WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.080 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. It's Tuesday, 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:05.839 February 10th, 2026. And, you know, if you've 00:00:05.839 --> 00:00:08.119 been refreshing your newsfeed lately, and then 00:00:08.119 --> 00:00:10.119 maybe you glance over at your investment portfolio 00:00:10.119 --> 00:00:12.580 and you just feel like you're living in two completely 00:00:12.580 --> 00:00:15.500 separate realities, you're not alone. Not at 00:00:15.500 --> 00:00:19.000 all. It's a definite split screen world right 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:20.940 now. It really feels like everything's operating 00:00:20.940 --> 00:00:23.100 on two totally different frequencies. Right. 00:00:23.559 --> 00:00:25.699 On one channel, the political one, you have this 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:28.579 I mean, there's absolutely deafening noise. We're 00:00:28.579 --> 00:00:31.199 talking about really bizarre social media posts 00:00:31.199 --> 00:00:34.619 about Canadian ice hockey. We've got looming 00:00:34.619 --> 00:00:36.719 government shutdowns that could literally ground 00:00:36.719 --> 00:00:39.899 flights, and then this plan to, well, basically 00:00:39.899 --> 00:00:41.659 dismantle the civil services. We know it. It 00:00:41.659 --> 00:00:44.119 just feels chaotic. I mean, you flip the channel 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:47.179 over to the economy, and it's almost eerily quiet. 00:00:47.359 --> 00:00:50.140 It is quiet. Yeah, calm might even be under selling 00:00:50.140 --> 00:00:52.500 it. I mean, the economic engine is actually humming 00:00:52.500 --> 00:00:54.340 along. We're seeing what everyone talked about 00:00:54.340 --> 00:00:57.320 that, you know, fabled soft landing. It seems 00:00:57.320 --> 00:00:59.520 to be happening in real time. Inflation's stable. 00:00:59.640 --> 00:01:02.899 Gold is on a tear and the markets are. Well, 00:01:03.219 --> 00:01:05.379 they seem to be ignoring Washington completely. 00:01:05.640 --> 00:01:07.459 And that's exactly what we're going to try and 00:01:07.459 --> 00:01:09.900 do in this deep dive. We have to reconcile these 00:01:09.900 --> 00:01:12.900 two worlds. How can the political machine be 00:01:12.900 --> 00:01:15.819 grinding its gears so loudly while the economic 00:01:15.819 --> 00:01:18.390 engine is just, you know, running so smoothly. 00:01:18.750 --> 00:01:21.890 To do that, we've got a really fascinating stack 00:01:21.890 --> 00:01:23.790 of sources. We're looking at political analysis 00:01:23.790 --> 00:01:26.650 from electoral vote news, and we're putting that 00:01:26.650 --> 00:01:28.730 right up against the hard data from the Mark 00:01:28.730 --> 00:01:31.609 of You monthly report for January 2026. We're 00:01:31.609 --> 00:01:34.430 going to try and separate the noise from the 00:01:34.430 --> 00:01:36.730 signal. Start with the noise. Yeah. Or maybe 00:01:36.730 --> 00:01:38.709 it's more of an omen, as one of our sources called 00:01:38.709 --> 00:01:41.489 it, because the landscape for the 2026 midterms 00:01:41.489 --> 00:01:45.290 is starting to look very specific and frankly 00:01:45.290 --> 00:01:47.719 pretty scary for the Republican Party. It is. 00:01:48.040 --> 00:01:49.959 Usually when we talk about political momentum, 00:01:50.180 --> 00:01:53.319 it's all a bit squishy. It's vibes. It's polling. 00:01:53.780 --> 00:01:56.180 But here we have some really hard data from a 00:01:56.180 --> 00:01:58.180 special election that just happened down in Louisiana. 00:01:58.480 --> 00:02:00.040 And normally I'd be the first one to say, look, 00:02:00.099 --> 00:02:01.840 it's a special election. Don't read too much 00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:05.040 into it. Turnouts low. Local issues can take 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:07.480 over. But the numbers here are just so strange 00:02:07.480 --> 00:02:09.569 that you have to stop and look. They're a statistical 00:02:09.569 --> 00:02:12.789 outlier. So this was a race for a state legislature 00:02:12.789 --> 00:02:16.129 seat. And the context is everything here. This 00:02:16.129 --> 00:02:19.770 district, it's deep red. Donald Trump won this 00:02:19.770 --> 00:02:23.689 exact district by 13 points back in 2024. So 00:02:23.689 --> 00:02:26.620 on paper, this should be a slam dunk. A safe 00:02:26.620 --> 00:02:29.379 seat. Exactly. The Republican candidate, Brad 00:02:29.379 --> 00:02:31.539 Daigle, should have walked into this thing. The 00:02:31.539 --> 00:02:33.939 demographics were all on his side. But instead, 00:02:34.099 --> 00:02:36.599 the Democrat, Chasity Verrett Martinez, she didn't 00:02:36.599 --> 00:02:39.639 just win. She crushed him. The final vote was 00:02:39.639 --> 00:02:42.159 62 percent to 38 percent. Wait, hold on. Let 00:02:42.159 --> 00:02:45.060 me just process that math. So Trump wins by 13 00:02:45.060 --> 00:02:47.319 points and not even two years later, the Democrat 00:02:47.319 --> 00:02:49.740 wins the same district by 24. Yeah, it represents 00:02:49.740 --> 00:02:54.710 a 37 point swing. That feels. I mean, in today's 00:02:54.710 --> 00:02:56.689 polarized world, people usually just stick to 00:02:56.689 --> 00:02:59.389 their political tribes. Was there some huge local 00:02:59.389 --> 00:03:02.569 factor? Did a Republican candidate have a massive 00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:05.569 scandal or something? That's the thing. No. From 00:03:05.569 --> 00:03:07.689 everything we can see, it was a pretty standard 00:03:07.689 --> 00:03:10.610 race. And that's why, according to the source, 00:03:11.150 --> 00:03:14.139 GOP strategists are, and I'm quoting, Panic stricken. 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:16.460 I can imagine. Because if this was just one weird 00:03:16.460 --> 00:03:18.860 result, you could write it off. Bad candidate, 00:03:19.139 --> 00:03:21.800 local issue, whatever. But when you look at the 00:03:21.800 --> 00:03:25.159 broader data, since Trump retook office, Democrats 00:03:25.159 --> 00:03:27.960 have flipped 27 state legislature seats across 00:03:27.960 --> 00:03:31.280 the country. OK, 27. And how many have the Republicans 00:03:31.280 --> 00:03:33.659 flipped in that same time? Zero. Zero. Not a 00:03:33.659 --> 00:03:36.360 single one. The score is literally 27 to zero. 00:03:36.460 --> 00:03:39.680 Wow. OK, so that's not a slug. That's a pattern. 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:42.400 That's a structural shift. So the question becomes, 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:45.340 why? The economy, like we said, is doing pretty 00:03:45.340 --> 00:03:48.360 well. And the old rule is, it's the economy, 00:03:48.419 --> 00:03:51.240 stupid. A good economy should protect the party 00:03:51.240 --> 00:03:54.960 in power. That link seems to be broken. The analysis 00:03:54.960 --> 00:03:57.960 in our source suggests the electorate just isn't 00:03:57.960 --> 00:03:59.919 rewarding the president for the stock market, 00:04:00.479 --> 00:04:03.580 probably because the political chaos is just... 00:04:03.210 --> 00:04:05.689 It's exhausting. There's no rally around the 00:04:05.689 --> 00:04:08.050 flag effect happening. Right. The source argues 00:04:08.050 --> 00:04:10.590 there's really no obvious lever the administration 00:04:10.590 --> 00:04:13.409 can pull to stop the bleeding before the midterms. 00:04:13.509 --> 00:04:15.590 I mean, they can't fix the economy because the 00:04:15.590 --> 00:04:18.329 economy is already, you know, fixed. So voters 00:04:18.329 --> 00:04:21.470 are rejecting the chaos. Yeah. But looking at 00:04:21.470 --> 00:04:24.110 our next source, it seems like the administration's 00:04:24.110 --> 00:04:26.769 reaction isn't to change the term, but to change 00:04:26.769 --> 00:04:29.350 the entire government from the inside out. We 00:04:29.350 --> 00:04:32.589 have to talk about Schedule F. or as they've 00:04:32.589 --> 00:04:35.209 rebranded it, a scheduled policy career. This 00:04:35.209 --> 00:04:37.470 is a heavy one, but it's so important to understand. 00:04:37.589 --> 00:04:39.470 This isn't just about changing some staff. This 00:04:39.470 --> 00:04:42.209 is like rewiring the entire operating system 00:04:42.209 --> 00:04:44.110 of the U .S. government. Okay, so give us the 00:04:44.110 --> 00:04:45.990 simple version. What does this schedule change 00:04:45.990 --> 00:04:49.790 actually do to, say, a normal government worker? 00:04:50.129 --> 00:04:53.550 Okay, so... Since the 1880s, the U .S. has had 00:04:53.550 --> 00:04:56.250 a merit -based civil service. The whole idea 00:04:56.250 --> 00:05:00.029 was to stop the spoil system where a new president 00:05:00.029 --> 00:05:02.550 comes in and just fires everyone and hires his 00:05:02.550 --> 00:05:05.550 friends. Right. The Pendleton Act. Exactly. It 00:05:05.550 --> 00:05:07.810 said, you know, you keep your job because you're 00:05:07.810 --> 00:05:10.110 a good scientist or a good accountant, not because 00:05:10.110 --> 00:05:12.509 you're loyal to the guy in the White House. It 00:05:12.509 --> 00:05:15.050 created stability. The experts stay no matter 00:05:15.050 --> 00:05:17.829 who wins the election. Right. It stops the government 00:05:17.829 --> 00:05:19.910 from being filled with people who are just loyal 00:05:19.910 --> 00:05:22.129 but have no idea what they're doing. Schedule 00:05:22.129 --> 00:05:24.389 F, which is what this new rule is bringing back, 00:05:24.810 --> 00:05:27.269 basically flips that on its head for a huge part 00:05:27.269 --> 00:05:29.569 of the workforce. It would let the administration 00:05:29.569 --> 00:05:32.670 reclassify tens of thousands of career employees 00:05:32.670 --> 00:05:35.370 into to political appointees. The numbers in 00:05:35.370 --> 00:05:37.829 the report are just staggering. A president normally 00:05:37.829 --> 00:05:40.149 gets to a point, what, about 4 ,000 people? This 00:05:40.149 --> 00:05:42.730 could push that number up to 50 ,000. Potentially, 00:05:42.870 --> 00:05:45.449 yeah. And the logic from the administration, 00:05:45.629 --> 00:05:47.910 from people like Russell Vaughn, is that the 00:05:47.910 --> 00:05:51.110 deep state, the career staff, is deliberately 00:05:51.110 --> 00:05:53.470 slowing down the president's agenda. So they 00:05:53.470 --> 00:05:55.850 want the power to fire anyone who they think 00:05:55.850 --> 00:05:58.670 is dragging their feet. But just practically 00:05:58.670 --> 00:06:01.470 speaking, let's say you do it. You fire 50 ,000 00:06:01.470 --> 00:06:05.040 people. I mean, these are EPA scientists, nuclear 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:08.000 safety inspectors, patent lawyers. How on earth 00:06:08.000 --> 00:06:10.839 do you replace them? You probably don't, or at 00:06:10.839 --> 00:06:13.480 least not with anyone competent. The source flat 00:06:13.480 --> 00:06:16.279 out warns this is a recipe for a train wreck 00:06:16.279 --> 00:06:19.079 in how the government functions. Just think about 00:06:19.079 --> 00:06:22.100 the logistics. It's hard enough to find one highly 00:06:22.100 --> 00:06:24.540 qualified nuclear engineer who's willing to move 00:06:24.540 --> 00:06:28.000 to D .C. Now imagine trying to find 50 ,000 experts 00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:30.959 who are also fiercely loyal to one specific political 00:06:30.959 --> 00:06:33.160 agenda. So you're trading expertise for loyalty. 00:06:33.420 --> 00:06:35.120 You might get your orders followed faster, but 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:36.620 the people following them might not know what 00:06:36.620 --> 00:06:38.740 they're doing. That's it in a nutshell. You are 00:06:38.740 --> 00:06:40.899 stripping the institutional memory, the actual 00:06:40.899 --> 00:06:43.259 how -to knowledge, right out of the federal government. 00:06:43.540 --> 00:06:45.680 Which sort of brings us to the communication 00:06:45.680 --> 00:06:47.959 style coming out of that government. If the internal 00:06:47.959 --> 00:06:51.959 goal is loyalty over competence, the external 00:06:51.959 --> 00:06:54.379 messaging feels like confusion over clarity. 00:06:55.540 --> 00:06:57.620 We have to talk about the hockey tweet. I honestly 00:06:57.620 --> 00:06:59.120 had to read that one three times to make sure 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:01.689 it wasn't a parody. So set the scene. President 00:07:01.689 --> 00:07:03.709 Trump is upset about a new bridge being built 00:07:03.709 --> 00:07:06.449 between Michigan and Ontario. It's a trade thing. 00:07:06.870 --> 00:07:09.990 But then he brings up the Stanley Cup. It's just 00:07:09.990 --> 00:07:12.769 so bizarre. He posted on social media that if 00:07:12.769 --> 00:07:15.550 Canada makes a trade deal with China, then China 00:07:15.550 --> 00:07:18.329 will, and this is a direct quote, terminate all 00:07:18.329 --> 00:07:20.829 ice hockey being played in Canada and permanently 00:07:20.829 --> 00:07:25.050 eliminate the Stanley Cup. OK, but how? How does 00:07:25.050 --> 00:07:27.509 Beijing cancel a sport in another country? I'm 00:07:27.509 --> 00:07:29.009 trying to picture the mechanism there. There 00:07:29.009 --> 00:07:31.170 isn't one. It's a complete non sequitur. And 00:07:31.170 --> 00:07:33.189 the source points out this isn't just, you know, 00:07:33.430 --> 00:07:36.129 a funny tweet. It's alarming. It creates this 00:07:36.129 --> 00:07:39.350 atmosphere of total instability. If your diplomat 00:07:39.350 --> 00:07:41.889 trying to negotiate and the president is threatening 00:07:41.889 --> 00:07:44.589 to cancel hockey via China, how can you take 00:07:44.589 --> 00:07:46.829 anything seriously? It just adds to all that 00:07:46.829 --> 00:07:49.009 noise we were talking about. And it feels like 00:07:49.009 --> 00:07:51.829 there's this deliberate effort to create a separate 00:07:51.829 --> 00:07:54.149 reality. We saw the same thing with that Steel 00:07:54.149 --> 00:07:56.329 Is Back graph the White House put out. Oh, the 00:07:56.329 --> 00:07:58.490 bar chart, yeah. This is a master class in how 00:07:58.490 --> 00:08:00.649 to mislead with statistics. So if you're listening, 00:08:00.810 --> 00:08:03.110 just picture a simple bar chart. Two bars, one 00:08:03.110 --> 00:08:05.949 for 2024, one for 2025. I've seen it. And the 00:08:05.949 --> 00:08:08.629 bar for 2025 looks like it's twice as tall as 00:08:08.629 --> 00:08:11.230 the 2024 bar. It makes it look like steel production 00:08:11.230 --> 00:08:15.019 doubled. A huge boom. Visually. Yes. But then 00:08:15.019 --> 00:08:17.000 you look at the y -axis, at the numbers on the 00:08:17.000 --> 00:08:19.279 side, the scale doesn't start at zero. It starts 00:08:19.279 --> 00:08:23.339 at 80 .2 million tons. So that massive jump is 00:08:23.339 --> 00:08:26.079 really just from about 80 .8 million tons to 00:08:26.079 --> 00:08:29.259 81 .8 million tons. So it's a 1 .3 % increase. 00:08:29.420 --> 00:08:31.620 It's a rounding error. It's statistically meaningless. 00:08:31.959 --> 00:08:33.320 But if you're just scrolling on social media, 00:08:33.419 --> 00:08:35.539 your brain sees that big green bar and thinks, 00:08:35.779 --> 00:08:39.340 wow, boom. It's a kind of gaslighting. The government 00:08:39.340 --> 00:08:41.519 says one thing, the data says another. And it's 00:08:41.519 --> 00:08:44.299 all a distraction. Look at the shiny bar. Don't 00:08:44.299 --> 00:08:45.960 look at the fact that we're staring down another 00:08:45.960 --> 00:08:48.059 government shutdown. Because while we're all 00:08:48.059 --> 00:08:50.700 talking about hockey and charts, the Department 00:08:50.700 --> 00:08:52.940 of Homeland Security could be closing its doors. 00:08:53.320 --> 00:08:55.299 And this is where the political chaos really 00:08:55.299 --> 00:08:57.639 could hit the real world. We're looking at a 00:08:57.639 --> 00:09:00.720 partial shutdown because of a fight over judicial 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:03.059 warrants. Let's break that down. What's the fight 00:09:03.059 --> 00:09:06.379 actually about? So Democrats are drawing a line 00:09:06.379 --> 00:09:09.649 in the sand. They're demanding that ICE immigration 00:09:09.649 --> 00:09:12.330 and customs enforcement stop using what are called 00:09:12.330 --> 00:09:14.909 administrative warrants. OK, what's that? It's 00:09:14.909 --> 00:09:17.629 basically a permission slip that an ICE agent 00:09:17.629 --> 00:09:21.110 gets from their own boss at DHS. It doesn't go 00:09:21.110 --> 00:09:23.110 through a judge. Democrats are saying they have 00:09:23.110 --> 00:09:25.470 to use judicial warrants signed by an actual 00:09:25.470 --> 00:09:27.990 judge before they can conduct raids. That seems 00:09:27.990 --> 00:09:29.929 like a pretty significant check on their power. 00:09:30.009 --> 00:09:32.149 It is. It's about due process. The White House 00:09:32.149 --> 00:09:35.250 is calling it a non -starter. So we're at a stalemate. 00:09:35.250 --> 00:09:38.080 And if the funding runs out, ICE actually keeps 00:09:38.080 --> 00:09:40.480 operating because they have other funds, but 00:09:40.480 --> 00:09:43.340 the TSA, FEMA, the Coast Guard, they all shut 00:09:43.340 --> 00:09:45.220 down. So the people who screened your luggage 00:09:45.220 --> 00:09:47.820 at the airport go home, but the immigration enforcement 00:09:47.820 --> 00:09:50.500 raids continue. That's a dark irony. It gets 00:09:50.500 --> 00:09:53.190 darker. We have a report in the source from someone 00:09:53.190 --> 00:09:55.570 in St. Paul, Minnesota describing what's happening 00:09:55.570 --> 00:09:59.190 now. They claim ICE is already ramping up aggression, 00:09:59.429 --> 00:10:02.289 smashing car windows, dragging people out. For 00:10:02.289 --> 00:10:04.490 the Democratic base, this isn't a budget debate 00:10:04.490 --> 00:10:07.029 anymore. It's a human rights issue. So their 00:10:07.029 --> 00:10:10.009 politicians cannot back down. OK. So you have 00:10:10.009 --> 00:10:12.509 a motivated opposition, a dug -in executive, 00:10:12.710 --> 00:10:15.490 a deadline. That is usually the perfect recipe 00:10:15.490 --> 00:10:18.049 for a market crash. Uncertainty is supposed to 00:10:18.049 --> 00:10:20.840 be kryptonite for investors. And yet? Here we 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:23.320 are back on Channel 2. The Market View Monthly 00:10:23.320 --> 00:10:26.240 Report, which calls this a controlled cooling 00:10:26.240 --> 00:10:29.039 phase. Soft landing. It's really happening. So 00:10:29.039 --> 00:10:31.440 let's run through the vital signs. OK. Third 00:10:31.440 --> 00:10:34.740 quarter GDP was revised up to 4 .4 percent. That's 00:10:34.740 --> 00:10:36.799 really strong. Inflation is holding steady at 00:10:36.799 --> 00:10:39.940 2 .7 percent and the Federal Reserve has paused 00:10:39.940 --> 00:10:42.500 its rate cuts. They're holding at about 3 .5 00:10:42.500 --> 00:10:43.759 percent because they don't need to stimulate 00:10:43.759 --> 00:10:45.899 the economy. It's chugging along just fine on 00:10:45.899 --> 00:10:48.039 its own. But it's not fine everywhere, right? 00:10:48.240 --> 00:10:51.019 The report points to a divergence. That's right, 00:10:51.220 --> 00:10:54.220 a split economy. Manufacturing is actually shrinking 00:10:54.220 --> 00:10:57.820 a little. The ISM index is below 50. But the 00:10:57.820 --> 00:10:59.779 services sector, which is most of the modern 00:10:59.779 --> 00:11:02.779 U .S. economy, is expanding nicely. We're making 00:11:02.779 --> 00:11:05.080 a bit less stuff, but we're doing a lot more 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:08.019 things. And then there's this gold rush. This 00:11:08.019 --> 00:11:12.059 really jumped out at me. Gold at $5 ,500 an ounce. 00:11:12.360 --> 00:11:15.940 A 27 % return year to date. And silver went even 00:11:15.940 --> 00:11:19.340 crazier. It rallied over 60%. OK, help me understand 00:11:19.340 --> 00:11:21.679 that. A gold rush is usually a panic buy, right? 00:11:22.230 --> 00:11:25.009 But the S &P 500 is hitting all -time highs. 00:11:25.450 --> 00:11:28.169 So why are people hoarding gold if they're not 00:11:28.169 --> 00:11:30.850 scared of stocks? That's the key insight here. 00:11:31.210 --> 00:11:33.049 Central banks around the world are buying tons 00:11:33.049 --> 00:11:35.309 of gold to diversify away from the dollar. But 00:11:35.309 --> 00:11:37.309 also, I think investors are looking at everything 00:11:37.309 --> 00:11:39.730 we just talked about. The shutdowns, Schedule 00:11:39.730 --> 00:11:41.870 F, the hockey tweets, and they're just hedging 00:11:41.870 --> 00:11:43.429 their bets. They're not selling their stocks, 00:11:43.649 --> 00:11:45.850 but they are buying a little bit of insurance. 00:11:46.090 --> 00:11:48.610 So the market is basically saying, we like the 00:11:48.610 --> 00:11:50.570 corporate earnings, but we see the political 00:11:50.570 --> 00:11:53.190 craziness over there. Precisely. They've essentially 00:11:53.190 --> 00:11:55.970 priced in the dysfunction. They're assuming Washington 00:11:55.970 --> 00:11:59.230 gridlock means no terrible new laws get passed 00:11:59.230 --> 00:12:01.429 so businesses can just keep doing their thing. 00:12:01.450 --> 00:12:03.809 It's a cynical view, but a profitable one, I 00:12:03.809 --> 00:12:06.149 guess. Before we wrap this all up, there's one 00:12:06.149 --> 00:12:09.230 last little wild card in the sources. The Epstein 00:12:09.230 --> 00:12:14.029 scandal is back. You slain Maxwell. She testified 00:12:14.029 --> 00:12:16.730 before Congress. Well, she showed up and took 00:12:16.730 --> 00:12:19.250 the fifth. To every single question. But then 00:12:19.250 --> 00:12:22.190 her lawyer dropped a bomb. He floated this idea 00:12:22.190 --> 00:12:24.610 that Maxwell would publicly clear both Donald 00:12:24.610 --> 00:12:28.210 Trump and Bill Clinton of any wrongdoing in exchange 00:12:28.210 --> 00:12:30.950 for clemency. Wow. That's an incredible quid 00:12:30.950 --> 00:12:33.070 pro quo. Let me out of prison and I'll say you're 00:12:33.070 --> 00:12:35.700 innocent. It feels desperate. But the political 00:12:35.700 --> 00:12:37.700 fallout is what's interesting. You look at someone 00:12:37.700 --> 00:12:40.059 like Senator Cynthia Loomis. A Republican from 00:12:40.059 --> 00:12:42.899 Wyoming. Exactly. And she has completely flipped 00:12:42.899 --> 00:12:44.740 her position. She used to dismiss all this, but 00:12:44.740 --> 00:12:47.139 now that she's seen the details, victims as young 00:12:47.139 --> 00:12:49.820 as nine, she's joining Democrats and demanding 00:12:49.820 --> 00:12:52.539 total transparency. The source argues this is 00:12:52.539 --> 00:12:54.980 becoming a new wedge issue for the left. It's 00:12:54.980 --> 00:12:57.899 a complete role reversal. Democrats are now using 00:12:57.899 --> 00:13:01.720 a morality argument to go after the elite circles 00:13:01.720 --> 00:13:03.919 around the president. Yeah, and it just adds 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:06.519 one more layer of chaos to those midterms we 00:13:06.519 --> 00:13:07.779 started with. So let's try and pull this all 00:13:07.779 --> 00:13:09.960 together. On one hand, you have a political system 00:13:09.960 --> 00:13:13.019 that is just flashing bright red warning lights 00:13:13.019 --> 00:13:16.799 everywhere. Patronage, shutdowns, polarization, 00:13:17.419 --> 00:13:20.000 bizarre messaging. On the other hand, an economy 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:24.070 that is flashing green growth, stability, It's 00:13:24.070 --> 00:13:26.809 a paradox. And the big question is, which one 00:13:26.809 --> 00:13:29.490 of those realities wins out? Can they just exist 00:13:29.490 --> 00:13:32.870 in parallel forever? For a while, maybe. But 00:13:32.870 --> 00:13:35.830 not forever. At some point, the political noise 00:13:35.830 --> 00:13:38.720 becomes a real signal. If the TSA actually shuts 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:41.340 down and planes stop flying, that hits the markets. 00:13:41.700 --> 00:13:44.279 If 50 ,000 career experts get fired and a key 00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:47.240 agency fails to stop a disaster, that will definitely 00:13:47.240 --> 00:13:48.899 hit the markets. We might just find out that 00:13:48.899 --> 00:13:51.120 all that boring competence in the civil service 00:13:51.120 --> 00:13:53.539 was the only thing keeping this soft landing 00:13:53.539 --> 00:13:56.039 from turning into a very hard crash. I think 00:13:56.039 --> 00:13:59.340 that's it. The markets are betting that somewhere 00:13:59.340 --> 00:14:02.230 the adults are still in the room. If schedule 00:14:02.230 --> 00:14:04.370 F actually clears that room out, then all bets 00:14:04.370 --> 00:14:06.889 are off. And honestly, if the Stanley Cup really 00:14:06.889 --> 00:14:09.450 gets canceled, I think the stock market will 00:14:09.450 --> 00:14:11.429 be the least of the administration's worries. 00:14:11.870 --> 00:14:13.690 Never, ever mess with the hockey vote. That's 00:14:13.690 --> 00:14:15.570 a line you just don't cross. That is our deep 00:14:15.570 --> 00:14:18.909 dive. As always, the goal is to see the whole 00:14:18.909 --> 00:14:22.129 picture, not just the noise, not just the numbers, 00:14:22.509 --> 00:14:24.889 but how they collide. Thanks for listening.