WEBVTT

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So I want to start with two numbers that, I mean,

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they just shouldn't exist in the same universe,

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8 % and 99%. Right. You look at the critical

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reception for this new Melania documentary, and

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it's a dismal 8%. I was total bomb with the critics.

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But then you flip over to the audience score

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on Rotten Tomatoes, and it's at 99%. I mean,

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how? How is that even possible? Well, it's not.

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Not naturally, anyway. It's really the definition

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of a broken metric. In statistics, you'd call

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that an outlier and just, you know, toss the

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data. But right now in our culture, that gap

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isn't an error. It's the whole point. And that

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is exactly where we're diving in today. We've

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got this whole stack of sources that they really

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paint a picture of two completely separate realities

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just crashing into each other. We have the box

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office numbers for the Melania documentary, this

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culture war over the Super Bowl halftime show,

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a national prayer breakfast that got really tense.

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And then we've got some actual election data

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from New Jersey and Texas that suggests the ground

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is, well, it's shifting under everyone's feet.

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It's a fascinating collection, because you're

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right. We usually treat entertainment and hard

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politics as separate things. Of course. But looking

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at this stack, that distinction is just gone.

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The way people review a movie is now identical

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to how they approach an election. It's not about

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quality or policy. It's just about signaling

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which team you're on. Let's stick with the Melania

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documentary for a second, because the money side

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of this story is... Frankly even weirder than

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the reviews. Oh, yeah, the headlines are trying

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to spin it as a success You see things like strong

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box office showing but you dig into the actual

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numbers and the math is just It's horrifying

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horrifying is exactly the right word for any

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accountant looking at this. So the source material

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puts the opening weekend somewhere between, what,

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$7 and $10 million? Right. And look, if this

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were a small indie doc, you'd be popping champagne.

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That's a home run. But this is not a small production.

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Not even close. The sources are indicating the

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production and marketing budget was north of

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$100 million. $100 million for a documentary.

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They spent $35 million just on the ads. Wait,

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hold on. Titanic cost $200 million, and they

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literally built a ship and sank it. How do you

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spend $100 million on a biography? That is the

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$100 million question, isn't it? The source material

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actually speculates about bribery or, you know,

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money moving around in ways that you don't see

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on screen, because you just can't put that much

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money into a documentary. Not unless you're just

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burning cash for sport. So, okay, if they made

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$10 million on a $100 million investment in the

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movie business... That's a catastrophe. Financially,

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it's an absolute disaster. It's never going to

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recoup its costs. But, and this is the big, but

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what if the goal wasn't profit? What if it was

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propaganda? Exactly. Or base mobilization. Then

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maybe the money doesn't matter. The return on

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investment might just be that 99 percent audience

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score we were talking about. OK, so let's unpack

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that score, because the sources are calling foul

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play on that, too. It's not just that Trump supporters

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liked the film. The data suggests these reviewers

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aren't even real moviegoers. Right. This is the

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biggest gap in the history of Rotten Tomatoes.

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For context, a 99 % score puts this film above

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The Godfather, and Citizen Kane, and Star Wars.

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The analysis shows that the vast majority of

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these perfect scores came from accounts that

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had never reviewed a single film before. So people

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created accounts just to give this one movie

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five stars. Precisely. It's cooking the books.

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It's an organized effort to create the perception

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of popularity. It's a loyalty test. You log in,

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you vote five stars, and you prove you're on

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the team. Whether you saw the movie or not. It's

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completely irrelevant. And on the flip side,

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you have the actual credits. I have to share

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a couple of these lines because they are blistering.

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One called it an elaborate piece of designer

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taxidermy. Ouch. Another called it a 40 million

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dollar book report. Which is harsh, but I mean,

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it lines up with the IMDB data. While Rotten

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Tomatoes was getting flooded with perfect scores,

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IMDB saw the exact opposite. The rating there

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crashed to a 1 .3 out of 10. 1 .3? That's like

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Plan 9 from outer space territory. It's tied

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for the second worst rating in the site's history.

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It's sitting right next to Kirk Cameron's Saving

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Christmas. And IMDb actually had to flag the

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page for unusual voting activity. So one platform

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is screaming masterpiece and the other is screaming

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garbage. And the reality of the film itself is

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just completely lost in all that noise. The movie

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is just a proxy war. And speaking of which, we're

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seeing the exact same dynamic play out with the

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Super Bowl. You can't just watch football anymore.

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Nope. The war on screens continues. I mean, we've

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seen boycotts before, but this year the grievance

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is so specific. It's all about the halftime show

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performer Bad Bunny. And the objection isn't

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his music. The sources are pretty blunt here.

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It's explicitly about identity. The complaints

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cited in the reports just boil down to, he's

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brown and he sings in Spanish. That seems to

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be the disqualifying factor for that wing of

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the audience. So the solution isn't just to turn

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off the TV for 15 minutes. It's to tune into

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a whole alternate reality halftime show. That's

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right. Turning Point USA is providing counter

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programming. If you don't want to watch a global

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Latin superstar, you can stream their event featuring

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inevitably. Kid Rock. It's uncanny how Kid Rock

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became the official house band for a political

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movement. But there's a detail in the ad for

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this alternative show that really caught my eye.

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They've also got Brantley Gilbert, the country

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singer. And this is where it gets into visual

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manipulation again. The source analysis points

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out that in the promotional graphics, Brantley

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Gilbert's skin tone appears to have been darkened.

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Wait, what? They darkened a white country singer?

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Why would they do that? The speculation is that

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they wanted the lineup to seem more diverse than

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it actually is without, you know, actually inviting

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any diverse performers who might not align with

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the message. It's a simulacrum of diversity.

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That is just wild. And meanwhile, you've got

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sitting senators weighing in. Tommy Tuberville

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called the Super Bowl the woke bowl. Which is

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confusing, right? He's a former football coach.

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He's complaining he can't watch the game because

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of work -ness, but the game itself is still just

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football. It signals that the cultural contamination

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is total. If the halftime show is work, then

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the whole event is tainted. And the ultimate

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sign of this split is Trump himself not going.

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The official line is travel distance, which,

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for a guy with a private jet, seems flimsy. Very

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flimsy. The sources are suggesting the real reason

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is image management. He's afraid of being booed.

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We've seen it happen recently. JD Vance got booed

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at the Olympics. A wrestler named Brody King

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sparked an anti -ice chant in Vegas. The safe

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spaces are shrinking. A Super Bowl stadium is

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an uncontrolled environment. Exactly. You can't

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filter that crowd like you can on Rotten Tomatoes.

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If 50 ,000 people decide to boo you, that shatters

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the whole narrative of universal adoration. So

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he stays home. This theme of performative politics

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versus this uncontrolled reality really came

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to a head in Washington this week, too, at the

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National Prayer Breakfast. This is usually the

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most boring, scripted, bipartisan thing all year.

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You sip coffee, you pray for unity, you go home.

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Usually. But this year, someone threw out the

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script. You had this incredible juxtaposition

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of Trump giving the keynote, which the sources

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describe as just his standard stump speech. Rambling,

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attacking enemies, airing grievances. From a

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pulpit. From a pulpit. But what happened next

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was the real breach of protocol. Representative

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Jonathan Jackson, who is Jesse Jackson's son,

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had to give the closing prayer. And he's standing

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feet away from Trump. Imagine that scene. He's

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standing feet... from the man who just spent

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20 minutes attacking half the country, and Jackson

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doesn't give some generic bless our leaders prayer,

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he goes surgical. I have the text here. He prayed

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for protection from the inequities of evil. He

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asked for greater clarity and greater courage.

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Inequities of evil? That's not subtle language.

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He's using the language of spiritual warfare,

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but he's applying it to the governance of the

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man standing right next to him. He even warned

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about the power to turn the country into a cosmic

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elegy of chaos. Wow. Cosmic elegy of chaos. It's

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powerful stuff. And the visual was apparently

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telling. Reports say Trump just had his eyes

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closed. Was he praying? Was he sleeping? Was

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he just seething? We don't know. But for a moment,

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the bubble popped. It was a direct, face -to

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-face moral confrontation. It's interesting you

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mention the digital world, because that bubble

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was also leaking this week. We have to talk about

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that deleted video from Trump's social media

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feed. Yeah, this is the much darker side of the

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separate reality we're talking about. A video

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gets posted to his official account, stays up

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for about 12 hours. Most of it is, you know,

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the standard conspiracy stuff about the 2020

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election. But then what? Then, just spliced into

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the middle, is a two -second clip depicting the

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Obamas as apes. It's just shocking that in 2026,

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we are still dealing with imagery that is so

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explicitly violently racist. It wasn't a dog

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whistle. It was a bullhorn. And the White House

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response was just chaotic. First, they blamed

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a staffer. Then, bizarrely, they claimed it was

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a reference to the Lion King. They're the Lion

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King. Yeah. The source notes, with some very

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dry humor, that there are no apes in the Lion

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King. There are lions. There are meerkats. No

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apes. It was just a desperate, nonsensical excuse.

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But unlike the Super Bowl stuff where everyone

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kind of falls in line, the GOP actually flinched

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at this one. They did. And the phrasing from

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Senator Tim Scott is what I want to focus on.

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He called it the most racist thing I've seen

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out of this White House. The most racist thing.

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Exactly. He didn't say this is racist and out

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of character. He implied a hierarchy. He's basically

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saying, I've seen a lot of racist things from

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this administration, but this one finally crossed

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a line. It suggests a fracture. A real fracture.

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There is a line where even the Republican establishment

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can't defend the anti -woke posturing anymore.

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So OK, we have all this culture war, noise, movies,

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football tweets. But underneath all of that,

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the actual machinery of democracy is turning.

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We had special elections this week, New Jersey

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and Texas. And if you look at the data, the voters

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seem to be telling a very different story from

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the Internet. This is where we need to pay attention.

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The noise says the country is deadlocked. The

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signal from these elections says the electorate

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is volatile and angry. Take a look at New Jersey's

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11th district. Right. This was the primary to

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replace a Democrat. It was framed as this classic

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establishment versus progressive fight, Tom Malinowski

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against Analei Mijia. And Mijia, the progressive,

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surged late. The result is still too close to

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call, but it's leaning her way. But the takeaway

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isn't that New Jersey suddenly went socialist.

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The source analysis argues this is about new

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blood versus old blood. Voters are just tired

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of the incumbents. Precisely. Malinowski is a

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known quantity. Mejia is fresh. The voters are

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signaling a throw the bums out mentality that

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goes beyond ideology. They just want change.

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But if New Jersey was a tremor, Texas was the

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earthquake. Oh, yeah. Senate District 9 is a

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deep red seat. And the Democrat, Taylor Remit,

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didn't just win. He he destroyed the curve. A

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32 point swing. In political science terms, that's

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catastrophic for the incumbent party. Usually

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fight over three or four points. Thirty two points

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means the bottom just fell out. And for the last

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few years, the narrative has been that Latino

00:11:34.960 --> 00:11:38.299
voters are moving to the GOP. But in this race,

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Remit won 80 percent of the Latino vote. That

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is the number that should keep Republican strategists

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awake at night. Eighty percent. It suggests that

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this whole realignment we've been hearing about

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is either a myth or it's highly reversible. So

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what happened? Why did it flip back so hard?

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It's likely a direct reaction to the specific

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nativist turn the rhetoric has taken. I mean,

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when you have the kind of discourse we saw with

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Bad Bunny or with immigration, that registers

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the source calls this a canary in the coal mine.

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Because if the GOP loses the Latino vote by those

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margins in the midterms, the whole map changes.

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Texas isn't safe. Arizona isn't safe. And even

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Nevada seems to be in play. We have representative

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Marc Amode retiring from a safe Republican seat.

00:12:23.919 --> 00:12:25.659
Another one of those signals. He's leaving a

00:12:25.659 --> 00:12:27.840
safe seat. Publicly, he says he's passing the

00:12:27.840 --> 00:12:29.740
torch. But the reading between the lines is that

00:12:29.740 --> 00:12:32.059
the job just sucks now. It's become miserable.

00:12:32.179 --> 00:12:34.360
And when you have safe incumbents quitting. It

00:12:34.360 --> 00:12:37.960
creates open seats. And open seats invite chaos.

00:12:38.620 --> 00:12:41.179
The GOP could lose that seat just because of

00:12:41.179 --> 00:12:43.379
a messy primary. It feels like the political

00:12:43.379 --> 00:12:45.419
professionals are finally realizing what the

00:12:45.419 --> 00:12:48.570
voters already knew. The whole system is unstable.

00:12:49.250 --> 00:12:52.110
Which brings us to the final real -world consequence

00:12:52.110 --> 00:12:54.429
of all this. The government is about to run out

00:12:54.429 --> 00:12:58.220
of money. Again. The DHS funding cliff. We are

00:12:58.220 --> 00:13:00.779
a week away. And the fight is all about ICE.

00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:03.980
The Democrats put forward this list of 10 demands

00:13:03.980 --> 00:13:06.620
that's basically a total overhaul. No masks,

00:13:07.120 --> 00:13:09.480
mandatory body cams, no enforcement at schools

00:13:09.480 --> 00:13:11.879
or churches. It's a transparency and human rights

00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:14.659
wish list. And naturally, the GOP response from

00:13:14.659 --> 00:13:16.899
Senator Thune was to call it unrealistic and

00:13:16.899 --> 00:13:18.950
just punt the whole thing to Trump. And what's

00:13:18.950 --> 00:13:20.669
Trump's position on this? Well, this connects

00:13:20.669 --> 00:13:22.929
right back to our separate realities theme. He

00:13:22.929 --> 00:13:24.690
gave an interview right before the Super Bowl.

00:13:25.029 --> 00:13:27.029
He was asked about migrants dying in custody,

00:13:27.250 --> 00:13:30.370
specifically two cases, Renee Good and Alex Preti.

00:13:31.009 --> 00:13:33.210
And his response wasn't about policy or safety.

00:13:33.509 --> 00:13:35.610
He said the real tragedy of their deaths was

00:13:35.610 --> 00:13:38.269
the bad publicity for IC. He said the bad PR

00:13:38.269 --> 00:13:41.649
was the tragedy, not the deaths. Yes. And he

00:13:41.649 --> 00:13:44.149
even qualified it by saying the deceased weren't

00:13:44.149 --> 00:13:49.419
angels. So. Look at that negotiating gap. One

00:13:49.419 --> 00:13:51.720
side is demanding body cameras to prevent death

00:13:51.720 --> 00:13:54.980
and abuse. The other side sees those deaths primarily

00:13:54.980 --> 00:13:57.360
as a public relations problem. How do you even

00:13:57.360 --> 00:14:00.080
begin to compromise between human rights and

00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:02.620
PR management? You don't. That's the conclusion.

00:14:02.980 --> 00:14:06.120
The ideological gap is unbridgeable right now.

00:14:06.840 --> 00:14:08.980
A shutdown seems almost inevitable because they

00:14:08.980 --> 00:14:11.059
aren't arguing about numbers on a spreadsheet.

00:14:11.539 --> 00:14:13.460
They're arguing about the fundamental value of

00:14:13.460 --> 00:14:15.259
the people caught in the system. So it all comes

00:14:15.259 --> 00:14:18.259
full circle from a movie review score that has

00:14:18.259 --> 00:14:20.259
nothing to do with the movie. To a halftime show

00:14:20.259 --> 00:14:22.220
that has nothing to do with football. To a budget

00:14:22.220 --> 00:14:24.360
negotiation that has nothing to do with the actual

00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:26.299
needs of the country. It's all the same phenomenon.

00:14:26.519 --> 00:14:29.720
We're seeing the creation of these bespoke realities.

00:14:29.840 --> 00:14:31.480
If you don't like the movie reviews, you buy

00:14:31.480 --> 00:14:33.419
the score. If you don't like the halftime show,

00:14:33.740 --> 00:14:35.500
you film your own. And if you don't like the

00:14:35.500 --> 00:14:37.820
bad press about human rights abuses, you just

00:14:37.820 --> 00:14:41.700
blame the victims. It's terrifying. But it's

00:14:41.700 --> 00:14:44.899
also strangely clarifying. because those election

00:14:44.899 --> 00:14:47.639
results in Texas and New Jersey suggest that

00:14:47.639 --> 00:14:50.879
reality eventually crashes the party. You can

00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:52.960
fake a Rotten Tomatoes score. You can't fake

00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:55.639
a 32 -point swing in a voting booth. That's the

00:14:55.639 --> 00:14:58.279
hope, right? The user score on the Internet might

00:14:58.279 --> 00:15:00.500
be rigged, but the voter score in the precinct

00:15:00.500 --> 00:15:03.440
is still, for now, the only metric that actually

00:15:03.440 --> 00:15:05.580
shifts power. So here's the question for you

00:15:05.580 --> 00:15:08.350
to chew on as we head toward the midterms. We're

00:15:08.350 --> 00:15:10.730
seeing this massive effort to curate the world,

00:15:11.029 --> 00:15:13.330
to fit a narrative. But when people actually

00:15:13.330 --> 00:15:16.669
walk into that voting booth alone, are they voting

00:15:16.669 --> 00:15:19.809
on that curated online reality? Or are they voting

00:15:19.809 --> 00:15:21.889
on the reality they see in their own neighborhoods?

00:15:22.289 --> 00:15:25.049
If Texas is any indication, the official narrative

00:15:25.049 --> 00:15:27.429
might be in for a very rude awakening. We'll

00:15:27.429 --> 00:15:29.230
be watching the numbers. Thanks for diving in

00:15:29.230 --> 00:15:29.549
with us.
