WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.600 Welcome back to The Deep Dive. It's Thursday, 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:05.679 February 12th, 2026. And you know, if you've 00:00:05.679 --> 00:00:08.140 been trying to follow the news this week, it 00:00:08.140 --> 00:00:09.980 really feels like you're watching two different 00:00:09.980 --> 00:00:12.589 realities on a split screen. It really is a split 00:00:12.589 --> 00:00:15.150 screen moment. It's jarring. I was going through 00:00:15.150 --> 00:00:17.550 the stack for today. We've got this political 00:00:17.550 --> 00:00:21.510 breakdown from Electoral Vote News and the Q1 00:00:21.510 --> 00:00:24.570 market report from Horizon Investments. And honestly, 00:00:24.570 --> 00:00:26.570 you would think they were describing two different 00:00:26.570 --> 00:00:28.550 planets. Exactly. On one side of the screen, 00:00:28.550 --> 00:00:30.710 you have Wall Street. And they are, let's be 00:00:30.710 --> 00:00:34.310 honest, throwing an absolute party, a rager. 00:00:34.530 --> 00:00:36.990 We're talking record corporate margins, this 00:00:36.990 --> 00:00:39.750 AI boom that's just changing everything, and 00:00:39.750 --> 00:00:42.039 money flowing everywhere. And then you flip to 00:00:42.039 --> 00:00:44.280 the other side of the screen, Washington D .C. 00:00:44.700 --> 00:00:46.659 And the building is basically on fire. We have 00:00:46.659 --> 00:00:48.100 a government shutdown that's supposed to happen 00:00:48.100 --> 00:00:51.460 tomorrow, which is fittingly Friday the 13th. 00:00:51.619 --> 00:00:53.259 You've got a Justice Department that seems to 00:00:53.259 --> 00:00:55.560 be at war with itself and political coalitions 00:00:55.560 --> 00:00:57.560 that looked solid just a couple of years ago. 00:00:58.020 --> 00:01:00.119 Now they're just fracturing in real time. So 00:01:00.119 --> 00:01:01.630 that's our mission today. We're going to try 00:01:01.630 --> 00:01:04.090 to make sense of these two realities. How can 00:01:04.090 --> 00:01:06.549 the economy be enjoying what one of our sources 00:01:06.549 --> 00:01:10.049 calls a tailwind Sunday? And we will get to that 00:01:10.049 --> 00:01:12.209 while the political system is seemingly tearing 00:01:12.209 --> 00:01:14.430 itself apart. And how long can that last? I mean, 00:01:14.489 --> 00:01:16.450 eventually those two screens have to collide. 00:01:16.709 --> 00:01:18.689 Economics is politics. Politics is economics. 00:01:18.790 --> 00:01:21.069 They always find each other. Let's start with 00:01:21.069 --> 00:01:24.069 the fire then. The political side, which is just 00:01:24.069 --> 00:01:26.230 vividly described in this electoral vote news 00:01:26.230 --> 00:01:28.370 report. Usually, you know, a committee hearing 00:01:28.370 --> 00:01:31.620 is where excitement. goes to die. But this House 00:01:31.620 --> 00:01:33.780 Judiciary Committee hearing with Attorney General 00:01:33.780 --> 00:01:37.189 Pam Bondi That was something else. Oh, not at 00:01:37.189 --> 00:01:39.409 all. Drama doesn't even begin to cover it. The 00:01:39.409 --> 00:01:42.090 source called it a five hour festival of accusations. 00:01:42.890 --> 00:01:44.629 But the key thing for you to understand is that 00:01:44.629 --> 00:01:47.150 this wasn't just, you know, the usual partisan 00:01:47.150 --> 00:01:49.930 back and forth Democrats yelling at Republicans. 00:01:50.049 --> 00:01:51.930 Right. This was friendly fire. This was different. 00:01:51.930 --> 00:01:54.750 Exactly. This was an internecine war. You had 00:01:54.750 --> 00:01:58.250 representative Thomas Massey, a Republican from 00:01:58.250 --> 00:02:01.349 Kentucky, a libertarian type, and he was going 00:02:01.349 --> 00:02:04.010 for the jugular against his own party's attorney 00:02:04.010 --> 00:02:06.590 general. And Mansi has been obsessed with the 00:02:06.590 --> 00:02:09.150 Epstein files for years, right? This is his issue. 00:02:09.370 --> 00:02:11.930 It is. He co -sponsored the law to get them released, 00:02:11.930 --> 00:02:15.229 and his accusation against Bondi was. It was 00:02:15.229 --> 00:02:17.590 incredibly specific and incredibly damaging. 00:02:18.150 --> 00:02:20.449 He claims she redacted the names of Epstein's 00:02:20.449 --> 00:02:23.490 clients, which the law explicitly forbids, but... 00:02:23.180 --> 00:02:25.360 but she failed to redact the names of some of 00:02:25.360 --> 00:02:27.860 the victims. Which, I mean, if that's true, that's 00:02:27.860 --> 00:02:30.580 not just a mistake. It's a massive, massive breach. 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:33.039 It's worse than a breach. Massey looked right 00:02:33.039 --> 00:02:34.759 at her and said, this is bigger than Watergate. 00:02:35.689 --> 00:02:38.030 He is accusing the Attorney General of the United 00:02:38.030 --> 00:02:40.789 States of a coverup. And when Bondi fired back, 00:02:40.930 --> 00:02:42.590 she didn't even argue the facts of the law. She 00:02:42.590 --> 00:02:45.430 just got personal, called him a failed politician. 00:02:45.669 --> 00:02:48.229 It just sounds so broken. But there was another 00:02:48.229 --> 00:02:50.150 moment in that hearing that really cut through 00:02:50.150 --> 00:02:53.009 all the noise for me. It involved Representative 00:02:53.009 --> 00:02:56.949 Pramila Jayapal and the victims themselves. Yeah, 00:02:56.949 --> 00:02:58.430 this is the part of the source material that 00:02:58.430 --> 00:03:02.330 just stops you cold. There were 11 of Epstein's 00:03:02.330 --> 00:03:04.310 victims sitting right there in the hearing room. 00:03:05.009 --> 00:03:08.150 Right behind Bondi. And Jayapal asked them to 00:03:08.150 --> 00:03:10.409 stand up if they hadn't been able to get a single 00:03:10.409 --> 00:03:13.090 meeting with the Department of Justice. And they 00:03:13.090 --> 00:03:15.409 all stood. Every single one. And then Jayapal 00:03:15.409 --> 00:03:17.430 asked Bondi to just turn around to face them 00:03:17.430 --> 00:03:19.789 and apologize. And she refused. She refused. 00:03:19.830 --> 00:03:21.610 She wouldn't even look at them. She called it 00:03:21.610 --> 00:03:23.870 getting in the gutter with these theatrics. To 00:03:23.870 --> 00:03:26.030 call victims standing in a congressional hearing 00:03:26.030 --> 00:03:29.289 theatrics, that tells you everything you need 00:03:29.289 --> 00:03:31.590 to know about the atmosphere in D .C. right now. 00:03:31.689 --> 00:03:34.650 it's just completely paralyzed. And that paralysis 00:03:34.650 --> 00:03:39.050 has a very real, very specific deadline. Midnight 00:03:39.050 --> 00:03:42.250 tomorrow, Friday the 13th, the government shuts 00:03:42.250 --> 00:03:44.289 down. We've all seen shutdowns before. They usually 00:03:44.289 --> 00:03:46.710 kick the can down the road. But the source suggests 00:03:46.710 --> 00:03:48.539 this one is different. Why? It's about which 00:03:48.539 --> 00:03:51.319 agencies are involved. This isn't a total shutdown. 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:53.860 It's targeted at the Department of Homeland Security. 00:03:54.500 --> 00:03:57.560 But here's the little detail that matters. ICE, 00:03:57.879 --> 00:04:00.580 immigration and customs enforcement is funded 00:04:00.580 --> 00:04:03.979 separately so they stay open. OK, so the border 00:04:03.979 --> 00:04:06.400 operations continue, which makes the Democrats 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.840 angry because they want to use the budget to 00:04:08.840 --> 00:04:13.050 control that. Correct. But The TSA, the Transportation 00:04:13.050 --> 00:04:15.270 Security Administration, they are not funded 00:04:15.270 --> 00:04:17.129 separately. So they shut down. They shut down. 00:04:17.209 --> 00:04:19.930 Okay, so if I'm flying this weekend, I'm just 00:04:19.930 --> 00:04:21.990 dealing with longer lines because the agents 00:04:21.990 --> 00:04:24.870 aren't getting paid. It's an annoyance, but... 00:04:24.860 --> 00:04:27.379 Is it a crisis? It becomes a crisis when you 00:04:27.379 --> 00:04:30.100 look at what else is on those planes. The source 00:04:30.100 --> 00:04:32.740 highlights this huge economic vulnerability that 00:04:32.740 --> 00:04:34.879 I think most people don't think about. It's not 00:04:34.879 --> 00:04:37.300 just passengers in suitcases. Passenger jets 00:04:37.300 --> 00:04:39.720 carry a massive percentage of our nation's air 00:04:39.720 --> 00:04:43.079 cargo. Oh, right. Like perishables, mail. Perishables, 00:04:43.459 --> 00:04:45.819 fruits, vegetables, the U .S. mail, critical 00:04:45.819 --> 00:04:47.819 medical supplies, all of that is in the hold 00:04:47.819 --> 00:04:49.800 of the plane you're sitting on. So if the TSA 00:04:49.800 --> 00:04:52.439 agents stop showing up? Which they do, historically, 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:55.100 when they don't get paid. then the passenger 00:04:55.100 --> 00:04:57.079 flights get grounded. And when those flights 00:04:57.079 --> 00:04:59.620 get grounded, the supply chain for all that essential 00:04:59.620 --> 00:05:03.240 stuff just snaps. It's an economic wrecking ball. 00:05:03.500 --> 00:05:05.360 And that's a perfect example of the two screens 00:05:05.360 --> 00:05:08.279 colliding. The political dysfunction directly 00:05:08.279 --> 00:05:10.990 threatening the economic engine. It is. And this 00:05:10.990 --> 00:05:13.889 brings us to what the source calls the Trump 00:05:13.889 --> 00:05:17.509 V2 .0 coalition. You know, he built this very 00:05:17.509 --> 00:05:20.250 broad kind of contradictory group to get back 00:05:20.250 --> 00:05:24.470 into power in 2024. And now in 2026, it seems 00:05:24.470 --> 00:05:26.769 like the bill is coming due. A lot of people 00:05:26.769 --> 00:05:28.889 are having buyer's remorse. Let's start with 00:05:28.889 --> 00:05:31.670 the crypto folks. I mean, that was a huge get 00:05:31.670 --> 00:05:34.529 for him demographically. They were promised everything. 00:05:34.629 --> 00:05:36.910 They were promised the moon and they got, well, 00:05:37.089 --> 00:05:39.360 gravity. Bitcoin has fallen from a high of one 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:41.019 hundred and twenty five thousand dollars down 00:05:41.019 --> 00:05:43.199 to around seventy thousand. Volatility is part 00:05:43.199 --> 00:05:44.860 of the game, though. They know that they do. 00:05:44.860 --> 00:05:47.220 But it's the political betrayal that really stings 00:05:47.220 --> 00:05:50.100 them. They were promised tax free gains. That 00:05:50.100 --> 00:05:53.360 was the phrase. And instead, instead, the regulations 00:05:53.360 --> 00:05:56.079 are still a mess and the tax man is still coming. 00:05:56.959 --> 00:05:59.139 As one of Mr. In the report said, I didn't realize 00:05:59.139 --> 00:06:02.319 he was removing the gains. Ouch. And it's not 00:06:02.319 --> 00:06:05.560 just the finance guys. The source points to. 00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:09.560 The populist podcasters. The Joe Rogans of the 00:06:09.560 --> 00:06:12.779 world. Critical. These guys were so important 00:06:12.779 --> 00:06:16.779 in mobilizing younger male voters. But what was 00:06:16.779 --> 00:06:19.540 their number one issue? It wasn't tax cuts. It 00:06:19.540 --> 00:06:22.720 was transparency. The Epstein files. The unredacted 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:25.839 Epstein files. They saw it as the key to burning 00:06:25.839 --> 00:06:28.259 down a corrupt establishment. And as we just 00:06:28.259 --> 00:06:30.600 discussed at that Bondi hearing. They're not 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:32.879 getting them. So now you have these huge media 00:06:32.879 --> 00:06:35.319 figures with bigger audiences than cable news 00:06:35.319 --> 00:06:37.399 who are starting to feel like they were conned. 00:06:37.439 --> 00:06:39.500 And if they turn on the administration, that 00:06:39.500 --> 00:06:42.259 base of support can erode really, really fast. 00:06:42.399 --> 00:06:44.199 And you can add farmers to that list, right? 00:06:44.420 --> 00:06:46.060 They're getting hit by tariffs. Right. They're 00:06:46.060 --> 00:06:49.220 being offered about $12 billion in aid. But farmers 00:06:49.220 --> 00:06:51.740 are a proud group. They don't want subsidies. 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:53.500 They call it welfare. They just want to sell 00:06:53.500 --> 00:06:55.459 their crops. They want to sell their soybeans. 00:06:55.579 --> 00:06:57.500 They want trade markets, not a government check. 00:06:57.779 --> 00:07:00.990 And then you have... Minority voters who were 00:07:00.990 --> 00:07:03.610 promised that prices would come down. That hasn't 00:07:03.610 --> 00:07:05.850 really happened. No. And on top of that, you 00:07:05.850 --> 00:07:09.589 have the ICE raids alienating a lot of Latino 00:07:09.589 --> 00:07:12.310 voters who might have been persuadable on economic 00:07:12.310 --> 00:07:14.970 grounds. So you have this fracturing coalition, 00:07:15.389 --> 00:07:18.389 a paralyzed Congress, a shutdown threat. I mean, 00:07:18.490 --> 00:07:20.269 if you only looked at that political screen, 00:07:20.389 --> 00:07:22.350 you'd think the whole country was falling apart. 00:07:22.430 --> 00:07:25.779 And yet. And yet we switch screens, we open the 00:07:25.779 --> 00:07:28.720 report from Horizon Investments, and suddenly 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:31.379 the sun is shining, the birds are singing, and 00:07:31.379 --> 00:07:34.079 money is literally falling from the sky. It is 00:07:34.079 --> 00:07:36.139 the most jarring thing I've seen in a long time. 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:39.079 The chief investment officer at Horizon actually 00:07:39.079 --> 00:07:41.759 calls it a Tailwind Sunday. I love that phrase. 00:07:41.819 --> 00:07:43.699 It does make me a little hungry. So let's break 00:07:43.699 --> 00:07:46.079 it down. What are the ingredients in this tailwind 00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:48.060 Sunday? OK, so you start with the raw numbers. 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:52.079 Nominal GDP is tracking at seven to eight percent. 00:07:52.160 --> 00:07:54.139 And for context, people should know four or five 00:07:54.139 --> 00:07:56.319 percent is usually considered very strong. Eight 00:07:56.319 --> 00:07:58.939 percent is. It's scorching hot. I mean, it's 00:07:58.939 --> 00:08:01.139 the kind of growth you'd expect to see in a developing 00:08:01.139 --> 00:08:04.439 country. Not a mature economy like the U .S. 00:08:04.819 --> 00:08:07.899 On top of that, corporate margins are at all 00:08:07.899 --> 00:08:11.040 time highs. And we're in an earnings season where 00:08:11.040 --> 00:08:14.720 80 % of companies are beating expectations. So 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:17.100 where is all this coming from? The report uses 00:08:17.100 --> 00:08:20.100 this term I mentioned, fiscal stimmy. It sounds 00:08:20.100 --> 00:08:22.160 like slang for the COVID checks. Is that what 00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:24.540 they mean? Sort of, but on a much bigger scale. 00:08:24.579 --> 00:08:27.019 They actually identify two types of stimmy. First, 00:08:27.100 --> 00:08:29.379 there is public fiscal stimmy. That's just the 00:08:29.379 --> 00:08:31.319 federal government running a massive deficit, 00:08:31.379 --> 00:08:34.639 about 5 % to 6 % of GDP. So even with all this 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:36.759 shutdown talk, the government is just pumping 00:08:36.759 --> 00:08:39.299 cash into the economy. OK, and what's the second 00:08:39.299 --> 00:08:42.019 type? This is the really interesting part. Private 00:08:42.019 --> 00:08:45.820 Fiscal Stimmy. And what that means is AI CapEx. 00:08:46.179 --> 00:08:48.759 Capital Expenditure. So the big tech companies 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:51.259 spending billions. It's not just big tech. It's 00:08:51.259 --> 00:08:55.279 everyone. Microsoft, Google, yes, but also. industrial 00:08:55.279 --> 00:08:58.120 firms, manufacturing firms. And this isn't just 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:00.460 buying software. This is pouring concrete and 00:09:00.460 --> 00:09:03.480 steel. They're building data centers, upgrading 00:09:03.480 --> 00:09:06.659 power grids, designing custom chips. It's a massive 00:09:06.659 --> 00:09:09.120 infrastructure build out. The Horizon report 00:09:09.120 --> 00:09:11.360 makes this really interesting comparison. They 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:13.100 say we shouldn't think of AI like the Internet. 00:09:13.419 --> 00:09:15.179 We should think of it like electricity. That 00:09:15.179 --> 00:09:17.600 is such a crucial distinction. The Internet was 00:09:17.600 --> 00:09:20.960 a communication layer. Electricity. That's a 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:23.700 power source that runs everything. And the argument 00:09:23.700 --> 00:09:26.340 is that AI is diffusing through the whole economy, 00:09:26.620 --> 00:09:29.240 just like electricity did in the 1920s. It's 00:09:29.240 --> 00:09:31.820 becoming the new baseline for how all work gets 00:09:31.820 --> 00:09:33.860 done. And are we actually seeing that in the 00:09:33.860 --> 00:09:35.659 productivity numbers yet, or is it still just 00:09:35.659 --> 00:09:38.379 hype? It's finally showing up. The report points 00:09:38.379 --> 00:09:41.460 specifically to legal work, medical diagnostics, 00:09:41.519 --> 00:09:44.700 and writing code. In those fields, one person 00:09:44.700 --> 00:09:46.980 can now do the work of three. And that drives 00:09:46.980 --> 00:09:49.240 up margins, which drives up profits, which drives 00:09:49.240 --> 00:09:51.039 up the stock market. They also mention these 00:09:51.039 --> 00:09:52.879 green shoots in manufacturing, and they tie it 00:09:52.879 --> 00:09:57.320 to something called the OBBA. Slaps. Yes. The 00:09:57.320 --> 00:10:00.779 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That is not the official 00:10:00.779 --> 00:10:03.419 name, is it? I'm afraid it is. You have to appreciate 00:10:03.419 --> 00:10:06.429 the branding, I guess. But silly name aside, 00:10:06.690 --> 00:10:09.090 the data shows it's actually working. Global 00:10:09.090 --> 00:10:12.250 manufacturing PMIs, which are basically surveys 00:10:12.250 --> 00:10:14.429 asking factory bosses if they're buying more 00:10:14.429 --> 00:10:16.669 stuff, are expanding for the first time in four 00:10:16.669 --> 00:10:18.870 years. OK, so the Sunday is looking pretty good. 00:10:19.509 --> 00:10:22.870 But every investment report has a but. What are 00:10:22.870 --> 00:10:25.289 the headwinds? What could spoil the dessert? 00:10:25.409 --> 00:10:27.409 Two big ones. The first one connects right back 00:10:27.409 --> 00:10:30.850 to the political screen. Immigration. The political 00:10:30.850 --> 00:10:33.049 crackdown on the border, all the raids, it's 00:10:33.049 --> 00:10:35.389 choking off the supply of labor. Right. If your 00:10:35.389 --> 00:10:38.389 economy is growing at 8%, but your workforce 00:10:38.389 --> 00:10:40.769 isn't growing with it. You get bottlenecks, you 00:10:40.769 --> 00:10:42.710 get inflation, you can't build all those data 00:10:42.710 --> 00:10:44.250 centers if you don't have people to pour the 00:10:44.250 --> 00:10:46.450 concrete. Makes sense. What's the second risk? 00:10:46.769 --> 00:10:49.750 Consensus risk, meaning everyone agrees. The 00:10:49.750 --> 00:10:51.830 consensus on Wall Street right now is that a 00:10:51.830 --> 00:10:54.220 recession is basically impossible. And the report 00:10:54.220 --> 00:10:57.440 notes that whenever 100 % of investors are on 00:10:57.440 --> 00:10:59.620 one side of the boat, the boat gets very, very 00:10:59.620 --> 00:11:02.279 tippy. Complacency. Exactly. Complacency is the 00:11:02.279 --> 00:11:05.639 enemy. It means if a shock does hit, like, say, 00:11:06.179 --> 00:11:08.299 a supply chain collapse from a TSA shutdown, 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:10.980 the market is absolutely not priced for it. And 00:11:10.980 --> 00:11:12.840 this is where the two screens just crash into 00:11:12.840 --> 00:11:14.820 each other, right? It's not just that the politics 00:11:14.820 --> 00:11:17.500 can hurt the economy. The money from the economy 00:11:17.500 --> 00:11:20.259 is actively warping the politics. Precisely. 00:11:20.480 --> 00:11:22.799 And I think the best example of this collision 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:25.539 that the source points to is the governor's race 00:11:25.539 --> 00:11:28.539 in California. Yeah, the report frames this race 00:11:28.539 --> 00:11:31.419 as a proxy war. You have a crowded field of well 00:11:31.419 --> 00:11:34.259 -known Democrats, Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra. 00:11:34.279 --> 00:11:36.419 But then you have Matt Mahan, the mayor of San 00:11:36.419 --> 00:11:38.799 Jose. And Mahan is, without a doubt, the tech 00:11:38.799 --> 00:11:41.379 candidate. He's raising money at a staggering 00:11:41.379 --> 00:11:44.360 rate. $10 million in the blink of an eye. Why? 00:11:44.860 --> 00:11:47.279 What is the one issue that unlocks all that cash? 00:11:47.639 --> 00:11:51.259 One issue. A wealth tax. He's against it. And 00:11:51.259 --> 00:11:53.519 the tech billionaires in Silicon Valley are terrified 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:55.919 of it. So they're just pouring the profits from 00:11:55.919 --> 00:11:59.500 this AI boom directly into his campaign to protect 00:11:59.500 --> 00:12:02.740 those exact profits. It's purely transactional. 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:06.519 But where it gets really strange, strange bedfellows 00:12:06.519 --> 00:12:09.899 territory, is on the issue of regulating AI itself. 00:12:10.200 --> 00:12:12.659 Right, because usually big tech wants government 00:12:12.659 --> 00:12:15.519 to just stay out of its way. Don't regulate us. 00:12:15.860 --> 00:12:18.980 Not this time. The source points out that companies 00:12:18.980 --> 00:12:22.139 like Palantir, figures like Peter Thiel, they 00:12:22.139 --> 00:12:24.059 are spending a lot of money on the midterms, 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:27.000 but they are pushing for a federal AI law. That 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:30.039 seems completely backward. Why would Peter Thiel 00:12:30.039 --> 00:12:33.179 want the government to regulate AI. Because they 00:12:33.179 --> 00:12:35.460 want a weak federal law. What they're really 00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:38.059 terrified of is states like California or New 00:12:38.059 --> 00:12:40.779 York passing a really strict citizen bill of 00:12:40.779 --> 00:12:43.679 rights. Ah, something that might ban facial recognition 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:46.440 or deep fakes. Exactly. So if they can get the 00:12:46.440 --> 00:12:48.460 federal government to pass a weak law that includes 00:12:48.460 --> 00:12:51.360 a line saying this preempts all state laws. And 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:53.159 then the strong state laws get wiped off the 00:12:53.159 --> 00:12:55.279 map before they're even written. It's a shield. 00:12:55.639 --> 00:12:58.379 They want a wet noodle of a federal law to protect 00:12:58.379 --> 00:13:01.700 them from real regulation. And this has created 00:13:01.700 --> 00:13:04.379 probably the most bizarre political alignment 00:13:04.379 --> 00:13:08.000 of 2026. You have Representative Raja Krishnamoorthy, 00:13:08.100 --> 00:13:10.720 who is a progressive Democrat, and Governor Ron 00:13:10.720 --> 00:13:14.519 DeSantis, a hard -right Republican, on the exact 00:13:14.519 --> 00:13:16.299 same side. And they're both fighting against 00:13:16.299 --> 00:13:19.179 big tech on this. Yes. They both want strict 00:13:19.179 --> 00:13:21.940 AI regulation. They want to protect citizens 00:13:21.940 --> 00:13:25.039 from data harvesting and deepfakes. It just shows 00:13:25.039 --> 00:13:28.159 you how this technology is completely scrambling 00:13:28.159 --> 00:13:30.879 the old left -right political map. And while 00:13:30.879 --> 00:13:32.759 the politicians are scrambling, the legal system 00:13:32.759 --> 00:13:35.100 is kind of quietly dismantling the foundations 00:13:35.100 --> 00:13:37.340 of democracy. Right. We have to touch on the 00:13:37.340 --> 00:13:39.600 legal threads in the Electoral Vote News Report. 00:13:39.740 --> 00:13:41.440 This is the stuff that's so important, but it 00:13:41.440 --> 00:13:42.980 doesn't make the cable news headlines because 00:13:42.980 --> 00:13:46.620 it's boring legal procedure. But it changes the 00:13:46.620 --> 00:13:49.399 entire game. The big case to watch is Louisiana 00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:52.299 v. Calais. What's at stake there? The entire 00:13:52.299 --> 00:13:55.399 Voting Rights Act, the VRA. The argument being 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:57.659 made to the Supreme Court is that the VRA forces 00:13:57.659 --> 00:14:00.240 states to discriminate based on race because 00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:03.379 it mandates the creation of these majority minority 00:14:03.379 --> 00:14:05.899 districts. If the court accepts that argument, 00:14:06.179 --> 00:14:08.879 the VRA is effectively dead. That would just 00:14:08.879 --> 00:14:12.100 undo 60 years of precedent. It would. But. There's 00:14:12.100 --> 00:14:14.580 an even sneakier legal threat, a ruling from 00:14:14.580 --> 00:14:16.620 the Eighth Circuit Court about private enforcement. 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:18.740 OK, that sounds really technical. What's the 00:14:18.740 --> 00:14:21.620 impact of that? So historically, if your voting 00:14:21.620 --> 00:14:24.399 rights were violated, you could sue. The NAACP 00:14:24.399 --> 00:14:28.039 could sue the ACLU, any private citizen. That's 00:14:28.039 --> 00:14:30.279 how the law was enforced. The Eighth Circuit 00:14:30.279 --> 00:14:32.600 ruled that only the U .S. Attorney General can 00:14:32.600 --> 00:14:35.659 bring those lawsuits now. If the attorney general 00:14:35.659 --> 00:14:37.620 works for a president who doesn't want to enforce 00:14:37.620 --> 00:14:40.960 the law, or an AG like Bondi who seems to be 00:14:40.960 --> 00:14:43.299 in a constant state of crisis. Then no one sues. 00:14:43.639 --> 00:14:45.620 And the law just becomes a zombie. It's still 00:14:45.620 --> 00:14:48.000 in the books, but it has no teeth. It's unenforceable. 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.620 That is terrifying. It's a structural change. 00:14:51.080 --> 00:14:53.500 And speaking of structure, the source does some 00:14:53.500 --> 00:14:56.259 Senate math that paints a really bleak picture 00:14:56.259 --> 00:14:59.120 for the Democrats long term. Yeah, it's a pure 00:14:59.120 --> 00:15:01.879 geography problem. You need 50 or 51 seats to 00:15:01.879 --> 00:15:04.690 control the Senate. Democrats are looking at 00:15:04.690 --> 00:15:07.809 a map where only 19 states have consistently 00:15:07.809 --> 00:15:09.909 voted against Trump. Which only gets them to 00:15:09.909 --> 00:15:12.870 38 senators. Exactly. So they are starting with 00:15:12.870 --> 00:15:15.769 a huge structural deficit. To get to 50, they 00:15:15.769 --> 00:15:18.429 have to win in states that are, you know, naturally 00:15:18.429 --> 00:15:20.850 hostile political territory for them. And the 00:15:20.850 --> 00:15:22.629 source mentions that this could lead to some 00:15:22.629 --> 00:15:26.230 really wild, drastic ideas being taken seriously. 00:15:26.330 --> 00:15:28.730 Yeah, these are the break glass in case of emergency 00:15:28.730 --> 00:15:31.830 ideas. One that's floated is splitting California 00:15:31.830 --> 00:15:34.990 into two separate states, Northern and Southern 00:15:34.990 --> 00:15:37.409 California. That sounds insane, but then you 00:15:37.409 --> 00:15:39.450 remember we have two Dakotas, two Carolinas. 00:15:39.649 --> 00:15:42.110 Exactly, and that would instantly give the Democrats 00:15:42.110 --> 00:15:45.330 two more senators. Another idea is to expand 00:15:45.330 --> 00:15:47.830 the House of Representatives to a thousand members. 00:15:48.110 --> 00:15:51.330 A thousand? Wow. The idea there is to dilute 00:15:51.330 --> 00:15:54.450 the power of the Electoral College. More representatives 00:15:54.450 --> 00:15:56.870 means the small red states lose their outsized 00:15:56.870 --> 00:15:59.289 advantage in presidential races. The fact that 00:15:59.289 --> 00:16:01.429 these are even being discussed by serious people 00:16:01.429 --> 00:16:03.509 just shows you how much strain the system is 00:16:03.509 --> 00:16:06.110 under. It is. The economy is speeding up and 00:16:06.110 --> 00:16:08.669 the political structure is seizing up. So to 00:16:08.669 --> 00:16:10.429 try and synthesize all this for you listening, 00:16:10.850 --> 00:16:13.529 you've got this tailwind Sunday economy. It's 00:16:13.529 --> 00:16:17.179 hot. It's fueled by AI and government cash. At 00:16:17.179 --> 00:16:20.700 the same time, you have a political class engaged 00:16:20.700 --> 00:16:23.620 in what the source calls a festival of accusations. 00:16:24.079 --> 00:16:27.179 While the legal guardrails of democracy are being 00:16:27.179 --> 00:16:30.960 quietly unscrewed bolt by bolt, it creates this 00:16:30.960 --> 00:16:33.679 massive cognitive dissonance, you know? If you 00:16:33.679 --> 00:16:35.700 look at your 401k, you feel great. If you turn 00:16:35.700 --> 00:16:38.159 on the news, you feel sick. And there's one final 00:16:38.159 --> 00:16:40.559 story from the source material that I think just 00:16:40.559 --> 00:16:43.000 perfectly chillingly captures this moment. It's 00:16:43.000 --> 00:16:45.360 about the gravel wars and the Gallup poll. Yeah, 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:47.759 this detail is it's truly the most dystopian 00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:50.289 thing in the whole stack. Gallup, the gold standard 00:16:50.289 --> 00:16:52.110 of polling, they've measured presidential approval 00:16:52.110 --> 00:16:54.629 for decades. They've stopped. They just quit? 00:16:54.909 --> 00:16:58.250 They quit. The report explains that Trump's approval 00:16:58.250 --> 00:17:01.450 rating fell from 47 percent to 37 percent. He 00:17:01.450 --> 00:17:04.450 was furious. He attacked them. So rather than 00:17:04.450 --> 00:17:07.250 fight him or worse, be tempted to fudge the numbers 00:17:07.250 --> 00:17:10.049 to make him happy, Gallup just opted out. They 00:17:10.049 --> 00:17:12.069 just decided we aren't going to measure this 00:17:12.069 --> 00:17:14.750 anymore. That's profound. I mean, we spend this 00:17:14.750 --> 00:17:16.890 whole time talking about headwinds and tailwinds 00:17:16.890 --> 00:17:21.109 and all this data. But if our primary instruments 00:17:21.109 --> 00:17:24.390 for measuring reality, like an approval poll 00:17:24.390 --> 00:17:26.589 or maybe economic data next, if those instruments 00:17:26.589 --> 00:17:28.470 just get turned off because the results are unpopular. 00:17:28.750 --> 00:17:31.190 Then we are flying blind. We're in a plane that's 00:17:31.190 --> 00:17:34.150 accelerating at 8 % GDP growth. The pilots are 00:17:34.150 --> 00:17:36.089 fighting in the cockpit. And someone just taped 00:17:36.089 --> 00:17:37.809 over the altitude gauge because they didn't like 00:17:37.809 --> 00:17:40.470 what it said. That is a very sobering thought 00:17:40.470 --> 00:17:42.809 to end on. It is. I think the takeaway for you 00:17:42.809 --> 00:17:45.230 listening is that in 2026, you can't just rely 00:17:45.230 --> 00:17:47.670 on the official summary anymore. You have to 00:17:47.670 --> 00:17:50.289 look at the raw data yourself, the cargo flights, 00:17:50.450 --> 00:17:52.910 the court filings, because the main dashboard 00:17:52.910 --> 00:17:55.049 might just go blank. Keep an eye on that shutdown 00:17:55.049 --> 00:17:57.750 deadline tomorrow and try to enjoy the Sunday 00:17:57.750 --> 00:18:00.829 before it all melts. Thanks for diving deep with 00:18:00.829 --> 00:18:02.029 us. See you next time.