Welcome back to the Deep Dive. It's Friday, February
6th, 2026. And that date usually means one big
thing. Exactly. The Winter Olympics. The opening
ceremony is kicking off, well, right now in Milan
at the San Siro Stadium. Right. And that's supposed
to be the moment the whole world just, you know,
takes a collective breath. The Olympic truce.
That's the dream, isn't it? Politics stops. Sports
begin. But looking at the stack of research we
have on the desk today, I'm not really feeling
much of a truce. Not at all. In fact, the tension
that's hanging over that sodium in Italy feels,
it feels eerily similar to the tension hanging
over Washington and Wall Street this morning.
Fragile is the perfect word for it. It feels
like we're walking on eggshells in about four
different directions at once. You've got the
political landscape, which a year ago looked
rock solid. Now it's suddenly showing cracks.
Then you have the financial markets actively
fleeing from the future to run back to the past.
and a government clamping down on the flow of
information in a way we really haven't seen in
decades. So our mission today is to connect these
dots. Yeah, exactly. We need to explain why GOP
strategists are suddenly sweating, why your portfolio
might need a real -world adjustment, and why
the Canada -U .S. hockey game might be the most
hostile event of the year. It is a heavy stack,
but the through line here is uncertainty. When
people, voters, investors, anyone get nervous,
They behave in extreme ways. OK, so let's start
with that political earthquake because this was
the biggest shock in the reading for me. We're
talking about the Senate, right? On paper, Republicans
have a 5347 majority. That should be a fortress.
You don't usually lose a majority that big in
one cycle. No, you don't. And a year ago, the
narrative was the Senate is safe. It was a lock.
But this Axios report we have. Wow, it just completely
changes the temperature in the room. It does.
You have top Republican operatives admitting,
and this is behind closed doors, that retaining
control is far less certain. Far less certain
than they thought. And the reason isn't just,
you know, the pendulum swinging. The report specifically
says that the issues that won the White House
in 2024, immigration, the economy, They're just
not providing the same lift anymore. They're
actually becoming liabilities in some of these
states. That's the key. In 2024, those were the
tailwinds. But now voters are asking, OK, you
won, but did you fix it? And because the answer
is messy. The map is expanding. OK, so where?
I mean, the NRSE, the National Republican Senatorial
Committee, is circulating this slide deck. And
they identify their toughest challenge as Maine.
Susan Collins. Right, Senator Collins. She has
survived everything thrown at her for decades.
But the data shows her path to reelection is
narrower than it's ever been. But Maine isn't
the story that really made me sit up straight.
No, it was Texas. It was Texas. Now. I have to
push back a little here. Go for it. Because I
feel like we hear, Texas is turning blue every
two years. Yeah. It just never happens. Democrats
haven't won a statewide race there in 30 years.
Why is the Texas problem real this time? Because
this time, the call is coming from inside the
House. It's not just Democrats versus Republicans
anymore. It's Republicans versus Republicans.
Exactly. A civil war. You have the incumbent
Senator John Cornyn facing this brutal primary
challenge from the Attorney General Ken Paxton.
And these two? they do not like each other. Oh,
it is nasty. It's personal. It's expensive. And
the fear among the GOP strategists is that this
primary battle is going to leave the winner so
bruised and so broke that the general election
actually becomes a toss -up. So if Cornyn wins,
he's alienated the base. If Paxton wins, he might
be too extreme for the suburbs. You got it. And
that brings us to the money. Because if you suddenly
have to defend a Senate seat in Texas... That
is not a cheap state to advertise in. Not at
all. It's massive. And if the GOP has to dump
tens of millions of dollars into Texas just to
hold the line, that's money they can't spend
in Ohio or Alaska. And, looking at the list...
The Democrats seem to have realized this. They've
recruited actual brands, not just politicians.
Yeah. Sherrod Brown is running again in Ohio.
Mary Peltola in Alaska. These are people who
have already proven they can win in red states.
And then there's Georgia. This is the one that
really highlights the resource problem for me.
The GOP was... desperate for Governor Brian Kemp
to run. He's popular. He's established. And he
said no. So now they're left with a slate of
lesser -known candidates going up against John
Ossoff. And John Ossoff is, well, the numbers
here are just staggering. Does this report say
he has $25 million cash on hand? $25 million.
It's an absolute war chest. The man is a fundraising
machine. So you're a Republican strategist. You're
trying to defend Maine, stop a civil war in Texas,
fight popular incumbents in Ohio and Alaska,
and outspend John Ossoff in Georgia. Suddenly
that 53 -seat majority doesn't feel like a fortress
anymore. No, it feels like a house of cards,
which explains the nickname in the report, the
Panikins. Right. One strategist told the press
to stop bedwetting, but the anxiety is very,
very real. OK, so if you're the party in power
and you see your grip slipping, you don't just
sit there. You try to change the game. You change
the rules of the game. And that brings us to
the legislative side of the stack. The Save America
Act. This is the counter move. If the political
environment is turning against you, you focus
on the mechanics of the election itself. So CVE
stands for Safeguard American Voter Eligibility.
Let's break down what's actually in this bill
because it sounds bureaucratic, but the impact
is huge. Oh, it is. It would require proof of
citizenship to register to vote and not just
checking a box on a form. We're talking a birth
certificate or a passport. It also mandates photo
ID in every single state and it eliminates mail
only registration. And Trump is pushing this
personally. He's framing it as the only way to,
you know, fix. the elections. To his base, this
is just common sense security. But the conflict
comes from the practical reality of that. I mean,
most people don't carry their birth certificate
in their wallet. Right. And Chuck Schumer pointed
out something like half of all Americans don't
even have a valid passport. So the argument from
the Democrats is that this is a stealth way to
just disenfranchise millions of people. Exactly.
If you make the hurdle for registration that
high. You're going to filter out a lot of people,
disproportionately young people, poor people,
and minorities. That's the Democratic view. They
see it as an existential threat to voting rights.
So the House is pushing this hard, but the Senate,
the Democrats still have enough votes to block
it. They can just filibuster. Normally, yes.
But there's a really interesting detail in the
strategy notes here. The hard right is pushing
for a talking filibuster. OK, talking filibuster.
I feel like I learned this in high school civics,
but remind me, and everyone listening, how this
is different. So a modern filibuster is basically
an email. You just signal, you object. And unless
the other side has 60 votes, the bill dies. It's
painless. Right. A talking filibuster is the
old -school Mr. Smith goes to Washington version.
The one where you actually have to stand on the
floor and speak until you collapse? Yes. You
have to hold the floor, talk for hours, for days,
maybe weeks. The idea from the GOP side is, OK,
Democrats, you want to block this. We're going
to make you physically suffer for it on national
TV. It's pure theater. It's high stakes theater.
But Senate Leader John Thune is hesitant. Because
if you do this, the entire Senate just stops.
Nothing else gets done. Nothing. No judges, no
ambassadors. You grind the government to a halt.
So the question is, how much political capital
are they willing to burn? And while they figure
that out, that uncertainty just spills over.
Which brings us to the people who hate uncertainty
the most. The investors. Let's talk about the
money. We have this macro summary from Hedgeye,
and it paints a picture of a market that is...
well, it's scared. It's defensive. They used
a great metaphor. Two sides of the garage. Meaning?
What? The economy and the stock market are completely
disconnected. Exactly. The actual economy, jobs,
GDP, it's fairly resilient. But... The market
stock prices, investor sentiment, it's panicking.
And when the market panics, it retains. So what
are they rotating into? Because for the last
decade, the answer was always buy tech. That
era appears to be pausing, if not completely
ending. The report is brutally bearish on what
they're calling the Bag 7. The Bag 7. That's
new to me. It's a play on the Magnificent 7,
you know, Microsoft, Broadcom, Oracle. They're
basically calling them bag holders now. The signal
is that These stocks are overvalued and the smart
money is getting out. They're actively shorting
software. What about crypto? Usually when people
get scared of the dollar, they run to Bitcoin.
Not this time. The report is explicit. Get out
of crypto. The analysis is that Bitcoin isn't
acting like digital gold. It's not a safe haven.
It's acting like another risky tech stock. So
if tech goes down, crypto goes down with it.
OK, so if you dump tech and you dump crypto,
where does the cash go? You buy real stuff. That's
the theme. Cyclicals. Explain cyclicals for us.
These are companies that move in cycles with
the physical economy. We're talking industrials,
the people who make bulldozers and engines. We're
talking energy, oil and gas exploration. So tangible
assets. Things you can kick. Exactly. If you
can kick it, buy it. The industrial ETF XLI and
the oil and gas one XOP are near all time highs.
People are buying gold, silver, platinum, uranium.
The bet is the digital bubble is bursting and
the physical world is where value lives now.
Is it total back to basics trade? It really is.
And they're also shorting the US dollar. They
are betting against the currency itself and looking
at international markets instead. Japan, Turkey,
Mexico. Wow, that feels significant. Shorting
the dollar and buying gold is usually what you
do when you think something bad is coming. It's
a survival strategy. The advice in the report
is literally, don't chase the moves, wait for
the chop, the volatility, and then buy the things
people actually need. Wait for the chop. Yeah.
Like that. But it's ominous. And speaking of
ominous, let's pivot to the third story. Because
while investors are trying to hide from volatility,
the government seems to be trying to stop information
from getting out at all. The war on leaks. This
one stood out because of the tone. We saw this
headline about DHS secretary Kristi Noem. She
went on X and posted about catching a leaker,
but it wasn't just a press release. It fell.
Yes. Almost boastful. It was. She said they caught
another prolific leaker and referred them for
criminal prosecution. But then she added this
little line at the end. A journalist is now down
another source. Oh, down another source. That
frames the press as the enemy. Not just the leaker.
Precisely. And that's why press freedom groups
like the Committee to Protect Journalists are
ringing the alarm bells they're calling this
terrifying. Because it's not just one tweet,
it's a pattern. It's a pattern across the entire
administration. We've seen the Department of
Justice end the policy that protected journalists
from subpoenas. Right. And Attorney General Pam
Bondi is aggressively seizing phone records to
hunt down sources. The FBI searched a Washington
Post reporter's home. Which is incredibly rare.
That's a massive escalation. And DNI Tulsi Gabbard
has announced multiple criminal referrals. Now,
to be fair, the administration's argument is
that leaking classified information is a crime.
Right. Secretary Noem cited an 8000 percent increase.
in death threats against DHS officials. 8 ,000%.
That's the number she used. And if that's true,
you can understand the defensive posture. They
argue these leaks endanger the lives of law enforcement.
What the press advocates would say. What? They'd
say these leaks aren't about nuclear codes. They're
about public interest. I mean, look at what's
been leaked recently. I see claiming authority
to enter homes without warrants. Surveillance
tools sweeping up massive amounts of citizen
data. And DHS labeling protesters as domestic
terrorists. Exactly. So the argument is that
these leaks are the only way the public knows
what the government is actually doing? If you
prosecute every leaker and subpoena every journalist,
you create a chilling effect. And sources go
silent? And when sources go silent, the only
narrative that exists is the one the government
approves of. It's all about control. Which brings
us, finally. to the place where narrative control
is usually the name of the game. The Olympics.
Milan. It's supposed to be a celebration. But
reading the reports from the ground, the vibe
is not a party. No, the source material describes
Trump's shadow looming over the entire event.
And practically that shadow looks like Vice President
J .D. Vance. Trump isn't attending. No, he sent
Vance, which is a statement in itself, given
Vance's public criticism of European leaders.
But the real friction isn't in the VIP box. It's
on the ground. Oh, so. There are reports of ISIS
agents, U .S. immigration officials providing
security for the U .S. delegation in Italy. Wait,
ISIS agents are operating in Italy? Yes. And
that has sparked what the sources are calling
widespread fury. Having a controversial U .S.
domestic law enforcement agency patrolling an
international sporting event? It's rubbing a
lot of people the wrong way. And that tension
is bleeding onto the ice. I was looking at the
notes on the Canada rivalry. Yeah. I mean, U
.S. versus Canada and hockey is usually a friendly
rivalry. Our neighbors to the north. Not this
year. Remember the four nations face off. Canadian
fans booed the U .S. anthem. And it wasn't because
of a bad call. It was because of the 51st state
comments. Right. Trump called the U .S. locker
room and joked about Canada being the 51st state.
Which, to a Canadian, is not a joke. It's a threat
to their sovereignty. A Canadian MP, Charlie
Angus, said, and I quote, It is no longer a game.
He called the rhetoric unhinged. So when those
two teams meet, it's not just for a gold medal.
It's for national dignity. And it's not just
Canada. You have the legendary Czech goalie,
Dominik Hasek, warning that with the current
U .S. president, no one knows what he will do
or say tomorrow. That unpredictability changes
the whole psychology of the games. It turns beating
the Americans into a moral imperative. It rallies
the rest of the world against the U .S. team.
But the White House would say this is a feature,
not a bug. Exactly. America first means we don't
care if you like us as long as we win. They claim
this assertive approach is paying off in trade
deals and NATO contributions. But at the Olympics,
it just looks like a fracture. There is no global
community in Milan right now. It's just us and
them. It's a lot to process. When you step back
and look at the whole board, the Senate, the
voting laws, the markets, the leaks, the Olympics.
What's the through line? I see the nationalization
of everything. Unpack that for me. Well, look
at it. Elections are being nationalized by federal
mandates like the SAVE Act. Right. Markets are
being driven by national industrial policy, buying
real American assets, even the Olympics, which
are supposed to be about individual excellence.
Or being defined by national grievances. There's
no neutral ground left. None. Every single interaction,
whether you're casting a vote, buying a stock,
or watching a biathlon, is now viewed through
the lens of this intense political conflict.
And that brings us right back to where we started.
The Senate. Because if everything is nationalized,
then who runs the nation matters more than anything
else. Precisely. And here's the provocative thought
to leave you with. If those panikins are right,
if the polls in Texas and Maine are actually
accurate, and the Senate flips to the Democrats
in November. What happens to all of this? The
entire America First agenda just hits a brick
wall. Complete gridlock. Utter gridlock. The
legislative strategy, the appointments, the budget
for these crackdowns, it all changes overnight.
That fragility we talked about at the beginning,
it is very real. The next nine months could determine
the trajectory of the country for the next decade.
Something to think about while you're watching
the opening ceremony. If you're up late or early,
enjoy the show from Sans Hero. Keep an eye on
the real stuff in your portfolio and maybe double
check your voter registration while you're at
it. Couldn't hurt. Thanks for listening. We'll
see you in the next deep dive.