WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.160 Welcome back to The Deep Dive. It is Monday, 00:00:03.220 --> 00:00:06.339 February 2nd, 2026. And I think we all know what 00:00:06.339 --> 00:00:08.740 that means. It is officially Groundhog Day. It 00:00:08.740 --> 00:00:11.880 is. But honestly, looking at the absolute mountain 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:14.099 of sources we have on the desk today, it feels 00:00:14.099 --> 00:00:16.179 like the news cycle itself is stuck in that movie. 00:00:16.420 --> 00:00:18.620 Right. We're waking up to the same themes we've 00:00:18.620 --> 00:00:21.719 seen for years just repeating over and over. 00:00:21.899 --> 00:00:25.440 Government shutdowns, massive document dumps, 00:00:25.760 --> 00:00:29.170 constitutional battles. It really does feel like 00:00:29.170 --> 00:00:31.489 a loop. It does. And our job today is to try 00:00:31.489 --> 00:00:33.350 and hit pause on that machine for a second and 00:00:33.350 --> 00:00:35.070 actually look at what's going on underneath all 00:00:35.070 --> 00:00:37.229 that noise. Because the noise is deafening right 00:00:37.229 --> 00:00:39.530 now. Oh, absolutely. We have a huge new release 00:00:39.530 --> 00:00:42.310 of three million pages of Epstein files. We have 00:00:42.310 --> 00:00:45.170 the arrest of a high profile journalist, a really 00:00:45.170 --> 00:00:47.530 strange special election result out of Texas. 00:00:47.810 --> 00:00:49.929 And yes, we are actually going to look at the 00:00:49.929 --> 00:00:52.729 statistics behind a certain weather predicting 00:00:52.729 --> 00:00:55.429 rodent. It's a mix of the heavy, the concerning, 00:00:55.969 --> 00:00:59.920 and the bizarre. So the mission today is to find 00:00:59.920 --> 00:01:01.640 the signal in the noise. Let's start with the 00:01:01.640 --> 00:01:04.299 loudest one, the Epstein files. This is a heavy 00:01:04.299 --> 00:01:06.540 one. And before we get into the grim details, 00:01:06.599 --> 00:01:09.159 and they are grim, we have to look at the meta 00:01:09.159 --> 00:01:12.799 context, why these files right now. Yeah, the 00:01:12.799 --> 00:01:15.099 sources suggest something they call a distraction 00:01:15.099 --> 00:01:17.280 war. A distraction war. Yeah. Essentially a tit 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:19.659 for tat between political rivals. The allegation 00:01:19.659 --> 00:01:22.000 is that the administration hyped up an immigration 00:01:22.000 --> 00:01:24.579 story in Minneapolis to distract from the economy. 00:01:24.829 --> 00:01:28.430 And in response, the DOJ drops this massive tranche, 00:01:28.730 --> 00:01:31.430 3 million pages, all these videos and images 00:01:31.430 --> 00:01:34.189 to pull the focus right back. It's a really cynical 00:01:34.189 --> 00:01:36.450 view, isn't it? Just making the public look left 00:01:36.450 --> 00:01:38.989 then right until we're all too dizzy to see what's 00:01:38.989 --> 00:01:41.930 happening. It is. But here's the thing. Regardless 00:01:41.930 --> 00:01:45.549 of the motive or the timing, The contents of 00:01:45.549 --> 00:01:47.769 these files are just too significant. You can't 00:01:47.769 --> 00:01:49.849 ignore them just because the timing feels suspect. 00:01:49.950 --> 00:01:52.010 Right. You have to separate the delivery from 00:01:52.010 --> 00:01:54.109 the package. So let's unpack it. There's one 00:01:54.109 --> 00:01:57.129 specific FBI memo from 2016 about Donald Trump 00:01:57.129 --> 00:01:59.250 that's getting all the attention. It is. And 00:01:59.250 --> 00:02:01.530 we need to be really precise here. Because FBI 00:02:01.530 --> 00:02:04.370 memo sounds so definitive. It sounds like a smoking 00:02:04.370 --> 00:02:07.629 gun, but it's more nuanced. These are allegations 00:02:07.629 --> 00:02:10.849 in a file, not a criminal conviction. The file 00:02:10.849 --> 00:02:13.830 details a report from a lawyer about a Jane Doe. 00:02:14.030 --> 00:02:16.629 And the details in the source are incredibly 00:02:16.629 --> 00:02:19.069 specific. It says this girl was, what, 13 years 00:02:19.069 --> 00:02:22.469 old? 13. Recruited for a modeling career, flown 00:02:22.469 --> 00:02:25.810 to New York on a buddy pass, and given $500 to 00:02:25.810 --> 00:02:28.530 attend parties. And that's just the setup. That's 00:02:28.530 --> 00:02:32.090 the setup. The memo describes a progression that, 00:02:32.090 --> 00:02:34.110 you know, fits a pattern we've seen in other 00:02:34.110 --> 00:02:36.969 cases. At the first party, she was allegedly 00:02:36.969 --> 00:02:39.449 asked to massage Epstein. Right, the entry point. 00:02:39.669 --> 00:02:42.590 But the allegations escalate very quickly to 00:02:42.590 --> 00:02:44.919 involve the former president. The memo states 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:47.360 she was assaulted by both men at a series of 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:50.240 parties. And the file is not vague. It mentions 00:02:50.240 --> 00:02:53.800 specific acts, vaginal and anal rape and threats. 00:02:54.039 --> 00:02:56.240 The quotes are chilling. Things like, we'll make 00:02:56.240 --> 00:02:58.800 you disappear. It also puts Ghislaine Maxwell 00:02:58.800 --> 00:03:00.900 at the center of it, giving a tour of Mar -a 00:03:00.900 --> 00:03:03.120 -Lago, presenting this girl like she was a commodity. 00:03:03.379 --> 00:03:06.219 It's incredibly disturbing to read. But we have 00:03:06.219 --> 00:03:08.500 to look at the other side of the document. The 00:03:08.500 --> 00:03:10.879 FBI notes in the file that they did not verify 00:03:10.879 --> 00:03:13.800 these tips at the time. They were recorded, but 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:15.639 not fully investigated. They could be second 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:17.639 -hand reports from the lawyer. And Trump has 00:03:17.639 --> 00:03:20.680 denied all of it. Vigorously. The source also 00:03:20.680 --> 00:03:22.800 notes that this Jane Doe was supposed to hold 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:26.759 a press conference back in 2016 about these claims, 00:03:27.280 --> 00:03:30.280 but she failed to appear. Because she was afraid. 00:03:30.400 --> 00:03:32.860 That's the claim. So we're left with this horrific 00:03:32.860 --> 00:03:35.379 allegation in an official file, but one that 00:03:35.379 --> 00:03:37.879 was never fully proven. It sits in that gray 00:03:37.879 --> 00:03:41.050 area between intelligence and fact. And Trump 00:03:41.050 --> 00:03:43.729 isn't the only name in these three million pages. 00:03:43.870 --> 00:03:46.370 It feels like a who's who of the global elite. 00:03:46.569 --> 00:03:49.370 It really is. The scope of his network was just 00:03:49.370 --> 00:03:51.289 massive. For instance, there's an email where 00:03:51.289 --> 00:03:53.569 Epstein claims he helped Bill Gates acquire drugs. 00:03:53.710 --> 00:03:55.689 Sorry, drugs. Like, what kind of drugs are we 00:03:55.689 --> 00:03:57.530 talking about? The implication is recreational. 00:03:58.150 --> 00:04:00.289 The email claims it was to help Gates deal with 00:04:00.289 --> 00:04:03.409 the consequences of sex with Russian girls. Wow. 00:04:03.669 --> 00:04:05.550 I mean, that really changes the public image 00:04:05.550 --> 00:04:09.069 of the philanthropic tech founder. It does. Now 00:04:09.069 --> 00:04:12.250 to be fair, Gates has vigorously denied this. 00:04:12.650 --> 00:04:14.449 And the source material offers an interesting 00:04:14.449 --> 00:04:18.189 theory. They speculate Epstein might have planted 00:04:18.189 --> 00:04:21.279 that email on his own computer. Yeah. As blackmail 00:04:21.279 --> 00:04:23.720 material. A breaking case of emergency file. 00:04:23.879 --> 00:04:26.060 Exactly. Even if it wasn't true, just having 00:04:26.060 --> 00:04:29.779 the email creates leverage. It's classic blackmailer, 00:04:29.839 --> 00:04:32.339 most operandi. Who else is in there? Elon Musk 00:04:32.339 --> 00:04:35.060 appears. There are emails comparing schedules, 00:04:35.139 --> 00:04:37.560 but then there's one where Musk asks, quote, 00:04:37.879 --> 00:04:40.360 What daynight will be the wildest party on your 00:04:40.360 --> 00:04:43.079 island? Wildest party. That's not asking about 00:04:43.079 --> 00:04:45.060 the catering option. Well, it implies a certain 00:04:45.060 --> 00:04:47.420 expectation. Then you have Howard Lutnick, the 00:04:47.420 --> 00:04:49.500 current Secretary of Commerce. OK. The files 00:04:49.500 --> 00:04:52.079 show he planned a visit. And his response is 00:04:52.079 --> 00:04:55.060 interesting. Unlike Gates, who denied it, Lutnick 00:04:55.060 --> 00:04:57.360 just said he hasn't seen the documents. The classic 00:04:57.360 --> 00:04:59.980 non -denial denial. Can't comment on what I haven't 00:04:59.980 --> 00:05:02.600 read. Precisely. It buys time. And then there's 00:05:02.600 --> 00:05:05.000 Leon Black, the private equity billionaire. He 00:05:05.000 --> 00:05:09.899 paid Epstein $170 million. For what? Tax and 00:05:09.899 --> 00:05:12.959 estate planning. $170 million. I mean, you'd 00:05:12.959 --> 00:05:15.720 think he could just use TurboTax for $150, right? 00:05:15.720 --> 00:05:18.160 You would think. That number is staggering. And 00:05:18.160 --> 00:05:20.439 it raises all sorts of questions about what those 00:05:20.439 --> 00:05:23.339 services actually were. Right. Was it tax advice 00:05:23.339 --> 00:05:27.060 or was it hush money? We don't know. And what's 00:05:27.060 --> 00:05:29.139 making it harder to know is the redaction situation. 00:05:29.560 --> 00:05:32.699 Ah, yeah. This is becoming its own standal. The 00:05:32.699 --> 00:05:35.040 law says you can redact victim names to protect 00:05:35.040 --> 00:05:37.430 them. That's ethical. Of course. But we're seeing 00:05:37.430 --> 00:05:40.110 these huge blackouts that seem to be protecting 00:05:40.110 --> 00:05:43.470 the perpetrators. And to make it worse, due to 00:05:43.470 --> 00:05:46.189 what looks like incompetence, some victim names 00:05:46.189 --> 00:05:48.839 were accidentally left visible. So the people 00:05:48.839 --> 00:05:51.860 who need protection are exposed and the powerful 00:05:51.860 --> 00:05:54.720 are hidden. It's a mess. Representative Jamie 00:05:54.720 --> 00:05:57.259 Raskin called it a full -blown cover -up. It 00:05:57.259 --> 00:05:59.379 just feeds that cynical loop we talked about. 00:05:59.800 --> 00:06:01.860 Speaking of systems and messengers, let's pivot 00:06:01.860 --> 00:06:04.319 to the arrest of Don Lemon. This was just a couple 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:06.879 of weeks ago. And this is a really significant 00:06:06.879 --> 00:06:09.379 escalation for freedom of the press. The sequence 00:06:09.379 --> 00:06:12.939 of events is just highly unusual. So Don Lemon, 00:06:13.220 --> 00:06:15.300 he's operating as an independent journalist now. 00:06:15.480 --> 00:06:18.240 Right. He was fired from CNN. He's out on his 00:06:18.240 --> 00:06:20.240 own doing his own thing. And he's covering a 00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:22.860 protest. Where was this? At a church in Minnesota. 00:06:23.480 --> 00:06:26.699 And the story was that the pastor of this church 00:06:26.699 --> 00:06:30.240 was also an active ICE agent. Which is a story 00:06:30.240 --> 00:06:32.959 in itself. It is. So Lemon follows the protesters 00:06:32.959 --> 00:06:35.660 into the church to document it. And Attorney 00:06:35.660 --> 00:06:38.339 General Pam Bondi orders his arrest. OK, but 00:06:38.339 --> 00:06:41.079 here's where it gets strange, right? She didn't 00:06:41.079 --> 00:06:44.269 just have him arrested on the spot? No. And this 00:06:44.269 --> 00:06:46.149 is the part that has legal scholars worried. 00:06:46.790 --> 00:06:49.370 She went to a magistrate judge for a warrant. 00:06:50.350 --> 00:06:53.670 The judge refused. Why? Lack of evidence. So 00:06:53.670 --> 00:06:55.449 then she goes to the chief judge of the Minnesota 00:06:55.449 --> 00:06:57.670 Federal District Court. And? The chief judge 00:06:57.670 --> 00:07:00.910 also refused, explicitly said there was no evidence 00:07:00.910 --> 00:07:03.370 of a crime. So two federal judges looked at this 00:07:03.370 --> 00:07:06.420 and said no case. Correct. But Bondi didn't stop. 00:07:06.639 --> 00:07:08.540 She took it to a grand jury to get an indictment. 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:10.860 Which is much easier. You can indict a ham sandwich, 00:07:11.000 --> 00:07:13.000 as they say. Exactly. And then she went on ex 00:07:13.000 --> 00:07:15.480 -formerly Twitter and bragged about directing 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:17.379 the arrest. It feels like they were just shopping 00:07:17.379 --> 00:07:19.800 for a legal justification to put him in handcuffs. 00:07:20.139 --> 00:07:23.000 That is exactly the implication. It's judge shopping 00:07:23.000 --> 00:07:26.889 for a political outcome. You have a high -profile 00:07:26.889 --> 00:07:29.629 black journalist reporting on a sensitive topic. 00:07:29.889 --> 00:07:31.930 And the attorney general just forces an arrest, 00:07:32.250 --> 00:07:34.529 despite judicial pushback. The reaction has been 00:07:34.529 --> 00:07:37.350 loud. Lemon hired Abbey Lowell, a top -tier defense 00:07:37.350 --> 00:07:39.629 attorney. And he said he's not backing down. 00:07:39.829 --> 00:07:44.610 His statement was, I will not stop ever. Even 00:07:44.610 --> 00:07:48.029 CNN, who fired him, called the arrest profoundly 00:07:48.029 --> 00:07:50.829 concerning. Amnesty International called it an 00:07:50.829 --> 00:07:53.720 authoritarian practice. It really raises a chilling 00:07:53.720 --> 00:07:56.300 question for you listening. If they can do this 00:07:56.300 --> 00:07:59.060 to Don Lemon with all his resources, what happens 00:07:59.060 --> 00:08:01.500 to a local reporter who annoys the wrong official? 00:08:01.779 --> 00:08:03.839 That's the chilling effect. It's about sending 00:08:03.839 --> 00:08:06.319 a message. So we have the DOJ releasing files 00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:08.000 and arresting journalists. And meanwhile, the 00:08:08.000 --> 00:08:10.459 government itself is partially shutting down. 00:08:10.860 --> 00:08:13.660 Again, it really is. So this started Saturday 00:08:13.660 --> 00:08:16.560 at a second past midnight. What's the snag this 00:08:16.560 --> 00:08:18.680 time? It feels tactical. Purely tactical. It's 00:08:18.680 --> 00:08:21.470 the minibus. The Senate passed a bill funding 00:08:21.470 --> 00:08:24.329 96 % of the government, almost everything. But 00:08:24.329 --> 00:08:26.389 they carved out the Department of Homeland Security 00:08:26.389 --> 00:08:29.930 DHS and only gave it two weeks of funding. Why 00:08:29.930 --> 00:08:32.870 just two weeks for DHS? Why put them on such 00:08:32.870 --> 00:08:35.450 a short leash? Leverage. The House wasn't in 00:08:35.450 --> 00:08:38.029 session, so we hit a technical shutdown. But 00:08:38.029 --> 00:08:40.370 the strategy from the Democrats is to use this 00:08:40.370 --> 00:08:43.909 short leash on DHS to negotiate changes to ICE. 00:08:44.190 --> 00:08:47.269 What kind of changes? Not just budget cuts. Operational 00:08:47.269 --> 00:08:51.049 reforms, no masks for officers, mandatory body 00:08:51.049 --> 00:08:53.850 cams, and this is key warrants required to enter 00:08:53.850 --> 00:08:56.190 homes. Wait, hold on. Warrants aren't required 00:08:56.190 --> 00:08:58.710 now? In many operations, they rely on consent, 00:08:59.149 --> 00:09:01.509 which can be coerced. They want to make warrants 00:09:01.509 --> 00:09:03.639 a hard requirement. So they're in a win -win. 00:09:03.820 --> 00:09:06.299 They either get the reforms or ICU shuts down. 00:09:06.320 --> 00:09:08.610 That's the play. They're playing hardball and 00:09:08.610 --> 00:09:11.049 all this gridlock is having real world consequences, 00:09:11.110 --> 00:09:13.929 which brings us to Texas. Yes, the Texas surprise, 00:09:14.070 --> 00:09:15.990 this special election for State Senate District 00:09:15.990 --> 00:09:18.649 9. The numbers here are just wild. This is a 00:09:18.649 --> 00:09:20.590 data point that should be setting off alarm bells 00:09:20.590 --> 00:09:23.809 for Republican strategists. The Democrat, Taylor 00:09:23.809 --> 00:09:26.129 Remit, beat the Trump endorsed candidate Lee 00:09:26.129 --> 00:09:28.769 Wamskans, and it wasn't close. It was a blowout. 00:09:28.950 --> 00:09:31.850 57 percent to 42 percent. Right. But the context 00:09:31.850 --> 00:09:34.970 is everything. This district is in Tarrant County. 00:09:35.179 --> 00:09:38.740 historically deep red. This result is a 32 -point 00:09:38.740 --> 00:09:42.340 swing toward the Democrats from 2024. A 32 -point 00:09:42.340 --> 00:09:44.919 swing? That's a political earthquake, not just 00:09:44.919 --> 00:09:48.159 a loss. And the candidate he beat? Womstands? 00:09:48.740 --> 00:09:50.840 The source paints quite a picture. She works 00:09:50.840 --> 00:09:53.139 for Patriot Mobile. The Christian conservative 00:09:53.139 --> 00:09:56.179 wireless provider. The very same. Their website 00:09:56.179 --> 00:09:58.519 loops videos of soldiers and people shooting 00:09:58.519 --> 00:10:01.019 guns, and the FAQ has a section on whether your 00:10:01.019 --> 00:10:04.110 money goes to woke You cannot make this stuff 00:10:04.110 --> 00:10:06.850 up. So you have a candidate who is the embodiment 00:10:06.850 --> 00:10:09.730 of that very specific culture war brand getting 00:10:09.730 --> 00:10:12.350 crushed in a Republican district. It suggests 00:10:12.350 --> 00:10:14.590 that brand might be becoming toxic even where 00:10:14.590 --> 00:10:17.029 it should be safe at. And that aligns perfectly 00:10:17.029 --> 00:10:19.450 with the new Pew Research polling from late January. 00:10:19.639 --> 00:10:21.620 The numbers are looking pretty rough for the 00:10:21.620 --> 00:10:23.759 former president. His approval is down to 37 00:10:23.759 --> 00:10:26.440 percent. His support among voters under 30 has 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:29.059 collapsed to 30 percent. And maybe the most damning 00:10:29.059 --> 00:10:31.860 stat, only 21 percent say his actions have been 00:10:31.860 --> 00:10:34.899 better than expected. Ouch. Only one in five 00:10:34.899 --> 00:10:37.940 people think he's exceeding expectations. Exactly. 00:10:39.039 --> 00:10:41.000 When you connect all these dots, the distraction 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:43.620 tactics, the legal fights, the dysfunction, these 00:10:43.620 --> 00:10:46.429 election results. You see a public that might 00:10:46.429 --> 00:10:48.309 just be getting tired of the show. Which brings 00:10:48.309 --> 00:10:50.710 us back to the only show that matters today. 00:10:51.610 --> 00:10:54.929 Bung Satani Phil. The actual Groundhog Day. We 00:10:54.929 --> 00:10:57.309 have to talk about the stats here. Is he actually 00:10:57.309 --> 00:11:00.730 any good at meteorology? Statistically, no. He 00:11:00.730 --> 00:11:04.029 is terrible at his job. Objectively bad. How 00:11:04.029 --> 00:11:06.289 bad are you talking? His accuracy rate is around 00:11:06.289 --> 00:11:09.110 39 to 40 percent. You are literally better off 00:11:09.110 --> 00:11:11.309 flipping a coin. So whatever he says, just assume 00:11:11.309 --> 00:11:14.190 the opposite. Pretty much. And he's a pessimist. 00:11:14.269 --> 00:11:18.009 He has predicted six more weeks of winter over 00:11:18.009 --> 00:11:20.830 a hundred times and an early spring only about 00:11:20.830 --> 00:11:24.309 20 times Maybe he just likes sleeping in perhaps, 00:11:24.309 --> 00:11:26.690 but the lore is what makes it fun, right? The 00:11:26.690 --> 00:11:29.549 elixir of life. Yes The legend says there's only 00:11:29.549 --> 00:11:32.769 one fill one immortal groundhog kept alive since 00:11:32.769 --> 00:11:35.970 1887 by a secret punch. He drinks at a summer 00:11:35.970 --> 00:11:38.590 picnic That's some powerful punch and don't forget 00:11:38.590 --> 00:11:41.129 the inner circle the guys in top hats who claim 00:11:41.129 --> 00:11:43.840 to speak ground hoagies Through an ancient acacia 00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:47.039 wood cane, of course. Of course. Yeah. It's absurd, 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:50.679 it's theatrical, and it is completely unscientific. 00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:53.080 So what was the call this morning? He saw his 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:55.639 shadow? Six more weeks of winter? Of course he 00:11:55.639 --> 00:11:58.500 did. He loves that call. But, you know, if you 00:11:58.500 --> 00:12:01.399 connect this to everything else, we've spent 00:12:01.399 --> 00:12:04.200 this whole time talking about opaque systems. 00:12:04.559 --> 00:12:06.899 Redacted files where we can't see the names, 00:12:07.299 --> 00:12:10.370 legal proceedings where judges are ignored. a 00:12:10.370 --> 00:12:12.389 government funding process that happens at midnight, 00:12:13.129 --> 00:12:15.389 and a groundhog speaking a secret language to 00:12:15.389 --> 00:12:17.929 man in top hats. It feels like we're just observers 00:12:17.929 --> 00:12:20.110 of these rituals that we don't understand and 00:12:20.110 --> 00:12:22.149 certainly don't control. That's the feeling. 00:12:22.610 --> 00:12:24.649 Whether it's the distraction war or the theater 00:12:24.649 --> 00:12:27.309 of a shutdown, we're often just the audience. 00:12:27.690 --> 00:12:30.629 So here's a thought to leave you with. We know 00:12:30.629 --> 00:12:33.549 statistically that the groundhog is wrong, worse 00:12:33.549 --> 00:12:36.470 than a coin flip. Yet every year we tune in and 00:12:36.470 --> 00:12:39.340 we play along. And it raises the question. Why 00:12:39.340 --> 00:12:42.340 do we cling to rituals that don't work? And more 00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:44.340 importantly, when we look at the political rituals 00:12:44.340 --> 00:12:46.620 we discussed, the shutdowns, the distraction 00:12:46.620 --> 00:12:49.220 dumps, are we just as stuck in that loop? Are 00:12:49.220 --> 00:12:51.940 we waiting for an early spring in our politics 00:12:51.940 --> 00:12:54.519 that the data says just isn't coming? Something 00:12:54.519 --> 00:12:56.820 to think about while you bundle up for six more 00:12:56.820 --> 00:12:59.000 weeks of winter. Thanks for taking the dive with 00:12:59.000 --> 00:12:59.179 us.