.320 Donald Trump's win rate, specifically in cases 00:00:32.320 --> 00:00:35.619 about his mass detention policies. And that one 00:00:35.619 --> 00:00:38.679 number, that .075 is kind of the hook for everything 00:00:38.679 --> 00:00:40.590 we're looking for. it today. It really is. We've 00:00:40.590 --> 00:00:43.329 got this whole stack of reports here, testimony 00:00:43.329 --> 00:00:46.429 from the Epstein files, some wild financial data 00:00:46.429 --> 00:00:50.509 on billionaires, even some genuinely scary reporting 00:00:50.509 --> 00:00:52.649 on Iran. And the through line isn't just politics. 00:00:52.729 --> 00:00:56.929 It's more about friction, like mechanical friction. 00:00:57.070 --> 00:00:58.729 What do you mean by that? You have this political 00:00:58.729 --> 00:01:00.869 force, right? The White House, a big donor, the 00:01:00.869 --> 00:01:02.829 Pentagon, whoever, and they're trying to push 00:01:02.829 --> 00:01:05.170 something through. And then you have the gears 00:01:05.170 --> 00:01:09.040 of the system, the courts, the law. public opinion, 00:01:09.459 --> 00:01:11.799 grinding back against it. Sometimes those gears 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:14.180 hold and sometimes, well, sometimes they strip. 00:01:14.420 --> 00:01:17.819 And that .075 number that suggests the gears 00:01:17.819 --> 00:01:20.140 in the judiciary are holding, at least for now. 00:01:20.340 --> 00:01:22.260 They're definitely holding. Let's dig into that 00:01:22.260 --> 00:01:25.159 scorecard from Politico. They looked at every 00:01:25.159 --> 00:01:27.780 single case filed against the administration's 00:01:27.780 --> 00:01:30.019 detention policies. How many are we talking about? 00:01:30.879 --> 00:01:35.140 411 cases. Wow. And out of 411? The administration 00:01:35.140 --> 00:01:38.480 has lost 380 of them. They've won just 31. 31. 00:01:38.599 --> 00:01:41.519 I mean, for a sitting government, that is a staggering 00:01:41.519 --> 00:01:44.680 failure rate. It is. But this is the part that 00:01:44.680 --> 00:01:47.000 confuses me. Because the narrative we always 00:01:47.000 --> 00:01:49.040 hear, especially on social media, is that the 00:01:49.040 --> 00:01:50.980 courts are captured. The captured courts idea, 00:01:51.019 --> 00:01:52.620 yeah. Exactly. You know, if you get a Trump judge, 00:01:52.659 --> 00:01:54.700 you win. If you get an Obama judge, you lose. 00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:56.599 It's all supposed to be a rubber stamp. That's 00:01:56.599 --> 00:01:59.099 the popular narrative, for sure. But this data 00:01:59.099 --> 00:02:02.930 just... it completely demolishes it. So what's 00:02:02.930 --> 00:02:05.049 actually happening? Why are they losing so consistently? 00:02:05.409 --> 00:02:07.569 Well, it's not just about who appointed the judge. 00:02:08.050 --> 00:02:10.849 I mean, sure, if you look at the 31 wins, most 00:02:10.849 --> 00:02:13.229 of them did come from Trump appointees. OK, so 00:02:13.229 --> 00:02:15.449 that part fits the narrative. It does. But you 00:02:15.449 --> 00:02:18.409 have to flip it. Look at the losses. Trump appointed 00:02:18.409 --> 00:02:21.210 judges are ruling against the administration's 00:02:21.210 --> 00:02:24.650 policies 66 % of the time. Wait, two thirds of 00:02:24.650 --> 00:02:27.770 the time, the quote unquote home team is calling 00:02:27.770 --> 00:02:31.150 a penalty on their own guy. That's right. And 00:02:31.150 --> 00:02:33.169 that doesn't make any sense if it's just about 00:02:33.169 --> 00:02:35.689 pure partisanship. So what is it about? It's 00:02:35.689 --> 00:02:38.569 about administrative law. I know it's the unsexy 00:02:38.569 --> 00:02:40.710 machinery that runs the government, but it's 00:02:40.710 --> 00:02:42.870 everything here. Right. When a judge strikes 00:02:42.870 --> 00:02:45.330 down a policy, they're not usually saying, I 00:02:45.330 --> 00:02:47.770 hate this idea politically. They're saying, you 00:02:47.770 --> 00:02:50.389 did this wrong. Meaning they like skipped a step 00:02:50.389 --> 00:02:53.129 or something? Exactly. The Administrative Procedure 00:02:53.129 --> 00:02:56.729 Act, the APA, is the rule book. And it requires 00:02:56.729 --> 00:03:00.419 things like notice, public comment periods, rational 00:03:00.419 --> 00:03:02.900 justifications. You can't just send a tweet and 00:03:02.900 --> 00:03:06.300 change federal policy. You can't. And when an 00:03:06.300 --> 00:03:08.719 administration tries to move that fast, they 00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:11.919 almost always violate the APA. So these judges, 00:03:12.080 --> 00:03:13.639 even the conservative ones, are just looking 00:03:13.639 --> 00:03:16.719 at the process and saying, this is arbitrary 00:03:16.719 --> 00:03:18.800 and capricious. So they're not ruling on the 00:03:18.800 --> 00:03:21.780 politics. They're ruling on the sloppiness. More 00:03:21.780 --> 00:03:24.560 wisely. The judiciary is acting like a guardrail. 00:03:24.719 --> 00:03:26.039 It's saying, we don't care what your mandate 00:03:26.039 --> 00:03:28.560 is. You have to follow the rule. OK, so the system 00:03:28.560 --> 00:03:30.939 is working as designed there. It's checking power. 00:03:31.080 --> 00:03:34.560 For now, yes. But that leads us right into our 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:37.180 next story, where the system didn't just fail 00:03:37.180 --> 00:03:39.680 to check power. It looks like it might have been 00:03:39.680 --> 00:03:41.240 turned off entirely. You're talking about the 00:03:41.240 --> 00:03:44.659 Epstein files. I am. Specifically, the new testimony 00:03:44.659 --> 00:03:47.159 from Leslie Wexner. This was the big one from 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:49.180 the House Oversight Committee. And for you listening, 00:03:49.460 --> 00:03:52.340 Wexner isn't just some random person. He's the 00:03:52.340 --> 00:03:54.539 billionaire behind Victoria's Secret and The 00:03:54.539 --> 00:03:56.659 Limited. And he's really the person who made 00:03:56.659 --> 00:03:58.879 Jeffrey Epstein rich in the first place. So he 00:03:58.879 --> 00:04:00.780 testified in a closed session. But we have the 00:04:00.780 --> 00:04:02.900 summary from the ranking member Robert Garcia. 00:04:03.539 --> 00:04:06.400 And Wexner's defense was. It was the I know nothing 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:09.680 defense. He basically claimed he was naive, foolish 00:04:09.680 --> 00:04:12.780 and gullible. He painted himself as the victim. 00:04:12.990 --> 00:04:15.430 said Epstein fleeced him of money and that he 00:04:15.430 --> 00:04:19.170 had zero idea about the trafficking. Which is 00:04:19.170 --> 00:04:22.050 a little hard to believe. I mean, Ghislaine Maxwell 00:04:22.050 --> 00:04:25.310 herself is on record calling Wexner Epstein's 00:04:25.310 --> 00:04:27.269 closest friend. You don't just hand over power 00:04:27.269 --> 00:04:29.970 of attorney and the keys to your entire fortune 00:04:29.970 --> 00:04:32.490 to some guy you barely know. It just doesn't 00:04:32.490 --> 00:04:35.069 track. And Representative Garcia said as much. 00:04:35.290 --> 00:04:37.779 He said flat out he didn't believe Wexner. But 00:04:37.779 --> 00:04:40.519 the really explosive part of this story isn't 00:04:40.519 --> 00:04:44.459 the denial. No. Rich guys deny things. The bombshell 00:04:44.459 --> 00:04:46.680 is the government's total silence on this for 00:04:46.680 --> 00:04:49.100 years. This is the part that just blew my mind. 00:04:49.800 --> 00:04:52.439 Wexner admitted, under oath, that before this 00:04:52.439 --> 00:04:54.319 hearing he had never been interviewed by the 00:04:54.319 --> 00:04:56.759 FBI or the DOJ about Epstein. Think about that 00:04:56.759 --> 00:04:59.060 for a second. His name is everywhere. The flight 00:04:59.060 --> 00:05:02.000 logs, the legal documents. He's the primary financial 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:04.439 engine of the entire operation. And federal law 00:05:04.439 --> 00:05:07.639 enforcement never thought, hey, maybe? Maybe 00:05:07.639 --> 00:05:09.779 we should ask this guy a few questions. It gets 00:05:09.779 --> 00:05:13.660 even worse. Fox News dug up this memo about a 00:05:13.660 --> 00:05:16.639 man named Robert Murawski. He was a former executive 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:19.220 at Wexner's company. And what did he say? He 00:05:19.220 --> 00:05:22.040 allegedly tried to tell the FBI years ago that 00:05:22.040 --> 00:05:24.500 Wexner's private jet was being used to traffic 00:05:24.500 --> 00:05:26.899 girls from Mexico. So there's a whistleblower. 00:05:27.199 --> 00:05:29.399 It looks like it. And the FBI even had a memo 00:05:29.399 --> 00:05:31.819 acknowledging Murawski was ready to talk. But 00:05:31.819 --> 00:05:34.199 the call never came. They just ignored the lead. 00:05:34.569 --> 00:05:37.189 So unlike the court cases where the system is 00:05:37.189 --> 00:05:41.730 checking power with a 0 .075 average, here the 00:05:41.730 --> 00:05:44.490 system seems to have actively shielded it. It 00:05:44.490 --> 00:05:46.149 certainly looks that way. And you know what? 00:05:46.329 --> 00:05:49.069 The public feels it. There's a new Reuter -Sipsos 00:05:49.069 --> 00:05:51.310 poll that should honestly terrify anyone who 00:05:51.310 --> 00:05:53.560 cares about a stable society. What'd it find? 00:05:53.920 --> 00:05:56.560 86 % of Americans agree that powerful people 00:05:56.560 --> 00:05:58.759 are rarely held accountable for their actions. 00:05:59.459 --> 00:06:02.079 86%. You can't get that many Americans to agree 00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:04.879 on anything. It's a national consensus of cynicism. 00:06:05.959 --> 00:06:08.660 And 77 % said the Epstein files specifically 00:06:08.660 --> 00:06:10.660 have lowered their trust in government. But there's 00:06:10.660 --> 00:06:12.560 a weird partisan split in there, isn't there? 00:06:12.839 --> 00:06:15.220 Yeah. And it's tactical. Republicans want to 00:06:15.220 --> 00:06:17.300 keep digging because they think the dirt leads 00:06:17.300 --> 00:06:19.860 to Democrats. And Democrats, well... They're 00:06:19.860 --> 00:06:21.819 more likely to want to just move on. So it's 00:06:21.819 --> 00:06:24.040 not about justice. It's about political damage 00:06:24.040 --> 00:06:28.459 control. It is. But that 86 percent number, that 00:06:28.459 --> 00:06:30.879 is dangerous fuel. When the vast majority of 00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:32.980 people believe the game is rigged, they stop 00:06:32.980 --> 00:06:35.000 playing by the rules. And when trust disappears, 00:06:35.439 --> 00:06:38.199 money tends to rush in to fill that void. Which 00:06:38.199 --> 00:06:40.800 brings us to this new data on campaign finance. 00:06:41.050 --> 00:06:43.970 This is a report from Americans for Tax Fairness 00:06:43.970 --> 00:06:46.709 that Paul Krugman wrote about. And the scale 00:06:46.709 --> 00:06:48.949 has just changed. We all know money in politics 00:06:48.949 --> 00:06:51.990 is nothing new. Of course not. But the concentration 00:06:51.990 --> 00:06:55.350 of it is. Back in 2010, billionaire money in 00:06:55.350 --> 00:06:57.550 federal elections was basically a rounding error. 00:06:57.910 --> 00:07:01.290 Today, it's 16 .5 % of all contributions. And 00:07:01.290 --> 00:07:02.990 again, we're not talking about the 1%. This is 00:07:02.990 --> 00:07:06.329 from just 748 people. Less than a thousand individuals 00:07:06.329 --> 00:07:08.689 are bankrolling almost a fifth of our entire 00:07:08.689 --> 00:07:11.160 political system. But here's where that friction 00:07:11.160 --> 00:07:14.240 idea comes back. Money can buy you ads. It can 00:07:14.240 --> 00:07:16.759 buy you access. But it can't always control the 00:07:16.759 --> 00:07:19.379 story. Not anymore. And the James Tolerico story 00:07:19.379 --> 00:07:21.779 is the perfect example of this. Oh, I love this 00:07:21.779 --> 00:07:24.560 story. It's such a perfect own goal. So Tolerico 00:07:24.560 --> 00:07:27.259 is running for Senate in Texas. He gets booked 00:07:27.259 --> 00:07:29.439 on the late show with Stephen Colbert. Which 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:31.879 is the jackpot, right? Massive audience. The 00:07:31.879 --> 00:07:34.100 golden ticket for a Democrat in a red state. 00:07:34.500 --> 00:07:37.779 But then the calls start coming in. Pressure 00:07:37.779 --> 00:07:41.360 from CBS execs. Maybe a nudge from the FCC chairman. 00:07:41.639 --> 00:07:43.680 And they spiked the appearance. They try to silence 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:46.079 him. And, you know, 10 or 20 years ago, that 00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:47.740 would have been the end of it. Story over. Right. 00:07:48.120 --> 00:07:52.540 But in 2026, he just goes on YouTube. He releases 00:07:52.540 --> 00:07:54.920 the uncensored interview himself. And it gets 00:07:54.920 --> 00:07:57.319 five million views. That's like double what Colbert 00:07:57.319 --> 00:08:00.089 gets on a good night. And the best part? He raises 00:08:00.089 --> 00:08:02.269 two and a half million dollars in small dollar 00:08:02.269 --> 00:08:04.670 donations in just a couple of days. It's the 00:08:04.670 --> 00:08:06.949 Streisand effect on steroids. The attempt to 00:08:06.949 --> 00:08:09.129 shut him down gave him a bigger megaphone than 00:08:09.129 --> 00:08:11.170 he ever would have had. It just shows that the 00:08:11.170 --> 00:08:13.850 old gatekeepers, the people who used to decide 00:08:13.850 --> 00:08:17.110 who was serious and who wasn't, they've lost 00:08:17.110 --> 00:08:20.430 their grip. The leverage is shifting. Okay, so 00:08:20.430 --> 00:08:23.110 if you can't totally control the media and you 00:08:23.110 --> 00:08:26.089 can't fully control the courts, you try to control 00:08:26.089 --> 00:08:28.149 who gets to vote in the first place. And that's 00:08:28.149 --> 00:08:30.449 exactly where the ground game is right now. We 00:08:30.449 --> 00:08:32.690 know the big federal voter ID push, the SAVE 00:08:32.690 --> 00:08:35.230 -E Act, has stalled in the Senate. So the fight 00:08:35.230 --> 00:08:37.990 has moved to the states. And it's gotten very, 00:08:37.990 --> 00:08:41.429 very specific. We're seeing pushes to ban ballot 00:08:41.429 --> 00:08:45.070 harvesting and automatic mail -in ballots. That 00:08:45.070 --> 00:08:48.429 term ballot harvesting is so loaded. It really 00:08:48.429 --> 00:08:51.509 is. It sounds so sinister. But in practice, It 00:08:51.509 --> 00:08:53.409 often just means one person dropping off sealed 00:08:53.409 --> 00:08:55.210 ballots for a bunch of people who can't travel. 00:08:55.389 --> 00:08:57.429 Like in a nursing home or on a Native American 00:08:57.429 --> 00:08:59.549 reservation where the nearest polling place is 00:08:59.549 --> 00:09:02.750 an hour away. Exactly. Banning it isn't a neutral 00:09:02.750 --> 00:09:05.090 act. It's targeted at specific demographics. 00:09:05.850 --> 00:09:08.690 But the mail -in ballot ban, that one is fascinating. 00:09:08.889 --> 00:09:11.049 Because it could actually backfire on the GOP. 00:09:11.129 --> 00:09:13.529 It's a huge gamble. They're pushing this in states 00:09:13.529 --> 00:09:16.429 like California, Washington, even Utah. The theory 00:09:16.429 --> 00:09:19.009 is that mail -in voting helps Democrats. But 00:09:19.009 --> 00:09:22.289 wait. In a deep blue state like California, the 00:09:22.289 --> 00:09:25.210 only places Republicans can win are often these 00:09:25.210 --> 00:09:28.230 specific suburban or rural districts. And guess 00:09:28.230 --> 00:09:31.570 what? Republican voters in those districts love 00:09:31.570 --> 00:09:34.669 voting by mail. It's convenient. So if you ban 00:09:34.669 --> 00:09:36.710 the easy option that your own voters prefer, 00:09:36.870 --> 00:09:38.850 you might just be suppressing your own turnout. 00:09:39.230 --> 00:09:41.529 You might be costing yourself a House majority. 00:09:41.950 --> 00:09:44.490 to solve a problem that doesn't really exist. 00:09:44.990 --> 00:09:47.990 It's the law of unintended consequences. So while 00:09:47.990 --> 00:09:50.149 the GOP is making that gamble, it looks like 00:09:50.149 --> 00:09:53.149 Democrats in Colorado are just flipping the whole 00:09:53.149 --> 00:09:57.590 table over. Redistricting 28. This is a This 00:09:57.590 --> 00:10:00.009 is the Democrats deciding to play hardball. This 00:10:00.009 --> 00:10:02.909 feels like pure retaliation, doesn't it? It absolutely 00:10:02.909 --> 00:10:05.370 is. For years, we've watched red states like 00:10:05.370 --> 00:10:07.889 Texas and Missouri redraw their maps mid decade 00:10:07.889 --> 00:10:10.649 just to squeeze out one or two more seats. So 00:10:10.649 --> 00:10:12.830 Colorado Democrats finally said, OK, if that's 00:10:12.830 --> 00:10:14.409 the game we're playing. So they're putting a 00:10:14.409 --> 00:10:16.610 ballot initiative together to strip power from 00:10:16.610 --> 00:10:18.750 their own independent redistricting commission, 00:10:18.850 --> 00:10:20.549 the thing that was supposed to make it fair. 00:10:20.970 --> 00:10:24.149 Yes. They want to give the map making power back 00:10:24.149 --> 00:10:26.409 to the state legislature, which they control. 00:10:26.669 --> 00:10:30.830 And the goal is ruthless. Take the state's congressional 00:10:30.830 --> 00:10:34.870 delegation from a 4 -4 split to 7 -1 Democrat. 00:10:35.129 --> 00:10:38.909 Wow. I mean, it feels like we're just heading 00:10:38.909 --> 00:10:41.809 toward a country with no swing states, just fortified 00:10:41.809 --> 00:10:44.460 partisan bunkers. That's the trend. Winner take 00:10:44.460 --> 00:10:46.679 all. And if every state does this, the House 00:10:46.679 --> 00:10:48.700 of Representatives stops reflecting the country 00:10:48.700 --> 00:10:51.259 and just starts reflecting who controls the state 00:10:51.259 --> 00:10:53.580 houses. It's another norm, like independent commissions 00:10:53.580 --> 00:10:55.840 just being tossed aside for raw power. Which 00:10:55.840 --> 00:10:58.179 is a perfect segue to the culture war brewing 00:10:58.179 --> 00:11:01.039 inside the military. This story about Secretary 00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:04.340 of Defense Pete Hegseth. It reads like satire, 00:11:04.340 --> 00:11:06.340 but it's not. He's going after the Ivy League. 00:11:06.419 --> 00:11:08.620 He's threatening to pull military tuition assistants 00:11:08.620 --> 00:11:10.860 from schools like Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, 00:11:11.000 --> 00:11:13.169 which, by the way, is his own alma mater. And 00:11:13.169 --> 00:11:16.629 the reason is they're too woke. That's the argument. 00:11:17.090 --> 00:11:18.669 He says they're biased against the military and 00:11:18.669 --> 00:11:20.970 are pushing anti -American ideas. He wants to 00:11:20.970 --> 00:11:24.610 create a warrior class that isn't tainted by 00:11:24.610 --> 00:11:27.509 elite academia. But the pushback isn't really 00:11:27.509 --> 00:11:29.470 coming from the universities. It's coming from 00:11:29.470 --> 00:11:32.190 inside the Pentagon itself. Of course it is. 00:11:32.389 --> 00:11:35.350 Because the military doesn't care about ideology 00:11:35.350 --> 00:11:38.500 as much as it cares about competence. Modern 00:11:38.500 --> 00:11:41.039 warfare isn't just about pull -ups and marksmanship 00:11:41.039 --> 00:11:44.139 anymore. Right. It's about AI and cybersecurity 00:11:44.139 --> 00:11:47.820 and logistics. You need computer scientists to 00:11:47.820 --> 00:11:50.460 run your drone programs. And where do you find 00:11:50.460 --> 00:11:54.250 some of the best computer scientists? top research 00:11:54.250 --> 00:11:56.629 universities. So if you cut off the pipeline 00:11:56.629 --> 00:12:00.330 to MIT or Stanford, you're not punishing the 00:12:00.330 --> 00:12:03.230 schools. You're punishing yourself. You are literally 00:12:03.230 --> 00:12:05.929 making your officer corps less educated than 00:12:05.929 --> 00:12:08.129 your enemies. The public seems to get this too. 00:12:08.490 --> 00:12:10.490 The Hill polled its readers, who tend to lean 00:12:10.490 --> 00:12:13.809 conservative, and 89 % were against Hegseth's 00:12:13.809 --> 00:12:15.470 move. It's a solution in search of a problem. 00:12:15.559 --> 00:12:17.820 Kind of like this next fight over data centers. 00:12:18.100 --> 00:12:20.159 This one is just so ironic. You have Trump, who 00:12:20.159 --> 00:12:23.120 is all in on AI. He wants America to dominate 00:12:23.120 --> 00:12:25.330 the AI future. Right. But then you have local 00:12:25.330 --> 00:12:27.649 Republicans in places like Oklahoma and Georgia 00:12:27.649 --> 00:12:30.870 who are trying to ban the very data centers you 00:12:30.870 --> 00:12:33.750 need for AI. It's the ultimate not in my backyard 00:12:33.750 --> 00:12:36.990 problem. And I'm easing a huge one. These data 00:12:36.990 --> 00:12:39.429 centers are incredibly loud. They use a ton of 00:12:39.429 --> 00:12:41.529 water and electricity and they don't even create 00:12:41.529 --> 00:12:44.210 that many local jobs once they're built. So you 00:12:44.210 --> 00:12:46.710 end up with this bizarre political alignment 00:12:46.710 --> 00:12:49.549 where Ron DeSantis and Bernie Sanders are basically 00:12:49.549 --> 00:12:51.909 on the same side saying keep these things out 00:12:51.909 --> 00:12:54.230 of our communities. It's another point. friction. 00:12:55.090 --> 00:12:57.049 The administration's national goal is hitting 00:12:57.049 --> 00:13:00.429 a wall at the local level. But all of these fights, 00:13:00.750 --> 00:13:03.450 the courts, the voting maps, the data centers, 00:13:03.990 --> 00:13:06.769 they all pale in comparison to this last story. 00:13:07.450 --> 00:13:09.250 This is the one that really changes the entire 00:13:09.250 --> 00:13:11.889 equation. Axios is reporting that the administration 00:13:11.889 --> 00:13:13.809 isn't just talking about containment anymore. 00:13:14.269 --> 00:13:16.029 They're talking about regime change. And they're 00:13:16.029 --> 00:13:18.610 not being subtle about it. They're openly referencing 00:13:18.610 --> 00:13:22.809 1953, the overthrow of Mossadegh. That is a very 00:13:22.809 --> 00:13:25.629 loud historical reference to make. It's incredibly 00:13:25.629 --> 00:13:28.330 loud. And the context is that the nuclear talks 00:13:28.330 --> 00:13:30.830 have completely stalled. You have JD Vance out 00:13:30.830 --> 00:13:34.190 there saying Iran is ignoring our red lines. 00:13:34.970 --> 00:13:37.110 So the logic seems to be we can't let him get 00:13:37.110 --> 00:13:39.409 a bomb. So the only way to be sure is to topple 00:13:39.409 --> 00:13:41.789 the government. Is this a real plan, though? 00:13:42.110 --> 00:13:45.250 Or is it just the madman theory? You act aggressive 00:13:45.250 --> 00:13:47.690 and unpredictable to scare them back to the negotiating 00:13:47.690 --> 00:13:50.330 table. That's the optimistic take, right? Move 00:13:50.330 --> 00:13:53.009 the carriers, leak the war plans, make the ayatollahs 00:13:53.009 --> 00:13:55.610 nervous. But the thing about high stakes bluffs 00:13:55.610 --> 00:13:57.710 is that sometimes the other guy doesn't blink. 00:13:57.970 --> 00:14:00.269 And if they don't blink, you either have to back 00:14:00.269 --> 00:14:03.169 down and look weak or you actually have to go 00:14:03.169 --> 00:14:06.169 to war. And a war with Iran isn't some quick 00:14:06.899 --> 00:14:10.039 pinprick strike. It's a massive regional conflict. 00:14:10.320 --> 00:14:13.379 It pulls in Israel. It activates proxies from 00:14:13.379 --> 00:14:16.340 Iraq to Lebanon. It shuts down the global oil 00:14:16.340 --> 00:14:18.659 supply. And it brings us right back to that warrior 00:14:18.659 --> 00:14:20.779 class debate we were just having. Right. You 00:14:20.779 --> 00:14:23.200 have Secretary Hegseth who wants ideologically 00:14:23.200 --> 00:14:25.340 pure fighters. You have an administration that 00:14:25.340 --> 00:14:27.039 might want a war. And then you have the Joint 00:14:27.039 --> 00:14:29.620 Chiefs of Staff, the career military professionals. 00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:31.840 The people who know exactly how difficult and 00:14:31.840 --> 00:14:34.539 bloody it would be to project power into a country 00:14:34.539 --> 00:14:38.600 of 90 million people. This is the ultimate institutional 00:14:38.600 --> 00:14:41.360 friction. What happens if the order for regime 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:43.899 change comes down and the generals say, sir, 00:14:44.080 --> 00:14:46.600 this plan is logistically impossible? That's 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:48.879 the question, isn't it? We started with the courts 00:14:48.879 --> 00:14:52.299 where the system is saying no and the administration 00:14:52.299 --> 00:14:54.399 has to listen. We talked about Epstein where 00:14:54.399 --> 00:14:56.980 the system failed to say no to power and money. 00:14:57.299 --> 00:14:59.759 But in the situation room, if the military says 00:14:59.759 --> 00:15:02.399 no, the consequences are life and death on a 00:15:02.399 --> 00:15:05.080 global scale. and you have to layer that 86 % 00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:08.240 number on top of it. The 86 % of Americans who 00:15:08.240 --> 00:15:11.019 don't trust the powerful. If you launch a major 00:15:11.019 --> 00:15:14.080 war of choice and it starts to go badly, with 00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:16.279 that level of public distrust from the outset, 00:15:17.019 --> 00:15:19.980 the domestic fallout would be unimaginable. It 00:15:19.980 --> 00:15:21.759 really feels like we're just walking on a tightrope. 00:15:21.899 --> 00:15:23.980 The systems are all straining, the old rules 00:15:23.980 --> 00:15:26.120 are being thrown out, and the stakes just keep 00:15:26.120 --> 00:15:29.080 getting higher. It's a stress test. a stress 00:15:29.080 --> 00:15:31.440 test of the entire American system, and we're 00:15:31.440 --> 00:15:33.360 all watching to see which parts hold and which 00:15:33.360 --> 00:15:36.039 parts break. Well, on that cheerful note, I think 00:15:36.039 --> 00:15:38.840 we'll leave it there. This has been the Deep 00:15:38.840 --> 00:15:41.720 Dive. Keep watching those batting averages, keep 00:15:41.720 --> 00:15:44.259 following the money, and above all, stay curious. 00:15:44.360 --> 00:15:45.159 We'll see you next time.