WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.319 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. It's Friday, February 00:00:03.319 --> 00:00:07.980 6th, 2026. And that date usually means one big 00:00:07.980 --> 00:00:11.140 thing. Exactly. The Winter Olympics. The opening 00:00:11.140 --> 00:00:14.099 ceremony is kicking off, well, right now in Milan 00:00:14.099 --> 00:00:17.120 at the San Siro Stadium. Right. And that's supposed 00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:19.539 to be the moment the whole world just, you know, 00:00:19.539 --> 00:00:21.800 takes a collective breath. The Olympic truce. 00:00:21.940 --> 00:00:24.899 That's the dream, isn't it? Politics stops. Sports 00:00:24.899 --> 00:00:28.120 begin. But looking at the stack of research we 00:00:28.120 --> 00:00:30.379 have on the desk today, I'm not really feeling 00:00:30.379 --> 00:00:33.520 much of a truce. Not at all. In fact, the tension 00:00:33.520 --> 00:00:36.460 that's hanging over that sodium in Italy feels, 00:00:36.880 --> 00:00:39.880 it feels eerily similar to the tension hanging 00:00:39.880 --> 00:00:42.100 over Washington and Wall Street this morning. 00:00:42.619 --> 00:00:44.280 Fragile is the perfect word for it. It feels 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:46.039 like we're walking on eggshells in about four 00:00:46.039 --> 00:00:47.780 different directions at once. You've got the 00:00:47.780 --> 00:00:49.880 political landscape, which a year ago looked 00:00:49.880 --> 00:00:52.159 rock solid. Now it's suddenly showing cracks. 00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:54.240 Then you have the financial markets actively 00:00:54.240 --> 00:00:56.859 fleeing from the future to run back to the past. 00:00:57.130 --> 00:00:59.869 and a government clamping down on the flow of 00:00:59.869 --> 00:01:02.490 information in a way we really haven't seen in 00:01:02.490 --> 00:01:05.069 decades. So our mission today is to connect these 00:01:05.069 --> 00:01:07.950 dots. Yeah, exactly. We need to explain why GOP 00:01:07.950 --> 00:01:11.189 strategists are suddenly sweating, why your portfolio 00:01:11.189 --> 00:01:15.209 might need a real -world adjustment, and why 00:01:15.209 --> 00:01:17.250 the Canada -U .S. hockey game might be the most 00:01:17.250 --> 00:01:20.030 hostile event of the year. It is a heavy stack, 00:01:20.370 --> 00:01:23.650 but the through line here is uncertainty. When 00:01:23.650 --> 00:01:26.430 people, voters, investors, anyone get nervous, 00:01:26.810 --> 00:01:29.430 They behave in extreme ways. OK, so let's start 00:01:29.430 --> 00:01:31.549 with that political earthquake because this was 00:01:31.549 --> 00:01:33.290 the biggest shock in the reading for me. We're 00:01:33.290 --> 00:01:36.230 talking about the Senate, right? On paper, Republicans 00:01:36.230 --> 00:01:40.109 have a 5347 majority. That should be a fortress. 00:01:40.609 --> 00:01:42.650 You don't usually lose a majority that big in 00:01:42.650 --> 00:01:44.909 one cycle. No, you don't. And a year ago, the 00:01:44.909 --> 00:01:47.230 narrative was the Senate is safe. It was a lock. 00:01:47.310 --> 00:01:51.129 But this Axios report we have. Wow, it just completely 00:01:51.129 --> 00:01:52.870 changes the temperature in the room. It does. 00:01:53.349 --> 00:01:55.250 You have top Republican operatives admitting, 00:01:55.450 --> 00:01:57.829 and this is behind closed doors, that retaining 00:01:57.829 --> 00:02:02.010 control is far less certain. Far less certain 00:02:02.010 --> 00:02:04.269 than they thought. And the reason isn't just, 00:02:04.269 --> 00:02:07.590 you know, the pendulum swinging. The report specifically 00:02:07.590 --> 00:02:09.729 says that the issues that won the White House 00:02:09.729 --> 00:02:12.759 in 2024, immigration, the economy, They're just 00:02:12.759 --> 00:02:14.900 not providing the same lift anymore. They're 00:02:14.900 --> 00:02:16.699 actually becoming liabilities in some of these 00:02:16.699 --> 00:02:19.620 states. That's the key. In 2024, those were the 00:02:19.620 --> 00:02:22.539 tailwinds. But now voters are asking, OK, you 00:02:22.539 --> 00:02:25.259 won, but did you fix it? And because the answer 00:02:25.259 --> 00:02:28.729 is messy. The map is expanding. OK, so where? 00:02:28.909 --> 00:02:31.830 I mean, the NRSE, the National Republican Senatorial 00:02:31.830 --> 00:02:34.310 Committee, is circulating this slide deck. And 00:02:34.310 --> 00:02:36.729 they identify their toughest challenge as Maine. 00:02:37.110 --> 00:02:40.090 Susan Collins. Right, Senator Collins. She has 00:02:40.090 --> 00:02:42.370 survived everything thrown at her for decades. 00:02:42.750 --> 00:02:45.129 But the data shows her path to reelection is 00:02:45.129 --> 00:02:47.650 narrower than it's ever been. But Maine isn't 00:02:47.650 --> 00:02:49.530 the story that really made me sit up straight. 00:02:49.729 --> 00:02:53.289 No, it was Texas. It was Texas. Now. I have to 00:02:53.289 --> 00:02:55.509 push back a little here. Go for it. Because I 00:02:55.509 --> 00:02:58.669 feel like we hear, Texas is turning blue every 00:02:58.669 --> 00:03:01.490 two years. Yeah. It just never happens. Democrats 00:03:01.490 --> 00:03:03.509 haven't won a statewide race there in 30 years. 00:03:03.990 --> 00:03:06.389 Why is the Texas problem real this time? Because 00:03:06.389 --> 00:03:08.669 this time, the call is coming from inside the 00:03:08.669 --> 00:03:11.330 House. It's not just Democrats versus Republicans 00:03:11.330 --> 00:03:13.289 anymore. It's Republicans versus Republicans. 00:03:13.409 --> 00:03:16.069 Exactly. A civil war. You have the incumbent 00:03:16.069 --> 00:03:18.789 Senator John Cornyn facing this brutal primary 00:03:18.789 --> 00:03:21.090 challenge from the Attorney General Ken Paxton. 00:03:21.229 --> 00:03:24.169 And these two? they do not like each other. Oh, 00:03:24.289 --> 00:03:27.310 it is nasty. It's personal. It's expensive. And 00:03:27.310 --> 00:03:30.210 the fear among the GOP strategists is that this 00:03:30.210 --> 00:03:32.610 primary battle is going to leave the winner so 00:03:32.610 --> 00:03:35.590 bruised and so broke that the general election 00:03:35.590 --> 00:03:38.229 actually becomes a toss -up. So if Cornyn wins, 00:03:38.370 --> 00:03:41.810 he's alienated the base. If Paxton wins, he might 00:03:41.810 --> 00:03:44.270 be too extreme for the suburbs. You got it. And 00:03:44.270 --> 00:03:46.729 that brings us to the money. Because if you suddenly 00:03:46.729 --> 00:03:49.069 have to defend a Senate seat in Texas... That 00:03:49.069 --> 00:03:51.250 is not a cheap state to advertise in. Not at 00:03:51.250 --> 00:03:54.050 all. It's massive. And if the GOP has to dump 00:03:54.050 --> 00:03:56.750 tens of millions of dollars into Texas just to 00:03:56.750 --> 00:03:58.870 hold the line, that's money they can't spend 00:03:58.870 --> 00:04:02.129 in Ohio or Alaska. And, looking at the list... 00:04:01.949 --> 00:04:04.270 The Democrats seem to have realized this. They've 00:04:04.270 --> 00:04:07.150 recruited actual brands, not just politicians. 00:04:08.150 --> 00:04:10.409 Yeah. Sherrod Brown is running again in Ohio. 00:04:10.990 --> 00:04:13.830 Mary Peltola in Alaska. These are people who 00:04:13.830 --> 00:04:15.629 have already proven they can win in red states. 00:04:15.849 --> 00:04:18.410 And then there's Georgia. This is the one that 00:04:18.410 --> 00:04:20.350 really highlights the resource problem for me. 00:04:20.810 --> 00:04:24.290 The GOP was... desperate for Governor Brian Kemp 00:04:24.290 --> 00:04:27.209 to run. He's popular. He's established. And he 00:04:27.209 --> 00:04:29.389 said no. So now they're left with a slate of 00:04:29.389 --> 00:04:31.449 lesser -known candidates going up against John 00:04:31.449 --> 00:04:34.350 Ossoff. And John Ossoff is, well, the numbers 00:04:34.350 --> 00:04:36.529 here are just staggering. Does this report say 00:04:36.529 --> 00:04:40.470 he has $25 million cash on hand? $25 million. 00:04:40.610 --> 00:04:43.149 It's an absolute war chest. The man is a fundraising 00:04:43.149 --> 00:04:45.779 machine. So you're a Republican strategist. You're 00:04:45.779 --> 00:04:48.279 trying to defend Maine, stop a civil war in Texas, 00:04:48.680 --> 00:04:50.660 fight popular incumbents in Ohio and Alaska, 00:04:51.100 --> 00:04:53.540 and outspend John Ossoff in Georgia. Suddenly 00:04:53.540 --> 00:04:56.600 that 53 -seat majority doesn't feel like a fortress 00:04:56.600 --> 00:04:58.720 anymore. No, it feels like a house of cards, 00:04:59.100 --> 00:05:01.560 which explains the nickname in the report, the 00:05:01.560 --> 00:05:03.959 Panikins. Right. One strategist told the press 00:05:03.959 --> 00:05:07.459 to stop bedwetting, but the anxiety is very, 00:05:07.480 --> 00:05:09.850 very real. OK, so if you're the party in power 00:05:09.850 --> 00:05:11.750 and you see your grip slipping, you don't just 00:05:11.750 --> 00:05:13.910 sit there. You try to change the game. You change 00:05:13.910 --> 00:05:16.329 the rules of the game. And that brings us to 00:05:16.329 --> 00:05:19.949 the legislative side of the stack. The Save America 00:05:19.949 --> 00:05:22.970 Act. This is the counter move. If the political 00:05:22.970 --> 00:05:25.569 environment is turning against you, you focus 00:05:25.569 --> 00:05:28.589 on the mechanics of the election itself. So CVE 00:05:28.589 --> 00:05:31.649 stands for Safeguard American Voter Eligibility. 00:05:32.539 --> 00:05:34.779 Let's break down what's actually in this bill 00:05:34.779 --> 00:05:37.360 because it sounds bureaucratic, but the impact 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:40.639 is huge. Oh, it is. It would require proof of 00:05:40.639 --> 00:05:43.579 citizenship to register to vote and not just 00:05:43.579 --> 00:05:46.000 checking a box on a form. We're talking a birth 00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:48.980 certificate or a passport. It also mandates photo 00:05:48.980 --> 00:05:52.899 ID in every single state and it eliminates mail 00:05:52.899 --> 00:05:55.699 only registration. And Trump is pushing this 00:05:55.699 --> 00:05:58.819 personally. He's framing it as the only way to, 00:05:58.819 --> 00:06:02.040 you know, fix. the elections. To his base, this 00:06:02.040 --> 00:06:04.439 is just common sense security. But the conflict 00:06:04.439 --> 00:06:06.839 comes from the practical reality of that. I mean, 00:06:06.980 --> 00:06:08.839 most people don't carry their birth certificate 00:06:08.839 --> 00:06:10.579 in their wallet. Right. And Chuck Schumer pointed 00:06:10.579 --> 00:06:12.680 out something like half of all Americans don't 00:06:12.680 --> 00:06:14.980 even have a valid passport. So the argument from 00:06:14.980 --> 00:06:17.779 the Democrats is that this is a stealth way to 00:06:17.779 --> 00:06:20.560 just disenfranchise millions of people. Exactly. 00:06:20.759 --> 00:06:22.660 If you make the hurdle for registration that 00:06:22.660 --> 00:06:25.139 high. You're going to filter out a lot of people, 00:06:25.360 --> 00:06:27.540 disproportionately young people, poor people, 00:06:27.740 --> 00:06:30.439 and minorities. That's the Democratic view. They 00:06:30.439 --> 00:06:32.639 see it as an existential threat to voting rights. 00:06:33.300 --> 00:06:35.879 So the House is pushing this hard, but the Senate, 00:06:36.500 --> 00:06:38.220 the Democrats still have enough votes to block 00:06:38.220 --> 00:06:40.279 it. They can just filibuster. Normally, yes. 00:06:40.660 --> 00:06:43.740 But there's a really interesting detail in the 00:06:43.740 --> 00:06:47.579 strategy notes here. The hard right is pushing 00:06:47.579 --> 00:06:51.439 for a talking filibuster. OK, talking filibuster. 00:06:51.839 --> 00:06:53.959 I feel like I learned this in high school civics, 00:06:54.019 --> 00:06:56.339 but remind me, and everyone listening, how this 00:06:56.339 --> 00:06:58.819 is different. So a modern filibuster is basically 00:06:58.819 --> 00:07:01.560 an email. You just signal, you object. And unless 00:07:01.560 --> 00:07:04.180 the other side has 60 votes, the bill dies. It's 00:07:04.180 --> 00:07:06.560 painless. Right. A talking filibuster is the 00:07:06.560 --> 00:07:09.019 old -school Mr. Smith goes to Washington version. 00:07:09.160 --> 00:07:10.480 The one where you actually have to stand on the 00:07:10.480 --> 00:07:13.079 floor and speak until you collapse? Yes. You 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:16.000 have to hold the floor, talk for hours, for days, 00:07:16.620 --> 00:07:19.730 maybe weeks. The idea from the GOP side is, OK, 00:07:19.850 --> 00:07:22.149 Democrats, you want to block this. We're going 00:07:22.149 --> 00:07:24.689 to make you physically suffer for it on national 00:07:24.689 --> 00:07:27.230 TV. It's pure theater. It's high stakes theater. 00:07:27.629 --> 00:07:30.389 But Senate Leader John Thune is hesitant. Because 00:07:30.389 --> 00:07:33.910 if you do this, the entire Senate just stops. 00:07:34.129 --> 00:07:36.629 Nothing else gets done. Nothing. No judges, no 00:07:36.629 --> 00:07:38.930 ambassadors. You grind the government to a halt. 00:07:39.149 --> 00:07:41.769 So the question is, how much political capital 00:07:41.769 --> 00:07:43.870 are they willing to burn? And while they figure 00:07:43.870 --> 00:07:46.230 that out, that uncertainty just spills over. 00:07:46.790 --> 00:07:49.209 Which brings us to the people who hate uncertainty 00:07:49.209 --> 00:07:51.389 the most. The investors. Let's talk about the 00:07:51.389 --> 00:07:53.970 money. We have this macro summary from Hedgeye, 00:07:54.430 --> 00:07:57.069 and it paints a picture of a market that is... 00:07:57.069 --> 00:07:59.029 well, it's scared. It's defensive. They used 00:07:59.029 --> 00:08:01.230 a great metaphor. Two sides of the garage. Meaning? 00:08:01.670 --> 00:08:03.870 What? The economy and the stock market are completely 00:08:03.870 --> 00:08:06.769 disconnected. Exactly. The actual economy, jobs, 00:08:06.949 --> 00:08:10.220 GDP, it's fairly resilient. But... The market 00:08:10.220 --> 00:08:12.680 stock prices, investor sentiment, it's panicking. 00:08:12.939 --> 00:08:15.220 And when the market panics, it retains. So what 00:08:15.220 --> 00:08:17.000 are they rotating into? Because for the last 00:08:17.000 --> 00:08:20.199 decade, the answer was always buy tech. That 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:23.459 era appears to be pausing, if not completely 00:08:23.459 --> 00:08:26.000 ending. The report is brutally bearish on what 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:29.519 they're calling the Bag 7. The Bag 7. That's 00:08:29.519 --> 00:08:32.279 new to me. It's a play on the Magnificent 7, 00:08:32.419 --> 00:08:35.340 you know, Microsoft, Broadcom, Oracle. They're 00:08:35.340 --> 00:08:37.980 basically calling them bag holders now. The signal 00:08:37.980 --> 00:08:40.710 is that These stocks are overvalued and the smart 00:08:40.710 --> 00:08:42.649 money is getting out. They're actively shorting 00:08:42.649 --> 00:08:45.230 software. What about crypto? Usually when people 00:08:45.230 --> 00:08:46.889 get scared of the dollar, they run to Bitcoin. 00:08:47.070 --> 00:08:49.590 Not this time. The report is explicit. Get out 00:08:49.590 --> 00:08:51.860 of crypto. The analysis is that Bitcoin isn't 00:08:51.860 --> 00:08:54.360 acting like digital gold. It's not a safe haven. 00:08:54.700 --> 00:08:57.179 It's acting like another risky tech stock. So 00:08:57.179 --> 00:08:59.539 if tech goes down, crypto goes down with it. 00:08:59.639 --> 00:09:01.779 OK, so if you dump tech and you dump crypto, 00:09:01.940 --> 00:09:05.220 where does the cash go? You buy real stuff. That's 00:09:05.220 --> 00:09:07.740 the theme. Cyclicals. Explain cyclicals for us. 00:09:07.879 --> 00:09:10.059 These are companies that move in cycles with 00:09:10.059 --> 00:09:12.840 the physical economy. We're talking industrials, 00:09:13.019 --> 00:09:15.039 the people who make bulldozers and engines. We're 00:09:15.039 --> 00:09:18.960 talking energy, oil and gas exploration. So tangible 00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:21.889 assets. Things you can kick. Exactly. If you 00:09:21.889 --> 00:09:26.100 can kick it, buy it. The industrial ETF XLI and 00:09:26.100 --> 00:09:29.240 the oil and gas one XOP are near all time highs. 00:09:29.600 --> 00:09:32.360 People are buying gold, silver, platinum, uranium. 00:09:32.679 --> 00:09:34.919 The bet is the digital bubble is bursting and 00:09:34.919 --> 00:09:37.440 the physical world is where value lives now. 00:09:37.659 --> 00:09:40.200 Is it total back to basics trade? It really is. 00:09:40.399 --> 00:09:43.220 And they're also shorting the US dollar. They 00:09:43.220 --> 00:09:45.980 are betting against the currency itself and looking 00:09:45.980 --> 00:09:49.039 at international markets instead. Japan, Turkey, 00:09:49.419 --> 00:09:52.659 Mexico. Wow, that feels significant. Shorting 00:09:52.659 --> 00:09:54.480 the dollar and buying gold is usually what you 00:09:54.480 --> 00:09:56.340 do when you think something bad is coming. It's 00:09:56.340 --> 00:09:58.299 a survival strategy. The advice in the report 00:09:58.299 --> 00:10:01.600 is literally, don't chase the moves, wait for 00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:03.679 the chop, the volatility, and then buy the things 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:05.679 people actually need. Wait for the chop. Yeah. 00:10:05.759 --> 00:10:08.480 Like that. But it's ominous. And speaking of 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:11.179 ominous, let's pivot to the third story. Because 00:10:11.179 --> 00:10:13.279 while investors are trying to hide from volatility, 00:10:13.860 --> 00:10:16.259 the government seems to be trying to stop information 00:10:16.259 --> 00:10:19.320 from getting out at all. The war on leaks. This 00:10:19.320 --> 00:10:21.919 one stood out because of the tone. We saw this 00:10:21.919 --> 00:10:24.759 headline about DHS secretary Kristi Noem. She 00:10:24.759 --> 00:10:26.919 went on X and posted about catching a leaker, 00:10:26.919 --> 00:10:29.299 but it wasn't just a press release. It fell. 00:10:30.200 --> 00:10:34.419 Yes. Almost boastful. It was. She said they caught 00:10:34.419 --> 00:10:37.399 another prolific leaker and referred them for 00:10:37.399 --> 00:10:39.779 criminal prosecution. But then she added this 00:10:39.779 --> 00:10:43.460 little line at the end. A journalist is now down 00:10:43.460 --> 00:10:48.039 another source. Oh, down another source. That 00:10:48.039 --> 00:10:50.840 frames the press as the enemy. Not just the leaker. 00:10:51.039 --> 00:10:52.960 Precisely. And that's why press freedom groups 00:10:52.960 --> 00:10:55.080 like the Committee to Protect Journalists are 00:10:55.080 --> 00:10:56.799 ringing the alarm bells they're calling this 00:10:56.799 --> 00:10:58.759 terrifying. Because it's not just one tweet, 00:10:58.899 --> 00:11:01.080 it's a pattern. It's a pattern across the entire 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:03.039 administration. We've seen the Department of 00:11:03.039 --> 00:11:05.360 Justice end the policy that protected journalists 00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:07.940 from subpoenas. Right. And Attorney General Pam 00:11:07.940 --> 00:11:11.659 Bondi is aggressively seizing phone records to 00:11:11.659 --> 00:11:14.820 hunt down sources. The FBI searched a Washington 00:11:14.820 --> 00:11:16.919 Post reporter's home. Which is incredibly rare. 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:20.019 That's a massive escalation. And DNI Tulsi Gabbard 00:11:20.019 --> 00:11:22.740 has announced multiple criminal referrals. Now, 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:25.679 to be fair, the administration's argument is 00:11:25.679 --> 00:11:28.100 that leaking classified information is a crime. 00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:32.340 Right. Secretary Noem cited an 8000 percent increase. 00:11:32.600 --> 00:11:36.000 in death threats against DHS officials. 8 ,000%. 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:38.480 That's the number she used. And if that's true, 00:11:39.039 --> 00:11:41.299 you can understand the defensive posture. They 00:11:41.299 --> 00:11:44.360 argue these leaks endanger the lives of law enforcement. 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:47.539 What the press advocates would say. What? They'd 00:11:47.539 --> 00:11:49.679 say these leaks aren't about nuclear codes. They're 00:11:49.679 --> 00:11:51.840 about public interest. I mean, look at what's 00:11:51.840 --> 00:11:55.080 been leaked recently. I see claiming authority 00:11:55.080 --> 00:11:57.860 to enter homes without warrants. Surveillance 00:11:57.860 --> 00:12:00.080 tools sweeping up massive amounts of citizen 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:02.860 data. And DHS labeling protesters as domestic 00:12:02.860 --> 00:12:05.019 terrorists. Exactly. So the argument is that 00:12:05.019 --> 00:12:07.139 these leaks are the only way the public knows 00:12:07.139 --> 00:12:09.159 what the government is actually doing? If you 00:12:09.159 --> 00:12:11.559 prosecute every leaker and subpoena every journalist, 00:12:11.960 --> 00:12:14.340 you create a chilling effect. And sources go 00:12:14.340 --> 00:12:16.799 silent? And when sources go silent, the only 00:12:16.799 --> 00:12:18.620 narrative that exists is the one the government 00:12:18.620 --> 00:12:21.299 approves of. It's all about control. Which brings 00:12:21.299 --> 00:12:23.720 us, finally. to the place where narrative control 00:12:23.720 --> 00:12:26.100 is usually the name of the game. The Olympics. 00:12:26.620 --> 00:12:29.639 Milan. It's supposed to be a celebration. But 00:12:29.639 --> 00:12:32.840 reading the reports from the ground, the vibe 00:12:32.840 --> 00:12:36.100 is not a party. No, the source material describes 00:12:36.100 --> 00:12:39.159 Trump's shadow looming over the entire event. 00:12:39.700 --> 00:12:42.759 And practically that shadow looks like Vice President 00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:45.639 J .D. Vance. Trump isn't attending. No, he sent 00:12:45.639 --> 00:12:48.480 Vance, which is a statement in itself, given 00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:50.639 Vance's public criticism of European leaders. 00:12:51.419 --> 00:12:54.559 But the real friction isn't in the VIP box. It's 00:12:54.559 --> 00:12:57.659 on the ground. Oh, so. There are reports of ISIS 00:12:57.659 --> 00:12:59.919 agents, U .S. immigration officials providing 00:12:59.919 --> 00:13:02.899 security for the U .S. delegation in Italy. Wait, 00:13:03.100 --> 00:13:05.779 ISIS agents are operating in Italy? Yes. And 00:13:05.779 --> 00:13:07.779 that has sparked what the sources are calling 00:13:07.779 --> 00:13:10.799 widespread fury. Having a controversial U .S. 00:13:11.059 --> 00:13:13.080 domestic law enforcement agency patrolling an 00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:15.320 international sporting event? It's rubbing a 00:13:15.320 --> 00:13:17.279 lot of people the wrong way. And that tension 00:13:17.279 --> 00:13:19.360 is bleeding onto the ice. I was looking at the 00:13:19.360 --> 00:13:21.919 notes on the Canada rivalry. Yeah. I mean, U 00:13:21.919 --> 00:13:23.840 .S. versus Canada and hockey is usually a friendly 00:13:23.840 --> 00:13:26.519 rivalry. Our neighbors to the north. Not this 00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:29.480 year. Remember the four nations face off. Canadian 00:13:29.480 --> 00:13:32.080 fans booed the U .S. anthem. And it wasn't because 00:13:32.080 --> 00:13:34.580 of a bad call. It was because of the 51st state 00:13:34.580 --> 00:13:37.559 comments. Right. Trump called the U .S. locker 00:13:37.559 --> 00:13:41.159 room and joked about Canada being the 51st state. 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:44.659 Which, to a Canadian, is not a joke. It's a threat 00:13:44.659 --> 00:13:47.860 to their sovereignty. A Canadian MP, Charlie 00:13:47.860 --> 00:13:51.159 Angus, said, and I quote, It is no longer a game. 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:54.679 He called the rhetoric unhinged. So when those 00:13:54.679 --> 00:13:57.659 two teams meet, it's not just for a gold medal. 00:13:58.059 --> 00:14:00.559 It's for national dignity. And it's not just 00:14:00.559 --> 00:14:02.840 Canada. You have the legendary Czech goalie, 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:05.360 Dominik Hasek, warning that with the current 00:14:05.360 --> 00:14:07.879 U .S. president, no one knows what he will do 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:10.820 or say tomorrow. That unpredictability changes 00:14:10.820 --> 00:14:13.440 the whole psychology of the games. It turns beating 00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:16.399 the Americans into a moral imperative. It rallies 00:14:16.399 --> 00:14:18.299 the rest of the world against the U .S. team. 00:14:18.509 --> 00:14:20.330 But the White House would say this is a feature, 00:14:20.470 --> 00:14:22.929 not a bug. Exactly. America first means we don't 00:14:22.929 --> 00:14:25.289 care if you like us as long as we win. They claim 00:14:25.289 --> 00:14:27.490 this assertive approach is paying off in trade 00:14:27.490 --> 00:14:29.850 deals and NATO contributions. But at the Olympics, 00:14:30.049 --> 00:14:32.210 it just looks like a fracture. There is no global 00:14:32.210 --> 00:14:35.370 community in Milan right now. It's just us and 00:14:35.370 --> 00:14:37.929 them. It's a lot to process. When you step back 00:14:37.929 --> 00:14:40.230 and look at the whole board, the Senate, the 00:14:40.230 --> 00:14:44.210 voting laws, the markets, the leaks, the Olympics. 00:14:45.449 --> 00:14:48.110 What's the through line? I see the nationalization 00:14:48.110 --> 00:14:50.429 of everything. Unpack that for me. Well, look 00:14:50.429 --> 00:14:53.389 at it. Elections are being nationalized by federal 00:14:53.389 --> 00:14:56.309 mandates like the SAVE Act. Right. Markets are 00:14:56.309 --> 00:14:59.090 being driven by national industrial policy, buying 00:14:59.090 --> 00:15:02.940 real American assets, even the Olympics, which 00:15:02.940 --> 00:15:05.259 are supposed to be about individual excellence. 00:15:05.340 --> 00:15:08.059 Or being defined by national grievances. There's 00:15:08.059 --> 00:15:11.600 no neutral ground left. None. Every single interaction, 00:15:11.720 --> 00:15:13.799 whether you're casting a vote, buying a stock, 00:15:13.879 --> 00:15:16.500 or watching a biathlon, is now viewed through 00:15:16.500 --> 00:15:18.799 the lens of this intense political conflict. 00:15:19.019 --> 00:15:20.659 And that brings us right back to where we started. 00:15:21.080 --> 00:15:23.480 The Senate. Because if everything is nationalized, 00:15:23.600 --> 00:15:25.539 then who runs the nation matters more than anything 00:15:25.539 --> 00:15:27.700 else. Precisely. And here's the provocative thought 00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:30.340 to leave you with. If those panikins are right, 00:15:30.600 --> 00:15:33.220 if the polls in Texas and Maine are actually 00:15:33.220 --> 00:15:35.639 accurate, and the Senate flips to the Democrats 00:15:35.639 --> 00:15:38.139 in November. What happens to all of this? The 00:15:38.139 --> 00:15:40.559 entire America First agenda just hits a brick 00:15:40.559 --> 00:15:44.279 wall. Complete gridlock. Utter gridlock. The 00:15:44.279 --> 00:15:46.940 legislative strategy, the appointments, the budget 00:15:46.940 --> 00:15:49.940 for these crackdowns, it all changes overnight. 00:15:50.080 --> 00:15:51.620 That fragility we talked about at the beginning, 00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:54.519 it is very real. The next nine months could determine 00:15:54.519 --> 00:15:57.100 the trajectory of the country for the next decade. 00:15:57.309 --> 00:15:58.850 Something to think about while you're watching 00:15:58.850 --> 00:16:02.250 the opening ceremony. If you're up late or early, 00:16:03.009 --> 00:16:05.889 enjoy the show from Sans Hero. Keep an eye on 00:16:05.889 --> 00:16:09.110 the real stuff in your portfolio and maybe double 00:16:09.110 --> 00:16:10.909 check your voter registration while you're at 00:16:10.909 --> 00:16:13.509 it. Couldn't hurt. Thanks for listening. We'll 00:16:13.509 --> 00:16:14.590 see you in the next deep dive.