WEBVTT

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OK, so imagine a scenario for a moment. It sounds

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like something ripped straight out of science

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fiction. You have this massive American tech

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company, a huge success story, and they're building

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these tools that, well, the military itself admits

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are better than anything else out there. The

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only tools, in fact, that are trusted on their

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classified networks. Exactly. The only ones.

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And yet right now, as we speak, the Pentagon

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is threatening to label the same American company

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a supply chain risk. And we have to pause on

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that phrase, supply chain risk. That isn't just

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some, you know, bureaucratic slap on the wrist.

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That's the nuclear option. That's the label you

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give to a company like Huawei, a company you

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think is basically an arm of a foreign adversary.

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Right. Chinese bi -tech. But here it's being

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aimed at a U .S. company. And this whole standoff,

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it really sets the stage for today's deep dive,

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which we're calling Power and Paranoia. It's

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the perfect title, because when you look at the

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sources we have today, and they range from internal

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Pentagon memos to frankly bizarre tweets of sitting

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congressmen. Oh, we'll get to that. All the way

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to the polling data. You see this one single

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picture emerge. And what's that? You see a government

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that's at war with itself, at war with its own

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tech partners, and maybe even at war with its

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own history. So grab a coffee or maybe check

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the brake lines on your car. Which is literal

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advice, as you'll soon find out. And let's unpack

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this. We've got a lot to get through. First,

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this feud between Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

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and the AI giant Anthropic. Then we'll look at

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the fracturing of the Republican Party, where

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members of Congress are literally tweeting to

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prove they aren't suicidal. A sentence I never

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thought I'd say. And finally, we'll get to the

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numbers. The president's approval ratings are

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in a freefall. And the theories voters have about

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what it would take to turn those numbers around

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are, well, dark doesn't even begin to cover it.

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Dystopian might be closer. If... So let's start

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with the Pentagon, this standoff with Anthropic.

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It seems like a contract dispute, but you're

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saying it's much bigger than that. It really

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is. Here's the situation. The Department of War

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and specifically Secretary Hegseth is furious

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with Anthropic. Anthropic makes the AI model

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Claude for anyone who doesn't know. Right. And

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the Pentagon loves Claude. It's the only AI they

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have running on their classified systems. And

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we know it works. Oh, it works. The sources confirm

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it was used in that raid in Venezuela back in

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January, the Maduro raid. So this isn't about

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the product being bad. The fight is purely ideological.

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It's about the terms of service. Precisely. Anthropic

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is saying no to two things. First, weapons that

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can fire without a human in the loop. You know,

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killer robots. Okay, that seems reasonable. And

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second, and this is the big one domestic mass

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surveillance of Americans. Wait, stop there.

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That seems - completely reasonable. I feel like

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99 % of Americans would agree with both of those

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things. You'd think so. So why is the Pentagon

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willing to blow up the entire relationship over

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this? Because from their perspective, these rules

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are unduly restrictive. Their position is that

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they need to be able to use these AI tools for

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all lawful purposes. All lawful purposes. That

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phrase sounds so innocent. But it's doing a lot

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of work here. We have to look at what's actually

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considered lawful in 2026. And this is where

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the source is getting a little terrifying. We're

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not talking about illegal wiretaps. We're talking

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about open source intelligence. Yeah. Right now,

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the law says the government can collect any publicly

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available information. That's your social media

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posts, your public Venmo transactions, voter

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rolls, protest permits. And for decades, no one

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really worried about that because it was a needle

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in a haystack. You couldn't possibly have enough

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human analysts to read everyone's tweets. Exactly.

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Your privacy was protected by simple human limitation.

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But AI, AI removes that barrier completely. And

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anthropic sources lay out a pretty clear scenario.

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A nightmare scenario. They're worried that an

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AI like Claude could just continuously monitor

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every single American. 24 hours? I'm not hacking

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you. It's just taking everything you put out

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there in public and connecting all the dots instantly.

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Correct. Imagine a system that sees you criticize

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a policy on Twitter, cross references it with

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your voter registration, sees you signed up for

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a protest permit, and automatically flags you

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as a potential dissident. That's the difference

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between a librarian looking up a book and a supercomputer

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reading every book ever written. every second,

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just to see if your name is in it. That is a

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perfect analogy. And Anthropic is saying, we

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don't want our technology to build that list.

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They're drawing a line. But the Pentagon is playing

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hardball. Which brings us back to that supply

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chain risk threat. But what happens if they actually

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do it? It's a contagion. If Anthropic gets that

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label, they become radioactive. Any other company,

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a Lockheed Martin, a Boeing, if they want to

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do business with the military, they have to cut

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ties with Ampropic. The source is, quote, a senior

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official calling it an enormous pain in the ass.

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They did. But they also said they're willing

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to do it. to make Anthropic pay a price. So is

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Anthropic the only company they're talking to?

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Oh no, they're shopping around, negotiating with

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OpenAI, with Google, with XAI, and the administration

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is confident those other guys will agree to the

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all -lawful use standard. So the strategy is

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to isolate Anthropic. That's the gamble. Make

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an example of them. It's a test of whether an

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ethical AI company can even survive when its

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biggest potential customer demands total control.

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It's a digital power play. But I want to pivot

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now from digital threats to, well, physical ones.

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It's a jarring transition. It is. Because while

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the Pentagon is fighting about code inside the

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Republican Party, the fight is for physical safety.

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We go from high tech surveillance anxiety to

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this very old school, very visceral fear. And

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I have to read this tweet. It's from Representative

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Thomas Massey, a Republican from Kentucky. He

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wrote, quote, I'm not suicidal. I eat healthy

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food. The brakes on my car and truck are in good

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shape. There are no deep pools of water on my

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farm, and I'm a pretty good swimmer. It sounds

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like a joke, like some kind of dark comedy routine.

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But it's not. Not at all. In this context, it's

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deadly serious. He's literally listing all the

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ways people have accidents. It's something you'd

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expect a Russian dissident to post before falling

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out of a window. That's exactly the comparison

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the sources are making. Massey is signaling that

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if he dies mysteriously, it wasn't an accident.

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He's implying he fears being, while the slang

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is suicided, for opposing the administration.

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And it's not just him. Marjorie Taylor Greene,

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who was the face of the Magier movement for years.

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Now she's a target. Because she's pushing for

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the release of the Trump Epstein files. Right.

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She thinks hiding them is more damaging than

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whatever is in them. Trump called her wacky and

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suddenly she has over 700 death threats against

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her family. And she made a really telling point

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in the source material. She said when the left

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hated her, she got hate mail, but she never felt

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like she needed a private security detail. Not

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until she crossed Trump. Think about that statement.

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I was safer when my political enemies hated me

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than I am with my own side. It shows that loyalty

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is being enforced with fear. And this isn't just

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rhetoric. The sources mention the death of Charlie

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Kirk, the assassination of that state rep in

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Minnesota, Melissa Hortman. There's a body count.

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And that detail about Senator Katie Britt. Right.

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She offers some very mild criticism of the president.

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And the response from Trump was reportedly that

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she is dead to him. Which normally, you know,

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is just a figure of speech. But in this climate,

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the fear is that some unstable supporter hears

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that and takes it literally as an instruction.

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It creates this atmosphere where politicians

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are afraid to speak, not because they'll lose

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an election, but because they might lose their

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life. Which brings us to the obvious question.

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Why? Why is the pressure so high right now? And

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the answer seems to be in the polling data. The

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numbers are just... There was no spinning this.

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We're looking at net approval ratings for the

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president that are hitting historic lows for

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his second term. Yeah, between negative 19 and

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negative 26 percent, depending on which poll

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you look at. AP, Yahoo, NBC, they're all showing

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the same thing. A cratering. The floor just fell

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out. So one of our sources asked its readers,

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OK, what would it take to turn this around? How

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do you come back from being down 26 points? The

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answers they got, I mean, they're just so cynical.

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They show how broken the electorate's trust is.

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They basically fall into three grim categories.

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The first one is called the 9 -11 condition.

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This is the idea that a major terrorist attack

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would cause the country to rally around the flag,

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rally around the president. Which has happened

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before. Bush shot up to 86 percent approval after

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9 -11. But here's the dark twist. The readers

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aren't just predicting an attack. A lot of them

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are speculating that the administration might

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actually let it happen. To distract people from

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the Epstein story. Exactly. I mean, just think

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about the level of distrust you have to have

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to think the government would let Americans die

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just to get a polling bump. Wow. Okay, what was

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the second condition? The Trump stops being Trump

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condition. The fantasy scenario. Right. This

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is where he holds a fireside chat and admits

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to having daddy issues or, you know, suddenly

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decides to pass universal health care. Which

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the sources basically laugh off as impossible.

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Yeah, that one gets filed under never gonna happen.

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And the third? The death condition. This one

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is just grim. The theory here is twofold. Either

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the assassination of a popular right -wing figure

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could rally the base out of anger. Or, conversely,

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the president himself gets a terminal diagnosis.

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A sympathy bump. A sympathy bump. He's dying.

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Let's rally around him. The fact that the only

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paths to victory people can imagine involve mass

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death, assassinations, or terminal illness tells

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you everything about the national mood. It feels

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like the wheels are just coming off. And it's

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not just in the polls. The actual institutions,

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the courts, are starting to push back. We're

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seeing real institutional friction. The administration

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is trying to use the legal system to punish its

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enemies and, well, rewrite history, but it's

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not working. Let's talk about Janine Pirro. The

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U .S. attorney for D .C., she tried to indict

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six members of Congress for making a video that

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reminded soldiers not to follow legal orders.

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And how did that go for her? It was a goose egg.

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Zero. Not a single grand juror voted to indict.

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That is almost unheard of in the federal system.

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It's a total humiliation for the DOJ. And then

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there was that ruling about Independence Hall.

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Judge Cynthia Roof. And it's important. She's

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a George W. Bush appointee, not some liberal

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activist. The administration removed displays

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about slavery from Independence Hall, just erasing

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it. And she ordered them to put it all back.

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And she didn't hold back in her ruling. No, she

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went straight to Orwell, quoted 1984. She wrote,

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all history was a polypsist, scraped clean and

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reinscribed. She literally compared them to the

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Ministry of Truth. When a federal judge is quoting

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Orwell at you, things are not going well. Not

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at all. Speaking of Bush, George W. Bush himself

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actually resurfaced this week. Yeah, he joined

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Substack, of all things. After what, a decade

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of hibernating, as the sources called it? His

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first post was all about George Washington's

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integrity and self -restraint. Pretty clear dig

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of the current president. Oh, obviously. But

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the sources were pretty dismissive. The consensus

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was basically too little, too late. You can't

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be silent for years while your party transforms

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and then think a blog post is going to fix it.

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It feels like someone whispering in a hurricane.

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It really does. OK, before we finish, there's

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one last story. It's smaller, but I think it

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just perfectly captures the absurdity of this

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moment. Melania's movie. Ah, yes, the mandatory

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blockbuster. So the box office is not great.

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It's stalled at around 15 million. But now there

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are reports that an active duty commanding officer

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ordered his soldiers to go see the film. to boost

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the ticket sales. It's just, it's pathetic, but

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it's also illegal. You can't use your military

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authority to pump up the First Lady's box office

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numbers. The sources are calling for the officer

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to be court -martialed. As they should be. It

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just shows how the rot trickles down. You break

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the norms at the top, and you get some officer

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who thinks, I guess I have to force my troops

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to watch this movie to show I'm loyal. It feels

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like something out of a tin pot dictatorship.

00:12:27.179 --> 00:12:29.820
Exactly. So if we zoom out, what does all this

00:12:29.820 --> 00:12:33.220
mean? We've covered AI, death threats, polling,

00:12:33.539 --> 00:12:36.379
the courts. We're seeing a system under extreme

00:12:36.379 --> 00:12:39.659
stress. The executive branch is trying to consolidate

00:12:39.659 --> 00:12:43.299
power over everything, technology, history, even

00:12:43.299 --> 00:12:45.980
its own party members. But the system is kicking

00:12:45.980 --> 00:12:48.700
back. The tech companies are resisting. The courts

00:12:48.700 --> 00:12:52.080
are resisting. The voters are just exhausted.

00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:54.320
It feels like a standoff. Everyone is just waiting.

00:12:54.379 --> 00:12:56.080
And that's where the paranoia comes from. When

00:12:56.080 --> 00:12:57.960
you can't trust your colleagues, you can't trust

00:12:57.960 --> 00:12:59.820
your technology, you can't trust your government.

00:13:00.529 --> 00:13:03.210
Stability just becomes impossible. I want to

00:13:03.210 --> 00:13:05.090
leave our listeners with what I'm calling the

00:13:05.090 --> 00:13:08.590
Massey paradox. We have reached a point where

00:13:08.590 --> 00:13:11.970
a sitting U .S. congressman has to publicly announce

00:13:11.970 --> 00:13:14.789
the condition of his car's brakes just to do

00:13:14.789 --> 00:13:17.509
his job. He has to tell the world, my brakes

00:13:17.509 --> 00:13:20.149
are fine because the fear of being taken out

00:13:20.149 --> 00:13:23.289
by his own side is that real. It's unbelievable.

00:13:23.529 --> 00:13:25.970
So if the people in power, people with security

00:13:25.970 --> 00:13:28.970
details and public platforms are this afraid

00:13:28.970 --> 00:13:31.570
of each other. Where did that leave the rest

00:13:31.570 --> 00:13:33.690
of us? That's the question, isn't it? And I'm

00:13:33.690 --> 00:13:35.629
not sure anyone wants to know the answer. On

00:13:35.629 --> 00:13:37.769
that cheerful note, that's our deep dive. Thanks

00:13:37.769 --> 00:13:40.070
for listening. Stay safe out there. And maybe

00:13:40.070 --> 00:13:42.129
check your brakes. Couldn't hurt. See you next

00:13:42.129 --> 00:13:42.289
time.
